Full slate on the docket tonight, and I’ve been hacking away all morning at this board looking for our best opportunities.
The first two pings today were on heavy favorites we’re going to have to package together to avoid getting crushed laying chalk. The first are the Indians, that have a three phase edge tonight over the Royals. The second pick is the Red Sox (but there’s no way I can rationalize playing them for nine innings). My custom MLBMA bullpen metric has the White Sox with the number one overall bullpen over the last seven days, and the Red Sox have thoroughly documented issues closing games out. Risk the push, and save the emotional capital.
BOS F5 ML + CLE ML = (-116)
I have to apologize, family came before work and I just got back in the lab. This is my one and only chance to get this work out tonight. There are more hits tonight (including the 2 pack above) than I would generally play. I’m not 100% sure how I’m going to attack tonight. I can’t tell you how to bet; I don’t know your bankroll or your expectations. I know I look for constant percentage gains over time. During times like this last week, I usually just want to stay risk averse. Keep the bets small, catch some momentum, and then scale back up. I have found not only success, but peace of mind using alternate methods of betting, like Round Robins. I understand the downside; That they open themselves to partial gains but I would counter with the fact that they also prevent total losses. You know the mantra of discipline here; Capital protection is paramount. Scale down wagers during drawdowns and do not system hop over a few poor results.
MLBMA Hits, 6.25.19
OAK/STL F5 u5
TB/MIN F5 u5
TEX F5 ML
KC/CLE F5 u5.5
Possible red flag trying to short the Twins offense, but they’re not hitting; 24th in team wOBA over the last seven days.
Also depending on the site, you might not be able to pair those two OAK plays. I think I prefer the F5 under to looking for a road win, but I’ll be the first to tell you that trying to grade picks can be a fool’s errand. Maybe we can pair the OAK F5 u5 with the TB/MIN F5 u5, and then the remaining 3 in sets of 2 (AB,AC,BC).
Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories.
Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018