It is hard to believe this 9/28 MLB DFS slate is the second to last regular season day of MLB. My Dodgers have things firmly in hand, and my hopes of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series are well alive. When each season winds down it leaves me with a feeling of both sadness, and relief. This is a tradition I have watched unfold now for over forty years, and each one leaves me with tears in my eyes, even as a grown man.
With everything pretty much said and done, all the players today are basically playing for personal glory. This makes pitching extremely tough to nail down. The biggest advice I can give to you today is play light and save your bankroll for NFL DFS. Today truly is a crap shoot. So, with Mindset “Leave No Doubt” playing in the background, I bring you my last MLB DFS regular season pitching article.
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On the Defense
I have no clue what is going on tonight with the Tigers atWhite Sox. The pitching option is not available on FD, but has Reynaldo Lopez slatedto start on DK, even though everything I have seen has him slated to pitch theday game. Keep on eye on this one.
JustinVerlander vs. Los Angeles Angels
$11,400 FD / $12,800 DK
My confidence in Verlander’s competitiveness drives this 9/28 MLB DFS play. The Angels with Mike Trout were not the scariest team on most nights, and without him is anything but. Over the last seven days the other guys from Los Angeles are batting a .221 with a pathetic wRC+ of 68. Even Justin’s sub-par numbers versus the Angels this season are better than most pitchers’ good ones. With question marks all over the board tonight he has the highest upside.
RobbieRay vs. San Diego Padres
$9,300 FD / $10,600 DK
With the Padres striking out 24.8 percent of the time versusLHPs Robbie Ray is a fully loaded 9/28 MLB DFS option. Ray may have allowed fourearned runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing facing San Diego, but he alsohad 10 strikeouts. Even with a negative ballpark shift in Arizona, for thediscount from Verlander, I would have no fear of using him in both cash gamesand GPPs.
BrettAnderson vs. Seattle Mariners
$6,700 FD / $7,200 DK
The Seattle Mariners are striking out 24.7 percent of the time versus LHPs this season. Anderson also over his last nine starts has only allowed more than three earned runs once. Seattle over the last seven days is striking out 28.7 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 32 while batting .177. I cannot think of a better time to attack them than on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate.
ReynaldoLopez vs. Detroit Tigers
$6,700 DK
As earlier mentioned, I am not 100 percent sure Lopez is starting the night game, but DK does have him listed. The not so mighty Tigers are striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs while coming in 30th in MLB in both wOBA and wRC+. His last two starts facing Detroit did not go as well as hoped, but he has had major success versus this lineup in the past. I sure hope he pitches on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate because I would love to pair him with Anderson freeing up a ton of salary to spend on hitting tonight.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP |
| Justin Verlander | Astros | 20 | 6 | 217 | 11.94 | 1.74 | 1.41 | 36.60% | 15.50% | 2.53 | 3.24 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 12 | 8 | 168 | 12.03 | 4.33 | 1.5 | 37.80% | 19.20% | 4.28 | 3.81 |
| Brett Anderson | Athletics | 12 | 9 | 171 | 4.58 | 2.53 | 1.05 | 54.40% | 13.60% | 4 | 4.83 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | White Sox | 9 | 15 | 176 | 8.18 | 3.27 | 1.74 | 34.90% | 13.90% | 5.57 | 5.39 |
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On theAttack
We have a Coors Field game on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate, and a lot ownership is going to head towards facing a lefty in Colorado. We do however have a few other sweet stacking options at lower prices.
JamesMarvel vs. Cincinnati Reds
Talk about a gift on this 9/28 MLB DFS slate. James will do anything but Marvel regardless of who he is facing. In his first three starts he has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 innings. The beauty is they let him keep pitching. With nothing to lose at this point I see that trend continuing tonight.
Reds vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Eugenio Suarez | 496 | 7.50% | 28.00% | 0.27 | 1 | 0.372 | 127 |
| Aristides Aquino | 161 | 6.20% | 24.80% | 0.25 | 6 | 0.358 | 118 |
| Joey Votto | 425 | 12.50% | 18.60% | 0.67 | 3 | 0.35 | 113 |
| Derek Dietrich | 279 | 10.00% | 23.30% | 0.43 | 1 | 0.348 | 111 |
| Josh VanMeter | 226 | 11.50% | 21.20% | 0.54 | 7 | 0.327 | 98 |
| Tucker Barnhart | 306 | 12.10% | 22.20% | 0.54 | 0 | 0.319 | 93 |
| Curt Casali | 133 | 9.00% | 27.80% | 0.32 | 0 | 0.314 | 89 |
| Freddy Galvis | 406 | 6.20% | 26.40% | 0.23 | 2 | 0.31 | 91 |
| Jose Iglesias | 395 | 3.00% | 14.20% | 0.21 | 6 | 0.303 | 82 |
| Nick Senzel | 304 | 7.20% | 28.30% | 0.26 | 8 | 0.294 | 77 |
| Phillip Ervin | 159 | 6.30% | 27.70% | 0.23 | 3 | 0.279 | 66 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 32 | 9.40% | 28.10% | 0.33 | 4 | 0.272 | 62 |
| Kyle Farmer | 122 | 3.30% | 33.60% | 0.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 54 |
| Jose Peraza | 279 | 2.90% | 16.10% | 0.18 | 4 | 0.254 | 50 |
Garrett Richardsvs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Talk about a terrible comeback. Richards has allowed sevenearned runs over 5 1/3 innings since his return. Four of them earned runs werein his last start facing this same Diamondbacks team, but the last time was inSan Diego. Tonight, he is heading to Arizona and a negative park shift. The D’Backsare in full play on this 9/28 MLB DFS Slate.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHPs
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | BB/K | SB | wOBA | wRC+ |
| Ketel Marte | 454 | 10.10% | 14.10% | 0.72 | 8 | 0.404 | 150 |
| Abraham Almonte | 33 | 15.20% | 24.20% | 0.63 | 0 | 0.399 | 147 |
| Kevin Cron | 57 | 5.30% | 33.30% | 0.16 | 0 | 0.341 | 109 |
| Christian Walker | 423 | 9.00% | 27.00% | 0.33 | 7 | 0.341 | 109 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 491 | 8.60% | 18.90% | 0.45 | 4 | 0.335 | 105 |
| Alex Avila | 162 | 19.80% | 34.60% | 0.57 | 1 | 0.331 | 102 |
| Domingo Leyba | 26 | 15.40% | 30.80% | 0.5 | 0 | 0.326 | 98 |
| Wilmer Flores | 172 | 6.40% | 10.50% | 0.61 | 0 | 0.325 | 98 |
| Tim Locastro | 150 | 4.70% | 14.70% | 0.32 | 16 | 0.318 | 94 |
| Adam Jones | 357 | 5.90% | 19.00% | 0.31 | 2 | 0.311 | 89 |
| Nick Ahmed | 460 | 8.00% | 19.30% | 0.42 | 7 | 0.297 | 80 |
| Carson Kelly | 261 | 12.30% | 21.80% | 0.56 | 0 | 0.296 | 79 |
| Jarrod Dyson | 395 | 10.60% | 18.50% | 0.58 | 29 | 0.274 | 65 |
| Jake Lamb | 194 | 12.90% | 24.20% | 0.53 | 1 | 0.271 | 63 |
| Josh Rojas | 115 | 9.60% | 25.20% | 0.38 | 2 | 0.262 | 57 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 156 | 5.10% | 13.50% | 0.38 | 1 | 0.261 | 56 |
| Caleb Joseph | 32 | 3.10% | 21.90% | 0.14 | 0 | 0.208 | 22 |
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The reality is Mike Foltynewicz has been incredible lately, and I am also sure that a ton of DFS writers are putting him out there today. My rule as a DFS writer is simple, if I am not going to use a player in my lineup, I will not include them in my article. But he is in a great spot, I just smell regression. Folty has only had eight strikeouts once this season, back on May 31st facing the Tigers. Under all the way.
Steven Matz has achieved these number a few times this season facing the Braves. With everything well in hand for Atlanta, I see some bench playing time today. Over all the way.
The Padres are among the league leaders in strikeouts versus LHPs, this is not a good thing for them. Robbie Ray has a 12.0 K/9, which is a very good thing for him. Over all the way.
Richards will be lucky enough to survive three innings tonight before being sent to the showers. Under.
A word if I may. Thank you to my beautiful wife Jennifer for taking my hand in marriage six years ago today. You put up with endless sports on the TV, loud and obnoxious hardcore music, and my grumpiness on a daily basis. I love you and hope we have many more years together. Happy Anniversary.
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A flashback at some of the best performances from the Monday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/17 MLB DFS review and look ahead.
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As Jason had him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a value pitcher, Robbie Ray had a solid start against the Miami Marlins last night. He supplied six innings of one run ball while giving up one hit with four walks and seven punchouts.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Ray hasn’t been a huge factor in terms of innings, as he hasn’t pitched more than 6.0 innings in his last 11 starts. The Diamondbacks are all but out on a postseason berth, but with a couple of outings left, Ray could be a good value option. Expect him to throw a quality amount of innings but give up a good amount of baserunners as well.
Facing the Miami Marlins at the plate, Jake Lamb had a pretty good day at the plate. Lamb went 1-for-3 with a double and four RBI on the day. In an injury-plagued season, Lamb is getting some more power in his swing as the season starts to near the finish.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Jake Lamb has not had the 2019 season that he envisioned after a short 2018 as well. It’s not a huge sample size with just 164 at-bats, but he has a .693 OPS which isn’t terrible either. Expect him to get his swing right and hope he remains healthy for the 2020 campaign.
Here is a screenshot from the Premium Projection Model of Kyle Schwarber, who was also a value outfielder on the cheatsheet. Going up against the division-rival Cincinnati Reds, Schwarber had a good day at the plate. He ended the day going 1-for-4 with a three-run home run and was a big factor in the victory for the Cubs,
Outlook for the rest of the season: Schwarber has been not a good for average, but has a .840 OPS on the year. This also was the second game in a row where he slugged a home run and five HRs in his last 15 games. Now is the perfect time for Schwarber to heat up as Anthony Rizzo is out of the lineup while the Cubs fight to possibly win the N.L. Central crown. Expect Schwarber to keep slugging down the final stretch.
Aldalberto Mondesi had a good day at the plate on the road against the Oakland Athletics and Jason predicted this, as he was his value shortstop. He went 3-for-5 with him being a home run shy of the cycle while adding two RBI. This is great considering he is going against a playoff-contending pitching staff.
Outlook for the rest of the season: Mondesi has been one of the few bright spots for Kansas City this season, as he is batting .270 with 39 stolen bases. He isn’t going to provide much pop off the bat, but his speed makes him avoid slumping for long stretches. Expect Mondesi to get a good amount of hits and produce for the final couple of weeks of the season.
Clayton Kershaw! Lucas Giolito!
Crickets. Lots of crickets.
The 9/6 DFS Pitching Picks — outside of the two aces — is awful thin, with a handful of maybes, perhaps and goodness no. Four teams are so disjointed that, as of late Thursday night, TBD was listed in their Friday slate. Ouch.
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We all have bad days, and Kershaw sure as heck had one in his last start. After 10 straight starts with at least 30 FanDuel points, Kershaw had just 18 points in a sluggish five-inning stint against the Padres. Not to worry, though: the Giants come to Chavez Ravine, and that’s good news for Kershaw and your wallet.
Kershaw has a 1.29 ERA against the Giants this season, holding them to a .180 batting average. His strikeout rate is less than a batter per inning against them, but he’s at 9.56 K/9 overall this season and is on track for a seventh straight season of less than two walks per nine frames. He’s almost money in the bank considering he’s had just three starts this season with 26 or fewer FanDuel points. It’s also nifty that Kershaw is catching a Giants team hitting a collective .243/.283/.407 over the past week, averaging less than four runs per game. I’m not one to tell grown people what to do with their money and lineups, but…
Giolito enters tonight bidding for a 10th straight game of at least seven strikeouts. He’s gone exactly six innings in five of those starts, so he’s fanning well over a batter per inning. Post All-Star Break, Giolito has whiffed 90 batters over 63.2 innings, but his 11.55 K/9 overall is probably going to net him no better than third place in the AL Cy Young Award race. I’d be even more enthused if Giolito was pitching on the road, but he’s still making batters miss at a steady clip.
Adding 1.8 mph to your heater can do wonders, as Giolito can attest, having gone from 92.4 mph in 2018 to 94.2 this season. What’s also enhanced his breakout is the huge increase of faith in his change-up, going from 15.9% usage last year to 25.9% currently.
Like Kershaw, Giolito will benefit from facing an Angels team in an extended funk, hitting a composite .219/.312/.373 over the past two weeks. The numbers are worse when the Angels face power pitchers like Giolito, managing a paltry .225/.323/.385 slash. All systems are go if you like Giolito and/or want to go against the grain from those using Kershaw.
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The best of a thin crop of arms on the slate of 9/6 DFS Pitching Picks, Lamet is striking out 31.7% of opposing batters and comes off a 10-K effort against the Giants. Lamet struggled after returning from Tommy John surgery, but he’s allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts along with allowing just three homers in his last seven outings after giving up five in his first three starts. Colorado’s lineup has seen Lamet’s handiwork firsthand, as he struck out seven Rockies over five innings in an August 11 start.
Lamet has put up at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts, including a season-best 67 at the Mariners on August 6. Because of his high strikeout rate, Padres infielders are busy just 34.1% of the time when Lamet is on the hill. The strikeouts also bolster Lamet’s modest 35.2% hard contact rate and is somewhat nullified by his 72.7% strand rate. Lamet looks even better when looking at the Rockies’ road numbers, especially the 70-point dip in batting average (.303 at home, .233 away) and a .203 free fall in OPS (.885 home, .603 road). Be it ever so humble…
I’ll give Corbin the slight edge over mound opponent Dallas Keuchel in what will be the series (sorry Yankees-Red Sox) of the weekend. Corbin has five straight starts of at least 40 points on FanDuel, but the only reason he’s not a cash game pitcher is well…the Braves are bit more productive than the Giants or Angels. Corbin is striking out 10.36 batters per nine innings and his 35% hard contact rate — along with a 33.6% fly ball rate — is a big reason why he’s got a 0.98 HR/9 rate.
Corbin is on a Giolito-like strikeout run, fanning at least seven hitters in eight of his last 10 starts despite going more than six innings just twice in that span. The next Atlanta hitter to take him deep this season will be the first, as he’s kept the ball in the yard against them while striking out 13 over 11 innings versus the NL East leaders. The 28.4% K rate is strong, but it’s too much of a risk to go with Corbin in a cash format.
He’s been up and down since a solid July and is risky on the road at Great American Ball Park. Ray is averaging 11.78 K/9 but the 4.14 BB/9 could be the match into the gas can with this Reds lineup. Ray is sporting a 1.48 HR/9 rate this season, which kinda falls as average with the way the ball is flying out. A 42.4% hard contact rate falls into the dangerous category in a hitter-friendly park and a host of lumber capable of chasing Ray to an early exit.
Ray put up a modest 27 FanDuel points in his last start, but he’s been as high as 49 points and as low as nine in his past six outings. Somewhere, the truth lies in between, and I’d consider finding where that middle exists if you’re interested in playing more offense rather than paying for Kershaw or Giolito.
If you believe in the healing powers of the sinker, then Eflin might be worth your attention among the 9/6 DFS Pitching Picks. He’s started using it more over the past two outings, and wouldn’t ya know? Bah Gawd, it works. Eflin has allowed just two runs over 13 innings but with only five strikeouts to show for his efforts, Eflin’s appeal will be limited. However, he’s put up starts of 28 and 31 FanDuel points, numbers that would climb if he missed a few more bats. He’s still not walking many batters (2.47 BB/9) and his 14/5% HR/FB rate is pretty acceptable.
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I always try to be transparent with you guys and this is by far one of the worst slates I’ve had to write about all season. I honestly don’t trust any of these guys and I’ll be treading the waters lightly on this slate because of that. The 8/2 DFS pitching options are downright ugly and we’re going to take a few shots in the dark to try to find some nice value plays. With so many bad pitchers toeing the rubber, it’s going to be critical to pay up for hitters and connect on a solid cheap pitcher.
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DK ($11,700) FD ($10.500)
Having Lynn as my cash game pitcher of the day should tell you everything you need to know about this slate but he’s having an incredible season. While a 3.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are not necessarily special numbers, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league since the opening month. In fact, Lynn is generating a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last 15 starts while striking out 124 batters across 101.1 innings of action. That’s led to him scoring at least 30 FanDuel points in 14 of those starts, which is exactly what you want out of a cash game pitcher.
What really makes him intriguing is this matchup with the Tigers. The Motor City Kitties currently rank bottom-two in K rate, wOBA, xwOBA, SLG, OBP. OPS, BA and runs scored. That doesn’t even take into consideration that Detroit just traded their best hitter and Texas enters this game as a –240 favorite.
DK ($10,400) FD ($10,000)
It’s weird to call Ray a cash game pitcher with his volatility but his K upside actually gives him a pretty solid floor. We’re talking about a guy who has at least 49 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, striking out 44 batters in those 30.1 innings. Any guy who has a 32 percent K rate and 3.70 xFIP while recording a 13.2 K/9 rate at home is worth a shot and it gives him one of the best floors on this ugly slate. Washington isn’t the best matchup but they do rank 15th in SLG and 13th in runs scored, so it could be worse.
DK ($7,900) FD ($7,000)
This is where it starts getting scary. Perez is certainly risky but he’s got some serious upside in this circumstance. The major reason why is because of this matchup, with Kansas City ranking 25th in wOBA, 24th in xwOBA, 26th in xSLG, 25th in runs scored and 26th in OPS.
That’s obviously terrible and it puts any pitcher in play against them. It’s not like Perez has been terrible this season either, scoring at least 24 FanDuel points in 13 of his 21 starts. That would be an ideal score in this price range, as he’s also one of the best bets on the board to grab a win. In fact, the Twins enter this matchup as a –250 favorite.
DK ($7,700) FD ($7,800)
Matz is coming off of his best start of the season, pitching a complete-game shutout against these Pirates. That obviously puts him in play here and he’s been much better than his season-long numbers would indicate. Two horrendous starts against the Phillies have absolutely bombarded his numbers, as he allowed 15 runs in his two outings against them. If you take out those two starts, Matz actually has a 3.31 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this season.
That pairs beautifully with the fact that Matz is pitching to a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his last four appearances. The complete-game shutout against the Pirates is really no surprise when you look at Pittsburgh’s numbers either, with the Pirates ranked 26th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and last in OBP against left-handed pitching this season.
DK ($8,300) FD ($6,300)
Gausman has some unsightly numbers this season but I’m going to go ahead and use pitchers against the Reds for the rest of the year. Not only do they rank 27th in xwOBA, 29th in xSLG and 23rd in runs scored, they just traded Scooter Gennett and Yasiel Puig. Those are two of their best hitters and this is easily one of the worst lineups in baseball without them.
That’s huge for an inconsistent pitcher like Gausman, as he’s actually got eight Ks in back-to-back games. This is a guy who’s scored at least 43 FanDuel points in four of his 15 starts this season and he’ll be the best value on the board if he duplicates that in this superb matchup. This dude is due for some serious positive regression too, as his 4.15 FIP and 24 percent K rate is a better indicator than his disastrous 5.97 ERA. Not to mention, Gausman enters this game as a –140 favorite.
DK ($7,600) FD ($5,800)
It’s always risky to use a guy in his debut but Dodgers pitchers are always worth starting at home. This is young stud performed well at the minors too, generating a 2.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at Triple-A this season. That’s backed up by his 3.47 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the minors dating back to the start of last season, as his 24.5 percent K rate is an impressive mark too.
He actually put up those impressive numbers in a hitter-friendly environment and he’s fully stretched out for this game. The matchup against San Diego is what we really like though, with the Padres sitting 27th in K rate, 23rd in xSLG, 25th in xwOBA and 24th in OBP. Vegas agrees, making May a –190 favorite with the Padres projected for fewer than four runs.
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I was blown away that we are getting strikeouts in this prop. I would have taken -0.5 Ks with Matz but we will cash this prop if these guys tie in strikeouts. Thats shocking considering that Matz has the much easier matchup and that Williams is pitching to a 7.01 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his last six starts.
This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.
**Low Risk
This Twins lineup is the clear cut top stack on the slate. They are facing Glenn Sparkman, who is by no means a good pitcher. The odds are heavily against him, owning a slate low 12.8% K rate. He is only inducing a 7% swinging strike rate as well. Sparkman is giving up a slate high 84.9% contact rate and 2.04 HR/9 innings. He owns a 5.25 ERA, 5.94 FIP, and 5.44 SIERA. Sparkman is getting absolutely blasted on the road, allowing batters to slash to a .441 wOBA, .674 SLG, and .401 OBP over 33 innings pitched. Glenn Sparkman has allowed 32 earned runs in those 33 innings. The Twins are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 122 WRC+ over the last month.
*I want to emphasize the importance of getting a lot of exposure across the board here. Just about every player in this Twins lineup grades out very well today.
Preferred Stack: Jorge Polanco ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), Max Kepler ($4400 FD|$5200 DK), and Nelson Cruz ($4500 FD|$5500 DK). Also consider Miguel Sano ($3700 FD|$4900 DK), Eddie Rosario ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), and Luis Arraez ($2800 FD|$3900 DK).
**Low Risk
Another expensive stack here, but this Astros squad is in a great spot at home. Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound and owns a 5.21 ERA, 5.61 FIP, and 5.16 SIERA. He has a lowly 16.6% K rate and 8.9% swinging strike rate. Kikuchi is giving up 1.89 HR/9 innings and a 45% ground ball rate. His splits are fairly close, allowing batters to slash to a .354 wOBA, .340 OBP, and .510 SLG. The Astros are back to full health and the bats are hot. They are slashing to a .368 wOBA, .214 ISO, and .136 WRC+ over the last month.
Preferred Stack: Jose Altuve ($4300 FD|$5000 DK), Alex Bregman ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), George Springer ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), and Carlos Correa ($3900 FD|$4600 DK).
**Moderate Risk
The Rockies are back home and we all know what happened the last time they faced the Giants. These teams played a four game series against each other back in mid-July and combined for a whopping 55 runs. Shaun Anderson takes the mound, owning a 5.06 ERA, 4.67 FIP, and 5.16 SIERA. Anderson has not been good to righties on the road this season, allowing them to slash to a .416 wOBA, .587 SLG, and .416 OBP. He has allowed 19 earned runs in 21 innings on the road against them. The Rockies are slashing to a .309 wOBA, .149 ISO, and 74 WRC+ right now. These numbers aren’t good but I think this is a nice spot for a slump buster at home.
Preferred Stack: Trevor Story ($4100 FD|$5100 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4200 FD|$5200 DK), Daniel Murphy ($3400 FD|$5200 DK), David Dahl ($3500 FD|$5200 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3100 FD|$4500 DK).
vs. RHP Joe Ross (WSH): 5.20 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Stack: Ketel Marte ($3900 FD|$4800 DK), Eduardo Escobar ($3700 FD|$4700 DK), David Peralta ($3600 FD|$4000 DK), and Jake Lamb ($2700 FD|$3800 DK). Also consider Jarrod Dyson($3100 FD|$4300 DK).
vs.LHP Dillon Peters (LAA: 6.00 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($3800 FD|$4600 DK), Jordan Luplow ($2500 FD|$4400 DK), Oscar Mercado ($3600 FD|$4700 DK) and Francisco Lindor ($4100 FD|$5200 DK).
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Stack: Danny Santana ($3700 FD|$5100 DK), Roughned Odor ($3000 FD|$4500 DK), Hunter Pence ($3700 FD|$4800 DK), Willie Calhoun ($3500 FD|$4900 DK) and Shin-soo Choo ($3400 FD|$4700 DK).
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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 10-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.
**Moderate Risk
Cincinnati Reds bats get a major boost today. They get a sub par pitching matchup at their home park, one of the more hitting friendly venues in the league. The Reds are hitting well above their season averages over the last two weeks, slashing to a .354 wOBA, .191 ISO, and 117 WRC+ against right handed pitching. Peter Lambert is not the best pitcher, carrying an average 5.93 ERA, 5.61 FIP, and 4.59 SIERA. He is allowing batters to slash to a .382 wOBA, .344 OBP, and .586 SLG. Lambert is allowing 2.45 HR/9 to left handed batters and 1.99 HR/9 to righties. He is allowing a ton of hard contact (47%) to lefties and only has a LOB% of 57 against them. His splits are much better on the road, but Great American is not an ideal place for any pitcher that struggles with the long ball. Stack the Reds with confidence this afternoon.
Preferred Stack: Eugenio Suarez ($3700 FD|$5300 DK), Jesse Winker ($2800 FD|$4100 DK), and Yasiel Puig ($3300 FD|$4500 DK).
**Low Risk
Third time’s a charm? The Twins offense has disappeared the last two games. Ivan Nova put on another excellent performance last night. What in the world is going on? I’m going to remain on the Twins, one of the best hitting teams in the league against another bad pitcher. Covey carries a 6.04 ERA, 5.62 FIP, and 5.75 SIERA over 47 innings pitched. He tends to struggle more to lefties, allowing them to slash to a .415 wOBA, .548 SLG, and .444 OBP over 19.1 innings pitched. Smaller sample size so I’ll take it with a grain of salt, but it is noteworthy to say Covey has been successful (or lucky) at home against righties. They are only slashing to a .179 wOBA, .262 SLG, and .163 OBP over 12 innings pitched. The Twins averages remain high over the last two weeks against right handed pitching. They are slashing to a .384 wOBA, .284 ISO, and 140 WRC+.
Preferred Stack: Jorge Polanco ($3700 FD|$4900 DK), Max Kepler ($4000 FD|$5300 DK), and Nelson Cruz ($4600 FD|$5800 DK). Jason Castro ($2700 FD|$4100 DK) and Luis Arraez ($3000 FD|$4200 DK) for the third day in a row make my top value plays.
**Moderate Risk
Dakota Hudson gets a home matchup against the red hot Astros. They are hitting extremely well to right handed pitching recently, slashing to a .353 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 126 WRC+. Hudson has been exceptional this season, allowing only one game with more than three earned runs. He owns a 3.61 ERA, 5.15 FIP, and 4.95 SIERA. He has true splits, allowing lefties to slash to a .380 wOBA, .515 SLG, and .392 OBP. Something has to give here and I’ve got money on the Astros taking it to Hudson this afternoon.
Preferred Plays: Yordan Alvarez ($4000 FD|$5200 DK), Yuli Gurriel ($3700 FD|$4500 DK), and George Springer ($4400 FD|$5000 DK). I also like Carlos Correa ($3600 FD|$4300 DK) and Jose Altuve ($4100 FD|$4500 DK).
vs. LHP Danny Duffy (KCR): 5.10 Runs
**Moderate Risk
Preferred Plays: Jordan Luplow ($2600 FD|$4000 DK), Francisco Lindor ($4400 FD|$5000 DK), Oscar Mercado ($3700 FD|$4400 DK), and Carlos Santana ($3600 FD|$4100 DK).
vs. RHP Aaron Sanchez (TOR): 5.40 Runs
Preferred Plays: Austin Meadows ($3400 FD|$4700 DK), Nate Lowe ($2800 FD|$4000 DK), Travis D’Arnaud ($3200 FD|$4300 DK), and Tommy Pham ($3800 FD|$4400 DK).
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We have a nice looking MLB DFS slate to attack for this Sunday in late July. So without further ado, lets dive right in. Several aces to chose from on this MLB DFS slate.
Find out which hitters to use tonight on FanDuel with our Premium Gold Data Driven Projections.
Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks at Marlins ($10,200 FD, $10,800 DK): For the rest of the MLB DFS season, people are going to be picking on Miami, Detroit, Seattle and the Chicago White Sox. Well, lets start with the first team on the list, the Marlins. Even though Ray has been the center of trade rumors this month, he has pitched well recently. Or maybe he has pitched well because of that? There were plenty of scouts in attendance for his last start on Monday against Baltimore. In that game, Ray fanned 10 in six innings and allowed three runs. Ray is more of a GPP option when compared to guy below.
Trevor Bauer, Indians at Royals ($11,100 FD, $11,100 DK): Today is the second day in a row where an ace is priced the same on the two major sites. hopefully Bauer will perform as well as Clayton Kershaw did yesterday afternoon. In his last start, Bauer tossed 7 2/3 shutout innings with nine strikeouts in 117 pitches against the Blue Jays. His two-seam fastball worked particularly well over that appearance. He continues to be a workhorse, with 100-plus pitches in 20 of his 23 starts. Bauer is a great cash-game option for the main MLB DFS slate.
Honorable mention: Chris Sale. Since he won’t be on any normal slate but he will pitch well against the Yankees at night.
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Matthew Boyd, Tigers at Mariners ($9,700 FD, $11,400 DK): A little expensive for a middle-tier arm and not on the main-slate. Boyd returns home to his Seattle-area home for what could be his last start as a Tiger with next week’s trade deadline looming. He struck out eight Phillies over six innings Tuesday, with a HR accounting for the only runs against him. A cash-game option for the late afternoon MLB DFS slate.
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I have a pair of cheap pitchers in MLB DFS that I like better than any other middle-priced pitcher. Jason Vargas, Pirates at Mets,
($7,000 FD, $6,700 DK) and Kyle Gibson, Twins at White Sox ($7,200 FD, $7,900 DK) are the pair of arms I like. Both pitchers have a really nice combination of park factors and/or opponents that I like to attack.
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A rather easy and simple pick for me today. Trevor Bauer is in a great spot to pick up nine strikeouts. Kansas City’s lineup is full of young right-handed batters that Bauer should be able to dominate.
Jason Mezrahi and Mark Paquette discuss the Main FanDuel MLB DFS Slate on the 7/29 MLB DFS Podcast. They break down the main slate on FanDuel. Its your typical Sunday Slate schedule so listen closely to who they like. We got a tough decision on finding the right pitching. The question remains, Do you we pay up for one of the aces or look for value with guys like Vargas, Archer, and Miley. It looks like we have zero weather concerns to deal with but make sure you follow along with Mark as he gives our listeners a preview of all his hot takes for this Sunday slate of fantasy baseball games.
We have to find bats and Jason thinks we should head back to a Minnesota Twin stack or possibly a full game stack in Cincinnati. Listen closely to the podcast to find the gems that will have you cashing. When your’e done listening to our 7/28 MLB DFS Podcast, please check out our premium weather blog to stay up to date on your busy Sunday
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Thank you for listening to the Sunday 7/28 MLB DFS Podcast. Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.
It is a decent-sized 11 game slate to choose our DFS MLB pitchers from tonight. There are plenty of top arms and bargain basement options as well.
Gerrit Cole, Athletics at Astros $11,700 FD, $12,500 DK: A top DFS MLB option whenever he toes the rubber, and even more so on this 11-gamer. Cole has put himself squarely in the American League Cy Young race, going 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last 10 starts. He has struck out 94 batters in 64 innings over that span. Cole leads the Majors with 194 strikeouts and 13.47 strikeouts per nine innings. He has the potential to break this slate tonight. He is a cash-game staple tonight and probably for the rest of the season whenever he is on top of the hill.
Mike Clevinger, Indians at Blue Jays $10,200 FD, $12,100 DK: His strikeout rate this season is absurd. He has 58 strikeouts in 35.1 innings pitched! We will see tonight if the kid-gloves are removed from Terry Francona. Last time out, he allowed one run in six frames with 12 Ks. If you are fading Cole on FD, this guy has to be your next choice.
Robbie Ray, Orioles at Diamondbacks $9,600 FD, $11,400 DK: Wherever you classify him on this list of DFS MLB pitchers, his strikeout potential means I want a piece of him in my cash-game lineups. Ray has won each of his last three starts. Last time out against the Rangers he allowed four runs on six hits over six innings. In his two starts prior to that he gave up just two runs in 12 1/3 innings.
Sonny Gray, Reds at Brewers, $8,600 FD, $9,700 DK: Brewers at home!?!? No way am I using Gray here! That is what you may be saying to yourself after reading this. Well, how about if I told you the Brewers offense is 25th of the season in productivity against right-handed starters? I understand that the risk is there but to differentiate from the crowd, Gray is an excellent GPP choice.
Homer Bailey, Athletics at Astros $6,900 FD, $7,400 DK: Making his second appearance for the Athletics, Bailey is a intriguing GPP option tonight. Bailey was sharp in his A’s debut, allowing just two runs over six innings in a win against the Mariners. The right-hander returns to his home state of Texas for a matchup with the Astros, whom he’s 4-0 against with a 1.46 ERA in eight career starts.
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