Welcome to the Week 15 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
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Unlike weeks past, we still have 2 games to play today and 2 tomorrow. Thanks COVID!
Let’s dig in to the data!
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
If you have ask most Ravens fans, Marquise Brown had 1 less target than he should have had in Week 15. Many camera angles show him wide open in the end zone when they went for 2. That said, he still had a great weekend in terms of targets. No one in the NFL had more targets than Brown did this weekend. Brown was targeted 14 times this. It’s not all rosy picture though for Brown.
Even though he was able to catch 10 of his targets, he went for only 43 yards passing. After getting 116 yards vs. the Vikings in week 9 Brown now has 6 consecutive weeks of less than 60 receiving yards and also hasn’t found the end zone since Week 7 vs. the Bengals. If the Ravens have any hope of beating the Bengals next weekend they’ll need a bounce back game from Brown.
While Brown had a down week, Tyreek Hill showed the world why he is one of the most dynamic players in the game, albeit frustrating players as well. Hill had gone 9 consecutive games without breaking the 100 yard mark. This week he broke it with some room to spare. Hill was able to catch 12 of his 13 week 15 targets for 148 receiving yards. He was also able to find the end zone for the first time since week 10. Hill and his teammates look to keep the good times rolling against the Steelers in Week 16.
Brandon Cooks, have yourself a day! For the second consecutive week Cooks had double digit targets and over 100 yards receiving. With opening week starter Tyrod Taylor down with an injury, Cooks and Davis Mills have really found a rhythm together and it’s been somewhat fun to watch. The two of them also connected for 2 touchdowns this weekend. Up next week is a much tougher assignment in the Chargers. Can they keep connecting like they have been?
Penn State alum Saquon Barkley led all backs this weekend with 8 targets. The good news? He was able to catch 4 of them. The bad news? He did absolutely nothing with the targets as he finished with just 24 receiving yards. There’s no other way to describe his 2021 season than saying it’s an utter disappointment. He’ll look to get back on track next weekend vs. an Eagles team that is fighting for their playoff lives.
I’m not going to spend too much time talking about running backs and targets this weekend as running backs and targets did not mix well. Not a single back had more than 50 yards receiving this weekend and there were only 5 receiving touchdowns for backs. Ameer Abdullah led all running backs in receiving yards. If that doesn’t tell you about the weekend and running backs, I don’t know what will.
Where I do want to spend some time is with Tight Ends. I’ll start with Mark Andrews. Week 15 was very kind to Andrews. He led all tight ends with 13 targets. Andrews was able to catch 10 of them for 136 yards and 2 scores. My season long fantasy team thanks you very much. This was Andrews second consecutive week with over 100 yards receiving and fourth overall. Up next week for Andrews and his mates are the Cincinnati Bengals in a must win game for the Ravens.
While Andrews had a stellar week, Travis Kelce was really the one who stole the show. Kelce finished 9 yards shy of the 200 yard mark. He was able to convert his 13 targets into 10 catches and 2 touchdowns. This was Kelce’s first 100 yard game since week 10 against the Raiders. The combo of Hill and Kelce combined for well over 300 yards. They’ll look to do it against this coming weekend against the Steelers.
We won’t go down the negative road and talk about the night that Rob Gronkowski had. Ok, you talked me into it. Gronk had arguably his worst game of the year, as did Brady. The only other game that comes close to his poor week 15 performance was all the way back in week 8 vs. the same New Orleans Saints. Gronk was targeted 11 times yesterday and was only able to catch 2 of them for just 29 yards. Gronk season long owners in the playoffs probably weren’t too happy with that yesterday.
Ryan Tannehill threw the ball 32 times in week 15. Of those 32 times, more than half went to either his running backs or tight ends. Once Julio Jones left the game yesterday, it became a much different plan of attack for Tannehill. Tannehill now has 3 consecutive weeks with less than 200 yards passing. With both his top receivers injured he’s struggled to find anyone else.
When you have a tight end like Mark Andrews, you use him heavily. That’s exactly what Tyler Huntley did on Sunday. Of the 39 pass attempts for Huntley, a third of them went to Andrews. Another third went to Marquise Brown, although those were far less successful than Andrews’ targets. This has pretty much been the game plan all year. Thrown to either Andrews or Brown and it has worked with much success.
If you expected the Lions to completely dominate the Cardinals in week 15 raise your hand? I doubt anyone is raising their hand right now. Jared Goff had his way with the Cardinals secondary yesterday. Goff only threw the ball 26 times yesterday, but 21 of them were caught which is an extremely solid completion %. Of his 26 attempts, 20 went to his wide receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the biggest beneficiary as he caught 8 of his 11 targets for 90 yards and a score.
At this point, Jonathan Taylor has to be considered one of the front runners for the MVP. Week in and week out he has been a stud. He’s reached the 100 yard mark in 8 of his last 11 games. Taylor also has touchdowns in all but his first 3 games of the year. The Colts are in the thick of the playoff race right now and it’s 100% due to the play of Taylor.
With the Lions top 2 running backs on the shelf this weekend, Craig Reynolds stepped up and boy did he step up. He was second to only Taylor in week 15 with 26 carries. He made the most of his carries as he finished with 112 yards on the ground. In his two weeks carrying the ball Reynolds now has 195 yards on 37 carries. Not bad for someone cut earlier in the year.
Just moments before kick off the Dolphins announced that Duke Johnson would be the starting running back. That 100% looked like the right call in week 15 as Johnson finished with 107 yards on 22 carries and 2 touchdowns. While Gaskin owners I’m sure weren’t overly enthusiastic about the move, it worked for the Dolphins as they beat up on the lowly Jets. Up next week is a much tougher task in the Saints and you have to think that the Dolphins will turn to a healthy Gaskin more.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
The Indianapolis Colts ran the ball almost 80% of the time in week 15. Why not when you have the league’s most prolific back. Of the Colts 51 plays this week, 39 were for runs compared to just 12 pass plays. It worked for them this week as they surprisingly beat the Patriots 27-17.
Tampa Bay continued to throw often last night, even thought it just wasn’t working. Tom Brady threw the ball 48 times and had only 26 completions. It was just the second time all year that Brady was held without a passing touchdown. A lot of it was due to the fact that the Buccaneers were decimated by injuries last night as they lost Fournette, Evans, and Godwin to injuries mid game. That led to Tom Brady being shutout for the first time in 15 years.
Week 15 was as weird of a weekend as we’ve seen in quite some time, and hope to see in the near future. Covid wreaked havoc on the schedule as we now have a 2 game slate on a Tuesday and a Monday afternoon game. We did have some solid performances as 5 backs rushed for over 100 yards and another 5 guys had over 100 receiving yards. We still have a healthy amount of games left with 4 still to play.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
As teams in the NFL battle injuries and COVID protocols while jockeying for playoff positions and seeding, the show must go on as we head into Week 15. Be sure to keep up with the news, as teams have been experiencing decreasing player availability every day this week; there will certainly be a ton of value to be had with the number of players listed as out, but be sure to check for updates throughout the weekend. Let’s ride.
While cash games are not the most exciting contests to play, they are absolutely vital when it comes to long-term profitability in every sport, let alone NFL DFS, and allows us to ensure a stable bankroll on a weekly basis. In essence, half of your entry fees should be dedicated to cash games so that, should every one of your GPP lineups miss the pay line, you simply break even on the week. For more, please be sure to read Stix’s NFL DFS Strategy article, if you have not done so already. Some key items to remember when building your NFL cash lineups:
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray ($7,800 DK / $8,800 FD)
The dual-threat quarterback may be without his top target in DeAndre Hopkins until the NFL Playoffs, but Kyler Murray has the best floor/ceiling combination of anyone at the position this week. In last week’s loss to their division rival, the Los Angeles Rams, Murray posted over 22 fantasy points on DK and just under 20 on FD without scoring a single touchdown, demonstrating just how dominant he’s been this season as the top player at the position on a per-game basis. The Cardinals now face a Detroit Lions team that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA and 32nd in yards per attempt allowed, whereby Murray leads the league with his exceptional deep ball.
Matt Stafford ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD)
If you cannot get up to Murray on FD, Stafford is a great pivot for our cash game builds. Pacing a Sean McVay led offense is no easy task, but Stafford has been up to the challenge this season in his first with the Rams, ranking 3rd in the NFL in passing yards, 2nd in touchdowns, and 6th in air yards per attempt. In a friendly matchup versus a Seahawks secondary that is now without star safety Jamal Adams for the rest of the season, Stafford and company will do work on home soil.
*Update* SEA @ LAR has been postponed to Tuesday.
Dak Prescott ($6,500 DK / $7,500 FD)
With back-to-back subpar performances for the Cowboys offense as a unit, Dak Prescott is now priced down on both sites and I plan on taking full advantage. While he has only thrown for 449 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games, where he’s also thrown three interceptions, the Giants defense is one that he knows well and can expose. Despite ranking 10th in DVOA against the pass, the Giants surrendered a whopping 44 points to the Cowboys back in Week 5, where Dak threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. With the NFL Playoffs right around the corner, look for one of the league’s best offenses to get back on track in a divisional game.
Honorable Mentions
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD)
Projecting to be one of the highest rostered players on this NFL slate, Saquon Barkley will likely be a staple point in my cash builds, alongside the running back listed right below him. As I stated last week, it’s tough for me to stomach playing any New York Giant right now, not because of the lack of talent in someone like Barkley, rather, their offense is simply as inefficient as one can imagine. Now without Daniel Jones and having Mike Glennon under center, it only gets worse, if that was even possible. However, seeing double-digit carries and a combined 17 targets over the last three weeks gives Saquon a safe floor and he continues to have the highest touchdown equity of anyone on his team.
James Robinson ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD)
With Urban Meyer now out of Jacksonville, the NFL’s chalk play of the week is none other than the undrafted bell cow out of Illinois State. While he only played 63% of the snaps last week and has a combined 14 carries in his last two games, Robinson gets a Houston Texans defensive unit that ranks 32nd in rushing defense DVOA, have allowed the most total yards on the ground, in addition to being 30th in yards per attempt.
James Connor ($6,400 DK / $8,000 FD)
If you are not playing Kyler Murray as your cash game QB, feel free to get exposure to the high-flying Cardinals offense with James Connor. Despite Chase Edmonds likely coming off the IR for their tilt versus the Lions, Connor is second in the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 14, two shy of the leader, Jonathan Taylor. Seeing double-digit carries in 10 of his last 11 games, Connor also flashed his upside in the passing game with a season-high 9-94 stat line in last week’s affair versus the Rams, and now finds himself as a near 14-point favorite versus the worst team in the league that also ranks 28th in rush defense DVOA, allowing over 135 yards per game.
Honorable Mentions:
Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK / $9,000 FD)
Pacing the NFL with 151 total targets and 11.6 targets per game, Cooper Kupp is set to lead yet another NFL slate in scoring at the wide receiver position. With the Rams having lost Robert Woods for the season, they recently brought in Odell Beckham Jr. upon his release from the Cleveland Browns, but the latter is now out for this game, having being placed on the COVID list. With Kupp drawing double digit targets in every game this season other than in Week 8 versus Houston (nine targets), there is no better play at the position.
*Update* SEA @ LAR has been postponed to Tuesday.
Davante Adams ($8,900 DK / $8,500 FD)
If you are not playing Cooper Kupp on this NFL slate, then your pivot is none other than Davante Adams. With the Packers looking like a serious Super Bowl contender heading into the playoffs, the Rodgers-Adams combo looks as scary as ever, with the star wideout topping 100 yards in three straight games. Facing a Baltimore defense that remains without Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Iman Marshall, Ar’Darius Washington, DeShon Elliott, and now Chuck Clark, the only reason you’d play Adams over Kupp in cash is so the former outscores the latter, but it’s certainly enticing given the state of this Ravens secondary.
*Update* With Cooper Kupp now unavailable, I will be locking in Davante Adams.
DeVante Parker ($4,300 DK / $5,800 FD)
With Jaylen Waddle landing on the COVID list, Parker will likely be one of the highest rostered players at the WR position on this NFL slate. While most were likely expecting Tua Tagovailoa to be in the quarterback section of the cash game checkdown, he did not make the cut for me because I do not like punting QB in cash games, and I will already have exposure to the Miami Dolphins passing game with one, if not both, of Parker and/or Gesicki. Despite already commanding a 21.4% target share in the aerial attack, Waddle’s team-leading 23.6% target share leaves a lot of room for productivity for both Parker and Gesicki against this Jets secondary than ranks 32nd DVOA against passing offenses.
Honorable Mentions:
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki ($5,000 DK / $6,200 FD)
I’m essentially not rostering a tight end in cash this week because Mike Gesicki is, simply put, a 6’6″ slot receiver. Running a route in the slot on 56.5% of his routes, Gesicki instantly becomes the safety blanket for Tua that Waddle was, which consistently resulted in double digit targets and 60+ yards for the rookie wide receiver out of Alabama, and is as close to a staple point in our NFL cash games as it gets.
George Kittle ($7,500 DK / $7,800 FD)
I wouldn’t have been able to get Kittle into my cash game lineups regardless with Cooper Kupp being the priority pay up option this week, but if you can get him in without two punts, do it. Kittle has the matchup we always love to pick on in the Atlanta Falcons, and despite not being on the outside versus AJ Terrell and Fabian Moreau, Kittle’s production as of late is simply outstanding, where he’s gone for 322 yards on 27 catches, including three touchdowns, in only his last two games.
Pat Freiermuth ($4,500 DK / $5,300 FD)
With a commanding red zone target share that leads the NFL since Week 6, Pat Freiermuth has become a go-to option for Ben Roethlisberger when it matters most. For the first time in six weeks, Freiermuth had below four targets in last week’s tilt versus the Vikings, but was primarily being hawked by Harrison Smith, and now it will not get any easier with Kevin Byard this week. If you can get up to Gesicki, make every effort to do so, but I would not change my enter build should it be Freiermuth over Gesicki, should you have DeVante Parker already, for example.
Defense/Special Teams
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
Welcome to the Week 14 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.
Let’s dig in to the data!
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
Chris Godwin now has back to back weeks with at least 15 targets. After getting targeted 17 times in week 13 Godwin saw another 15 targets in week 14. And for the second straight week he broke the 100 yard mark. Although it was a third consecutive week where he did not find the end zone, Godwin fantasy owners have to be happy with his level of production. Good ole Tom Brady continues to look his way and you have to think we a match up vs. the Saints next weekend, we’ll see more of the same.
We need to start talking more about Hunter Renfrow. Since their bye in week 8, Renfrow has seen at least 9 targets in all but 1 game. Over the last 2 weeks he’s been targeted 24 times. He now has 3 straight weeks of at least 100 yards and this week he scored his first touchdown since week 10. The man is currently on a mission and is quickly becoming one of Derek Carr’s favorite weapons.
After a little bit of a mid season swoon, Davante Adams is back folks. Coming off the bye Adams exploded for 121 yards yesterday against the bears. He was targeted 13 times, the most targets he’s had since week 9 against the Chiefs. For the second time in 3 three weeks Adams finished the game with 2 touchdowns. Up next week is a big game vs. a Ravens team that is seeing its season spiral out of control.
Opportunity came knocking at Royce Freeman’s door on Sunday. With David Johnson ruled out prior to the game with Covid and Rex Burkhead leaving the game early with an injury, someone had to take snaps next to Davis Mills and that was Royce Freeman.
Freeman more than doubled his season’s worth of targets with 8 on Sunday. Those 8 were more than any other back in the game. He actually did a little bit of work with them as he finished with 6 catches and 51 yards. This will probably be a 1 and done though depending on injuries and Covid protocols.
Devin Singletary was another guy that saw productivity come out of nowhere in terms of receiving. After having been held to just 6 targets between weeks 10 and 13, Singletary was targeted 7 times on Sunday. He also made the most of them as he caught 6 and went for 37 yards. With the Bills seemingly down the entire game, Allen through often and Singletary was a beneficiary of that.
George Kittle is on an extremely impressive run right now. While he didn’t top his week 13 output, he came pretty darn close. After going for 181 yards in week 13, he went for 151 yards yesterday. His 15 targets yesterday were the most he’s seen all year and his 13 catches were also the most. Kittle found the end zone once and now has touchdowns in 5 of his last 6 games. This combo of Garoppolo and Kittle has been a ton of fun to watch.
No Lamar Jackson, no problem for Mark Andrews. He continues to be the main target for whoever is behind center for the Ravens. Andrews’ 11 targets this weekend were the most he’s seen since week 5 against the Colts. His late touchdown almost helped the Ravens come back from what seemed like an insurmountable deficit. The Ravens look to get back on track with a tough assignment next week against the Packers.
Matt Ryan only threw the ball 27 times this weekend, but the majority of those went to non-receivers. Of his 27 passes, 19 went to either running backs or tight ends. He targeted 3 people 6 times each, 2 of which were Patterson and Pitts. The loss of Ridley has really hit the team hard in terms of where to pass. Week in and week out Ryan has been forced to use his running backs and tight ends in the pass game.
Jimmy Garoppolo has a favorite weapon and it’s not even close. Garoppolo threw the ball 37 times on Sunday, with 15 going to Kittle. He was by far the most targeted person in the passing game. The next closest person was Brandon Aiyuk at 11. If it isn’t broken, no need to fix it. Look for that type of game plan to continue in the weeks to come.
When you have a main receiving corps of Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson, is the really a reason to throw to anyone else? Of Big Ben’s 39 passes on Thursday night, 19 went to the duo of Claypool and Johnson. Only 6 of his passes went to non-receivers. While the Steelers didn’t win on Thursday, it wasn’t due to a lack of offense. This is a game plan that works well for Roethlisberger and it’s something we’ll see often as the season winds down.
For the first time in weeks we got to see a healthy Alvin Kamara. Boy was it fun to watch. Kamara carried the ball 27 times in week 14 and was extremely successful. For the first time since week 4 against the Giants, Kamara broke the 100 yard mark. His 27 carries were also the most he’s had all year. The stars aligned for Kamara this week as he got to face the Jets and his back up running back was out due to covid. Next week he gets a much tougher assignment in the Buccaneers.
After sitting out week 13 with a shoulder injury, Dalvin Cook came back with vengeance in week 14. Playing in a prime time game against the Steelers, Cook showed off a skillset only a few have. He carried the Vikings offense with 205 yards on the ground with 2 touchdowns. Cook had season highs in every aspect of his game. Most carries, most yards, and most touchdowns. He should wear that shoulder harness more often.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.
With the Eagles on a bye in week 14 we’ll need to find another team to talk about. With Taysom Hill behind center and having an injured finger on his throwing hand, the Saints went with a run heavy offense. They ran the ball almost 70% of the time this weekend. While the Jets have many weaknesses, the run defense is one of the biggest. The Saints finished with 44 run plays and over 200 yards rushing with 3 touchdowns.
The Jaguars are a mess. There’s no other way to put it. They were down seemingly from the start of the game. With Meyer refusing to use his star running back, Trevor Lawrence was forced to throw the ball more than 80% of the time on Sunday. He threw the ball 40 times. You would think that many passes you’d have a respectable final line. Nope, Lawrence finished with only 221 yards and 4 INT’s. Urban Meyer, if you’re reading this: Give. The. Ball. To. James. Robinson
Week 14 was another fun weekend of football. We saw some solid performances from people we’ve come to expect, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and George Kittle. And some we normally wouldn’t expect it from, Rashaad Penny, Rashod Bateman, and Brandon Cooks. Make sure to use our
Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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