Another day of MLB let’s dive right into it. Check slack for potential live bets or post any questions and I will be happy to discuss.
Overall Record 204-191 Units -20.04MLBMets +140 1 to win 1.4Nats -142 2.13 to win 1.5Braves +116 1.5 to win 1.74Rangers -108 1.62 to win 1.5Reds +108 1.5 to win 1.62Rays -112 2.8 to win 2.5
Managed to scrape out a small profit last night even after the Brad Hand meltdown, which I won’t mention any further or I’ll need a new keyboard. Bullpens are bad, and going under F5 with this juice ball is tough but that’s the cost of doing business here.
Due to the short slate today I was able to run the MLBMA algo for the early games, which I usually fade. The running theme lately has been asset protection until the bounces start going our way. We’ve missed OUs by a single run, and had wins blown by errors & blown saves. Rather than go on tilt or get emotional and overreact, I very simply scale down my bets into inevitable drawdowns. It sounds extremely simple and intuitive, until you speak to the average gambler who is irrationally determined to get it all back in one night in the midst of a cold streak (Which for MLBMA is still over 50% even during tough times). Here’s another tip on discipline; If you only bet 1%, you can take 10 losses in a row and only be down 9.6%. The average gambler with no concept of risk management routinely gambles +20% of their stack on any given night. This is a sure road to ruin.
I absolutely despise grading picks. Lately I’ve been finding success when getting multiple pings by playing games in Round Robin format. I do not advise that today; The heavy odds won’t guarantee a profitable day if you miss the wrong one. Again, don’t let anyone tell you what to play or how to play. Think of me as a very experienced guide on the matter, nothing more. There isn’t a person or algorithm on the planet with perfect predictive capabilities. Here’s a few ways to attack today’s slate.
I think I’m going to likely play all four games for a very small relative bet, and then a Round Robin on the remaining three (AB, AC, BC)
Full slate on the docket tonight, and I’ve been hacking away all morning at this board looking for our best opportunities.
The first two pings today were on heavy favorites we’re going to have to package together to avoid getting crushed laying chalk. The first are the Indians, that have a three phase edge tonight over the Royals. The second pick is the Red Sox (but there’s no way I can rationalize playing them for nine innings). My custom MLBMA bullpen metric has the White Sox with the number one overall bullpen over the last seven days, and the Red Sox have thoroughly documented issues closing games out. Risk the push, and save the emotional capital.
I have to apologize, family came before work and I just got back in the lab. This is my one and only chance to get this work out tonight. There are more hits tonight (including the 2 pack above) than I would generally play. I’m not 100% sure how I’m going to attack tonight. I can’t tell you how to bet; I don’t know your bankroll or your expectations. I know I look for constant percentage gains over time. During times like this last week, I usually just want to stay risk averse. Keep the bets small, catch some momentum, and then scale back up. I have found not only success, but peace of mind using alternate methods of betting, like Round Robins. I understand the downside; That they open themselves to partial gains but I would counter with the fact that they also prevent total losses. You know the mantra of discipline here; Capital protection is paramount. Scale down wagers during drawdowns and do not system hop over a few poor results.
Possible red flag trying to short the Twins offense, but they’re not hitting; 24th in team wOBA over the last seven days.
Also depending on the site, you might not be able to pair those two OAK plays. I think I prefer the F5 under to looking for a road win, but I’ll be the first to tell you that trying to grade picks can be a fool’s errand. Maybe we can pair the OAK F5 u5 with the TB/MIN F5 u5, and then the remaining 3 in sets of 2 (AB,AC,BC).
Good luck
Let’s get it.
We are back at it again with a full slate of MLB. Tonight is unfortunately a busy night for me so I’m not sure how many live bets I would be able to get in. Regardless jump in once in a while and see if there are any updates. You can leave me any questions or concerns in there as well.
Overall Record 201-189 Units -21.3
MLBRangers -144 2.16 to win 1.5Orioles +175 1 to win 1.75Nats F5 -.5 -162 1.62 to win 1Rays -107 3.21 to win 3Dodgers -108 3.24 to win 3
We are starting to string along a few nice winning days. There is a great amount of variance in Sports betting or any form of gambling. There will be ups and downs daily, monthly and yearly. It’s imperative to have a process and continue to stay true to that regardless of wins or losses.
I’m excited to announce that we are adding yet another component to our sports betting content. I have hinted the last few days that live bets where on the horizon. It was apparent that by the time I would be able to post, the line would have already moved and lot of times drastically. Live betting is about getting the plays at an optimal point and doing so quickly. That being said the solution is that I will jumping in slack chat and providing those live bets. This will give me a chance to provide them to you quite quickly. It’s also a great way for us to discuss the games and anything else you have questions on. Those of you that are DFS players already know that fantastic work that has been going on in there and I look forward to adding to it. I hope to see all of you in there.
Overall
Record
200-187
Units
-19.3
MLB
Indians -177 2.66 to win 1.5
Mets +120 1 to win 1.2
Dodgers -125 2.5 to win 2
| Year | BRL % | EV | LA | XBA | XSLG | XWOBA | ||
| 2019 | 6.5 | 89.9 | 7.4 | 0.267 | 0.419 | 0.330 | ||
| MLB Avg | 6.3 | 87.4 | 11 | 0.251 | 0.409 | 0.318 |
| Year | BRL % | EV | LA | XBA | XSLG | XWOBA | ||
| 2019 | 9.0 | 88.9 | 12.7 | 0.274 | 0.458 | 0.356 | ||
| MLB Avg | 6.3 | 87.4 | 11.0 | 0.251 | 0.409 | 0.318 |
| Team | AVG | WHIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
| Giants | 0.255 | 1.34 | 70.5 % | 4.74 | 4.11 | 4.18 | 4.16 |
| Rockies | 0.265 | 1.48 | 80.5 % | 5.57 | 6.13 | 4.36 | 4.04 |
Full MLB slate plus some WNBA. As always check back for potential additions.
Overall
Record
194-183
Units
-19.64
MLB
Nats -144 2.88 to win 2
Astros +148 1 to win 1.48
Phillies -245 4.9 to win 2
Indians -185 1.85 to win 1
Rangers -130 2.6 to win 2
Reds +115 2 to win 2.3
Cards +100 1 to win 1
Giants +122 2 to win 2.44
WNBA
Sun -12.5 2.2 to win 2
Storm +115 2 to win 2.3
Great day yesterday, back at it again today. As always check back for potential updates.
Overall
Record
190-181
Units
-20.75
MLB
Phillies -108 2.7 to win 2.5
Blue Jays +138 1 to win 1.38
Cubs -150 1.5 to win 1
Brewers -145 1.45 to win 1
Royals +188 1 to win 1.88
A’s -115 1.15 to win 1
| Name | Barrel % | EV | LA | XSLG | XWOBA | HH% |
| Suarez | 10.9 | 83.9 | 21.8 | 0.429 | 0.328 | 26.1 |
| MLB Avg | 6.3 | 87.4 | 11.0 | 0.409 | 0.318 | 34.3 |
| NAME | Barrel % | EV | LA | XSLG | XWOBA | HH% |
| Richard | 10.3 | 93.4 | 5.6 | 0.435 | 0.367 | 57.4 |
| MLB Avg | 6.3 | 87.4 | 11.0 | 0.409 | 0.318 | 34.3 |
| Team | AVG | WHIP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
| LAA | 0.252 | 1.32 | 4.94 | 4.05 | 4.13 | 3.72 |
| TOR | 0.308 | 1.78 | 7.22 | 7.01 | 5.02 | 4.53 |
If you don’t have the ability to bet F5, the Angels do have the pen edge so you can bet the full game. Personally I am so disgusted by the state of the late inning bullpen in the MLB right now, I want nothing to do with any of it, especially on the road.
Let’s dive into the slate. As always check back throughout the night for additions or live bets.
Overall
Record
187-180
Units
-24.75
MLB
Pirates -202 4.04 to win 2
Angels -182 1.82 to win 1
Mets +140 1 to win 1.4
Indians -113 2.26 to win 2
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