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DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
 
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We are back for another night slate of MLB. We had a nice win today on our one day game play that was in the chat. I can’t stress enough how beneficial the chat is. Not only do some plays get posted in there but the discussions for both DFS and Bets are fantastic.

My goal here is not only to provide some plays but it’s also to help you all become better. Many concepts can apply to both DFS and Betting. I will be doing this a couple times a week in this article. I have some topics that I already know I would like to discuss however if there are things that any of you have questions on or topics you would like answers to I’m more than happy to go over them. I’ll be in the chat as always so let me know in there.

MLBNats -175Royals -125D'Backs -120Astros -180

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Back at it again tonight with a full slate of MLB. Any additions to this list are going to be in slack. Whether that is pre game or live. We had some plays in there yesterday which included some NBA Summer league. That’s where you can find me to discuss anything or just ask if there are any plays looming. Look forward to seeing you in there. Here are some pre game plays to get in on.

MLBCubs -122Phillies -102Astros +117Tigers -103
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A Quick Intro to MLBMA & The Application of ORC+/PRA+

MLBMA incorporates technical analysis & trading techniques towards the current MLB space. I’ve created some new custom stats we’ll be using going forward that will encompass all the prerequisites and save us all a ridiculous amount of time. For example, a team with a high grade in Offensive Runs Created (ORC) means it has already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted rolling averages, trend & split tests. To list all of the pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we don’t have in a 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of the structure of my statistical arguments. Ultimately my goal is to provide you with the most comprehensive & unique snapshot of any given MLB slate in an instant. I want it to cater to those without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. This type of system requires only the most serious, thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul. This type of board analysis isn’t child’s play. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. Remember that profit alone is the name of the game, and efficacy is paramount. I bet, I play DFS and I play fantasy. This table readout serves all three simultaneously, providing you speak the language.

MLBMA: ORC+/PRA+ KEY

  • ORC% – Offensive Runs Created, as a percentage of the league average
  • ORC+ – Offensive Runs Created, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 
  • PRA% – Pitching Runs Allowed, as a percentage of the league average
  • PRA+ – Pitching Runs Allowed, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 

The conditional formatting for the board is set similarly to the incomparable Baseball Savant where red is elite, all the way down to blue being the worst. So regardless which side of the ball we’re analyzing, we’re always looking for the color red and higher numbers on ORC+/PRA+.

You’ll also notice teams have different colors assigned to them. This is based on team wOBA over the last seven days, updated daily. Think of it as being on a heat scale. I always like to keep a team’s last 250 PA in mind before making my decisions. It’s a very helpful tool in avoiding a buzzsaw.

  • Red > .340
  • Orange .325 – .339
  • Yellow .291 – .325
  • Blue < .290

The highest probability hits are highlighted in green, with the specific play detailed within.

The ML Plays:

  • CLE F5ML + TB ML = (+102)
  • MIA +0.5 F5RL = (+105)
  • BOS F5ML = (-160)
  • LAD -1.5 RL = (-125)
  • UNICORN PARLAY – ALL 5 (Using LAD ML) = +860

The O/u Plays:

  • CHC/PIT O9 – Since I started, the line shifted up to 9.5. Since we needed ten runs to win this one anyway, I’ll take the current O9.5 (+100)
  • BOS/TOR O9.5 (-115)
  • PHI/ATL O9.5 – This one also moved up since this am. Now at 10. I really hate to concede that extra run; Now we need eleven to cash. The offenses aren’t playing that well to chase here. I’m letting this one go.
  • NYY/NYM O9 (-120)
  • UNICORN PARLAY – ALL 3 (+586)

It’s always tricky when it comes to game strategy in betting. In my opinion strategy has to be custom tailored to the individual, their goals and expectations. I move my patterns as well as risk depending on performance that quarter. I tend to scale down into drawdowns. Not everyone likes to be so fluid. Some players only play straight bets; You can use this information however you like, which is why it’s so useful across different formats.

Tonight, I think I may also change that LAD RL to ML & pack it with the previously posted BOS F5ML for (+128)

And if the clouds part just for us, an eight for eight sweep pays +6485 (or $7.71 pays $500 for the beginner). Thanks to the beauty of internet gaming, it’s always worth it for me to take a cheap flier on my night’s work. I see it as an overhead cost for my business. I actually maintain a certain percentage of my venture’s overall risk for low risk/high reward parlays of my algo results. Gambling sports is a strange animal at times, and results can happen in bunches. Already this season I have at least three different occasions where the algo cleared the board that particular day (check @mlbmovingavg on Twitter) and went at least 7 for 7. By playing a small amount every day, I was able to be alive and active in the game long enough to get those big hits.

Let’s get it.

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Hey everyone we are back with a short slate Monday in MLB. There are a couple pre game plays to go on and I’ll post them here. However any additions either live or pre game I’ll be posting in slack. This may not just be for MLB anything I see that looks good I’ll let you guys know. I’m also not going to post specific units anymore. With the addition of live bets and bets posted in slack it’s going to be too difficult to keep up with everything specifically. Let’s just get on games in profitable spots. Anything you need can be addressed in there so I would suggest jumping in and starting some convo.

MLBPirates +116Padres -160
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I wanted to inform you guys that I don’t have that much time to post. That being said I am very excited about the slack addition. SO much can be accomplished in there. We can discuss games, live bets, overall strategy, anything you want. Just jump in there start chatting and I will be jumping in and out all night. I know there are plenty of people that love to get in a lot of action so this is an opportunity to discuss anything you like and we can break it down. I look forward to building a community in there. There is one pre game play I greatly like and I’m going to post it in there to get the ball rolling.

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