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Tonight’s Thursday night match up should be one of the better TNF games of the year. We have a battle between the AFC West leading Kansas City Chiefs (9-4) and the team right behind them in the standings, the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5). A win by the Chargers tonight and the two teams are tied In the standings. A win by the Chiefs and they open up a commanding 2 game lead with just 3 to play. This battle tonight brings us a matchup between 2 of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
Let’s dig in and see if the we can find some Monkey Knight Fight games we can win.
More or Less – 3.6x Payout
Justin Herbert – 289.5 Passing Yards – Less
On the year Justin Herbert has been brilliant. The 23-year old QB has thrown for over 3,800 yards and after tonight should get to the 4,000 passing yard mark. If we take a look at the 289 yards that Monkey Knight Fight has given us tonight, he’s gotten to that number 7 times this year. In fact, all 7 of those times he threw for over 300 yards.
With that said, Chiefs defense has been playing much better of late. They haven’t given up more than 270 yards passing since week 5 against the Bills and were able to hold Derek Carr under 265 twice during the last 4 weeks. Yes, the same Derek Carr that is second to only Tom Brady for passing yards this season. With the Chiefs secondary being tough of late, I’m going to go w/ the Less on this prop.
Patrick Mahomes – 287.5 Passing Yards – More
In looking at the Chargers defense, they’ve been a little more inconsistent than the Chiefs. Over the last 5 weeks the Chargers have given up more than 290 yards twice and both were to stand out quarterbacks in Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow. If we look at 2 of their better games during that 5 game stretch, they were against Teddy Bridgewater and Mike Glennon. Not quite guys that jump out at you when you think upper echelon of NFL quarterbacks.
In a game that should be closer than any game the Chiefs have had in a number of weeks my gut tells me that the game script will call for Mahomes to throw the ball a little more than he’s had to recently. While the 287.5 yards that Monkey Knight Fight is giving us is high tonight, I do think that Mahomes gets there tonight. I’m siding with the More on this one.
Rapid Fire – 3x Payout
Justin Herbert vs. Patrick Mahomes (+2.5 passing yards)
I’ve highlighted in the More or Less section that I think only one of these quarterbacks hits their Monkey Knife Fight target tonight. With that being Patrick Mahomes and both targets being very close, I’m siding with Mahomes on the Rapid Fire tonight.
Tyreek Hill vs. Keenan Allen (+5.5 receiving yards)
With both quarterbacks expected to air it out tonight, this should be a fun matchup that Monkey Knife Fight has given us between Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen. Both guys have been extremely solid this year. Allen has 929 receiving yards through 12 games and Hill has 1,030 through 13. So we know we have 2 guys that have sky’s the limit potential. I’m going to side with Hill on this one tonight.
I don’t think there is another player in the NFL with the upside that Hill has. His game logs in the last couple of games look rough. But those logs have more to do w/ game script than it does with Hill. The Chiefs were winning convincingly in both of their recent games and the need just wasn’t there for Hill. Tonight should be a closer matchup and Hill will be more of an active participant if the Chiefs have any hope of winning. Monkey Knife Fight is giving Allen an extra 5.5 yards tonight but I don’t’ think it will matter. I’m siding with Hill on this one.
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New to the DFS writing world but have been playing DFS since BVP was cool. Started play season long fantasy when sporting news was used to calculate weekly scores. Originally from Brooklyn, NY but now a Baltmore resident.