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NFL DFS Top Plays

NFL DFS Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

What a start to the NFL DFS Cash Game Season, 2-0! It was a pleasure to see all of the green-screens on Twitter and Discord AGAIN last week. Everyone seemed to have smashed their cash games and we’re here to do it again in Week 3! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, plenty of value at the running back position. Use it! (Everyone is going to pay-down at RB this week… just something to think about in your NFL DFS GPP lineups)
Loaded slate of Quarterbacks… don’t get cute!
Some injury concerns we will keep an eye on. Check back Sunday!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Honestly, the QB position is relatively easy this week for your NFL DFS cash games. Last week was gross, but this week there are a ton of great choices. We’re going to want a QB that has dual-threat upside or someone that can throw for 300+ yards and 2 touchdowns. I’ll simply list them below as you know what to do:

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)
Jalen Hurts ($7,600 DK / $8,100 FD)
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $8,600 FD)

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Joe Mixon ($7,600 DK / $8,200 FD)

At the top of the board, the highest salary at the running back position I’m likely going to in cash, is Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon is a lock for 20+ touches in any gamescript right now and the touchdown variance is likely to start falling in his favor. With a matchup against mediocre run defense (21st in DVOA), and a bad defense overall, Mixon should be in a prime spot at home to get over that 2.5x value mark we’re looking for in our cash game lineups.

Leonard Fournette ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD)

The Buccaneers will likely be without a lot of their weapons on the offensive side of things with Mike Evans suspended and both Chris Godwin and Julio Jones injured. Sure, there will likely be some value opening up on the Bucs’ wide receiving core, but we know Brady goes to guys he trusts. Like Mixon, Fournette will certainly be in store for a 20+ touch afternoon and heavily involved in the passing game for a depleted pass-catching roster. The way to attack this Green Bay defense is via the run and check-down game.

David Montgomery ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD)

Let’s not reinvent the wheel here. The chalk is going to be David Montgomery on likely both NFL DFS outlets. Houston has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL (25th in DVOA) and like the two runners above, Montgomery is a volume guy that should certainly pay off the lower salary, especially on DraftKings.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Dameon Pierce (locked in if Roquan Smith is out for the Bears, likely locked in for me anyways due to wanting Kupp).

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,900 DK / $9,800 FD) & Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DK / $9,500 FD)

With the value opened up at the running back position, I’ll be making it a focal point to lock in one of these top wideouts on the slate. I’d love to include Davante Adams in this mix, but I’m only going with the two who will be playing in a dome and up-paced environments. Arizona has one of the worst secondaries in football (as if you needed a written reason to support Cooper Kupp), and Justin Jefferson destroys Detroit’s man defense. Both of these situations are fantasy fire-up spots in what should be up-tempo matchups across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200 DK / $7,800 FD)

We truly have a star in the making in Amon-Ra St. Brown. The target share currently sits third in the NFL at over 33% and also leads the team in red-zone targets. Chandon Sullivan on the inside of the Minnesota defense isn’t as bad as Benjamin St. Juste who we picked on last week, but he’s not far from it. Trust the chemistry with Goff and St. Brown in your NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Tee Higgins ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

I’d love to pay-up for Ja’Maar Chase, but I’ll settle for cheaper exposure to the Bengals’ passing attack if I do not pay-up for Joe Mixon. The Jets are dead last in pass defense DVOA and clearly have the worst secondary in football right now. Wheels up for the volume and red-zone upside for Tee Higgins (especially on DraftKings).

Curtis Samuel ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD)

I’ll be riding the hot hand of Curtis Samuel who is clearly the main focus of the passing game for Ron Rivera and Scott Turner. The price is simply too low for a guy with an AETY Model expected target share of 22% in a game where they should be playing form behind.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Drake London, Mecole Hardman, Breshad Perriman

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Keeping this one simple this week. You’re paying up for Travis Kelce, or paying down for Irv Smith chalk-week. I prefer the Kelce route, but 100% understand the Irv Smith chalk if it allows you to roster Cooper Kupp and hopefully Joe Mixon.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, TJ Hockenson

Defense / Special Teams

Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup:

Los Angeles Chargers
Carolina Panthers
Las Vegas Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots and post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Josh Allen
David Montgomery
Curtis Samuel
Tee Higgins
Dameon Pierce

UPDATE: Mack Hollins Value is in-play with Renfrow OUT.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

3 years ago 0 comments

Week 3 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Week 2 saw some big performances from the likes of Mark Andrews (9/104/1) and Darren Waller (6/50/1), and some disappointments (looking at you, Dalton Schultz). The more data we have, the better. Here’s to Week 3 being a lucrative one!

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 3 on DraftKings and FanDuel! Let’s kick off Week 3 with some Tight End picks!

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

After two weeks, the TE leading the NFL in targets is…Tyler Higbee. He has seen 11 and 9 targets, respectively, and parlayed those opportunities into 12/110. While he hasn’t found paydirt yet, this type of volume keeps him in play each week. The Rams have the 6th-highest passing rate in the NFL this season at nearly 66%.

Cooper Kupp will always be the top target here, but Higbee has become Mr. Reliable. Higbee has seen three Red Zone targets over two weeks, including three inside the 10. He may not have the upside you’re looking for to win a GPP, but he is a safe, solid bet for your cash lineup.

The Cardinals have been brutalized by opposing TE thus far in 2022, allowing a ridiculous 19/212/3 line over just two weeks. Smash spot.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

The Arizona Cardinals offense has been stagnant early in 2022. They have seemingly sleep-walked through the first half of each game before piling on the stats late. In DFS, we don’t care when the points come.

The good news? Ertz is leading all TE with five targets inside the RedZone in 2022. Even better? After being limited with only 39 snaps in Week 1, Ertz led all players at the position with 73 in Week 2.

He seems criminally underpriced for a player who tied with Mark Andrews with most TE targets in Week 2 (11). A matchup against the Rams doesn’t scare me one bit. The Cardinals are 3.5 point underdogs with a total hovering around 50. Ertz looks like an elite play across the board, despite a perceived tough matchup.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

This isn’t a sexy play, but Conklin needs to be on your radar again this week. The Jets have thrown the ball on a ridiculous 74.66% of their offensive plays in 2022. This is mainly a product of playing from behind, but the point remains.

Conklin is the only TE in the NFL who has seem 70+ snaps each week. Joe Flacco has targeted him 16 times in those two games. The Bengals have allowed nearly 70 YPG to TE in 2022, and are currently listed as 4.5 point favorites. Flacco may just keep slinging it until his arm falls off at this point.

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

Everett may find himself in the doghouse after last week, but that remains to be seen. If you missed it, Everett was targeted on consecutive plays. The Chargers ran hurry-up, Everett called to the sideline to come out of the game and was waved off. Justin Herbert looked his way at the goal-line and Everett was gassed. Pick-6. Game-changer.

I’m choosing to look past that and focus on the good. Everett has hauled in nine of 14 targets for 125 yards and a score over two games this season (6-71 on 10 targets in Week 2). The status of Keenan Allen will likely play a huge factor for Everett’s target share. Be sure to watch out for his status, and Everett’s floor and ceiling will take a hit if he returns in Week 3.

Jacksonville has been tough on opposing TE in 2022, but they haven’t played anyone of note. Give Everett a look this week, especially if Allen can’t go.

Irv Smith Jr, Minnesota Vikings ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel

Smith paid off in a big way on Monday night, but it could have been so much better. He dropped a WIDE OPEN ball that most likely would have been a long touchdown. Despite this gaffe, his 5/36/1 line on eight targets was exactly what we were looking for.

He still only saw 34 snaps, but that was nearly double his total from Week 1 (19). Justin Jefferson was shut down by Darius Slay (but mostly by Kirk Cousins), which opened up more opportunities for Smith. The Lions have had issues on the defensive end this season, allowing 65 points in two games. If Cousins can get it together, this one has shootout potential. Take a look at TJ Hockenson on the opposite side as well.

I don’t need to tell you to play the likes of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, but they are elite plays regardless of matchup.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 3, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 3 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

The Cardinals have been brutalized by opposing TE thus far in 2022, allowing a ridiculous 19/212/3 line over just two weeks. Smash spot.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

Jacksonville has been tough on opposing TE in 2022, but they haven’t played anyone of note. Give Everett a look this week, especially if Allen can’t go.

Irv Smith Jr, Minnesota Vikings ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel

I don’t need to tell you to play the likes of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, but they are elite plays regardless of matchup.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 3, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 2

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Week One and done! Our project models were razor-sharp and should’ve increased your bankroll over the weekend! But there’s no time to sit back and count our money… there’s plenty more to make in Week 2! With so many ways to set your lineups on this 12-game slate, we got you covered. There were some incredible scores last week with a few big names like A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase in those cash games, so let’s get back to the lab and formulate more NFL DFS winners! Again always here to help in our discord chat, you can tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any insight…Thanks and Good Luck this weekend!

Sunday Main Slate 9/18/22

Bucs @ Saints (+2.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 44)

Buccaneers

Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 10 YPC against the front seven of New Orleans and since Brady’s O-Line is a mess, he may want to hand it to his bell-cow Fournette, who looked like a battering ram Sunday night in Dallas. Chris Godwin may have come back from rehab too soon as he went down again with a hamstring, not looking good for him to play. So is Mike Evans a lock? Saints stud corner Marshon Lattimore says otherwise. He’s owned big Mike, holding him to 8 catches over the past 4 regular season matchups. Pivoting to Julio and Gage would fit nicely in a tourney.

Saints

The Bucs are still a brick wall to run on with Vita Veya and company upfront, so it’s a pass on Kamara for me this week. Jameis will be forced to throw a ton and after a two-year hiatus, Michael Thomas will get his share of targets again, especially after his two touchdowns. I mentioned above about Tampa’s O-Line, that Saints pressure could really rattle Brady on Sunday and force a few turnovers and sacks Saints DST I am not arguing at all for ($2,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel). On the flip side, Tampa themselves have been strong on defense. We all have seen Winston over the years turn over the ball, give me Tampa DST to play it safe.

Update: A. Kamara is out!!!

Cash: T. Brady, L. Fournette, Tampa DST, M. Thomas

GPP: J. Jones, R. Gage, Saints DST

Panthers @ Giants (-2.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 43)

Panthers

I was not impressed with the offense, which looks to be still in the works and needs some more time to gel. CMC did not put up as many points as anticipated, mainly because of the Browns dialing in on defense. How about a homecoming for Robbie Anderson at the Meadowlands? He led Carolina with 8 targets, grabbing (5 REC for 102 YDS and a TD). Born and raised in Teaneck, NJ, and drafted by the Jets in 2016, Anderson may put out another nice stat sheet in front of family and friends.

Giants

New York pulled out an upset in Tennessee and the entire world saw Saquon Barkley carry his team to victory. This kid looked like he went back in time to 2018, rushing for 164 yards and a touchdown. He caught 6 balls for 30 too, making him hands down the focal point of the G-Men. I’m not feeling this low total though, so I would only feel safe with Barkley in this one. Now as a Giants fan, I would have said Sterling Shepard was still the WR1 of the core, even coming off an Achilles injury he proved my theory on the money. He is the only trust-worthy receiver for New York that brought in a 65–yard touchdown catch in Tennessee.

Cash: S. Barkley

GPP: R. Anderson, S. Shepard

Jets @ Browns (-6) 1 p.m. (O/U 40)

Jets

Ooofff another game where I’d rather be getting a root canal than watch. Sorry about last week guys, tried being a little too creative with Joe Flacco, he’s toast. He does like dumping off to his running backs, in fact, Michael Carter caught 7 of them. Elijah Moore did see 7 targets and is the best option at receiver for New York, I can invest with them in a GPP, especially Carter who has been praised by the head coach Robert Salah.

Browns

I dote on the fact that Cleveland kept quiet all week while Baker was in the spotlight, and pulled out the win in Carolina. Their defense when healthy is a huge headache for O.C.s and will 100 percent get to Flacco. The Browns will look to eat up the clock using Chubb and Hunt after getting the ball back from Jets’ 3 and outs. Possibly DPJ can break one off on a deep route like what Duvernay and Bateman did a week ago.

Cash: N. Chubb, Cleveland DST, M. Carter

GPP: K. Hunt, M. Carter, E. Moore, D. Peoples-Jones

Patriots @ Steelers (+1) 1 p.m. (O/U 40)

Patriots

What a disaster in New England, absolutely no good vibes on offense here. Mac Jones hit the injury report with back spasms, but even if healthy I don’t see the Pats moving the football. I can see using a Hunter Henry or Jakobi Meyers for a great ROI, since they will see their fair share of targets at a discount in salary.

Steelers

The Pittsburgh defense carried the team to an upset on the road in Cincinnati, picking off Burrow four times and recovering a forced fumble. New England should be a walk in the park compared to the defending AFC champs, even without a player of the year T J Watt. Pittsburgh may have to pass more than run in this one after Najee had an ankle stepped on and may see less snaps out of precaution. Diontae Johnson commanded the target share, but I do like Claypool as well, who can also be used in the running game.

Cash: D. Johnson

GPP: H. Henry, J. Meyers, C. Claypool, PIT DST

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 44.5)

Dolphins

Tyreek Hill picked up right where he left off in Kansas City burning cornerbacks (8REC for 94YDS) and seeing plenty of targets (12). On the other side, Waddle took one to the house ( 4 REC or 69YDS and 1 TD). Even though Baltimore does have a solid defense, Tua is sitting pretty. Until we see somebody that can figure out the genius of head coach Mike McDaniels, let’s roll with the fins before they get too pricey.

Ravens

If it was the weather in Jersey or playing without a new contract, Lamar didn’t look to run with the ball. He won’t have a choice in this match-up, Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are two bookends in the Fins’ secondary. Bateman and Duvernay would be a little risky so that would leave Andrews as a much safer target. Hopefully, we get a nice clear cool day for Jackson to stretch his legs in front of a home crowd and show them he needs to be paid.

Update: J. K. Dobbins is not expected to play.

Cash: T. Hill, T.Tagovailoa, L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: J. Waddle

Colts @ Jaguars (+4) 1 p.m. (O/U 46.5)

Colts

Indy barely tied the Texans rallying in the second half behind Michael Pittman’s (9REC/121YDS/1TD) stat line and Jonathon Taylor’s 161 yards rushing, 14 receiving from 4 grabs, and a touchdown as well. Not much to say about the number-one ranked running back paired with an up-and-coming number-one receiver, lock it up. But hold the phone. We may need to pivot to Paris Campbell after Pittman showed up late in the week with a quad injury. Regardless of his price this slate ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) he’s too tempting to pick up. Cash if Pittman sits out, GPP if he plays fellas.

Update: M. Pittman out! Heavy work load for Taylor and P. Campbell time!

Jaguars

The Jags held their own at Washington, putting points on the board. A surprise to that happening was the re-emergence of James Robinson who recovered from a torn Achilles to take back his job from Etienne. Another fact newly signed Christian Kirk is earning his living. Because Jacksonville may again be playing from behind, Kirk could see another 12 targets and catch for over 100 yards, with Zay Jones too who quietly saw 9 targets on 83 % of the snaps.

Cash: J. Taylor, M. Pittman, C. Kirk

GPP: Z. Jones, J. Robinson, P. Campbell (Cash if Pittman plays)

Commanders @ Lions (-2.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 49.5)

Commanders

Wentz gets another great match-up on paper in Detroit, who gave up 38 points to Philadelphia last week. We just can’t ignore that he threw for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns against Jacksonville, yet still priced under $6K on DraftKings. It was nice to see Curtis Samuel get back into the mix again (20 PPR FPTS.) finally, who is a head coach Ron Rivera favorite and will stay on the field. ‘Scary’ Terry McClaurin was quiet as the rookie Johan Dotson scored twice, but we may see the roles reverse this week as he lines up across Amani Oruwariye, who was annihilated by A J Brown. But my favorite take on this team is how they used Antonio Gibson, Wentz checked it down to him for 7 grabs and he rushed for just over 4 YPC, owning over 64 % of the snaps.

Lions

Detroit showed us some heart and won’t go down without a fight. Goff will have another shoot-out with Wentz as both teams struggle to play defense. Everyone can eat again in the Silver Dome, especially Amon Ra, who will draw the same coverage from Christian Kirk’s incredible game last week. If it really heats up, Chark may show up in a big game too. Swift did not practice today with an ankle injury, will keep you updated, might be a Jamaal Williams day again without the vulturing.

Cash: A. Gibson, A. St.-Brown, T. McClaurin, J. Williams ( if Swift is out or limited, otherwise tournament move)

GPP: J. Goff, C. Wentz, C. Samuel, D. Chark,

Falcons @ Rams (-10.5) 4:05 p.m. (O/U 47)

Falcons

Atlanta looked fresh before collapsing in the second half to the Saints in the opener. The run-heavy Arthur Smith offense was led by Mariota and Cordarrelle Patterson and very effectively. But if the Rams get up to a big lead early, Mariota will be forced to play catch-up. A nice bounce-back spot for Pitts who was on a milk carton in week one. I wouldn’t attempt any Atlanta in cash games, strictly tournaments guys. If this game gets out of hand, we may see the backups out in the second half.

Rams

Get ready for a blood bath at SoFy Stadium. McVay was taking a beating all week from the LA press on how bad his team looked at home. He will have all the troops fired up including Allen Robinson who the Rams fans almost called an Amber Alert for. Stafford, Kupp, and Henderson are also a lock here, fade Akers for now until he’s out of the doghouse.

Cash: M, Stafford, C. Kupp, A. Robinson, D. Henderson

GPP: M. Mariota, C. Patterson, K. Pitts

Seahawks @ 49ERS (-10) 4:05 p.m. (O/U 42.5)

Seahawks

Genoooo…. The veteran had an excellent game, but not for a DFS Millimaker. Smith only threw for 195 yards and two touchdowns and added 18 yards rushing. The volume just is nowhere to be seen yet anywhere in Seattle, salaries need to drop on DK Metcalf and Lockett before I consider anything. Penny has shown some signs of burst, but I just don’t like the match-up. I’m going to stay away from Seattle on the road in a division game.

49ERS

Give Lance another chance. Soldier field was a giant slip-n-slide in a hurricane. Eli Mitchell fell on IR from the conditions most likely, so next man up is Jeff Wilson by default. Lance and Deebo will get involved in the run-game as well, Deebo being the best option. It’s looking like no Kittle again, dude can’t catch a break, Aiyuk would see an uptick in volume if in fact he can’t suit up.

Update: G. Kittle doubtful

Cash: D. Samuel, J. Wilson

GPP: T. Lance, B. Aiyuk

Bengals @ Cowboys (+8.5) 4:25 p.m. (O/U 42.5)

Bengals

Burrow will get his revenge for a poor 4 interception home opener. Ja’Maar Chase will see a lot of Trevon Diggs who gives up way too many big yardage plays, something Chase will exploit. Mixon will be money in the bank too, who will see all the goal line work and carries to chew up the clock. Stacking Mixon with the Cincinnati DST, Cooper Rush under center….I can’t scroll fast enough!

Cowboys

Last Halloween Rush actually did have a solid game, beating the Vikes with a (325 YDS/2TD/1INT) stat line, not bad. Cee Dee Lamb will get safety help and suffocated again, which may leave Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz open combining for a total of 18 targets in which they saw facing Tampa. Let’s stick to a GPP for Dallas, starters may get pulled if the game gets out of reach.

Cash: J. Chase, J. Burrow, J. Mixon, Bengals DST

GPP: D. Schultz, N. Brown

Texans @ Broncos (-10) 4:25 p.m. (O/U 46.5)

Texans

Houston facing a double-digit spread on the road and odds-makers are not giving the rebuilding Texans a chance. Davis Mills their second-year signal caller does take care of the ball, and may give Denver a run for their money. Don’t be too quick to shoot down rookie running back Dameon Pierce too soon. Denver’s front formations favor opposing backs in order to take away the deep ball. Coach Lovey Smith is old school, if he chooses to play “keep away” from Wilson he will look to utilize Pierce.

Broncos

Russell Wilson will be much better at Mile High against the young Texans and will be ready to cook. Getting beat in Seattle in front of his old teammates had to sting, believe me, he’ll make a statement this weekend. Courtland Sutton will look like a god by being shadowed by rookie Derek Stingley Jr. who allowed the Colts’ Michael Pittman ( 9 REC/121YDS/1TD) to look like Marvin Harrison. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon may both get a goal-line carry in this spot and pretty much anyone in orange is viable.

Cash: R. Wilson, C. Sutton, J. Williams

GPP: J. Jeudy, M. Gordon

Cardinals @ Raiders (-6) 4:25 p.m. (O/U 51.5)

Cardinals

Murray and the Cards are looking at 0-2 to start the season as a touchdown dog in Vegas. A win would need him to step up and the Raiders are easily beaten through the air. Chargers QB Justin Herbert lit them up ( 279 YDS and 3 TDs). Murray has that same capability and will need some help from his deep-threat college teammate Marquise Brown. Running back James Connor has been a big part of Arizona’s scheme and will definitely get a sizable role again in this Sin-City battle.

Raiders

Derek Carr has to be my go-to QB this week. Mid-range salary ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) that won’t break the bank, high ceiling, and a game script with shoot-out written all over it. He’s linked to top 5 receiver Davante Adams and tight end Darren Waller. Plus with running back specialist Brandon Bolden missing practice, Josh Jacobs should see most of the snaps and goal-line work. Finally, I think we see a bit more of Hunter Renfrow this game. He has the skill set and saw 84% of the snaps, it’s only a matter of when Josh McDaniels throws him a bone.

Cash: K. Murray, D. Carr, M. Brown, D. Adams, J. Connor, D. Waller

GPP: J. Jacobs, H. Renfrow

Cash Core 4

D. Carr/D. Adams/J. Mixon/M. Andrews

GPP Core 4

C. Wentz /T. McClaurin /J. Wilson/K. Pitts

Stacks

K.Murray / M. Brown (ARI); D. Carr / D. Adams / D. Waller (LV); R. Wilson / C. Sutton / J. Jeudy; (DEN)

J. Goff / A. St. Brown / D. Swift (if healthy) (DET); C. Wentz / T. McClaurin / A. Gibson (WSH)

J. Burrow / J. Chase / J. Mixon (CIN)

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stix Picks: Week 1 NFL DFS GPP Lineups for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. All that summer prep and season long drafts are done, it’s go time.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2022 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will USUALLY not be an article where I write a lot about Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $8,700 FD)

Patrick Mahomes under 10% in ownership projections is always something I’ll be interested in, let’s just say that to start. A lot of the DFS and fantasy community as a whole seem to be a bit down on Patrick Mahomes just because there’s no more Tyreek Hill. In my opinion, this is the most quality depth of pass catchers Mahomes has ever had and the AETY Model is expecting another monster year out of Mahomes.

In the model and any sportsbook you look at, Mahomes has the highest passing yard prop on the slate, by a decent margin going up against a brutal, Arizona secondary and an arguably worse pass rush now that Chandler Jones went to Las Vegas. I expect the Chiefs’ offense as a whole to come out with a bang (like they usually always do to start the season) and Mahomes to be the clear-cut QB1 on this slate. Bundle all of that, a slate-leading total (54 points), and a 6-8% ownership projection and we’re cooking with gas.

Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, James Conner, Trey McBride (if Zach Ertz is out, obviously, Ertz if he goes)

Trevor Lawrence ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD)

It wouldn’t be my style to not include a dumpster-dive 1% owned, cheap quarterback, so here we go. I’m going to have a good bit of exposure to Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack this weekend for the following reasons:

New Coaching Staff – Doug Pederson is one of the more pass-happy play callers in the NFL. Despite the obvious downside with Lawrence, the expected volume should be there.
New Weapons – the additions of Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram should greatly impact Lawrence’s ability to move the football despite a very weak offensive line.
Leverage! Leverage! Leverage! – The whole DFS world is lining up to play the Commanders defense, despite Chase Young being on the PUP list. If and when the Jaguars offense scores points, you’re not only getting incredibly low-owned NFL DFS GPP production, you’re passing the majority of the field as they lose points. There are very few weeks of the season where the AETY Model will tell us to stack against the nut-chalk defense… this week is one of them!

Yes, it’s more than likely Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars lay an egg on Sunday, but at 1% ownership, I’ll heavily consider starting my NFL DFS GPP lineups with Lawrence (especially in the early-only slate) and getting exposure to a safer, higher-upside quarterback in my cash game lineup.

Stacking Options: Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram
Run-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Mitch Trubisky, Davis Mills

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

This is likely the best matchup on the slate for a running back: in the dome, against a Falcons’ unit that likely has the worst defensive line in football. On DraftKings specifically, we get the pass catching upside (the AETY Model projects Kamara for over 4 receptions, 35 yards receiving, and the team’s third highest equity in the red-zone passing game) which is always a nice benefit. As long as this game stay’s close (currently a 5-point spread), Kamara should be in for a NFL DFS GPP field day under offensive guru Pete Carmichael’s offense paired with an ownership projection under 10%.

P.S. we likely do not have to worry about Sean Payton’s ridiculous obsession with getting Taysom Hill touches in the red-zone anymore. This is Kamara’s job.

James Conner ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD)

With Rondale Moore out, the AETY Model seems to now love the floor and ceiling for James Conner’s role in the passing game. This was already my favorite game to stack and now we’ll add another piece to the back-and-forth with a 3-down back who’s going to be a focal point of the Cardinals’ offense.

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

It’s not the best of matchups; he isn’t the safest of players in terms of health; he’s not “under the radar”… I’m still going to take the bait on the seriously low price-tag of a 3-down, pass-catching back in an improved offense. I simply look at it this way, play Saquon Barkley when he’s healthy and play Saquon Barkley when he’s cheap. There is not a whole lot of data to support going all-in on Barkley, but I trust Brian Daboll to find a way to get his best player the football early and often.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

If you read the Mahomes’ section of the NFL DFS GPP Week 1 article (and more below), you’ll know I’m all in Kansas City Chiefs. The Arizona Cardinals defense is brutal on paper and I highly doubt they will exceed my already low expectations. This game is going to be a shoot-out and I do trust Andy Reid to lean on Edwards-Helaire for around 60-65% of the snaps. I NEED to have exposure to the AETY Model’s highest expected scoring offense in every way that I can. If it isn’t Mahomes throwing for a touchdown, it will be a CEH rushing touchdown (maybe a passing TD to Edwards-Helaire if we’re really lucky).

The price-tag is just way too low for a guy with significant touchdown equity on the best offense in football… and he’s going to be around 5% owned.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, AJ Dillon, Eli Mitchell

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)

If Adams were still on the Packers, he’d be projected for 20% or higher ownership in this matchup, but he’s sitting at 10-12% now. The Chargers are likely to play a ton of zone coverage and Davante Adams kills zone coverage. The red-zone equity may go down a little bit due to Rodgers’ not peppering him with 2 targets minimum on every red-zone opportunity, but the volume will be there for Adams. He’s projected to lead this slate in receiving (surprise to no one), according to the AETY Model.

Deebo Samuel (7,400 DK / $8,400 FD)

We don’t need to get to into detail here, Deebo Samuel is one of the best fantasy football players. He’s going to be under 10% owned in an absolute cakewalk matchup. Trey Lance will be forced to get Deebo Samuel involved in the passing game and we already know the rushing upside. He signed his contract and he’s ready to roll and roll!

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

Getting exposure to the Chargers @ Raiders game is probably priority number two for me this weekend (second to KC/AZ), and I’ll likely be starting said exposure with Keenan Allen or Austin Ekeler. I always love Keenan Allen inside against the Raiders’ zone defense where he’ll face off against a young, unproven, Nate Hobbs. Keenan Allen still has PLENTY of game left in him and we’ll see it on Sunday.

Tyreek Hill ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD)

Sub $7,000 on DraftKings for Tyreek Hill is incredibly attractive. Mike McDaniel simply abuses his number one offensive threat on a weekly basis and this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Not to mention Tua’s love to key on one receiver almost exclusively (last year we were fine paying $7,000 for Jaylen Waddle)… this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Better yet, this New England Patriots’ secondary is absolute trash and they’re likely going to play a ton of man coverage. Good luck, Patriots!

Christian Kirk ($5,100 DK / $5,800 FD)

Similar to the Lazard situation, but not quite to that extent… Christian Kirk is the clear WR1 on the Jaguars, and yet he’s priced like a mid-tier WR2 (I understand the situation isn’t sexy, but the price is). This matchup is absolutely one to get excited about as Washington nickel-corner, Brandon St. Juste, is arguably the worst cornerback in the NFL. On the other side of things, I don’t see Jacksonville putting up much of a fight on defense, which can lead to a low-key, disgusting shootout for NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Chase Claypool ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

After further review and hearing more skepticism about Diontae Johnson’s health, I’m going to officially name my 1% owned NFL DFS GPP Wide Receiver of the Week, Chase Claypool. The gamescript should be incredibly positive for Claypool with or without Diontae Johnson and we need to take advantage of the tunnel-vision Mitch Trubisky has for his big bodied receivers (and a love for slot receivers). Trubisky will want to move the ball deep down field (he always has) and trust the ability of the monster, Claypool to go up and get it.

Assuming they move Claypool all across the formation, we’ll get a lot of Claypool with a 7-inch advantage on nicker corner, Mike Hilton. As long as the Bengals come out firing and move Pittsburgh into a more pass-heavy approach, Claypool is a steal at these price-tags.

Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DK / $5,400 FD)

HOMER ALERT! Lol, if any of you have followed me before, you know I’ve had a man crush on Mecole Hardman. Yes, he’s let me down 99 times out of 100, but I truly believe he is the only wide receiver on this roster who can handle the vacant route tree of Tyreek Hill. No, he’s not Tyreek Hill, but he doesn’t need to be at this price. The Cardinals’ secondary is absolute trash and Hardman will be schemed to take advantage of every one of them as he’s moved all around the field. Hardman will be the WR1 for Kansas City in Week 1.

Honorable Mention: Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Nico Collins, Joshua Palmer, Marquise Brown

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

I’m going to be quite heavy on Travis Kelce, but I do not think he is a “must-have” in terms of salary. Here are the others I’ll be focusing on rostering.

Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)
Kyle Pitts ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD)
Darren Waller ($5,400 DK ONLY)
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
Brevin Jordan ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stix Picks: Week 1 NFL DFS GPP Lineups for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $8,700 FD)

Trevor Lawrence ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD)

New Coaching Staff – Doug Pederson is one of the more pass-happy play callers in the NFL. Despite the obvious downside with Lawrence, the expected volume should be there.
New Weapons – the additions of Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram should greatly impact Lawrence’s ability to move the football despite a very weak offensive line.
Leverage! Leverage! Leverage! – The whole DFS world is lining up to play the Commanders defense, despite Chase Young being on the PUP list. If and when the Jaguars offense scores points, you’re not only getting incredibly low-owned NFL DFS GPP production, you’re passing the majority of the field as they lose points. There are very few weeks of the season where the AETY Model will tell us to stack against the nut-chalk defense… this week is one of them!

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

James Conner ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD)

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)

Deebo Samuel (7,400 DK / $8,400 FD)

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

Tyreek Hill ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD)

Christian Kirk ($5,100 DK / $5,800 FD)

Chase Claypool ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DK / $5,400 FD)

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

I’m going to be quite heavy on Travis Kelce, but I do not think he is a “must-have” in terms of salary. Here are the others I’ll be focusing on rostering.

Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)
Kyle Pitts ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD)
Darren Waller ($5,400 DK ONLY)
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
Brevin Jordan ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Premium

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Welcome back to the NFL season, we have a loaded 13-game slate to chop up! Hey everybody I’m Joe DiCarlo, a new addition to the WinDailySports.com DFS writing squad, and welcome to my NFL Week One breakdown! I’m happy to be on board and ready to help you build some money-making lineups. After a long and busy offseason around the league, so let’s start analyzing these games…

Sunday Main Slate 9/11/22

Eagles @ Lions, 1 p.m. (+4) (O/U 49)

Eagles

The Eagles are in Detroit for what looks to be a slam dunk for Jalen Hurts to show off his new skill set and shiny new receiver A. J. Brown. Great stack, especially for cash games. Tight end Dallas Goedert will be in play too, since Hurts prefers throwing to the big fellas. We could also see a sprinkle of Devonta Smith but I think he is just a little too priced up, let’s not carried away. I’m fading running back Miles Sanders, he’s banged up with a hamstring, plus I’m feeling a Kenny Gainwell breakout this year. His salary is too cheap to pass up, and could easily produce three times his value against Detroit.

Lions

The Lions’ defense may still look bad on paper, but they will still put points on the scoreboard. Having one of the strongest O’lines in the league will help running back D’Andre Swift get back to the fantasy promise land again. PPR machine Amon-Ra St. Brown racked up double-digit targets in the final six games last season and quarterback Jared Goff came out saying he is his now go-to guy. To complete the trifecta is T. J. Hockenson if he can stay on the field. Goff loves to check it down and his tight end could benefit from it.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, A. J. Brown, Dallas Goedert

GPP: Kenny Gainwell, Amon-Ra St. Brown

Saints @ Falcons, 1 p.m. (+5.5) (O/U 42.5)

Saints

New Orleans looks to be at full strength on offense to start the year and will be getting eased back in facing Atlanta. Jameis Winston should do well in his first game back from an ACL tear, the Falcons bled out close to 4,000 air yards and 31 passing touchdowns in 2021. Receivers have a sweet match-up especially Michael Thomas, ($5,700 DK/$6,200 FD) but he’s a little risky since he hasn’t suited up in over a year and a half. But Alvin Kamara you can set and forget as one of your RB’s. He’s in one of the most smash spots this weekend projected to hit at least 20 FPTS.

Falcons

Atlanta has a futures win total (O/U 4.5) across many of the sportsbooks…news flash, they are tanking in 2022! For this matchup, I’m out on everybody for DFS. Maybe a sprinkle of a little Kyle Pitts, the only proven pass-catcher on the squad. I can’t trust Marriota’s legs yet, especially against a Saints’ number-one-ranked run defense that averaged only 3.7 YPA. I can’t resist that he’s just so inexpensive, and in a game as a such a huge dog, tremendous value can be made from Mariota even in garbage time.

Cash: A. Kamara, Saints DST

GPP: J. Winston, M. Thomas, K. Pitts, M. Mariota

Jaguars @ Commanders, 1 p.m. (-3) (O/U 44)

Jaguars

Year two for Trevor Lawrence will begin in Washington under new head coach Doug Pederson, who will look to reignite the dreadful offense in Jacksonville. Christian Kirk was also signed in free agency and got a huge multi-year (overpaid) contract, so he should see most of Lawrence‘s targets. Now that running back James Robinson has been given the green light for Week One, the Travis Etienne hype train has pumped its breaks for a minute. I’m out on the Jags except for TE, he’s worth the flyer at ($5,600 DK/$6,200 FD). Him and Trevor had a bro-mance going on back at Clemson and we may see Etienne get peppered with check-downs out of the backfield.

Commanders

Washington has something to be excited about this year… a slight upgrade at QB and a team name finally! Carson Wentz will start for his third team in three years and I just don’t feel any good vibes yet, but come on Jacksonville? The same team that pulled off the biggest upset of the year and cost him his job. Best believe Wentz will be out and ready to roll, way too cheap and a flyer for GPP. Rookie Johan Dotson has already formed some chemistry with him and has already solidified a starting spot. After all the chatter around Washington about Bryan Robinson, I can see Antonio Gibson playing with a chip on his shoulder. This week up against one of the worst run-defenses of 2021 (24th overall against the run; 125 rushing YPG.), Gibson will have a second chance to prove himself worthy of being the top back in town.

Cash: Antonio Gibson, T. Etienne

GPP: Johan Dotson, C. Wentz, T. Lawrence

Colts @ Texans, 1 p.m. (+ 8) ( O/U 45.5)

Colts

Indy traded away a third-round draft pick for a bargain with veteran QB Matt Ryan. Opposing defenses will have to respect the Colts’ passing game even more, which should open up the box for bell cow running back Jonathon Taylor. Given the eight-point spread and the Texans’ reputation for spilling out points, the Colts will lean on the run. A few darts I like are tight-end Mo Alie-Cox and rookie wide-out Alec Pierce, although the Colts’ alpha Michael Pittman will line up across from rookie Derek Stingley Jr.and is way under-priced, lock him up as a WR.

Texans

Sophomore quarterback Davis Mills could be chasing a double-digit lead by the Colts at halftime and forced to throw. But go-to guy Brandin Cooks may see a lot of Colts’ veteran corner Stephon Gilmore, sending Second-year receiver Nico Collins more balls in his direction. I didn’t forget about Houston’s stand-out rookie Dameon Pierce, leave him alone for the opener. Houston will be playing from behind mostly and forced to throw it more, and Rex Burkhead is their passing-down back for now.

Cash: J. Taylor, M. Pittman

GPP: N. Collins, M. Alie-Cox, A. Pierce

Browns @ Panthers 1 p.m. (-2.5)(O/U 41.5)

Browns

We gotta love the NFL and their scheduling… Browns will face their former number-one overall pick, Baker Mayfield, after deciding on Deshaun Watson in the off-season. Don’t get me wrong, I love the Baker revenge game narrative, but I feel Cleveland will show up to play some solid defense. Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney will show up and keep Mayfield honest in this reunion. I predict low ownership for the Browns DST, sweet for GPP. And by the way, are we serious with Jacoby Brissett? Week 13 can not get here any soon for Watson to suit up. I have no interest this week in anybody on offense for Cleveland… Gimme Carolina’s D!

Panthers

We all knew Baker would win the job in Carolina and he deserves it. He’s not known for his numbers really, it’s his competitiveness. But the numbers will align this Sunday, he is way underpriced for one of the biggest games of his career. He’s got one of the most efficient receivers in D J Moore and the most electrifying players in the game of Christian McCaffrey at his disposal. Baker will look to put on a show and these two will benefit 100 percent.

Cash: C. McCaffrey, D. Moore, Carolina DST

GPP: B. Mayfield, Browns DST

Ravens @ Jets 1 p.m. (+7) (O/U 44.5)

Ravens

Let’s get one thing straight… the Ravens want to run the ball, but they have NOBODY to hand the ball off to. Kenyon Drake, Mike Davis? Is Dobbins going to be ready this week? Nope. Baltimore’s RB1 is Lamar Jackson, period. everyone else in the backfield since he took over has been second fiddle. The Jets were horrid against the run last year (24th, 125 YPG.) Don’t try to be cute and slip Mike Davis in your lineups either, not worth the risk if you ask me. Jackson will still have to throw too, and why not to his favorite target who finished in 2021 as TE1, Mark Andrews. Baltimore could have struck gold in the draft with rookie tight end Isaiah Likely, who had an awesome training camp and preseason…($2,500 on DK is a no-brainer) Second-year receiver Rashod Bateman should also see an uptick in usage, but he may have New York’s first round pick Sauce Gardner shadowing him.

Jets

New York is still not 100 percent on who will be starting at quarterback yet, I’m leaning towards Joe Flacco and the Jets do not want to rush Zach Wilson back too soon from surgery. Flacco is so priced down and I would throw him in a GPP. Starting at home against his former team where he won Super Bowl MVP, we just need 15 FPTS. to hit value. He would be surrounded by young talent, so Zach please sit this one out.

Update: Zach ruled out!

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: Joe Flacco, I. Likely

Pats @ Dolphins 1 p.m. (-3) (O/U 47)

Patriots

Former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels landed a head coaching gig in Vegas, so here comes Joe Judge and Matt Patricia to the rescue. Head coach Bill Belichick never reveals anything to the public, so we can only speculate on their drafts and roster moves. Fellas it looks to me the only safe play is Mac Jones as a cheap GPP for now, but with so many other ways to go this week, why stress over drafting a Patriot in DFS? You could also go Rhamondre Stevenson too, with him in the news as getting all the passing down work and Damien Harris in his last year of his contract. A DeVante Parker revenge game in the mix perhaps? At ($4,800 DK/$5,700 FD) sure why not…even better without Byron Jones already ruled out.

Dolphins

Many eyes will be on QB Tua Tagolvailoa on Sunday afternoon. Forty-Niners’ former O.C. Mike McDaniel brought over some serious talent, trading for Tyreek Hill to line up opposite second-year sensation Jaylen Waddle, who may be still slightly banged up. The Cheetah (Hill) will hold the lion-share of the action for Miami if Waddle is not fully healed. The Pats also have a lot of inexperience in the secondary, Tyreek and Tua will look to exploit them in the open field. If you believe in the talent around Tua than you have to like him overall.

Cash: T. Hill

GPP: T. Tagovailoa, D. Parker, R. Stevenson, M. Jones,

Niners @ Bears 1 p.m.(+7) (O/U 41.5)

49ers

San Fran is rolling out with Trey Lance to take over the reigns for Jimmy G finally, but I feel he will have a few growing pains in his debut as the starter. Trey will need to get Deebo the ball if the Niners want to put any points on the board. Samuel is risky this week in what looks like a low-scoring game, but he is the centerpiece of this offense. The Bears have made some improvements on defense, stocking up in the draft and free-agency. Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn are still in town and will be waiting for their shot at Lance too. Another team I’d like to wait and see what happens before I invest in DFS, let’s be patient guys and gals.

Bears

Now everything I just wrote above, this Bears DST is smelling pretty good right? Trey Lance’s first start on the road at Soldier Field, I can see picks and sacks all day. But than Chicago has their own problems developing at the QB position with Justin Fields. He can easily have as bad a day as Lance against the Niners, who are no slouches on defense either. Pick your poison I’m fine with either or defenses, Chicago is extremely cheaper ($2,200 on DK, $3,800 on FD)

Update: G. Kittle may sit out

Cash: D. Samuel

GPP: Bears DST, 49ERS DST,

Steelers @ Bengals 1 p.m. (-6.5) (O/U 44.5)

Steelers

Pittsburgh named Trubisky as their starter with less than a week until the season opener, and he gets the defending AFC champs on the road. YIkes, way too many unknowns again here in this game. We still know that Steeler O-Line is shaky, so Mitch will need to use his legs or get rid of the ball fast. Guys, he, is dirt cheap ($5,000 DK/$6,400 FD).He will produce in fantasy because of his scrambling ability, let’s try him in a GPP. The Bengals as your defense would be pretty sneaky too, they have been very underrated and given a lot of headaches to opposing offenses all last year. Tight end Pat Freiermuth did look good catching 5 balls for 80 yards in August, and he is affordable on both formats too. If Mitch has to get rid of it quickly, Freiermuth could be a PPR hero.

Bengals

Cincinnati announced that franchise quarterback will be a go to start the season after having an emergency appendectomy in late July. The bad news is that as much as I like Joe Burrow, we can’t justify paying his mid-range salary against a divisional opponent. Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are all in the same boat, too expensive to start. Oh…well what about the new tight end in town Hayden Hurst? He is definitely on my radar at that discount ($3,300 on DK, $4,900 on FD).

Cash: Pat Freiermuth

GPP: Hayden Hurst, Bengals DST, M. Trubisky

Chiefs @ Cardinals 4:25 p.m.(+4.5) (O/U 54)

Chiefs

Here we go, now we’re talking with a 54 point total, a shoot-out in the desert! Mahomes and his new entourage of receivers want to come out guns blazing in this match-up. 159 targets left for Miami when they traded Tyreek Hill, so we love Kelce even more this year. Totally comfortable paying up on this stack. As for the new faces Ju Ju, MVS, and the rookie Skyy Moore, we can make it a double stack with a side of CEH. Across the board their price tags are reasonable, but just don’t get too carried away.

Cardinals

Kyler Murray got his pay day this off-season, it’s showtime. The former number one overall pick in 2019 has his work cut out for him this Sunday and will need to keep up the pace with Mahomes. He’s not as weaponized and will need some help from James Connor in the ground game. KC has been suspect to the rush, and in PPR, Connor could benefit this game. Murray himself could scurry for chunks of runs which he’s been famous for.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, CEH, J. Smith-Schuster, K. Murray, J. Connor

GPP: MVS, S. Moore

Packers @ Vikings 4:25 p.m. (+1.5) (O/U 48)

Packers

Can the back-to-back reigning MVP return to greatness again without his main man Davante Adams? The water is still a little muddy in Green Bay for who will be favored by Aaron Rodgers. He has a couple rookies in Watson and Doubs, over-the-hill guys in Watkins and Cobb, Tonyan coming off an ACL, and Allen Lazard who recently started missing practice. In cash I’m not getting the warm and fuzzies from any of them, only Rodgers alone(super sneaky for a GPP). A little history from not too long ago, before Adams emerged on the scene The Pack were pretty run-heavy. Their O-line today is one of the best in the NFL, so they may just rip a page out of from 2015. Aaron Jones and A J Dillon probably the best one-two punch there is and Green Bay may utilize it until the passing game clears up.

Vikings

Minnesota hired the Rams’ O.C. Kevin O’Connell as their new head coach this off-season, who plans on opening up the passing game. So much hype is over Justin Jefferson becoming the 2022 version of Cooper Kupp and the kid has the talent to make it happen. Going up against one of the best corners Jaire Alexander and in a new offensive scheme, we can’t risk all that salary this time. Pivotting to Adam Thielen may be the smarter play here, who is cheaper and viable in the red-zone.

Cash: A. Jones

GPP: A. Rodgers, A. Dillon, A. Thielen

Giants @ Titans 4:25 p.m. (-5.5) (O/U 43.5)

Giants

New York made some changes in the front office and at head coach by signing Brian Dabal, Buffalo’s former O.C. who molded the number one QB Josh Allen. So will Daniel Jones be the next Allen? For his measly salary, he’s worth the risk. 3X value is foreseeable against this Tennessee defense (25th in PaYDA/G in 2021) Saquon Barkley has been pumped up by the media, word out of camp is he will be more utilized on offense, especially in the passing game. The salary is mid-range and our model shows him to reach decent value (16.5 DK/14.7 FD FPTS.) Tough match-up though… Number one ranked rushing defense. Let’s hope Dabal keeps his word and throws it to his stud in the backfield.

Titans

After losing to the Bengals and throwing 4 picks in the AFC Wild Card game, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be out for blood. The Giants are even worse this year in their secondary, cutting loose James Bradburry, replacing him with former Titan Adoree Jackson. Derrick Henry is also back at full strength, and is set to regain his seat at the throne, owning all the goal line work.Tennessee could get up to a comfy lead in this one, and he’ll be used to eat up that clock.

Cash: D. Henry, S. Barkley

GPP: R. Tannehill, D. Jones

Raiders @ Chargers 4:25 p.m. (-3.5) (O/U 52.5)

Raiders

Gotta love the league and the way they schedule, a rematch of the sudden death game that put Vegas into the playoffs back in January. Derek Carr led the way to victory last season, but this time he is bringing more to the table…his college buddy Davante Adams. This game needs no intro, get these two in a stack, and let’s not forget about Waller, the Chargers were dead last defending the tight end in 2021. We like all three here and have them locked in for 3X value.

Chargers

LA lost that game on bad play calling, not by their performance by any means. Justin Herbert and company have been counting down the days to sink their teeth into this lousy Raider defense again. Keenan Allen is up in age but showing no signs of regression. Mike Williams got paid and has a huge ceiling. Ekeler will ball out as usual with his safe floor. It’s ON in LA to cap off the afternoon.

Cash/GPP: J. Herbert, K. Allen, M. Williams, A. Ekeler, D. Adams, D. Carr, D. Waller

Cash Core 4

A. Kamara, L. Jackson, T. Kelce, T. Hill

GPP Core 4

A. Rodgers, P. Freiermuth, D J Moore, A J Dillon

Stacks

P. Mahomes/T. Kelce J. Herbert/K.Allen/M.Williams B. Mayfield/D. Moore/CMC

D. Carr/D. Adams/D. Waller

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord hit me up @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

The wait is over. Football is finally here and with that brings us the NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Check back in closer to Week 1 kickoff for updated roster build notes. It’s still the Preseason and all hell can break loose at any moment!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

No need to overthink this one, we’re going right back to one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL under Offensive Coordinator, Joe Lombardi, in a projected shootout (total of 52 points) as the Raiders come to Los Angeles. The Raiders are very unlikely to play at the high pace they did in 2021 now that Josh McDaniels is in town, but this game will still offer a significant floor for all playmakers involved.

Despite a new Defensive Coordinator, Patrick Graham (who actually did a solid job with limited talent in New York), this Raiders’ secondary is still far from a threat to slow down Justin Herbert and this Chargers’ air attack. We’ve always attacked Trayvon Mullen and Rock Ya-Sin in the past and won’t stop doing so now. I do however respect the hell out of second year corner, Nate Hobbs (who will see a lot of Keenan Allen), so I’d rather get my exposure to the Chargers’ passing game with the man who dictates it and also has plenty of rushing upside. The floor is simply the highest for Herbert in Week 1.

Jalen Hurts ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD)

I’m going back to the well with 2021’s 4th highest Fantasy Points Per Game Quarterback in Jalen Hurts. To keep it simple, he’s a borderline RB2 most weeks with his legs, has a healthy and somewhat loaded team of pass catchers, arguably the best offensive line in football, and he’s facing the Detroit Lions. Although the Lions are a hard-nosed defense, they do not pose much of a threat to Jalen Hurts in cash lineups at this low of a price-tag.

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($9,100 DK / $10,200 FD)

You don’t really need a long paragraph or two from me to convince you to play Taylor in cash against one of the worst defensive lines in football. The Colts are an 8-point road favorite for a reason. They should have a solid handle on this game utilizing their star running back early and often.

Austin Ekeler ($8,200 DK / $9,400 FD)

If you’re not using Herbert in your cash build, I’d advise getting a share of this offense and there’s no better option (outside of Herbert) than Austin Ekeler. He may not wow you with his rushing statistics but his consistent workload in the passing game gives up that floor (15% expected target share with significant upside) that we are looking for in our cash builds.

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

We’re getting one of the best 3-down running backs in the game at a discount in Week 1 against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. There is really no threat to Kamara’s expected production at this moment so take the savings and ride a workhorse back who’s AETY Model projection has him for over a 70% snap share yet again in 2022.

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

The ultimate value running back in Week 1 is my boy (yes, I’m biased here), Saquon Barkley. Barkley is finally entering a NFL Season with 100% health and absolutely no one on the depth chart capable of taking meaningful snaps away from him. I love the fact that there’s a successful offensive mind (and an improved offensive line) now running this offense in Brian Daboll and I trust that he will put Barkley in a position to succeed right off the bat when they upset the Titans in Tennessee. Saquon is a cash lock for me in Week 1.

Antonio Gibson ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD)

Without Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson becomes a damn-near cash game staple. Don’t reinvent the wheel, take the value and run (on DraftKings).

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Dameon Pierce

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD)

Similar to Jonathan Taylor, we do not need to deep dive into Justin Jefferson’s NFL DFS cash game appeal. He’s one of the top wide receivers in the NFL and now playing in one of the most proven pass-happy systems in the league under new Head Coach, Kevin O’Connell. The Green Bay defense is much improved across the board (and they were already good ending the 2021 season) so I wouldn’t expect a massive output out of Jefferson in Week 1, but O’Connell will find ways to scheme Justin Jefferson into success just like he did for Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Odell Beckham in the past.

If you cannot afford Jefferson, I do not hate pivoting down to Adam Thielen at a discount. This game may not have the full pace most of the betting public wants it to have, but there will be plenty of fantasy production for both of these offenses.

Brandin Cooks ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

There’s nothing sexy about Houston’s offense, we all know that. But… as mentioned in the Jonathan Taylor writeup, I fully expect the Colts to have a good handle on this game from the kickoff and therefore leading into a very positive gamescript for the Texans’ receiving core. As much as I love and believe in Nico Collins, Davis Mills has tunnel vision on Brandin Cooks. In the 11 games that Mills was under center as a starter in 2021, Brandin Cooks was targeted at a 27%+ clip. You simply won’t find many wideouts with a 20% target share let alone 27% priced in the 6K range.

Maybe DJ Moore, but I’ll wait to see it (assuming Baker Mayfield earns the starting job) after they play one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Marquise Brown ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD)

Going with the ownership here now that Rondale Moore is out. Way too cheap and a damn-near cash game lock.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD)

Mainly a DraftKings only play, but if you’re not paying up for Jonathan Taylor, absolutely lock in Michael Pittman Jr. Matt Ryan turns his top wideout into fantasy gold on an annual basis and I don’t see that changing now that he is in Indianapolis. This is likely a gamescript built for Jonathan Taylor, but at this price, we’ll happily take 6 receptions, 75 yards, and a strong implied probability of a touchdown.

Rashod Bateman ($5,300 DK / $6,100 FD)

Another WR1 priced in the mid-tier. This offense will still run through Mark Andrews and I prefer to spend up to him at the TE position if I’m looking to get a piece of the Ravens’ offense, but Bateman is way too cheap for the expected floor he will bring to NFL DFS players. The Jets’ secondary still has a lot to prove, but they will no doubt be much improved from their previous dumpster fire efforts.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, Christian Kirk

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)

He’s the best fantasy tight-end in football. If you can afford him, you play him. My only concern here is the Jets’ ability to push the pace to any degree.

Travis Kelce ($6,600 DK / $8,000 FD)

He’s still Travis Kelce and there’s no Tyreek Hill. Kelce will no doubt be the top target in the Chiefs’ explosive passing attack. The total in this game currently sits at 54-points which will likely lead the slate in terms of expected production.

T.J. Hockenson ($4,900 DK / $5,700 FD)

PLAY HIM WHILE HE’S HEALTHY! I know Amon-Ra St. Brown was the sexy fantasy piece for the Detroit Lions to end the 2021 season, but when he was on the field, T.J. Hockenson was the main target for Jared Goff. The AETY Model projects a monster 21% target share for Hockenson when he’s on the field in 2022 and playing him Week 1 against one of the worst teams in defending the tight-end in 2021 is something I’m excited to do.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Kyle Pitts

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins
Washington Commanders
New York Giants

NEW: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots and post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Jalen Hurts
Saquon Barkley
Michael Pittman
Christian Kirk
Travis Kelce

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

Check back in closer to Week 1 kickoff for updated roster build notes. It’s still the Preseason and all hell can break loose at any moment!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

Jalen Hurts ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD)

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($9,100 DK / $10,200 FD)

Austin Ekeler ($8,200 DK / $9,400 FD)

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

Antonio Gibson ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD)

Without Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson becomes a damn-near cash game staple. Don’t reinvent the wheel, take the value and run (on DraftKings).

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Dameon Pierce

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD)

Brandin Cooks ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

Marquise Brown ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD)

Going with the ownership here now that Rondale Moore is out. Way too cheap and a damn-near cash game lock.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD)

Rashod Bateman ($5,300 DK / $6,100 FD)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)

He’s the best fantasy tight-end in football. If you can afford him, you play him. My only concern here is the Jets’ ability to push the pace to any degree.

Travis Kelce ($6,600 DK / $8,000 FD)

T.J. Hockenson ($4,900 DK / $5,700 FD)

Defense / Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins
Washington Commanders
New York Giants

NEW: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots and post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Jalen Hurts
Saquon Barkley
Michael Pittman
Christian Kirk
Travis Kelce

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Conference Finals – Stix Picks

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Let’s get right into it for the Conference Finals NFL DFS slate. This week’s article will simply be a ranking at each position for the players in my DFS player pool.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

Cincinnati @ Kansas City (-7) / TOTAL (53.5)
San Francisco @ Los Angeles (-3.5) / TOTAL (45.5)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes – regardless of price, Mahomes will be my quarterback this week on all NFL DFS formats. There’s no one on the slate with his floor or his upside. The rushing upside of late is also an added bonus to the best quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes dictates the outcome of this game and is gamescript proof in a game with a significantly higher expected pace than the late game in LA.

Ownership projections have Patrick Mahomes sitting around 45% owned and I think that’s about 20% too low. 55% of the field is in a rough path to the leaderboards if they’re going to fade Mahomes.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford

NFL DFS Running Backs

Joe Mixon – the obvious number one back on this slate is Joe Mixon. He’s the only running back on this slate with 20+ carry upside out of the backfield and 5+ receptions in the passing game. Like many, the Bengals will need to control the pace the best they can to keep Mahomes off the field as their offensive line simply cannot handle a shootout pace like we saw the Bills do last week. The Chiefs’ defensive line is healthy and will certainly limit what Mixon can do on the ground, but I’m most interested in Mixon due to his passing game abilities, especially against a heavy blitz team like the Chiefs.

Projected ownership: 5%
Elijah Mitchell – like the Bengals, the only hope the 49ers have is to control the pace of this game and have it play out at a snail’s pace with 25+ carries for Elijah Mitchell. I don’t love taking opposing running backs against the Rams but on a two-game slate, there’s not many options. Mitchell is a fine play who may certainly be game-scripted out a bit if the Rams jump on it early.

Projected ownership: 35%
Cam Akers – it appears that Sean McVay has officially given Cam Akers the keys to the Rams’ backfield castle while giving him over 80% of the snaps for 20 carries last week (Sony Michel 20% and just three touches). I do think we’ll see a bit more Michel this week if the Rams get ahead by two scores early (I think they do), but the price-tag of Akers is too-low to avoid when he’s one of the few running backs who have pass-catching upside.

Projected ownership: 55%

Honorable Mention: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (20% ownership projection), Jerrick McKinnon

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp – best WR option on the NFL DFS slate.

Projected ownership: 45%
Ja’Maar Chase – we talked about Ja’Maar Chase’s success against high-blitz rate teams all season long and there’s no reason to shy away from that now. He’s my clear WR2 on this slate who averaged 24.4 fantasy points per game against the AETY Model’s highest expected blitz rate opponents.

Projected ownership: 35%
Tyreek Hill – not a whole lot to say about Tyreek Hill, besides “thank you” for last week’s performance. Hill can always break a slate and certainly has some excellent matchups every way he lines up against this Bengals’ secondary. I honestly will not have a lot of exposure to him and that scares the hell out of me.

Projected ownership: 50%
Tee Higgins – Higgins’ price is just too low for the expected volume in a game where the Bengals’ will likely be chasing points from the get-go. Like Ja’Maar, Higgins has excelled in all aspects of the game this season but has had some of his better games against high-blitz teams, averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game in those matchups and a relatively higher red-zone share than Ja’Maar Chase. Tee Higgins will have a lot of single coverage with Charvarius Ward, which is something the AETY Model says to attack.

Projected ownership: 35%
Odell Beckham Jr. – Love the upside and pay-down off of Cooper Kupp. Odell Beckham will have a lot of single coverage and we’ve seen the red-zone targets take a massive swing upward of late… at the cheap price-tag, Odell Beckham offers us a lot of NFL DFS upside at significantly less ownership than most of the top tier wideouts on the slate.

Projected ownership: 20%
Deebo Samuel – I’m having a very hard time getting to Deebo Samuel this week after he was significantly banged up against the Packers’ last week and the lack of targets in the passing game. Like Tyreek Hill, he can break the slate and a fade scares me, but I’m likely to fade. He’s a stud and please do not let me scare you away from him… just letting you know where I’m at.

Projected ownership: 35%
Jauan Jennings – Jennings is surprisingly trailing Deebo Samuel by only four targets over the past seven games for the 49ers and is also active in the red-zone packages. With a list full of studs, I needed to add some value to this section of the article and I can’t think of anyone better (besides maybe one of the cheaper KC wideouts) than Jennings. The AETY Model gives a nice upgrade to slot receivers against the Rams and Jennings fits my narrative of the 49ers having to play catch-up to Stafford and the Rams.

Projected ownership: 5%
Byron Pringle – it’s hard to ignore his recent production and he’s a stackable piece to the only quarterback I’ll play this weekend. Pringle is seeing the majority of his work out of the slot and that’s the strong suit for the Bengals’ secondary in Mike Hilton.

Projected ownership: 25%
Mecole Hardman – I’m likely to full fade Byron Pringle in NFL DFS due to the heavy chalk on the “value wideout” and pivot down to Mecole Hardman. Hardman seems to be a feature on the Chiefs’ offense for gadget plays (which he certainly can provide significant upside through), but also running the majority of his snaps on the outside. There should be a handful of opportunities for Hardman to be on the outside in single coverage with one safety behind him (likely to shade towards Kelce/Hill)so… I’m calling for a Hardman long touchdown this weekend. Let’s go.

Projected ownership: 10%

Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk, Tyler Boyd

Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce – clear top tight-end on this NFL DFS slate.

Projected ownership: 50%
George Kittle – Kittle has been a bit of a bust of late but with my projected gamescript of the 49ers playing from behind, this should be an excellent breakthrough spot for Kittle. Starting to love the idea of using both Kelce and Kittle together for the combined red-zone upside and differentiation with two tight-ends.

Projected ownership: 25%

3. CJ Uzomah – at the price, I’ll be very interested in punting down to Uzomah or paring him on the other side of Travis Kelce for a double tight-end build. I want as much exposure to this high-scoring affair as I can get.

Projected ownership: 25%

4. Tyler Higbee – love the red-zone upside, but not a big fan of playing Higbee when Uzomah is cheaper and in an arguably better gamescript.

Projected ownership: 35%

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams, but prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at in my NFL DFS lineups:

Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs

3 years ago 0 comments

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