Tag:

Prop Bets

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 4.28

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 MLB season! MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more.

Wind, wind, and more wind for the 10 MLB games that we have to choose from on Monkey Knife Fight. If you have read any of my MLB articles in the past you will know that I may just put more value in wind conditions than just about anyone. If you would like to know why here’s an interesting article from Forbes where you can dip your toe into the science. https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2018/10/23/understanding-the-meteorology-of-a-fly-ball-may-help-baseball-teams/?sh=72cd679b6a5c. Once you wrap up here pop on over there and you’ll gain an understanding as to why I value it so much. Ok, I am done nerding out, let’s dive into our Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.28.

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.28

More or Less: Athletics at Rays

Bizarro world here but you are seeing this correctly, I am taking the under 8.5 K’s on Glasnow and the over on Irving’s 3.5 K’s. The A’s are one of the best teams on this young season with making contact and they are sitting at 11th in strikeouts averaging 8.8 K’s per 9 innings. Rays on the other hand are bottom five sitting just under 10 strikeouts per game and a strikeout percentage of 32.7% against left handed pitching. No props out elsewhere but I’d imagine the number for Glasnow will be lower than 8.5 when they come out.

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.28

More or Less: Red Sox at Mets

Don’t kill me here, Degrom is the best pitcher in baseball with a bullet. By no means do I think he’s going to get rocked. I just don’t think he will K 11 batters. The Red Sox are top five in the following categories: Slugging (1st), OBP (3rd), Babip (1st), OPS (1st), ISO (5th), Strikeouts (5th), and Extra Base Hits (1st). Add the wind blowing out to right around 10 MPH and I’ll go under just this once. Mets bats are nowhere near as potent on the season sitting near the bottom in almost every power category but one thing they are good at is not striking out sitting at 3rd on the season with 8.17 K’s per nine innings. Pivetta is far from a strikeout artist only exceeding 4 strikeouts once in four appearances and that was against one the worst offensive teams in baseball in the Orioles so the under feels pretty good here.

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.28

Home Run Derby:

With a 9.5 implied run total and climbing, favorable wind conditions, and a gas can arm in Erick Fedde against a Blue Jays offense that just put nine on the Natinals (bonus points if you get that) last night and this will be my target for offense this morning. I’m going to lead it with Vlad Jr who was the main reason for those nine runs blasting three HR’s. After that you can pick your poison but I’m going to opt for Bo Bichette and Trea Turner. Bichette is sitting at a .231 ISO and 41% hard hit rate against righties . Trea is turning it on lately hitting four home runs in his last eight games including two last night and he is smashing Left Handed pitchers albeit a small sample with three of his six homers in 19 plate appearances. My preference is to stick with the .5 HR’s but your mileage may vary. I never go beyond the 1.5 HR just due to the variance that comes from home runs.

Extra Plays***

As you guys/gals know the plays will change throughout the day. If and when they do I’ll post more plays in discord so we can take advantage of line movement. Make sure to join us at windailysports.com/chat so you don’t miss out.

This is just a quick little article to get the blood flowing for everyone. Hope you enjoyed my Monkey Knife Fight MLB plays 4.28. Expect more articles with more selections as the data evens out over this long 162 game season. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 4.12

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Happy Monday Morning ladies and gentlemen! We have a nice windy 14 game slate ahead of us that we should have some fun with. We’ll have a little fun with the bats but at the end of the day you have people trying to hit a round ball traveling close to 100 mph with a cylindrical stick so while you will see some hitting props on here I tend to lean towards pitchers when choosing plays.

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.12

More or Less: Rangers at Rays

The two top aces and most prolific strikeout pitchers on the board today against two of the most strikeout prone teams in the early part of the 2021 season. It feels like a trap but I’m falling for it. I don’t really think I need to say all that much about either Tyler Glasnow or Gerrit Cole. If you don’t know who they are I don’t really know why you’re reading this. Take the overs and have some fun.

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.12

More or Less: Indians at White Sox

This prop feels like a trap. Triston Mckenzie is an absolute top young army but way more young than top at this point. He only pitched 3.2 in his first outing on the 5th and it looks like Cleveland is going to take their time getting him going this season. It doesn’t help much that in the 58 pitches he threw he managed to walk four. He can rack up K’s with the best of them, I just don’t know if he’s in long enough. Carlos Rodon on the other hand looked great in his first game striking out 9 and in his last stint as a starter in 2019 he struck out no less than 5 batters in all seven starts. I don’t expect him to have as strong of an outing against Cleveland but I feel pretty good about him fanning 5 today.

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.12

More or Less:

With a 10+ run implied total, wind blowing out to dead center hard, JD Martinez fresh off of a three home run game, and the team with the highest average launch angle in the league in the Minnesota Twins the home run derby for this game is the perfect fit. My usual stance is to just take the 0.5 goal and take the money but I’m feeling a little froggy given the combination of circumstances in this game. It’s likely I end up taking the 1.5 goal to triple my return. I’ve been trying to talk myself out of it but I just don’t see a scenario where Happ or Perez slows down either of these offenses today.

Extra Plays***

I will be putting out extra plays as I see them in our discord chat so be sure to pop in there from time to time to see what pops up. As lines change so does the value.

This is just a quick little article to get the blood flowing for everyone. Hope you enjoyed my Monkey Knife Fight MLB plays 4.12. Expect more articles with more selections as the data evens out over this long 162 game season. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

Monkey Knife Fight Plays 4.8

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Did you miss me? Sure you did. I hate to have kept you all waiting for so long but I promise you it’ll be worth it. We have six games to choose from as of right now and one of the things I like to do when it comes to MLB is to target wind conditions when choosing hit props. It is by no means a guarantee but the slightest edges make a huge difference over the long term. I won’t melt your face with the math but a 10 mph wind can add or subtract over 30 feet to the distance of a fly ball. Enough chit-chat, here is my Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8.

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8

More or Less: Cubs at Pirates

Both the Pirates and the Cubs have been at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to K-rate over the last few seasons in the MLB and they have started 2021 in the same way. Cubs have struck out 48 times in five games thus fast including striking out seven times against Tyler Anderson in his first start. Jake Arrieta is a little tougher, but with the Pirates sporting a 26.9% K-rate in the early part of this season I’m willing to take the chance. If you were so inclined to take the under on Jake I would not argue with you but I think he will throw his 85 pitches, get his 5-6 innings and get his 5 K’s and call it a day.

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8

Home Run Derby: Brewers at Cardinals

This is one of those situations where I’m using the wind to my advantage. It’s projected to be blowing out to left field at around 13mph and you are giving me guys like Yelich, Arenoda, Cain, and Arenado to choose from. Sign me up for that. I don’t get cute with my risk and I’ll stick with my 1.5x return for a home run but if you wanted 3x your investment for two homers I think you are in a reasonable spot to take advantage. I just think the return isn’t worth the risk for the 3 HR prop so stay away from that. I know the Brewers have started a little slow but I have all the confidence in the world that they’ll get on track.

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8

More or Less: Diamondbacks at Rockies

Gray had a freak incident in his first start against the Dodger and had to leave the game in the 6th with full body cramping. Even with the issue he fanned seven against one of the most prolific offenses in the MLB and now he gets a Diamondbacks team with a .631 OPS and they were just skunked 8-0 in their last game against Colorado. When it comes to Merrill Kelly…well…did I mention Colorado put up 8 runs on Arizona last night? Did I mention how many they scored the night before? Also 8 runs. Colorado is 4th in the MLB in slugging with a .465 and 9th best in strikeouts only striking out 8.83 per game on average. Kelly will be a target of mine down the road in DFS but he was smashed in his first outing against the Padres giving up three earned in four innings only striking out four batters and walking three batters. I do not expect a much different result against the Rockies in Colorado.

This is just a quick little article to get the blood flowing for everyone. Hope you enjoyed my Monkey Knife Fight MLB plays 4.8. Expect more articles with more selections as the data evens out over this long 162 game season. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s the end of the road ladies and gentlemen and what a ride it has been. It is safe to say that we have never experienced anything quite like 2020 in fantasy sports and beyond. Now that we have turned the page on the year that was let’s finish this NFL season with a bang as the Kansas City Chiefs play essentially what is a road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa. Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NBA season! MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more. Enough wasting your time Let’s look at our Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021.

This is the point where I usually put a note in telling you to avoid high risk plays so that you can remain profitable over the long term but it’s the Super Bowl, lets have some fun today! Additionally to avoid having the specific plays change minutes after I post this article I’m going to give you players that I like and where I see their props hitting so that you can take the over or under respectively. Don’t fret though I’m gonna have a couple of high risk YOLO plays at the bottom that I’m going to have a little fun with.

I’m working largely with what I’ve been provided. There are many more plays that I would like to recommend today but the player pool is pretty limited for tomorrows contest. No worries though, we’ll cash no matter what.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady:

Monkey Knife Fight’s passing yards are going the wrong way in my opinion, they opened at 301.5 and have already gone up to 305.5 . I know Bruce Arians loves to air it out but in my opinion the only way that Tampa wins this game is by a run heavy approach where they can shorten the game and reduce the number of possessions Patrick Mahomes has to work with. Our model has Brady at 285 passing yards so take advantage of the public pushing the number in the opposite direction.

Buccaneers Pass Catchers:

The side effect that comes with our quarterbacks being so severely projected over what we are seeing with our models is that the pass catchers are also way over what we are expecting in this contest. Shockingly, Mike Evans is only about a yard over our projections ( Stix 68.2 vs. MKF 69.5) respectively so it may be a good idea to wait on some movement before you make a play with Evans one way or another. To this point they haven’t given is any other Bucs receiving yard props to use so I have nothing else to really add to this right now.

Leonard Fournette:

Right now there is a pretty big discrepancy between sites like DK Sportsbook and Monkey Knife Fight where the yardage prop is 59.5 on MKF and 48.5 on DK. I’m inclined to go under 59.5 rushing yards on MKF and here’s why. I do expect Tampa to run the ball a good bit more but Ronald Jones still saw a 54% to 45% snap share advantage after being gone for two weeks. I know we all want to crown Fournette, but the truth is that while Jones is there and not in the doghouse he gets more work than Fournette in running situations.

Kansas City Chiefs:

Patrick Mahomes:

With the expectation that Tampa will try to control the clock with the run game as much as possible we can also infer that Patrick Mahomes will additionally receive fewer opportunities to add to his yardage totals. Our models are giving us a 302 yard passing total. Much like Tom Brady‘s prop on Monkey Knife Fight Mahomes is being juiced way too high by the rest of the public as seen by the 335.5 yard prop. I think this one will likely stay put but if the public keeps taking the over this number could exceed 340 by game time. I know it is ugly and unsexy but I will be going under on passing yards by both QB’s.

Chiefs Pass Catchers:

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are each sitting at 101.5 and 103.5 receiving yards respectively on Monkey Knife Fight where Stix’s model has Hill 14 yards less at 87.5 and Kelce with 19 less receiving yards at 84.5. This would make sense given the how many people are pushing the over on this game. I know it is the Chiefs, but the Buccaneers have been one of the elite defensed in the NFL for the majority of the season and actually do have the right defensive player to put up a good fight. Combine that with the expectation that this game will be a bit grindier than usual and I’ll be the boring guy who wins with the unders Sunday.

Super Bowl LV Yolo Play:

More or Less (5 of 5) 20x return:

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Sports Betting

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

What? Did you think MKF was going to end just because the NFL season is ending? Now that we have a handful of NBA games under our belt we have enough data to attack these slates. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving plays for NBA as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NBA season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7:

Star Showdown (Early Games) More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

The only thing Kyrie Irving has done since the Spencer Dinwiddie injury is average a usage rate of 32.46%, 21.75 shots per game, and just under 34 minutes a contest. In the first two games after the injury Kyrie was clearly trying to play hero ball and his FG% suffered as he continued to throw up bad shots. In his last two however he’s looked much more comfortable seeing an almost 20 point improvement on his field goals. Now you add in Durant missing the game tonight and the usage and shot count will be even higher against a 76’ers team with a 224 point implied total. Over

Colin Sexton on the other hand is the only offensive weapon Cleveland has with the exception of Drummond with around a 25.5% usage rate on 19 shots per game. Now he gets to go against one of the faster paced teams in Memphis without their best player in Ja Morant. Vegas seems to be adjusting to the loss of Ja finally with the implied total of only 210.5, but Memphis is only a 4 point favorite so Sexton should get his usual mid-upper 30’s in minutes. Over

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

We talked about the reasons for going with Kyrie above. The sheer usage he’ll get tonight leans me towards the over but with no Spencer or Durant I expect Brooklyn as a whole to struggle against Philly. In games where the 76ers feel comfortable with their lead they have no issues letting Joel Embiid take a breath and in those games he’s lucky to break 30 minutes. His usage rate also drops from around 33% to around 23% on average and he’s only exceeded 21 points once out of the four games where they carried a strong lead into the 4th.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Anthony Davis is dealing with an abductor strain so we all know what that means. Mr. Glass is notorious for sitting when dealing with almost any injury and the times he does go he leaves early half the time after aggravating the injury. If you take AD off the court Lebron James‘s usage rate jumps from 32.7% to 34% and he averages around 30 points per 48 minutes. He also has a limited sample against the Spurs themselves and has scored 26 points in each of the contests this season. Over

DeMar Derozan has also been extremely consistent in his limited sample against the Lakers this season scoring 23 points in each contest with a usage rate of around 22.5%. I am aware that in those two games LaMarcus Aldridge was not on the court but even with LMA on the court there is minimal impact in any substantial way to Derozan’s stats and even a slight uptick in usage and points per minute. Over

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

It doesn’t seem to matter who Deshaun Watson is throwing the ball to now that Bill O’Brien isn’t their to neuter the offense. With no Will Fuller, all Watson does is throw for 340 yards against a tough Colts defense. Mitchell Trubisky is quite the opposite, he finds a way to largely underwhelm in whatever situation he finds himself. If Foles is active this week I wouldn’t be shocked to find him on the bench in the second half. In either situation I prefer Allen Robinson over Brandon Cooks. Cooks tends to struggle his historically when playing through injury and he’ll get matched up with CB Kyle Fuller which is no easy task when 100 percent. There is no such lock down option to slow down Robinson, he’s the no doubt target monster on Chicago, and he’s getting the bonus. Sign me up.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I’ll keep this short. Aaron Rodgers has owned Detroit and there is no chance in hell I’m picking Marvin Jones or Matthew Stafford over him or Davante Adams even with bonus points.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Nothing about Brandon Allen’s 150 yards per game for Cincinnati makes me thing an injured Tee Higgins is going to do much of anything this week. Sure he make get a few targets and hit that 55.5 number but nothing about this screams over on the Cincy side. On the other side we have ourselves a revenge narrative with the red rifle heading back to play his old Bengals team and we love to target there just about as much as 2lock likes birthday narratives. It’s not just that Dalton is running the revenge narrative though. He’s beginning to creep up to double digit targets for Ceedee Lamb throwing nine his way last week and with all of the troubles at offensive line for Dallas it would be in his best interest to make use of his slot receivers and tight ends more often going forward. Not that Cincy can put pressure on anyone but he needs to stick with what will keep him healthy down the stretch.

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I am only playing the numbers here, 323.5 is a big number even for a QB like Patrick Mahomes and I know people have a hard time believing this, but the Dolphins defense is no joke this season. Ever since they changed their scheme up in week three they’ve been a completely different monster on the defensive side of ball only allowing one 300 yard passing day since week 5. I know Mahomes is no normal QB but they may shake things up just a bit to make things interesting. Robby Anderson is gonna have no DJ Moore to soak up targets being on the reserve covid list and we’ve seen this Denver defense get shredded by everyone they’ve gone up against. On the DFS side of things I’m going to have a little more Curtis Samuel but 79.5 yards should not be a difficult number for Robby to reach today.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.6 Main Slate

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

With the way Carson Wentz has been playing and the talks of Jaylen Hurts getting more involved in the Eagles offense I have no faith that Wentz with out pass Aaron Rodgers or even get within shouting distance. On the opposite side of things the Eagles are respectable in run defense and Matt Lafluer refuses to give Aaron Jones enough volume to surpass Miles Sanders and what should be a ground based attack where the Packers defense is at it’s weakest.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

My expectation here is pretty straight forward, after a few weeks of injuries the Colts defense is getting back to normal so I don’t see the run game going anywhere for Houston so I don’t expect much from David Johnson. On the other hand Jonathon Taylor looks to finally be out of the dog house and played well against the Packers in his last game getting 22 carries for 90 yards and if the Colts are smart they’ll hide Phillip Rivers as much as possible going forward and Houston has such a soft run game it should be easy to do tomorrow. Deshaun Watson may have lost Will Fuller for the year but he still has Brandon Cooks, KeKe Coutee, a pair of capable tight ends, and two pass catching packs. The offense may change but he should still produce plenty in the air.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Gonna keep this super short, it is Derick Henry and Nick Chubb season and neither Ryan Tannehill or Baker Mayfield regularly exceed their respective 245.5 and 225.5 numbers on the best of days. I’m expecting this game to move quickly with both teams living on the ground.

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Derek Carr might not get 150 yards in the air today. Nothing on him it’s just that the Raiders are very open about the fact they they play as slow of a tempo as humanly possible. They only pace up when they absolutely have to and it’s the Jets. He won’t have to. Kirk Cousins on the other hand has been surprisingly good these last several weeks throwing for at least 292 in each of the last three weeks and Mike Glennon showed himself capable enough to keep a game close against a week defense which Minnesota clearly is so Minnesota like won’t take the air out of the ball completely tomorrow. If for some reason Glennon Does struggle Gardner Minshew is ready to step in so I feel pretty good here.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.6 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

****I was originally going heavy with the Denver/New Orleans game but when the QB news dropped MKF decided to just pull the game altogether. Can’t really say I blame them.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

Fun with overs to start the day! Two of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL against two of the weakest secondary units in the league, and neither team seems to care all that much with running the ball, and you’re giving me 290 yards passing with both Justin Herbert and Josh Allen? Yes please. Since we are looking at only needing two of three for a 1.8x return I’m probably going to lay a little extra on this one. I know we’re looking at 15mph wind in Buffalo but that’s not really something that worries me with strong arm QB’s who regularly exceed 300 yards through the air any given week.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

It’s time people started taking the Raiders seriously. I know it’s Falcons (injured at that) but people are missing the boat here and have been all season. Although I don’t think it would be a problem no matter the health of Atlanta but **Matt Ryan** has struggled offensively whenever he doesn’t have his entire set of playmakers on the field so I’m truthfully just expecting a flat out dud by Ryan. On the other side of things the Falcons have been surprisingly stout in run stopping so we can have ourselves a bit of fun attacking the pass funnel they have going on in ATL. Pretty easy for me personally to lean **Derek Carr** and **Darren Waller** today.

More or Less Early Games (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Touched on both plays above, the early game selection just allows me to package both of them in on play. **Josh Allen** should exceed 300 yards passing today and I’m thinking we get a classic Matt Ryan letdown game.

Rapidfire (3 of 3): 6x return

I know they are fun but I am going to stay away from the huge 6 player prop plays this week and go for something a little more reasonable for our higher risk play and we get to go to everyone’s favorite game of the day. **Patrick Mahomes** and Travis Kelce have been lights out for weeks with Mahomes going for over 340 yards passing in three straight and Kelce has topped 100 yards in those same three whereas Brady has been…meh. The only lean away from Kansas City is my choice of **Antonio Brown** over Tyreek Hill with 16.5 bonus yards. AB clearly still has it and his target volume keeps going up and I think this week is the official welcome back celebration for Brown. I may have been so bold as to take him straight up this week but luckily I don’t have to make that choice.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Prop Bets Week 12

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL Prop Bets Week 12
We have been cooking with fire in this article lately, going 4-0 again last week on the main bets. Thanksgiving was good to us as well, with a 3-0 main bets record and 1-1 on Pizza Money Bets! That brings to cumulative record to 28-19 which is not too shabby. We'll be looking t...

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26:

Gotta love bonus football. Can’t wait to stuff my face and pass out in front of the TV on Thursday but before we do that let’s take get some prop plays covered at Monkey Knife Fight so we can wake up from our food coma with some extra ducketts for Black Friday. Speaking of Black Friday, Win Daily Sports is running their biggest promotion ever. We’re offering 50% off everything site-wide! All you need to do is go to windailysports.com and take your pick. Click on the picture below for more info.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Either I’m completely off base with the Lions and Matthew Stafford or Vegas sees something that I am missing so if you want to play it safe you can take the over on Deshaun Watson then play Stafford both ways and hedge a little for a safer play. With no Kenny Golladay, an injured thumb, Matt Patricia’s bland offense, potentially no De’Andre Swift or TJ Hockenson and the fact that Stafford has only surpassed 277 yards three times I have a hard time thinking the Lions are only three point underdogs and I have a harder time thinking Matt will but up a big game with Marvin Hall, Marvin Jones, and Kerryon Johnson as his main three options. On the flip side since Bill O’Brien’s firing Deshaun Watson has thrown for over 300 yards in four of six games and one of those was in Cleveland in 50mph wind (made some money on the unders that week if you followed that article). They have no ability to run the ball either so it is all on Watsons shoulders and he is incredibly capable, a slight caveat there when it comes to Duke Johnson, I don’t think it changes a lot but I have a purely gut feeling that this game is going to get out of hand and Duke is going to have his best game all season. It’s a low bar but I’m taking a couple of flyers in DFS with him.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I explained Deshaun Watson’s deal over Stafford already. Brandon Cooks and Will Fuller the 38th are interesting though. My original lean was Cooks but are guy Stix hooked be up with some data and it’s showing a clear advantage to Will Fuller by almost 20 yards and I’m not going to go against those projections when they show that clear of a divide. In Stix I trust with this one, you would be crazy not to. It is the best model in the industry.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I am attacking both overs in this Washington/Dallas prop. Dallas has had some struggles but as we talking about last week the O-line is getting healthy and while Dalton isn’t great if he is given time to survey the field he can find his receivers and the one thing Dallas has is talent on the outside. We already put a play out there on discord telling you to attack the over 4.5 receptions for Ceedee Lamb before it moves. If we are assuming at least five catches with an average of 13.1 yards per catch you can do the math and see why we want the over. **Antonio Gibson** is finally starting to get the work that we have been clamoring for. We ideally want 20 carries a game for this guy but he shredded the Dallas run Defense for 6.4 yards per carry having his best game all year with 128 yards on 20 carries last time out so even if he only gets 10 carries and we expect a similar baseline he is easily surpassing 58.5 yards rushing. I don’t think he gets less than 14 carries Thursday so this number is at least 20 yards low in my eyes. Don’t sweat the injury designation as we was a full participant in practice and will not have any limitations come game time.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I know Alex Smith is the king of dink and dunk but when you have the kind of talent that can take a 3 yard dump of 60 yards to the house the yards pile up. He’s gone over 320 yards passing in two of his three starts and who does Dallas have defensively that can keep him from doing that again? The touchdown variance has been really odd on both of those games and we all know in fantasy things tend to regress to the mean but that is a DFS conversation so I’ll leave it at that. MKF is under the assumption that Dalton is going to exceed Alex Smith in passing yards and I just do not see what they do. The only reason he didn’t do more last week is because it simply wasn’t needed. The dink and dunk is the very reason I see JD McKissic beating out Terry McLaurin in catch totals. To be honest even if the bonus went to Terry I still would have gone JD. Smith is targeting JD 15 times a game during a normal script and Ron Rivera is spliting usage 50/50 for him and Gibson right down the middle and recreating what he did with CMC in Carolina. It is crazy to see that if you add it all up it the production is the same as well so I’m completely comfortable going with over props for both Gibson and McKissic in their respective rolls.

High Risk, Turkey Day, Coma Play (optional)

Want to stuff for face throw 10 bucks on a high risk play and potentially wake up to a big bankroll boost? Well here you go. I make no promises here. Just something for a little fun. we’ve only hit 5 of 6 once just missing out on a 20x return (Thanks Cleveland) so the odds are stacked against you. The point may be completely moot with Detroit/Houston because of Swift’s status so I’ll put two here. Only play one please unless you are good with your bankroll. Remember what I always say. If you NEED the play to pay off, you really should not be playing it.

More or Less (6 of 6): 30x return

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Prop Bets

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.28

More or Less: Athletics at Rays

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.28

More or Less: Red Sox at Mets

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.28

Home Run Derby:

Extra Plays***

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.12

More or Less: Rangers at Rays

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.12

More or Less: Indians at White Sox

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.12

More or Less:

Extra Plays***

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8

More or Less: Cubs at Pirates

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8

Home Run Derby: Brewers at Cardinals

Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 4.8

More or Less: Diamondbacks at Rockies

Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady:

Buccaneers Pass Catchers:

Leonard Fournette:

Kansas City Chiefs:

Patrick Mahomes:

Chiefs Pass Catchers:

Super Bowl LV Yolo Play:

More or Less (5 of 5) 20x return:

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7:

Star Showdown (Early Games) More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

More or Less (2 of 3): 1.8x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less Early Games (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (3 of 3): 6x return

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL Thanksgiving Slate 11.26:

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

High Risk, Turkey Day, Coma Play (optional)

More or Less (6 of 6): 30x return

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.