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PGA DFS Picks

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Sanderson Farms Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome to the initial installment of ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Country Club of Jackson

7,461 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Bermuda

The Country Club of Jackson is a unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel, the layout pays homage to Donald Ross by mimicking his typical quirks throughout the property. That means undulating greens will play a heavy factor at the facility, and it will require golfers to miss shots to the correct part of the fairways and greens to find success. The ability to work the ball both ways should be seen as a benefit, and while the rough should be considered non-existent, the undulation and set up of the course will still require misses to come to the correct side if players want a legitimate chance to score on most holes.

Unfortunately, that is about where our help stops from trying to handicap this statistically. I want to preface my breakdown by saying this course has been difficult for me to figure out in the past because the numerical data doesn’t seem to equal what is being shown on paper. Strokes gained putting and proximity from 100-150 yards continue to jump out like a sore thumb, but I’ve noticed the golfers winning the tournaments every year are some of the worst in those categories during that season.

To highlight that viewpoint a little more, let’s take a deeper look into the past three champions since 2018. As I mentioned, putting has been very impactful in deciding the winner, but Sergio Garcia, Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ all graded outside of the top-100 in putting last year. Conversely, and maybe even more alarming, the two most significant differentials when looking at approach shot distribution here versus tour average have come from 100-125 yards and 125-150 yards. When we break down each golfers’ finish during the year they won the event, the picture gets murky fast. Garcia finished last year 92nd from 100-125 and 144th from 125-150, Munoz was a more respectable 61st and 29th in 2019 and Champ was awful in 2018, ranking 187th and 173rd.

Look, I am the king of telling people not to overreact to limited sample sizes because they often are aberrational results beyond anything else, but the lack of historical production from those two ranges from the winners piqued my curiosity. Yes, the plurality of approaches are coming from 100-150 yards, but what if the most important shots are coming elsewhere? I decided to dive into that a little deeper, and I think I figured out a potential answer.

The last five winners have combined to shoot 97-under par during their wins. That highlights a birdie fest, but it doesn’t tell you where the scoring is coming. It isn’t going to blow anyone’s mind when I say the four par-fives are most impactful to find success, but what if I told you it is so much so that it accounts for 47.5% of the winning output? That’s substantial, right? Well, what if I also told you that another 11.5% is coming from the 15th hole – a hole that plays as a short par-four and is drivable off the tee. That would certainly raise some eyebrows that 59% of the scoring is coming during a five-hole stretch, especially when projections would suggest that the average golfer is only birding them 33.68% of the time, giving us a massive disparity between the winners and those that barely make the cut.

So with that thought in mind, I built a model to highlight those five must-have holes and came up with the following:

Proximity From 200+ Yards (20%) – This will lead me to my next category, but the real scoring chances seem to be coming for those who can control their long irons.
Par-Five Birdie or Better (25%) – As I mentioned, 47.5% of the winning scores are coming here.
Short Par-Four Efficiency (7.5%) – That takes the par-four 15th and even a little of the par-four first. I didn’t include that first hole into any of my metrics, but the ability to play shorter par-fours well will be critical.
Total Driving (17.5%) – That is an 80/20 split of distance over accuracy.
Overall Birdie or Better (10%) – I want birdie-makers that can get hot.
Strokes Gained Total Donald Ross (10%) – These types of courses are always similar.
GIR (10%) – You need to hit greens in regulation if you want to provide yourself a chance to make birdie.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Will Zalatoris ($10,800) – Pricing looks very solid at the top of the board. I think you could nitpick some of these golfers being a spot higher or lower when it comes to their price tag, but the top four players of Sam Burns ($11,000), Will Zalatoris ($10,800), Sergio Garcia ($10,500) and Sungjae Im ($10,300) are the same top four I have in my model (just a marginally different order). When pricing is spot-on like that, it can be challenging to find an edge, but I like Zalatoris because I think he provides the most complete package for all contests. The American becomes the number one golfer in my model when I remove the Ross attachment from the weight – a stat that is slightly skewy as it is.

Sungjae Im ($10,300) – Sungjae Im is a Bermuda specialist that will get a boost in ownership because of that, but it is worth noting that he has averaged 2.4 shots gained per event with his irons over his last nine starts. Im ranks inside the top-25 of my model in proximity from 200+ yards, par-five birdie or better, overall birdie or better, short par-four efficiency and strokes gained total on Donald Ross tracks, making him another target that is playable in all builds.

Potential MME Pivot – Sergio Garcia ($10,500)

$9,000 Range

Cameron Davis ($9,100) – My favorite play in this section is Cameron Davis at $9,100. Sixth here last year, which isn’t the be-all, end-all for a course that doesn’t have great rollover effect, but his distance and birdie-making prowess shows why he did find success here in 2019 and 2020. Davis is currently under 10 percent owned and is the second-largest differential in my model when comparing my rank versus his ownership projection of a golfer priced $9,000 or above. Only Sergio Garcia has a more significant difference.

Additional Thoughts: Keegan Bradley ($9,700), Cameron Tringale ($9,400), Harold Varner III ($9,200) and Charley Hoffman ($9,000) all feel playable in cash. Mito Periera ($9,900) is the number one player in my upside model, but I think his ownership projection makes him more of a single-entry target than that of an MME-style build.

$8,000 Range

Carlos Ortiz ($8,600) – I keep waiting for Carlos Ortiz’s game to flash again, but two top-fives here since 2018 is a pretty good indicator that he likes this venue. Ortiz has gained strokes with his irons in seven of his previous nine starts and off the tee in his past five. The fact that he has made 10 of the past 12 cuts only adds to the luster, and it feels like a big result might be just around the corner.

Matthew Wolff ($8,500) – Consider Matthew Wolff a GPP-only play, but the potential is there for him to take down an MME for you at roughly 10 percent ownership. His floor might be that of a golfer that comes into the week having missed back-to-back cuts, but his upside is that of a $10,000 golfer. Expect that volatility with what you might receive, but I find the risk to be worth the reward.

Cash Play: Seamus Power ($8,800)

$7,000 Range

Keith Mitchell ($7,800) – If distance and off the tee play is going to matter at the Sanderson Farms, why not Keith Mitchell? Like Sungjae Im, Mitchell is a Bermuda specialist that tends to pop out of nowhere, but he has shown life recently with multiple top-10s in his past four starts.

Taylor Pendrith ($7,800) – We still don’t have enough data to form a concrete opinion, but Taylor Pendrith looks like the real deal from the limited sample that we do have in front of us. The Canadian ranks first in both distance and strokes gained off the tee in this field, and while I do have some concerns about his long irons, the par-five scoring has been brilliant. Pendrith can be deployed a little safer across the board than the other two names in this range.

Luke List ($7,500) – The stats are trending better than the current form looks on paper for Luke List, and it is the same blueprint I am trying to find over and over again. Give me distance, long iron play and the ability to score at the five critical holes.

Additional Thoughts: Chad Ramey ($7,000) burned everyone in his last start at the Fortinet Championship, but the fact that he is priced as essentially an $8,000 golfer when we look at the top-20 market is pretty telling.

$6,000 Range

Grayson Sigg ($6,900) – Grayson Sigg is the eighth-best golfer in my model for this field when it comes to current form over the past 10 weeks. His GIR percentage and long iron play might leave something to be desired, but we are just trying to find potential when we get here, and Sigg has shown that early in his career when it comes to making birdies.

Hudson Swafford ($6,900) –Hudson Swafford is a good Bermuda player that excels off the tee. Burning everyone at the Fortinet has lowered his ownership total, but I like this course better for his upside potential.

Kevin Tway ($6,800) -Five top-30s in his last seven. Seven made cuts in his previous eight. We have seen Kevin Tway excel before on these driver-friendly tests.

John Augenstein ($6,700) – John Augenstein has the amateur pedigree to continue this recent burst of success.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Dylan Frittelli ($6,600), Andrew Putnam ($6,600), Peter Malnati ($6,500), Tyler McCumber ($6,500), Brandon Hagy ($6,300), Wyndham Clark ($6,400), Anirban Lahiri ($6,200) and Davis Thompson ($6,100). Please note that these are highly volatile options that might possess a higher ceiling but also a lower floor.

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4 years ago 0 comments

The Sanderson Farms Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The new PGA Tour year is well underway and this week we make a stop in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Invitational. Feels like I’ve been saying a lot these days, but this week we will have yet another birdie-fest. Usually that means almost the entire field is in play, but there will definitely be an added emphasis to golfers who are long off the tee. We’re always looking for good APP and the shorter irons will definitely be emphasized here. For more on the course and each golfer, tune into our Tuesday night PGA Livestream at 8:00. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Sam Burns (11000) – Burns being the highest priced golfer tells you what you need to know about this field, but he has been very good lately and has shown the ability to pop at any moment. His history here is pretty weak other than a 3^rd place finish in 2019. I also like Sungjae in this range.

Mito Pereira (9900) – Likely to be very popular so be ready to pivot in GPP’s if the ownership percentage gets too high, but this guy has plenty of upside and flashed more than a few times last season and this season at the Fortinet (3^rd place). He’s well above average in almost every metric that matters to me this week.

Keegan Bradley (9700) – I don’t love the price but Keegan is an elite ball striker and his PUTT troubles could be minimized at a course that has a history of rewarding bad putters. He was 4^th here in 2020.

Cam Davis (9100) – A great course fit who has shown upside both in his recent play and at The Sanderson Farms. I really like his trajectory at The Sanderson Farms as in his only three years here he has gone MC, 28^th and 6^th.

Charley Hoffman (9000) – Certainly not a sexy pick but if there were ever a field for Charley to contend in, it would be here at The Sanderson Farms Championship. He is good OTT and great on APP and rates out well with the PUTT and with BOB gained. Finishes of 6^th and 23^rd over the last two years.

Seamus Power (8800) – I think the pricetag may keep people off of Power and I think that makes him a pretty solid GPP play. He has a lot of experience here for a younger golfer and has had solid finishes. Recent form isn’t great but plenty of upside in the BOB Gained department. I will also consider Aaron Wise and Carlos Ortiz in this range as GPP plays only.

Patrick Rodgers (7600) – A risky play for sure as the metrics don’t jump off the page and his course history isn’t great either. I do think he’s a good course fit however and I’m willing to take a chance on a guy who has shown some upside over the last few tournaments.

Luke List (7500) – If you think PUTT is neutralized this week then I have the golfer for you: meet Luke. List is great OTT and on APP and can hit it a long way, but he is borderline hilarious with the PUTT. His missed his last two cuts here as well so tread carefully. A GPP play only.

Henrik Norlander (7200) – He’s been very good as of late and his main trouble spot is the short game, which shouldn’t come into play too much at The Sanderson Farms. Finished 4^th in 2021.

Matt Wallace (7100) – His play as of late hasn’t been good on either the PGA or European Tour, but his upside is clearly better than most in this price range. Hopefully the long break has Matt tweaking his game a bit and I’m willing to take the chance in GPPs.

Rory Sabbatini (6900) – All you really need to do with Rory is look at his course history and recent history and you’ll see he’s a solid play in the 6k range. Rory was 10^th at The Wyndham, 2^nd at The Olympics and finished 12^th and 20^th at his last two efforts at The Sanderson Farms.

Brandon Hagy (6300) – A dart throw who has shown flashes, albeit sparingly. His strength is OTT. He’s MC’d here his last three efforts but finished 18^th and 14^th the two years prior to that.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Fortinet Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s the start of a new PGA TOUR season and our PGA DFS picks will help us find you some winning teams at the Fortinet Championship!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full tournament field of 150 golfers, including some elite players
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
Not a stacked PGA DFS field, but some new faces with tour cards are ready to compete!
The course: Silverado CC (North Course) in Napa, CA
- Par 72: 7,166 yards – redesigned by Johnny Miller
- Smaller poa annua greens (some Bentgrass mixed in) will play fast this week
- Shorter course with some tight fairways that longer hitters may be able to dominate
- Gettable par 5s in the 550-600 range, some shorter par 4s
- Defending champion: Stewart Cink (-21)
Clear skies expected this week, early starters could have advantage because of rain/moisture shortage
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green, Birdie or Better%, SG: Putting (Poa/Bentgrass) Par 5s Gained (550-600), Proximity from 75-150 yards

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $12,100) – Rahm is the best and most expensive golfer in the field, a historic 3-1 favorite to win, the top golfer in my model, and a must-own DFS play this week. When I really like a player to run away with a tournament despite him being the obvious chalk, my goal is to double the field’s projected PGA DFS ownership. So I’ll probably come in around 50% or more with my Rahmbo exposure this week.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,000) – I may not have big shares of Matsuyama (second overall on my model) this week, simply because it’ll be hard to fit both him and Rahm without going stars-and-scrubs, but he’ll be a staple of my non-Rahm lineups and should fare well based on his elite performance in the focus stat categories (SG: APP, Bob%, Par 5s: 550-600).

Also consider: Webb Simpson, Will Zalatoris, Kevin Na (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,200) – I’m intrigued by the excellent SG: OTT numbers for Munoz, both here at Silverado and over his past 36 rounds, and getting it in good position off the tee should yield some good scoring opportunities for the Colombian pro and PGS DFS standout. He’s played steady golf in his last four tournaments and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Cameron Champ (DK $9,000) – Champ won here in 2019 after missing the cut in 2017 and finishing T25 in 2018. It’s a venue he likes and for that reason we can throw out the poor SG:APP rating (112th in the field over his past 36 rounds) a bit. He ranks third in SG: OTT (and first in the field in that category at this venue) and should have an easy time with these par 5s.

Charley Hoffman (DK 8,800) – Hoffman could be a great play this week, as he’s third overall on my mixed model despite a spotty course history. We’ve seen Hoffman surprise before, and he’s almost never popular even when he’s striking it well. I’d probably limit my ownership in this event to GPPs, but there’s plenty of birdie-making upside with the Hoff.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900) – Grillo makes a lot of sense as a high-upside, somewhat risky PGA DFS play considering how badly his putter can let him down. He’s No. 1 overall in the field in SG:APP over his last 36 rounds and fifth overall in my mixed model. I’ll be overweight with my exposure in GPPs.

Maverick McNealy (DK $8,600) – Both Sia and I are fans of how McNealy can make birdies in bunches, and while the ball-striking numbers – both recently and on this golf course – have been lacking, this could be the year he breaks through at Silverado with a Top 15 finish. He’s No. 21 overall in my mixed model, even accounting for the relatively poor course history.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,900) – Ghim debuted here last season with a T14, and he’s certainly got the game to play well at Silverado again. He pounds it off the tee and is eighth overall in my mixed model. While he does have some accuracy issues and is far from the tour’s best putter, he’s one of my favorite PGA DFS GPP plays this week.

Also consider: Harold Varner (Cash), Chez Reavie (Cash), Phil Mickelson (GPP), Mito Pereira, Taylor Moore (GPP), Adam Hadwin (GPP), Sepp Straka, Brian Stuard, Harry Higgs (GPP)

Value Golfers (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,500) – Kizzire is another hit-or-miss PGA DFS GPP play with a dynamic game and erratic tee ball game. He’s long enough that he can occasionally hit less-than-driver and still be fine, but he’s had some difficulty at Silverado in his last three tries (all MCs) after finishing second to Brendan Steele in 2016. I’ll have some exposure in large-field GPPs, but I don’t think I can take the plunge in single-entry or cash.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,500) – I’d normally be pretty averse to Ryan Moore because he’s burned me a few times before, but he’s had some solid finishes at Silverado (including a T2 in 2018) and could be a decent low-owned play in GPPs. He’s No. 10 overall in my mixed model and his numbers across this week’s focus stats don’t show any glaring weaknesses.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – Steele won this event two years in a row (2016-17) and will likely be more popular than usual because of it. But he’s a consistent player who hits it straight off the tee, thrives in the California venues and doesn’t miss cuts here (seven in a row).

Adam Schenk (DK $7,300) – This is where things start to get a little bit risky, so I’d steer clear of Schenk and the next few guys in cash games. He’s another player that Sia and I both like this week, and he ranks 16th on my model behind some decent putting and birdie numbers. Hitting good drives at this venue has historically ben a struggle, but his SG:OTT numbers have been better lately and he’s got a T14 to his credit here in 2018.

Hank Lebioda (DK $7,100) – Hammerin’ Hank comes in at No. 23 in my model and is a huge risk since he’s missed the cut twice in three attempts at Silverado. But I’m willing to give him a shot in a few GPPs based on his ability to make birdies and the T44 he notched here in 2019.

Luke List (DK $7,100) – Sia wrote up newcomer Chad Ramey (and not Lebioda or List – two guys he normally loves), so I’ll take up the mantle and tout them. List can really stink it up with his putter, but he’s No. 11 on my model this week and seems to have a decent handle on this venue, with a T4 in 2018 and two other Top 40s in previous appearances. His ball-striking and Par 5 dominance are quite attractive in this field.

Chesson Hadley (DK $7,000) – He can’t be the Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB) again because he’s not under $7K, but he’s exactly the type of golfer we target in GPPs for his upside when he’s hitting it good off the tee, a huge advantage on this course, where he’s played very well (T14, T23, T87, T3 in his last four tries at Silverado).

Cameron Percy (DK $6,800) – Percy has a T23 and T7 in his last two starts in Napa and just eats up the par 5s here. He’s going to be a huge piece of my stars-and-scrubs builds and could end up being my BBB if he lands under 5% ownership.

More value golfers to consider: Dylan Frittelli, Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, Hudson Swafford, Adam Svensson, Russell Knox (GPP), Patrick Rodgers, Bo Hoag, Sam Ryder, Kyle Stanley, Adam Long (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,500) – Hubbard is No. 25 in my model and probably the best PGA DFS golfer you can roster at $6,500 or under this week based on his BoB% and putting numbers, when combined with relatively decent ball-striking. His SG: OTT numbers are his biggest weakness, but at this price there’s always a weakness.

Danny Lee (DK $6,400) – I don’t have a ton of interest in the punts this week, but Lee is worth a look in large-field GPPS and in your “scrubs” pieces based on decent overall numbers and some excellent finishes here (T10 in 2018). Don’t go overboard with your exposure to this risky but dynamic player.

Paul Barjon (DK $6,200) – Barjon is popping at No. 22 in my mixed model – the only golfer under $6,500 in my top 25. The biggest knock is his lack of PGA Tour experience and course history at this venue, where he’s making his debut. But I like PGA DFS guys who hit it solid off the tee and have putters that come alive and make birdies.

Additional GPP punts: Michael Gligic, Dylan Wu, Beau Hossler, Curtis Thompson

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Fortinet Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The new PGA Tour year is already underway as a full field of golfers descend upon The Fortinet Championship. This tournament comes with some headliners like Jon Rahm, but also features plenty of new names who have just obtained their PGA Tour cards. Tune into the Win Daily PGA Show at 8:00 TONIGHT for everything on all the players and course dynamics. In short, I’ll be looking for a combination of ball strikers and scorers (BOB Gained and Par 5 scoring in particular). Now, let’s get to the Fortinet Championship Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (12100) – The best in the world coming out to play this tournament is a bit of surprise, but I expect his foot to be on the pedal and the main reason to fade him is if you’re trying to get different in a big GPP.

Will Zalatoris (10500) – We saw WillyZ cool off a bit toward the back end of the PGA Tour season and a lot of that had to do with the putter. Over the last two tournaments he’s gained pretty significantly with the putter so I’m willing to dive back in on the rookie of the year.

Charley Hoffman (8800) – Hoffman’s game was a little erratic toward the back half of the season but there’s no question he’s an elite ball striker when he’s on. I think he has a shot to contend in this field. You’ll notice I didn’t write up anyone in the 9k range, but Hoffman actually belongs in that price range.

Emiliano Grillo (8900) – Grillo is a great course fit in spite of middling results at The Fortinet Championship (previously the Safeway). I’m going to lean on the ball striking upside and hope for a decent putter. I’m guessing he won’t be rostered much and therefore I like him more as a GPP play only.

Maverick McNealy (8600) – The numbers haven’t been great as of late and his price is a bit high, but I’m hoping that makes him a somewhat unpopular play. If so, I’ll throw him into some GPP’s as I’m a fan of his scoring and birdie upside.

Chez Reavie (8500) – The putting can go sideways with Reavie but the ball striking is great. He’s made his last 4 cuts here and recent form looks very solid. A nice course fit at the Fortinet Championship.

Mito Pereira (8000) – He burst onto the PGA Tour scene a few months back. He’s tailed off a bit but certainly has the upside to contend here. The putter is likely to be the main issue with Mito. Other than that he rates out well. I only like him for GPP.

Doug Ghim (7900) – Pretty much a perfect course fit who showed promise last year with a 14th place finish. His putter is a big issue, but he’s been ok in that department as of late. If he’s good with the putter, don’t be surprised if he is in the mix on Sunday.

Brian Stuard (7600) – A short and accurate striker who can really putt. His main issue is that he may not score as well on the Par 5s as some of these other guys, but I like his all-around game and I expect him to make the cut.

Adam Schenk (7300) – You may recall I was on Schenk a handful of times last year and I’ll try him again at the Fortinet Championship as well. He comes in just above average OTT and APP, but he’s Top 10 in SG Par 5 and 12^th in PUTT. I like this price especially if he’s super low owned.

Chad Ramey (7000) – I’m throwing Ramey into the article because that’s what the bookmakers are telling me to do. For some reason Ramey is 70 to 1, but he is in a Draftkings price range with golfers who are mostly 100 to 1 or longer. These types of discrepancies should not be ignored. Add to that Ramey has been very good on the KFT Tour and is a good ball striker.

Bo Hoag (6800) – I’m convinced this guy is better than people think and I’m hoping we see it this week. He rates out great in my model and I think there is some upside at this price. He rates out well on APP, BOB Gained and SG Par 5. His history here isn’t bad either. A GPP play only.

Mark Hubbard (6500) – In this field Hubbard should probably be in the 7k range. He’s no superstar but he’s Top 30 on APP, PUTT, ARG, Good Drives and SG Par 5.

Jim Herman (6500) – We are definitely in the punt range, but I’m a pretty big fan of Herman. He’s been great OTT and solid on APP. He’s also Top 25 in BOB Gained and SG Par 5.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12. No SW with the short field and no cut.

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4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Tour Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

Welcome to the FedEx Cup Playoff finale. The Tour Championship will guarantee some big paydays for this entire field, with the winner taking home 15 million dollars. The DK field is comprised of only 29 players but Patrick Reed should be added which would round out the 30 person field. We will talk about course dynamics and roster construction on Tuesday’s PGA Livestream so make sure to join us there at 8:00 EST. Please keep in mind starting strokes apply here (which we will also talk about on the PGA show). My focus this week is to be a little more contrarian than normal in GPP as there will be some mega-chalk with this week. Let’s get to the Tour Championship picks.

Jon Rahm (13000) – Rahm begins this tournament four shots behind pre-tournament leader Patrick Cantlay, but that doesn’t concern me at all. Rahm is playing better golf than anyone and I expect him to prove he’s the best golfer on the planet this week. He starts at -6.

Tony Finau (11000) – He’s in excellent form (other than a pedestrian showing last week), but he’ll only be a play for me if his ownership is relatively low (relative to the rest of the 10k and above range). He starts at -8.

Dustin Johnson (10700) – I think DJ will end up being relatively contrarian since most people will choose to pay up for a star in better form or pay down for a guy like Rory or Xander (both of whom I also like). DJ isn’t in the best form but has some great East Lake and Tour Championship history. Won’t take much for him to get his groove back. He starts at -3.

Rory McIlroy (9300) – Great price plus great form plus great history. Rory is likely to be very popular at this price so feel free to fade him due to ownership, but he’s a great value and I’ll find a way to play him. He starts at -2.

Xander Schauffele (8900) – Another guy likely to be popular and for good reason. He absolutely destroys East Lake and illustrated that last year shooting a true 15 under par (that’s NOT accounting for starting strokes). He starts at -2.

Viktor Hovland (8000) – I’m trying to stay patient with Hovland as he was a disappointment last week. With that said, he did gain over 5.5 strokes BS and it was the short game that really failed him. At this price I’m willing to see if he can turn it around and climb the Tour Championship leaderboard. He starts at -3.

Scottie Scheffler (6800) – He was curiously bad OTT last week but great on APP. He’s way behind from a starting strokes standpoint but certainly has the complete game to climb the leaderboard. He starts at -1.

Hideki Matsuyama (6400) – A monster with the ball striking and simply needs to catch a good putter. It’s a tall order for Hideki to climb the Tour Championship leaderboard, but at this price I’m willing to invest (unless his ownership is prohibitive). He starts at -1.

Joaquin Niemann (5600) – With Berger and EVR likely garnering a ton of ownership, I’ll use Niemann as my GPP pivot. Niemann was great BS last week and was bad with the short game. I’m willing to take a chance on him to avoid some chalk (I do like Berger’s price so I will find a way to play him here and there despite his anticipated mega-chalk status). Niemann starts at -1.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12. No SW with the short field and no cut.

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4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: BMW Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s Week 2 of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and our PGA DFS picks should help us find some winning teams at the BMW Championship!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of top 70 (69 in the field) golfers in FedEx Cup points
No Cut
Stacked playoff field with even more on the line
The course: Caves Valley Golf Club (newer venue with not much history)
- Par 72: 7,542 yards – designed by Tom Fazio
- Fast A-4 Bentgrass greens and deep bunkers
- Long course where driving distance is more important than usual
- Bulk of par 3s are 220+ yards – one that requires carrying a pond the entire hole
- Lots of long approaches at 175+ yards
- The course has some wide-open spaces but adds a few interesting water hazards – holes 11 and 12 have large ponds flanking the right side of the hole
- We need birdie makers and guys who rack up DK points because it’s a no cut event
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better%, SG: Putting (Bentgrass) Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Bogey Avoidance, Sand Saves

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,700) – He’s No. 1 on my mixed model and is the clear top dog and betting favorite, despite the final few holes at the Northern Trust that saw him slide into solo third place. That finish was good enough for his fourth straight top 10 and 12th of 2021. No reason to move away from him this week other than the possibility he’s carrying some frustration into the BMW.

Xander Schauffele (DK $11,100) – I like the idea of Xander getting a no-cut event on the heels of a weird week that saw him crack 70 only once – a second-round 62 that was a very short-lived tie for the course record. He’s the best option over $10K – albeit a pretty expensive one – that isn’t named Rahm.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,600) – No more discounts for JT, but I love him in GPPs, where his T2G game and ability to make birdies could help him rise to the occasion. He made 66 of 68 putts inside 10 feet last week, but never seemed to follow up his opening round 63 with lights-out play. Perhaps he’s ready to do that in the second week of the playoffs, when the stakes are a little higher.

Tony Finau (DK $9,800) – I joked last week (and so did the Breakdown crew) about how “he’s not much of a threat to win,” but could be a great to help you win a GPP. Well, he won the damn thing – and that confidence boost is just what’s been holding him back in final rounds over the past few years. There’s no way I’m fading him after that gutsy performance.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Cameron Smith

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,300) – His distance and ability tot make putts seem tailored for this particular venue, and he shows up as second overall in my mixed model. While his inconsistency and preponderance to make bad decisions – and stupid bogeys – reared their ugly heads at Liberty National, he could dominate at Caves Valley, a venue where power and T2G precision are required. And I love the discount.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – We mentioned last week that he prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, and that he’s third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021. Perhaps this week he can put it all together and climb up the leaderboards if a few more putts go down early. A great GPP play with Top 3 upside.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – A few days after a broken putter self-sabotaged his final round and tanked a lot of the WinDaily readership’s lineups, we should probably go right back to the ell with Hovland, who’s a T2G monster and normally seems pretty even-keeled on the golf course. With no real course history to look at, he doesn’t lose any advantage that more experienced tour veterans players would normally have.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,900) – Scheffler seems almost mispriced considering his upside and the way he checks all the boxes this week at Caves Valley. He’s sixth overall on my model and will be in all my single-entry GPP builds and up to 40 or 50 percent of my lineups. I love his chances to get a win here. Go get some exposure to the tall 25-year-old shining star with the great T2G game.

Corey Conners (DK $8,600) – The Canadian ball-striking sensation checks in at 15thoverall in my rankings, his putting woes and weak Driving Distance rankings the only things holding him back from the top 10. I’ll be a little more careful with him this week, maybe limiting my GPP ownership and using him in some crafty cash builds.

Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – Last week we didn’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists, and while he didn’t do enough to help take down the large-field GPPs, he was T11 after three rounds at Liberty National and I love him again for that type of tournament this week. The T2G numbers aren’t excellent, but he’s got a bit of the Cameron Smith ability to bang it out there and clean things up by capitalizing on Par 5s and making a few more birdies than everybody else. He and Smith are actually right next to each other at Nos. 28 and 29 in my mixed model.

Paul Casey (DK $8,200) – Casey seems like the cash game play to Burns’ GPP analog, but I like him everywhere this week in a no-cut event at this discount price. The nicest guy on tour has the chops to live in the elite tier with the big boys in just about any tournament, and his proximity on approaches 200+ yards is one stat I really like.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,000) – I’m including Im here based on the detailed Breakdown that Sia, Joel and Spencer gave us this week – one of the things that got me interested in Finau last week. Im showed up 25th I my mixed model and while he has some momentum after a scrappy top 20, I was kind of on the fence until they touted him. The price is excellent and the upside is there on this golf course, where his T2G skills are at a premium.

Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – Still a great price on Lowry! We talked about his top 5 upside last week and he was right there until a less-than-stellar back nine. The Irishman ranked sixth in SG: T2G for the week at Liberty National and should be priced well over $8K. Take advantage of that disrespect by rostering him in 25-30% (or more) of your lineups.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,700) – He cracked the PGA Tour’s BMW Top 20 Power Rankings this week, which always provides a nice little glimpse of what could be some the chalkier PGA DFS plays for the week, but Sia really likes him and I’m intrigued by his excellent ball-striking and ability to hit good drives that aren’t that far back from the big boys.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer, Webb Simpson Joaquin Niemann, Jason Kokrak (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,500) – Spencer likes Tringale this week and while I have harder time getting him right, it’s a fine time to go back to the well considering the veteran’s solid play over the past 36 rounds. I don’t love him most weeks, but he’s been consistent over the past four events (T14-T-26-T16 and T21 last week at Liberty National) and he can go really low some days.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,300) – Champ’s game has been rounding into better form and he’s exorcised some of the putting and short-game demons that plague his power-forward game. He’s gotten it done since a T11 at the John Deere Classic and his win at the 3M Open, which he capped with a bogey-free final round 66. Steer clear in cash games, but get some exposure in GPPs.

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,100) – Vegas is my favorite play in the low-$7K range because of his distance, OTT numbers and T2G metrics. In fact, he’s No. 13 in my model and the only $7K player in my top 15. I’ll be using him in my single-entry builds and a lot of GPPs. Sure, he might get chalky if we’re all sticking to our models and playing the optimals, but this is a truly great spot for him, especially with no cut and guaranteed four cracks at this gettable golf course.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,000) – We said last week that he really likes long golf courses and he ended up as both Sia’s Secret Weapon (SW) and my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB), two low-ownership special Discord-exclusive perks that we divulge on Wednesday night for our premium subscribers. The T2G numbers are there and I think he’ll benefit from the smooth, fast Bentgrass greens this week as well.

Cameron Davis (DK $6,900) – Davis is only No. 32 in my mixed model, but I like the fact that he can plop one into the water, hit a rock and ricochet off a few things in the grandstands before landing 10 feet from the hole for an eventual eagle. Seriously – I like him in a no-cut event where he’ll have some leeway to spray it a bit and get back to the business of making birdies, where he’s eight in the field in BoB Gained.

Stewart Cink (DK $6,600) – Cink might end up being my BBB if his ownership is low enough, because no-cut events make it almost impossible to find non-chalky value under $7K and less than 5% ownership. So maybe no BBB this week, but I’ll have shares of Cink for his length off the tee and “veteran tour grinder” makeup. But he’ll be well under 10% for my overall exposure.

More value golfers to consider: Harold Varner, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Branden Grace, Marc Leishman (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Keith Mitchell (DK $6,500) – We can load up on long hitters like Mitchell a bit more this week, but I suspect he’ll be popular after his epically clutch finish at Liberty National to make the top 70. Plenty to like about his game heading into a venue that requires length OTT.

Ryan Palmer (DK $6,400) – Palmer is long enough, and he could fly under-the-radar this week, so I’ll be getting 10-15% exposure in my large-field GPPs. Perfect last piece for medium stars-and-scrubs builds. Maybe this is the week he surprises and sneaks into the top 15.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,200) – Kizzire is a little riskier but benefits from the no-cut format and the perks of DK scoring, where birdies and eagles (and streaks) are king. I worry about his ability to find fairways and greens, but there’s upside in his power-and-putting game.

Hudson Swafford (DK $6,000) – The super-risky Swafford only makes sense as a last piece on extreme stars-and-scrubs, but the DK scoring rules and guaranteed four rounds are his friend this week. We know he’s a dynamic player who can get really hot, go low and win tournaments when they are ripe for scoring.

Additional GPP punts: Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Wise, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at Liberty National

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Smaller tournament field of top 125 golfers in FedEx Cup points
Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
Stacked playoff field with lots on the line
The course: Liberty National (Rotating venue with Boston)
- Par 71: 7,410 yards – designed by Robert E. Cupp and Tom Kite
- Links-style except for greens – and right on the Hudson River in NJ/NY area
- Smaller but fast A-4 Bentgrass greens that really benefit guys who prefer that surface
- T2G efficiency required here
- Form seems to be important based on previous winners
- Over 31% of approach shots come from 200+ yards, but TOUR average is only around 23%
Defending champ: Dustin Johnson (-30 at TPC Boston)
2019 Champ (@ Liberty National): Patrick Reed (-16) over Abraham Ancer (-15)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass) Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,500) – The No. 1 player in the world hasn’t played much lately since he was forced to withdraw from the Olympics after another positive COVID test. But his win at the U.S. Open and T3 at Royal St. George’s are proof positive he’s the frontrunner in the playoffs, and his complete T2G game and masterful short game combine to check all the boxes here. With pricing up, I like him best for GPP, but if you can find a cash lineup with him that you like, I wouldn’t blow it up.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – According to the PGA Tour stats, DJ was 23.53 total strokes better than the field average last year at TPC Boston when he ran away with the Northern Trust at -30. It was the third time he had gained 20 or more strokes en route to victory, and the change of venue shouldn’t hurt his game. He’s eighth in this field at Proximity from approaches 200+ yards over his last 36 rounds, he putts better on Bentgrass, and he makes for a great GPP play this week.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,800) – Only a handful of players have been better at the 450-500 yard Par 4s over the past 36 rounds (solid GPP options Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are a couple of them), and none of them can putt like Spieth can. Normally I wouldn’t look Spieth’s way for a cash game build in a field this good, but Sia really sung his praises in the excellent WinDaily Breakdown video, and Jordan has had such a great 2021 that I think I’m using him in cash and single entry as well as GPP.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,800) – JT hasn’t put it all together in a while (his last win was at the Players and he had lackluster finishes in the most recent majors) but he’s shown an affinity for playoff golf in the past and he’s tops in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards in length. He was T12 here in 2019 and this is a good spot to jump back on the JT wagon in GPPs.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Bryson DeChambeau (Cash), Viktor Hovland

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,400) – The freshly minted PGA Tour winner (WGC-FedEx St. Jude) was runner-up of this event at Liberty National in 2019, and he’s got to be brimming with confidence after the huge breakthrough in Memphis at TPC Southwind. Ancer is fourth overall in my mixed model and I’ll have exposure in my GPPs despite the inflated price this week.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,300) – Scheffler could be described as a decent putter, and that’s probably the weakest part of his game these days. He’s posted top 15 finishes in six of his last eight events and he thrives on long golf courses like this. There’s a bunch of golfers to like in this price range, but Scottie could be the sneakiest once again.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – While I have an aversion to Cantlay in PGS DFS and he had a really rough stretch earlier this year, there’s no denying that he’s played much better golf since the PGA Championship, when he finished T23 and won in his next start at the Memorial. He prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, is third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021 and he finished T12 here in 2019.

Harris English (DK $8,800) – English has been stellar over the past three months, winning the Travelers at TPC River Highlands, finishing solo third at the U.S. Open, and posting top 15s in five of his last seven tournaments. He’s coming off a solo fourth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and I can’t find a reason to dislike him at Liberty National, even if he ends up at a really popular play.

Patrick Reed (DK $8,600) – Reed won here in 2019, and in true Captain America form went 3-1-1 when the Presidents Cup was played at this venue in 2017. He missed the cut at the Open Championship and has had some trouble keeping the ball in the fairway lately, but he’s a brilliant playoff competitor and a great GPP pivot from the more popular players in this price range.

Adam Scott (DK $8,400) – Scott missed an easy birdie putt and lost in that epic six-man playoff a week ago after firing a five-under 65 in the final round of the Wyndham Championship, but his ascent up the FedEx cup standings was impressive enough for lots of golf writers to pick him to win this week. He has course history behind him, with a fifth-place finish in 2019 and a win in 2013.

Tony Finau (DK $8,200) – I’ve been burned many times by Finau but I’m adding him to my player pool based on Joel Schreck and Spencer Aguiar’s recommendation in the Breakdown. A closer look at his numbers shows he’s good at avoiding three-putts and his SG ARG numbers have improved. He’s not much of a threat to win, but he could be that value guy who finishes top 10 and helps you secure a GPP win.

Sam Burns (DK $8,000) – I haven’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists this week, but he’s showing up in my mixed model and he’s coming off a blistering 64 in the final round at TPC Southwind that got him int a playoff with Ancer. He’s awesome off the tee, can get really hot with the putter, and the fact that nobody’s talking about him make me love him for large-field GPPs.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7.800) – Hatton will be a lot chalkier than Burns, but the price is way too low for what he gives you on courses this length. He’s sprinkled in some bad performances with a few top 20s, and he’s No. 17 on my mixed model, in large part due to how well he handles the 200+ approaches and A-4 Bentgrass. He’s a solid option in all formats.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,700) – I had lots of Kokrak last week when he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship, but there wasn’t anything on the line then and I’m going back to the well this week with some exposure in GPPs. I don’t want to be one week off and have no shares, but I’m not going overboard.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash), Webb Simpson, Paul Casey (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, Russell Henley

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – What a great price on Lowry! The 2019 Open champ is 20th overall in my mixed model and checks most if not all of the boxes in our focus stat categories this week. The form is good, he’s solid on all types of golf courses, and he’s got top 5 upside.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – I’ve been overconfident with Tringale a few times in PGA DFS, but I really like mixing in a few shares of him this week in GPPs based on where he finishes in my mixed model (ninth overall) and his solid numbers on longer approaches.

Seamus Power (DK $7,000) – Power will likely garner some ownership at this price, so if you’re getting skittish you can pivot elsewhere in GPPs – you can follow Sia’s lead and work in a guy like Charley Hoffman. But Power has been playing much better golf lately and works as a low-cost option.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – He really likes long golf coursesand was one of the first names I noticed under $7K with good SG: T2G numbers in his last 14 rounds. His SG: APP numbers leave a bit to be desired, but he’s really good off the tee and he can make some long putts.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,900) – Schwartzel fares well in my model (No. 33 overall) and seems to step up his game in stiffer competition. He also overperforms on long courses and should fare well at Liberty National, as the overall layout seems to favor his game.

C.T. Pan (DK $6,600) – I’ve seen some folks throw out Aaron Wise as another golfer with this price to consider, but if I’m leaning contrarian here, I’d do it with a Bronze medalist who’s coming off four rounds in the 60s. Pan is a sneaky contrarian play on longer courses and I like his chances to make the cut and spike a Top 25.

More value golfers to consider: Kevin Streelman, Bubba Watson (GPP), Jason Day (GPP), Max Homa, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Talor Gooch, Brendan Todd, Chris Kirk, Pat Perez, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Aaron Wise (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Matt Wallace (DK $6,500) – He checks a few important boxes this week (450-500 yard Par 4s and overall performance on long courses) and he’s solid around the greens and in wind. Wallace almost cracks the Top 20 in my mixed model this week so I’ll be mixing him into two or three GPPS in my 20 max builds.

Luke List (DK $6,400) – I’m always drawn to List when he’s cheap, but he’s strictly GPP only because he can implode on the greens. He’s scary to roster, so keep your ownership reasonably low (under 10%).

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – Sia’s boy Hammerin’ Hank has a decent overall game and is a good ball striker. He offers plenty of value and should be a staple of stars-and-scrubs builds.

Additional GPP punts: K.H. Lee, Dylan Frittelli, Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar, Doug Ghim, Harry Higgs

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

Welcome to the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The Northern Trust features the Top 124 in the standings (125 minus Louis) and it is therefore a field that is packed with talent. This course will require all features of the golf game to be firing which means to be successful you’ll need to be good with the short and long game. We will talk plenty about course dymanics and metrics on tonight’s PGA Livestream with Joel and Spencer and myself so tune in at 8:00 EST for that. And now let’s get to the picks for The Northern Trust.

Jon Rahm (11500) – Just like anyone else, Rahm can sometimes have a bad putting tournament but he is absolutely elite in every other department. Only thing that can stop this guy in 2021 is Covid. Tough to play him at this price, but if that keeps his ownership down, I’m all aboard.

Jordan Spieth (10800) – The only knock on Spieth is that his long iron game hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders, but outside off that he checks all the boxes. Last 36 rounds he’s Number 1 in this field in the following categories that I’ve put into my model: BOB Gained, SG Par 5 and Draftking points. He’s also inside the Top 15 in the following categories: APP, PUTT, ARG, T2G, P4 450-500 and Bogey Avoidance. He’s got the all around game you’re looking for.

Abraham Ancer (9400) – The only issue with Ancer in this tournament is that you’re obviously buying the stock at its height as he’s coming off a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. With that said, he’s been in good form for a while and has all-around game that we are looking for with the Ball Striking and the short game.

Scottie Scheffler (9300) – This guy hasn’t lost strokes ball striking since the Reagan Administration. He’s also 2^nd in this field in BOB gained over the Last 36 rounds. Plenty of upside here at The Northern Trust.

Webb Simpson (8900) – Webb was a pick of ours last week because he had great course history and because it looked like he had finally turned a corner. He may not be the best course fit this week, but the corner appears to have been turned which makes this the right price.

Paul Casey (8700) – Seems like a very fair price for a golfer who is in great form and also has the all-around game to compete at this course. He’s great with the long irons and is actually a much better scorer than most people think as the last 36 rounds establish: 15^th in BOB gained, 2^nd in SG Par 5, 8^th in DK Points and 2^nd T2G. If he gets super popular then he may be relegated to cash only, but for now he can be used in both formats.

Jason Kokrak (7700) – Another golfer that has the upside to smash his soft price and who can pile up the DFS points in a hurry. His main issue is the SG ARG, but even with that he is still inside the Top 20 in my model (with the upside to finish much higher than that).

Shane Lowry (7500) – Lowry has some flaws OTT and with the PUTT but he really makes up for it on APP. If he can get things going OTT then I think he can be inside the Top 10 at the close of this tournament. A GPP play with some upside here.

Brendan Grace (7200) – Much like Lowry, he can be a little erratic OTT, but he makes up for it with great APP play and he can sometimes get red-hot with the putter. He has finished inside the Top 10 in 3 of his last 5 tournaments so the upside is there to finish high at The Northern Trust.

Charley Hoffman (7000) – He hasn’t played much golf at all lately and I think the time off will help him get back on track. Hoffman is a consummate ball striker, and quite frankly, does everything well. If he were coming in with some recent play and good form under his belt, he’d be priced 1000 dollars higher. I’m happy to take this leap.

Charl Schwartzl (6900) – The DFS community is sophisticated enough to not jump off of a guy due to an MC, but we’ll need to wait and see what happens with Charl after his very poor showing last week. He’s been in good form overall and I think he’s a value at this price in spite of burning plenty of lineups last week. A GPP consideration only.

Hank Lebioda (6300) – the metrics are starting to slip a bit for this DFS Darling, but he still rates out as 50^th in my model. He’s pretty weak OTT but he rates out above average on everything else I looked at.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 42-12. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all Northern Trust lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Wyndham Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re aiming for a big payday at the Wyndham Championship – helping you find some winning teams in your contests!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full tournament field of 156 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
Conclusion of PGA Tour regular season
Weaker field but a few big names – and a few guys looking to crack into Top 125 in FedEx Cup standings
The course: Sedgefield Country Club (Greensboro, NC)
- Par 70: 7,130 yards – Donald Ross design
- Fast Bermuda greens on a shorter course that yield lots of birdies
- Tree-lined fairways make Driving Accuracy more important than distance
- Not incredibly long, with eight par 4s between 400-450 and two reachable par 5s
- The best round here is a 59 (by Brandt Snedeker in 2018’s Rd. 1), so we should expect receptive greens and low scores
- RBC Heritage (Harbour Town) is still a good course comp (in terms of crossover success) and greens are comparable to those at Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson Farms)
- Other course comps include the Sea Island Resort that’s populated by scores of PGA golfers and some TPC courses – including TPC San Antonio, TPC River Highlands, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Summerlin and TPC Deere Run
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, Driving Accuracy (over Distance), Par 4s Gained (450-500)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $10,700) – Coming off a disappointing T17 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Louis still has to be considered as one of the best ball strikers and putters in the field. Sedgefield isn’t one of his normal tour stops, so there’s also some concern if he can get into a birdie-making rhythm right away as he feels out this course. But he’s got the best 2021 numbers of anybody in the field and there’s no reason he can’t thrive here in the Carolina suburbs.

Update: Louis withdrew today, so we can pivot to Hideki Matsuyama in GPPs and/or eat the Webb chalk. But we can’t play Mr. Major Runner Up this week.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Webb is actually $600 cheaper than last year, which is great considering he’s rounding back into form with Top 20 finishes in his last two events – both against much stiffer competition. He finished T9 at the RBC Heritage and most importantly is a course horse and perennial threat to win here with top 3 finishes in his last four Wyndham championships. He’ll be chalky – so many contrarian-forward builders may opt for leverage by fading him in large-field GPPs – but he’s fine for cash and single-entry.

Jason Kokrak (DK $10,000) – I love Kokrak this week. He’s performed well here before with three Top 20s in his last four tries (including a T6 in 2019 and T15 last year), and 2021 has given him the confidence to win – not just place. His stat profile checks a few boxes this week too, as he’s 28th in GIR and fifth in SG:Putting this week.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,600) – It was great to hear Bettor Golf Podcast metrics guru Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) talk up Sungjae and his affinity for “short Bermuda tracks” on The Breakdown with Sia and Joel last night. Im is one of the first golfers I wrote down to cover this week and he’s at a solid price point for his accuracy and overall PGA DFS upside.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris (GPP), Brian Harman

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Russell Henley (DK $9,400) – Henley isn’t knighting the world on fire lately, but he’s played well enough to notch top 20 finishes in the three tournaments bookended by MCs at the Memorial and Open Championship. Sia mentions in his Initial Picks article that Henley has solid accuracy numbers and elite SG:APP metrics, so we can definitely look his way in all formats.

Robert MacIntyre (DK $8,900) – MacIntyre is making his first appearance at the Wyndham Championship this year, and he does an excellent job of staying out of trouble and giving himself opportunities to make birdies. At TPC Southwind, he posted four consecutive round in the 60s, and a second consecutive week on fats Bermuda greens could be a huge help.

Kevin Na (DK $8,800) – We haven’t heard his name much lately, and that’s usually when Na pounces for a top 5 finish – which he had the last time he played here in 2017 (T4). The WinDaily crew is mostly united in considering Na a sneaky GPP play this week, and while his viability in cash games leaves a lot to be desired, I may consider him for a low-cost, larger-field single-entry tournament and a bunch of lottery-ticket GPPs.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,600) – He’s made three straight cuts and he should be able to make plenty of birdies on this golf course if he doesn’t force things off the tee and clubs down when appropriate. I’m not in love with the $8,000-8,500 range this week, so I’ll be paying up for Fowler on plenty of my GPP builds.

Mito Pereira (DK $7,900) – We’ve spoken ad nauseum about course history at this venue, but while there’s no course history to speak of with the swashbuckling Chilean, he just seems to handle whatever course designers have been throwing at him. Pereira is a huge bargain under $8K considering his talent and form, so we should get some exposure in GPPs at this price.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – Poston missed the cut last year after dismantling this golf course when he won here in 2019. He’s playing well, with a solo second at the Barbasol and a T28 at the 3M Open. J.T. could be a solid GPP option if we can keep him around 20% ownership to stay well ahead of the field without going all in.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,700) – Gooch is good on birdie fests and he’s made seven straight cuts – an encouraging sign considering he’s traditionally not the most consistent golfer. The shorter course should help him hit less than driver and find more fairways this week, and he’s solid on approach and with his ball-striking T2G.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,500) – Varner is always comfortable returning to the Carolinas, is a solid ball-striker and was one of my favorite plays last year when he finished T7. This season he’s alternated good performances with bad, but I like his chances for another top 10 or 15 at Sedgefield.

Also consider: Matthew Wolff (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power (GPP), Kevin Kisner (GPP), Kevin Streelman (GPP), Justin Rose (GPP), Lucas Glover, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

C.T. Pan (DK $7,400) – I’m all over Pan in GPPs this week despite the occasional three-putt and missed opportunity that continues to plague his game. Watching him charge back into contention and finishing on the podium in Tokyo was a proud moment as I touted him quite a bit that week in my article and on Discord.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,300) – There’s plenty of favorable course history (two of Sabbatini’s last nine top 10s came on this course in 2017 and 2019).and he’s the reigning Olympic silver medalists – so we know he can go low here. Sabbatini needs a decent finish here as he’s just 141st in the FedExCup standings, and the price is great for his upside.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,100) – Todd was $8,900 here last year when he was in the middle of a little heater, and while the game isn’t quite where it was last year, he remains a good fit for this golf course and could be a guy who benefits from the shorter layout and accessible greens. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Ryan Armour (DK $7,000) – Joel’s BFF is streaky player who I wouldn’t touch in cash games, but has had lots of success at Sedgefield. Armour posted a T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018, T22 in 2019 and T25 last year. He was T5 at the Barbasol and T6 at the 3M before his MC at the Barracuda last week. I’m not nearly as excited to roster him as Mr. Shreck is, but perhaps maybe I should be.

Brian Stuard (DK$6,900) – The MC last week belies some stellar iron play over the past 12 sounds, and Stuard is checking the SG:APP and SG: OTT boxes this week because of his burgeoning accuracy. If his putter behaves this week on these fast Bermuda greens, he should be able to post some good scores on this shorter-than-usual PGA course.

Jim Herman (DK $6,900) – The veteran is a great course fit and coming off a week where he had some early success before faltering on the weekend. He’s also the defending champ at Sedgefield, so I’ll swallow hard and grab some exposure in GPPs. I don’t love playing him, but he’s a birdie-maker with upside who loves the track.

More value golfers to consider: Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Chez Reavie, Patrick Rodgers (single-day and GPP), Chris Kirk, Matt Jones, Joel Dahmen, Bo Hoag, Mark Hubbard (GPP), Brice Garnett (GPP), Kramer Hickok (GPP), Francesco Molinari (GPP), Adam Long (GPP), Roger Sloan (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chesson Hadley (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,400) – His form is awful but he plays well at this venue, with T9-T22-T36 in his three appearances here. That’s enough for 2 or 3 lineups in my 20-max builds.

Vincent Whaley (DK $6,400) – Whaley was playing super consistent golf until a six-event stretch where he missed four cuts in six tournaments. Last week he finished T9 and there’s something to be said for getting back on this consistent horse who debuted with a T37 at this course last year.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,200) – Last year I had Duncan in my punts to consider and he finished T13, so I’ll give the wayward ball striker another shot this year in 1/20 GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Fabian Gomez, Rob Oppenheim, Chris Baker, Brian Gay, Michael Gellerman

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The last week of the regular season wraps up in North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship. Some of the golfers will be chasing down the top FedEx Cup prize while others will be simply trying to get into the Top 125. This week we have a pretty straightforward course that will play short and relatively easy. I’ll be focused on hitting fairways, being great on APP and being a good putter. Distance OTT and ARG are not big factors this week. More on course dynamics and on all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the Wyndham Championship.

Louis Ooshtuizen (10700) – King Louis has been playing very well and if not for a poor Day 4 at the WGC, he would have had his 4^th Top 5 in a row. Louis makes birdies, is a great putter and is great on APP. The two main drawbacks are he can be a little erratic OTT (but I don’t expect that to be a problem here) and he has no course history whatsoever. If you’re looking for pivots in this range I think Hideki and Zalatoris will be far less owned than Louis and Webb (below).

Webb Simpson (10600) – Webb has the best course history at the Wyndham Championship that I’ve ever seen (outside of Tiger Woods there is no golfer that dominates any course like Webb dominates this course). His game has been a little off but it appears that he found some confidence last week and appears highly motivated to charge into the FedEx Cup playoffs with a Wyndham Championship win under his belt.

Russell Henley (9400) – I’m not inlove with this 9k range but I do think Henley sets up well for this course. Other than an MC at the Open he has played well (Top 20s in the three tournaments prior to the Open). Henley can keep it in the fairway, is elite on APP and appears to be rebounding from a stretch of bad putting.

Seamus Power (8500) – Looking for a ball striker who has a recent outright win and is allergic to finishing outside of the Top 20? Perfect! He also happens to rank 2^nd in the field in Birdie or Better Gained percentage over the last 24 rounds (Kizzire ranks 1^st but not a part of this Initial Picks article).

Kevin Streelman (8300) – Not much by way of course history, but I like the course fit and specifically like his APP numbers. The formula this week is to keep in the fairway, be great on APP (especially from 150-175) and get hot with the putter. Streelman can do all those things. He does carry some volatility so only a GPP play for me this week.

Charl Schwartzl (8100) – His weakness is typically ARG and that shouldn’t hurt him here. His BS and finishing positions have been solid and he’s no stranger to a hot putter. I should note that he doesn’t rate out very well in the more important proximities (125-175) and therefore I may consider him for GPP only, especially if he’s low owned.

Mito Pereira (7900) – Very impressive start to this young man’s career. His ball striking has been excellent and he simply needs an average putter in order to outperform his soft pricetag. I should note the 7k range is rich with value and although Vegas and Kizzire did not make the Initial Picks cut, I do think they carry plenty of upside (my concern was staying in the fairway OTT).

Hank Lebioda (7600) – He had to WD at the 3M due to a family emergency but he was on his way to making yet another cut. The ball striking has been good, the putter has been hot and he is 5^th in BOB gained over last 24 rounds. The finishes have also been great for Lebioda (3 Top 10s in a row prior to the 3M WD) and if he once again finds a hot putter, well, see you on Sunday afternoon.

Chez Reavie (7400) – Reavie has been inconsistent this season but should find comfort at The Wyndham Championship as it appears to suit his game. With that said, his history here isn’t great so be careful. I’m leaning on his ball striking (significant BS gains over the last 6 measured rounds) and hoping for the best with the putter.

Ryan Armour (7000) – He checks quite a few boxes as he is a great Wyndham Championship course fit (keeps it in the fairway, good on APP and good with the putter), has good course history and is in good form. He is a great value play here and likely to be popular. If you’re interested in some pivots I think Brendon Todd and Doc Redman will be low owned with upside.

Henrik Norlander (6600) – The ball striking has been good since May, but we were still waiting for the putter to come around as it was struggling the entire year. Well, he’s gained with the putter in 5 of his last 6 tournaments and in his last 4 in a row. Pair that with what has become elite ball striking since the Palmetto and you have some upside with Norlander. I have at least four others to consider in this 6k range which I will be happy to share in Discord and on our PGA Livestream tonight.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

4 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks

Course – Country Club of Jackson

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Potential MME Pivot – Sergio Garcia ($10,500)

$9,000 Range

$8,000 Range

Cash Play: Seamus Power ($8,800)

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Chad Ramey ($7,000) burned everyone in his last start at the Fortinet Championship, but the fact that he is priced as essentially an $8,000 golfer when we look at the top-20 market is pretty telling.

$6,000 Range

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value Golfers (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

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