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Rory McIlroy

PGA Championship Picks & Advice: All You Need to Know

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Oak Hill Country Club is sure to provide a stern test for our PGA Championship Picks — The East Course at Oak Hill Country Club underwent a significant restoration project in 2020 to prepare for this event. See how this has influenced our PGA Championship Picks below!

Coming off the Wyndham Clark 75/1 win, the AT&T Byron Nelson ended more with a whimper than a roar for our picks last week. We had leaned heavily into the Enhanced Outright Win number on Scottie Scheffler at +450. This remained for some time despite the withdrawal of second favourite Jordan Spieth. A raft of other names followed including mid-range options Spaun, Hubbard, and Smalley amongst others. Scheffler was of course there all week as expected, although an even par 3rd round proved a huge hurdle to his chances in the final round. We also notably had Ryan Palmer as joint leader entering the final day. Selected at 150/1, the Texan found some hometown advantage to complement some promising statistics to make a great charge at the title. Let’s hope we can secure a few more winning hopes this week with our PGA Championship picks!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKUGPenwups&t=324s

Course Analysis

Oak Hill Country Club, specifically the East Course, plays host this week. This venue has already played host to three PGA Championship, three US Opens, a Ryder Cup, and the US Amateur. This may imply that there is a myriad of data available for our PGA Championship picks. Those expectations should be somewhat tempered.

Significantly, the course underwent an extensive renovation at the hands of Andrew Green to restore Oak Hill closer to the original Donald Ross vision. Completed in 2020, this restoration should see quite a different course greet players this week. This was previously a test where narrow fairways littered by thousands of large tees saw a huge emphasis on driving accuracy. The removal of hundreds of trees opens up new lines of sight to players.

Explicitly, bunkering has been described as “aggressive”. These are not only strategically placed, but are almost links-like in nature. Mounds surrounding the edges and strong bunker faces will prove a true penalty if found. The rough is thick and it will make little difference whether you miss the fairway by 1 yard or 20 yards. All greens have been completely redone, extensively reshaped, and replaced with pure bentgrass. Holes 5, 6, and 15 are all significantly changed. This is a different golf course and should be treated as such.

There has been some great content produced by the Fried Egg and Golf Digest on these changes. Certainly, I highly recommend watching these to gain an understanding of the course.

https://youtu.be/7Yr3CPafUYA

https://youtu.be/ljyFPHHmONM

Oak Hill Course Comps

Obviously, a newly redesigned golf course provides some challenges in finding related course form. Winged Foot (host of the 2020 US Open) and Bethpage Black (2019 PGA Championship and The Barclays 2016, 2012) provide the most obvious direct examples. Last year’s host Southern Hills should provide a decent correlation, in both approach metrics but also the likely wind we will see this weekend.

Quail Hollow should provide at least some noteworthy comparison, with comparative long approach metrics. Innisbrook Resort and the Copperhead Course holds a similar standing in that regard.

For bentgrass putting, last weeks tournament at TPC Craig Ranch holds the same grass type. Similarly, Wilmington Country Club and Augusta National can be used as a putting guide.

Key Statistics for our PGA Championship Picks

Although the restoration project does lend to an increased emphasis on driving distance compared to previous iterations hosted here, I don’t want to completely discount driving accuracy completely this week. There are many paths to the top of the mountain. However, I do believe the path to victory becomes somewhat narrower (pun intended) for those who lack distance off the tee. Markedly, the penal rough and surrounding mounds will see a distinct advantage for those who can regularly find the fairway.

I think we can also get a little more nuanced in how we treat driving distance this week. With potentially softer conditions due to winter and a wet Spring, runout may be less than at other majors. Also, there are some holes where a compulsory carry of 290 yards+ over hazards is required to gain a distinct advantage. Therefore, I prefer to use Carry Distance to a straight Driving Distance metric.

Following, we again expect a disproportionate number of approach shots to occur from over 200+ yards. 1/3 of approach shots will come from over that distance whilst 2/3 shots will occur over 150 yards. I have used both approach statistics from over 200+ yards as well as approach from rough 150+yards in our PGA Championship picks this week.

Finally, we simply expect this to provide a stern test of every golfers all round game. Accordingly, we expect a winning total in single figures from -5 to -9 is on the cards. Certainly, the list of likely potential winners is small. As such, we have provided reduced staking on many outright win bets to instead focus on place opportunities.

Weather for our PGA Championship Picks

Generally, based on current forecasts there appears to be little to no weather edge leading into the second major of the year.

Firstly, Thursday AM looks to be brutally cold, with highs between 35-50F. Winds, however, will be lower than later that afternoon. Certainly, this looks to mitigate some of the impact from lost driving distance in the colder temperatures.

Subsequently, Friday looks to be the windier of the two opening days. Winds are expected between 9-12mph prevailing with gusts reaching 25-30mph. Basically, this looks to be consistent majority of the day. However, it may develop that Friday AM actually provides the windier conditions of the day.

Finally, if an edge were to develop I suspect that this would move in the direction of being Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. Particularly, for the purposes of DFS I would suggest building lineups with 20% being Thursday AM/Friday PM, 15% Thursday PM/Friday AM, and the remaining 65% mixed.

Latest weather forecasts can be found here

PGA Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +3300 (MGM)
2.5pts Top 10 +320 (Fanduel)
or 2.5pts E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau: Pre-Tournament Future
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings, Fanduel, & MGM)

Rickie Fowler
2pts WIN +5500 (Various)
2pts Top 10 +450 (Various)
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark: Pre-Tournament Future – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value
2pts E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings & Fanduel)

Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +16000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +450 (Bet365) or +400 (Draftkings)

Stephan Jaeger
0.5pts WIN +25000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1400 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +475 (Bet365) or +550 (Draftkings)

Harris English
0.5pts WIN +18000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1600 (Fanduel)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365/TAB) or +490 (Fanduel)
And
2pts Top 40 +275 (Bet365) or +250 (Fanduel)

Alex Smalley
0.25pts WIN +55000 (Fanduel)
0.25pts Top 10 +2300 (Fanduel)
or 0.25pts E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (Bet365) or +850 Draftkings
And
2.5pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365/TAB) or +320 (Fanduel)

Golfer Profiles for our PGA Championship Picks

Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite

I’m willing to take a stab that we were a little too early on Cameron Young at the Wells Fargo Championship and mark him as our PGA Championship picks favourite this week.

Certainly, Cam Young ticks many of the key statistics we are looking for this week. For carry distance, Young boasts an impressive 3rd on the PGA Tour averaging 305 yards. He is a gainer on approach in all buckets above 100 yards. This includes in the 150+ yards from rough category, where his clubhead speed will prove an asset if straying from the short-grass this week. He displayed an affinity for bentgrass at The Masters this year, gaining +1.23 strokes per round putting around Augusta National.

Cameron Young perhaps should have won the PGA Championship last year. He was the best positioned of candidates on the final 9 Sunday, although eventually succumbing to finish 3rd. He will be better for that experience. Additionally, Southern Hills should provide a reasonable correlation to what we see this week at Oak Hill.

2nd at the 150th Open Championship hosted at St Andrews and 7th this year at The Masters, Young is building a handy resume of major championship results. Don’t be surprised to find him adding to those claims in the near future.

Finally, this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cam Young. He grew up in upstate New York, as he mentioned in this excellent Sports Illustrated interview. Specifically, he mentioned his comfort on these grass types and how it compares to golf courses where he learned to play the game. It further aids his claims to not only take out a major, but his first PGA Tour title at the same time.

Tony Finau

Narrowly following up in our PGA Championship picks is Tony Finau, who we were able to snag at a juicy 33/1 where he can only be found at 23/1 at time of writing. For what it is worth, the 23/1 on offer would be at the bottom end of my positive EV and I would not look to take him any shorter than his current pricing.

Finau has been on a prolific winning streak notching 4 victories in his last 20 starts. I’ll acknowledge the calibre of those victories may be questioned. However, at the Mexico Open he beat Jon Rahm on a course where 63.1% of approach shots were from over 175 yards. At the Houston Open, he defeated Scheffler and Day. At the Rocket Mortgage, he beat Cantlay and Cam Young. Finally, the 3M Open he beat Sungjae Im. He has not finished worse than 31st since November 2022. Certainly, the depth of field at many of these events has been less than what we’ve become accustomed to at the new designated events. Conversely, he has also found a way to win more often, against some decent enough opponents.

Tony Finau in 2023 ranks 4th on approach over 200+ yards of those with 50+ shots recorded. He also ranks 9th for approach shots over 150 yards from the rough with 80+ attempts. Finau ranks 7th in this field for SG: APP and 6th for SG: T2G. His driving is both long and straight, which will be a key asset at this testing course.

Boasting an 8th at Winged Foot, multiple Masters Top 10s, and a 12th at Bethpage Black are all promising signs this could fit. It feels an inevitably that Finau will secure at least one major during his career. It may be this week.

Rickie Fowler

I’m typically not overly enamoured by Rickie Fowler. Even in his prime, he often finished towards the top of leaderboards without competing. It felt much like a Xander or Cantlay may do now; oodles of talent but somewhat lacking in the Wins column to show for it.

However, count me impressed by Fowler’s resurgence of late. Since January, he has placed in the top 20 for 8 of his last 9 starts. This has also included 5 designated events. Data Golf rank him as 20th, whilst his OWGR still sits at 49th. That is always an opportunity where we can see some swift correction, as we did with Wyndham Clark when he won for us at big odds.

Sitting 10th for SG: APP in this field over the last 6 months is no small feat. Although on paper he may not be the longest for pure driving distance, his carry distance is an impressive 26th this season on the PGA Tour at 293.50 yards. That is plenty enough distance to be workable this week. Combine that with the fact Fowler is a big gainer in SG: Putt on bentgrass greens and is 12th for SG: Total it provides a promising complete profile for a golfer. He is simply far too long at 75/1.

5 finishes of 12th or better at the Masters, 23rd last year at Southern Hills when in far worse form, and a 36th and 7th at Bethpage Black tick the complimentary courses boxes. Perhaps we see a return to the winner circle for Fowler, just as we did for Jason Day last week.

Wyndham Clark – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value

Again, I feel fortunate we were able to pick up Wyndham Clark at big odds of 80/1 for this event when he can only be found at 66/1 at many books now. I still like him at that price here, especially where that includes 8 or more places. I’d not go as short as 60s.

It has been a stellar year for Wyndham Clark. Previously known simply as a bomber who could putt well, that all changed at the beginning of 2023. From January, Clark began finding his irons in a big way. The scale of improvement has been astounding. If looking at the last 2 years, Clark ranks a lowly 108th in this field for SG: APP. Over the last 6 months, he ranks 11th in this field. In 2022, the PGA Tour had Clark ranked as the 173rd golfer on SG: APP. This year, he ranks 20th.

The victory at Quail Hollow was dominant, winning by 4 strokes to Schauffele and 7 strokes ahead of everybody else in a designated event. That course should prove at least somewhat correlated to here, where strong driving and long irons are key. According to Data Golf, he is the 11th best player in the world where as his OWGR at 32nd. There may still be further correction coming.

The driving distance for Clark remains, where he ranks 6th this year in Carry Distance on the PGA Tour. And, finally, bentgrass may well be his best putting surface. His best putting performances in the past year came at the Fortinet Championship, Rocket Mortgage, and the RBC Canadian Open. All were on bentgrass.

Outsiders

As stated, given the stern test on offer I do believe the top of the board is likely where the winner of this event will come from. As such, you’ll notice a reduced stake for the win options and increased weighting on the Top Finishes markets for the below selections.

Taylor Moore

Another who I feel the market continues to disrespect is Taylor Moore. Moore secured his breakthrough win at the Valspar Championship. Copperhead Course has always provided a stern enough test. It took -10 for Moore to win this year and there have been multiple iterations where single digits has been sufficient. It also has a huge emphasis on long iron play, with 53% of approach shots this year over 175 yards.

Those long irons are really what draw me to Moore. This year, Moore ranks 2nd behind only Woodland for approach of those with 50+ recorded shots over 200+ yards. That is ahead of Rahm in 3rd, Finau in 4th, and Scheffler in 5th. Some truly elite company to be associated with. He is also 25th over the past 6 months for SG: OTT, gaining for both driving distance and accuracy.

Moore impressed in his major debut at the Masters, managing to make the cut and finishing 39th. It was a tournament where he played much better than the finishing position tells, with a final round +6 sending him flying down the leaderboard. This is easily excused in his first major appearance, especially in a heavily disrupted tournament where the 3rd round resumed on Sunday with the leaders only on the 7th hole. He remains a big gainer for putting in all his appearances featuring bentgrass greens.

11th at the RBC Heritage and 27th at the Wells Fargo came in designated events and marks a run of 11/12 events finishing 39th or better, highlighting this is no “flash in the pan”. I have lofty expectations for Taylor Moore’s career, as I do going into this week.

Stephan Jaeger

Jaeger was always a promising type. A stellar amateur career promised much when entering the realms of professional golf. He proceeded to yo-yo between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour, where he has now seemingly begun to find his feet.

I’ll start by saying that bentgrass is by far Jaeger’s preferred putting surface. We saw this just last week when charging through the field to finish 11th at TPC Craig Ranch. But, additionally, at Quail Hollow, the Rocket Mortgage, and Wilmington. Jaeger played in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot, where he far exceeded expectation when finishing 34th whilst still on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Another whose golf ranking is seemingly out of kilter, Data Golf rank him at 48th versus his OWGR standing of 117th. He has finished 44th or better in 7/8 starts since the Genesis Invitational. 5 of those have been finishes of 27th or better. His long irons are excellent. Particularly, approach shots when playing from the rough from 150+ yards. He sits in the top 80% for SG per shot, proximity, GIR, and Poor Shot Avoidance for this category.

Most notably, Jaeger has quietly gone about adding a lot of driving distance in 2023. He ranks 36th in Carry Distance this season where he sat 94th last year. He is 23rd for SG: T2G in this field over the past 6 months, with his finishes held back somewhat by his putting. However, as mentioned, he is a far better putter on bentgrass and I think we could be in for an eye-catching performance from Jaeger here.

Harris English

Once regarded as one of the rising stars of the game, 2021 saw Harris English playing in the Ryder Cup and winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Travelers Championship. His movement through the world of golf was halted following surgery to a hip injury in the 2021 season. We are beginning to see murmurs that English may soon be back towards his very best.

English impressed last outing when finishing 3rd at the designated event Wells Fargo Championship. He did so when sitting 2nd in the field behind only winner Wyndham Clark for SG: APP. As is often the case, gains in approach tend to be “stickier” whilst we expect spikes in putting performance to regress to a player’s mean much more quickly. 55.2% of approach shots were over 175 yards at Quail Hollow and 75.5% of approach shots were over 150 yards.

He is one of the biggest movers in SG: Putt when shifting to bentgrass greens. He can also boast a 4th place at the US Open at Winged Foot, which we expect to be well correlated to Oak Hill.

Alex Smalley

Finally, I round out my PGA Championship picks with a small and speculative play on Alex Smalley at huge odds of 500/1. Whereas this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cameron Young, this really is one for Alex Smalley who was born in Rochester, NY.

26 year old Alex Smalley jumped almost directly into the PGA Tour from a stellar amateur campaign. A rather weird transition due to COVID, he finished 48th, 4th, and 15th in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to earn a PGA Tour card near immediately. It was an eye-catching rookie season, where he made it all the way to the second stage of the FedEx Cup playoffs at the BMW Championship in Wilmington.

Smalley impressed when finishing 18th on last sighting at the elevated Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. He was subsequently backed by me last week, before promptly withdrawing when it became clear he would make the PGA Championship field.

At his best, Smalley is both long and straight off the tee. His approach game has also been rounding into decent form, beyond the promising big uptick last appearance. Particularly, his approach numbers from the rough and 150+ yards are impressive. Smalley has now gained over or been at the field average for approach in his last 5 events.

Again, a debut professional major appearance is a lot to ask of any player. However, he is undeniably a rising talent who represents a great value in both Top 20 and Top 40 markets.

Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 PGA Championship picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

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PGA Sports Betting

Golf Betting 101: How To Pick More Winning Golfers

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

golf analysis, winning golf bets, how to win at golf betting — Get that winning feeling with WinDaily Sports

An insight into my golf analysis process and key indicators to identify success.

Golf betting can be tricky. The majority of fields have 140+ golfers to chose from, every week there is a different course to study, and it is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements.

However, this also presents opportunity. With a large number of variables and potential players to select, bookmakers often have a tough time correctly setting golf markets. Likewise, daily fantasy golf providers often produce misprices.

In this article, I will provide a brief overview of my process. I provide some of the tools and key indicators I use to select my golf betting tips. Find out below why I am banned by multiple bookmakers.

2022 Golf Bets Tips Record

16 outright winners
DP World Tour +24% ROI
PGA Tour +26% ROI

The Essentials: Get the WinDaily Sports Edge

To make it easy, we have a fantastic team at WinDaily Sports who are here to do all that heavy lifting for you. With myself (@deepdivegolf), Sia (@sianejad), Joel (@draftmasterflex), and Spence (@teeoffsports) you have some of the best experts in the game to guide and coach you in your golf betting.

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Get coaching directly from our experts, chat directly with our team members, and ask any questions you may have. We can help provide guidance and our expert golf betting tips can help you identify the best selections every week. We also are happy to teach you the skills required to make you a consistent, winning player. Particularly, you will find up to date weather forecasting in the last 24 hours prior to a tournament which can be key to your success (or failure) in any given week.

WinDaily Golf Analysis Website Articles

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Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.

My articles provide in-depth golf analysis and golf betting picks for the tournament. I particularly see gaps in the market that provide an edge in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).

We also have fantastic weekly DFS ownership projections from Steven Spolardi (@spolardi) which are simply the best in class. These articles are on the WinDaily website and are essential for gaining ownership leverage, especially in large GPP tournaments. Example here: https://windailysports.com/the-pga-championship-ownership-projections/

Key Golf Betting Terms

This article works in conjunction with our “Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.

Before we get started on some of the processes I use, there are some key terms we need to know.

How are odds displayed for golf betting?

There are three main ways to display betting odds: decimal odds, fractional odds, and American odds.

In decimal odds, the amount is the total amount returned for every $1 bet. A $1 bet at odds of $10.00 will return $10.00. This is your original $1 stake plus $9 of profit.

In fractional odds, it is a ratio such as 14/1 (fourteen-to-one). They represent the profit won if the bet cashes. A $1 bet at those odds would return $15, being $14 of profit and the original $1 staked.

American odds vary whether a +/- sign is in front of the odds. Odds with a positive sign in front indicate the profit won on a $100 bet. +700 indicates that a bet of $100 will return $800, being the original $100 staked and $700 of profit.

If there is a negative sign in front of the number, this indicates the amount you would need to bet to win $100 of profit. Odds of -200 mean you would bet $200 to win $300 ($100 of profit plus the original stake). You will not often find these odds in golf pre-tournament other than in match-ups between two golfers.

Being based in New Zealand, I tend to use decimal odds when I provide my golf betting tips. I also denote my bets in units or points (pts). This means you can invest the amount that you feel comfortable spending.

What are the main types of golf bets I can make?

There are a few main markets that make up the majority of golf bets.

Outright Winner: Does what is says on the tin. You are betting the golfer to win the tournament.

Top Finish: Betting on a golfer to finish within specified number of places from the top of the leaderboard. Most bookmakers will release Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets for each tournament. Many will even offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, which can be a good option for betting outsiders.

Be aware that most bookmakers will apply dead-heat rules to such bets. This means if you place a Top 10 bet and your golfer ties for 10th exactly with 4 other golfers, your odds will be divided by 4.

Match-Up Bets: These bets typically pit two golfers against each other. They can be placed across the entirety of the tournament or occasionally for a single 18 hole round.

Prop Bets: Of course, there are also a large variety of prop (short for proposition) bets to investigate. For example, will there be a hole-in-one at the tournament? It is best to avoid these, especially when you first start in golf betting. They can be fun, but also are more unlikely to be predictable nor profitable.

What are Each-Way Golf Bets?

Many bookmakers, especially outside of the USA, will offer each-way (E/W) bets for golf. This bet actually consists of two bets: the golfer to win the tournament and the golfer to place. The place terms are always displayed. The most common place terms currently are 5 places at 1/4 odds and 8 places at 1/5 odds. Note that dead-heat rules will also apply if your player ties for the exact number of places on offer.

These provide great value and present you with better place odds compared to a typical top finish market. Think of it as a reward from the bookmaker for also making a win bet alongside your place bet.

For example, you pick Rory McIlroy to win a tournament. You take him at $20.00 E/W with place terms of 5 places at 1/4 odds. If McIlroy wins the tournament, you would collect both the win bet and the place bet. However, say McIlroy finishes in 3rd place. You would then win the place portion of your bet. In this instance, $20.00 divided by 4 would return place odds of $5.00. However, pre-tournament his Top 5 finish odds may only have been $3.50. You gave yourself the opportunity to cash an outright win ticket, but also were rewarded with better place odds as a result.

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage. It indicates what the bookmakers believe to be the chance of a result occurring. You can calculate implied probability using the following formula:

(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability

There are also various websites that will perform this calculation for you.

For example, the odds for Jon Rahm are $20.00 (19/1 or +1900) to win a particular golf tournament. The bookmakers are saying they believe Rahm has a 5% chance to win the tournament.

What is Expected Value?

Every time you place a bet, your selection has an “expected value” or “EV”. In short, this indicates what you can expect the bet to win (or lose) if made over a long time frame at the same odds. A positive EV bet is a winning play. We expect it to return a positive amount over the long-run if made time and again. Conversely, a negative EV bet is one we expect to lose over time.

Tip 1: Look to bet value and think long-term

The biggest golf betting mistake I see is trying to pick the winner every week. This may seem slightly counter-intuitive at first. I mean, we want to pick winning golfers, right? The fact is, you can make a bad bet and win money. You can also make a good bet and lose money. Let me explain.

Pre-tournament, you decide that given your analysis Justin Thomas will play well this week. You place a outright win bet on him to win at odds of $40.00. This bet has an implied probability of 2.5% or one-in-forty times.

Negative EV

Say that the correct chance for Justin Thomas to win was 2% or one-in-fifty times. Whether Thomas wins or loses the tournament is actually irrelevant. This is a negative EV bet. The more times that you place the bet, then the more times you will lose than win over time. Even if Thomas does win the tournament, you still made a negative EV bet.

Positive EV

Let’s look at the opposite. Say that you know Thomas has been working with a new swing coach, he recently shot a low round at a similar style of course, plays well in the wind and you can see in the forecast strong winds are forecast. He is the wrong price with bookmakers and his fair odds are actually $33.00 or an implied probability of 3%.

Again, irrespective of the result, this is a bet that we want to make. It has a positive EV and, over the long-term, will win you money. Even if Thomas doesn’t win the tournament, you made a positive EV bet.

Short-priced favourites

You will rarely find that the top few golfers in the market present positive EV opportunities. The bookmakers know the majority of casual armchair golf punters will tend towards the top of the board. They will bet stars, names that they know, and golfers they want to cheer for. Bookmakers need to mitigate this risk and also boost their profits. Especially when odds are very short, you are unlikely to be getting any value.

My role is helping you to identify positive EV spots. I provide golf betting tips where the actual chance of a golfer winning is higher than the implied probability currently on offer. This is the only way to win in golf betting in the long-term.

Tip 2: Structure your golf betting carefully and precisely

People structure their golf bets in many different ways. You often find people betting a certain amount on every bet they make. Others will bet an amount in order to win a specific value. For example, they bet an amount required to win $1,000 at the odds on offer.

The optimal way to structure your bets should be based upon the difference between the implied probability and the actual probability of the event occurring. If the margin is wider between the two figures, then you should bet more. Your confidence interval will be higher. Essentially, based upon your analysis you are more confident of an edge to true odds existing and you want to push that advantage. If the edge is smaller, then you should bet less.

You will find with my golf betting tips through WinDaily Sports that I provide suggested staking. I will indicate what type of bet to make and how many units or points (pts) I recommend on each option. This makes it easy for you to construct your golf betting card ahead of the tournament.

How do I read the suggested staking provided for golf betting?

Let’s look at the below example of how my suggested staking is used:

Tom Kim
1pt E/W $40.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.50

In the above, my recommended bet is to stake 1 point E/W (1 unit to Win and 1 unit to Place). The place terms are indicated in brackets. The bookmaker has offered 8 places, with 1/5th the win odds if Tom Kim finishes in the Top 8. I also recommend 3 units on a Top 20 bet at $3.50.

Whatever you choose to make the value of your unit is up to you. 1 unit could be $5, $10, or $100. It really depends on what you are comfortable with and the size of your bank roll.

I would recommend always betting less than a maximum of 5% of your total allocated betting bank roll on any given tournament. You will encounter losing streaks and we do not advocate a “get rich quick” scheme. You will run into cash flow issues if you are betting too much of your bank roll on a given week. Instead, aim for a sustained systematic approach which leads to you growing your bankroll.

Most importantly, never bet more than you can lose. WinDaily Sports is a great community and we want you to be having fun. So, if it no longer is, then stop.

Tip 3: Top Finish Bets and Match-Ups are your bread and butter

I get it. Win bets are sexy. There is nothing better than placing your bets to then see one of your golfers come through to lift the trophy. It is even better when they are paying triple-figure odds!

The reality is that the wins you collect on your place and match-up bets are what will keep your wheels greased. Picking winning golfers is not easy. There are 140+ golfers who play in most tournaments and only one will ever win. And, even when you are regularly placing positive EV bets, it will sometimes be many weeks between win bets. Remember, you are looking at the long-term and following your process.

What you should be aiming for is to regularly be cashing place and match-up bets. One, this will mean that you are usually breaking even or making a small profit every week. When you do achieve a win bet, you will then reap the rewards and a larger profit. This keeps your cash flow positive and ensures you don’t lose your entire bankroll chasing Hail Mary win only bets.

Secondly, if you are regularly seeing your golfers place in the top end of the leaderboard that is a positive sign. There is still an element of luck in golf. The bounce of a ball, a few putts that just lip out, or a random gust of wind can be the difference between 1st and 20th. The more often your golfers are ending up in a position to potentially complete a victory, the better.

Tip 4: Meteorology and Agronomy

Meteorology

When looking at golf betting analysis, you need to continuously monitor the weather. It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few golf bettors will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Check the weather when initially analyzing the tournament. Check the weather in the last 24 hours before first tee-times. Basically, check the weather continuously before and throughout the tournament.

As mentioned in my DFS 101 article, you can get an edge depending when golfers tee off. Tee-times typically of two distinct groupings between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time. If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.

Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate.

At WinDaily, we use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can. I’m here to make this easy for you and provide the best information available. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord, particularly in the 24 hours prior to tournament start, to give yourself an edge!

Agronomy

You also want to check the condition of the course. Many courses on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour have been on the circuit for many decades. This brings with it a wealth of data that you can delve into (but you still want to pay attention to any changes ahead of the tournament, such as longer rough or reshaping of certain holes).

However, there are always a few new courses to interpret each season. Three of the four golf majors – the PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship (or British Open) – are often played on courses that have not been played on professionally for several years if ever. I always recommend for new courses to find video flyovers, photos, and watch interviews. You want to try to get a feel for the course and what type of player it may suit.

Grass Types

Grass type also makes a difference. This is particularly true on the greens, where different types of golf can see varying performance by golfers. The most common greens are Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Paspalum.

Bermuda is found commonly in Florida and typically in warmer climates. It can be somewhat easier to read. Bentgrass is typically found in areas which have cooler summers and in coastal areas. Poa Annua has a reputation for getting bumpy in the afternoon and can be tricky to putt on. Paspalum is a very sturdy grass that is highly resistant to salt. It is generally only found in coastal and tropical courses. Being a hardy grass, it can grab the ball more than other surfaces and prove sticky.

You want to pay particular attention to prevailing wind, wind gusts, any rain forecast, and ground condition. A dry, firm course in windy conditions will play a lot more difficult to a soft course in calm conditions. This can influence both tee-time stacks, but also the type of golfer you want to look for.

Tip 5: Look for Live In-Play Golf Betting Opportunities

There remains great opportunities for live in-play golf betting. As mentioned, there are a huge number of factors that bookmakers need to take into account. Not only are there a huge number of players to account for, but bookmakers also need to know where they each are on the course. They are often too slow to react and adjust their odds. Often bookmakers identify the number of holes a golfer has left in the round and not account for whether those holes are potential birdie holes, for example.

Weather can play a factor for in-play bet opportunities. With tournaments typically running over four rounds, the weather can change quickly from a Thursday to Sunday. For example, we spotted a potential weather edge develop recently at the Italian Open. Saturday afternoon was suddenly forecast for very high winds. This meant golfers further back on the leaderboard and teeing off earlier Saturday morning were going to enjoy easier scoring conditions. We tipped Robert MacIntyre live in-play, who managed to take advantage of the conditions and went on to win the tournament at odds of 125/1.

Tip 6: Identify Key Improvements in Stoke Gained Trends

If you’re new to Strokes Gained and have not read my Golf DFS 101 article, head over for a basic run-down on Strokes Gained here.

Per that article, ball-striking metrics tend to be “stickier”. If a golfer has made recent improvement in their approach play, this is more likely to be retained to subsequent tournaments. This is one of the key trends I always look for in players that appear to be a good course fit. I also like to identify whether the increase in SG: APP has been linked with recent improvement in driving accuracy. These two metrics combined give an indication that the golfer’s swing is in good shape and they are striking the ball well.

If a player has made recent improvement in SG: APP, driving accuracy, and if they have previous positive course form, that is a situation I want to pay close attention to. Do be aware to check how recent those performances were, as you will want to give less weighting to tournaments which were a month or longer ago.

Putting statistics are not that important (usually) for golf betting

SG: PUTT, followed by SG: ATG, is the most volatile metric. So much of short-game comes down to touch, feel, and confidence. Putts can be off by a mere centimeter and miss, or a golfer can get hot and suddenly make every putt they see.

Yes, there are better putters than others. But, as a rule, a recent hot putting performance does not necessarily mean they will putt well the next tournament. I prefer to see a longer stretch of improved putting before I start giving credence to the fact that the golfer has actually made some permanent gains with the flat-stick.

Regression to the mean

One of the biggest mistakes I see bettors making is not comparing recent improvements to a golfer’s longer term baseline. If Viktor Hovland is hitting the ball well on approach, that is almost a given as he is one of the best iron player’s in the game. We expect him to hit the ball well on approach. However, if Hovland starts hitting more fairways with his driver or making improvements in his SG: ATG, then I am beginning to get interested.

Likewise, if a golfer has had a great week putting, we would expect the golfer to experience regression towards their mean. As putting is more volatile, we typically also experience this regression more quickly. Basically, we would expect the golfer’s form to return towards their average baseline.

Summary

There are a huge number of factors that goes into successful golf analysis. The majority can’t, or simply won’t, put in the time required to be able to identify positive EV golf betting opportunities. It always pays to remember that it is the bookmakers job to analyze golf tournaments better than you to set fair pricing. At WinDaily, we are here to help and give you that winning edge!

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2 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA

122nd US Open: Course Analysis and Weather Deep-Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

We are back for our third major of the year at the US Open, following perhaps one of the most interesting weeks in recent golfing history. In the current climate, it is hard to avoid the controversy coming out of the Saudi Arabian sports-washing that is the LIV Golf tour and it will be an interesting sideshow to observe how the notoriously rowdy Boston crowds will greet the defectors that tee it up this week.

The RBC Canadian Open played out just as well as it could have for the PGA Tour. A star-studded final grouping of Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, and eventual winner Rory McIlroy provided can’t miss action that easily surpassed LIV Golf’s viewership numbers. McIlroy later revealing his motivation in his victory interview being the win took him past Greg Norman’s 20 PGA Tour wins was the icing on the cake and one most golf fans would have enjoyed. Perhaps Norman’s new 54-hole tournament provides a nod to his ability to blow a 3-round lead, but the PGA Tour will be absolutely thrilled with how the narrative ended.

As ecstatic as the PGA Tour would have been with the results, it was a week of “what could have been” for our tips. Top pick Matthew Fitzpatrick bolted out of the gates with 4 birdies in 5 holes to sit one shot off the lead after the first round, only to do nothing from there. The pivotal moment came in the second round when Fitzpatrick held a three-shot lead and had every chance to run away with it only to close with a run of double bogey, birdie, and 3 bogeys in his last 5 holes on Friday effectively taking him out of contention mentally.

Brendon Todd and Aaron Rai finished just one shot off a Top 10 placing for us at odds of $8.00 and $8.50, John Huh finished two shots off a Top 20 at odds of $7.50, and Ryan Armour entered the third round in 19th but could not keep up with an extremely low scoring final day not playing to his strengths.

All in all, it is hard to begrudge a leader board where the favourites rose to the top at a time when they perhaps most needed to send a strong message to the rival Saudi golf league: that the best golfers in the world will continue to play on the PGA Tour. And as much as the LIV Golf commentators loved to wax lyrical about how every putt could potentially earn XYZ dollars for the golfer, we saw a Canadian Open tournament that meant something with passion, history, and legacy all at stake. The hordes of fans rushing the 18th green indicate that this still means a great deal.

As we look to Brookline, Massachusetts for our penultimate major of the year, another opportunity arises for someone to build such a legacy. Who should you bet for the 122nd US Open? This is your weekly golf deep dive and betting tips.

Course Analysis

The Country Club provides host for the 122nd US Open and promises to be a challenging venue that should make for fantastic viewing. Playing as a 7,264-yard par-70 course, on paper it may not appear to be one of the longest renditions of this tournament. This is partly deceptive. I do understand the narrative many other tipsters have followed, highlighting how driving accuracy will be imperative to avoid the penal rough lining these narrowing fairways.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9e_CnoWUYg

Discounting driving distance totally would be a mistake. The course provides one very short par 3 at 131 yards, alongside several shorter par 4s complimented by longer par4s and a monster par 5 as a result. Of those holes, they measure as follows:

1st: Polo Field | Par 4 | 488 yards
3rd: Pond | Par 4 | 499 yards
4th: Newton | Par 4 | 493 yards
5th: Bakers | Par 4 | 310 yards
7th: Corner | Par 4 | 375 yards
8th: Quarry | Par 5 | 557 yards
10th: Himalayas | Par 4 | 499 yards
14th: Primrose 8 | Par 5 | 619 yards
15th: Liverpool | Par 4 | 510 yards
17th: Elbow | Par 4 | 373 yards

I much prefer looking at a total driving aspect entering this week, with so many holes providing the potential for a long driver to gain advantages over the field if they can keep it in the short grass. The rough that greets is a real mix of perennial rye, Kentucky Bluegrass, Poa Annua, and thick fescue if you stray far enough.

Holding the greens will remain a challenge, and even more so from the rough, with the greens on offer providing miniscule targets. At an average of just 4,388 sq ft these are the second smallest ever in major championship history (behind only Pebble Beach as the exception) and, in fact, are some of the smallest on PGA Tour (Harbour Town the only other I am aware of). The course superintendent has also promised greens to run at a speedy 12 on the stimpmeter and should be firm further adding to the problem golfers will face.

Miss the green and you’ll be greeted again with either thick rough, one of the many deep bunkers that surround in droves, or “chocolate drops” which are essentially piles of leftovers rocks during construction that have grown over with grass. Even when you find the flat surface, highly undulated and quick greens promise to make even short putts worthy of attention. To the eye, comparisons to links courses and The Open Championship are certainly understandable.

All up a highly penal test of a golfer’s entire game is on the cards, which will provide a high level of volatility and a win at single figures the most likely outcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhL63C86ylw

Weather

In addition to the natural variance which comes with this course setup, gusty winds promise to add further volatility to this week.

Of the conditions, Thursday morning provides the best opportunities with winds of just 2-8mph and gusts at a moderate 8-16mph. Thursday PM sees the highest winds of the first two days, prevailing at 12-15mph and gust of 25-30mph could prove significant when targeting these tiny greens.

Friday conditions should be consistent all day, with winds of 9-12mph and gusts of 18-28mph throughout the day. There is a small chance of rain Friday afternoon which may provide some very welcome softening of conditions.

Winds should continue to play a factor across the weekend, with little reprieve forecast and winds between 8-11mph with gusts at 20-25mph throughout.

https://www.windy.com/42.314/-71.150/wind?41.747,-71.147,8,m:ePGaecA

There is an edge here for the Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. I will be playing this near exclusively, with the only divergence from this strategy done so for specific reasons.

To view my golf betting tips and player analysis, head over to here: https://windailysports.com/122nd-us-open-golf-betting-tips-long-shots-and-player-profiles/?ref=31

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3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Open Championship

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This week’s PGA DFS picks article should help you find some winning combinations and focus your player pool for the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Field of 156 golfers including the best players in the world
36-hole Cut: Top 70 and ties play the weekend
No 2020 tourney; Defending (2019) champion: Shane Lowry (-15)
The course: Royal St. George’s Golf Club (Sandwich, England)
- 7,268 yards, Par 70
- Traditional seaside venue that can be affected by drastic wind changes and weather
- Bentgrass greens
- Tough links style course with deep bunkers and some OB providing a challenge
- Some blind tee shots and plenty of humps and bumps that can send balls off track
- Just two par 5s and four Par 3s – so Par 70 specialists could fare well
- Length not that important, as most par 4s are in the 400-475 range
Wind and rain expected, with 20-25 MPH gusts blowing on Saturday and Sunday
Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, Par 70 (and links) performance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Despite the lack of a top 10 finish at the Open Championship (his best finish was a T11 at Royal Troon in 2016), Rahm enters the week as the betting favorite and highest priced PGA DFS golfer in the field. There’s no real weakness to his game; he currently leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring – and ranks second in SG: T2G. His ball-striking has been on point this season, he loves links courses and he’s in play for all formats this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,900) – I refuse to give up on Rory and think he’s a good GPP play this week in the wake of the missed cut at the Scottish Open – which he jumped into a little late because his wife and child are still stateside. He may end up being the lowest-owned golfer in the $10K+ range and that’s what we’re looking for since his upside is still in the trophy-hoisting territory. “Rors” is both familiar with this giant-killer venue (T25 here in 2011) and the elements that could stymie a large portion of the PGA DFS field.

Brooks Koepka ($10,700) – Because of his impressive history in majors (four wins in the past five years) and the Open Championship (three top 10s since 2015), Koepka isn’t cheap, but he’s a fine GPP play. The polarizing figure was a 13-year-old spectator in 2003 when Ben Curtis won at Royal St. George’s, and while he said Tuesday morning (in an interview that had the NYT writing about it) that while this isn’t his favorite British Open venue in the venerable rotation, there’s no reason to leave him off your builds with his uncanny ability to compete in the world’s biggest tournaments.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – The former Open champion (2017 at Royal Birkdale) is impressive on links courses and has the requisite elements to his game is solid form heading into this week’s test. We have plenty of options in the $7,000-7,500 range this week if we’re rostering Rahm-Spieth to start, and if we’re fading Rahm there’s a great route to balanced builds that start with Spieth as the highest spend ($8K+ remining per golfer). I’ll be hoping to land around 25-40% ownership in GPPs.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,300) – There’s not much more to say about the former Open champion than what Sia said in his U.S. Open Initial picks piece and what I covered in the picks column leading into Torrey Pines, when he finished solo second after being edged out by Rahm. He’s not playing in the Olympics, so this tournament has to be an important one for him as he continues playing solid golf in the late summer/early autumn of his fantastic career. He’s a guy I love in basically all the majors for PGA DFS, but I know he’ll be popular this week.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – Hovland – the No. 14 golfer in the world – became the first Norwegian winner in the history of the European tour when he prevailed at the BMW International Open in Germany a couple weeks ago, and his steady play and positive attitude should help him navigate the inexorable bounces and bumps of Royal St. George’s. The only drawback is his last of experience, as this will be his Open Championship debut, and it’s one of those things that’s got Sia concerned, as he explains in the breakdown.

Patrick Reed ($8,800) – While I’m a little skeptical that Reed can endure the elements and win the Open Championship, he’s certainly in play at this low price because of his ability to finish in the top 15. The form isn’t great, and his accuracy could be a problem here, but the ironically nicknamed “Captain America” loves to play the villain and he’s a shrewd large-field GPP play with an elite short game.

Paul Casey (DK $8,600) – Casey disappointed with a T54 at this venue in 2011 (a third-round 78 the main culprit), and his Open Championship finishes have left a bit to be desired through the years. But he’s a much more consistent golfer these days and has six top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments, so I like his chances for a top 10 this week, especially at this relatively fair price.

Tony Finau (DK $8,400) – I’ve said “never again” after being burned by Terrible Tony many times, but the talent level is off the charts and the price is a reasonable one despite two straight MCs at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Finau has not missed a cut at the Open Championship in four tries, and three of those attempts have yielded Top 20 finishes (solo third in 2019, T9 in 2018, T18 in 2016). He probably circled this on the schedule the minute he trudged off the 18th green at Torrey Pines, and I will be surprised (and angry) if he sabotages my GPP lineups again this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $7,900) – As you may have noticed if you’re a regular reader of PGA DFS Picks, Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite golfers to roster in single-entry and all types of GPPs, and I’ll continue that approach this week at Royal St. George’s – a venue where he should thrive – despite the disappointment of coming off a playoff loss to Min Woo Lee at the Scottish Open. His best finish in the Open Championship was the most recent iteration in 2019 (T20), and I believe he’s ready to break through with a top 10 (or better) this time around – when distance is not as important (it’s even shorter than it was in 2011) and he can plot his way around the golf course. In fact, Fitzpatrick came here last year (after having been told that he wasn’t going to enjoy it because of the blind shots and uneven lies) shot 67 and loved the course.

Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – The defending champion is under $8K this week, and that alone puts him in play in all formats, even if he’s exceedingly popular. Lowry performs well in weather and wind, and he was the only player who didn’t collapse in the gale-force gusts that plagued the final round at Royal Portrush Golf Club in 2019. There’s plenty of PGA DFS upside in this price range, and both Fitzpatrick and Lowry make for fine core plays in all kinds of builds.

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,600) – His last Top 5 at a British Open came in 2016, but he finished T9 here in 2011. He’s far from a safe play and I wouldn’t touch him in cash games despite the low price, but he’s a great GPP option given his upside and the dynamic quality of game and ball-striking prowess. He’s had a hard time closing things out this season, with some good rounds giving way to PGA DFS tumbles over the weekend, but he’s in play at this venue in large-field GPPs.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Francesco Molinari (DK $7,300) – The talented Italian won the Open Championship in 2018 and finished T11 in 2019 – impressive finishes that show he can handle links style courses with the best of them. He missed the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011, but a decade of additional experience in major championships should help him this week.

Harris English (DK $7,300) – English has piled up the top 10 finishes this season (seven), and he’s one of just five golfers to notch two wins on tour this season. In the focus stats/metrics, he checks some crucial boxes for Royal St. George’s, ranking eighth in SG:T2G and seventh in Bogey Avoidance over his past three tournaments. He’s also missed the weekend just once in five Open appearances and has made cuts in 13 consecutive majors – something that makes him a solid play for single-entry and cash games as well as large-field GPPs.

Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – Fowler is teeing it up in his 11th Open Championship, with only one MC at this event (and three finishes of T6 or better – including a T2 from 2014 and a T5 at Royal St. George’s in 2011. That level of experience is a big help, and he’s finally rounding into form after a rough stretch in late 2020/early 2021. The fan favorite has now secured a weekend pass in three of his last four starts (T8, T11, MC and T32) and the impressive T8 was at the year’s second major – the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.

Robert MacIntyre (DK $7,300) – MacIntyre is right there with the rest of the high-upside players at this price point, even if PGA Tour golf fans aren’t that familiar with his record. Bobby Mac impressed at the Royal Portrush in 2019 at his Open Championship (and major tournament) debut, concluding in difficult conditions with a final round 68 and eventual T6 finish. He’s now ranked No. 53 in the world, making the cut at five straight majors – a T12 at the Masters this April his best major finish since the 2019 Open. MacIntyre shot under par in all four rounds last week and posted a T18 at the Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open – a links with at least a passing resemblance to Royal St. George’s. Excluding a COVID-related withdrawal at the Irish Open recently, The Scotsman has made a remarkable 25 of his last 26 cuts worldwide and may even be viable in cash games this week.

Branden Grace (DK $7,200) – Grace is usually hit-or-miss in major championships, but he arrives sporting some good form due to some sparkling iron play over his last dozen or so rounds. He has a history of going low at the Open, dating back to his 62 in Round three Saturday at Royal Birkdale in 2017 – when he finished T6 with Koepka, Marc Leishman, Alex Noren and Matthew Southgate at -4. The 33-year-old South African also finished inside the top 20 at the Open Championship in 2015, and arrives at this week’s edition on the heels of two consecutive top seven finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,200) – Since missing the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011 (which surely sticks in his craw), Poulter has a spotty history at the Open Championship with five MCs and three top 15s – a testament to his dynamic play and viability as a GPP play. His 2021 record is actually a lot more steady: Since the PGA Championship, he’s 6-for-6 with two top five finishes including T4 at the Scottish open this past week.

Alex Noren (DK $7,200) – Noren has a distinguished record at the Open Championship, finishing T11 with Rahm, JT, Molinari and Tom Lewis in 2019 and earning top 10s in 2017 and 2012. He’s also finished among the top 15 (including a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic) in two of the past three starts, sporting excellent T2G numbers in that stretch. I wouldn’t pencil him into all my single-entry lineups, but I’m willing to take as stab in the lower-fee SE and in all types of large-field GPPs.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,000) – Kuchar is my choice for sneaky veteran bargain play – especially on a course that’s not all about mashing and/or the traditional “target” golf that’s played on a lot of the modern stateside venues. He’s fared well at the open Championship in the past and finished solo second at Royal Birkdale in 2017. In fact, he’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts in this tournament (and eight straight), the only outlier being the 2011 edition at – you guessed it – Royal St. George’s. The revenge narrative is strong this week and Kuchar should be low-owned with Top 10 upside.

Lucas Herbert (DK $6,800) – The woefully mispriced Herbert won at the Irish Open two weeks ago and notched a T4 in Scotland last week, so he’s in fine form heading into the Open. The plucky Australian also finished inside the top 20 at a couple of relatively prestigious PGA Tour events – the Memorial and the Travelers. He’s now won a couple times in his past 23 starts worldwide and should offer plenty of value as you construct your builds this week.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,600) – Hey – it’s another cheap Lucas! Glover is coming off a huge win at the John Deere Classic, snapping a winning drought that lasted over 10 years, and he should be excited about playing a course where he posted his best-ever finish at the Open Championship – a T12 in 2011. Winning two weeks in a row and collecting just his second major championship is a tall order – no doubt – but he’s a risk-reward play that won’t cost you very much to roster.

More value golfers to consider: Phil Mickelson (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (GPP), Thomas Detry, Matt Wallace, Russell Henley (GPP), Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners (GPP), Danny Willett, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Stewart Cink, Richard Bland, Adam Long (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Justin Harding (DK $6,500) – More of a single day (first-round?) showdown longshot, Justin Harding heads into the 2021 The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s Golf Club with insanely long (+35000) odds to win, but he’s in play due to the fact that he made the cut and finished 41st in his last appearance at this event in 2019, and he’s super cheap. I’m targeting him for 1/20 GPP entries.

Chris Kirk (DK $6,400) – Kirk made three of his last five cuts, but he’s 17-for-23 this season – decent for a golfer under $6,500. While he missed the cut during his last British Open appearance in 2016, he’s a much better golfer now and should be up to the challenge personally and professionally. Like Harding, I’ll find a place for him in 1/20 large-field GPP entries.

Johannes Veerman (DK $6,100) – Veerman posted a T3 at the Irish Open two weeks ago and is coming off a T8 at the Scottish Open, so the form is solid. He’s seemingly a fans of links-style courses and while he’s a virtual unknown who could boom or bust this week, the price is dirt cheap and he’s one of the better low-cost options in the $6K range – which we’ll need to peruse if we’re going full-on stars and scrubs. He might be my favorite play under $6,600, so I’m willing to click him into 5-10% of my large-field GPPs (and one or two of my 20-max entries).

Additional GPP punts: Sebastian Munoz, Carlos Ortiz, Marcus Armitage, Jason Scrivener, Sam Burns, Chan Kim

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Insight Sheet: Travelers Championship

John Ryan 5 years ago

written by John Ryan

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the Travelers Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Players priced $10,000 and higher

These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.

Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 22%)
Rory McIlroy $11,200 (M6, 13%)

I have no problem with Justin Thomas as he’s my #1 ranked player this week. For me its a player pool construction exclusion only and JT will be the player I fear the most come Thursday.

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M8, 15%) – Cantlay is making his debut since the break at the Travelers Championship. I’m assuming he would be priced in the 10K range if he had played prior. He has great tournament history with back to back T15. His absence is a bit worrisome but being an elite player, I hope he can shake the rust off quickly.

Collin Morikawa $9,100 (MT9, 19%) – Morikawa flamed out in the last round at the RBC Heritage but that doesn’t seem to bother anyone. His ownership is at his cap and perhaps should be pushed to cash game consideration. I guy I ALWAYS roster, this week won’t be any different.

Xander Schauffele $9,600 (M14, 13%) – If you followed me in the discord last week or on twitter, Schauffele cost me a $555 ticket. No hard feelings though and he’s back on the team. Top 10 odds to win and is at sub 15% ownership, is more then ideal.

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Patrick Reed $8,700 (M4, 12%) – Reed burned a lot of people last week by missing the cut, including myself. Tie that with the fact a lot of chalk is in the upper 8K range, it’s no surprise of his low ownership. Reed is top ten in recent form, tournament history and hole performance. I feel there is a big bounce back for Reed and possibly a win.

Gary Woodland $8,300 (M9T, 15%) – Woodland hasn’t done anything spectacular at the Travelers Championship but has made three straight cuts. Woodland almost made my cash game consideration. Combine the course history and recent form with his top 10 ball striking skills and its easy to see why he’s 15% owned.

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Billy Horschel $7,300 (M28, 4%) – Horschel is coming in with top 25 stats in recent form (despite the MC last week), comp courses and ball striking. Horschel has the 21st best odds in Vegas despite being priced as the 35th golfer on DraftKings for the Travelers Championship.

Kevin Kisner $7,700 (M30, 4%) – Kisner came in around 18% owned last week and missed the cut on the number. This week people seem to be still resenting him with the sub 5% ownership. With a great short game, if Kisner can do some damage with his ball striking, watch out.

Scottie Scheffler $7,600 (M38, 14%) – Scheffler withdrew last week but before hand made three straight cuts with two top 30 finishes. Vegas loves him and that alone is why im breaking my Ownership/Pricing rules (Can be seen in the PGA Research Tab in Discord). As one of the top DK scorers in the field, I’ll take my chances.

Jason Day $7,500 (M37, 6%) – Getting a player like Day at such low ownership, always tickles my fancy. His current form is well…garbage. His tournament history though is with two back to back T15. Probably a better bet then DK play but you won’t need much to be overweight on the field.

Players priced $6,900 and lower

Vaughn Taylor $6,500 (M15, 3%) – Four made cuts with a top 5 in 2019. Taylor started off strong last week, but couldn’t finish the same way over the weekend. A grinder with upside I would be surprised if Taylor doesn’t finish in the top 20 this week at the Travelers Championship.

Ryan Moore $6,900 (M21, 5%) – Moore does not have the greatest recent form like Day. Again though, when it comes to the tournament Moore has performed well. With 2 cuts out of three visits, those two weekends ended with top top 20s. At the price he helps getting the more expensive players in your lineup and comes with upside.

Cash Game Plays / Single Entry GPP

I wanted to show plays you could build a lineup around for 50/50, double ups, etc in partnership with the plays above. These are plays that I like but are too high owned for my preference in big GPPs. While these plays may get mixed in, they are designated for cash games more. These ownership numbers are reflective of bigger tournaments and will most certainly be higher in Cash / SE games.

Last week they went 6/6 making the cut. Lets see if we can do it again for the Travelers Championship.

Abraham Ancer $9.000 (M20, 21%)
Paul Casey $8,900 (M3, 18%)
Sungjae Im $8,600 (M22, 21%)
Sergio Garcia $8,500 (M32, 14%)
Tony Finau $8,200 (M35, 16%)
Marc Leishman $8,000 (M26, 16%)
Victor Hovland $7,800 (M16, 22%)

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Travelers Championship. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

5 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Insight Sheet: RBC Heritage at Harbour Town GL

Patrick Waters 5 years ago

written by Patrick Waters

The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the RBC Heritage. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.

Players priced $10,000 and up | DraftKings

These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.

Rory McIlroy $11,300 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 16%)
Jon Rahm $10,500 (M3, 14%)
Xander Schauffele $10,200 (M4, 12%)

I didn’t like DeChambeau like most of the top guys last week as I thought he was a poor fit, I was wrong. Despite that though, I’m doubling down and avoiding him this week as well at the RBC Heritage. Thomas is an elite player with an amazing iron game, which this course demands. He ranks outside of the other big names, though barley, and he’s off my list simply due to lineup construction. Morikawa is my boy and I’ll have a few shares in my 150 lineup tournament, but that missed 3ft putt might weigh on him and force him to press.

Players priced between $9,900 and $8,500 | DraftKings

Sungjae Im $9,700 (M5, 22%) – I was on Im last week and he payed off well finishing 15th in points. The price hike is not scaring anyone away though as he is one of the highest owned golfers this week. He’s certainly the highest projected ownership on my team though. Im comes in top 15 in pretty much everything: Ball Striking, Scoring, Performance, Around the Green and Odds. All of this can be found here.

Hideki Matsuyama $9,500 (M6, 12%) – Matsuyama didn’t play last week and if you look through my pool, he’s the only one. With that said, his game sets up perfectly for Harbour Town GL. The only reason he made it was the last time we saw him, Matsuyama was on FIRE at THE PLAYERS (another Pete Dye course). His sub 15% ownership certainly helps as well.

Patrick Reed $8,800 (M10, 16%) – The public’s persona of Reed must be finally wearing off as his ownership keeps climbing. Reed can light up a DK scoreboard, which was on display last week. He finished in the top 10 and second to only Berger, despite 20 less finishing points. Reed might be entering core territory for this week.

Players priced between $8,400 and $7,600 | DraftKings

Abraham Ancer $8,000 (M22, 10%) – I’ve always been hesitant to play Ancer in the past but starting with his play at the President’s Cup, he’s been making waves. He followed it up with three top 25 finishes in the American Express, WGC Mexico and last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Ancer is the perfect pivot from Hatton (who I do like) with roughly half the ownership and he actually played last week.

Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,900 (M14, 9%) – Fitzpatrick was just heating up before the break with a 9th place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Before that he didn’t have the best finishes, though he made the cut and was trending in the right direction. If he can capture his 2019 finish where he went 4/5 top 20, at sub 10% ownership, Fitzpatrick could be a sneaky good play.

Shane Lowry $7,800 (M23, 6%) – Lowry burned us last week but prior had two top 30 in 2020. His approach game could be better but he has a good short game to compensate. His game once again should translate well here at the RBC Heritage but I said that last week. Won’t need many shares to be overweight.

Billy Horschel $7,700 (M20, 10%) – Horschel is just a solid golfer all around. His 2020 didn’t start the best (MC and 68th finish) but since went 9, 9, 42, 36 and 38th last week. He has the 16th best odds despite being the 26th priced player on DraftKings. Horschel has been averaging 3.6 strokes T2G his last five tournaments and is a better putter on Bermuda.

Ian Poulter $7,600 (M24, 8%) – Poulter was almost a cash play, thinking his ownership would be higher (more on that later). At sub 10%, I don’t know what more you want from a golfer in this price range. Third in strokes gained total for the tournament with three top 15 finishes the last three years. Eight made cuts dating back to last year. His best putting surface…Bermuda! He’s not the biggest DK scorer but at $7,600 you won’t need much to cover.

Players priced between $7,500 and $7,000 | DraftKings

Adam Hadwin $7,300 (M13, 7%) – Hadwin has made the cut at Harbour Town GL the last three times out with two top 30. Hadwin doesn’t do anything special but is a grinder. I won’t have a lot of Hadwin but down here in this price range, you could do worse.

Harris English $7,300 (M17, 6%) – Talk about recency bias, Harris was 18% owned last week, sub 10% now?? Yes please! Before the MC last week he was coming in with three top 20, including a 9th place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Not only was he on a tear before the break but he also has a 25th place finish at last year’s RBC Heritage. Core piece, I think so.

Bud Cauley $7,200 (M19, 8%) – With five straight made cuts coming into Harbour Town GL, Cauley looks like a very safe bet. Perhaps he doesn’t have the upside to win, but he can land a top 10 if his putter gets hot. Cauley has the 14th best strokes gained total for the tournament and has solid recent form with a 29th showing last week.

Cash Game Plays / Single Entry GPP | DraftKings

**New this week, I wanted to show plays you could build a lineup around for 50/50, double ups, etc in partnership with the plays above. These are plays that I like but are too high owned for my preference in big GPPs. While these plays may get mixed in, they are designated for cash games more.**

Justin Rose $9,200 (M43, 15%)
Webb Simpson $9,000 (M18, 25%)
Gary Woodland $8,400 (M11, 19%)
Matt Kuchar $8,300 (M27, 15%)
Tony Finau $8,200 (M26, 15%)
Joel Dahmen $7,500 (M15, 11%)

Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town GL. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!

5 years ago 0 comments

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Players priced $10,000 and higher

Players priced between $9,900 and $9,000

Players priced between $8,900 and $8,000

Players priced between $7,900 and $7,000

Players priced $6,900 and lower

Cash Game Plays / Single Entry GPP

Players priced $10,000 and up | DraftKings

Players priced between $9,900 and $8,500 | DraftKings

Players priced between $8,400 and $7,600 | DraftKings

Players priced between $7,500 and $7,000 | DraftKings

Cash Game Plays / Single Entry GPP | DraftKings

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