As I’ve said over and over again: every player is banged up to a certain extent at this point in the season. The key to winning at DFS is navigating the medical implications for said injuries. Enter the DFS Injury Fades and Plays article. Despite what I just said about the state of the NFL’s health, this week there are only a handful of decisions to make in terms of injuries as many guys have already been ruled out or are on bye. I’ll walk you through who those players are. Note that the following prices are from FanDuel.
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
Tyler Lockett ($7,400)
First up on the DFS Injury Fades and Plays is a guy who looks to be active on Sunday. Lockett was limited in practice all week, but coach Pete Carroll said on Friday that he’s now “good to go”. Keep in mind that although Lockett will probably be active, his effectiveness is not guaranteed. I’m extremely conservative with players coming back from serious injuries (e.g. Emmanuel Sanders in Week 11 playing through rib damage) and considering that he stayed in the hospital for two nights, I need a “prove it” game from him. Not to mention that from a strategy perspective, injuries alter game plans and there is a small chance he’s not as involved in the offensive scheme as we’re used to seeing. So, although I love Tyler Lockett on paper, he’s a fade for me in cash this week. The flip side is that he’s a great tournament play and the potential to pop off for 100 yards and 7 catches still exist. In reality, I’m really only eyeing Russell Wilson ($8,200) in cash for this game.
Alshon Jeffery ($6,200)
Jeffery was a limited practiced participant all week and is now questionable with an ankle injury. He’s a difficult player to prognosticate as this ankle injury has stubbornly stuck around for weeks now, meaning I’m not convinced that he can be that Alshon even if he plays. Despite all of those things, Jeffery still might give it a go due to the fact that fellow receiver Nelson Agholor might sit out with a knee injury, adding extra pressure for Jeffery to try and go. As a result, he’s a fade for me but his teammates Zach Ertz ($6,100) and Miles Sanders ($5,600) become cash and tournament plays respectively. I’m especially bullish on Miles Sanders in tournaments this week despite his dud against the Patriots due to the fact that Jordan Howard will once again be inactive. Additionally, Sanders is a big play waiting to happen. Another rarely discussed factor in situations such as this are injuries on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks’ star defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney did not practice all week, which significantly hurts a Seattle rushing defense that is just barely middle of the pack. Check back with me for an update on that.
Update: Alshon is inactive. Clowney is also inactive. Consider Ajayi as a tournament option.
Phillip Dorsett ($5,400)
Dorsett is still in the concussion protocol as of this morning, which means that he’s truly a game-time decision. Because of the fact that every concussion is unique and non-linear in nature in terms of recovery, I think this is the first time that the Patriots aren’t just playing whack-a-mole with the reports. It is concerning that Dorsett has not been cleared for contact and the fact that he participated in individual drills on Friday, though a good sign overall, does not guarantee he’s active on Sunday. With the added factor that Mohamed Sanu is a likely inactive (or will at least be limited), I believe this is a ceiling game for Julian Edelman ($7,500) so I’m more than okay using him in cash. His teammates, on the other hand, are fades if active.
Update: Mo Sanu’s ankle injury is of the high ankle variety and it seems like he’s pushing to play. Although it’s a valiant effort to say he’ll play, I would be shocked if he plays and even more shocked if he’s productive.
Emmanuel Sanders ($6,400)
Sanders was a risky play last week due to cartilage damage of his ribs and this week is no different. Last week he was painfully limited and it was cringe-worthy to watch. Ribs injuries are brutal to play through and Sanders showed us that last week. Enough times have not passed for Sanders to be significantly improved. So, even though I think San Francisco runs the ball against Green Bay, somebody has to catch the ball. Looking at you in tournaments Deebo Samuel ($6,200).
George Kittle ($7,000)
Although Kittle is making steady progress in his recovery by practicing in a limited fashion all week, he is still reportedly wearing a non-contact jersey, which is not a great sign for his availability on Sunday. On the off chance that he does get activated, he’s merely a deep tournament play. Instead, I’m looking at Tevin Coleman ($6,300) in tournaments (and potentially cash depending on format) and his counterpart Raheem Mostert ($4,800) who will get the nod as Matt Breida is highly unlike to play. Why you ask? Because the Packers are 5th to last in rushing DVOA and this could become a game of keep away from Aaron Rodgers. Kittle is fade for me if he’s active (which I don’t necessarily expect).
Reports: The reports this morning are that Kittle has a fracture in his foot or ankle but will play tonight. I think that decision is extremely, ahem, not smart. I’m fading Kittle in all formats and willing to live with the consequences (even though I do not expect a productive day from him).
Thank you for reading the DFS Injury Fades and Plays. Make sure to follow up with me on Sunday morning for the final updated version!
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
Image courtesy of Larry Maurer.
