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NFL DFS

NFL DraftKings/FanDuel DFS Quarterback Plays Week 6

Joe DiCarlo 3 years ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

Our Discord has been lit up with screenshots so green you would think it was St. Patrick’s Day in October! The NFL from week to week has been throwing us curve balls left and right but our projection model keeps us from falling off a DFS cliff. The bye weeks have arrived, so the slates will begin to shrink from here on in, and as the player pools tighten up we need to be even more creative. Only 11 games on the main slate this weekend but we have plenty of QBs on the menu. As usual, you can tag me @jdicarlo78 or anyone else in the crew at WinDaily in our expert chat on Discord for any help…let’s keep the grind going and break down our Week 6 QBs!

Let’s check out our NFL Week 6 DFS Quarterbacks!

Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) / Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel)

In a rematch of one of the most thrilling AFC Divisional games on record, last year’s shootout between the Bills and Chiefs features two of the best quarterbacks in the game today. Take your pick, it’s a lay-up here and you can’t go wrong either way. Allen and Mahomes need no explanation and have both been red-hot, each coming off of 4-touchdown pass performances. They will continue to air it out in Week 6, but keep in mind Buffalo lost that divisional playoff game by a coin toss, which could be fermenting in Josh Allen’s head all year. I would lean more his way on Sunday.

Kyler Murray ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel)

With a losing record at 2-3, Murray will crush it at home facing the Seahawks, who rank 25th in DVOA for quarterbacks. Seattle also sags at 30th in DVOA for rushing, and with a banged-up James Connor and Darrel Williams, Murray himself may have to pick up the slack with his legs too. Murray has quietly been a stud all season for fantasy, even producing value in 4th quarter-garbage time. Totally safe spot here for cash, and he’ll save you some cap space to pay up elsewhere in your lineups.

Tom Brady ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)

The guy’s been in the business for over 20 years and really needs no introduction. The GOAT is in the “Steel City” for Week 6 and will look to keep the momentum moving in that direction. Pittsburgh’s pass coverage was put on blast last week, Buffalo’s Josh Allen threw 4 touchdowns…by halftime. So we have Brady again at a discount in a juicy matchup for the second week in a row. Tampa’s O-line is still a bit shaky but we can rest easy on Brady, who like a surgeon will dissect the Steelers’ secondary that is ranked 27th in DVOA.

Kirk Cousins ($6,000 Draftkings/$7,600 FanDuel)

Not only will Kirky be soaking in some rays while sipping a mai tai in Florida, but he’ll also be picking apart the injury-ridden Miami defense. Corners Nick Needham and Xavien Howard have been struggling to keep up with receivers (30th in DVOA) as they await the return of Byron Jones, who has yet to make his season debut. Miami’s rushing defense also got gashed by the Jets last week (230 total yards/2 touchdowns to running backs). If Minnesota can get Dalvin Cook going early, Cousins will flourish in play-action and crush his mid-range price tag this week.

Geno Smith ($5,700 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel)

Russell who? Smith has caught the entire league off-guard with his top-notch leadership and efficiency on the field. He currently leads the NFL in completion percentage (75%) with a rating of 113.2. And they were not all cupcake matchups either, beating Denver at home and recently going toe to toe in N’Orleans putting up 24 fantasy points. At this point in the season, we can’t sleep on Smith and his production. Because of Seattle’s invisible defense, he finds himself playing at full throttle for 4 quarters. Geno will be in another smash spot for Week 6 at Arizona, who have allowed over 1,300 air yards and 8 touchdowns for 5 games.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week DFS Quarterbacks article for Week 6. There will be tons of content covering each position all week, cash games and tournaments, and plenty of articles, videos, and podcasts so check in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be up on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning live stream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news. Hit me up in our Discord chat or on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 always here to help fellas and keep the green screens coming!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 6 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Last week was a rough one for the Tight End position. Two of my guys ended up being ruled OUT late in the week. Taysom Hill (even HE doesn’t know if he is a TE) scored FOUR times, then Travis Kelce posted a quad score game on Monday night. I’d be willing to wager that no TE scores four times this week, let alone two…BUT we have some really juicy matchups this week. Let’s dig in for Week 6!

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 6 on FanDuel and DraftKings! After this week, we are officially one-third of the way through the NFL regular season!

Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

It seems like it has been forever since we could roster Kelce on the main slate, but he’s back for Week 6! His price has skyrocketed, and deservedly so. He was a touchdown machine on Monday night, but managed only seven catches for 25 yards on eight targets. He has now posted 24+ DraftKings points in three of five games.

The Bills are allowing under eight fantasy points per game to opposing Tight Ends in 2022. Travis Kelce cares very little for matchup. He has had plenty of success against the Bills, posting lines of 8/96/1, 6/57/1, and 5/65/2 in their last three matchups. No surprise here, but Kelce leads the NFL in Red Zone targets with 14.

He seems like a smart fade in tournaments, as his ownership should be through the roof. That said, a full fade for an MME player could be tough to swallow. I’m also never going to tell you not to play Mark Andrews, but you didn’t come here for me to tell you to roster all the most expensive players.

Will Dissly, Seahawks ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)

Hear me out. Dissly is dirt cheap, and has been a sneaky source of value this season. His DraftKings totals have been mostly solid: 13.3, 2.0, 12.4, 13.9, 4.1. He has yet to see more than four targets in a game in 2022, but has found the end zone three times in five games.

His matchup this week is one of the better ones, as Arizona ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to opposing TE. Only the Buffalo/Kansas City has a higher total in Week 6 than the 51.5 in this one. Dissly doesn’t have immense upside, but he is a solid source of value.

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

Remember this guy? I hate to sound like a broken record, but volume is king. Off the top of your head, how many TE have more targets than Ertz (37) over the last four weeks? Give up? The answer is one. Mark Andrews (39). Tyler Higbee also has 37 over that span, but I want no part of the disaster that is the Rams offense.

Back to our main man Ertz. While Zach has only bested 50 yards receiving once this season, a site like DraftKings that has full-point PPR is the perfect spot. He has scored in double-digits every week of the season. Did I mention that the Seahawks are allowing TWENTY-SIX fantasy points per game to opposing TE? That’s one spot worse, but a full seven points worse than the aforementioned Cardinals. I don’t hate the idea of throwing both him and Dissly into some lineups this weekend.

David Njoku, Browns ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

I feel like Njoku is a player who will be criminally underowned this week. The Patriots have allowed more TD to opposing TE (5) than any team not named the Raiders. Njoku has been a tremendous asset for the surprisingly efficient Browns offense. Check out his last three games:

9/89/1 (10 targets)

5/73 (7)

6/88 (6)

He has been remarkably consistent, and not only are the Patriots 8th in the NFL against the run, but we all know Bill Belichick. He will be selling out to stop the best RB duo on the planet in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Njoku is my GPP special of the week.

Hayden Hurst, Bengals ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)

This play is partially contingent on the status of Tee Higgins, but Hurst is an option even if Tee is a full go. The Bengals offense has struggled overall, but Hurst has been a bright spot the last two weeks. He has seen 11 targets over that span, totaling 9/80/2. He seems to have built a solid rapport with Joe Burrow, and I’m expecting that to continue here.

The Saints have allowed just seven fantasy points per game to opposing TE, but they haven’t exactly faced a gauntlet. Hurst doesn’t have massive upside here, but he should continue to have an important role in this offense.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 6, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 6 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

Will Dissly, Seahawks ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel)

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)

David Njoku, Browns ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

9/89/1 (10 targets)

5/73 (7)

6/88 (6)

Hayden Hurst, Bengals ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 6, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 5 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Coming into 2022, the AFC West was pegged as the deepest division in the NFL where all four teams had a chance at a Super Bowl run. Well, through four weeks, only Kansas City looks up to the task. However, Las Vegas has shown some potential in the early going, and we could have a good battle on our hands on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are favored by 7 in this one with a juicy total around 52 points. After a few defensive battles in prime time recently, this one looks primed to be a shootout. Let’s find an edge.

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Captain/MVP Plays

Davante Adams, Raiders ($17,100 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel)

Adams has at least 100 yards and/or a touchdown in all four games this season. Derek Carr will need his old college teammate to step up big in this one if the Raiders are going to have a shot. Adams has 17, 7, 10, and 13 targets since joining the Silver and Black.

The Chiefs have been very vulnerable against the pass in 2022, ranking 26th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR. The Raiders have the 6th-highest pass rate this season, and will likely be playing catch up in this one. While Aaron Rodgers may be crying himself to sleep without Adams, you can (and should) have him on your squad while Rodgers smokes his ayahuasca to deal with separation anxiety.

If this one is high scoring, there is a very good chance Adams is one of, if not the top scorer overall. The best chance to be top dog outside of Adams? This one will be a shocker…

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($18,000 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)

I know, I know. You’ve heard this old song and dance before. Mahomes is very expensive, but the opportunity cost to not have any exposure may just be even more expensive. His last two games against the Raiders?

20/24, 258 yards, 2 TD

35/50, 406 yards, 5 TD

For his career? 22/3 TD/INT, 2,546 yards in eight games. It’s safe to say that Mahomes dominates the Raiders. While this Raiders team is significantly improved from recent years, Mahomes is still…Mahomes. His ceiling is enormous. I don’t necessarily see him as a must-play in this one, but if you’re are doing MME, a fade would be ludicrous.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs ($11,100 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)

Listen, I’m not the biggest fan of CEH. That doesn’t matter here, as the matchup and implied game script SCREAMS value for the former LSU Tiger. He saw a season-high 56 snaps in Week 4, and also a season-high with 21 opportunities.

The Raiders have been beatable on the ground, allowing nearly 27 fantasy points per game to opposing RB. I think the running games in this one could have sneaky value, and CEH has played himself into an elite role in this offense. He has scored 14+ DraftKings points in every game this season, and there is no reason to believe he can’t do it again in this one.

He is a safe play regardless of game script, but has a higher ceiling than you may realize.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Josh Jacobs, Raiders ($13,200 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

You see how I pointed out the vulnerability of the Raiders defense against the run? Well, guess what? Kansas City has allowed more catches to opposing RB (40) than any other team in the NFL in 2022. Much of that is game-script dependent, as they have carried large leads in all but one contest thus far.

This bodes very well for Jacobs, who has become the workhorse once again. Better yet? He has 10 catches on 11 targets over the last two weeks. He played on 89% of the snaps in Week 4, bested only by Saquon Barkley. The Raiders know they need his production, and his value has gone through the roof.

Jacobs had 33 touches last week. You read that correctly. THIRTY. THREE. While that type of volume is very unlikely in any given game, the Raiders know they can rely on him, and he responded in a monster way with 37.5 DraftKings points. He is absolutely viable in the bonus spot as well. His work in the passing game of late has solidified his value and upside regardless of game script.

Hunter Renfrow, Raiders ($5,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)

Before you ask, yes, Renfrow returning from a two-game absence will take a few opportunities away from Jacobs. That said, Renfrow was one of the most consistent performers in the NFL in 2021. The signing of Adams put a damper on his upside, but he remains one of the more consistent WR in the NFL.

He had 10 catches on 16 targets for 80 yards over the first two weeks. Those numbers don’t stand out at all, but the volume does. In a game with massive point potential, I’m a believer in Renfrow. If you’re Kansas City, who are you focusing on stopping at the goal line? Adams, Jacobs, and Darren Waller, right?

Adams obviously was in Green Bay in 2021, but Renfrow posted a 13/117/1 line against Kansas City in their last matchup. Don’t be shocked if he steals a touchdown or two in this one, and to quote the great Borat, his price is “VERY NICE”.

Marques Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs ($5,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

The most frustrating thing in all of fantasy sports, ESPECIALLY on showdown slates, is a nagging injury. Well, JuJu Smith-Schuster is dealing with a hamstring/quad injury. If you or someone you know has ever experienced a hamstring injury, you may be entitled to financial compensation. If you choose to roster JuJu tonight and his injury flares up (or he plays TWO snaps as a precaution like Tee Higgins last night), YOU may be entitled to financial compensation. But you won’t get it. You’ll just lose.

For those reasons, I’m out on JuJu, and inserting MVS into my lineups. He has had a healthy, but not extreme role in this offense, and if JuJu is limited in any way, he could eat. The Raiders are 21st in the league against opposing WR, and he could be the default #1 out wide if JuJu is less than 100%.

Other Options

I’m not on Darren Waller here…there are too many mouths to feed in this offense, and Kansas City has allowed less than 50 yards per game to opposing TE. That’s my key fade. The other TE, you’ve probably heard of him, Travis Kelce? He is always in play. You don’t need an explanation there.

Some values to consider are Isaac Pacheco, who has been extremely game-script dependent this season. In games where the Chiefs have won by more than one score he has 12 and 11 carries respectively. In close games? He has 2.5 per game. If you think KC wins this one handily, you’ll need some shares.

Skyy Moore not only has one of the coolest names in the NFL, but he also has elite tools. He finally saw some volume last week (2/31 on four targets), and is dirt cheap. Jody Fortson is almost FREE on DraftKings. He has two games with zero catches…and two games with exactly one catch for one touchdown. True zero floor, but won’t kill you if you’re jamming studs into your lineup.

Finally, Dylan Carlson is just a machine. 12/12 on the season and his consistency is second to none. He makes for a fine filler on this slate.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 5 Showdown SNF DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

As the self-proclaimed biggest Cincinnati Bengals fan in the universe (for the record, the relationship has been EXTREMELY abusive over the last 30+ years), I can’t wait for this game. Not only are Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson two of the best QBs in the game, they are also two of the best personalities in the NFL. These two teams combined to score 58 and 62 points in their two meetings last season. Remember when Burrow set the NFL record for most passing yards against a single team in a season against these Ravens in 2021? Ok, that’s enough about Joe for now. Back to him soon. Let’s find the upside in this one.

Captain/MVP Plays

Joe Burrow, Bengals ($15,900 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)

Dictionary.com defines a masterpiece as “a consummate example of skill or excellence of any kind”. I can tell you with 100% certainty that phrase is in DIRECT reference to what Joe Burrow did to this Ravens team in 2021. If you are unaware, I am more than happy to present you with the numbers:

23/38, 416 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

37/46, 525 yards, 4 TD

While it may be unwise to expect that type of production again, Burrow has an enormous ceiling here. Only the Raiders, Dolphins, and Lions have allowed more fantasy PPG to opposing QB this season. Burrow and the Bengals have been right at the league average with a 60% pass rate on offense. The Ravens have allowed almost 1000 yards to opposing WR alone.

This rivalry has become personal, and “Smokin’ Joe” is ready to fire up a stogie again.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($18,300 DraftKings, $17,000 FanDuel)

Listen, you can call me a homer whenever you want, but there is a reality in this one. The Bengals have been tough against the run in 2022. They have very solid safety play with Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell. The CB play has been solid. This sounds like Lamar hate. Trust me, it isn’t. I’m getting there. Here’s an interesting stat from Warren Sharp (@sharpfootball):

Lamar Jackson 2022 splits with Rashod Bateman on or off the field :

Bateman ON the field (81 att): +0.14 EPA/att, 8.8 YPA, 9 TD, 1 INT

Bateman OFF the field (36 att): -0.18 EPA/att, 4.9 YPA, 2 TD, 3 INT

Lamar will have to put the world on his shoulders in this one with Marquise Brown thriving in Arizona and Bateman already ruled OUT for this one. Running the ball is certainly an option if the game is close, especially with Cincinnati still missing DJ Reader. Lamar is priced like someone who will be expected to shoulder the entire offense load, and he is as capable as anyone of doing it.

Lamar is averaging over 32 DraftKings PPG this season, and that is INCLUDING last week against Buffalo where he totaled just 15.06. He has rushed for 119, 107, and 73 yards in his last three games. If this game turns into a shootout, no Lamar could mean no cash.

JaMarr Chase, Bengals ($16,500 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

There are two types of people in this world.

Person 1: People like you and I, who watched and saw JaMarr pull off an insane spin move at full speed during a TD against these Ravens.

Person 2: People who are in denial about the sheer greatness that is JaMarr Chase. Much like fellow sports legend Ricky Bobby, Chase wakes up in the morning and pisses excellence. He averaged 163 yards per game against the Ravens during his spectacular rookie campaign.

I can’t guarantee you a certain number of fantasy points for Chase here, but I can guarantee you one thing. The relationship between JaMarr Chase and Joe Burrow has lasted longer than most of the relationships you or I have ever or will ever have.

Only Marquise Brown has had more offensive snaps than Chase in 2022. Only six WR have had more targets through Week 4 than Chase’s 41.

The bad? He hasn’t reached the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings since Week 1. He only has two scores on the season.

The good? He also has the 4th-most red zone targets among WR and the 2nd-most targets inside the 10. The breakout game is coming, and what better time than a divisional battle against a Ravens secondary that is allowing 50, yes FIFTY, fantasy PPG to opposing WR in 2022?

If you don’t play JaMarr on Sunday night, you may need a miracle to chase down a GPP.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Devin Duvernay, Ravens ($5,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

As mentioned above, Rashod Bateman won’t be suiting up Sunday Night. Duvernay led the Ravens’ WRs with 45 snaps last week, and someone is going to have to pick up the slack here. I’m expecting plenty of points in this one, and Lamar needs some support from his wideouts for once.

Duvernay had a season-high five targets last week, and has already found the end zone three times in 2022. I like him quite a bit here. Added bonus? He returns kicks and is one of the best in the game at doing it. His ceiling is even higher than you may think.

J.K. Dobbins, Ravens ($7,000 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel)

Listen, I’ve seen people on Twitter saying that you’re chasing points with Dobbins in this one, but I’ll respectfully disagree. He has been on the field for 36 passing snaps since he returned in Week 3, and has run a route on 28 of them. He had 13 of the 22 carries by a Ravens RB, and should be a focal point of the offense here once again. I already mentioned the absence of DJ Reader, and the Bengals may be missing him in a major way on Sunday night if Dobbins gets going.

Joe Mixon, Bengals ($8,800 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)

This could be the Skyline Chili fan in me, but I do believe that the Bengals win this game handily. If that is the case, the Bengals will turn to Mixon to slam the door shut. Baltimore is 22nd in the NFL in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing RB. Mixon is a workhorse who has seen more snaps at RB than any player not named Saquon Barkley. He is viable in the bonus spot too, so don’t forget about him if you are doing MME.

I’ll never try to talk you out of playing my dude Tee Higgins, but I can’t just list the most expensive guys across the board. Tee has shown that he is as good as any WR in the game and we all know how suspect this Baltimore secondary has become.

I’ll go ahead and give you my fade of the night. Mark Andrews. In his last two games against the Bengals with Lamar Jackson on the field, he has totaled 7/75. Of course he could explode at any time, but I’m betting on Logan Wilson and company to focus on taking him out of the game. I’m not saying it will be a complete shut down, but I’m taking my chances on him not paying off a high price tag. Leverage play for me.

Other Options

Tyler Boyd has 5+ targets in three of four games this season, and Hayden Hurst has 7+ in two games. In a shootout, they are cheap pieces to consider.

Gimme some Cincinnati defense here. I could see a performance much like the 49ers vs. Rams we took advantage of last week.

Demarcus Robinson saw nearly 40 snaps last week, and Lamar could send a few extra looks his way this week with Bateman out.

In case you didn’t know, Justin Tucker and Evan McPherson may just be the two best kickers underneath the sun. I’m fairly certain either one of them could kick a ball “over them mountains”, Uncle Rico style too. You’re going to want some exposure to these two.

Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 5 NFL DFS GPP Lineups

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” Hopefully everyone is safe from the Hurricane and ready to decompress with some NFL football! The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a potential splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat (all of which are in the cash game article).

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD)

This is one of the few games with a higher total that I actually believe can go relatively back-and-forth. Both teams play at a high tempo and both teams have healthy, explosive playmakers. I really cannot say that for many of the games on this slate. I’m rolling out Hurts in all formats with the expectation this is a ceiling type of game in the dome for Jalen Hurts.

Stacking Options: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore, James Conner

Andy Dalton ($5,200 DK / $6,500 FD)

Similar to Jalen Hurts in the Eagles @ Philadelphia, the Seahawks @ Saints is one of the few games on this slate I truly believe have “game-stack ability”. Quite frankly, this is a week where I’m not too focused on correlation but more so pivots against the heavy chalk running backs. In terms of value, the AETY Model grades Andy Dalton as the #1 value quarterback on the slate and that makes a lot of sense as Seattle has been getting carved by all passing attacks, including a decimated Detroit Lions offense last week.

As long as Seattle can stay in this game (I have very little doubt that they will), this game offers the NFL DFS GPP players a sneaky shootout.

Stacking Options: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara
Run-Back Options: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Rashaad Penny

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,200 DK / $8,900 FD)

Derrick Henry is quietly heating up and the ownership has yet to flock his way. The best thing about Derrick Henry right now is that he’s received a 23% target share in the passing attack over the past two weeks. With no Treylon Burks, this offense will (and always has) run through Derrick Henry. It’s not the best matchup in the world, but when Henry gets hot, he gets scorching hot. Outside of no more Taylor Lewan, this offensive line is healthy and ready to roll.

Nick Chubb ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD)

The Chargers are currently giving up almost five and a half yards per carry. With a 3-5% owned Nick Chubb, what else do you need me to say? This game should be a bit more back-and-forth than people think and Vegas agrees, as we currently have a 47-point total. As always, our concerns with Nick Chubb on DraftKings is that he doesn’t catch passes, so if you’re rostering Chubb, you’re investing in the script that he goes for over 100 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns… which is certainly possible anytime Chubb steps on the field.

Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD)

A sub-5% owned Sanders against a dreadful Arizona defense. As everyone looks for the “safer” plays at this price-point (Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Williams, and Alvin Kamara), the NFL DFS GPP community is completely overlooking Miles Sanders. The AETY Model has Miles Sanders as the 7th best running back value on this slate and the ownership projections have Sanders as the 20th rostered running back. I’ll take that edge on the DFS field all day long and ensure myself a piece of every touchdown for the Eagles via Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders.

James Robinson ($6,300 DK / $8,000 FD)

In the same tier as Miles Sanders is James Robinson. Robinson is a significant value on DraftKings specifically but in play on FanDuel as well. I’m currently seeing ownership projections at 2-3% for the lead back of the Jaguars, at home, going up against the Texans run defense that grades 29th in DVOA. This is an absolute smash spot and extreme leverage off of a 20% owned stack of Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk. Let’s ride my alma mater’s best running back in James Robinson!

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, James Conner

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Honestly, DraftKings made a lot of questionable price-tags this week and I really do like the chalk wide receivers from the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown. My thought there is to use the obvious high-upside values and get different at the running back position above. Here are some other wide receivers I’m interested in rostering pending the lineup construction:

Stefon Diggs
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill (stacked up with Teddy Bridgewater and Jaylen Waddle if Tyreek is healthy)
Deebo Samuel (crazy low ownership for the highest floor and arguably highest upside at the position and nice pivot off of Jeff Wilson chalk)
AJ Brown / DeVonta Smith (weekly pick on Marco Wilson matchup and easy stack with Hurts)
Marquise Brown (sub 5% due to the field being scared of the potential Darius Slay shadow)
Adam Thielen (1% owned, high-upside against the worst secondary in the NFL)
Terry McLaurin / Curtis Samuel (no Jahan Dotson and a matchup against the 2nd worst secondary in the NFL)
George Pickens
Khalil Shakir (significant sneaky value and excellent coverage matchup IF Isaiah McKenzie is OUT)

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

To be as transparent as possible, I’ll be using a TON of O.J. Howard ($2,600 DK / $4,500 FD) due to the savings offered and coverage thoughts from the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown. I understand if that is not in your appetite but I’m really trying to pay up at Quarterback/Wide Receiver/Defense (yes, Defense) and get different at the running back position. Howard is scary as hell to roster at a high clip, but he opens up a lot for my builds when there really isn’t any tight-end on the slate that I worry will score 20+ points.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, David Njoku, Gerald Everett

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

A little bit of a mixed bag last week, but still plenty of green screens in the Discord for cash. I personally lost most of my cash games due to the Javonte Williams injury. I stand by the play in Javonte and my model’s expected output for him, but it certainly may have been “too cute” in cash, as I could have just ate the Jamaal Williams chalk and went double Lion (Hockenson). Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but there was just no way I’d go against my roots and play a double Lion stack in cash (especially when their whole team was injured). Nonetheless, we’re on to Week 5 NFL DFS cash games.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 5, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, plenty of value at the running back position
Very thin QB pool on the main slate yet again in Week 5. Don’t miss on QB!
Injury and weather concerns look clean this week. We should be good to go!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Per the theme of my 2022 NFL DFS cash game lineups, I’ll be focused on the top tier Quarterbacks yet again. I will not go below the $6K range on DK at Quarterback this week and will be locked in on one of the following:

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)

You know what you’re getting with Josh Allen on a weekly basis. The floor is arguably higher than anyone on the slate every single week. My only concern this week is the legit blowout potential this game has to offer as the Bills are a two-touchdown favorite at home against rookie, Kenny Pickett. We likely will not see a full on Josh Allen fantasy output like we’re used to, but the floor is high enough to lock in 2.5x value at a minimum.

Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD)

What do we even need to say about Jalen Hurts? He’s averaging over 27 NFL DFS points per game and is locked in this week with a cake matchup against a struggling Arizona defense (28th in pass defense DVOA). I do have a hard time seeing how Arizona keeps it close, but the pace in this game should be an up-tempo, back-and-forth gamescript that keeps Jalen Hurts’ foot on the gas for all four quarters.

Tom Brady ($6,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

Insanely cheap on DraftKings and likely to be over 40% owned in NFL DFS cash games on that site. On FanDuel, Brady is still certainly in play. Most sportsbook are projecting Brady for over 2 passing touchdowns and the AETY Model Agrees. Atlanta’s defense as a whole has been a problem all season long and this matchup at home for Brady just screams the narrative of a Brady blowup game. Take the value on Brady if you’re not into paying up for the dual-threat Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts’s of the world.

NFL DFS Running Backs

Leonard Fournette ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD)

Fournette has certainly been struggling on the ground over the past two weeks but the RB1 role is still solely his to lose as he’s logged 78% of the Tampa Bay rushing attempts since Week 2. Like Brady, this is a fantastic matchup for Fournette against the Falcons’ 26th ranked run defense (DVOA). The Bucs currently have a team total over 28 points and getting the lead running back with significant red-zone equity is something I’ll be locking in.

Jamaal Williams ($6,500 DK / $8,300 FD)

I’ll likely not get up to Jamaal Williams this week (especially on FanDuel at that price), but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings against the Patriots 31st ranked run defense in terms of DVOA. I do have concerns that Jamaal Williams is extremely touchdown dependent as he only logged 50% of the snaps last week, but the matchup and red-zone usage is enough to warrant going back to him in NFL DFS cash games.

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

Damn-near the freesquare cash game play at the running back position this week. The Panthers defense has been solid this year (especially against the run) but at this price, I’ll take the value for a 3-down running back who’s averaging over 17 touches per game since Eli Mitchell went on the IR.

Damien Harris ($5,600 DK / $7,200 FD) AND/OR Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,500 DK / $6,000 FD)

Yes, I’m okay if you happen to be bold enough to start both of the Patriots’ running backs this week. The Patriots will have Bailey Zappe under center again this week, so you know their game plan will be to lean on that #1 rushing offense (DVOA) against Detroit’s dead last rushing defense (32nd in DVOA). Over the past two weeks, Harris has averaged 16 touches per game, while Stevenson has average 17 touches per game. Despite the timeshare, these guys are getting modern day RB1 volume at ridiculously low price-tags for your NFL DFS lineups.

Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Dameon Pierce, James Robinson, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Allgeier (only if you really need the savings)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,600 DK / $9,500 FD) / Justin Jefferson ($8,900 DK / $8,800 FD)

Pick your poison at the top of the wide receiver board if you can afford one of them.

Christian Kirk ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

Christian Kirk is quietly 10th in the NFL in target share. Everyone else on that list (outside of Diontae Johnson) is priced well above $7K on DraftKings. I’ll take the clear discount as this is a beautiful matchup for Kirk and this Jags’ offense as a whole, going up against the Texans’ defense that grades 27th in total defense DVOA. Kirk will see a lot of soft coverage from Desmond King and the rest of this Houston defense as they mainly run Cover-2 and Cover-3 zones. Advantage, Christian Kirk.

Chris Godwin ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)

Assuming Godwin’s health is good to go, this is clear mis-price as Godwin got the benefit of the late game on Sunday in Week 4 (after the pricing algorithms run). As discussed, this is prime blow-up spot for Brady and this Bucs’ offense as a whole. Throughout his career, Godwin has averaged the following against the Falcons:

7.1 targets per game
5.4 receptions per game
85 receiving yards per game
1 receiving touchdown per game

Keep in mind, most of those games were without Tom Brady under center. Godwin should absolutely smash his price-tag in Week 5 against the Falcons. If you have to go double-Buccaneer in cash this week, I’m okay with it as they have such a high team-total.

Chris Olave ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD)

Another clear pricing error as Olave will again lead the Saints’ wideouts in targets, air-yards, and red-zone targets at-home against the Seahawks 32nd ranked pass defense. All of these Seattle corners are stepping stones to another strong NFL DFS outing for the rookie standout.

Tyler Lockett ($5,600 DK / $6,800 FD)

On the other side of Olave, I’m extremely interested in getting the highest targeted wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks in Tyler Lockett. I’d love to play DK Metcalf, but I’ll take the savings on Lockett and avoid the likely Marshon Lattimore shadow that Metcalf will see. Lockett should have a field day against Bradley Roby and the struggling second year corner, Paulson Adebo.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Robert Woods, Rondale Moore

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews off the slate, I will not be prioritizing paying up at the tight-end position and based off of early ownership projections, the field won’t be paying up either. Here are some quick notes for my tight-end player pool:

Zach Ertz – nothing sexy, but a consistent target share which is more than we can say about most tight-ends on this NFL DFS slate. Philadelphia is a tough matchup for opposing tight-ends but the AETY Model projects Philadelphia to score at will, which should lead to a busy day in the middle for Zach Ertz.
Dallas Goedert – one of the most consistent and high-upside tight-ends on the slate going up against the 29th ranked defense at covering tight-ends (DVOA).
Tyler Higbee – Higbee is going to be the chalk tight-end on the slate. If you’re just trying to roll with the ownership, Higbee is your guy, but I certainly have my concerns. Higbee has been crushing against teams that blitz a lot and teams that play a lot of Cover-3 zone defense. The Cowboys will play a lot of man coverage and a lot of Cover-2 (advantage Cooper Kupp and potentially even Allen Robinson). I’m not sold this is a Higbee week in any way, shape, or form.
OJ Howard – If you need salary savings, look no further than OJ Howard. On paper, it’s gross but Brevin Jordan is likely OUT again, Jordan Akins has been going back and forth to the practice squad, and Pharaoh Brown is now on the Cleveland Browns. Howard logged 75% of the snaps last week for Houston and already has shown some of his red-zone upside this season.

He’s also 11th in the NFL for tight-end air yards (ahead of Tyler Higbee, David Njkoku, Irv Smith, etc.). The Jaguars defense will mainly run a Cover-3 zone and mix in a lot of blitz which should encourage Davis Mills to use those shorter ADOT route runners, like OJ Howard. At $2,600 on DraftKings, I’m in for the punt-play.

Honorable Mention: David Njoku

Defense / Special Teams

Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup (there are a lot in play this week pending your lineup construction):

Buffalo Bills
Tampa Bay Bucs
San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots to post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Jalen Hurts
Leonard Fournette
Christian Kirk
Chris Olave
OJ Howard

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACKS REPORT – WEEK 5 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a nice report card in Week 4 as we pumped out 4 of the top 6 RB’s last week. The best plays were Ekeler, Dameon Pierce and Jamaal Williams and the key in those games was attacking bad rushing defenses. We hit on some other plays as well as Christian McCaffrey showed up with a solid week and was only drafted in 1.44% of lineups.

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.

As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). I usually give you a core 4 and this week that is in Tier 2.

As for my strategy this week, my Tier 1 Running Backs is at a season low of 2 players. While I’ll still look to use a Tier 1 RB in some lineups, the primary ratio of lineups will have combinations from Tier 2 and Tier 3 as I see a ton of value below the $7K line this week (Draftkings).

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

NICK CHUBB $8000 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

Chubb is my favorite RB on the board this week and believe he is worth the price. Chubb is averaging almost 6 ypc and over 100 yards per game. He has 3 games with over 100 yards rushing this season and now he gets to face a defense that is ranked 30th against RB’s. The Chargers are allowing 110 yards per game rushing and are 18th in rushing defense DVOA. They allowed an average of 26.3 fantasy points to Dameon Pierce and James Robinson the past two weeks and now they get to face the NFL’s leading rusher. Count me in.

DALVIN COOK $7300 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

Dalvin Cook has not paid off for fantasy owners yet this season. He is once again battling an injury, in this case a shoulder injury. But he’s still seeing volume even when the running game isn’t there as witnessed last week versus NO (20 carries, 76 yards, long of 14). Which is good news for this week as he faces the Bears who are allowing a league high of 183 yards per game on the ground. Chicago has allowed a 100 yard game to an RB in 3 straight games (Aaron Jones, Dameon Pierce, and Saquon Barkley). So with the amount of volume that Cook is still seeing despite the low YPC, and the fact the Bears are dreadful against the run, this becomes an ideal spot to roster Cook.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

LEONARD FOURNETTE $6900 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Fournette only had 3 carries versus Kansas City but he excelled in the passing game by hauling in 7 catches and 1 TD. The game plan will change this week as the Bucs face the Falcons who allow 126 yards per game on the ground. Last year, Fournette averaged 84 scrimmage yards per game against the Falcons and had 11 catches. So I see a similar game plan from Tampa as they had in 2021, attack through the air early and end the game on the ground. With that in mind, we should see 50+ yards rushing and 3+ catches from Fournette which puts him at a floor of 10 fantasy points but a ceiling much higher.

JAMAAL WILLIAMS $6400 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel

De’Andre Swift is trending towards being ruled out again this week. Especially because the Lions have a bye in Week 6. If that happens, Williams will be in for another big week. New England is 5th best against RB’s this year. But that doesn’t tell the entire story. They are 26th in rushing yards allowed with 135.8 per game. And they are 31st in rushing defense DVOA. The Packers running duo of Jones and Dillon ran for 183 yards on 33 carries last week. I think there is value in Williams here and I would not be scared of the false rating that New England is carrying on DFS sites. The real numbers show this is a bad rush defense.

JAMES ROBINSON $6300 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

The Jags RB has one of the best matchups on the slate this week. The Houston Texans are 32nd against RB’s. And they allow the second most rushing yards per game at 172 ypg. Robinson had a disappointing week last week in Philly but a lot of that was because of the score. Jacksonville jumped out early and HC Doug Pederson attacked with a short passing game. But once they got down, they pretty much abandoned the run. Robinson had 6 rushing attempts in the 1st quarter but only 2 the rest of the game.

So don’t worry about that as the Jags shouldn’t end up in a similar game situation as last week. This will be more like their game against the Colts and Chargers where they averaged 36.5 carries per game. And Robinson had 164 yards on 50 carries and 2 TD’s in those two games.

DAMEON PIERCE $6200 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

Dameon Pierce is finally getting the salary adjustment that should have come last week. He has sat in Tier 3 over the first 4 weeks and outperformed his salary since Week 1. He gets a decent matchup this week against Jacksonville. The Jags shut down Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler but then allowed 210 rushing yards to the Eagles last week. I do think Pierce will have some difficulties finding consistent yards but the good news is he’s a home run hitter. Last week he was held to 3.5 yards per carry until he ripped off a 75 yards TD run. And he’s also featured in the pass game as he caught 6 balls last week. Whether the Texans are up or down, Pierce is a focal point in their offense and is still a great play at this price point.

DEVIN SINGLETARY $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

Devin Singletary is not having the greatest year on the ground as he’s averaging just 3.8 yards per carry in 4 games. That would be a career low as Singletary has averaged above 4.4 yards per carry in each of his previous 3 seasons. However, he is making up for that in the pass game as he has 13 receptions over the past 2 games and 17 total on the season. And what’s more important is that he is the clear RB1 option is Buffalo as he has gained 69% of the snap counts this season (Moss = 20% and Cook = 12%).

This week we have the largest spread on the board with Buffalo a 15 point favorite versus Pittsburgh. So if the game goes in one direction, there is potential for Singletary to see his biggest usage this week. And for those reasons, I like him against the Steelers and think he’s in line for a 2-3x value performance.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

KHALIL HERBERT $5900 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

Herbert was a favorite play by many last week as his ownership value was at 37.3% which was the highest of all RB’s. And he returned a lukewarm outing by scoring just 11.1 DK points. A lot of his hype was due to his performance versus a bad rushing defense in the Houston Texans. But the Giants are much tougher against the run, ranking 21st in rushing DVOA, and they play at one of the slowest paces in the league. So the underwhelming performance wasn’t too surprising. This week he gets a much better matchup in the Minnesota Vikings who are 27th in rushing DVOA and 23rd in rushing yards allowed. So if Montgomery is out once again this spot will be ideal for Herbert to reinspire owners and put up a solid week.

RHAMONDRE STEVENSON $5500 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

Stevenson is in a shared role with teammate Damien Harris. But Stevenson has received 34 touches to Harris’s 32 in the past 2 weeks. And he’s more prevalent in the pass game averaging 4 catches over the past 2 games. Rhamondre also averages more per carry (4.9 versus 4.6 for Harris). But this isn’t really about the two RB’s because I think both could have big games. This is more about the Lions D who allows a league high 5.6 YPC and has allowed 10 rushing TD’s in 4 games. So I’ll take the RB with a little more upside and $100 less than his partner in the backfield.

RAHEEM MOSTERT $5000 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

It’s pretty clear now that Mostert is the lead running back in Miami. He has gained 57% of the snaps to Edmonds’ 46%. And he’s doubled Edmonds’ carries over the past 3 weeks (34 to 16). The production is clear too as Mostert has almost 1 more ypc than Chase Edmonds. What’s also in Mostert’s favor is the fact that Teddy Bridgewater has taken over at QB. The game plan will be much more conservative and I think Mostert will be the beneficiary of that. The Jets rank 15th against RB’s this year but the one game where they faced a top RB, Nick Chubb went for 87 yards and 3 TD’s good for 32.3 DK points that day.

BONUS PICKS

I already listed my 10 favorites but I want to give you a bonus to consider. I like whoever is starting for New Orleans. If ALVIN KAMARA ($6600 DraftKings $7200 FanDuel) plays against the Seahawks then he’s a smash play at this price. If he’s listed as inactive I am very much interested in LATAVIUS MURRAY ($4600). Murray looked like a better runner than Mark Ingram last week against the Vikings and his stats proved it. He ended up with more carries (11 vs 10) and yards (57 vs 30) as well as 1 TD. This was surprising for someone who was just signed but he took advantage of his opportunities.

And the main reason to like the Saints running game is the Seahawks are just that bad against the run. They rank 29th in the NFL allowing 154 yards per game on the ground. And they are allowing the second most points per game at 28.4.

RB PROP BETS

We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines. We are 3-3 in this spot so far this season.

Now that you finished reading the NFL RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACKS REPORT – WEEK 5 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

NICK CHUBB $8000 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

DALVIN COOK $7300 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

LEONARD FOURNETTE $6900 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

JAMAAL WILLIAMS $6400 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel

JAMES ROBINSON $6300 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

DAMEON PIERCE $6200 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

DEVIN SINGLETARY $6100 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

KHALIL HERBERT $5900 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

RHAMONDRE STEVENSON $5500 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

RAHEEM MOSTERT $5000 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

BONUS PICKS

RB PROP BETS

We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines. We are 3-3 in this spot so far this season.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 5 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Listen, I feel guilty for not recommending TJ Hockenson last week. Of course we all saw 93 points coming in that game, and I should have been all over it! I kid, of course, and congrats to all who had TJ. He truly broke the slate at TE. Now that we are in Week 5, our goal is to find the TJ this week (maybe it IS TJ). Let’s get right to it.

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 4 on DraftKings and FanDuel! Crazy to think that after this week, we are already almost 25% of the way through the NFL season!

Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Maybe I’m just an old curmudgeon, but typing the word “Commanders” for an NFL team makes me feel like I’m playing an unlicensed version of Madden. Nevertheless, Thomas is a sneaky good play this week. Jahan Dotson seems very unlikely to play on Sunday, and Thomas should be one of the main beneficiaries.

After running routes on only about 76% of his snaps Weeks 1-2, Thomas ran a route on over 94% each of the last two weeks. He was targeted six times against Dallas on Sunday, but pulled in just five balls for 19 yards. It’s easy to blame Carson Wentz, who is undoubtedly the man staring back at you when you Google “QBs who are terrible in real life but fantasy relevant”.

Washington faces the Titans this week, and only the Seahawks (thanks to Hockenson) are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing TE.

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

I’m fairly certain that Ertz has been in this article every week so far this season. I can’t imagine that changing, regardless of matchup, until DeAndre Hopkins returns. Check out where our guy Zach ranks among TE since Week 2.

Snap counts: 1st, 1st, 7th.

Targets: T1st, T2nd, T7th.

The opportunities are there, and the only reason he saw a SLIGHT dip last week was the fact that the Cardinals weren’t playing from behind for once. I’ll be betting that they’ll be playing from behind again this week against the 4-0 Eagles.

If you’re into this sort of thing, we can call this one a revenge game for Ertz. This will be his first time facing his former team. The matchup isn’t great of course, but the volume should be elite once again.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Last week we discussed two TE who were facing each other, and this week our featured matchup is Goedert vs Ertz. Dallas has 16 targets over his last three games, and draws a juicy matchup against the Cardinals. They rank 30th in the NFL against TE, allowing over 20 fantasy points per game.

This game has a total hovering around 50 points, and Goedert has continued to deliver. He has 11+ DraftKings points in each of his last three games.

TJ Hockenson, Lions ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

FanDuel and DraftKings were quick to make Hockenson the most expensive TE on the main slate, but this is again a slate missing Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. I think he’s a decent fade in tournaments, as his game last week should see his ownership skyrocket.

However, this is actually a pretty good spot for Hock. The Patriots have allowed the most touchdowns in the NFL to opposing TE (5), and the Lions lead the NFL with 35 PPG. To me, playing or not playing Hock in tournaments comes down to the status of Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeAndre Swift. If both are out, you’ll need shares of him. If just Sun God sits, he’s viable as well.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Here’s an idea. Let’s ignore last week’s debacle (one catch for 25 yards on four targets) and take advantage of some recency bias. The perfect time to target a player at low ownership is immediately after they disappoint. The DFS world is less than pleased with Pitts, and for good reason. But hear me out.

Cordarrelle Patterson has been placed on the IR, and Atlanta doesn’t truly have much experience in the backfield. The offense will be relying on their young duo of Pitts and Drake London against the Bucs.

Pitts only played 62% of the snaps last week, but had his highest rate of routes run on the season (92.3%). The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs in a game with a total around 49. This is the perfect game script for Pitts and company to post some fantasy goodness. Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd-most receptions to opposing TE this season. One time, Kyle. Let’s run it back.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 5, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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