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Welcome to the Week 17 edition of Picks and Plays for OwnersBox. Here I’ll be highlighting some of my favorite plays for their SuperFlex Salary Cap game, a revolutionary new way to play fantasy football that brings a new strategic alternative to the traditional season-long formats and daily fantasy games.

Not yet a member of Ownersbox? Click the button below to join using promo code WINDAILY to get a $25 bonus after your first deposit as well as a free entry into their $15k weekly NFL tournament.

As we get closer to the end of the year, some of the things we’ll want to keep an eye on our narratives.  Which teams are still in the hunt?  Are there players close to hitting their bonuses?  Which players are potentially playing their last game for their respective teams?

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some players that will take us to the top.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson $6.6k vs. Detroit Lions – To say this season has been a disappointment for Russell Wilson would be quite the understatement.  He’s missed time due to injury and he’s on pace to have one of his worst statistical seasons.  His name has started to pop up in numerous trade rumors and there is a very real chance that Sunday afternoon’s game against the Lions is the final time he’ll play in Seattle as a Seahawk. 

He could not have asked for a better matchup for his potential swan song.  The Lions have really struggled against the pass this season.  They’ve given up more than 300 yards to QB’s 5 times and haven’t had a week with no receiving touchdowns since week against the Eagles.  In what is potentially his last home game as a Seahawk, Wilson is one of my favorite QB’s in week 17.  Look for him to throw early and often in this one.

Matt Stafford $7.6k vs. Baltimore Ravens – If you rostered Stafford last weekend you walked away with a dirty taste in your mouth.  Going into the week he was the stone-cold chalk against the Vikings.  My hope here is that it lowers his ownership as he gets a tasty matchup this week.  Ravens just got torched for over 500 yards passing last week against Joe Burrow and the Bengals.  Look, I’m not going to say that Stafford is going to get anywhere near 500 yards passing. 

What I do know is that he’s going to take full advantage of a secondary that’s been absolutely decimated by injuries throughout the 2021 season.  No team in the NFL has given up more passing yards than the Ravens.  It’s been a struggle for them week in and week out.  They’ve given up greater than 400 yards 4 times.  That’s just downright bad.  I fully expect Stafford to rebound from his poor performance last week and be one of the top-performing QB’s in week 17.

Running Backs

David Montgomery $6.8k vs. New York Giants – Growing up as a Giants fan it pains me to see what’s happened to this franchise.  It doesn’t pain me enough to gloss over a juicy matchup.  Only a handful of teams have given up more rushing yards this season than the Giants.  On Sunday, I want to exploit that and I’m going to do just that with David Montgomery.  Over the last 7 weeks, the Giants have given up greater than 100 rushing yards 5 times to running backs. 

In 3 straight weeks, they’ve given up more than 120.  They’ve also given up at least 4 receptions to running backs in each of the last 3 weeks.  This all sets up beautifully for Montgomery as he thrives in situations where he can catch the ball.  Montgomery has one of the best matchups of any running back this weekend and I’ll be sure to lock him into my lineups.

Ronald Jones $6k vs. New York Jets – I talked about the solid matchup that Montgomery had, Ronald Jones gets just as good if not better matchup.  No team has given up more rushing touchdowns this season than the Jets as they’ve given up 22.  The next closest team is Houston with 18.  Running backs have their way with the Jets and Ronald Jones will also have his way with the Jets. 

Jones filled in admirably last week for Fournette with 65 rushing yards and 1 touchdown against a slightly tougher opponent in the Panthers.  With Fournette on the IR, Jones will get the bulk of the carries again and stands as good of a chance to get a touchdown as anyone else in week 17.

Rex Burkhead $5.3k vs. San Francisco 49ers – Rex Burkhead is having a career year.  He’s set career highs in rushing yards and attempts, and he’s just 2 touchdowns shy of tying his career-high of 5.  Last week he had arguably the finest game of his career filling in for David Johnson as he rushed for 149 yards on 20 carries. 

While I doubt he comes close to that production this week against a much tougher 49ers defense, I do expect him to continue to contribute and he’s very affordable.  Should David Johnson miss week 17, I like Burkhead’s chances of reaching value this week and helping us afford some of the more expensive players.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp $8.1k/Odell Beckham $5.9k/Van Jefferson $5.1k vs. Baltimore Ravens – If using Stafford this weekend, I’ll want to make sure to pair him with one of his wide receivers.  I don’t need to sell you on Cooper Kupp.  He’s having an MVP and historic type of season.  Kupp is an excellent play anytime he steps on the field.  That said, he’s extremely expensive and you’ll have to sacrifice in other spots to play him. 

An affordable way to stack your lineup with Stafford this weekend is with either Odell Beckham or Van Jefferson.  Over the last 4 weeks, Beckham has 23 targets while Jefferson has 19.  There’s not much difference in production between the 2 and if I had to pick I’d go with Jefferson to get the $800 savings.  All three of these guys have the potential to have monster games this weekend.  Lock and Load with the guy you can afford.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling $4.9k vs. Minnesota Vikings – MVS is a very boom or bust play.  He can burn your lineup as easily as he can get you to the top of the leaderboards. With him returning this weekend after a bout with COVID, I like his chances of returning value at this price point.  Against this same team in week 11 MVS was targeted a season-high 10 times and went for 123 yards, also a season-high.  The Vikings are an awful team against the pass, regardless of what happened last weekend vs. the Rams.  I love MVS this weekend and he’ll be one of my locks. 

Braxton Berrios $4.5k vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – We need a cheap flyer to afford our expensive pieces.  Braxton Berrios hasn’t done a whole lot this year, well at least when they’ve been fully healthy.  Should Crowder miss week 17 I really like Berrios.  When Crowder has missed action this season, Berrios has played a more significant role in the offense. 

In weeks 1 and 2 he saw a combined 18 targets.  This past weekend he saw 6 and was able to catch 5 of them.  His 25 routes run were the most he’s had since week 3.  It also helps that he returns kicks as there’s always a chance of a return touchdown like he had last weekend.  Not a safe play by any means, but if you’re a GPP player like me, you need to take some risks. 

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews $6.9k vs. Los Angeles Rams – Mark Andrews has proved over the last few weeks that the QB throwing to him just doesn’t matter.  He’s going to find open spaces and he’s going to catch whatever is thrown at him.  The Ravens are currently on the bubble of the playoffs and essentially need to win out the rest of the way.  If they have any chance of doing that they’ll need Andrews to continue his torrid stretch.  The good news for Andrews and the Ravens is that they should get back either Jackson or Huntley this weekend.  

Gerald Everett $4.9k vs. Detroit Lions – While the big names of the receiving corps on the Seahawks are Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, the route I’m taking with Wilson this weekend is to pair him with Gerald Everett.  The Lions have been very susceptible against tight ends this season.  Only three teams have given up more receiving yards to tight ends this season than the Lions. 

Everett being under $5k is very affordable and he stands a great chance to attain value.  If we look at the last 4 weeks, Everett has been targeted 17 times and has caught 14 of them.  His 14 catches are just a shade under Lockett and Metcalf and comes at a fraction of the cost with a better matchup.  This is one of my favorite targets in week 17.  

SuperFlex 

One of the things I love to do on Mondays is go back and studying how the winning lineups have been structured.  Week in and week out on OwnersBox the winning the lineup has had a QB in their SuperFlex spot.  Last week was Joe Burrow, week 15 was Davis Mills, and week 14 was Aaron Rodgers. 

This week will be Trey Lance ($5.3k vs. Houston Texans).  With Jimmy Garoppolo all but ruled out this week with a bum hand the 49ers will turn the ball over their 2021 first-round pick. Lance started 2 games earlier this season and did very well.  He’s a dual-threat QB as he loves to run when given the chance.  Lance should excel this weekend in a great matchup.  

Good luck and hope to see you in the green this week!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candi...

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The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 5 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.Let’s get to the game!Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candida...

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Now into the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, we’ll look at what trading cards could see a value bump. We’ll conclude with the NFC.

Note: I’ll use my DFS-derived Cash-GPP-Punt terminology to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

Divisional Advancers

Green Bay Packers

Cash – For some reason, Aaron Rodgers trading cards don’t get a lot of hype, but they’re highly coveted. It may be because they came around long before the existence of Panini’s Prizm flagship, but also because he spent a few years waiting in the wings behind Brett Favre before he forged his own inevitable path to Canton. His 2005 Topps RC is reasonably priced, but there’s a really sweet – and relatively rare – 2005 Bowman Chrome Auto rookie up for auction on eBay that could sell for more than $2K when it’s all said and done. A PSA 10 (also numbered to 199) sold on Dec. 21 for $5K. I think we could see that particular card (in a graded PSA 10) jump up to $10K if he wins another Super Bowl – and especially if he beats Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the big game.

GPPDavante Adams trading cards are primed for a huge jump, as you can still pick up a raw 2014 Prizm Silver Refractor #281 for about $100 or so. One card that I really like is his 2014 Topps Chrome 1985 throwback design – which is very affordable and looks awesome.

What a cool-looking card — and not too expensive!

Punt – While Aaron Jones is a solid talent, he may price himself out of Green Bay soon, and we could see A.J. Dillon get a shot as the lead back. Dillon’s trading cards are still very affordable now and there’s lots of cool parallels. I pulled a gorgeous 2020 Mosaic Silver Prizm out of a hobby box that would be worth grading were it not for a minor edge issue on the card’s right side.

If you look closely, you can see some minor edge issues that could prevent this card from grading a Gem Mint 10.

New Orleans Saints

CashDrew Brees has a nice array of rookies to choose from, some of which command huge prices. The main issue keeping his trading cards from increasing in the next few months is that he’s obviously in a Chargers uniform in all of them. They’re still great buys because when he retires and is inducted into the HOF a few years down the road, they’ll see a huge bump.

GPPAlvin Kamara rookie trading cards are worth way more than Michael Thomas, and the 2020 season has extended that gap even more. But if the Saints are going to win a title this season, he’s going to be a big part of it. You can buy his 2017 Panini Silver Prizm #291 in a Gem Mint PSA 10 for about $400, and even a 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie #349 PSA 9 is a great buy at just $50.

The 2017 Donruss set is filled with big rookies, including Kamara, Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, to name a few.

Punt – Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston trading cards are dirt cheap, and while they’re both in different uniforms in their rookie cards, one of them is going to inherit an offense that could help skyrocket their value. Jump aboard while they’re affordable.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

CashTom Brady remains the GOAT, and his rookie cards are crazy expensive. Some sellers on eBay post his cards for hilariously unrealistic prices for that site, so I’d advise against shelling out six or seven figures on that site. Still – high-grade examples of his top rookie cards regularly sell for $40-50K right on eBay, so it’s anybody’s guess what the market holds in the coming months. I’m not sure how much higher they’ll go, but if he wins a title with the Bucs, even his 2020 cards should go up.

Is this Brady rookie card worth $250K in a PSA 10? There are only seven graded that high on the PSA registry.

GPPRonald Jones had a solid 2020 season, and Gronk cards may have reached their peak, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still could see a bump.

Punt – I’ve got my eyes on Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Tyler Johnson, but there’s plenty of barriers to their immediate success at those skill positions in Tampa.

Los Angeles Rams

Cash – I’d say the safest bet is probably Cooper Kupp, because we know how crazy Jared Goff’s career has been thus far. I have a few Goff cards but no rookies, and that might be a good segue into the GPP section, because that’s where he probably belongs.

GPP Cam Akers is really talented and has a bright future ahead of him in Los Angeles. I’m buying him up and enjoying how cheap his cards were before he was a regular part of the offense. It’s worth following a couple auctions to see where his cards go in the next couple of weeks.

PuntVan Jefferson might get his shot as soon as one of the top two Rams WRs (Kupp and Robert Woods) moves on, and there’s plenty to like at his current price point.

Eliminated: Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears

Cash – Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf

GPP – Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Chase Young, Terry McLaurin, David Montgomery, Allen Robinson

Punt – Antonio Gandy-Golden, Cole Kmet, Anthony Gordon, Deejay Dallas

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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in one of the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Russell Wilson (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)

Pivot: DK Metcalf (DK $17,100, FD $14,000)

Contrarian #1: Carson Wentz (DK $15,600, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Miles Sanders (DK $13,800, FD $13,500)

DK Punts: Seahawks DST ($5,700) or Jalen Reagor ($8,700)

DK Contrarian Punt: Alshon Jeffrey ($2,400)

We’ve got to love Russell Wilson in this game, and he’ll likely be the chalk. The Seahawks should be able to roll out their usual offensively balanced approach in this game, as they’re back to full capacity with their stable of RBs – grinder Chris Carson is back in action and leads the way – and no major injuries to report among their top two WRs. They will be missing TE Greg Olsen, but I expect to see Wilson picking his spots with efficiency against the Eagles secondary.

As with the rest of the league, the Eagles don’t have anyone who can contain the relatively matchup-proof DK Metcalf, and with the athletic receiver seeing just nine targets over the past two weeks, I expect him to have a big game and around 7-10 targets. Since the Eagles do have a strong run defense, they’ll likely run some play action with Carson to get the ball in the hands of Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and TE Will Dissly, who might notch a couple extra looks in this one.

I’m plenty interested in using the Seahawks DST at captain if it gets me Wilson, one of the big two Seahawks WRs and Carson, and there’s already a viable roster construction for large-field GPPs that I’m envisioning which utilizes a Carson Wentz meltdown/replacement with Jalen Hurts. The Seahawks could force him right out of the game with constant pressure, as the Eagles have yielded a league-high 40 sacks this season through 10 games.

If Wentz is successful in avoiding pressure, it’ll be because their defense will help keep the game close and they give plenty of opportunities to Miles Sanders. The Seahawks defense is about league average against the run, but they looked like a much-improved unit in their game against the Cards. WRs Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham probably have the most upside in this matchup, but I’m sprinkling in plenty of Dallas Goedert and will have a few shares of embattled and oft-injured wideout Alshon Jeffrey, who could see more snaps in this matchup.

Week 12 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Use more Eagles than Seahawks. Unless something goes terribly wrong and the Eagles defense flips the script, we’re looking at a max of two or three lineups per ten where you could go 3/3 (maybe two) or 4-2 (1/10 at most) in favor of Philly.

DO: Get a little creative with the Eagles offensive performers you use. There’s been talk of replacing Wentz if he struggles, and this is exactly the type of game and DSFS format you could see him put together a second half worthy of inclusion.

DON’T: Fiddle around too much with the non-Chris Carson Seahawks backs, aside from possibly Carlos Hyde. The price on Hyde is steep because of last week’s performance, but we have every indication Carson will lead the backfield in touches this week.  A few shares are okay, but don’t go overboard.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Russell Wilson
  2. DK Metcalf
  3. Chris Carson
  4. Tyler Lockett
  5. Carson Wentz
  6. Miles Sanders
  7. Jalen Reagor
  8. Travis Fulgham
  9. Dallas Goedert
  10. Seahawks DST
  11. Will Dissly
  12. Greg Ward
  13. Jason Myers
  14. Boston Scott
  15. Carlos Hyde
  16. Freddie Swain (questionable)
  17. Alshon Jeffrey
  18. Jake Elliott
  19. Jalen Hurts
  20. Jacob Hollister
  21. Eagles DST
  22. Richard Rodgers
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The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 11 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Kyler Murray (DK $19,500, FD $17,000)

Pivot: Russell Wilson (DK $17,700, FD $16,500)

Contrarian #1: DK Metcalf (DK $15,300, FD $13,500)

Contrarian #2: DeAndre Hopkins (DK $16,200, FD $13,500)

DK CPT Punt Options: Freddie Swain ($1,800) & Andy Isabella ($3,000)

There are some pricing discrepancies between FanDuel and DraftKings this week that we can take advantage of – in both cash games and tournaments – but the overriding theme this week will be squeezing in both QBs if we can. That’s a hard task, but I think that’s the best cash game strategy and a viable plan for GPPs.

The chalk on both sites is Kyler Murray, and a quick glance at his game logs tells us why he’s top dog emcee: he hasn’t scored fewer than 24.12 DK points in any game this season and he’s already racked up 2,375-17-8 passing and 604 rushing yards with 10 scores (!) on the ground. Only the Bengals offer a more favorable QB matchup than Seattle, which means he could have one of his highest game totals of the season.

Russell Wilson took a step back in Week 10 with just 12.92 DK points against the Rams, but his fantasy resume is just as impressive, with his previous lowest DK point total (24.9) coming in a Week 4 matchup against an upstart Miami defense that’s been mazing in 2020.

The biggest injury situations to monitor are in both backfields, but Arizona’s Chase Edmonds and Seattle’s Carlos Hyde (full practice participant on Tuesday) are my favorite RB options on both teams. If Chris Carson (foot) can go for the Seahawks that does complicate things a bit, but Hyde had a solid game vs. Arizona in Week 7, is absent an official injury designation heading into Thursday night and offers a pretty nice combination of blocking and receiving skills that will be needed in this game.

Carson’s availability won’t be determined until close to game time, but I’m fading him because foot injuries are easy to exacerbate, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. As for my dude Chase, I’m on him because I’m just not a huge fan of Kenyan Drake, regardless of if he’s 100 percent and even though he gets a pretty large snap share that often exceeds that of Edmonds. Drake’s one truly enormous game this season came against Dallas in Week 6 at the height of that team’s momentous misery.

Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (knee) is questionable but also expected to play, which slightly mars the option of punting the captain spot with super-cheap Freddie Swain for Seattle. Swain hauled in 3-37-0 on four targets last week and is an under-the-radar deep threat and high-leverage performer that Wilson looks for in the red zone. He’s definitely worth using in some GPPs, especially if Lockett is limited.  Anda Isabella is the Arizona analog to Swain – a speedburner who could break the slate with a long TD reception.

Top WR options DeAndre Hopkins (now of “Hail Murray” fame) and DK Metcalf are also worthy of using in any place they can fit, and don’t sleep on Christian Kirk, who is a worthy second fiddle on a Cards team filled with talent.

Kickers, defenses and TEs could make their way into my lineups, but only a smattering, and not in the captain spot.

Week 11 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Count on this to be low-scoring. The projected total sits at 57 and we could easily see this be a 37-31 type of game.

DO: Get plenty of both sides in this game. I just don’t see either team dominating to the point where a 5-to-1 build makes a lot of sense.

DON’T: Forget about the “other” Cards receivers, including Larry Fitzgerald. The NFL legend had 8-62-0 against the Seahawks in Week 7, his best output of the season thus far.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Kyler Murray
  2. Russell Wilson
  3. DK Metcalf
  4. DeAndre Hopkins
  5. Christian Kirk
  6. Carlos Hyde (if Chris Carson is inactive)
  7. Chase Edmonds
  8. Tyler Lockett (questionable)
  9. Kenyan Drake
  10. Larry Fitzgerald
  11. Andy Isabella
  12. Chris Carson (risk-reward)
  13. David Moore (higher if Lockett limited)
  14. Freddie Swain (risky GPP)
  15. Greg Olsen
  16. Jason Myers
  17. Dan Arnold
  18. Zane Gonzalez
  19. Cards DST
  20. Seahawks DST
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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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Week 17 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Sam Darnold, NYJ @ BUF

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,200)

Starting off with a bit of a wild card here. Sam Darnold has been looking improved in his last five games with a 7:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span. The Buffalo Bills are locked into the fifth seed for the playoffs and this game means absolutely nothing but pride for them. They have already ruled Shaq Lawson out and Darnold played decent against the Bills Week One while dealing with mono. Expect a great performance at this price and pay up for other skill positions in your lineup.

Tom Brady, NE @ MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

The naysayers will say that Brady doesn’t perform well in South Florida but I would counter that with a look at this Miami Dolphins team. This is a great chance for the Patriots offense to get back in stride with a weaker opponent heading into a probable bye week. Tom Brady had one of his better statistical games against this Dolphins team with 264 yards and two touchdowns. Expect a nice performance at another relatively cheaper price than normal for the quarterback slot.

Aaron Rodgers, GB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,300)

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t turn the ball over with just three interceptions this season. The Lions have surpassed the Arizona Cardinals as the worst passing defense in the NFL and have six interceptions, the lowest in the league. Aaron Rodgers should be a gunslinger in this game and be around 300 yards as well. No need to discount double-check this decision.

Week 17 Quarterback GPP Plays

Russell Wilson, SF vs SEA

DK ($15,000) FD ($7,900)

With the division title on the line in Week 17 in a primetime matchup, there are very few quarterbacks I would want outside of Russell Wilson. Coming off an all-around stinker against the Arizona Cardinals, the Seahawks should come out on all cylinders against the 49ers. Yes, the numbers say the 49ers pass defense should limit him but the last three weeks do not look good for that defense.

Deshaun Watson, TEN vs HOU

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,000)

He currently is listed as questionable with a back injury but I wouldn’t be shocked if he is under center on Sunday afternoon. Going up against a hungry Titans team still competing for a playoff opportunity, Watson will have the energy to compete instead of “taking the week off”. He played well in the matchup these two teams had earlier in the season and I expect very similar numbers out of him as well.

Patrick Mahomes, LAC vs KC

DK ($ 7,200) FD ($8,600)

Patrick Mahomes had a bit of a struggle at points in this season but last year’s MVP has been heating up in his last three games. He played against top-level defenses in that span and should be easier for him with the Chargers in town. With the opportunity of a potential bye still looming, expect Patrick Mahomes to showcase his abilities on Sunday.

Week 17 Quarterback Fades

Jameis Winston, ATL vs TB

DK ($6,600) FD ($8,100)

Jameis is on the injury report ahead of this game with a thumb and knee injury. This Atlanta team is completely different than the one Winston saw a month ago, with three consecutive victories and a team that will not be changing regimes in the offseason. Without some of his favorite targets on the field due to injury, expect a stinker from Jameis to end this season.

Case Keenum, WAS @ DAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($6,800)

Do not buy into last week’s offensive performance from Case Keenum once Dwayne Haskins was carted off. This Cowboys team is somehow still competing for the NFC East crown and need to win this game and hope for an Eagles loss. Keenum had back-to-back stinkers before being demoted to the backup and that’s more of what I expect.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, NE @ MIA

DK ($5,800) FD ($7,400)

The fact that he is facing off against Bill Belichick and the New England defense is the main reason why Fitzpatrick is on this list. With a New England victory, they clinch a Wild Card bye and that will motivate the defense. I don’t necessarily believe he will turn into FitzTragic here, but I’m not believing in the Miami offense either.

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Patrick Mahomes over 299.5 passing yards and Jameis Winston over 317.5 passing yards.

You can read about each of these quarterbacks above but as a summary, Jameis Winston should struggle without his main weapons against the Atlanta Falcons. Patrick Mahomes on the other hand should have a 300 yard day with the Chargers looking to end their miserable 2019 season.

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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

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Week 16 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Russell Wilson, ARI vs SEA

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,300)

Russell Wilson vs Arizona’s defense, that is all. It looks like he is rediscovering a connection with Tyler Lockett, which is key with Josh Gordon being suspended. In his last five games, Wilson is averaging 240 yards. The Cardinals are allowing 306.9 passing yards per game and are still the defense I expect to crumble. Especially with the different playoff situations that could happen, this should be the building block for the Seahawks to win the NFC West.

Lamar Jackson, BAL @ CLE

DK ($8,000) FD ($9,300)

Do I even need to give you numbers for this one? The only reason you could argue this is questioning how long Jackson will be in the game. This Cleveland Browns team has completely given up and are now iffy at best. Lamar had a great game last time these two met as he went for 247 passing yards with three touchdowns and two picks. He also ran nine times for 66 yards. Expect another Lamar Jackson-esque game here.

Dak Prescott, DAL @ PHI

DK ($6,400) FD ($8,000)

His appearance on the injury report and being limited in practice does not scare me in the least. Philadelphia is tied for allowing the seventh-most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season. The Eagles also allow a lot of big passing plays with 14 passes of at least 40 yards. The injuries that have stockpiled on their offense will allow Prescott to control the ball. Last week’s annihilation of the Rams also plays a factor in this decision. Expect a solid game and the NFC East clinched here.

Week 16 Quarterback GPP Plays

Matt Ryan, JAX vs ATL

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,700)

Ryan has thrown for multiple touchdowns for the last two games. He also has not thrown an interception in the month of December. The Jacksonville Jaguars are not in a great position with the firing of Tom Coughlin and their defense doesn’t force interceptions as well. Expect a nice outing out of Ryan at a solid price point.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, CIN vs MIA

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,400)

I feel this will bring quite the upside in an otherwise meaningless game that many people will forget about. Cincinnati locks in the first overall pick in 2020 with the loss so I wouldn’t be shocked if the call from above is to lose. Obviously, players don’t care about tanking and will play regardless. FitzMagic should be in full effect and pick up a fourth consecutive solid outing against weak opponents. He could make your quarterback skill position a lot stronger with him in your DFS lineup.

Drew Brees, NO @ TEN

DK ($ 6,900) FD ($8,200)

Coming off one of the single greatest performances by a quarterback, Drew Brees is going up against the Tennessee Titans. Still competing for the number one seed, Brees will still be competing at the highest level. The Titans allow 258.1 passing yards per game and that is the eighth-highest in the NFL. Expect a great game out of Brees, which isn’t such a difficult thought.

Week 16 Quarterback Fades

Josh Allen, BUF @ NE

DK ($5,300) FD ($7,600)

In his last game against the Pats, he went 13-of-28 with 153 yards and three interceptions. Bill Belichick has a way of making opposing quarterbacks feel uncomfortable and with a solid defense, don’t expect a big return with Josh Allen under center for your NFL DFS team.

Tom Brady, BUF vs NE

DK ($5,200) FD ($7,400)

This Patriots offense is not threatening, especially going against an elite Buffalo defense that is mathematically still alive for the AFC East divisional title. The Patriots have struggled against speedy defenses this season and Buffalo is another one of those. It’s hard to see the Pats having a chance to run the ball. Brady also went 18-of-39 for 150 yards and a pick last time these two teams faced off. Don’t try to get too cute with your quarterback selection here.

Derek Carr, OAK @ LAC

DK ($5,300) FD ($7,300)

With the news that Josh Jacobs will not play in this game, I don’t see the Raiders running the ball as much. Carr is an average quarterback and when a defense can suspect the pass, it probably won’t be a great outing for Carr. The Chargers pass defense is already elite without the help as they allow just 197.4 passing yards a game, which is fourth in the NFL. With all the signs pointing against Derek Carr, it makes sense to fade him in this matchup.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day 

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Patrick Mahomes over 290.5 passing yards and Mitchell Trubisky under 241.5 passing yards.

Pat Mahomes is going against an injury-plagued Chicago Bears defense. Coming off a great game against the Denver Broncos, Mahomes had 340 yards through the air. I expect another 300+ yard passing game out of Mahomes. Trubisky, on the other hand, has big yardage days but I see the Chiefs dominating the time of possession in this game. Trubisky is turnover-prone so he won’t have the opportunity to put up these types of numbers.

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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 15 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Jimmy Garoppolo, ATL vs SF

DK ($5,600) FD ($8,400)

He is coming off of one of his best games as a starting quarterback and the Falcons defense shouldn’t cause issues. Atlanta is allowing a 100.3 passer rating this season, which is the seventh-highest in the NFL. Garoppolo is playing with solid receivers that will create separation. With the 49ers still trying to win the NFC West, they should be ready while the Falcons are eliminated from playoff contention. Even with a backup center for the remainder of the season, Garoppolo should still have a solid game.

Tom Brady, NE @ CIN

DK ($6,100) FD ($7,600)

This should be the bounce-back week for the Patriots offense in general as they travel to Cincinnati. The Bengals have allowed just 16 passing touchdowns so don’t expect the huge total from Brady. However, he doesn’t turn the ball over often and is a cheaper option on the slate. The Bengals allow 64 percent of passes to be completed so expect Brady’s accuracy to increase from where it has been the previous month. Expect a nice rebound game against a team poised to have the first pick in the NFL Draft.

Aaron Rodgers, CHI vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,000)

This game is completely different than when these two teams met to open up the season. The Chicago Bears are dealing with injuries across the defense with Roquan Smith being placed on IR as well as Prince Amukamara and Danny Trevathan potentially missing this game. Aaron Rodgers should dominate a depleted defense and this Bears team has given up at least 275 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks in the last three games. Aaron Rodgers is completing 64.3 percent of his passes this season and only threw two interceptions so far. Expect Rodgers to continue playing well and get closer to locking up the NFC North.

Week 15 Quarterback GPP Plays

Jameis Winston, TB @ DET

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,200)

Winston had a great statistical game passing the ball last week against the Indianapolis Colts without Mike Evans. Evans is currently doubtful for this matchup as of this writing. Tampa ranks second in passing yards per game and the Lions allow the third-most passing yards in the league. I do not see a situation where Detroit can stop Jameis, all they can do is hope he coughs up the football multiple times.

Baker Mayfield, CLE @ ARI

DK ($6,400) FD ($7,700)

Not sure if I am pro-Baker or anti-Arizona this week. Baker should feast against this Arizona defense that is the worst at passing defense. They allow the most yards per game, touchdowns and best passer rating in the league. Baker is completing under 60 percent of his passes this season but this should be the return to last year’s version of Mayfield with a soft opposing defense. The Browns somehow have a chance to still make the playoffs and need this win, so expect Baker to come out with a lot of emotion.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ CAR

DK ($ 7,000) FD ($8,100)

Carolina is still trying to find out their identity as the season is reaching its end. Their pass rush is one of the best in the league with the second-most sacks. However, Carolina has two of their DE on the injury report. Expect Wilson to have his usual game as the running game will set him up for some big plays.

Week 15 Quarterback Fades

Mitch Trubisky, CHI @ GB

DK ($,6000) FD ($7,500)

The Packers are a different team at home than they are on the road. Green Bay’s defense has 13 interceptions on the year and Tribusky is prone to mistakes. The Packers are trying to lock up this division and defeating the Bears could eliminate Chicago from the playoffs. Expect the Green Bay defense to lock down Tribusky and turn him back into a pumpkin.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ NE

DK ($4,900) FD ($7,000)

Bill Belichick will shut down Andy Dalton, plain and simple. Dalton has had a solid couple games since being renamed the starting quarterback but that was against the Jets and Browns. The Patriot defense struggles against speedy teams and the Bengals do not have much speed. Expect this to get ugly early and potentially see Dalton pulled late.

Josh Allen, BUF @ PIT

DK ($6,000) FD ($7,600)

Buffalo has two of their offensive tackles on the injury report, which is a little concerning. Pittsburgh’s passing defense is one of the best in football with the most sacks, fifth-least passing yards, and 18 interceptions. Allen has been good this year but the Bills offense has stuttered at times this season and against an elite defense is prone to do so again in primetime.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day 

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Jimmy Garoppolo over 270.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 265.5 passing yards.

Atlanta is allowing 258.2 passing yards per game and this is the time for Garoppolo to sling the football. Atlanta stops the run well so look for a large number of passing attempts and Jimmy G should finish with 300+ yards. San Francisco is coming off their worst pass-defending games in a shootout with the New Orleans Saints. However, the Falcons do not have nearly the amount of weapons that the Saints did. The 49ers also rank first in pass defense this season so Matt Ryan should easily hit the under.

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The quarterback is the most important position in sports, let alone football. Choosing the correct quarterback on your DFS lineup could be the difference between winning a tournament and walking out empty-handed. With that all out of the way, let’s get into the Quarterbacks DFS Picks for Cash Games, GPP and who to punt!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you’d like to see more of my work click here! Also, Follow me on Twitter @VinPensabene

Week 14 Quarterback Cash Game Plays

Aaron Rodgers, WAS vs GB

DK ($6,800) FD ($8,400)

Another week, another NFC East team with little-to-no chance to stop Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown 22 touchdowns with just two interceptions this season. The Washington Redskins do not hold the ball enough and this smells like a dominant Packers performance where Aaron Rodgers shows why he is still one of the best passers in the league.

Delvin Hodges, PIT @ ARI

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,000)

Delvin Hodges has looked good in his limited action thus far this season. The Arizona Cardinals have been the worst against the pass as they have given up 307 yards and 31 touchdowns (both lead the NFL). Opposing quarterbacks are able to make big plays with 60 passes of at least 20 yards happening. Even with Juju Smith-Schuster looking like he won’t play, I can’t expect anything out of this Cardinal defense. Hodges isn’t going to dominate here, but he is a valuable option that won’t cost you.

Drew Brees, SF vs NO

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,700)

The first half of last week’s game against the Baltimore Ravens has soured me a tiny bit off the 49ers. New Orleans has already clinched the NFC South and now it’s time for the Saints to try to capture a bye in the Wild Card round. San Francisco is one of the best against the passing game but it’s Drew Brees we are talking about. He’s one of the only quarterbacks I blindly follow no matter who is opposing Brees.

Week 14 Quarterback GPP Plays

Pat Mahomes, KC @ NE

DK ($7,000) FD ($8,400)

This one is the “hot take” choice because this one can burn you easily and the number one rule (Belichick eliminates your number one option). However, the one thing that the New England defense struggles with is speed and that was evident against the Ravens and Texans so far. The Chiefs are faster than either of those teams and Pat Mahomes is looking for revenge from last year’s AFC Championship. Speed is the kryptonite this year and will take it until the Patriots show me otherwise.

Kirk Cousins, DET vs MIN

DK ($6,700) FD ($8,200)

Kirk Cousins is extremely underrated this season with a 23:4 TD-to-INT ratio. In Week 7 when these two teams met, Cousins had one of his best games on the season. Detroit gives up the third-most passing yards per game and allowed 25 passing touchdowns through 12 games. With the weapons that Minnesota has offensively, expect a big game out of good ole’ Kirk Cousins.

Russell Wilson, SEA @ LAR

DK ($ 6,900) FD ($8,000)

The current runner-up to the MVP is definitely a solid quarterback option this week. Against the Rams in Week 5, Wilson torched them for 268 yards and four touchdowns. The Rams don’t scare me as much as others that I am seeing. I don’t expect that type of performance but something in that ballpark wouldn’t be too eye-opening.

Week 14 Quarterback Fades

Gardner Minshew II, LAC vs JAX

DK ($5,400) FD ($6,600)

Minshew Mania is back as the Jaguars announced he will be the starter for the remainder of the season. However, it’s because of Nick Foles’ play and not because Minshew was the bright star off the bench. The Chargers are one of the best teams against the pass this season and should shut Minshew and the Jaguars passing game down this week.

Andy Dalton, CIN @ CLE

DK ($5,200) FD ($7,000)

After being viewed as the savior returning to the starting role and picking up Cincinnati’s first victory of the season, I don’t expect much from Dalton. The Bengals aren’t riding that emotional wave of Dalton’s return this week and the Browns are still in the Wild Card hunt. AJ Green will be out for this game as well. Cleveland is 6th in passing defense so don’t expect a lot from the Red Rifle.

Derek Carr, TEN vs OAK

DK ($5,000) FD ($7,000)

Derek Carr is coming off his worst game this season against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Oakland Raiders are struggling right now and have lost their identity. Carr has three consecutive games with at least one interception and I wouldn’t be shocked if he extended that streak. The Titans average just under an interception per game and should pick him off. They do not give up passing touchdowns or allow quarterbacks to get into a rhythm so don’t expect too much out of Derek Carr this week.

Monkey Knife Fight Quarterback Pick of the Day 

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Jameis Winston under 310.5 passing yards and Matt Ryan under 286.5 passing yards.

Indianapolis allows 226.9 passing yards per game and should control the clock in this game. I see a couple of Winston turnovers costing him the opportunity to reach 311 yards or more. Matt Ryan won’t get the chance either as the Panthers have fired Ron Rivera and will probably be run-heavy with a short week with their interim coach. Chrisitan McCaffrey should dominate this game and not give Ryan a lot of time with the ball.

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