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Managed to scrape out a small profit last night even after the Brad Hand meltdown, which I won’t mention any further or I’ll need a new keyboard. Bullpens are bad, and going under F5 with this juice ball is tough but that’s the cost of doing business here.

Due to the short slate today I was able to run the MLBMA algo for the early games, which I usually fade. The running theme lately has been asset protection until the bounces start going our way. We’ve missed OUs by a single run, and had wins blown by errors & blown saves. Rather than go on tilt or get emotional and overreact, I very simply scale down my bets into inevitable drawdowns. It sounds extremely simple and intuitive, until you speak to the average gambler who is irrationally determined to get it all back in one night in the midst of a cold streak (Which for MLBMA is still over 50% even during tough times). Here’s another tip on discipline; If you only bet 1%, you can take 10 losses in a row and only be down 9.6%. The average gambler with no concept of risk management routinely gambles +20% of their stack on any given night. This is a sure road to ruin.

Today’s Daytime Algo Hits

  • BOS F5ML (-345)
  • COL F5ML (-160)
  • NYY ML (-280)
  • KC/CLE O8.5 (-115)

I absolutely despise grading picks. Lately I’ve been finding success when getting multiple pings by playing games in Round Robin format. I do not advise that today; The heavy odds won’t guarantee a profitable day if you miss the wrong one. Again, don’t let anyone tell you what to play or how to play. Think of me as a very experienced guide on the matter, nothing more. There isn’t a person or algorithm on the planet with perfect predictive capabilities. Here’s a few ways to attack today’s slate.

  • 4 game parlay = +431
  • 3 game (minus BOS F5ML) = +316
  • COL F5ML + NYY ML = +120
  • COL F5ML + KC/CLE O8.5 = +203

I think I’m going to likely play all four games for a very small relative bet, and then a Round Robin on the remaining three (AB, AC, BC)

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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