One of the first things I look at when trying to find targetable props on PrizePicks is to see what some of the SportsBooks have these players at. FanDuel currently has a line of 291.5 passing yards for Burrow. We are essentially getting Burrow at a 9 yard discount on PrizePicks today. This 282.5 yard prop is one that Burrow should have no trouble hitting today.
He’s crushed this number 3 out of his last 4 games. Last week vs. Tennessee he went for close to 350 yards. We also saw Josh Allen shred this defense in the fourth quarter. While the addition of Tyrann Mathieu should help Chiefs secondary today, I’m still going to go with the Over on this one as I think this game turns into a shootout similar to last week.
Patrick Mahomes – 283.5 Passing Yards
What can’t Mahomes do at this point? While Mahomes is a special quarterback during the regular season, what he does in the playoffs is on a whole different level. So far in the 2022 playoffs Mahomes has thrown for 404 and 378 passing yards. He’s on a mission and I just don’t see the Bengals secondary being able to slow him down.
Although the Bengals were able to hold Tannehill to just 220 passing yards last weekend, they did give up over 300 yards to Derek Carr the weekend before in the Wild Card game. If Carr can do it, I see no scenario where Mahomes doesn’t. Look for Mahomes to crush his 283.5-yard prop.
Joe Mixon – 51.5 Rushing Yards
This is the one I’m least confident of if we’re being honest. I’m going to side with the over, but I can definitely see a case where he is under this prop. If the Bengals have any hope of winning today they’ll need to own the ground game and use up as much of the clock as possible. This would lead to Mixon having a solid game on the ground.
Mixon has hit this number 3 out of the last 5 weeks. Last week he rushed for 54 yards. In the 2 weeks he didn’t hit the number, he was still within a handful of yards of hitting. I like the Over on this one but wouldn’t blame you for going Under.
Ja’Marr Chase – 84.5 Receiving Yards
Chase continues to just dominate teams. Will he be this week’s Gabriel Davis and shred the Chiefs secondary? There’s a good chance of it. If we look at what Chase has done over the last 5 weeks, it’s pretty incredible. We can throw out the meaningless game against the Browns. I
n the other 4 games he’s broken 200 yards once and 100 yards in the other 3 teams. I love Burrow’s Over number today and a big part of it will due to the play of Chase. PrizePicks is giving us an 84.5-yard prop today. I’m confident in saying that Chase blows this away today.
Travis Kelce – 70.5 Yards
While Tyreek Hill has the breakaway speed and big-play mantra, it’s Kelce who is the steady Eddie of the 2. Kelce was targeted 9 times last week and caught 8 of them for 96 yards. Where Kelce goes, Mahomes goes. With Mahomes expected to have another monster playoff performance today, expect Kelce to be a big part of it. Kelce has hit this number 3 of the last 5 weeks. Look for him to make it 4 of 6 today. I’m siding with the Over on this one too.
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Good luck and hope to see some green screens today!
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New to the DFS writing world but have been playing DFS since BVP was cool. Started play season long fantasy when sporting news was used to calculate weekly scores. Originally from Brooklyn, NY but now a Baltmore resident.