122nd US Open: Course Analysis and Weather Deep-Dive

185

We are back for our third major of the year at the US Open, following perhaps one of the most interesting weeks in recent golfing history. In the current climate, it is hard to avoid the controversy coming out of the Saudi Arabian sports-washing that is the LIV Golf tour and it will be an interesting sideshow to observe how the notoriously rowdy Boston crowds will greet the defectors that tee it up this week.

The RBC Canadian Open played out just as well as it could have for the PGA Tour. A star-studded final grouping of Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, and eventual winner Rory McIlroy provided can’t miss action that easily surpassed LIV Golf’s viewership numbers. McIlroy later revealing his motivation in his victory interview being the win took him past Greg Norman’s 20 PGA Tour wins was the icing on the cake and one most golf fans would have enjoyed. Perhaps Norman’s new 54-hole tournament provides a nod to his ability to blow a 3-round lead, but the PGA Tour will be absolutely thrilled with how the narrative ended.

As ecstatic as the PGA Tour would have been with the results, it was a week of “what could have been” for our tips. Top pick Matthew Fitzpatrick bolted out of the gates with 4 birdies in 5 holes to sit one shot off the lead after the first round, only to do nothing from there. The pivotal moment came in the second round when Fitzpatrick held a three-shot lead and had every chance to run away with it only to close with a run of double bogey, birdie, and 3 bogeys in his last 5 holes on Friday effectively taking him out of contention mentally.

Brendon Todd and Aaron Rai finished just one shot off a Top 10 placing for us at odds of $8.00 and $8.50, John Huh finished two shots off a Top 20 at odds of $7.50, and Ryan Armour entered the third round in 19th but could not keep up with an extremely low scoring final day not playing to his strengths.

All in all, it is hard to begrudge a leader board where the favourites rose to the top at a time when they perhaps most needed to send a strong message to the rival Saudi golf league: that the best golfers in the world will continue to play on the PGA Tour. And as much as the LIV Golf commentators loved to wax lyrical about how every putt could potentially earn XYZ dollars for the golfer, we saw a Canadian Open tournament that meant something with passion, history, and legacy all at stake. The hordes of fans rushing the 18th green indicate that this still means a great deal.

As we look to Brookline, Massachusetts for our penultimate major of the year, another opportunity arises for someone to build such a legacy. Who should you bet for the 122nd US Open? This is your weekly golf deep dive and betting tips.

Course Analysis

The Country Club provides host for the 122nd US Open and promises to be a challenging venue that should make for fantastic viewing. Playing as a 7,264-yard par-70 course, on paper it may not appear to be one of the longest renditions of this tournament. This is partly deceptive. I do understand the narrative many other tipsters have followed, highlighting how driving accuracy will be imperative to avoid the penal rough lining these narrowing fairways.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9e_CnoWUYg

Discounting driving distance totally would be a mistake. The course provides one very short par 3 at 131 yards, alongside several shorter par 4s complimented by longer par4s and a monster par 5 as a result. Of those holes, they measure as follows:

• 1st: Polo Field | Par 4 | 488 yards
• 3rd: Pond | Par 4 | 499 yards
• 4th: Newton | Par 4 | 493 yards
• 5th: Bakers | Par 4 | 310 yards
• 7th: Corner | Par 4 | 375 yards
• 8th: Quarry | Par 5 | 557 yards
• 10th: Himalayas | Par 4 | 499 yards
• 14th: Primrose 8 | Par 5 | 619 yards
• 15th: Liverpool | Par 4 | 510 yards
• 17th: Elbow | Par 4 | 373 yards

I much prefer looking at a total driving aspect entering this week, with so many holes providing the potential for a long driver to gain advantages over the field if they can keep it in the short grass. The rough that greets is a real mix of perennial rye, Kentucky Bluegrass, Poa Annua, and thick fescue if you stray far enough.

Holding the greens will remain a challenge, and even more so from the rough, with the greens on offer providing miniscule targets. At an average of just 4,388 sq ft these are the second smallest ever in major championship history (behind only Pebble Beach as the exception) and, in fact, are some of the smallest on PGA Tour (Harbour Town the only other I am aware of). The course superintendent has also promised greens to run at a speedy 12 on the stimpmeter and should be firm further adding to the problem golfers will face.

Miss the green and you’ll be greeted again with either thick rough, one of the many deep bunkers that surround in droves, or “chocolate drops” which are essentially piles of leftovers rocks during construction that have grown over with grass. Even when you find the flat surface, highly undulated and quick greens promise to make even short putts worthy of attention. To the eye, comparisons to links courses and The Open Championship are certainly understandable.

All up a highly penal test of a golfer’s entire game is on the cards, which will provide a high level of volatility and a win at single figures the most likely outcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhL63C86ylw

Weather

In addition to the natural variance which comes with this course setup, gusty winds promise to add further volatility to this week.

Of the conditions, Thursday morning provides the best opportunities with winds of just 2-8mph and gusts at a moderate 8-16mph. Thursday PM sees the highest winds of the first two days, prevailing at 12-15mph and gust of 25-30mph could prove significant when targeting these tiny greens.

Friday conditions should be consistent all day, with winds of 9-12mph and gusts of 18-28mph throughout the day. There is a small chance of rain Friday afternoon which may provide some very welcome softening of conditions.

Winds should continue to play a factor across the weekend, with little reprieve forecast and winds between 8-11mph with gusts at 20-25mph throughout.

https://www.windy.com/42.314/-71.150/wind?41.747,-71.147,8,m:ePGaecA

There is an edge here for the Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. I will be playing this near exclusively, with the only divergence from this strategy done so for specific reasons.

To view my golf betting tips and player analysis, head over to here: https://windailysports.com/122nd-us-open-golf-betting-tips-long-shots-and-player-profiles/?ref=31

Enter code “gofree” and receive 7 days access for FREE, including access to all paid articles and our exclusive Discord group chat to ask myself and other experts all your golf betting questions!