Golf betting can be tricky. The majority of fields have 140+ golfers to chose from, every week there is a different course to study, and it is perhaps the sport most exposed to the elements.
However, this also presents opportunity. With a large number of variables and potential players to select, bookmakers often have a tough time correctly setting golf markets. Likewise, daily fantasy golf providers often produce misprices.
In this article, I will provide a brief overview of my process. I provide some of the tools and key indicators I use to select my golf betting tips. Find out below why I am banned by multiple bookmakers.
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Within the WinDaily wesbite, you can find all manner of weekly articles for both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour.
My articles provide in-depth golf analysis and golf betting picks for the tournament. I particularly see gaps in the market that provide an edge in DP World Tour tournaments, with weather forecasting, as well as player and course analysis. You can view my proven winning record on my Twitter page (@deepdivegolf).
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This article works in conjunction with our “Golf DFS 101: How To Win More At Golf DFS” article. If you have not read that article yet, you can find it here.
Before we get started on some of the processes I use, there are some key terms we need to know.
There are three main ways to display betting odds: decimal odds, fractional odds, and American odds.
In decimal odds, the amount is the total amount returned for every $1 bet. A $1 bet at odds of $10.00 will return $10.00. This is your original $1 stake plus $9 of profit.
In fractional odds, it is a ratio such as 14/1 (fourteen-to-one). They represent the profit won if the bet cashes. A $1 bet at those odds would return $15, being $14 of profit and the original $1 staked.
American odds vary whether a +/- sign is in front of the odds. Odds with a positive sign in front indicate the profit won on a $100 bet. +700 indicates that a bet of $100 will return $800, being the original $100 staked and $700 of profit.
If there is a negative sign in front of the number, this indicates the amount you would need to bet to win $100 of profit. Odds of -200 mean you would bet $200 to win $300 ($100 of profit plus the original stake). You will not often find these odds in golf pre-tournament other than in match-ups between two golfers.
Being based in New Zealand, I tend to use decimal odds when I provide my golf betting tips. I also denote my bets in units or points (pts). This means you can invest the amount that you feel comfortable spending.
There are a few main markets that make up the majority of golf bets.
Outright Winner: Does what is says on the tin. You are betting the golfer to win the tournament.
Top Finish: Betting on a golfer to finish within specified number of places from the top of the leaderboard. Most bookmakers will release Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 markets for each tournament. Many will even offer Top 30 or Top 40 markets, which can be a good option for betting outsiders.
Be aware that most bookmakers will apply dead-heat rules to such bets. This means if you place a Top 10 bet and your golfer ties for 10th exactly with 4 other golfers, your odds will be divided by 4.
Match-Up Bets: These bets typically pit two golfers against each other. They can be placed across the entirety of the tournament or occasionally for a single 18 hole round.
Prop Bets: Of course, there are also a large variety of prop (short for proposition) bets to investigate. For example, will there be a hole-in-one at the tournament? It is best to avoid these, especially when you first start in golf betting. They can be fun, but also are more unlikely to be predictable nor profitable.
Many bookmakers, especially outside of the USA, will offer each-way (E/W) bets for golf. This bet actually consists of two bets: the golfer to win the tournament and the golfer to place. The place terms are always displayed. The most common place terms currently are 5 places at 1/4 odds and 8 places at 1/5 odds. Note that dead-heat rules will also apply if your player ties for the exact number of places on offer.
These provide great value and present you with better place odds compared to a typical top finish market. Think of it as a reward from the bookmaker for also making a win bet alongside your place bet.
For example, you pick Rory McIlroy to win a tournament. You take him at $20.00 E/W with place terms of 5 places at 1/4 odds. If McIlroy wins the tournament, you would collect both the win bet and the place bet. However, say McIlroy finishes in 3rd place. You would then win the place portion of your bet. In this instance, $20.00 divided by 4 would return place odds of $5.00. However, pre-tournament his Top 5 finish odds may only have been $3.50. You gave yourself the opportunity to cash an outright win ticket, but also were rewarded with better place odds as a result.
Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage. It indicates what the bookmakers believe to be the chance of a result occurring. You can calculate implied probability using the following formula:
(1/ decimal odds) * 100 = implied probability
There are also various websites that will perform this calculation for you.
For example, the odds for Jon Rahm are $20.00 (19/1 or +1900) to win a particular golf tournament. The bookmakers are saying they believe Rahm has a 5% chance to win the tournament.
Every time you place a bet, your selection has an “expected value” or “EV”. In short, this indicates what you can expect the bet to win (or lose) if made over a long time frame at the same odds. A positive EV bet is a winning play. We expect it to return a positive amount over the long-run if made time and again. Conversely, a negative EV bet is one we expect to lose over time.
The biggest golf betting mistake I see is trying to pick the winner every week. This may seem slightly counter-intuitive at first. I mean, we want to pick winning golfers, right? The fact is, you can make a bad bet and win money. You can also make a good bet and lose money. Let me explain.
Pre-tournament, you decide that given your analysis Justin Thomas will play well this week. You place a outright win bet on him to win at odds of $40.00. This bet has an implied probability of 2.5% or one-in-forty times.
Say that the correct chance for Justin Thomas to win was 2% or one-in-fifty times. Whether Thomas wins or loses the tournament is actually irrelevant. This is a negative EV bet. The more times that you place the bet, then the more times you will lose than win over time. Even if Thomas does win the tournament, you still made a negative EV bet.
Let’s look at the opposite. Say that you know Thomas has been working with a new swing coach, he recently shot a low round at a similar style of course, plays well in the wind and you can see in the forecast strong winds are forecast. He is the wrong price with bookmakers and his fair odds are actually $33.00 or an implied probability of 3%.
Again, irrespective of the result, this is a bet that we want to make. It has a positive EV and, over the long-term, will win you money. Even if Thomas doesn’t win the tournament, you made a positive EV bet.
You will rarely find that the top few golfers in the market present positive EV opportunities. The bookmakers know the majority of casual armchair golf punters will tend towards the top of the board. They will bet stars, names that they know, and golfers they want to cheer for. Bookmakers need to mitigate this risk and also boost their profits. Especially when odds are very short, you are unlikely to be getting any value.
My role is helping you to identify positive EV spots. I provide golf betting tips where the actual chance of a golfer winning is higher than the implied probability currently on offer. This is the only way to win in golf betting in the long-term.
People structure their golf bets in many different ways. You often find people betting a certain amount on every bet they make. Others will bet an amount in order to win a specific value. For example, they bet an amount required to win $1,000 at the odds on offer.
The optimal way to structure your bets should be based upon the difference between the implied probability and the actual probability of the event occurring. If the margin is wider between the two figures, then you should bet more. Your confidence interval will be higher. Essentially, based upon your analysis you are more confident of an edge to true odds existing and you want to push that advantage. If the edge is smaller, then you should bet less.
You will find with my golf betting tips through WinDaily Sports that I provide suggested staking. I will indicate what type of bet to make and how many units or points (pts) I recommend on each option. This makes it easy for you to construct your golf betting card ahead of the tournament.
Let’s look at the below example of how my suggested staking is used:
Tom Kim
1pt E/W $40.00 (8 places, 1/5 odds)
3pts Top 20 $3.50
In the above, my recommended bet is to stake 1 point E/W (1 unit to Win and 1 unit to Place). The place terms are indicated in brackets. The bookmaker has offered 8 places, with 1/5th the win odds if Tom Kim finishes in the Top 8. I also recommend 3 units on a Top 20 bet at $3.50.
Whatever you choose to make the value of your unit is up to you. 1 unit could be $5, $10, or $100. It really depends on what you are comfortable with and the size of your bank roll.
I would recommend always betting less than a maximum of 5% of your total allocated betting bank roll on any given tournament. You will encounter losing streaks and we do not advocate a “get rich quick” scheme. You will run into cash flow issues if you are betting too much of your bank roll on a given week. Instead, aim for a sustained systematic approach which leads to you growing your bankroll.
Most importantly, never bet more than you can lose. WinDaily Sports is a great community and we want you to be having fun. So, if it no longer is, then stop.
I get it. Win bets are sexy. There is nothing better than placing your bets to then see one of your golfers come through to lift the trophy. It is even better when they are paying triple-figure odds!
The reality is that the wins you collect on your place and match-up bets are what will keep your wheels greased. Picking winning golfers is not easy. There are 140+ golfers who play in most tournaments and only one will ever win. And, even when you are regularly placing positive EV bets, it will sometimes be many weeks between win bets. Remember, you are looking at the long-term and following your process.
What you should be aiming for is to regularly be cashing place and match-up bets. One, this will mean that you are usually breaking even or making a small profit every week. When you do achieve a win bet, you will then reap the rewards and a larger profit. This keeps your cash flow positive and ensures you don’t lose your entire bankroll chasing Hail Mary win only bets.
Secondly, if you are regularly seeing your golfers place in the top end of the leaderboard that is a positive sign. There is still an element of luck in golf. The bounce of a ball, a few putts that just lip out, or a random gust of wind can be the difference between 1st and 20th. The more often your golfers are ending up in a position to potentially complete a victory, the better.
When looking at golf betting analysis, you need to continuously monitor the weather. It is baffling that in a sport so affected by the elements that so few golf bettors will even bother to check the weather prior to tournament start. Check the weather when initially analyzing the tournament. Check the weather in the last 24 hours before first tee-times. Basically, check the weather continuously before and throughout the tournament.
As mentioned in my DFS 101 article, you can get an edge depending when golfers tee off. Tee-times typically of two distinct groupings between a Thursday morning/Friday afternoon start time and vice-versa. This can create a weather edge for players teeing off at a particular time. If Friday afternoon is forecast for heavy winds and tricky scoring conditions, you may want to lean towards players starting their first two rounds Thursday afternoon/Friday morning. You will often hear of a AM/PM stack or PM/AM stack providing a potential advantage in a given week.
Not every weather forecast is the same. The weather is inherently difficult to predict as is, but many websites rely on free and basic models which are less accurate.
At WinDaily, we use a combination of the best premium weather forecast models on the market to provide the most accurate weather predictions that we can. I’m here to make this easy for you and provide the best information available. Make sure you are in the WinDaily Discord, particularly in the 24 hours prior to tournament start, to give yourself an edge!
You also want to check the condition of the course. Many courses on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour have been on the circuit for many decades. This brings with it a wealth of data that you can delve into (but you still want to pay attention to any changes ahead of the tournament, such as longer rough or reshaping of certain holes).
However, there are always a few new courses to interpret each season. Three of the four golf majors – the PGA Championship, US Open, and The Open Championship (or British Open) – are often played on courses that have not been played on professionally for several years if ever. I always recommend for new courses to find video flyovers, photos, and watch interviews. You want to try to get a feel for the course and what type of player it may suit.
Grass type also makes a difference. This is particularly true on the greens, where different types of golf can see varying performance by golfers. The most common greens are Bermuda, Bentgrass, Poa Annua, and Paspalum.
Bermuda is found commonly in Florida and typically in warmer climates. It can be somewhat easier to read. Bentgrass is typically found in areas which have cooler summers and in coastal areas. Poa Annua has a reputation for getting bumpy in the afternoon and can be tricky to putt on. Paspalum is a very sturdy grass that is highly resistant to salt. It is generally only found in coastal and tropical courses. Being a hardy grass, it can grab the ball more than other surfaces and prove sticky.
You want to pay particular attention to prevailing wind, wind gusts, any rain forecast, and ground condition. A dry, firm course in windy conditions will play a lot more difficult to a soft course in calm conditions. This can influence both tee-time stacks, but also the type of golfer you want to look for.
There remains great opportunities for live in-play golf betting. As mentioned, there are a huge number of factors that bookmakers need to take into account. Not only are there a huge number of players to account for, but bookmakers also need to know where they each are on the course. They are often too slow to react and adjust their odds. Often bookmakers identify the number of holes a golfer has left in the round and not account for whether those holes are potential birdie holes, for example.
Weather can play a factor for in-play bet opportunities. With tournaments typically running over four rounds, the weather can change quickly from a Thursday to Sunday. For example, we spotted a potential weather edge develop recently at the Italian Open. Saturday afternoon was suddenly forecast for very high winds. This meant golfers further back on the leaderboard and teeing off earlier Saturday morning were going to enjoy easier scoring conditions. We tipped Robert MacIntyre live in-play, who managed to take advantage of the conditions and went on to win the tournament at odds of 125/1.
If you’re new to Strokes Gained and have not read my Golf DFS 101 article, head over for a basic run-down on Strokes Gained here.
Per that article, ball-striking metrics tend to be “stickier”. If a golfer has made recent improvement in their approach play, this is more likely to be retained to subsequent tournaments. This is one of the key trends I always look for in players that appear to be a good course fit. I also like to identify whether the increase in SG: APP has been linked with recent improvement in driving accuracy. These two metrics combined give an indication that the golfer’s swing is in good shape and they are striking the ball well.
If a player has made recent improvement in SG: APP, driving accuracy, and if they have previous positive course form, that is a situation I want to pay close attention to. Do be aware to check how recent those performances were, as you will want to give less weighting to tournaments which were a month or longer ago.
SG: PUTT, followed by SG: ATG, is the most volatile metric. So much of short-game comes down to touch, feel, and confidence. Putts can be off by a mere centimeter and miss, or a golfer can get hot and suddenly make every putt they see.
Yes, there are better putters than others. But, as a rule, a recent hot putting performance does not necessarily mean they will putt well the next tournament. I prefer to see a longer stretch of improved putting before I start giving credence to the fact that the golfer has actually made some permanent gains with the flat-stick.
One of the biggest mistakes I see bettors making is not comparing recent improvements to a golfer’s longer term baseline. If Viktor Hovland is hitting the ball well on approach, that is almost a given as he is one of the best iron player’s in the game. We expect him to hit the ball well on approach. However, if Hovland starts hitting more fairways with his driver or making improvements in his SG: ATG, then I am beginning to get interested.
Likewise, if a golfer has had a great week putting, we would expect the golfer to experience regression towards their mean. As putting is more volatile, we typically also experience this regression more quickly. Basically, we would expect the golfer’s form to return towards their average baseline.
There are a huge number of factors that goes into successful golf analysis. The majority can’t, or simply won’t, put in the time required to be able to identify positive EV golf betting opportunities. It always pays to remember that it is the bookmakers job to analyze golf tournaments better than you to set fair pricing. At WinDaily, we are here to help and give you that winning edge!
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We are back for our third major of the year at the US Open, following perhaps one of the most interesting weeks in recent golfing history. In the current climate, it is hard to avoid the controversy coming out of the Saudi Arabian sports-washing that is the LIV Golf tour and it will be an interesting sideshow to observe how the notoriously rowdy Boston crowds will greet the defectors that tee it up this week.
The RBC Canadian Open played out just as well as it could have for the PGA Tour. A star-studded final grouping of Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, and eventual winner Rory McIlroy provided can’t miss action that easily surpassed LIV Golf’s viewership numbers. McIlroy later revealing his motivation in his victory interview being the win took him past Greg Norman’s 20 PGA Tour wins was the icing on the cake and one most golf fans would have enjoyed. Perhaps Norman’s new 54-hole tournament provides a nod to his ability to blow a 3-round lead, but the PGA Tour will be absolutely thrilled with how the narrative ended.
As ecstatic as the PGA Tour would have been with the results, it was a week of “what could have been” for our tips. Top pick Matthew Fitzpatrick bolted out of the gates with 4 birdies in 5 holes to sit one shot off the lead after the first round, only to do nothing from there. The pivotal moment came in the second round when Fitzpatrick held a three-shot lead and had every chance to run away with it only to close with a run of double bogey, birdie, and 3 bogeys in his last 5 holes on Friday effectively taking him out of contention mentally.
Brendon Todd and Aaron Rai finished just one shot off a Top 10 placing for us at odds of $8.00 and $8.50, John Huh finished two shots off a Top 20 at odds of $7.50, and Ryan Armour entered the third round in 19th but could not keep up with an extremely low scoring final day not playing to his strengths.
All in all, it is hard to begrudge a leader board where the favourites rose to the top at a time when they perhaps most needed to send a strong message to the rival Saudi golf league: that the best golfers in the world will continue to play on the PGA Tour. And as much as the LIV Golf commentators loved to wax lyrical about how every putt could potentially earn XYZ dollars for the golfer, we saw a Canadian Open tournament that meant something with passion, history, and legacy all at stake. The hordes of fans rushing the 18th green indicate that this still means a great deal.
As we look to Brookline, Massachusetts for our penultimate major of the year, another opportunity arises for someone to build such a legacy. Who should you bet for the 122nd US Open? This is your weekly golf deep dive and betting tips.
The Country Club provides host for the 122nd US Open and promises to be a challenging venue that should make for fantastic viewing. Playing as a 7,264-yard par-70 course, on paper it may not appear to be one of the longest renditions of this tournament. This is partly deceptive. I do understand the narrative many other tipsters have followed, highlighting how driving accuracy will be imperative to avoid the penal rough lining these narrowing fairways.
Discounting driving distance totally would be a mistake. The course provides one very short par 3 at 131 yards, alongside several shorter par 4s complimented by longer par4s and a monster par 5 as a result. Of those holes, they measure as follows:
I much prefer looking at a total driving aspect entering this week, with so many holes providing the potential for a long driver to gain advantages over the field if they can keep it in the short grass. The rough that greets is a real mix of perennial rye, Kentucky Bluegrass, Poa Annua, and thick fescue if you stray far enough.
Holding the greens will remain a challenge, and even more so from the rough, with the greens on offer providing miniscule targets. At an average of just 4,388 sq ft these are the second smallest ever in major championship history (behind only Pebble Beach as the exception) and, in fact, are some of the smallest on PGA Tour (Harbour Town the only other I am aware of). The course superintendent has also promised greens to run at a speedy 12 on the stimpmeter and should be firm further adding to the problem golfers will face.
Miss the green and you’ll be greeted again with either thick rough, one of the many deep bunkers that surround in droves, or “chocolate drops” which are essentially piles of leftovers rocks during construction that have grown over with grass. Even when you find the flat surface, highly undulated and quick greens promise to make even short putts worthy of attention. To the eye, comparisons to links courses and The Open Championship are certainly understandable.
All up a highly penal test of a golfer’s entire game is on the cards, which will provide a high level of volatility and a win at single figures the most likely outcome.
In addition to the natural variance which comes with this course setup, gusty winds promise to add further volatility to this week.
Of the conditions, Thursday morning provides the best opportunities with winds of just 2-8mph and gusts at a moderate 8-16mph. Thursday PM sees the highest winds of the first two days, prevailing at 12-15mph and gust of 25-30mph could prove significant when targeting these tiny greens.
Friday conditions should be consistent all day, with winds of 9-12mph and gusts of 18-28mph throughout the day. There is a small chance of rain Friday afternoon which may provide some very welcome softening of conditions.
Winds should continue to play a factor across the weekend, with little reprieve forecast and winds between 8-11mph with gusts at 20-25mph throughout.
https://www.windy.com/42.314/-71.150/wind?41.747,-71.147,8,m:ePGaecA
There is an edge here for the Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. I will be playing this near exclusively, with the only divergence from this strategy done so for specific reasons.
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This week’s PGA DFS picks article should help you find some winning combinations and focus your player pool for the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s.
Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Despite the lack of a top 10 finish at the Open Championship (his best finish was a T11 at Royal Troon in 2016), Rahm enters the week as the betting favorite and highest priced PGA DFS golfer in the field. There’s no real weakness to his game; he currently leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring – and ranks second in SG: T2G. His ball-striking has been on point this season, he loves links courses and he’s in play for all formats this week.
Rory McIlroy (DK $10,900) – I refuse to give up on Rory and think he’s a good GPP play this week in the wake of the missed cut at the Scottish Open – which he jumped into a little late because his wife and child are still stateside. He may end up being the lowest-owned golfer in the $10K+ range and that’s what we’re looking for since his upside is still in the trophy-hoisting territory. “Rors” is both familiar with this giant-killer venue (T25 here in 2011) and the elements that could stymie a large portion of the PGA DFS field.
Brooks Koepka ($10,700) – Because of his impressive history in majors (four wins in the past five years) and the Open Championship (three top 10s since 2015), Koepka isn’t cheap, but he’s a fine GPP play. The polarizing figure was a 13-year-old spectator in 2003 when Ben Curtis won at Royal St. George’s, and while he said Tuesday morning (in an interview that had the NYT writing about it) that while this isn’t his favorite British Open venue in the venerable rotation, there’s no reason to leave him off your builds with his uncanny ability to compete in the world’s biggest tournaments.
Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – The former Open champion (2017 at Royal Birkdale) is impressive on links courses and has the requisite elements to his game is solid form heading into this week’s test. We have plenty of options in the $7,000-7,500 range this week if we’re rostering Rahm-Spieth to start, and if we’re fading Rahm there’s a great route to balanced builds that start with Spieth as the highest spend ($8K+ remining per golfer). I’ll be hoping to land around 25-40% ownership in GPPs.
Also consider: Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas (GPP)
Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,300) – There’s not much more to say about the former Open champion than what Sia said in his U.S. Open Initial picks piece and what I covered in the picks column leading into Torrey Pines, when he finished solo second after being edged out by Rahm. He’s not playing in the Olympics, so this tournament has to be an important one for him as he continues playing solid golf in the late summer/early autumn of his fantastic career. He’s a guy I love in basically all the majors for PGA DFS, but I know he’ll be popular this week.
Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – Hovland – the No. 14 golfer in the world – became the first Norwegian winner in the history of the European tour when he prevailed at the BMW International Open in Germany a couple weeks ago, and his steady play and positive attitude should help him navigate the inexorable bounces and bumps of Royal St. George’s. The only drawback is his last of experience, as this will be his Open Championship debut, and it’s one of those things that’s got Sia concerned, as he explains in the breakdown.
Patrick Reed ($8,800) – While I’m a little skeptical that Reed can endure the elements and win the Open Championship, he’s certainly in play at this low price because of his ability to finish in the top 15. The form isn’t great, and his accuracy could be a problem here, but the ironically nicknamed “Captain America” loves to play the villain and he’s a shrewd large-field GPP play with an elite short game.
Paul Casey (DK $8,600) – Casey disappointed with a T54 at this venue in 2011 (a third-round 78 the main culprit), and his Open Championship finishes have left a bit to be desired through the years. But he’s a much more consistent golfer these days and has six top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments, so I like his chances for a top 10 this week, especially at this relatively fair price.
Tony Finau (DK $8,400) – I’ve said “never again” after being burned by Terrible Tony many times, but the talent level is off the charts and the price is a reasonable one despite two straight MCs at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Finau has not missed a cut at the Open Championship in four tries, and three of those attempts have yielded Top 20 finishes (solo third in 2019, T9 in 2018, T18 in 2016). He probably circled this on the schedule the minute he trudged off the 18th green at Torrey Pines, and I will be surprised (and angry) if he sabotages my GPP lineups again this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $7,900) – As you may have noticed if you’re a regular reader of PGA DFS Picks, Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite golfers to roster in single-entry and all types of GPPs, and I’ll continue that approach this week at Royal St. George’s – a venue where he should thrive – despite the disappointment of coming off a playoff loss to Min Woo Lee at the Scottish Open. His best finish in the Open Championship was the most recent iteration in 2019 (T20), and I believe he’s ready to break through with a top 10 (or better) this time around – when distance is not as important (it’s even shorter than it was in 2011) and he can plot his way around the golf course. In fact, Fitzpatrick came here last year (after having been told that he wasn’t going to enjoy it because of the blind shots and uneven lies) shot 67 and loved the course.
Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – The defending champion is under $8K this week, and that alone puts him in play in all formats, even if he’s exceedingly popular. Lowry performs well in weather and wind, and he was the only player who didn’t collapse in the gale-force gusts that plagued the final round at Royal Portrush Golf Club in 2019. There’s plenty of PGA DFS upside in this price range, and both Fitzpatrick and Lowry make for fine core plays in all kinds of builds.
Sergio Garcia (DK $7,600) – His last Top 5 at a British Open came in 2016, but he finished T9 here in 2011. He’s far from a safe play and I wouldn’t touch him in cash games despite the low price, but he’s a great GPP option given his upside and the dynamic quality of game and ball-striking prowess. He’s had a hard time closing things out this season, with some good rounds giving way to PGA DFS tumbles over the weekend, but he’s in play at this venue in large-field GPPs.
Also consider: Collin Morikawa (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer
Francesco Molinari (DK $7,300) – The talented Italian won the Open Championship in 2018 and finished T11 in 2019 – impressive finishes that show he can handle links style courses with the best of them. He missed the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011, but a decade of additional experience in major championships should help him this week.
Harris English (DK $7,300) – English has piled up the top 10 finishes this season (seven), and he’s one of just five golfers to notch two wins on tour this season. In the focus stats/metrics, he checks some crucial boxes for Royal St. George’s, ranking eighth in SG:T2G and seventh in Bogey Avoidance over his past three tournaments. He’s also missed the weekend just once in five Open appearances and has made cuts in 13 consecutive majors – something that makes him a solid play for single-entry and cash games as well as large-field GPPs.
Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – Fowler is teeing it up in his 11th Open Championship, with only one MC at this event (and three finishes of T6 or better – including a T2 from 2014 and a T5 at Royal St. George’s in 2011. That level of experience is a big help, and he’s finally rounding into form after a rough stretch in late 2020/early 2021. The fan favorite has now secured a weekend pass in three of his last four starts (T8, T11, MC and T32) and the impressive T8 was at the year’s second major – the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.
Robert MacIntyre (DK $7,300) – MacIntyre is right there with the rest of the high-upside players at this price point, even if PGA Tour golf fans aren’t that familiar with his record. Bobby Mac impressed at the Royal Portrush in 2019 at his Open Championship (and major tournament) debut, concluding in difficult conditions with a final round 68 and eventual T6 finish. He’s now ranked No. 53 in the world, making the cut at five straight majors – a T12 at the Masters this April his best major finish since the 2019 Open. MacIntyre shot under par in all four rounds last week and posted a T18 at the Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open – a links with at least a passing resemblance to Royal St. George’s. Excluding a COVID-related withdrawal at the Irish Open recently, The Scotsman has made a remarkable 25 of his last 26 cuts worldwide and may even be viable in cash games this week.
Branden Grace (DK $7,200) – Grace is usually hit-or-miss in major championships, but he arrives sporting some good form due to some sparkling iron play over his last dozen or so rounds. He has a history of going low at the Open, dating back to his 62 in Round three Saturday at Royal Birkdale in 2017 – when he finished T6 with Koepka, Marc Leishman, Alex Noren and Matthew Southgate at -4. The 33-year-old South African also finished inside the top 20 at the Open Championship in 2015, and arrives at this week’s edition on the heels of two consecutive top seven finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,200) – Since missing the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011 (which surely sticks in his craw), Poulter has a spotty history at the Open Championship with five MCs and three top 15s – a testament to his dynamic play and viability as a GPP play. His 2021 record is actually a lot more steady: Since the PGA Championship, he’s 6-for-6 with two top five finishes including T4 at the Scottish open this past week.
Alex Noren (DK $7,200) – Noren has a distinguished record at the Open Championship, finishing T11 with Rahm, JT, Molinari and Tom Lewis in 2019 and earning top 10s in 2017 and 2012. He’s also finished among the top 15 (including a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic) in two of the past three starts, sporting excellent T2G numbers in that stretch. I wouldn’t pencil him into all my single-entry lineups, but I’m willing to take as stab in the lower-fee SE and in all types of large-field GPPs.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,000) – Kuchar is my choice for sneaky veteran bargain play – especially on a course that’s not all about mashing and/or the traditional “target” golf that’s played on a lot of the modern stateside venues. He’s fared well at the open Championship in the past and finished solo second at Royal Birkdale in 2017. In fact, he’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts in this tournament (and eight straight), the only outlier being the 2011 edition at – you guessed it – Royal St. George’s. The revenge narrative is strong this week and Kuchar should be low-owned with Top 10 upside.
Lucas Herbert (DK $6,800) – The woefully mispriced Herbert won at the Irish Open two weeks ago and notched a T4 in Scotland last week, so he’s in fine form heading into the Open. The plucky Australian also finished inside the top 20 at a couple of relatively prestigious PGA Tour events – the Memorial and the Travelers. He’s now won a couple times in his past 23 starts worldwide and should offer plenty of value as you construct your builds this week.
Lucas Glover (DK $6,600) – Hey – it’s another cheap Lucas! Glover is coming off a huge win at the John Deere Classic, snapping a winning drought that lasted over 10 years, and he should be excited about playing a course where he posted his best-ever finish at the Open Championship – a T12 in 2011. Winning two weeks in a row and collecting just his second major championship is a tall order – no doubt – but he’s a risk-reward play that won’t cost you very much to roster.
More value golfers to consider: Phil Mickelson (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (GPP), Thomas Detry, Matt Wallace, Russell Henley (GPP), Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners (GPP), Danny Willett, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Stewart Cink, Richard Bland, Adam Long (GPP)
Justin Harding (DK $6,500) – More of a single day (first-round?) showdown longshot, Justin Harding heads into the 2021 The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s Golf Club with insanely long (+35000) odds to win, but he’s in play due to the fact that he made the cut and finished 41st in his last appearance at this event in 2019, and he’s super cheap. I’m targeting him for 1/20 GPP entries.
Chris Kirk (DK $6,400) – Kirk made three of his last five cuts, but he’s 17-for-23 this season – decent for a golfer under $6,500. While he missed the cut during his last British Open appearance in 2016, he’s a much better golfer now and should be up to the challenge personally and professionally. Like Harding, I’ll find a place for him in 1/20 large-field GPP entries.
Johannes Veerman (DK $6,100) – Veerman posted a T3 at the Irish Open two weeks ago and is coming off a T8 at the Scottish Open, so the form is solid. He’s seemingly a fans of links-style courses and while he’s a virtual unknown who could boom or bust this week, the price is dirt cheap and he’s one of the better low-cost options in the $6K range – which we’ll need to peruse if we’re going full-on stars and scrubs. He might be my favorite play under $6,600, so I’m willing to click him into 5-10% of my large-field GPPs (and one or two of my 20-max entries).
Additional GPP punts: Sebastian Munoz, Carlos Ortiz, Marcus Armitage, Jason Scrivener, Sam Burns, Chan Kim
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the Travelers Championship. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.
Bryson DeChambeau $11,100 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 22%)
Rory McIlroy $11,200 (M6, 13%)
I have no problem with Justin Thomas as he’s my #1 ranked player this week. For me its a player pool construction exclusion only and JT will be the player I fear the most come Thursday.
Patrick Cantlay $9,800 (M8, 15%) – Cantlay is making his debut since the break at the Travelers Championship. I’m assuming he would be priced in the 10K range if he had played prior. He has great tournament history with back to back T15. His absence is a bit worrisome but being an elite player, I hope he can shake the rust off quickly.
Collin Morikawa $9,100 (MT9, 19%) – Morikawa flamed out in the last round at the RBC Heritage but that doesn’t seem to bother anyone. His ownership is at his cap and perhaps should be pushed to cash game consideration. I guy I ALWAYS roster, this week won’t be any different.
Xander Schauffele $9,600 (M14, 13%) – If you followed me in the discord last week or on twitter, Schauffele cost me a $555 ticket. No hard feelings though and he’s back on the team. Top 10 odds to win and is at sub 15% ownership, is more then ideal.
Patrick Reed $8,700 (M4, 12%) – Reed burned a lot of people last week by missing the cut, including myself. Tie that with the fact a lot of chalk is in the upper 8K range, it’s no surprise of his low ownership. Reed is top ten in recent form, tournament history and hole performance. I feel there is a big bounce back for Reed and possibly a win.
Gary Woodland $8,300 (M9T, 15%) – Woodland hasn’t done anything spectacular at the Travelers Championship but has made three straight cuts. Woodland almost made my cash game consideration. Combine the course history and recent form with his top 10 ball striking skills and its easy to see why he’s 15% owned.
Billy Horschel $7,300 (M28, 4%) – Horschel is coming in with top 25 stats in recent form (despite the MC last week), comp courses and ball striking. Horschel has the 21st best odds in Vegas despite being priced as the 35th golfer on DraftKings for the Travelers Championship.
Kevin Kisner $7,700 (M30, 4%) – Kisner came in around 18% owned last week and missed the cut on the number. This week people seem to be still resenting him with the sub 5% ownership. With a great short game, if Kisner can do some damage with his ball striking, watch out.
Scottie Scheffler $7,600 (M38, 14%) – Scheffler withdrew last week but before hand made three straight cuts with two top 30 finishes. Vegas loves him and that alone is why im breaking my Ownership/Pricing rules (Can be seen in the PGA Research Tab in Discord). As one of the top DK scorers in the field, I’ll take my chances.
Jason Day $7,500 (M37, 6%) – Getting a player like Day at such low ownership, always tickles my fancy. His current form is well…garbage. His tournament history though is with two back to back T15. Probably a better bet then DK play but you won’t need much to be overweight on the field.
Vaughn Taylor $6,500 (M15, 3%) – Four made cuts with a top 5 in 2019. Taylor started off strong last week, but couldn’t finish the same way over the weekend. A grinder with upside I would be surprised if Taylor doesn’t finish in the top 20 this week at the Travelers Championship.
Ryan Moore $6,900 (M21, 5%) – Moore does not have the greatest recent form like Day. Again though, when it comes to the tournament Moore has performed well. With 2 cuts out of three visits, those two weekends ended with top top 20s. At the price he helps getting the more expensive players in your lineup and comes with upside.
I wanted to show plays you could build a lineup around for 50/50, double ups, etc in partnership with the plays above. These are plays that I like but are too high owned for my preference in big GPPs. While these plays may get mixed in, they are designated for cash games more. These ownership numbers are reflective of bigger tournaments and will most certainly be higher in Cash / SE games.
Last week they went 6/6 making the cut. Lets see if we can do it again for the Travelers Championship.
Abraham Ancer $9.000 (M20, 21%)
Paul Casey $8,900 (M3, 18%)
Sungjae Im $8,600 (M22, 21%)
Sergio Garcia $8,500 (M32, 14%)
Tony Finau $8,200 (M35, 16%)
Marc Leishman $8,000 (M26, 16%)
Victor Hovland $7,800 (M16, 22%)
Thank you for reading the Insight Sheet for the Travelers Championship. You can find my other work here on my Author Page. Follow Win Daily Sports (@WinDailySports) and myself (@DFSPatrickScott) on Twitter for up to date news. You can also come hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before lock!
The Insight Sheet gets you ready before lock at the RBC Heritage. Inside is my personal player selection. Make sure to be on Discord tonight to get final questions asked and for help with lineup building. As always, the sheet uses DraftKings pricing but the model is set up for overall play. Players can be used on all sites.
These players are good. Like most weeks, there’s really no need to explain why the top players are here. This week is no different, here is who I am playing.
Rory McIlroy $11,300 (Model Rank #1, Projected Ownership 16%)
Jon Rahm $10,500 (M3, 14%)
Xander Schauffele $10,200 (M4, 12%)
I didn’t like DeChambeau like most of the top guys last week as I thought he was a poor fit, I was wrong. Despite that though, I’m doubling down and avoiding him this week as well at the RBC Heritage. Thomas is an elite player with an amazing iron game, which this course demands. He ranks outside of the other big names, though barley, and he’s off my list simply due to lineup construction. Morikawa is my boy and I’ll have a few shares in my 150 lineup tournament, but that missed 3ft putt might weigh on him and force him to press.
Sungjae Im $9,700 (M5, 22%) – I was on Im last week and he payed off well finishing 15th in points. The price hike is not scaring anyone away though as he is one of the highest owned golfers this week. He’s certainly the highest projected ownership on my team though. Im comes in top 15 in pretty much everything: Ball Striking, Scoring, Performance, Around the Green and Odds. All of this can be found here.
Hideki Matsuyama $9,500 (M6, 12%) – Matsuyama didn’t play last week and if you look through my pool, he’s the only one. With that said, his game sets up perfectly for Harbour Town GL. The only reason he made it was the last time we saw him, Matsuyama was on FIRE at THE PLAYERS (another Pete Dye course). His sub 15% ownership certainly helps as well.
Patrick Reed $8,800 (M10, 16%) – The public’s persona of Reed must be finally wearing off as his ownership keeps climbing. Reed can light up a DK scoreboard, which was on display last week. He finished in the top 10 and second to only Berger, despite 20 less finishing points. Reed might be entering core territory for this week.
Abraham Ancer $8,000 (M22, 10%) – I’ve always been hesitant to play Ancer in the past but starting with his play at the President’s Cup, he’s been making waves. He followed it up with three top 25 finishes in the American Express, WGC Mexico and last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge. Ancer is the perfect pivot from Hatton (who I do like) with roughly half the ownership and he actually played last week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,900 (M14, 9%) – Fitzpatrick was just heating up before the break with a 9th place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Before that he didn’t have the best finishes, though he made the cut and was trending in the right direction. If he can capture his 2019 finish where he went 4/5 top 20, at sub 10% ownership, Fitzpatrick could be a sneaky good play.
Shane Lowry $7,800 (M23, 6%) – Lowry burned us last week but prior had two top 30 in 2020. His approach game could be better but he has a good short game to compensate. His game once again should translate well here at the RBC Heritage but I said that last week. Won’t need many shares to be overweight.
Billy Horschel $7,700 (M20, 10%) – Horschel is just a solid golfer all around. His 2020 didn’t start the best (MC and 68th finish) but since went 9, 9, 42, 36 and 38th last week. He has the 16th best odds despite being the 26th priced player on DraftKings. Horschel has been averaging 3.6 strokes T2G his last five tournaments and is a better putter on Bermuda.
Ian Poulter $7,600 (M24, 8%) – Poulter was almost a cash play, thinking his ownership would be higher (more on that later). At sub 10%, I don’t know what more you want from a golfer in this price range. Third in strokes gained total for the tournament with three top 15 finishes the last three years. Eight made cuts dating back to last year. His best putting surface…Bermuda! He’s not the biggest DK scorer but at $7,600 you won’t need much to cover.
Adam Hadwin $7,300 (M13, 7%) – Hadwin has made the cut at Harbour Town GL the last three times out with two top 30. Hadwin doesn’t do anything special but is a grinder. I won’t have a lot of Hadwin but down here in this price range, you could do worse.
Harris English $7,300 (M17, 6%) – Talk about recency bias, Harris was 18% owned last week, sub 10% now?? Yes please! Before the MC last week he was coming in with three top 20, including a 9th place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Not only was he on a tear before the break but he also has a 25th place finish at last year’s RBC Heritage. Core piece, I think so.
Bud Cauley $7,200 (M19, 8%) – With five straight made cuts coming into Harbour Town GL, Cauley looks like a very safe bet. Perhaps he doesn’t have the upside to win, but he can land a top 10 if his putter gets hot. Cauley has the 14th best strokes gained total for the tournament and has solid recent form with a 29th showing last week.
**New this week, I wanted to show plays you could build a lineup around for 50/50, double ups, etc in partnership with the plays above. These are plays that I like but are too high owned for my preference in big GPPs. While these plays may get mixed in, they are designated for cash games more.**
Justin Rose $9,200 (M43, 15%)
Webb Simpson $9,000 (M18, 25%)
Gary Woodland $8,400 (M11, 19%)
Matt Kuchar $8,300 (M27, 15%)
Tony Finau $8,200 (M26, 15%)
Joel Dahmen $7,500 (M15, 11%)
The time is near, we have the PGA to thank.
Let’s comb thru this data of the Charles Schwab Challenge Ownership Breakdown, and put the money in the bank! Let’s all go try and take down that Million Dollars from DraftKings!
Last year the Colonial played as the 7th hardest course relative to par. It ranked near the bottom in strength of field. Not anymore.
Rory McILroy and Web Simpson will battle it out for top ownership %, presently at 24% and rising.
They are followed by John Rahm, Sunjae IM, Patrick Reed and Colin Morikawa (sorry Patrick) at 18% ownership and on an uptick.
Justin Thomas and Xander Shauffele are holding steady at 15%.
English, Kuchar, DJ, Na, Fowler, and Spieth are between 10 and 14%.
DeChambeau, Hovland, An, Fitzpatrick (my compliments Jason), Moore and Lowry are all sub 10 percent, ranging from 8% down to 5%.
The reason I mention these golfers above is that they all have a high percentage to make the cut, and a 20% + chance to make top 20 in the tourney, with the exception of Jordan Spieth, who is still a respectable 15% to make top 20. The following players deserve a mention as well.
M Leishman – 11% owned, 27% to T20
K Kisner – 11% owned 19% to T20
C.Conners – 11% owned 18% to T20
J. Day – 7% owned 25% to T20
R Moore, S Lowry, C Reavie, V Taylor, R Knox,C. Bezuidenhout, B Cauley, T Hoge all are under 5% ownership with 15% odds to make T 20.
At first I was high on Rahm, after he said he’s just “praying not to shank the first 7 balls I hit…and I just need to work the rust off.” I’m going to pass and look hard at Rory and Bryson, with JT following closely behind Bryson. Also I wasn’t planning on rostering Koepka, after he said “my game is really coming around, after the Players it’s now a million times better.” Okay, that’s a few lineups for me, thank you. Sunjae Im has been playing 5 hours every day, so he is ready. Kevin Na: “I spent all my time at home, loved it, didn’t play any golf, I may be a bit rusty.” Sergio just had a baby! Congrats, No roster for you!
If you are playing in a high player GPP I wouldn’t go with more than 1 of the high priced players, and to be contrarian, I don’t feel it’s necessary to roster any. Web Simpson is popping all over my models, at 25% ownership, I may put him in 1 lineup in multiples and pivot to a lower owned choice, grudgingly.
In the mid tier it’s Day, Kuchar and Sheffler popping, with Day being one of the best contrarian pivots due to ownership,value,and a decent short game.
| Golfers of Note | Odds to make cut (%) | Odds to T20(%) |
| Xander S | 74.2 | 37.6 |
| P Reed | 70.9 | 34.3 |
| Sunjae IM | 69.7 | 33.8 |
| C Morikawa | 69.6 | 32.9 |
| DJ | 69.1 | 32.0 |
| S Scheffler | 68.9 | 30.9 |
| R Fowler | 66.9 | 28.6 |
| M Fitzpatrick | 66.4 | 28.1 |
| M Kuchar | 65.9 | 27.9 |
| B Koepka | 63.9 | 25.8 |
| J Day | 62.7 | 24.2 |
| T Finau | 62.6 | 22.9 |
| D Berger | 59.8 | 19.7 |
| R Sabbatini | 57.5 | 18.4 |
| K Kisner | 56.3 | 17.5 |
| D Lee | 53.2 | 15.6 |
| M Homa | 50.7 | 14.2 |
Max was the last to be close, although he didn’t quite hit the 15%, he has the short game to get a pass.
Adam Hadwin, B An, Abraham Ancer, Billy Horschel and Harris English are the top value plays with Jim Furyk, Ryan Moore, Bryan Harmon and Conners secondary value plays.
Deep deep sleepers: Munoz, Cauley, Duncan, Redmon, Cabrera-Bello, Stricker, Todd, – roster if you’re feeling frosty!
If you don’t see your golfers name listed anywhere above, it’s because of ownership, value, DraftKings pricing or data, and it doesn’t mean you can’t roster him. I haven’t listed any golfers with a less than 50% chance to make the cut, and at least a 15% chance to make the top 20. I feel the best golfers to get you the money are there, and I’ll be glad to answer any queries in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat once the writers reports are in. Make sure to keep checking Win Daily Sports for all the up to date news on all your Golf bets and DFS plays.
As always, I hope to see you there, in the money.
In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Players Championship and helping you find some winning teams!
Rory McIlroy (DK $11,700, FD $12,200) – I picked Rory to win last week and he’s the betting favorite again (+650) despite his difficulties on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer invitational. He’s the defending champ here, and while there’s never been a golfer to win this event back-to-back, he’s in a class by himself. We can’t do a full fade but his putting issues (outside 10 feet) make me feel comfortable aligning with the field’s overall ownership levels in GPPs or coming slightly under that percentage.
Jon Rahm (DK $11,000, FD $12,000) – I will try to be overweight on Rahm this week because his form has been almost as impressive as McIlroy’s and he’s coming in fresh after a two-week layoff that kept him out of the carnage that has been the first two legs of the Florida Swing. Rahm checks all the boxes and trails only Rory and JT in my mixed model this week, so he’ll make over half of my GPP builds.
Justin Thomas (DK $10,800, FD $11,900) – Like Rahm, JT hasn’t played since the WGC-Mexico, and that might not be a bad thing. He’s likely been working on his game, which suits this course well because of his great SG: Approach numbers, short game, and penchant for making birdies and eagles. Thomas ranks second on my mixed model, should see lower ownership than Rory, and has solid course history at the Players (5-for-5, two Top 15s).
Adam Scott (DK $9,600, FD $11,500) – Scott’s price is somewhat elevated on FanDuel, but it makes sense given his history at Sawgrass, which includes a Top 12 or better in each of his last four starts. A course horse if there ever was one, Scott manages his way around this course and should be in contention this weekend. It’ll be tough for him to close against such a stacked field, but he’s in my mix for GPPs.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,100, FD $11,300) – Bryson seemed more at ease on Sunday down the stretch at the API and should build on his strong finish with confidence at a course that he’s played better each of the two seasons he’s participated (T37 in his 2018 debut and T20 last year). I think he’s a great bet in all formats for his price and consistency and has a shot at winning the whole thing despite odds (+2700) that come in longer than Scott, Patrick Cantlay and Webb Simpson.
Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,000, FD $11,000) – The Englishman plays well at Sawgrass and will avoid high ownership because of his MC at the API (and we can throw out a lot of the elite golfers’ finishes because of how brutal conditions were last week). He should be rested and ready to play well and string together a slew of birdies, capitalizing on solid all-around numbers.
Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (GPP only), Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson
Rickie Fowler (DK $8,900, FD $10,800) – This could be the week that Rickie avoids the big number and finds his way into the Top 5 again. He won here in 2015 and has a spotty course history since, but I like him in GPPs. A risky play at $8,900, he does have winning upside if his putter continues to shine, and his ownership should land way under 10 percent in GPPs.
Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,800, FD $10,900) – Nobody really dominates at the Players, but Matsuyama is 4-for-5 with all four of those made cuts landing him among the Top 25. He’s top five in several of our SG focus stats and makes for a fine under-the-radar play at an insanely affordable cost this week. I’ll try to double the field ownership on this ball-striker extraordinaire.
Patrick Reed (DK $8,500, FD $10,500) – Some of the DK pricing this week is quite peculiar, and Reed at just $8,500 is an anomaly I’ll be taking advantage of regardless of field ownership (which isn’t currently projected to crack 15 percent). His status as a tour villain makes him a great candidate in GPPs, and his poor history here doesn’t discourage me as much as it would if he was priced way above $9K.
Tony Finau (DK $8,100, FD $10,200) – Finau sports solid SG: APP and general ball-striking numbers, and he’s improved each year he’s played TPC Sawgrass. He’s a sneaky off-the-radar GPP play who ranks sixth (right after an uber-popular Cantlay) in my mixed model. Finau makes a great wild-card component on GPP builds with a couple of studs and two other mid-tier cut-maker bargains.
Matt Kuchar (DK $7,800, FD $9,700) – I wish I could say that Kuchar fares well in my models, but he’s actually in the middle of the pack around the “cutline” at 64th (sandwiched between Russell Knox and Talor Gooch). Still, he’s a veteran golfer who’s more than the sum of his parts and there’s some decent course history here including a third-place finish in 2016 and a win back in 2012. The price is affordable and I think he’s a fine risk-reward GPP play based on his form (six Top 15s in his last nine tournaments).
Marc Leishman (DK $7,600, FD $9,700) – Leishman has historically struggled at the Players (two MC in his last three tries here and one Top 25 in the past five installments), hence his bargain price this week despite winning the Farmers in January and finishing second last week at the API to Tyrell Hatton. He falls just outside the Top 20 in my model and I’ll trust his ball-striking and SG: APP numbers to give him Top 15 upside come Sunday.
Scottie Scheffler (DK $7,500, FD $8,700) – Scheffler fared well in his debut at Bay Hill and will be making his first appearance at the Players this week. It’s not usually a course we like for virgin competitors, but Scheffler’s talent seems to keep him afloat and in contention, even in tougher fields. Don’t sleep on this young man and his ability to post low scores.
Also consider: Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP only) Collin Morikawa, Shane Lowry, Byeong Hun An
Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7,400 FD $9,000) – Hatton kept it together on Sunday and took home the red cardigan at the API — and the entire team at WinDaily Sports was high on him. As much as we’d like to cross him off our list given his poor history here and the traditional axiom of avoiding last week’s winner, he’s popping in my models as the No. 13 golfer this week. Last week must have been a confidence boost and I’ll be making room for him on GPPs lineups.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,300, FD $9,200) – Fitzpatrick keeps getting closer and closer to breaking through with a win – he just needs to give himself more realistic chances at birdie. The short game is remarkably consistent and there’s plenty of things to like about his game tee-to-green and his last two finishes (T46, T41) here at TPC Sawgrass. He’s got Top 25 upside at an affordable price this week, so I can’t fade him.
Daniel Berger (DK $7,200, FD $9,400) – Berger has three straight disappointing finishes here (all made cuts, though) and a Top 10 in 2016. He’s among the Top 20 in my model this week and his form is excellent (T4, T5, T9 in his last three events with his last MC coming at the Houston Open in October). I love his upside and bargain price for all formats.
Ian Poulter (DK $7,300, FD $9,500) – Another veteran golfer who manages his way around this challenging TPC layout, Poulter takes advantage of scoring opportunities when he can. He’s ground his way to Top 40 finishes in difficult conditions the past two weeks, and he’s experienced enough here to avoid big numbers, make the cut (5-for-5 and finish on the leaderboard (T2 in 2017).
Abraham Ancer (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – Ancer finished T12 here in his 2019 debut and is a fine all-around fit based on his strengths from tee to green. His worst numbers are around and on the green, so he’s a risky play best reserved for GPPs. I have a couple of better plays in mind, but I’ll have some shares.
Joel Dahmen (DK $6,600, FD $8,100) – Speaking of GPP-only golfers whose short game is their main weakness, Dahmen is almost a direct analog for Ancer in his course history (also finished T12 in his debut last year) and focus stats (he’s 52nd in my model while Ancer is 53rd). He’s actually a safer play than Ancer based on his current form (T5, T5, and T14 in his last three starts) and a better bargain on both sites.
Cameron Tringale (DK $6,600, FD $7,300) – Tringale hasn’t played the Players since 2017, but he’s 3-for-3 here and has made the cut in 11 of his last 12 events. He fares incredibly well (no. 23) in my mixed model and is a solid value play to round out your builds in almost any format.
Brian Harman (DK $6,400, FD $7,200) – There’s not a lot of overwhelming upside under $6,500 this week, but Harman is on my shortlist of punts for his course history (Top 10s in two of his last five at Sawgrass) and cut-making ability. He also ranks 27th in my model, so his all-around ball striking and short game abilities are well suited for this track.
Bud Cauley (DK $6,200, FD $7,600) – Cauley’s weaknesses lie in his poor SG: OTT numbers and his pedestrian BoB% numbers, but at these prices and considering his recent stretch of made cuts, I’ll hang on the positive numbers that stick out: He’s 34thin the field for SG: APP and 13th in SG: ARG.
Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,100, FD $7,500) – I’m taking a big risk with Munoz after his brutal MC last week (he made a 7 on the Par 5 6th hole, his 15th of the day, to put him at +5 – while the cut landed at +3). He’s also making his debut this week, but my models love him (18th overall in the field), so I’ll be using him in two or three out of 20 GPP entries.
More value golfers for GPPs: Matt Wallace, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, Jimmy Walker, Jhonattan Vegas, Jim Furyk, Talor Gooch, Adam Long, Kevin Tway
