The final major of the season is upon us and it will be at a course steeped in tradition at St. Andrews. The Open hasn’t been played here since 2015 so there isn’t much by way of recent course history, but we will have plenty to offer all week from the team to make sure you’re zeroed in on the right players. That includes our PGA Draftcast Tuesday night for opinions on all the golfers and @TeeOffSports famous course breakdown. As for me, I’ll be zeroed in on APP and PUTT with a particular emphasis on lag putting and wedge game. Be sure to be in our Discord leading up to the event for chats with all the experts and for all weather information. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks:
Jordan Spieth (10000) – Really hasn’t slowed down since his win at the RBC Heritage in March. Has great Open Championship experience and is coming off a T10 finish last week at the Scottish, but was in position to win on Sunday. Has the skill set and intelligence to navigate this course to a win.
Cameron Smith (9500) – Not a guy who typically sits atop models, but always manages to get the ball in the hole better than most. He put together a nice weekend at The Scottish to finish T10 although a lot of that was PUTT reliant. His periodic wayward OTT game shouldn’t penalize him too much, and even if it does, he makes up for it with APP and short game (which includes elite wedge game and lag putting along with Jordan Spieth).
Patrick Cantlay (9400) – Was hard to determine if the Sunday meltdown at The Travelers would seep into the next few tournaments, but it looks like its a distant memory for the robotic Patrick Cantlay. He finished 4th at the Scottish Open and gained across all metrics, with a particularly splendid APP and short game play (along with being a great lag putter). That’s the mix I want to see this week at The Open Championship.
Shane Lowry (9300) – The APP play and PUTT haven’t been quite as elite as we’re accustomed to with Lowry, but this feels like a good setup for him to bounce back across those metrics that he’s typically elite in. I like him potentially getting overlooked for once.
Louis Oosthuizen (8800) – Nothing to show for on the PGA Tour this year, but the form appears to be right as he has finished inside the Top 10 in his two LIV Tour events and in the BMW International Open. Certainly has the game to succeed here just like he did in 2015 and 2010.
Tony Finau (8400) – For some reason it always feels risky to trot out Finau, but the metrics tell a different story. He has been elite on APP and ARG and the PUTT seems to have turned a corner from a bad stretch earlier in the year. OTT isn’t bad either and all of this spells pretty great value for Tony. Likely a chalky option at this price.
Joaquin Niemann (8000) – Short game can be a pretty big problem for Niemann, but I’m willing to take a chance on him because I think the upside is elite. Outside of a terrible tournament at The Travelers, he’s been managing solid finishing positions all season.
Max Homa (7900) – Max gets it done across every metric and made a charge toward the lead Sunday afternoon at the Scottish. A great price but likely one of the chalkier plays on the slate as the price tag is at least 600 short.
Seamus Power (7400) – He’s been excellent with the BS over his last four tournaments and has shown the ability to pop with the short game. Very good value at this price.
Patrick Reed (7300) – He’s made 8 of 9 PGA Tour cuts dating back to The Players. The finishing positions haven’t been great and the metrics don’t tell a great story either, but I think Reed’s got the game to compete at The Open.
Talor Gooch (7300) – Two Top 10s in his two LIV events juxtaposed with an MC at The U.S. Open. But Gooch has been pretty good all year, and that includes a 20th at The PGA Championship and a 14th at The Masters. Decent contrarian play here.
Ryan Fox (7100) – Last week’s 8500 becomes this week’s 7100 and it now feels like you’re getting Fox at a bargain price. He fought hard to make the cut last week and continues to make cuts. Plenty of upside here at this price.
Sahith Theegala (7100) – He’s really starting to put the entire game together as the BS and the short game have been really good in 3 of his last 4 tournaments. This is an up and coming star that doesn’t appear to be intimidated by the moment. I also like Woodland, Tringale and Wise in this range.
Chris Kirk (6800) – Kirk should be in the 7k range given his recent form. He’s been solid on APP and he can certainly get hot with the short game. He also happens to rate out very well with the wedges and lag putting.
Joohyung Kim (6500) – He’s a got a win and six Top 5 finishes on the Asian Tour and it appears that prowess has translated nicely onto the PGA Tour with a Top 20 at The Byron Nelson, 23rd at The U.S. Open and 3rd at The Scottish Open.
Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 55-22.
Be sure to get in our Discord and watch our PGA Draftcast. And finally, now is as good a time as ever to sign up for all things Win Daily as we are bringing you all the DFS and betting for all the sports you can imagine. Further, make sure you check out Sharp as the bets continue to roll through.
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