I always try to be transparent with you guys and this is by far one of the worst slates I’ve had to write about all season. I honestly don’t trust any of these guys and I’ll be treading the waters lightly on this slate because of that. The 8/2 DFS pitching options are downright ugly and we’re going to take a few shots in the dark to try to find some nice value plays. With so many bad pitchers toeing the rubber, it’s going to be critical to pay up for hitters and connect on a solid cheap pitcher.
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8/2 DFS Pitching Cash Game Plays of the Day
Lance Lynn, TEX vs. DET
DK ($11,700) FD ($10.500)
Having Lynn as my cash game pitcher of the day should tell you everything you need to know about this slate but he’s having an incredible season. While a 3.83 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are not necessarily special numbers, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league since the opening month. In fact, Lynn is generating a 3.05 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last 15 starts while striking out 124 batters across 101.1 innings of action. That’s led to him scoring at least 30 FanDuel points in 14 of those starts, which is exactly what you want out of a cash game pitcher.
What really makes him intriguing is this matchup with the Tigers. The Motor City Kitties currently rank bottom-two in K rate, wOBA, xwOBA, SLG, OBP. OPS, BA and runs scored. That doesn’t even take into consideration that Detroit just traded their best hitter and Texas enters this game as a –240 favorite.
Robbie Ray, ARI vs. WSH
DK ($10,400) FD ($10,000)
It’s weird to call Ray a cash game pitcher with his volatility but his K upside actually gives him a pretty solid floor. We’re talking about a guy who has at least 49 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, striking out 44 batters in those 30.1 innings. Any guy who has a 32 percent K rate and 3.70 xFIP while recording a 13.2 K/9 rate at home is worth a shot and it gives him one of the best floors on this ugly slate. Washington isn’t the best matchup but they do rank 15th in SLG and 13th in runs scored, so it could be worse.
8/2 DFS Pitching Mid-Tier Options
Martin Perez, MIN vs. KC
DK ($7,900) FD ($7,000)
This is where it starts getting scary. Perez is certainly risky but he’s got some serious upside in this circumstance. The major reason why is because of this matchup, with Kansas City ranking 25th in wOBA, 24th in xwOBA, 26th in xSLG, 25th in runs scored and 26th in OPS.
That’s obviously terrible and it puts any pitcher in play against them. It’s not like Perez has been terrible this season either, scoring at least 24 FanDuel points in 13 of his 21 starts. That would be an ideal score in this price range, as he’s also one of the best bets on the board to grab a win. In fact, the Twins enter this matchup as a –250 favorite.
Steven Matz, NYM at PIT
DK ($7,700) FD ($7,800)
Matz is coming off of his best start of the season, pitching a complete-game shutout against these Pirates. That obviously puts him in play here and he’s been much better than his season-long numbers would indicate. Two horrendous starts against the Phillies have absolutely bombarded his numbers, as he allowed 15 runs in his two outings against them. If you take out those two starts, Matz actually has a 3.31 ERA and 1.25 WHIP this season.
That pairs beautifully with the fact that Matz is pitching to a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his last four appearances. The complete-game shutout against the Pirates is really no surprise when you look at Pittsburgh’s numbers either, with the Pirates ranked 26th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and last in OBP against left-handed pitching this season.
8/2 DFS Pitching GPP Punt Plays
Kevin Gausman, ATL vs. CIN
DK ($8,300) FD ($6,300)
Gausman has some unsightly numbers this season but I’m going to go ahead and use pitchers against the Reds for the rest of the year. Not only do they rank 27th in xwOBA, 29th in xSLG and 23rd in runs scored, they just traded Scooter Gennett and Yasiel Puig. Those are two of their best hitters and this is easily one of the worst lineups in baseball without them.
That’s huge for an inconsistent pitcher like Gausman, as he’s actually got eight Ks in back-to-back games. This is a guy who’s scored at least 43 FanDuel points in four of his 15 starts this season and he’ll be the best value on the board if he duplicates that in this superb matchup. This dude is due for some serious positive regression too, as his 4.15 FIP and 24 percent K rate is a better indicator than his disastrous 5.97 ERA. Not to mention, Gausman enters this game as a –140 favorite.
Dustin May, LAD vs. SD
DK ($7,600) FD ($5,800)
It’s always risky to use a guy in his debut but Dodgers pitchers are always worth starting at home. This is young stud performed well at the minors too, generating a 2.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at Triple-A this season. That’s backed up by his 3.47 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in the minors dating back to the start of last season, as his 24.5 percent K rate is an impressive mark too.
He actually put up those impressive numbers in a hitter-friendly environment and he’s fully stretched out for this game. The matchup against San Diego is what we really like though, with the Padres sitting 27th in K rate, 23rd in xSLG, 25th in xwOBA and 24th in OBP. Vegas agrees, making May a –190 favorite with the Padres projected for fewer than four runs.
Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day
Steven Matz +0.5 Strikeouts over Trevor Williams
I was blown away that we are getting strikeouts in this prop. I would have taken -0.5 Ks with Matz but we will cash this prop if these guys tie in strikeouts. Thats shocking considering that Matz has the much easier matchup and that Williams is pitching to a 7.01 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his last six starts.
Clayton is a baseball lifer who hails north of the border, his Blue Jays works can be found at Jays Journal where he is the site co-editor. Clayton is branching into DFS with Win Daily where he will look to apply his baseball and fantasy knowledge moving forward.