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The appropriately timed Memorial Tournament kicks off on Thursday with a talented field and plenty of opportunity across all price ranges.  This week I will be focusing on APP and ARG with a little less attention to OTT.  As far as OTT goes, as always, distance helps but I’m more concerned with driving accuracy as the rough will be penal.  More on the course dynamics, key metrics (i.e. – proximities) and all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST.  Now let’s get to The Memorial Tournament Initial Picks.

Jordan Spieth (11300) – I really don’t like this elite range and I’m having a hard time finding someone worth the value.  I’ve narrowed it down to Jordan Spieth as he’s got the best all-around game of the upper tier.  He’s been doing a bit better in terms of keeping it in the fairway and he checks all other boxes.  I worry about a let-down after such a good stretch of golf so feel free to start your builds in the 9k range.

Viktor Hovland (9900) – What’s not to like.  He’s either good or great in almost every metric I looked at this week (other than some poor play in the 150-175 proximity).  Overall he’s 6th OTT and 12th on APP in this field and his short game has been just fine.

Patrick Cantlay (9500) –Rates out 12th in my 24 Round model (9th on APP last 24 rounds), which is actually pretty surprising considering how lackluster his game has been.  He finished 23rd at the PGA Championship and seemed to have put his game back in order so I think I want to grab Cantlay early if ownership is low.  I’ll note his track record at The Memorial Tournament is quite good, as is his track record on Jack Nicklaus designs.  

Louis Oosthuizen (8500) – Louis is a surprise 6th in my model this week.  His ball striking is good and his short game is excellent and he’s just the type of guy to navigate what should be a tough test this week.  I’ll note I also like Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry in this range, but didn’t want to write up too many guys in this range.

Charley Hoffman (8300) – Hoffman and Keegan (below) are the closest thing to a free square in this tournament.  No, there isn’t anyone who is “safe” from the cut, but Hoffman is pretty darn close.  He’s 2nd in the field on APP last 24 rounds, keeps it in the fairway and grades out tremendously ARG.  The one watch out for The Hoff is his history at the Memorial Tournament isn’t great. 

Keegan Bradley (8000) – If you want to try to find a flaw in his game, good luck.  He’s actually improving with the putter and has been striking the ball to the tune of 20th OTT and 15th APP.  He also keeps it in the fairway and is Top 10 ARG.  Keegan and Charley will be popular but are perfect for your cash lineups.

Emiliano Grillo (7700) – With an extra emphasis on ARG this week, Grillo does scare me a bit.  I still think the price is fair and I don’t mind dialing him up in GPPs.  An excellent ball striker who has improved a bit with the putter, he’s worth a shot.  He had an MC last year but has been inside the Top 25 3 of his last 5 efforts at The Memorial.

Kevin Streelman (7500) – Another guy who has some issues ARG, but has been lights out pretty much everywhere else.  He’s Top 20 in this field last 24 rounds OTT and APP and keeps it in the fairway.  He’s made his last 5 cuts here and that includes two Top 10 finishes.

Talor Gooch (7100) – Metrics don’t jump out at me necessarily as they are pretty average across the board overall.  However he’s 13th APP last 24 rounds and I think we may be finding him on an upward trajectory based on his 5 cuts out of his last 6 tournaments.

Aaron Wise (7000) – Rates out pretty high in my model (21st).  He’s been keeping it in the fairway and is in the top 40 OTT, APP and ARG.  If he’s even decent with the putter he will find his way past the cut and toward some DK scoring over the weekend.

Alex Noren (6800) – Finishing positions have been very good as of late and he does have a good enough all-around game to do well at The Memorial Tournament.  Noren feels like a boom or bust play so GPP only.

Kyle Stanley (6100) – Sometimes questionable with the short game but has been excellent lately and this is a clear misprice.  He’s made 4 cuts in a row and had an 8th place finish last week.  Also has a great track record here.  Not a lock button but you need to grab shares.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-9. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your Memorial Tournament lineups.

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This week the PGA Tour is back in Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge.  This Par 70 is 7200 yards which is relatively short, bringing shorter hitters very much in play.  I’ll be focusing on APP from all ranges, but particularly 175 and below, and I will also be focusing on driving accuracy.  Accurate drives should set up nicely for solid ball strikers who can hit the relatively small greens, thereby avoiding the need to lean on ARG game.  You’ll see that theme throughout my Charles Schwab Challenge picks below.  Join us tonight for the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream for more on all these picks and many more. And make sure you get into Discord on Wednesday for our final adjustments, ownership pivots and weather edges.

Collin Morikawa (10500) – After some time off Collin kicked it right back in gear with a Top 10 at the PGA Championship.  Morikawa is number 1 on APP over the last 24 rounds which is no surprise and he nearly won this thing last year with a 2nd place finish.  I’ll note that I also like Jordan Spieth and I have no issue with wanting to pay up for him.  If you’re looking for ownership leverage in this range, Patrick Reed and Daniel Berger are your guys.

Abraham Ancer (9700) – An elite ball striker who has made 8 cuts in a row while never finishing worse than 30th in that stretch.  Add to that three Top 10s in his last three tournaments and a 14th place finish last time on this course.  Number 1 in my model.  He will be garner a lot of ownership so know that going in.

Corey Conners (9400) – Another elite ball striker with a good track record on this course and good recent history.  His biggest downfall is ARG which shouldn’t be too big of a factor for an elite ball striker like Conners.  Another guy who is likely to have a lot of ownership.  If you’re looking for a low owned pivot in a big GPP, Jason Kokrak and Gary Woodland should be under 10%.

Charley Hoffman (8700) – You may sense a theme with the good ball strikers this week, and frankly, I think many others will gravitate to guys like Hoffman because of the value.  Hoffman has been a Top 20 machine (Top 20 finishes in 6 of his last 7 tournaments) and in this field I think he can deliver much more. 

Cameron Tringale (8100) – The strokes gained metrics took a considerable hit after a horrific Day 2 at the PGA Championship and I’m hopeful DFS’ers are weary of that and stay away from Tringale.  As for me, I think he’s a good course fit and I expect him to rebound nicely this week.  The game has been up and down lately so he’s more of a GPP play as opposed to cash.

Emiliano Grillo (7900) – Grillo is always a great ball striker who struggles with the short game, particularly the putter.  He’s best suited for shorter courses like this one where he doesn’t need to bomb it off the tee.  The APP game is in check as he was one of the best last week (gaining over 7 strokes on the field).  He actually gained a bit with the putter as well last week which is a great sign.

Chris Kirk (7600) – Kirk is not dominant in any one particular area, but he has a great all-around game, particularly when it comes to shorter courses.  There is definitely value here but if initial ownership projections are accurate, then I’m fine with pivoting off of him (I’m willing to eat some chalk, but Kirk will be one of my first pivots if he is highly owned.  Stay tuned for @SicilyKid ownership projection article on Wednesday evening).

Russell Knox (7300) – Russ has been pretty good as of late with three made cuts in a row.  His APP game has really been clicking and excels in the shorter APP proximities, which is what he will see for the most part this week.  The putting has been bad but he’s a veteran and I expect him to find his range.  His last three here have been MC, 8th and 20th.   He’ll be lower owned making him a very solid GPP play.

Matthew NeSmith (7300) – He’ll keep it in the fairway and will strike it well on APP.  As you might expect, the short game has some issues, but I’m happy to take my chances with NeSmith here.  He played The Charles Schwab Challenge for the first time in 2020 and finished 49th.  Another lower owned guy that will allow you to pick up some chalk in other spots.

Tom Hoge (6800) – A nice course fit as Hoge can keep it in the fairway and is great on APP (last 24 rounds he’s Top 10 in the field).  The big issue with Hoge is ARG and PUTT and it’ll need to be a leap of faith in terms of getting your lineup to the finish line, but this is a great course for Hoge so now is the time to consider rostering him.

Vincent Whaley (6200) – What if I told you that there is a guy priced at 6200 who has made 9 consecutive cuts (which rates as tied for the 4th longest cut streak on the PGA Tour).  What if that’s all that I told you, would you roster him?  I would.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-8. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final touches of your Charles Schwab lineups.

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PGA Championship: Initial Picks

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The year’s second major is upon us with the PGA Championship. This course is a 7876 Par 72 which is extremely long. Add to that the wind could be a big factor all week and you’re looking at tough scoring conditions. I’ll be focused on players with good long and short games and I will be keying in on OTT, APP (including from longer proximities, i.e. 175-200+) and ARG. More on course dynamics and SG metrics on our PGA Livestream and Podcast tomorrow at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the PGA Championship picks.

Rory Mcilroy (11500) – Tweaked his game a bit with the help of coach Steve Cowen and now looks to be in really good shape for a major takedown (pun obviously intended).  Even when Rory was allegedly playing poorly, he was pretty great OTT (rates out 6th over the last 50 rounds and is longest in driving distance in the field over last 24 rounds) and the rest of his game appears to be catching up.

Xander Schauffele (9600) – He checks all the boxes with a great all around game and has an excellent track record in majors. Xander isn’t as elite in any one metric relative to some of the other guys in this range, but he’s good at everything, and that’s what I’m looking for this week.

Viktor Hovland (9300) – Because of his anticipated popularity, I may end up liking Hovland more as a cash play rather than a tournament play, but we will need to wait and see projected ownership.  Hovland has had some bouts of bad play lately but overall he checks all the boxes other than some potential issues with ARG. 

Daniel Berger (8700) – I’ve never really been on team Berger, but I can’t deny how good he has been in terms of managing great finishes.  He’s been hovering around the Top 20 with finishes and with OTT and T2G metrics. He doesn’t hit the ball a long way like I’d prefer this week, but I’m willing to overlook that.  It’s not sexy, but it’s solid at this price.

Abraham Ancer (7900) – Ancer is another elite ball striker who has been piling up great finishes.  He’s Top 20 OTT over the last 50 rounds and rates out 2nd over the last 12 rounds.  The T2G game checks out too as he is Top 30 over last 50 rounds and 7th over the last 12 rounds.

Paul Casey (7700) – Not many flaws in the game for Paul Casey.  He doesn’t do anything particularly elite but he’s above average in pretty much everything.  He is as balanced as they come and I consider him a ‘safer’ play among the 7k range for the PGA Championship. 

Keegan Bradley (7300) – We get into some scary territory down in this range, but I’m happy to lean on Keegan as the ball striking checks out.  He has been a little shaky over the last 12 rounds OTT but over the last 50 rounds (and over his career as a whole) he’s been great OTT and APP.  The ARG game is good as well and it’ll just come down to the putter.

Charley Hoffman (7300) – He has been very good T2G and presents as a great value at this price.  Hits it long enough off the tee to be alright with the length of this course (305 yards last 24 rounds.  My preference is for the driving distance to be 300+ this week).

Si Woo Kim (7200) – A Pete Dye specialist who checks most of the boxes as he’s been great T2G (15th over last 50 rounds and 18th over last 12) and his ARG game is very good.  This feels like great value.

Jason Kokrak (7100) – I almost wrote up Matt Jones at this exact price, and I do like MJ, but I like Kokrak a bit better.  The ball striking has been great, but the ARG game can give him some issues.  Either way, I’ll take the upside with the ball striking and the good recent finishing positions.

Stewart Cink (6900) – The length of this course shouldn’t bother Cink (Top 10 OTT last 24 rounds) and I think he’ll be able to grind out a made cut with how well he’s been playing lately.  Beware of an ARG game that is less than stellar. 

Charl Schwartzel (6800) – I was all over him last week and it really paid off.  He’s been striking the ball very well and has the short game to check all the boxes.  Great value here.

Secret Weapon (under 7k/under 5% owned) – Current record is 35-7.  See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final touches of your PGA Championship lineups.

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AT&T Byron Nelson: Initial Picks

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The PGA Tour has one last stop before its next major and that stop is in Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson.  The 152 player field should be able to attack this golf course as there doesn’t appear to be much by way of trouble and/or hazards. This is the first time the AT&T Byron Nelson will be played at Craig Ranch (7500 yard Par 72), and therefore, you can ignore course history. You’ll want to focus on OTT and APP and PUTT. I rank APP just above OTT in this one with PUTT being a distant third place. More on the SG metrics and specific proximities on the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST.

Jordan Spieth (10700) – He’s one of many guys I like that is from the area and he’s the best player T2G in this field.  I like Bryson and Rahm in this range as well, but if I can only pick one golfer, it’s going to be Jordan. 

Will Zalatoris (9700) – Coming off a missed cut but that’s no reason to pivot.  Zalatoris grades out 1st on APP last 36 rounds and while his OTT game has been somewhat average, his overall ball striking is certainly elite.  Add to that he’s playing at home and is very familiar with this course. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick (9500) – An elite player that remains under the radar.  He’s 9th OTT last 36 rounds but 1st OTT last 12 rounds.  He grades out as the number one player in the 450-500 yard range.  His long irons sometimes give him issues so that could spell trouble on APP, but I expect the best putter in this field to make up for it on the greens.

Ryan Palmer (9100) – Palmer has been hot this year but has cooled off a bit as of late.  He lives 40 minutes north of this course and has played it at least “a couple dozen times” and holds the course record here (61).  He’s 11th in my model and I think he has the upside to compete here late Sunday afternoon.

Luke List (8400) – He’s 11th in the field T2G over last 12 rounds and 6th OTT in the last 36 rounds.  He gained across all categories last week at the Wells Fargo.  His putter can really get him in trouble and therefore I like him better as a GPP play as opposed to cash.

Charl Schwartzl (8100) – He’s been very good for a few tournaments in a row now.  He was 3rd in the field T2G last week and he’s within the Top 10 in this field T2G over the last 12 rounds.  This feels like a good value play in the low 8k range. 

Russell Knox (7700) – He was bad earlier this year but over the last 12 rounds he’s started to find his old form and that has resulted in being Top 15 T2G over the last 12 rounds.  He was 2nd in the field T2G at Wells Fargo, but lost a good amount PUTT.

Doug Ghim (7500) – This tournament could turn into a putting contest and that’s not exactly where Ghim would want to be, but his T2G game is elite and in a GPP he will give you great value if he’s even decent with the putter.

Jhonnatan Vegas (7200) – number 1 in the field OTT at Wells Fargo (gained over 7 strokes total OTT).  He lost most of his strokes ARG which shouldn’t hurt him too badly at the AT&T Byron Nelson.  He’s 4th OTT last 36 rounds.

Roger Sloan (6900) – The 6k range is tough this week and there aren’t a lot of great options.  Sloan is someone I’m willing to the roll the dice with because he’s been solid with the ball striking lately.  He’s typically giving up a lot of strokes ARG but if his APP is on point (which it usually is), he shouldn’t need to worry too much about that.  He’ll need to find the putter.

Chris Baker (6000) – Baker doesn’t have a lot of rounds under his belt, but his ball striking has been good enough in limited work for me to include him in this article.  He’s obviously a GPP dart at this minimum price, but if you are trying to stack elite players you may be able to find some value in the abyss. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord. Current SW record is 34-7.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com.

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The PGA Tour is in North Carolina this week for the Wells Fargo Championship.  Players will need to bring the big stick as OTT game takes a major role in a successful week here.  I’ll be focused on OTT and APP and I’ll have a particular focus on proximities of 175 through 200+ as those are back in play just like last week.  While the second shot proximities remain similar to last week, the big difference at Wells Fargo is the sheer length of the course and what will be required off the tee.  Don’t completely rule out shorter hitters, but certainly give the edge or the tiebreaker to a guy that can hit it long.  Make sure you listen to tonight’s Win Daily Sports PGA show as we will bring you much more perspective on the course dynamics and each player in this field.  Now let’s get to the Wells Fargo picks.

Bryson DeChambeau (11000) – I really think Justin Thomas should be included in this article but I only want to make room for two in this elite range, so I’m going to go with Bryson and Rahm (see below).  This course gives a big advantage to OTT game and Bryson is the Captain of Team OTT.  Rest of his game hasn’t been too bad either and I think this is an excellent course fit.

Jon Rahm (10800) – Speaking of elite OTT game, Rahm hasn’t lost strokes OTT in a very long time.  He rates out 2nd OTT in this Calendar year (behind only Bryson and his APP game has been stellar as well, particularly on shots of 175-200+.  He rates out number 1 in my model.  Again, honorable mention in this range goes to JT and I should also add Webb Simpson.

Corey Conners (9200) – If you’re looking for a great ball striker who has been particularly good OTT, then look no further than the 5th ranked golfer in my model.  Only thing holding this guy back right now is the short game, but that shouldn’t hurt him too badly here.  Give me the ball striker.

Joaquin Niemann (9100) – The only issue with Niemann is he rarely puts all facets of his game together but he’s clearly an elite player just waiting for his moment.  This guy has a small frame but absolutely crushes the ball OTT.  His history at the Wells Fargo is limited and not particularly great, but I’m willing to take a chance on a good course fit and a rising star.

Bubba Watson (8300) – I’m not a Bubba guy, but he has been pretty great lately and I think this DK price is very fair.  Watson has been finishing strong lately and making cuts at the rate of vintage Bubba Watson.  His long iron and putting game has been shaky as of the last 36 rounds, but I’m willing to take a chance on Bubba, but only in GPP’s.

Emiliano Grillo (8100) – a great price for a great ball striker who has been surprisingly great OTT.  Grillo is both a GPP and cash game play as his ball striking and history at this course speak to a golfer that should probably be closer to 8500 rather than 8100.  As usual, he will need to find the putter.

Stewart Cink (7900) – Already a two time winner this year, Cink is in the midst of a great stretch of golf.  That great stretch included a takedown at the RBC and a 12th at the Masters.  Most people may think he’s not the best course fit here due to a presumed lack of length of the tee.  Cink is inside the Top 20 in driving distance over the last 36 rounds, and for the sake of context, he has been driving it longer than Jon Rahm.  The floor is low for Cink but the ceiling is quite high.

Matt Jones (7500) – As you build your lineups, you’ll find yourself in this exact price range quite often and my favorite guy in this particular range is Matt Jones.  He’s a good course fit as he has made 3 out of his last 4 cuts here and his recent history is pretty good as well, and that includes a 1st place at the Honda.

Kyle Stanley (7100) – We’re getting into the danger zone in this price range, but I’ll go ahead and lean on last week’s Secret Weapon (34-6, but who’s counting) as this course will demand a lot of the same from last week from an APP standpoint.  While he doesn’t appear to be a good course fit, his last two efforts at Wells Fargo resulted in an 8th and 13th place finish.

Adam Schenk (6800) – A simple case of riding the hot hand as he has finished within the Top 25 over the last three tournaments (for the sake of fairness, one of those tournaments was the Zurich Classic match play).  Either way, Schenk has been striking it well lately and finished 13th here the last time this tournament was played in 2019.

Luke List (6800) – Some clear deficiencies in List’s game, particularly with the putter and certain APP metrics (175-200), but the OTT game is there as he ranks 12th OTT over the last 36 rounds in this field.  In 2019 he made the cut but finished 65th and in 2018 he finished 9th.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord. Current SW record is 34-6.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com.

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The PGA Tour is back in Florida for one last time in 2021 and the field will be given a true test at the Valspar Championship. The Valspar is a tough course that will hurt you if you’re not in the fairway and will test all parts of your game. This week I’m focusing on APP, Driving Accuracy and ARG more than the the other metrics. As for APP, I’m taking a hard look at proximities between 175-200 and 200+ as a lot of shots will come from that range. Tune into our Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on all the golfers in this field.

Dustin Johnson (11200) – I don’t love the elite range this week, but I do like the fact that DJ will likely float under the radar at the Valspar Championship as he has been unimpressive over the last couple of months.  In spite of his recent struggles, over the last 36 rounds he still rates out 5th in my model.

Corey Conners (9600) – Will fit nicely into your cash games, but likely to garner some high ownership so be mindful of that in your GPP’s.  Conners has been striking the ball better than everyone on tour and the short game is really coming around.  He rates out very high in my model as expected.

Tyrrell Hatton (9400) – Hatton is starting to come around but he has been plagued by inconsistency.  With that said, he’s inside the Top 10 in my model and is excellent in the notable proximity ranges (long iron play).  He is a big risk ARG and that could hurt him here, unless he’s striping those irons like he has been.  I’m willing to take the leap in GPP’s.

Russell Henley (9000) – I’m looking for guys who keep it in the fairway, are great on APP and are good on APP from long distances.  Henley checks all the boxes and rates out very high on my model.  A good price here and a solid cash and GPP play.

Justin Rose (8800) – I’m a bit surprised I’m writing Rose up as I haven’t rostered him in years.  It’s pretty clear the game is coming around and he’s gained strokes in a significant manner in three tournaments in a row.  There’s no reason to believe his game won’t translate well to the tough test at the Valspar Championship so I’m happy to roster him this week in GPP’s, but I’ll stay away in cash games.

Cameron Tringale (8400) – Certainly seems like a low price for Tringale considering that his ball striking has been great all year.  Part of the reason for this low price is his terrible history at this tournament (missed all three cuts the last three times he’s played here), but I’m willing to overlook that and hope the ball striking stays in good order.

Denny McCarthy (7500) – I think Denny is a solid GPP play this week as you may be catching him early while his ball striking game begins to rise.  The putter has always been his strong suit but the ball striking has made a bit of a comeback after a terrible stretch a few months back.  He finished 9th here last year and recent form has been great.

Lucas Glover (7400) – He will need to find a hot putter to contend on Sunday, but outside of his struggles with the flat stick, he has been good.  His APP stats this year are good, but not great, but he looks like a player on the rise so I’ll ride the wave.

Rory Sabbatini (7100) – His stats don’t necessarily provide a beautiful picture, but he’s a smart and plotting player that should fit well on this course.  If history is any indication, you are getting value with Rory here as he’s finished 18th and 5th in his last two efforts at the Valspar Championship.

Kyle Stanley (6800) – Rates out 30th in my model and checks most of the boxes, particularly on APP.  The big issue with Stanley will always be the putter.  To be clear, he’s a horrible putter, but he is actually on his best putting surface at the Valspar Championship (Bermuda) so if there were a time to take a chance on putter regression with Stanley, it’s here.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

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The Florida swing continues with the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass.  This is a 7200 Par 72 which will test your APP more than any other metric.  I’m looking for APP first and then OTT and PUTT.  Tune into our PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST for more on the entire field and stay tuned for more articles and picks from the entire Win Daily team.  For now, let’s get to The Players Championship: Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10900) – I really like skipping this elite range all together but I’ll have a few shares of each here and there.  My favorite play is Rahm of the Big Four because his ball striking is simply great and if he can get the putter going, he could definitely win.  I also like the fact that he’s likely to be less owned than both DJ and Rory so it’s a nice way to pick up a little bit of ownership leverage right off the bat.

Webb Simpson (9500) – A great course fit who played well enough, after a long break, to finish 6th at the WGC-Workday.  Last three years here he’s finished 16th, 1st and 16th.  A very acceptable price for a high floor/high upside golfer.

Collin Morikawa (9400) – Hasn’t played here but certainly has the skill set to take this tournament down for back to back wins.  Morikawa is a star and has too much potential to ignore in this one. He finished in a tie for 7th after Round 1 of The Players last year (before it got cancelled).

Viktor Hovland (9300) – It’s possible that his unimpressive weekend will keep ownership relatively low, especially when you consider all the studs in this range.  I don’t think we need to read too much into his poor Saturday and Sunday at the API.  Hovland also finished in a tie for 7th after last year’s Round 1 of the Players.

Tony Finau (9100) – I tend to ignore Tony, but it’s getting harder and harder to ignore the ball striking and the short game.  Put simply, he rates out really well in every SG category and that makes him a great value at this price.  His track record here isn’t great but he did finish 22nd here in 2019.

Tommy Fleetwood (7900) – We will talk about the 8k range on the Win Daily PGA Livestream but I’m not a huge fan of it and I’m not going to force a pick there for purposes of this Initial Picks article.  I do think Fleetwood could easily be priced in the low 8k range.  I was impressed with what he did at API and if the irons are back to being consistent, this will be a great pick.  Last two finishes here were 5th and 7th.

Will Zalatoris (7600) – The last couple of tournaments have appered underwhelming, but the young gun continues to play well and managed to finish 10th at the API.  More importantly, he continues to pick up strokes everywhere but with the putter.  If we get the same ball striking and an average putter, WillyZ pays off his price tag easily.

Abraham Ancer (7500) – A good price for a golfer who may have recaptured some form and has proven he can hang around the top of the leaderboard on weekends.  A good ball striker who finished 12th here in 2019.

Ryan Palmer (7300) – I have to admit, this one feels a bit scary but the common trend in DFS is to underprice Palmer and I’m always looking for value.  He is generally very inconsistent and his track record at The Players establishes that with rotating MCs, but I’ll take the chance here.

Cameron Tringale (7200) – He wilted for most of the tournament at the API, but he’s a consistent golfer who is great on APP and that’s what you are going to need here. 

Emiliano Grillo (6700) – Has made three cuts in a row here and his ball striking is typically pristine.  With that said, he hadn’t been as good on APP until until the API.  If the APP and OTT game are in sync this weekend then he will make the cut and score some points over the weekend.

Richy Werenski (6400) – Closed the API in impressive fashion and ended up with a 4th place finish. He’s made 5 cuts in a row and he’s doing it with the long and short game.  He has played here twice and finished 47th and 23rd.  At this price range you’re not going to find better value.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord.

See everyone tonight on the Livestream. Don’t forget to subscribe to our Win Daily Sports YouTube page and Apple podcasts. And make sure you check out the Bettor Golf Podcast which will drop Wednesday morning.

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The PGA Tour travels to the opposite coast this week for the first of four Florida events.  We have an interesting twist as this is the first time the Concession course will be played on the PGA Tour, and therefore, we have no course history to utilize (other than a few in this field who played this course in the NCAA championship 6 years ago).  We will focus on the typical SG metrics and recent form and we will perhaps take a few more chances than normal at this no-cut event.  Stay tuned for much more content from the Win Daily team, including our Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST.  Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the WGC-Workday Championship.

Jon Rahm (11100) – He was excellent last week and really made a charge on Sunday but wasn’t enough to catch the leaders.  One of the best in the world T2G and in good form.

Xander Shaufffele (10800) – I’m hoping ownership is down on Xander as a result of his underwhelming finish at Riviera and associated lack of coverage.  His 15th place finish was mostly a result of being bad OTT on Thursday and bad with the putter on Sunday.  Other than that, the ball striking and game was great and Xander is very close to winning a tournament.

Bryson DeChambeau (9900) – Bryson had some rust on Thursday at Riviera, but he rounded into form on Friday.  He was atrocious with the putter on Friday losing almost 3 strokes, but he was best in the field T2G that very same day.  I see the putter regressing to the mean and I’m hoping the T2G stays true.

Tyrrell Hatton (9600) – He’s simply a great golfer.  We haven’t seen him on the PGA Tour this year, but he’s been racking up solid finishes overseas (6th at The Saudi International, 22nd at Omega Dubai Desert Classic and 1st at Abu Dhabi).  Great with the irons and the all-around game is there.

Viktor Hovland (9400) – Don’t be shocked if this guy is considered one of the best in the world at some point within the next couple of years.  His ball striking is impeccable and his short game continues to improve and this is great value at this price.

Joaquin Niemann (8100) – We are looking for upside, particularly in no-cut events, and Niemann flashed that upside for the first two rounds at Riviera and has also flashed it this year with 2nd place finishes at the Sony and the Sentry.  Don’t worry about his blow up round of a 78 last Saturday as that’s going to happen in brutal wind conditions to the best of golfers.

Will Zalatoris (8000) – This is a very good price for a great ball striker who has been consistently finishing well in stacked fields.  This week he doesn’t need to worry about lack of course history/experience because almost nobody in this field has played here.

Ryan Palmer (7200) – Another misprice for Mr. Palmer that you probably need to take advantage of.  Palmer’s betting odds are 55 to 1, which is shorter than almost everyone in the 8k range.  What does that mean?  It means the sportsbooks value him as a golfer in the upper 8k class.  Grab the value.

Abraham Ancer (6800) – Missed cut last week but keep in mind he had zero prep time as he was stuck in Texas.  Ancer’s recent form is pretty solid with the exception of a bad round here or there.  The one bad round won’t hurt him too much in this no-cut event and he has enough upside to justify at this price.

Rasmus Hojgaard (6700) – Probably will be a nice pivot off of some of the other more popular European golfers in this range.  Hojgaard has been very solid lately with 6th, 9th and 25th place finish in his last three tournaments overseas.  He’s also flashed the ability to go low (final round of Saudi International he shot a 62).

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – stay tuned to Discord.

See everyone tonight on the Livestream and don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Apple podcasts and Spotify and to our YouTube page. 

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We remain in California for the Genesis Invitational at Riviera.  This course presents the best field we’ve seen so far in 2020 and presents the most difficult test we’ve seen as well.  You will want to focus on golfers that have a good all-around game as ARG and PUTT definitely come into play a bit more than usual.  This is a relatively long track so being long off the tee helps, but is not critical to success.  More on the course and the field on tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream.  See you tonight at 8:00 EST. As usual, we have a ton of content coming from the rest of the team. Let’s get started with The Genesis Invitational: Initial Picks.

Dustin Johnson (11300) – He’s the best in the world.  His ball striking and short game are excellent.  His price point isn’t cost prohibitive.  Not sure we need much additional analysis on this one.  If I had to pick a guy I like next best in the elite range, it’s likely Bryson.

Xander Schauffele (9900) – Much like Cantlay (below) this guy checks all the boxes and picks up strokes in every SG category.  Even better he’s coming dangerously close to being one of the best golfers in the world with near wins (2nd, 2nd and 5th over his last three tournaments).  Solid value at this price.

Patrick Cantlay (9600) – Gains strokes in every category in a pretty significant way and has been very good lately with a 3rd, 2nd and 13th over his last three.  He has a great track record as you might expect. 

Viktor Hovland (8700) – No history here but his recent history is excellent and the ball striking metrics jump off the page.  Add to that he has significantly improved the short game and Hovland carries a ton of value.

Max Homa (8200) – A very fair price for a guy who has turned his game around and made 5 cuts in a row, which culminated in a gritty 7th place finish last week at the AT&T.  Add to that a 5th place finish last year and 37th the year prior and you likely have a safe floor with plenty of upside.

Cameron Davis (7500) – Gains strokes in every category and he’s long off the tee.  He’s only played here once (2019) and it was a missed cut.  But he finished 14th last week after having a bad Day 1 and made three cuts prior to that.  Plenty of upside at this price. 

James Hahn (7500) – A Cali guy who appears to feel right at home at this venue with a 13th, 14th and 28th place finish in his last three efforts here.  I’d call Hahn a high risk/high reward play as he is coming off an MC, 10th and MC in his last three (we, of course, had him as the SW during the 10th place finish).  With that said, he is striking the ball well and is gaining strokes in all categories. 

Luke List (7300) – A long hitter who has been pretty great with the ball striking lately.  He’s finished within the top 30 over his last three tournaments.  Interestingly, he’s also finished within the top 30 over his last three efforts on this track. 

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (7100) – Brought to my attention on Monday’s The First Cut Podcast with Rick Gehman and Greg Ducharme (and yours truly).  KH Lee has made 4 out of 5 cuts including a 2nd place finish at the Waste Management.  Further, he finished 13th and 25th his only two times on this track.

Matthew NeSmith (6900) – His APP game has been too good to ignore.  He’s not the best course fit but if the APP numbers stay true (gained 1.88 strokes on APP per round at the AT&T), then he hits value easily.

Michael Thompson (6700) – Nothing flashy about this guy, but I’ve been on him for a while now and he continues to make cuts (4 out of his last 5).  He also finished 7th here in 2019. 

Brian Stuard (6400) – No such thing as a “safe option” in this range, but if you need to dip down this low you may as well take a guy that has made 4 of his last 5 cuts and made two cuts in a row at Riviera, including a Top 25.  Stuard is gaining strokes in every category other than OTT so he’s a bargain. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/under 5% owned) – Currently 29-3 and featured Cameron Percy and James Hahn the last two weeks.  Get into Discord Wednesday night for the Secret Weapon.

Don’t forget to join us tonight on the Win Daily YouTube channel or @windailysports on Twitter.  Feel free to jump in the chat and ask any questions or submit any lineups that you want our live commentary on.  See you tonight.

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The PGA Tour is headed back to Cali for the AT&T Pebble Beach No-Am and we have another two course rotation this week between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill (three of the four rounds will be on Pebble Beach).  These two courses are relatively short but there is some benefit in being a long hitter on the gettable Par 5’s.  With that said, all types of golfers have won this event and all are in play.  My focus will be the usual APP and then OTT, but I’ll have a slightly bigger emphasis than normal on ARG as these POA greens are small and we may have some wind issues to deal with.  Join us for the Win Daily PGA Livestream for more on the picks below and many more picks from me and @draftmasterflex.  Let’s get to the AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks.

Patrick Cantlay (11300) – The ball striking metrics jump off the page relative to the field now that Dustin Johnson has withdrawn.  I think Cantlay has the most win equity in this tournament and he is properly priced.  He is also playing in his home state which should help. 

Paul Casey (10400) – He won on the Euro Tour just two weeks ago and finished tied for 8th at The AmEx.  Ball striking is classically good with Casey and it’s always the short game that trips him up.  That could happen again, but recent history and course history give me the impression he will be very comfortable this weekend.

Francesco Molinari (9300) – Speaking of tied for 8th at the AmEx, Paul Casey was tied with none other than the resurgent Molinari.  He has sported two top 10 finishes in his last two events and seems to have found the game that he completely lost last year.  I won’t be overweight on Francesco but he’s a good course fit and is playing very well.

Kevin Streelman (8900) – He seems overpriced, even in this field, but his course history here is nothing short of spectacular.  In his last 5 tournaments at Pebble he has finished 2nd, 7th, 6th, 14th and 17th.  Add to that his recent form has been very good.

Henrik Norlander (8700) – Has fared pretty well here in the past, but more importantly, is quickly becoming a very good golfer.  In his last three tournaments he has finished 22nd, 2nd and 12th and he’s been great OTT and on APP.  The short game has been average, but he more than makes up for it with the ball striking.

Cameron Tringale (8500) – course history here is below average but recent history is very good and feels like a very good fit with his APP game.  He’ll lose a little OTT but I think Tringale will be good everywhere else.  Last week in Discord, a subscriber stated that Tringale’s price was “disrespectful” and that turned out to be true.  Hoping to have him churn out another good score this week.

Matt Jones (8100) – Jones consistently makes cuts and finished 5th here last year.  His ball striking numbers could be better, but in my estimation he’s a very under the radar guy with upside.

Peter Malnati (7800) – In this tournament the 7k range becomes pretty risky, but you’re going to have to take some big swings and there’s no bigger swing than Peter Malnati who can really be erratic with his ball striking.  He can get hot in an instant and that is evidenced in his rencent history and his course history.  Plenty of upside here.

Harold Varner III (7700) – HV3 simply hasn’t been good for quite some time, but I think we saw something last week with his 13th place finish in terms of putting a full four rounds together.  If you look at the quality of this field, if HV3 can even be close to what he was last week, then he pays off his pricetag and then some. 

Scott Stallings (7500) – I’m not going to be overweight on Stallings as there are plenty of guys that I want to take shots on in the 7k range (more on that during the Livestream/Podcast), but I am a fan of Stallings in general as his ball striking and short game are both solid.  He has a missed cut here in 2020 but prior to that he had a 3rd, 7th and 14th place finish.   

Michael Thompson (7200) – He and Kirk really let me down last week but I’ll probably go back to both in some lineups.  Thompson will lose strokes OTT but should gain in other areas.  His course history includes a 10th place finish in 2019 but also three missed cuts surrounding that.  A hunch play for me as I liked the form he exhibited prior to last week’s missed cut.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – I purposely did not include any 6k golfers in this Initial Picks article because I think this range is very bad this week.  I would avoid this range entirely if you can, other than the Secret Weapon of course, which will be in Discord Wednesday night.  You can also tune into tonight’s Livestream for more on 6k golfers to consider.

Thanks for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach: Initial Picks! Make sure to check back with Win Daily Sports all week for more content. See everyone tonight at 8:00 EST for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael, Joel and myself. 

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