Charles Schwab Challenge: Initial Picks

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This week the PGA Tour is back in Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge.  This Par 70 is 7200 yards which is relatively short, bringing shorter hitters very much in play.  I’ll be focusing on APP from all ranges, but particularly 175 and below, and I will also be focusing on driving accuracy.  Accurate drives should set up nicely for solid ball strikers who can hit the relatively small greens, thereby avoiding the need to lean on ARG game.  You’ll see that theme throughout my Charles Schwab Challenge picks below.  Join us tonight for the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream for more on all these picks and many more. And make sure you get into Discord on Wednesday for our final adjustments, ownership pivots and weather edges.

Collin Morikawa (10500) – After some time off Collin kicked it right back in gear with a Top 10 at the PGA Championship.  Morikawa is number 1 on APP over the last 24 rounds which is no surprise and he nearly won this thing last year with a 2^nd place finish.  I’ll note that I also like Jordan Spieth and I have no issue with wanting to pay up for him.  If you’re looking for ownership leverage in this range, Patrick Reed and Daniel Berger are your guys.

Abraham Ancer (9700) – An elite ball striker who has made 8 cuts in a row while never finishing worse than 30^th in that stretch.  Add to that three Top 10s in his last three tournaments and a 14^th place finish last time on this course.  Number 1 in my model.  He will be garner a lot of ownership so know that going in.

Corey Conners (9400) – Another elite ball striker with a good track record on this course and good recent history.  His biggest downfall is ARG which shouldn’t be too big of a factor for an elite ball striker like Conners.  Another guy who is likely to have a lot of ownership.  If you’re looking for a low owned pivot in a big GPP, Jason Kokrak and Gary Woodland should be under 10%.

Charley Hoffman (8700) – You may sense a theme with the good ball strikers this week, and frankly, I think many others will gravitate to guys like Hoffman because of the value.  Hoffman has been a Top 20 machine (Top 20 finishes in 6 of his last 7 tournaments) and in this field I think he can deliver much more. 

Cameron Tringale (8100) – The strokes gained metrics took a considerable hit after a horrific Day 2 at the PGA Championship and I’m hopeful DFS’ers are weary of that and stay away from Tringale.  As for me, I think he’s a good course fit and I expect him to rebound nicely this week.  The game has been up and down lately so he’s more of a GPP play as opposed to cash.

Emiliano Grillo (7900) – Grillo is always a great ball striker who struggles with the short game, particularly the putter.  He’s best suited for shorter courses like this one where he doesn’t need to bomb it off the tee.  The APP game is in check as he was one of the best last week (gaining over 7 strokes on the field).  He actually gained a bit with the putter as well last week which is a great sign.

Chris Kirk (7600) – Kirk is not dominant in any one particular area, but he has a great all-around game, particularly when it comes to shorter courses.  There is definitely value here but if initial ownership projections are accurate, then I’m fine with pivoting off of him (I’m willing to eat some chalk, but Kirk will be one of my first pivots if he is highly owned.  Stay tuned for @SicilyKid ownership projection article on Wednesday evening).

Russell Knox (7300) – Russ has been pretty good as of late with three made cuts in a row.  His APP game has really been clicking and excels in the shorter APP proximities, which is what he will see for the most part this week.  The putting has been bad but he’s a veteran and I expect him to find his range.  His last three here have been MC, 8^th and 20^th.   He’ll be lower owned making him a very solid GPP play.

Matthew NeSmith (7300) – He’ll keep it in the fairway and will strike it well on APP.  As you might expect, the short game has some issues, but I’m happy to take my chances with NeSmith here.  He played The Charles Schwab Challenge for the first time in 2020 and finished 49^th.  Another lower owned guy that will allow you to pick up some chalk in other spots.

Tom Hoge (6800) – A nice course fit as Hoge can keep it in the fairway and is great on APP (last 24 rounds he’s Top 10 in the field).  The big issue with Hoge is ARG and PUTT and it’ll need to be a leap of faith in terms of getting your lineup to the finish line, but this is a great course for Hoge so now is the time to consider rostering him.

Vincent Whaley (6200) – What if I told you that there is a guy priced at 6200 who has made 9 consecutive cuts (which rates as tied for the 4^th longest cut streak on the PGA Tour).  What if that’s all that I told you, would you roster him?  I would.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-8. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final touches of your Charles Schwab lineups.