Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7

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Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7:

Star Showdown (Early Games) More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

The only thing Kyrie Irving has done since the Spencer Dinwiddie injury is average a usage rate of 32.46%, 21.75 shots per game, and just under 34 minutes a contest. In the first two games after the injury Kyrie was clearly trying to play hero ball and his FG% suffered as he continued to throw up bad shots. In his last two however he’s looked much more comfortable seeing an almost 20 point improvement on his field goals. Now you add in Durant missing the game tonight and the usage and shot count will be even higher against a 76’ers team with a 224 point implied total. Over

Colin Sexton on the other hand is the only offensive weapon Cleveland has with the exception of Drummond with around a 25.5% usage rate on 19 shots per game. Now he gets to go against one of the faster paced teams in Memphis without their best player in Ja Morant. Vegas seems to be adjusting to the loss of Ja finally with the implied total of only 210.5, but Memphis is only a 4 point favorite so Sexton should get his usual mid-upper 30’s in minutes. Over

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

We talked about the reasons for going with Kyrie above. The sheer usage he’ll get tonight leans me towards the over but with no Spencer or Durant I expect Brooklyn as a whole to struggle against Philly. In games where the 76ers feel comfortable with their lead they have no issues letting Joel Embiid take a breath and in those games he’s lucky to break 30 minutes. His usage rate also drops from around 33% to around 23% on average and he’s only exceeded 21 points once out of the four games where they carried a strong lead into the 4th.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Anthony Davis is dealing with an abductor strain so we all know what that means. Mr. Glass is notorious for sitting when dealing with almost any injury and the times he does go he leaves early half the time after aggravating the injury. If you take AD off the court Lebron James‘s usage rate jumps from 32.7% to 34% and he averages around 30 points per 48 minutes. He also has a limited sample against the Spurs themselves and has scored 26 points in each of the contests this season. Over

DeMar Derozan has also been extremely consistent in his limited sample against the Lakers this season scoring 23 points in each contest with a usage rate of around 22.5%. I am aware that in those two games LaMarcus Aldridge was not on the court but even with LMA on the court there is minimal impact in any substantial way to Derozan’s stats and even a slight uptick in usage and points per minute. Over

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!