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PGA DFS Picks: Wyndham Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re aiming for a big payday at the Wyndham Championship – helping you find some winning teams in your contests!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 156 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Conclusion of PGA Tour regular season
  • Weaker field but a few big names – and a few guys looking to crack into Top 125 in FedEx Cup standings
  • The course: Sedgefield Country Club (Greensboro, NC)
    • Par 70: 7,130 yards – Donald Ross design
    • Fast Bermuda greens on a shorter course that yield lots of birdies
    • Tree-lined fairways make Driving Accuracy more important than distance
    • Not incredibly long, with eight par 4s between 400-450 and two reachable par 5s
    • The best round here is a 59 (by Brandt Snedeker in 2018’s Rd. 1), so we should expect receptive greens and low scores
    • RBC Heritage (Harbour Town) is still a good course comp (in terms of crossover success) and greens are comparable to those at Country Club of Jackson (Sanderson Farms)
    • Other course comps include the Sea Island Resort that’s populated by scores of PGA golfers and some TPC courses – including TPC San Antonio, TPC River Highlands, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Summerlin and TPC Deere Run
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, Driving Accuracy (over Distance), Par 4s Gained (450-500)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $10,700) – Coming off a disappointing T17 at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, Louis still has to be considered as one of the best ball strikers and putters in the field. Sedgefield isn’t one of his normal tour stops, so there’s also some concern if he can get into a birdie-making rhythm right away as he feels out this course. But he’s got the best 2021 numbers of anybody in the field and there’s no reason he can’t thrive here in the Carolina suburbs.

Update: Louis withdrew today, so we can pivot to Hideki Matsuyama in GPPs and/or eat the Webb chalk. But we can’t play Mr. Major Runner Up this week.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Webb is actually $600 cheaper than last year, which is great considering he’s rounding back into form with Top 20 finishes in his last two events – both against much stiffer competition. He finished T9 at the RBC Heritage and most importantly is a course horse and perennial threat to win here with top 3 finishes in his last four Wyndham championships. He’ll be chalky – so many contrarian-forward builders may opt for leverage by fading him in large-field GPPs – but he’s fine for cash and single-entry.

Jason Kokrak (DK $10,000) – I love Kokrak this week. He’s performed well here before with three Top 20s in his last four tries (including a T6 in 2019 and T15 last year), and 2021 has given him the confidence to win – not just place. His stat profile checks a few boxes this week too, as he’s 28th in GIR and fifth in SG:Putting this week.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,600) – It was great to hear Bettor Golf Podcast metrics guru Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) talk up Sungjae and his affinity for “short Bermuda tracks” on The Breakdown with Sia and Joel last night. Im is one of the first golfers I wrote down to cover this week and he’s at a solid price point for his accuracy and overall PGA DFS upside.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Will Zalatoris (GPP), Brian Harman

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Russell Henley (DK $9,400) – Henley isn’t knighting the world on fire lately, but he’s played well enough to notch top 20 finishes in the three tournaments bookended by MCs at the Memorial and Open Championship. Sia mentions in his Initial Picks article that Henley has solid accuracy numbers and elite SG:APP metrics, so we can definitely look his way in all formats.

Robert MacIntyre (DK $8,900) – MacIntyre is making his first appearance at the Wyndham Championship this year, and he does an excellent job of staying out of trouble and giving himself opportunities to make birdies. At TPC Southwind, he posted four consecutive round in the 60s, and a second consecutive week on fats Bermuda greens could be a huge help.

Kevin Na (DK $8,800) – We haven’t heard his name much lately, and that’s usually when Na pounces for a top 5 finish – which he had the last time he played here in 2017 (T4). The WinDaily crew is mostly united in considering Na a sneaky GPP play this week, and while his viability in cash games leaves a lot to be desired, I may consider him for a low-cost, larger-field single-entry tournament and a bunch of lottery-ticket GPPs.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,600) – He’s made three straight cuts and he should be able to make plenty of birdies on this golf course if he doesn’t force things off the tee and clubs down when appropriate. I’m not in love with the $8,000-8,500 range this week, so I’ll be paying up for Fowler on plenty of my GPP builds.

Mito Pereira (DK $7,900) – We’ve spoken ad nauseum about course history at this venue, but while there’s no course history to speak of with the swashbuckling Chilean, he just seems to handle whatever course designers have been throwing at him. Pereira is a huge bargain under $8K considering his talent and form, so we should get some exposure in GPPs at this price.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,800) – Poston missed the cut last year after dismantling this golf course when he won here in 2019. He’s playing well, with a solo second at the Barbasol and a T28 at the 3M Open. J.T. could be a solid GPP option if we can keep him around 20% ownership to stay well ahead of the field without going all in.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,700) – Gooch is good on birdie fests and he’s made seven straight cuts – an encouraging sign considering he’s traditionally not the most consistent golfer. The shorter course should help him hit less than driver and find more fairways this week, and he’s solid on approach and with his ball-striking T2G.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,500) – Varner is always comfortable returning to the Carolinas, is a solid ball-striker and was one of my favorite plays last year when he finished T7. This season he’s alternated good performances with bad, but I like his chances for another top 10 or 15 at Sedgefield.

Also consider: Matthew Wolff (GPP), Si Woo Kim, Seamus Power (GPP), Kevin Kisner (GPP), Kevin Streelman (GPP), Justin Rose (GPP), Lucas Glover, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

C.T. Pan (DK $7,400) – I’m all over Pan in GPPs this week despite the occasional three-putt and missed opportunity that continues to plague his game. Watching him charge back into contention and finishing on the podium in Tokyo was a proud moment as I touted him quite a bit that week in my article and on Discord.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $7,300) – There’s plenty of favorable course history (two of Sabbatini’s last nine top 10s came on this course in 2017 and 2019).and he’s the reigning Olympic silver medalists – so we know he can go low here. Sabbatini needs a decent finish here as he’s just 141st in the FedExCup standings, and the price is great for his upside.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,100) – Todd was $8,900 here last year when he was in the middle of a little heater, and while the game isn’t quite where it was last year, he remains a good fit for this golf course and could be a guy who benefits from the shorter layout and accessible greens. I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Ryan Armour (DK $7,000) – Joel’s BFF is streaky player who I wouldn’t touch in cash games, but has had lots of success at Sedgefield. Armour posted a T4 in 2017, T8 in 2018, T22 in 2019 and T25 last year. He was T5 at the Barbasol and T6 at the 3M before his MC at the Barracuda last week. I’m not nearly as excited to roster him as Mr. Shreck is, but perhaps maybe I should be.

Brian Stuard (DK$6,900) – The MC last week belies some stellar iron play over the past 12 sounds, and Stuard is checking the SG:APP and SG: OTT boxes this week because of his burgeoning accuracy. If his putter behaves this week on these fast Bermuda greens, he should be able to post some good scores on this shorter-than-usual PGA course.

Jim Herman (DK $6,900) – The veteran is a great course fit and coming off a week where he had some early success before faltering on the weekend. He’s also the defending champ at Sedgefield, so I’ll swallow hard and grab some exposure in GPPs. I don’t love playing him, but he’s a birdie-maker with upside who loves the track.

More value golfers to consider: Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Chez Reavie, Patrick Rodgers (single-day and GPP), Chris Kirk, Matt Jones, Joel Dahmen, Bo Hoag, Mark Hubbard (GPP), Brice Garnett (GPP), Kramer Hickok (GPP), Francesco Molinari (GPP), Adam Long (GPP), Roger Sloan (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Chesson Hadley (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,400) – His form is awful but he plays well at this venue, with T9-T22-T36 in his three appearances here. That’s enough for 2 or 3 lineups in my 20-max builds.

Vincent Whaley (DK $6,400) – Whaley was playing super consistent golf until a six-event stretch where he missed four cuts in six tournaments. Last week he finished T9 and there’s something to be said for getting back on this consistent horse who debuted with a T37 at this course last year.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,200) – Last year I had Duncan in my punts to consider and he finished T13, so I’ll give the wayward ball striker another shot this year in 1/20 GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Fabian Gomez, Rob Oppenheim, Chris Baker, Brian Gay, Michael Gellerman

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PGA

The Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The last week of the regular season wraps up in North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship. Some of the golfers will be chasing down the top FedEx Cup prize while others will be simply trying to get into the Top 125. This week we have a pretty straightforward course that will play short and relatively easy. I’ll be focused on hitting fairways, being great on APP and being a good putter. Distance OTT and ARG are not big factors this week. More on course dynamics and on all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the Wyndham Championship.

Louis Ooshtuizen (10700) – King Louis has been playing very well and if not for a poor Day 4 at the WGC, he would have had his 4th Top 5 in a row.  Louis makes birdies, is a great putter and is great on APP.  The two main drawbacks are he can be a little erratic OTT (but I don’t expect that to be a problem here) and he has no course history whatsoever.  If you’re looking for pivots in this range I think Hideki and Zalatoris will be far less owned than Louis and Webb (below).

Webb Simpson (10600) – Webb has the best course history at the Wyndham Championship that I’ve ever seen (outside of Tiger Woods there is no golfer that dominates any course like Webb dominates this course).  His game has been a little off but it appears that he found some confidence last week and appears highly motivated to charge into the FedEx Cup playoffs with a Wyndham Championship win under his belt.

Russell Henley (9400) – I’m not inlove with this 9k range but I do think Henley sets up well for this course.  Other than an MC at the Open he has played well (Top 20s in the three tournaments prior to the Open).  Henley can keep it in the fairway, is elite on APP and appears to be rebounding from a stretch of bad putting. 

Seamus Power (8500) – Looking for a ball striker who has a recent outright win and is allergic to finishing outside of the Top 20?  Perfect!  He also happens to rank 2nd in the field in Birdie or Better Gained percentage over the last 24 rounds (Kizzire ranks 1st but not a part of this Initial Picks article).

Kevin Streelman (8300) – Not much by way of course history, but I like the course fit and specifically like his APP numbers.  The formula this week is to keep in the fairway, be great on APP (especially from 150-175) and get hot with the putter.  Streelman can do all those things.  He does carry some volatility so only a GPP play for me this week.

Charl Schwartzl (8100) – His weakness is typically ARG and that shouldn’t hurt him here.  His BS and finishing positions have been solid and he’s no stranger to a hot putter.  I should note that he doesn’t rate out very well in the more important proximities (125-175) and therefore I may consider him for GPP only, especially if he’s low owned.

Mito Pereira (7900) – Very impressive start to this young man’s career. His ball striking has been excellent and he simply needs an average putter in order to outperform his soft pricetag.  I should note the 7k range is rich with value and although Vegas and Kizzire did not make the Initial Picks cut, I do think they carry plenty of upside (my concern was staying in the fairway OTT).

Hank Lebioda (7600) – He had to WD at the 3M due to a family emergency but he was on his way to making yet another cut.  The ball striking has been good, the putter has been hot and he is 5th in BOB gained over last 24 rounds.  The finishes have also been great for Lebioda (3 Top 10s in a row prior to the 3M WD) and if he once again finds a hot putter, well, see you on Sunday afternoon.

Chez Reavie (7400) – Reavie has been inconsistent this season but should find comfort at The Wyndham Championship as it appears to suit his game.  With that said, his history here isn’t great so be careful.  I’m leaning on his ball striking (significant BS gains over the last 6 measured rounds) and hoping for the best with the putter.   

Ryan Armour (7000) – He checks quite a few boxes as he is a great Wyndham Championship course fit (keeps it in the fairway, good on APP and good with the putter), has good course history and is in good form.  He is a great value play here and likely to be popular.  If you’re interested in some pivots I think Brendon Todd and Doc Redman will be low owned with upside.

Henrik Norlander (6600) – The ball striking has been good since May, but we were still waiting for the putter to come around as it was struggling the entire year.  Well, he’s gained with the putter in 5 of his last 6 tournaments and in his last 4 in a row.  Pair that with what has become elite ball striking since the Palmetto and you have some upside with Norlander.  I have at least four others to consider in this 6k range which I will be happy to share in Discord and on our PGA Livestream tonight.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

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PGA DFS Picks: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got another no-cut event to cover in our PGA DFS contests for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, and our picks will help you green up those screens!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong field of 66 golfers, including 48 of the OWGR top 50
  • Back to Thursday morning lock
  • No cut event
  • The course: TPC Southwind (Memphis, TN)
    • 7,200+ yards, Par 70
    • Zoysia fairways and small Bermuda greens – both a little harder to hit than most courses
    • Tree-lined course features lots of water in play – in the form of lakes, streams and ponds in a bucolic farm-like setting (there’s even a couple of silos!)
    • Tough Par 3s and difficult finishing hole (Par 4, 461 yards alongside a water hazard)
    • Mostly long Par 4s (450+) with some doglegs, and just two Par 5s – including one “must” birdie hole at No. 16
    • All-around game is rewarded, as winners tend to be good throughout the bag
    • Defending champion: Justin Thomas (-13); 2019 champ: Brooks Koepka (-16); 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
    • Comps (similar layout/design): TPC River Highlands (Travelers), Harbour Town GC (RBC Heritage)
  • Course history shows some players tend to fare better here than others
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking; Birdie or Better %; SG: Off the Tee; SG: Around the Green; SG: Putting (Bermuda); Par 4s Gained (450-500), Opportunities Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Collin Morikawa (DK $11,000) – I’ll chalk up last week’s podium no-show to a bad putting week and the leveled playing field of a gettable Olympic course. This week, he’s on faster putting surfaces that seem to help better ball strikers and guys who flourish at majors, and he’ll rely on his game’s all-around brilliance over four days to contend for a WGC title. In this week’s must-see breakdown, Joel talks a little bit about how to pick your top-tier PGA DFS guys and how this is a week where the cream will rise to the top – favoring players like Morikawa.

Brooks Koepka (DK $10,600) – Koepka is one of a few golfers who play well at TPC Southwind and could walk away with the trophy this week, so we’ll have to mix in some shares of him in GPPs. I’m never too keen on using him in cash games, but this could be the week that I deploy him there and in a small- and large-field single-entry GPP contests banking on a top 5 finish – something he’s done a lot here. He’s already notched a win (2019), a T2 (2020) and a T2 in 2016 before TPC Southwind was a WGC event – and his form is solid with T4-T5-T6 in his last three tournaments.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,200) – With lots of ownership going to Koepka, DJ makes for a cheaper pivot in GPPs and certainly has the right skill set to get it done at TPC Southwind. My usual worries about putting are alleviated in the switch to the faster Bermuda greens, since it’s a little easier for him to compete with the better, more aggressive putters when he doesn’t have to worry about slamming in ten-footers.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – Like DJ, he’s a course horse and a fan of these putting surfaces, which – let’s be honest – has been the most glaring issue with JT’s game over the past few tournaments. Both he and JT are guys who like to get the line right and give it a good roll, and that’s rewarded here – as opposed to the bumps and bounces of Bentgrass and “pop-it-in” Poa. He’s another bargain PGA DFS GPP pivot given his upside, though there’s moderate risk if he doesn’t see many putts go in in the first two days.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,600) – Louis is on quite the heater, notching four second-place finishes in his last eight starts worldwide, including a solo second at the U.S. Open and T2 at the PGA Championship. He also finished T3 at the Open Championship and he likes this course – with T20-T6 in his two trips to Memphis. He’s a solid putter on any surface and this may be the best he’s hit the ball in his celebrated career.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Daniel Berger (DK $9,200) – Berger has taken advantage of this venue in his four appearances at TPC Southwind, winning the FedEx St. Jude Classic twice and sharing runner-up honors in the WGC last year. He’s among the better PGA DFS values in the field when we consider form, course history and his superiority in target golf. Berger is a solid play in all formats and has winning upside despite the insanely strong field.

Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $8,800) – I’ll be rooting hard for Matty Fitz to get his first PGA Tour victory this week, and this golf course is a good place for that to happen. The English standout seems to thrive at this venue and on courses with similarly small Bermuda greens. With four guaranteed days for him to get hot and make some birdies, he should climb the leaderboard and be in contention come Sunday.

Webb Simpson (DK $8,500) – We have to like this price point for Simpson, who has struggled in 2021 but should benefit from a no-cut event on a Bermuda greens and a recent T19 at the Open Championship. He finished second here in 2019 and T12 in 2020, so it’s as good a place as any for him to get back in the swing of things.

Abraham Ancer (DK $8,300) – Ancer could be downright dangerous this week, as he finished T14 at the Olympics and has logged six top 10s among 15 official top 25s this season. He also plays well at WGC events, notching top 20s in his last six appearances in dating back to the 2019 WGC Match Play. I love getting him for all four rounds and seeing just how hot he can get with his pin-seeking approaches.

Corey Conners (DK $8,100) – Conners isn’t the best putter in the world and there’s always the risk of three-jacks on greens this fast – but he undoubtedly has the T2G chops to avoid the ubiquitous water trouble that threatens both tee balls and approach shot at TPC Southwind. I’d consider him a decent cog in balanced PGA DFS GPP builds but a longshot to win.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $8,000) – His ball-striking may still be along way from the days when he earned the “Fairway Jesus” sobriquet, but his T16 finish among some excellent competitors at the Olympics and fondness for the switch to Bermuda could mean good things for him in Memphis this week. I’m nowhere near “all-in” status with Tommy, but a  low score on one of the first couple days could help propel him to a top 10 finish this week, so I’ll have some exposure in GPPs.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,900) – Zalatoris is a relatively high-risk GPP wildcard this week, since there’s really no telling if his back is okay after the withdrawal at the Open Championship, and he hasn’t played this course before. Regardless, he’s a talented ball striker and he’s got four days (if his body holds up) to navigate the hazards and hard-to-hit greens at TPC Southwind. I’d steer clear in cash games and single-entry, but ownership should be low and I’m fine using him in 5-10% of GPPs.

Sungjae Im (DK $7,700) – I love Sungjae on Bermuda greens and I’m not deterred by the hectic schedule that had him competing for a medal in Tokyo just last week. He could be a super sneaky GPP play and possibly a solid staple for single-entry if you’re buying into his upside at this affordable price.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry, Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Brian Harman (DK $7,500) – Harman had been getting it done prior to his WD (undisclosed) at the 3M Open after tying for 19th at the Open Championship, earning top 20 finishes in four of his last five starts dating back to the Charles Schwab Challenge. Other than a missed cut at the PGA, his game has flourished in major championships and the tougher-field events in 2021.

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,300) – I like having Sergio on Bermuda for four days, since he’s got the ball-striking prowess to excel at TPC Southwind and avoid some of the water than could swallow up less experienced players. Since a T20 at Colonial, he’s notched four straight top 20s and finished T25 at the 3M Open, so he’s worth a look in all formats at this bargain price.

Billy Horschel (DK $7,100) –It’s been a spell since I’ve considered Horschel, probably because he has only played four tournaments since the start of June, and he wasn’t a PGA DFS factor in any of them (67th at the Memorial, a disappointing MC at U.S. Open, T54 at Scottish Open and T53 at Royal St. George’s). TPC Southwind, on the other hand, favors his game and has historically ben a get-right spot for the native Floridian, who favors Bermuda over the surfaces we’ve seen recently on tour. He’s a fine risk-reward GPP play this week.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – Value like this is sometimes difficult to find in no-cut events, but Poulter offers plenty of upside considering all the factors of pricing and performance in the focus stat categories. If he can stay out of trouble and avoid the big numbers, he’ll be a solid value over four days in Memphis, where he finished in eighth place in 2019 but faltered (T69) in 2020. Whether you need to include a guy like Poulter depends a lot on your roster construction, but I have a feeling I might end up using him a bit.

Kevin Kisner (DK $6,800) – TPC Southwind, on a cursory glance, really seems like another good spot for Kisner to post a Top 20 or better finish. The venue features small Bermuda greens and plenty of doglegs, making it comparable to venues where he’s done some of his best work on the PGA Tour (including Copperhead and Harbour Town). He’s finished T25 and T27 the past two years, and any improvement on that should work for the builds that include “Lil’ Kis” and his positive putting pedigree this year.

Phil Mickelson (DK $6,600) – Getting Phil at $6,600 is just too good to pass up given his record at TPC Southwind and familiarity with the venue. Sure, he may flake out and start three-putting or miss a bunch of fairways and be playing catch-up after a couple days, but he’s good enough to post a low number early and let his talents carry him the rest of the way. I’ll have exposure in GPPs, though I’m not forcing him into my builds as he’s more of a “last piece” flier.

Robert MacIntyre (DK $6,600) – Like Phil, this lefty has the overall game to flourish at this venue, even if he lacks the course history/experience to be a no-brainer value play. Bobby Mac is a risk since he finished T59 in the 2020 WGC-FedEx (his first and only try), but a string of solid finishes in 2021 may have given him added confidence heading back to Memphis this year.

More value golfers to consider: Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Adam Scott, Marc Leishman, Justin Rose (GPP), Matthew Wolff (GPP), Cameron Champ (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Palmer (DK $6,500) – Let’s start by referring to what Sia said in his Initial Picks article, where he touted Palmer as “the type of player that you simply wouldn’t take in a normal cut event” because of his form and the inherent risk you assume with the possibility of the dreaded “two days and done.” If he can post good scores in one or two rounds, that might be enough to return value in stars-and-scrubs builds.

Stewart Cink (DK $6,500) – It’s nice to see other WinDaily writers on the same punts as me, although that could mean elevated ownership, and some of our leverage could “Cink” if we invest a bit too much in good ol’ Stewie Kablooie this week. This is where I’ll stop having anything more than 15% ownership in my tournament entries and keep the remaining suggestions to one or two entries out of 20 in the big field GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Kevin Na, Lucas Glover, Garrick Higgo, Matt Jones, Jim Herman

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PGA

The WGC-FedEx St. Jude: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

We are in the stretch run heading toward the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour is back on American soil for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  This Par 70 7200 yard TPC Southwind course will test the complete game as golfers will need to be good in all areas.  My focus will be on keeping it in the fairway and being good with the longer proximities (150-200 will be an emphasis), but I’m also looking for golfers that have the short game (ARG/PUTT) on these small Bermuda greens.  This is another no-cut event. More on course dynamics, favored builds and players on Tuesday’s WinDaily Sports PGA Livestream which you can watch here at 8:00 EST.  Let’s get to the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Initial Picks.

Collin Morikawa (11000) – Collin lost strokes on APP last week in a fairly significant way and still managed a 4th place finish.  I don’t expect the APP to continue to fail him, which means this brilliant ball-striker will be contending again on Sunday afternoon.

Brooks Koepka (10600) – In three of his last four measured tournaments he’s gained over eight strokes ball striking (BS).  That’s pretty incredible.  His track record here is also incredible (2nd, 1st, 5th over his last three efforts). 

Louis Oosthuizen (9600) – I’m looking for ball strikers at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude who are in good recent form and who have good course history.  Check.  Check.  Check.

Scottie Scheffler (9100) – The 9k range is rich with talent and I have no issue with Hovland, Cantlay or Berger but I’m going to take a shot with Scottie.  He shows up in a big way in talent-laden fields, ball striking has been excellent and the putter can get hot.

Webb Simpson (8500) – There’s no reason to trust Webb right now, but that’s why he may be a great pivot and play in a GPP.  He’s coming off a Top 20 at The Open which is pretty great considering where his game was immediately prior to that.  He also has some good history here with a 12th and 2nd over his last two efforts at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.

Abraham Ancer (8300) – Ancer grades out very well in my model and really does check all the boxes in terms of hitting fairways, being superb with his long irons, being good on Par 4’s between 450-500, bogey avoidance and GIR.  His upside may be capped, but he’s likely paying off his price either way.

Corey Conners (8100) – Another elite ball striker who just needs to find short game, which is more likely here because of the Bermuda greens.  Be careful as his ARG game could get him into trouble.  As for cash game potential I like Ancer (above) and English (below) a bit better than Conners.

Harris English (7600) – Over his last five measured starts he’s gained in BS.  Over his last six measured starts he’s gained ARG.  Finally, he’s gained PUTT in 5 of the last 6 measured rounds.  He is putting the entire game together and he’s tremendous value at this price.

Tyrrell Hatton (7400) – Two missed cuts in a row should keep ownership down but he has great upside, not just in theory, but also in practice.  At the Palmetto in June he gained 11.75 strokes BS on his way to a 2nd place finish (thanks to losing 3 strokes with the putter).  Bermuda is a preferred green for Hatton.  Not a cash play but should be great savings and upside for GPPs.

Stewart Cink (6500) – He’s hit a rough patch with the putter which is part of the reason he’s missed two cuts in a row.  But he’s only one month removed from gaining 9.42 strokes at The Travelers.  You’re hoping he can turn the putter around and putt like he did earlier this year while also capturing some consistency with the ball striking.

Ryan Palmer (6500) – Palmer is the type of player that you simply wouldn’t take in a normal cut event because the game has fallen off a cliff over the last few months.  With that said, because the WGC-FedEx St. Jude has no cut, I’m more willing to push a few Palmer chips into the middle.  He may not be good for 4 rounds, but he has the ability to pop for 2-3.

Jim Herman (6000) – He hits fairways and has a solid long iron game and that’s led to four Top 30’s in a row.  He’s also gained in BS and in putting five tournaments in a row.  Herman is an absolute no-name, but if you put these numbers next to a guy with a pedigree, he’d be priced a thousand dollars higher.  

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all WGC-FedEx St. Jude lineup changes and weather reports.

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PGA DFS Picks: The Tokyo Olympics

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The Olympics are in full swing and so are the PGA DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, so we’re bringing you our picks to help find you some gold!

PGA DFS pricing for the Olympics is pretty tight this week – and we’ve already lost some big names to COVID, but there’s a path to victory if we’re using the right guys. Let’s get to it!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Top-heavy (10 of the world’s top 25) international Olympic field of 60 golfers
  • Early lock time: Wednesday, July 28 – 6:30 p.m. EST
  • No course history (except Japanese golfers, but we have some comps
  • No cut event
  • The course: Kasumigaseki Country Club (East Course)
    • 7,400+ yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consult
    • Bentgrass Greens that should be soft/receptive from rain and humidity
    • Course features little water that’s in play but plenty of bunkers (68)
    • Wider fairways that a typical PGA event
    • Long course with two 625+ yard Par 5s, three Pars 4s over 500 yards
    • Comps (similar layout/design): Colonial CC, Firestone GC, Riviera CC, Quail Hollow, Shadow Creek, Congaree
    • 2016 Defending Gold Medal champ: Justin Rose (N/A)
  • Overall form probably the most important “non-metric” we can look at
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Sand Saves

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Collin Morikawa (DK $11,200) – The betting favorite in the Olympics, there’s no flaws to his game right now and the course conditions should keep him firing at flags and making birdies. He’s played well at just about all the course comps over the past couple of seasons and is the best golfer in the field. Fine for cash, GPP – any format you’re playing.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,900) – Thomas has not recorded a top 10 on the PGA Tour since his win at the Players Championship, but he’s got four rounds to learn the ropes of this venue and rise to the top of the leaderboard. I have a feeling he’ll be somewhere in the top 5 come Saturday evening, and I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,500) – A positive COVID test forced the Masters champion to withdraw from the Rocket Mortgage and kept him from traveling to Royal St. George’s for the Open Championship. Matsuyama has experience at this course and really wants to win gold for the host country. He also checks all the boxes this week as he’s top 25 on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, par-5 scoring and FedEx Cup points.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,300) – McIlroy has gained 63.8 strokes total over his past 36 rounds on Tom Fazio designs, and this course seems top be right up his alley. He’s entering this competition playing for Ireland and will be teeing it up alongside Morikawa and Sungjae Im on Wednesday. He’s a great way to start your more balanced teams if you’re fading Morikawa and JT.

Paul Casey (DK $9,500) – I considered writing up Patrick Reed, but think he’s more of a GPP play given the last-minute replacement of Bryson DeChambeau and his struggles off the tee recently. While the wider fairways should help Captain America, I prefer the savings we get with Casey, who fares well at no-cut events, finished T15 at the Open Championship and plays well on Fazio courses.

Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed (GPP), Shane Lowry

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer seems like a relatively safe play in this price range as he’s a long hitter who’s exceptional off the tee and with his approaches. If he can stay out of the many bunkers that pepper this course, he should fare well enough to challenge for a medal.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,900) – The Man of Smoke and Mirrors is a big hitter who excels with his putter – a solid combination on a relatively unknown course where Smith should have the requisite tools to get hot and contend come the weekend. Among the 60 golfers in the field, only Schauffele and Alex Noren have been better with the flat stick over the past 24 rounds.

Corey Conners (DK $8,800) – Conners is fourth in the field for SG: OTT over the past 24 rounds and while there are plenty of golfers with more upside around the greens, I have a hard time seeing him finish outside the top 20 here this week. With a little luck and a hot putter, he could notch a top 10 finish.

Garrick Higgo (DK $8,300) – A super-talented hitter with a flair for the dramatic, Higgo gets another high-profile start in his young career with this appearance in Tokyo, where he’ll be representing South Africa in his quest for gold. A very intriguing GPP play who may make my single-entry lineup.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $8,000) – I really like the Canadians this week, albeit for different reasons. Whereas Conners gets the nod for his ball-striking, the form that Hughes has shown the last month or so is impressive. It’s very hard to argue against giving him a shot at this still-reduced price point.

Si Woo Kim (DK $7,800) – He’s had a bizarre 2020-21 season, but the upside is still there. Way back in January Kim fired a final-round 64 to win The American Express by one stroke over Patrick Cantlay, earning his third PGA Tour victory. This event means a lot, as he skipped the Open Championship to prepare for the Olympics, and a win here would mean he gets to avoid mandatory two-year military service in South Korea – a career obstacle that has hindered many golfers from the Land of the Morning Calm.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,700) – The Colombian is one of my favorite golfers for value and upside in this tough pricing algorithm, finishing T3 at one of our course comps (Colonial CC) earlier this year at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He’s fifth in this field for SG: Total on Fazio designs over the past 36 rounds and fourth in SG: Putting (on Bentgrass) over his past 24 rounds.

Also consider: Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Guido Migliozzi, Thomas Pieters, Carlos Ortiz

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,400) – Vegas sports excellent SG:OTT numbers, which should help him tremendously on a golf course that seems to favor length a bit over driving accuracy. The no-cut format should help his chances.

Rikuya Hoshino (DK $7,300) – Hoshino is a Japanese golfer who finished T26 at the U.S. Open in June. Once we get down in this range, the options are limited, and his experience here is enough of an advantage for me to drop him in a few lineups.

Mito Pereira (DK $7,300) –The form has been great, as the Chilean sensation finished T5 (Barbasol) and T6 (3M Open) in consecutive PGA Tour events in July. If we start a GPP lineup with Munoz, Kim, Hoshino and Pereira, we still have $10K per golfer for the remaining two slots.

C.T. Pan (DK $7,100) – CT is playing for Chinese Taipei this week, and he’s got plenty of experience in stiff competition. His road to the 2016 Olympics was a long one, but he finished T30 – good enough for me to give him a look this time around as well.

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800) – The last golfer I’ll consider in this range is Norlander, who ranks a distant fifth (behind Casey, Schauffele, Morikawa and Hovland) in the field for SG on Par 5s in the past 24 rounds. He’s a fine way to get some value in your lineups without sacrificing too much upside, since we know he can get it going on the scoring holes.

More value golfers for GPPs: Thomas Detry, Matthias Schwab, Ryan Fox, Rory Sabbatini, Anirban Lahiri

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Wu Ashun (DK $6,500) – He’s made the cut in nine of his last 10 EURO events, and while there’s no cut here, Ashun has the birdie-making upside to notch a Top 25 finish. He’s an unfamiliar name who could surprise in Tokyo.

Fabrizio Zanotti (DK $6,400) – Zanotti finished T15 at the 2016 Olympics in Rio, and he’s the only golfer from Paraguay in the field. Huis most recent finishes are a T65 at the Scottish Open and T33 in the Irish Open – solid considering the glut of unknowns in this price range.

Sepp Straka (DK $6,400) – The dynamic Straka should benefit from the layout and format – where one bad round won’t cost you the weekend and a chance at cashing. At just $6,400, I’ll have some shares.

Additional punts: Sami Valimaki, Jorge Campillo, Gunn Charoenkul

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PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such a watered-down field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weak but full tournament field of 156 golfers
  • Only third time playing this PGA event, so still not much course history
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • The course: TPC Twin Cities (Minneapolis)
    • 7,431 yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consult
    • Bentgrass Greens
    • Course features 27 water hazards and 72 sand traps
    • Past performance here indicates some correlation with Rocket Mortgage performance
    • Ball-striker’s course
    • 2020 Defending champ: Michael Thompson at -19 (Matthew Wolff won in 2019 at -21)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee; Birdie or Better %, Eagles Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Par 5s Gained (550-600),

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300) – If DJ’s game is on, he could walk away with this tournament, as it’s a gettable track that will yield tons of birdies and eagles. He also prefers putting on Bentgrass, so there’s that. If we can find enough value in the $7K range this week – and I think we can – we shouldn’t shy away from him in single-entry GPPs.

Tony Finau (DK $10,500) – Finau is expensive this week, but he belongs in this elite company as he and the guys north of $10K are head-and-shoulders ahead of the field in terms of talent. He’s a staple of my builds and I’ll be coming in around double the projected field ownership.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,900) – This is where the drop-off starts in terms of risk, and Garcia’s is slightly mitigated by the fact that putter isn’t the most important club in the bag this week. I like him a tad better on Bermuda, but Garcia should be able to contend for a win in this watered-down field.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – He’s GPP only, but as Joel points out in the Breakdown, we need to be ready to pivot in large-field GPP if ownership gets out of control. There’s some chatter that his ball-striking is really coming into form and that’s a huge plus heading into a tournament where he’s already won.

Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Cameron Tringale

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,300) – Grillo sticks out as a high-upside, medium-risk play with solid form coming in. In his Initial Picks article, Sia points out that Grillo was a T3 here last year, and that’s exactly why I’m drawn to the Argentinian despite the increase in salary from what we’re used to for Emiliano.

Cameron Davis (DK $9,200) – He won the Rocket Mortgage at the start of the month, and the correlation makes me interested in him in GPPs. Davis also finished T12 here last year, so there’s a lot to like about the strides he’s made in 2021, even if he’s not the most consistent player above $9K.

Keegan Bradley (DK $8,800) – Bradley struggles with the outer, but he’s one of the best ball strikers around and this could be a great spot for a bounce back. I’d feel more safe about cash game use if his price was a little lower, but he might make my single-entry team for his upside in this field.

Stewart Cink (DK $8,700) – Cink is playing some of the best golf of his career and is woefully underpriced given the strength of this field. Safe for cash, but he could get popular if you’re targeting him for GPPs.

Maverick McNealy (DK $8,400) – One of our favorite birdie-fest golfers, McNealy is a guy who I’ll be overweight on regardless of his final ownership projections. This is his first run at the TPC Twin Cities, but I’m buying.

Luke List (DK $8,100) – List has struck the ball well in 2021 and posted consecutive top five finishes once his newborn son was deemed healthy. The veteran also led the field last week in SG: T2G and ranks No. 22 on tour in that metric. You can do a lot worse in PGA DFS than picking this guy.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,900) – One of these weeks, the talented Ghim is going to put together four good rounds and win a PGA Tour event. He’s made three straight cuts after an MC at the memorial but was T14 the week before at the Charles Schwab. Ghim isn’t safe, but he could be worth the risk.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,900) – This is exactly the kind of PGA DFS tournament where you wonder why you didn’t go back to Kirk, who finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage before last week’s MC at the Open Championship. A much-improved golfer in 2021, I’m banking on a better finish than the T41 he posted at the 3M last year.

Richy Werenski (DK $7,600) – A high-risk GPP option I’ll be using in about 2-3 out of 20 lineups, Werenski can get on a roll fast and plant himself on the leaderboard with the best of the mid-range golfers. He’s worth another look at this event, where he finished T3 last year.

Also consider: Robert MacIntyre, Patton Kizzire, Lucas Herbert, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Gary Woodland, Hank Lebioda (GPP), Ryan Moore, Lanto Griffin, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Mito Pereira

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,500) – Vegas checks a few important boxes this week, and his weaknesses are mitigated by the layout and putting surfaces. I like Vegas on soft courses you can attack (T11 at the John Deere), and this is certainly one of those.

Erik Van Rooyen (DK $7,400) – Van Rooyen was actually $8,800 in this event last year, way more expensive than both Grillo and Tringale, who were both in the low-to-mid-$7K range and are now over $9K. Sure, it’s been a wild year, but EVR still has some upside, especially with SG: Putting (where he ranks No. 105 on Tour) not as important here.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,300) – The last birdie-fest course he played was at the AT&T Byron Nelson, when he finished T17 at -16. I really like his chances at a top 20 here and his ownership should stay relatively low.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,300) –Like Vegas, Stanley makes sense for courses you can go after and post lots of birdies, and I’m intrigued by the still-depressed price despite seven straight made cuts. The upside is lacking a bit, but he seems fine for a last piece in more balanced builds where we want to stay away from the sub-$7K golfers.

Bo Hoag (DK $7,000) – The pickings get slim once we get down to $7K, but I’ve got plenty of interest in Hoag this week. He posted a T12 here last year and is coming in after a T11 at the Barbasol and three straight made cuts (T47 at the John Deere, T33 at the Rocket Mortgage).

Kevin Tway (DK $6,600) – The (Friday) birthday narrative has been discussed ad nauseum on the WinDaily writers text message thread, and again in the Breakdown. This is one of the only venues where Tway plays well, so he’s worth considering at this price.

More value golfers for GPPs: Troy Merritt, Michael Thompson, Adam Schenk, Chez Reavie, Scott Stallings, Pat Perez, Sepp Straka, Tom Lewis (GPP), Adam Long (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Satoshi Kodaira (DK $6,500) – Kodaira hurt a lot of folks at high ownership when he was the DFS darling bargain play a couple weeks ago, but he played well at the Barbasol last week (T20). He also made the cut here in 2019 and should do so again. The upside is there at this price point.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – BB was my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB) at the John Deere, and he ruined a great start (67 in round 1) with a 72 on Friday that knocked him out of the weekend. We’ll go back to the well this week, as I think he should fare well here, where he’s made the cut in both tries.

Robbie Shelton (DK $6,500) – He’s been bad this July, with three straight MCs, but I like his bounce-back chances on a course where he’s had success before (T3 last year). Again – he’s a GPP-only play and I might use him in up to 3/20 lineups.

Additional punts: Josh Teator, Michael Gligic, Fabian Gomez, Michael Gellerman

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PGA

The 3M Open: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The PGA Tour is in Minnesota this week for the 3M Open. This is a relatively watered down field which should provide some opportunity for 2nd and 3rd tier golfers to go out and rack up the DFS points. I’ll be looking for ball strikers (OTT and APP) with an emphasis on APP. I’m also going to put a slight bump on PUTT as these greens are big and may be fast as the tournament progresses. More on the 3M tournament course and the players during tonight’s Win Daily PGA Livestream. We will also be discussing Joel’s $100,000.00 hit and his near outright for one million dollars! Now, onto the Initial Picks for the 3M Open.

Tony Finau (10700) – I have no issue if you want to skip this range altogether, but I do like the upside of Finau.  He placed a very respectable 15th at The Open Championship after missing two cuts in a row.  Prior to the two missed cuts he was striking the ball very well.  The putter may be an issue but he can get hot in that department.  A GPP play only.

Emiliano Grillo (9300) – I’m looking for ball strikers at The 3M and Grillo certainly fits that description.  His ARG game is terrible but that shouldn’t hurt him here.  His PUTT can get him into trouble, but he’s just about average in this field and that’s fine with me.  Tied for 3rd here last year, and oh by the way, he was 12th at the Open last week. 

Bubba Watson (9100) – I’m not a Bubba guy in general, but his ball striking has been great after a recent slump with the APP game.  Bubba finished 6th at the Rocket Mortgage and 19th at The Travelers and is in a weak field where he has to think he can win a tournament.  A GPP play only.

Stewart Cink (8700) – A great ball striker who has been great on APP as of late.  He’s coming off an MC at The Open which doesn’t bother me too much.  Prior to that he was your consummate cut maker and he made the cut at the 3M Open last year as well (finished an underwhelming 46th).  I think the good year continues for Cink.

Maverick McNealy (8400) – This will be a birdie-fest and Mav is a birdie-maker.  He’s got 4 Top 30s in a row due to good ball striking and a good putter.  A very fair price here.

Charl Schwartl (8200) – The PUTT worries me as he’s just outside the Top 100 in this field last 24 rounds.  But his BS is Top 10 and his BOB% (‘Birdie or Better) is 35th.  Charl isn’t usually on my radar, but these metrics are very solid.  He finished T3 last year at the 3M last year.

Luke List (8100) – Another bad PUTT on my 3M list (extremely lazy pun right there), but another guy who is really striking the ball and closing well.  He’s got two Top 5’s over his last two tournaments and finished 32nd here last year.  I prefer List as a GPP play.

Doug Ghim (7900) – He gained almost 9 strokes T2G at the JDC which is insane.  Problem has always been the PUTT for Ghim, but the good news is he hasn’t been quite as bad in that department over the last three tournaments and he’s a better putter on Bentgrass. 

Hank Lebioda (7900) – Well, hello old friend.  Lebioda’s ball striking has been excellent for almost six weeks and he’s also killing it with the putter.  This has resulted in made cuts and Top 10 finishes.  Is this the new kid on the block or a flash in the pan?  I’m not sure to be honest, but there’s not chance I’m jumping ship in this field and at this price.

Mito Pereira (7600) – Haven’t rostered this KFT monster yet, but I think now is the time to dive in.  It appears that it has taken him a couple of tournaments to adjust to the PGA Tour, but last week’s 5th place finish has him on the upward trajectory that I’m looking for.

Jhonattan Vegas (7500) – Great OTT and great on APP with an erratic putter than can get hot (albeit not very often).  In every GPP you need to be chasing upside and I think Vegas fits the description. 

Chez Reavie (7400) – You don’t need to be a bomber on this 3M Open track (but it certainly helps), but Reavie is really striking the ball well and he should be a very good course fit.  He’s made 5 out of 6 cuts.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 40-12. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all The Open Championship late tips, lineup changes and weather reports.

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PGA DFS Picks: The Open Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

This week’s PGA DFS picks article should help you find some winning combinations and focus your player pool for the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Field of 156 golfers including the best players in the world
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 70 and ties play the weekend
  • No 2020 tourney; Defending (2019) champion: Shane Lowry (-15)
  • The course: Royal St. George’s Golf Club (Sandwich, England)
    • 7,268 yards, Par 70
    • Traditional seaside venue that can be affected by drastic wind changes and weather
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Tough links style course with deep bunkers and some OB providing a challenge
    • Some blind tee shots and plenty of humps and bumps that can send balls off track
    • Just two par 5s and four Par 3s – so Par 70 specialists could fare well
    • Length not that important, as most par 4s are in the 400-475 range
  • Wind and rain expected, with 20-25 MPH gusts blowing on Saturday and Sunday
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, Par 70 (and links) performance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Despite the lack of a top 10 finish at the Open Championship (his best finish was a T11 at Royal Troon in 2016), Rahm enters the week as the betting favorite and highest priced PGA DFS golfer in the field. There’s no real weakness to his game; he currently leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring – and ranks second in SG: T2G. His ball-striking has been on point this season, he loves links courses and he’s in play for all formats this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,900) – I refuse to give up on Rory and think he’s a good GPP play this week in the wake of the missed cut at the Scottish Open – which he jumped into a little late because his wife and child are still stateside. He may end up being the lowest-owned golfer in the $10K+ range and that’s what we’re looking for since his upside is still in the trophy-hoisting territory. “Rors” is both familiar with this giant-killer venue (T25 here in 2011) and the elements that could stymie a large portion of the PGA DFS field.

Brooks Koepka ($10,700) – Because of his impressive history in majors (four wins in the past five years) and the Open Championship (three top 10s since 2015), Koepka isn’t cheap, but he’s a fine GPP play. The polarizing figure was a 13-year-old spectator in 2003 when Ben Curtis won at Royal St. George’s, and while he said Tuesday morning (in an interview that had the NYT writing about it) that while this isn’t his favorite British Open venue in the venerable rotation, there’s no reason to leave him off your builds with his uncanny ability to compete in the world’s biggest tournaments.

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – The former Open champion (2017 at Royal Birkdale) is impressive on links courses and has the requisite elements to his game is solid form heading into this week’s test. We have plenty of options in the $7,000-7,500 range this week if we’re rostering Rahm-Spieth to start, and if we’re fading Rahm there’s a great route to balanced builds that start with Spieth as the highest spend ($8K+ remining per golfer). I’ll be hoping to land around 25-40% ownership in GPPs.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,300) – There’s not much more to say about the former Open champion than what Sia said in his U.S. Open Initial picks piece and what I covered in the picks column leading into Torrey Pines, when he finished solo second after being edged out by Rahm. He’s not playing in the Olympics, so this tournament has to be an important one for him as he continues playing solid golf in the late summer/early autumn of his fantastic career. He’s a guy I love in basically all the majors for PGA DFS, but I know he’ll be popular this week.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – Hovland – the No. 14 golfer in the world – became the first Norwegian winner in the history of the European tour when he prevailed at the BMW International Open in Germany a couple weeks ago, and his steady play  and positive attitude should help him navigate the inexorable bounces and bumps of Royal St. George’s. The only drawback is his last of experience, as this will be his Open Championship debut, and it’s one of those things that’s got Sia concerned, as he explains in the breakdown.

Patrick Reed ($8,800) – While I’m a little skeptical that Reed can endure the elements and win the Open Championship, he’s certainly in play at this low price because of his ability to finish in the top 15. The form isn’t great, and his accuracy could be a problem here, but the ironically nicknamed “Captain America” loves to play the villain and he’s a shrewd large-field GPP play with an elite short game.

Paul Casey (DK $8,600) – Casey disappointed with a T54 at this venue in 2011 (a third-round 78 the main culprit), and his Open Championship finishes have left a bit to be desired through the years. But he’s a much more consistent golfer these days and has six top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments, so I like his chances for a top 10 this week, especially at this relatively fair price.

Tony Finau (DK $8,400) – I’ve said “never again” after being burned by Terrible Tony many times, but the talent level is off the charts and the price is a reasonable one despite two straight MCs at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Finau has not missed a cut at the Open Championship in four tries, and three of those attempts have yielded Top 20 finishes (solo third in 2019, T9 in 2018, T18 in 2016). He probably circled this on the schedule the minute he trudged off the 18th green at Torrey Pines, and I will be surprised (and angry) if he sabotages my GPP lineups again this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $7,900) – As you may have noticed if you’re a regular reader of PGA DFS Picks, Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite golfers to roster in single-entry and all types of GPPs, and I’ll continue that approach this week at Royal St. George’s – a venue where he should thrive – despite the disappointment of coming off a playoff loss to Min Woo Lee at the Scottish Open. His best finish in the Open Championship was the most recent iteration in 2019 (T20), and I believe he’s ready to break through with a top 10 (or better) this time around – when distance is not as important (it’s even shorter than it was in 2011) and he can plot his way around the golf course. In fact, Fitzpatrick came here last year (after having been told that he wasn’t going to enjoy it because of the blind shots and uneven lies) shot 67 and loved the course.

Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – The defending champion is under $8K this week, and that alone puts him in play in all formats, even if he’s exceedingly popular. Lowry performs well in weather and wind, and he was the only player who didn’t collapse in the gale-force gusts that plagued the final round at Royal Portrush Golf Club in 2019. There’s plenty of PGA DFS upside in this price range, and both Fitzpatrick and Lowry make for fine core plays in all kinds of builds.

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,600) – His last Top 5 at a British Open came in 2016, but he finished T9 here in 2011. He’s far from a safe play and I wouldn’t touch him in cash games despite the low price, but he’s a great GPP option given his upside and the dynamic quality of game and ball-striking prowess. He’s had a hard time closing things out this season, with some good rounds giving way to PGA DFS tumbles over the weekend, but he’s in play at this venue in large-field GPPs.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Francesco Molinari (DK $7,300) – The talented Italian won the Open Championship in 2018 and finished T11 in 2019 – impressive finishes that show he can handle links style courses with the best of them. He missed the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011, but a decade of additional experience in major championships should help him this week.

Harris English (DK $7,300) – English has piled up the top 10 finishes this season (seven), and he’s one of just five golfers to notch two wins on tour this season. In the focus stats/metrics, he checks some crucial boxes for Royal St. George’s, ranking eighth in SG:T2G and seventh in Bogey Avoidance over his past three tournaments. He’s also missed the weekend just once in five Open appearances and has made cuts in 13 consecutive majors – something that makes him a solid play for single-entry and cash games as well as large-field GPPs.

Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – Fowler is teeing it up in his 11th Open Championship, with only one MC at this event (and three finishes of T6 or better – including a T2 from 2014 and a T5 at Royal St. George’s in 2011. That level of experience is a big help, and he’s finally rounding into form after a rough stretch in late 2020/early 2021. The fan favorite has now secured a weekend pass in three of his last four starts (T8, T11, MC and T32) and the impressive T8 was at the year’s second major – the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.

Robert MacIntyre (DK $7,300) – MacIntyre is right there with the rest of the high-upside players at this price point, even if PGA Tour golf fans aren’t that familiar with his record. Bobby Mac impressed at the Royal Portrush in 2019 at his Open Championship (and major tournament) debut, concluding in difficult conditions with a final round 68 and eventual T6 finish. He’s now ranked No. 53 in the world, making the cut at five straight majors – a T12 at the Masters this April his best major finish since the 2019 Open. MacIntyre shot under par in all four rounds last week and posted a T18 at the Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open – a links with at least a passing resemblance to Royal St. George’s. Excluding a COVID-related withdrawal at the Irish Open recently, The Scotsman has made a remarkable 25 of his last 26 cuts worldwide and may even be viable in cash games this week.

Branden Grace (DK $7,200) – Grace is usually hit-or-miss in major championships, but he arrives sporting some good form due to some sparkling iron play over his last dozen or so rounds. He has a history of going low at the Open, dating back to his 62 in Round three Saturday at Royal Birkdale in 2017 – when he finished T6 with Koepka, Marc Leishman, Alex Noren and Matthew Southgate at -4. The 33-year-old South African also finished inside the top 20 at the Open Championship in 2015, and arrives at this week’s edition on the heels of two consecutive top seven finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,200) – Since missing the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011 (which surely sticks in his craw), Poulter has a spotty history at the Open Championship with five MCs and three top 15s – a testament to his dynamic play and viability as a GPP play. His 2021 record is actually a lot more steady: Since the PGA Championship, he’s 6-for-6 with two top five finishes including T4 at the Scottish open this past week.

Alex Noren (DK $7,200) – Noren has a distinguished record at the Open Championship, finishing T11 with Rahm, JT, Molinari and Tom Lewis in 2019 and earning top 10s in 2017 and 2012. He’s also finished among the top 15 (including a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic) in two of the past three starts, sporting excellent T2G numbers in that stretch. I wouldn’t pencil him into all my single-entry lineups, but I’m willing to take as stab in the lower-fee SE and in all types of large-field GPPs.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,000) – Kuchar is my choice for sneaky veteran bargain play – especially on a course that’s not all about mashing and/or the traditional “target” golf that’s played on a lot of the modern stateside venues. He’s fared well at the open Championship in the past and finished solo second at Royal Birkdale in 2017. In fact, he’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts in this tournament (and eight straight), the only outlier being the 2011 edition at – you guessed it – Royal St. George’s. The revenge narrative is strong this week and Kuchar should be low-owned with Top 10 upside.

Lucas Herbert (DK $6,800) – The woefully mispriced Herbert won at the Irish Open two weeks ago and notched a T4 in Scotland last week, so he’s in fine form heading into the Open. The plucky Australian also finished inside the top 20 at a couple of relatively prestigious PGA Tour events – the Memorial and the Travelers. He’s now won a couple times in his past 23 starts worldwide and should offer plenty of value as you construct your builds this week.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,600) – Hey – it’s another cheap Lucas! Glover is coming off a huge win at the John Deere Classic, snapping a winning drought that lasted over 10 years, and he should be excited about playing a course where he posted his best-ever finish at the Open Championship – a T12 in 2011. Winning two weeks in a row and collecting just his second major championship is a tall order – no doubt – but he’s a risk-reward play that won’t cost you very much to roster.

More value golfers to consider: Phil Mickelson (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (GPP), Thomas Detry, Matt Wallace, Russell Henley (GPP), Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners (GPP), Danny Willett, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Stewart Cink, Richard Bland, Adam Long (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Justin Harding (DK $6,500) – More of a single day (first-round?) showdown longshot, Justin Harding heads into the 2021 The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s Golf Club with insanely long (+35000) odds to win, but he’s in play due to the fact that he made the cut and finished 41st in his last appearance at this event in 2019, and he’s super cheap. I’m targeting him for 1/20 GPP entries.

Chris Kirk (DK $6,400) – Kirk made three of his last five cuts, but he’s 17-for-23 this season – decent for a golfer under $6,500. While he missed the cut during his last British Open appearance in 2016, he’s a much better golfer now and should be up to the challenge personally and professionally. Like Harding, I’ll find a place for him in 1/20 large-field GPP entries.

Johannes Veerman (DK $6,100) – Veerman posted a T3 at the Irish Open two weeks ago and is coming off a T8 at the Scottish Open, so the form is solid. He’s seemingly a fans of links-style courses and while he’s a virtual unknown who could boom or bust this week, the price is dirt cheap and he’s one of the better low-cost options in the $6K range – which we’ll need to peruse if we’re going full-on stars and scrubs. He might be my favorite play under $6,600, so I’m willing to click him into 5-10% of my large-field GPPs (and one or two of my 20-max entries).

Additional GPP punts: Sebastian Munoz, Carlos Ortiz, Marcus Armitage, Jason Scrivener, Sam Burns, Chan Kim

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PGA

The Open Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The year’s final major is upon us and it is at Royal St. George’s Golf Club in England for The Open Championship.  This is a Links style course characterized as a coastal course, with no protection from the elements and filled with deep bunkers and sand dunes.  Wind is likely to be big factor and we may need to wait until Wednesday night to determine where the edge is in that regard.  Note that this tournament locks around midnight Wednesday evening. Make sure you check our Discord Wednesday night before lock for all of the last minute information.  And check out the PGA team Tuesday night for our Live PGA Livestream for notes on all of the players and the course itself.

Brooks Koepka (10700) – I think Brooks and Jon Rahm have the best chance for an outright win at The Open, and therefore, I’ll take the slight discount that Brooks offers (I clearly like Rahm as well).  He has plenty of Links experience and a great track record at Opens and majors in general.  Over the last two tournaments, which included the US Open, he’s finished Top 5. 

Jordan Spieth (9700) – Great finishing positions, great strokes gained metrics, great Open experience and great price.  Spieth epitomizes the idea of value.  No one is a lock in this tournament, but can’t deny the value of Spieth.

Louis Oothuizen (9300) – Speaking of great track records in majors, there’s no disputing that Louis is usually completely dialed in at majors and this week should be no different.  He’s also been in good form with 2nd place finishes in his last two majors (US Open and PGA Championship).

Patrick Cantlay (8900) – He’s been very solid after his slight slump and this feels like one of many value plays in this tournament.  Cantlay won the Memorial (kinda, Rahm WD) and he has Open experience. 

Patrick Reed (8800) – We’ll need to wait and see how ownership plays out, but I think Reed is very sneaky as he’s the type of golfer that will map out and navigate this course easier than most.  His recent form is average, but his Open experience is very strong.

Matt Fitzpatrick (7900) – If he ends up being chalky, I’ll likely pivot as I’m never “inlove” with Matt Fitzpatrick, but he’s another guy that shouldn’t have trouble navigating tough conditions and he just had a great showing in a tough Scottish Open field. 

Jason Day (7700) – A GPP play only and this write up assumes four days of health, but Day could be a great play if people are shy to use him.  His Open and Links experience are great and he’s coming in with good form.

Daniel Berger (7400) – This price is pretty eye-popping and while he lacks some of the experience on Links style courses that I’m looking for, the value is too good to ignore.  Berger rates out very well for me and belongs in the 8k range.

Garrick Higgo (7400) – He’s been great on the Euro Tour and the adjustment to the PGA Tour has also been easier than expected.  I don’t think he’ll be intimidated by this major.   

Harris English (7300) – He has middling results in Opens in the past, but he has made 4 of 5 cuts.  His recent form is excellent (1st, 3rd and 14th over his last three tournaments) and I think he’s another guy in the low 7k range that can offer plenty of upside.

Branden Grace (7200) – He’s been pretty dialed in lately and that shows in improving SG metrics and impressive finishing positions.  He also has the requisite Links experience.  A good course fit at a good value. 

Lucas Herbert (6800) – He’s 3rd on the European Tour in SG: Total and that’s shown in his finishing positions.  He’s coming off a T4 at last week’s Scottish Open so the form is there.  His Open experience is limited but he certainly has Links experience.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 38-12. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all The Open Championship late tips, lineup changes and weather reports.

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: John Deere Classic

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

This edition of PGA DFS picks should help you dominate your contests at the John Deere Classic – even if some of the world’s best golfers are overseas!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full but weak field of 156 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
    • No 2020 tourney; Defending (2019) champion: Dylan Fritelli (-21)
    • The course: TPC Deere Run (Silvis, IL) – D.A. Weibring design
    • 7,268 yards, Par 71
    • Bentgrass/Poa Greens
    • Shotmaker’s course emphasizes driving accuracy , wedge play and putting
    • Plenty of birdies available at TPC Deere run
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, Birdie or Better %. SG: Off the Tee, Opportunities Gained, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Proximity (125-150), Driving Accuracy

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Daniel Berger (DK $11,100) – He’s the best golfer in the field and the only guy above $11K, so expectations are high – but Berger has played decent golf this year (T7 at the U.S. Open, T3 at the birdie-fest Byron Nelson). Scores could get as low as -20 this year and we’ll need birdie machines like Berger in our builds.

Sungjae Im (DK $10,700) – Im was making birdies last week and his game seems to perfectly fit this layout. He was T26 last year in his John Deere debut but I really think he’s a near lock for a Top 15 this week. I’m not a guy who uses him a lot in PGA DFS, but this is the right week to give him a shot.

Brian Harman ($10,400) – The lefty has been inside the Top 20 in seven of his last eight tournaments – or every time he’s made the cut in that stretch (MC at PGA Championship). Harman won at TPC Deere Run in 2014, and he’s 5-for-7 overall at this venue with four Top 25 finishes.

Russell Henley (DK $9,900) – Henley should have no trouble this week in Illinois and he’s my pick to win even though Harman and Berger are a little more popular. He finished solo second in 2019 and comes in under the $10K price tag threshold in PGA DFS.

Also consider: Cam Davis, Kevin Streelman, Kevin Na (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Si Woo Kim (DK $9,100) – If Si Woo is finding fairways this week we could see him showing off some of his “go-low” abilities. I could see him firing an opening round 62 and taking the early lead, so keep him in mind for first round leader.

Seamus Power (DK $9,000) – Power is coming off a solid putting week and he’s 3-for-3 at the John Deere Classic with two top 25s. The price is a little bit higher than we’re used to, but in this field he’s easily one of the better talents, especially on the greens.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,900) – He’s a GPP pick only for the reasons Sia laid out in his Initial Picks article – mainly his ability to rack up birdies and eagles when he’s finding fairways. He and Si Woo are both risk-reward plays on a course that is relatively easy to tackle.

Maverick McNealy (DK $8,800) – McNealy fits the bill as a birdie-maker with incredible upside, and this could be the year he breaks through at the John Deere (T44 in 2018). There’s always the chance he fades over the weekend and finishes outside the Top 15, but I like his chances of posting a Top 10 this week.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,500) – ZJ has a glorious history at the JDC, with four top 5 finishes in his past seven trips and a win way back in 2012. His form leaves a bit to be desired, but he’s less of a risk in PGA DFS here at a venue he loves.

Doc Redman (DK $8,200) – Redman is another risky golfer who feels like feast or famine in DFS. Last week he was in my player pool and missed the cut, so we’ll go right back to the well and hope his putter does its job this week.

Dylan Frittelli (DK $7,800) – When Frittelli won here in 2019, he played the weekend bogey-free 65-64 to win by two strokes. He’s struggled more on courses where you can make big scores, so I expect a big rebound this week (his form has not been great) and a possible Top 15.

Also consider: Alex Noren, Hank Lebioda (GPP), Ryan Moore, Beau Hossler, Pat Perez, Richy Werenski

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Chez Reavie (DK $7,500) – We shouldn’t spend a ton of time in the lower $7K range this week, because there’s an easy path to avoiding most of these riskier golfers, but we have to consider Reavie, who checks all the boxes this week at this venue. It’s always about timing with Reavie, and even though he missed the cut last week his overall form has been good.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,300) – Norlander seems to make a lot of sense for TPC Deere Run, because he’s not very long, but he’s accurate off the tee and solid T2G. There’s always risk with the guy, but I like the price and his ability to fare well in this weaker field.

Ryan Armour (DK $7,100) – Sia and Joel gave him the vote of confidence in the Breakdown and while he hasn’t had much success at this venue yet, we’ve seen plenty of golfers go from missing the cut (both in the week before and the year before) to contending.

Satoshi Kodaira (DK $7,000) – Throw out last week’s stumble and the form is staggering. He’s essentially a $8K golfer priced at $7K, so I’m buying in all formats, including single entry. The guy loves Bentgrass and he’s got Top 10 upside.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,900) – Schenk seems priced a little low for his upside as well, and Sia likes his 100-1 longshot status as an outright bet. There’s a few guys in the “last piece for your GPP” range under $7K here, and he’s probably the best of them.

John Huh (DK $6,800) – Huh gets the nod for his course history and the fact that he’ll be off most people’s radar. But in a weak field like this, it’s not bad time to bet on a resurgence, especially on Bentgrass.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,700) – I often play Burgoon on birdie fest courses, and we get a nice discount in a weak field here despite a T17 at the last real birdie fest he played in – the AT&T Byron Nelson. You hope for a made cut and two super low rounds, which he can do.

More value golfers to consider: Patrick Rodgers, Scott Stallings, Vaughn Taylor, Tyler Duncan, Roger Sloan, Sam Ryder, Ben Martin (GPP), Andrew Landry (GPP), Scott Brown (GPP), Wes Roach (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,400) – I’ll keep using him in this price range because of his putting ability, and this sorter course should give him more of a chance than the longer tracks.

Michael Kim (DK $6,100) – He’s a former winner here and he loves both the venue and the putting surface. He’s missed a lot of cuts but he’s the best $6,100 golfer I see down here. He’s worth using in one out of 20 GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Adam Long, Bill Haas, Bo Van Pelt, Chase Seiffert, Josh Teator, Brian Gay

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