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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 6

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

The byes have arrived! Only 11 games on the Main Slate for Sunday…and one of our favorite teams to pick on is home on the couch, the Lions. Not only are we short on teams this week, but we are short on players! The injuries have already skyrocketed and we are not even halfway through the season. There are still a few bangers out there this week so don’t sweat it. One of them is a rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional Round, probably the best pound-for-pound playoff game in our generation…Bills/Chiefs. We definitely will want pieces of this game in our lineups (O/U 54), and our projection models will help us find the FFVPs. Remember we’re all in here to help, our team is here 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds. Let’s do this breakdown of Week 6!

Sunday Main Slate 10/16/22

Jets @ Packers (-7) (O/U 45.5)

Jets

New York will want to ride the wave of their one-two punch of running backs Breece Hall and Michael Carter in Green Bay. The duo combined for a total of 230 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns at home against Miami. As Zach Wilson is still getting familiar with his offense, look for New York to lean again on the run against a Packer run defense who have given up double-digit fantasy points to the position all season.

Packers

Aaron Rodgers must be pretty sour after flying over the pond to take an “L” from the Giants, especially after trying to be the hero at the end and failing on 4th down. He didn’t make the QB write-up this week but certainly can get there against this green Jets’ secondary on the road (6 PaTDs to elite QBs in 2 games). Rodgers plays his best football at home and with a chip on his shoulder, and he’s too cheap to pass on this week ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel).

Cash: A. Rodgers

GPP: B. Hall, M. Carter

Bucs @ Steelers (+8.5) (O/U 43.5)

Bucs

After that beating Buffalo put on the Steelers last week you have to want to own Brady in this slate. Pittsburgh’s 30th DVOA to quarterbacks does not get any better for the GOAT this week and it gets even better. The Steelers will be without 3 of their starting corners and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Start your Bucs this weekend in the steel city. One more thing, rookie quarterbacks have a hard time keeping the football. Tampa’s defense is still one of the most intense in football and could rattle Pickett’s cage on Sunday.

Steelers

Young Kenny Pickett hopefully will rest his arm before Sunday, he may have to throw 50 times. Najee Harris and the run game have been struggling this season due to its poor offensive line. Then there’s George Pickens…sign me up. He’s been Kenny’s go-to guy since he day one racking up 12 catches on 16 targets for 185 yards. Take a flyer on Georgie for a GPP, even more, ballsy to pair with his quarterback. If he can curb the interceptions, Pickett may be a fantasy viable with super low ownership.

Update: P . Freiermuth is out! TE special: Z. Gentry ($2,600 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel)

Cash: T. Brady, M. Evans, L. Fournette, Tampa DST

GPP: G. Pickens, K. Pickett

Ravens @ Giants (+5) (O/U 45)

Ravens

Lamar has been best known for using his legs at quarterback, and he will get plenty of work out of them against a New York team that gets trampled in the running game. Baltimore also has Dobbins back one game removed from his Achilles injury of last season and has room to eat here as well. Tight end Mark Andrews is an auto-start, and if wide-out Rashod Bateman sits this one out again, Devin Duvernay can be a nice value.

Giants

The Giants have been skating by through the season on their tough defense and Saquon Barkley, putting up a 4-1 record. Quarterback Daniel Jones also has been using his feet since the receiving core has been a graveyard due to injury. Keep an eye out for the rookie Wandale Robinson, if he can get on the field at his salary ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) against the Ravens’ 30th-ranked opposing defense, he can see a ton of reps and blow it up on Sunday.

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: D. Duvernay (if Bateman is out), J.K. Dobbins, W. Robinson

Update: Bateman is out

Niners @ Falcons (+5.5) (O/U 44)

Niners

San Fran would’ve liked to sink their teeth into another offense in Atlanta, except 6 of their starters on defense did not make the flight to Atlanta. If you’re looking to pay up for a defense this week, the Niners are a trap this weekend, stay away! There is a bright side to this bit of info, Jimmy G may have to actually turn it up a notch if the Niners do let the game start to slip away. We all know how bad the Falcons D is across the board by now, so a stack with Deebo, Aiyuk, or Kittle may be very sneaky…

Falcons

The Niner defense will be super short-handed getting off the plane in Atlanta (6 starters out), and the Falcons have been in every game to the end. Offensively they are a little short-handed themselves (Coradarrelle Patterson on IR, Kyle Pitts questionable and a non-factor). This leaves the fate in the hands of two rookies, Drake London to catch and Tyler Allgeier to run the ball for the Falcons. Leaning more toward London in his current situation, as the clear front-runner for target volume.

Cash: D. Samuel, D. London

GPP: J. Garoppolo, T. Allgeier, G. Kittle, B. Aiyuk

Bengals @ Saints (+2) (O/U 43.5)

Bengals

Burrow and Chase will be back home in the bayou this weekend, and believe me there will be fireworks. Shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore has already been ruled out, putting Bradley Roby on an island with Chase…uh oh. Tee Higgins is still bothered by an ankle and Hayden Hurst popped up with a groin injury late in the week, so pay attention to the reports. if they’re out we want a piece of Tyler Boyd. It will be a homecoming for Burrow and Chase in N’Orleans this Sunday, the writing is on the wall here folks.

Saints

On top of all the injuries on defense for the Saints, the offense is in pieces too. No Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry again, so it will be the Chris Olave show part two. If he can clear concussion protocols, Olave will be in line for a huge workload with quarterback Andy Dalton, who is filling in again for beat-up Jameis Winston. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to start the Cincinnati defense up in this spot too because of all the missing weaponry at receiver and quarterback. I know Kamara is there I know, but Cincinnati is 3rd in rushing DVOA so we really can’t focus on him this week.

Cash: J. Burrow, J. Chase, C. Olave (if he is cleared)

GPP: T. Boyd (if Higgins is out), Cincinnatti DST

Vikings @ Dolphins (+3) (O/U 45)

Vikings

Justin Jefferson is automatic here, you don’t need us to tell you that. And Cousins to get him the ball has an excellent mid-range salary that may interest some of us. If you could catch the Jets highlights run all over Miami last week, then you know where I’m headed. Dalvin Cook may steal the show and own the backfield since Alexander Mattison fell on the injury report. Facing a third-string quarterback in Miami, Cook may get extra carries to eat up the clock on a big lead in the second half.

Dolphins

No Tua again this week, 7th round rookie Skylar Thompson gets the start… but will he finish? He could be pulled after one or two series depending on his output. Coach McDaniel may have the option of putting in Teddy B if he is cleared for contact, to replace the rookie if he stinks it up. The water is just too muddy to pick up anybody in Miami this week because of the quarterback situation.

Cash: J. Jefferson, K. Cousins, D. Cook

GPP: None

Patriots @ Browns (-3) (O/U 42.5)

Patriots

The Pats will want to run the ball while their quarterback heals up from a high ankle sprain. Looks like Damien Harris may sit out another game and if he does it’s Rhamondre time again. In Harris’ absence last week the sophomore back averaged over 6 yards per carry (161 RuYDS). The Browns rank at the very bottom (32nd in DVOA) in run defense, a running back’s wet dream. Damien Harris sits, and Stevenson is a full go.

Browns

Now Cleveland can’t stop the run, but they can run right back at you with ease. With one of the best run-blocking O-lines in the league, opposing teams know he’s coming, but have not yet figured out how to stop him. The leading rusher in the NFL (593 RuYDS), Nick Chubb, exploded this year. Even while splitting the backfield with Kareem Hunt, Chubb is a bad man who at any point of the game can break off into the open field for 6.

Cash: R. Stevenson (if Harris is out), N. Chubb

GPP: None

Jaguars @ Colts (-2.5) (O/U 42)

Jaguars

All aboard… teams playing the Colts, start-up that D. The Jags have owned Indy for quite some time, and shut them out in their first meeting this season. We love Christian Kirk this season, but he came up short last week against Houston. Supposedly was a pretty nasty and wet day, even James Robinson took a step back last week. Kirk should be back on track this week and with no Shaq Leonard, Lawrence can get the ball to his number-one target.

Colts

Indy has become a one-dimensional team due to running back Jonathon Taylor’s time off the field. Their O-line is banged up, and little Matty Ice has been taking a pounding. If he can get the ball out quick enough, maybe he can hook up again with rookie Alec Pierce. In the win at Denver, he saw 9 targets, catching 8 for 81 yards. Thanks to all the pressure focused on stud teammate Michael Pittman Jr., Pierce will continue to feed off the weaker coverage.

Update: J. Taylor and N. Hines are out! Deon Jackson ($5,200DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) next man up (15FPTS in week 5)

Cash: C. Kirk, Jags DST

GPP: A. Pierce

Panthers @ Rams (-10.5) (O/U 40.5)

Panthers

Vince McMahon’s XFL superstar PJ Walker gets the start on the road, maybe he can provide some kind of spark for Carolina. The Matt Rhule era has finally come to an end, can the Panthers defeat the reigning Super Bowl champs on the road? We could care less, yeah McCaffrey should still be fine but let’s wait and see what happens in Carolina. Fade’em. Start that Rams’ D instead.

Rams

No need to mention the elephant in the room, Kupp is awesome, yes get him in. The real breaking news is Cam Akers is getting some personal time off this week, here we go…now we’re talkin’! Darrell Henderson’s time in the driver’s seat without Akers in the back seat, lock it up for a discount RB 2. But don’t forget about Stafford here either. His stock has fallen significantly from hitting a brick wall, mainly because of a few tough matchups. If he can keep from turning the ball over, which he should against Carolina, he’s could be a GPP hero.

Cash: D. Henderson, C. Kupp, Rams DST

GPP: M. Stafford

Cardinals @ Seahawks (+2.5) (O/U 51)

Cardinals

Kyler throwing into the horrific secondary of Seattle is sweet DFS music to my ears. The Cardinals need more wins under their belt, so Murray will lead the way. This will also be the last week before D Hop gets off suspension, so let’s enjoy Marquise Brown one more time before he gets fed less. But wait a sec, we have a free bee this week at running back, his name is Eno Benjamin. James Connor and backup Darrel Williams are both out, so Eno will own the backfield against one of the worst run defenses (30th in DVOA) in football.

Seahawks

Geno has made a name for himself again in the NFL, being the most accurate in the league (75% completion rating). He’s no slouch, and not afraid to sling it all over the field making D K Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both fantasy–friendly. On a sad note, the Seahawks lost running back Rashaad Penny for the year to a broken bone. Rookie top prospect Kenneth Walker III will take over as the lead back and will be a huge saving for your salary cap.

Cash: K. Murray, G. Smith, T. Lockett, D. Metcalf, E. Smith, M. Brown

GPP: K. Walker III

Bills @ Chiefs (+2.5) (O/U 54)

Bills

What’s better than a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional series? Nothing. Allen, we all know who he is by now, set him at QB and forget it. Pretty much every starter is in play for the Bills, even more so now the news broke that Kansas City will be down two starting corners, and will be replaced with rookies. I can hear the tables breaking in Buffalo now by the Mafia. Diggs, Davis, and McKenzie sound good ya think? Singletary is in play too, the Chiefs play way too much zone allowing a bunch of points to opposing backs.

Chiefs

Now if the Bills do come out guns blazing and take a lead, Mahomes and Kelce will not go down without a fight. Buffalo’s defense is a little better than last year, adding Von Miller and other pieces, so Mahomes may need to flee the pocket more often this time around. The Bills are still banged up in the secondary and safety, giving Mahomes and his receivers a little more breathing room. We never know really where Andy Reid is headed in each game, except Kelce who is the cornerstone of the offense. Picking one of these KC receivers is like a game of darts though, try one or two in a GPP.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce

GPP: M. Hardman, J. Smith-Schuster, M. Valdes-Scantling

Cash Core 4

J. Allen/E. Benjamin/C. Kupp/T. Kelce

GPP Core 4

J. Burrow/J. Chase/N. Chubb/M. Andrews

Stacks

J. Allen, S. Diggs, G. Davis/ P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, M. Hardman/G. Smith, T. Lockett, K. Walker K.Murray, M. Brown, E. Benjamin

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 6. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport. It’s been so much fun so far this season fellas, LFG!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Due to a week-long work trip, I’ll keep this week’s NFL DFS Cash Game article a bit more brief. We can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, TONS of value at the running back position.
Great QB pool on the main slate this week. There should be no need to get cute at that position!
Injury and weather concerns look relatively clean this week. Check back on Sunday morning for any updates!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,200 FD) – Obvious pay-up and highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate.
Lamar Jackson ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD) – Similar situation as Josh Allen, but Allen is the clear pay-up on the slate with the game total against the Chiefs sitting at 53+ points and ownership all flocking to Josh Allen.
Geno Smith ($5,700 DK / $7,400 FD) – Horrific pricing on DraftKings, but the clear value for your NFL DFS cash game lineups if you wish to pay-down.

Honorable Mention: Tom Brady

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD)
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – If Damien Harris is OUT, Stevenson is in an incredible spot in a matchup against the 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA). He’ll likely be 70% or higher in NFL DFS cash game ownership.
Kenneth Walker ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – No Rashaad Penny.
Darrell Henderson ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) – No Cam Akers, this is now Henderson’s backfield as a 10-point home-favorite.
Eno Benjamin ($4,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – No James Conner. No Darrel Williams. Take the freesquare.

Honorable Mention: Breece Hall, Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,700 DK / $9,400 FD)
Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DK / $8,900 FD)
Marquise Brown ($7,200 DK / $8,200 FD) – One of my favorite plays on this slate against the Seattle secondary, but likely best saved for GPP builds.
DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) / Tyler Lockett ($5,600 DK / $7,500 FD) – on DraftKings, Lockett is going to be 60% or higher in ownership. Take the savings there and use Metcalf on FanDuel for your NFL DFS cash game lineups.
Chris Godwin ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – The Steelers’ secondary is absolutely depleted this week.
Drake London ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Too cheap for a clear WR1 against a banged up San Francisco defense.
Devin Duvernay ($4,700 DK / $6,200 FD)
George Pickens ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD)
Rondale Moore ($4,200 DK / $5,600 FD) – Not a big Rondale Moore guy by any means, but the ownership will be there and the value is worth a roster spot in cash.

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL DFS Cash Game Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,300 FD)
Mark Andrews ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
Zach Ertz ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD)
Tyler Higbee ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Rams
Cincinatti Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Josh Allen
Rhamondre Stevenson
Eno Benjamin
Tyler Lockett
Chris Godwin

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 5

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

What a season so far, one month’s worth of NFL here and gone! Injuries are piling up left and right, and Week 5 ‘s slate has not one game with a 50-point total so far. Our projection models stay sharp and help us dial in on every matchup for the best players to draft in DFS. This slate is not Remember we’re all in here to help, our team is here 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds anytime guys, now let’s break down Week 5!

Sunday Main Slate 10/9/22

Steelers @ Bills (-14) (O/U 47)

Steelers

Kenny Pickett will get the full start against one of the top-ranked defenses in Buffalo, not the ideal landing spot for the rookie. He did provide a spark into the Steeler offense and displayed a bromance with fellow rookie George Pickens catching 6 balls for 102 yards against the Jets. But I’m fading Pittsburgh this weekend with their rookie quarterback on the road, the Bills’ D deserves the respect.

Bills

The Steelers will still be without T J Watt this weekend, so it’s safe to assume Josh Allen will have not as much pressure to work the Bills’ offense. I just can’t see using too many other Buffalo players in this game as they are 2 touchdown favorites. Let’s keep it simple here and use Allen with the Bills’ DST in this heavily lopsided matchup.

Cash: J. Allen, Bills DST

GPP: None

Falcons @ Bucs (-9) (O/U 48)

Falcons

The wheels are beginning to fall off for Falcons’ quarterback Marcus Mariota, especially after what we saw last week (7 for 19/139YDS/1 INT/1 FUM) so we won’t touch him. The big news in Atlanta is Patterson landing on IR forcing the rookie Tyler Allgeier to take over the backfield, who averaged 8 yards per carry and caught a 20-yard pass last week. Kyle Pitts Won’t make the trip to Tampa due to injury, so Drake London will be a target funnel for Mariota this Sunday.

Bucs

In a losing effort, Brady put up a monster (39-52/385 YD/3 TD) at home against Kansas City, and now that the divorce news broke with the supermodel wife, we may get a pissed-off Tom Brady chucking it all over the Falcons’ weak secondary. His arsenal is at full strength with Evans, Godwin, and Fournette making Brady a solid play. Tampa coming off that tough Sunday night loss will get their redemption in Week 5.

Cash: T. Brady, M. Evans, L. Fournette, C. Godwin

GPP: D. London, T. Allgeier

Dolphins @ Jets (+3) (O/U 44)

Dolphins

The nine-year vet Teddy “Two Gloves” will fill in for the concussed Tagovailoa and should be able to slide right in at quarterback. He’ll have two of the fastest receivers in the NFL at his disposal and a playbook from head coach Mike McDaniel on how to use them. The experience Bridgewater brings to the field may be an upgrade to the offense, against a cushy Jets defense that has allowed over 25 points per game. Give me a Dolphin stack this Sunday in GPP, but Hill and Waddle are safe for cash games.

Jets

If you’re looking for a safe play in New York, tight-end Tyler Conklin has been the most reliable of all Jet pass catchers. Flacco leaned heavily on him in the first three games and Zach Wilson fed him 3 receptions for 54 yards. He’s always hovering below $4K on DraftKings, take advantage of his low salary before the sites catch up with his production.

Cash: T. Hill, J. Waddle

GPP: T. Bridgewater, T. Conklin

Bears @ Vikings (-7) (O/U 44)

Bears

Run Chicago…run the ball. Even if you’re down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, just feed it to Khalil Herbert. We can’t trust this offense regardless of the matchup for the Bears. Herbert was a solid play last week but David Montgomery may be back this week and opposing defenses are beginning to sniff them out, blitzing and daring Fields to throw. Until we see some improvement in the offense let’s stay away from Chicago.

Vikings

Chicago really slows down the pace of their games and Vegas lets us know with a total of 44. So we should really not look to use much salary cap here in this game whatsoever, Justin Jefferson will eat here for sure but he may not reach value because of game flow. If you do want a piece of action from Minnesota, tight-end Irv Smith is affordable ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) and should see the least amount of coverage by the Bears’ defense. The Minnesota DST also interests me because Chicago struggles to put points on the board, but they’re not cheap. If you have the cap space great, if not, don’t go out of your way.

Cash: Minnesota DST, Justin Jefferson

GPP: I. Smith

Chargers @ Browns (+3) (O/U 47.5)

Chargers

It was only Week 2 when Joe Flacco lit up this suspect Cleveland secondary with the likes of Garret Wilson and Corey Davis for (307PaYD/4 TDs) Justin Herbert is fully capable of crushing here too and on Draftkings he’s a steal at ($7,100). Mike Williams pops off but can also end up on a milk carton sometimes, so keep an eye out for Keenan Allen’s status. If he is out another game, tight end Gerald Everett has been the beneficiary.

Browns

Cleveland will continue to ride their stud Nick Chubb and pound the rock into LA’s 30th DVOA run defense. If it hasn’t broken, don’t fix it. Nobody has yet to contain Cleveland’s run-heavy offense so why wouldn’t we see more of the Chubb/Hunt show this weekend? But Cleveland will still need to throw, and tight end Njoku owns the snap-share in Cleveland (92%). Amari Cooper has also solidified himself as the alpha dog at receiver, both are mid-range in salary and viable in your lineups.

Cash: J. Herbert, M. Williams

GPP: G. Everett, D. Njoku, N. Chubb, A. Cooper

Texans @ Jaguars (-7) (O/U 44.5)

Texans

The rookie bell cow Dameon Pierce has looked incredible these past two games rushing for 211 total yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jags are coming off a loss in Phila and were gashed by Miles Sanders’ (134-yard/2 touchdown) showing. Give me Pierce in this spot, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins here too. When two teams with bad defenses collide, the football moves on both sides of the field.

Jaguars

Jacksonville will need a little pick-me-up after that ass-whopping they took in Phila, Lawrence had a little deja-vu of 2021 Trevor turning the ball over. But the weather was wet and slippery, He’ll shake it off at home against Houston in a bounce-back game. Kirk his go-to guy will be in the mix and Robinson should also get plenty of work on the worst-ranked run defense in the league.

Cash: D. Pierce, B. Cooks, J. Robinson, C. Kirk

GPP: N. Collins, T. Lawrence

Lions @ Patriots (-3) (O/U 46.5)

Lions

Beware of this game guys. Jared Goff on the road, outdoors, facing a Bill Belichick defense throws up too many red flags. No word yet on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ankle and D’Andre Swift looks to be shelved until after Detroit’s bye week. Jamaal Williams and Hockenson looked awesome last week but that was Seattle at home and the Patriot defense can still show up here. Salaries are up on everybody too, so I’m going to play it safe, but if there was a Lion to use if Amon is out, pick up the Hock.

Patriots

Both Patriot running backs are in play fellas, the 31st in DVOA against the run Lions are in town and New England may be starting third-string quarterback Bailey Zappe. Harris and Stevenson should see plenty of volume in the backfield, but we can lean more toward Rhamondre for pass-catching opportunities.

Cash: D. Harris, R. Stevenson, T J Hockenson (A. St. Brown out)

GPP: None

Titans @ Commanders (+2.5) (O/U 42.5)

Titans

Derrick Henry has a heartbeat again in fantasy football. Over the last two games, he has averaged close to 5 yards per carry and a touchdown. Tennessee will continue to make him the focal point of the offense. But I’m more interested in Robert Woods for this game. Treylon Burks is out this weekend so St.-Juste will line up across from either Woods or Kyle Phillips who can easily burn him for chunks of yardage out of the slot.

Commanders

This Sunday Carson Wentz can break out of his slump when the second-worst secondary in the league comes into town. The Titans’ Kristian Fulton is A turnstile for receiver fantasy points so get McLaurin and Samuel in your lineups this weekend.

Cash: R. Woods, T. McLaurin

GPP: C. Wentz, C. Samuel, K. Phillips

Seahawks @ Saints (-5.5) (O/U 46)

Seahawks

Geno Smith and the Seahawks really came through for us last week in DFS, but we can’t go down that road again facing this tough New Orleans defense. D K Metcalf should see a ton of Lattimore and if the Seahawks will be playing catch-up, Lockett may benefit from the opposite side with some shaky Bradley Roby coverage.

Saints

So we have a couple of Interesting plays for the Saints. Running back Alvin Kamara says he’s going to play on Sunday, but can we trust him to produce at his high-mid-range salary? I think he’s usable and very sneaky for GPP, we have seen him score six touchdowns in one game! The safe guy here is Chris Olave. Michael Thomas just can’t stay healthy and Jarvis Landry still has an ankle issue. The rookie Olave has scored double-digit fantasy points in three of four contests this season.

Update: J. Winston and M. Thomas are Out

Cash: C. Olave

GPP: A. Kamara, T. Lockett

Niners @ Panthers (+6.5) (O/U 38.5)

Niners

After what we witnessed on Monday night against the defending champs, San Fran has the defense to beat in the NFC. Sack after sack, the safety Hufonga pick-six, I’m sold. I know the Rams’ O-line is a mess, but no question the Niners are a legitimate contender. I can see the highlights now of Baker getting smashed in the mouth. Very low total here fellas, so let’s start that D if you have the space, and a stack with Jeff Wilson Jr. would not be a bad idea too.

Panthers

See above, we can’t risk any spots in our cash game/GPP lineups on this Baker-Mayfield-led trainwreck of an offense, especially against the Niners. Even though McCaffrey has been solid over the course of the season, it’s best to stay away from all the pieces of Carolina, mainly because we can’t trust Baker or the coaching staff.

Cash: Niners DST, Jeff Wilson Jr.

GPP: None

Eagles @ Cardinals (+5.5) (O/U 49)

Eagles

Jalen Hurts needs no intro these days, his numbers speak for themselves. 27 fantasy points in three of four games. He’s in a position to smash again in Arizona, who have bled value to opposing quarterbacks (Week 1, 360 PaYd/5 PaTD – P. Mahomes) in previous QB1 matchups. The Cards continue to neglect opposing tight ends (31st in DVOA), give me one of the most trustworthy ones in football this week – Dallas Goedert

Cardinals

Philly’s defense has been devastating this season (4th in DVOA to quarterbacks), which makes Murray a no-brainer to fade. Marquise Brown, Greg Dortch, and Rondale Moore are all less than 100% healthy which makes tight end Zach Ertz the most dependable target for Murray this Sunday. The icing on the cake for Ertz is the revenge game he’s got going on against the team who let him go last season after helping them win Super Bowl LII.

Cash: J. Hurts, D. Goedert

GPP: Z. Ertz

Cowboys @ Rams (-4.5) (O/U 43)

Cowboys

LA’s Jalen Ramsey is no longer a threat from what we’ve seen this season. The Rams are dead last in DVOA to opposing receivers giving us the green light to drop Lamb in our lineups. But Dallas can also get to the quarterback already logging 15 sacks in 4 games. On DraftKings, they are slightly above the minimum salary ($2,500) and a huge cap saver against a My Pillow offensive line in LA.

Rams

Kupp or Higbee for the Rams… that’s the offense. LA’s O-line deficiencies have cost them their running game. LA has been a riches-to-rags story this year and until Shawn McVey can figure out what to do it’s best we stay clear from everyone else besides Kupp and Higbee.

Cash: C. Kupp, T. Higbee, Cowboys DST

GPP: C. Lamb

Cash Core 4

J. Allen/L. Fournette/C. Kupp/D. Goedert

GPP Core 4

T. Bridgewater/J. Robinson/J. Waddle/Z. Ertz

Stacks

T. Brady/C. Godwin/M. Evans J. Hurts/D. Hurts T. Bridgewater/T. Hill/J. Waddle J. Herbert/M. Williams

J. Wilson/Niners DST

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 5. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 5 NFL DFS GPP Lineups

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” Hopefully everyone is safe from the Hurricane and ready to decompress with some NFL football! The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a potential splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat (all of which are in the cash game article).

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD)

This is one of the few games with a higher total that I actually believe can go relatively back-and-forth. Both teams play at a high tempo and both teams have healthy, explosive playmakers. I really cannot say that for many of the games on this slate. I’m rolling out Hurts in all formats with the expectation this is a ceiling type of game in the dome for Jalen Hurts.

Stacking Options: AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Miles Sanders
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore, James Conner

Andy Dalton ($5,200 DK / $6,500 FD)

Similar to Jalen Hurts in the Eagles @ Philadelphia, the Seahawks @ Saints is one of the few games on this slate I truly believe have “game-stack ability”. Quite frankly, this is a week where I’m not too focused on correlation but more so pivots against the heavy chalk running backs. In terms of value, the AETY Model grades Andy Dalton as the #1 value quarterback on the slate and that makes a lot of sense as Seattle has been getting carved by all passing attacks, including a decimated Detroit Lions offense last week.

As long as Seattle can stay in this game (I have very little doubt that they will), this game offers the NFL DFS GPP players a sneaky shootout.

Stacking Options: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara
Run-Back Options: Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Rashaad Penny

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,200 DK / $8,900 FD)

Derrick Henry is quietly heating up and the ownership has yet to flock his way. The best thing about Derrick Henry right now is that he’s received a 23% target share in the passing attack over the past two weeks. With no Treylon Burks, this offense will (and always has) run through Derrick Henry. It’s not the best matchup in the world, but when Henry gets hot, he gets scorching hot. Outside of no more Taylor Lewan, this offensive line is healthy and ready to roll.

Nick Chubb ($8,000 DK / $9,400 FD)

The Chargers are currently giving up almost five and a half yards per carry. With a 3-5% owned Nick Chubb, what else do you need me to say? This game should be a bit more back-and-forth than people think and Vegas agrees, as we currently have a 47-point total. As always, our concerns with Nick Chubb on DraftKings is that he doesn’t catch passes, so if you’re rostering Chubb, you’re investing in the script that he goes for over 100 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns… which is certainly possible anytime Chubb steps on the field.

Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD)

A sub-5% owned Sanders against a dreadful Arizona defense. As everyone looks for the “safer” plays at this price-point (Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Williams, and Alvin Kamara), the NFL DFS GPP community is completely overlooking Miles Sanders. The AETY Model has Miles Sanders as the 7th best running back value on this slate and the ownership projections have Sanders as the 20th rostered running back. I’ll take that edge on the DFS field all day long and ensure myself a piece of every touchdown for the Eagles via Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders.

James Robinson ($6,300 DK / $8,000 FD)

In the same tier as Miles Sanders is James Robinson. Robinson is a significant value on DraftKings specifically but in play on FanDuel as well. I’m currently seeing ownership projections at 2-3% for the lead back of the Jaguars, at home, going up against the Texans run defense that grades 29th in DVOA. This is an absolute smash spot and extreme leverage off of a 20% owned stack of Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk. Let’s ride my alma mater’s best running back in James Robinson!

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, James Conner

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Honestly, DraftKings made a lot of questionable price-tags this week and I really do like the chalk wide receivers from the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown. My thought there is to use the obvious high-upside values and get different at the running back position above. Here are some other wide receivers I’m interested in rostering pending the lineup construction:

Stefon Diggs
Mike Evans
Tyreek Hill (stacked up with Teddy Bridgewater and Jaylen Waddle if Tyreek is healthy)
Deebo Samuel (crazy low ownership for the highest floor and arguably highest upside at the position and nice pivot off of Jeff Wilson chalk)
AJ Brown / DeVonta Smith (weekly pick on Marco Wilson matchup and easy stack with Hurts)
Marquise Brown (sub 5% due to the field being scared of the potential Darius Slay shadow)
Adam Thielen (1% owned, high-upside against the worst secondary in the NFL)
Terry McLaurin / Curtis Samuel (no Jahan Dotson and a matchup against the 2nd worst secondary in the NFL)
George Pickens
Khalil Shakir (significant sneaky value and excellent coverage matchup IF Isaiah McKenzie is OUT)

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

To be as transparent as possible, I’ll be using a TON of O.J. Howard ($2,600 DK / $4,500 FD) due to the savings offered and coverage thoughts from the Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown. I understand if that is not in your appetite but I’m really trying to pay up at Quarterback/Wide Receiver/Defense (yes, Defense) and get different at the running back position. Howard is scary as hell to roster at a high clip, but he opens up a lot for my builds when there really isn’t any tight-end on the slate that I worry will score 20+ points.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, David Njoku, Gerald Everett

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 5 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

A little bit of a mixed bag last week, but still plenty of green screens in the Discord for cash. I personally lost most of my cash games due to the Javonte Williams injury. I stand by the play in Javonte and my model’s expected output for him, but it certainly may have been “too cute” in cash, as I could have just ate the Jamaal Williams chalk and went double Lion (Hockenson). Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but there was just no way I’d go against my roots and play a double Lion stack in cash (especially when their whole team was injured). Nonetheless, we’re on to Week 5 NFL DFS cash games.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 5, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, plenty of value at the running back position
Very thin QB pool on the main slate yet again in Week 5. Don’t miss on QB!
Injury and weather concerns look clean this week. We should be good to go!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Per the theme of my 2022 NFL DFS cash game lineups, I’ll be focused on the top tier Quarterbacks yet again. I will not go below the $6K range on DK at Quarterback this week and will be locked in on one of the following:

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)

You know what you’re getting with Josh Allen on a weekly basis. The floor is arguably higher than anyone on the slate every single week. My only concern this week is the legit blowout potential this game has to offer as the Bills are a two-touchdown favorite at home against rookie, Kenny Pickett. We likely will not see a full on Josh Allen fantasy output like we’re used to, but the floor is high enough to lock in 2.5x value at a minimum.

Jalen Hurts ($8,100 DK / $8,600 FD)

What do we even need to say about Jalen Hurts? He’s averaging over 27 NFL DFS points per game and is locked in this week with a cake matchup against a struggling Arizona defense (28th in pass defense DVOA). I do have a hard time seeing how Arizona keeps it close, but the pace in this game should be an up-tempo, back-and-forth gamescript that keeps Jalen Hurts’ foot on the gas for all four quarters.

Tom Brady ($6,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

Insanely cheap on DraftKings and likely to be over 40% owned in NFL DFS cash games on that site. On FanDuel, Brady is still certainly in play. Most sportsbook are projecting Brady for over 2 passing touchdowns and the AETY Model Agrees. Atlanta’s defense as a whole has been a problem all season long and this matchup at home for Brady just screams the narrative of a Brady blowup game. Take the value on Brady if you’re not into paying up for the dual-threat Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts’s of the world.

NFL DFS Running Backs

Leonard Fournette ($6,900 DK / $7,800 FD)

Fournette has certainly been struggling on the ground over the past two weeks but the RB1 role is still solely his to lose as he’s logged 78% of the Tampa Bay rushing attempts since Week 2. Like Brady, this is a fantastic matchup for Fournette against the Falcons’ 26th ranked run defense (DVOA). The Bucs currently have a team total over 28 points and getting the lead running back with significant red-zone equity is something I’ll be locking in.

Jamaal Williams ($6,500 DK / $8,300 FD)

I’ll likely not get up to Jamaal Williams this week (especially on FanDuel at that price), but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings against the Patriots 31st ranked run defense in terms of DVOA. I do have concerns that Jamaal Williams is extremely touchdown dependent as he only logged 50% of the snaps last week, but the matchup and red-zone usage is enough to warrant going back to him in NFL DFS cash games.

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

Damn-near the freesquare cash game play at the running back position this week. The Panthers defense has been solid this year (especially against the run) but at this price, I’ll take the value for a 3-down running back who’s averaging over 17 touches per game since Eli Mitchell went on the IR.

Damien Harris ($5,600 DK / $7,200 FD) AND/OR Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,500 DK / $6,000 FD)

Yes, I’m okay if you happen to be bold enough to start both of the Patriots’ running backs this week. The Patriots will have Bailey Zappe under center again this week, so you know their game plan will be to lean on that #1 rushing offense (DVOA) against Detroit’s dead last rushing defense (32nd in DVOA). Over the past two weeks, Harris has averaged 16 touches per game, while Stevenson has average 17 touches per game. Despite the timeshare, these guys are getting modern day RB1 volume at ridiculously low price-tags for your NFL DFS lineups.

Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Dameon Pierce, James Robinson, Rashaad Penny, Tyler Allgeier (only if you really need the savings)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,600 DK / $9,500 FD) / Justin Jefferson ($8,900 DK / $8,800 FD)

Pick your poison at the top of the wide receiver board if you can afford one of them.

Christian Kirk ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

Christian Kirk is quietly 10th in the NFL in target share. Everyone else on that list (outside of Diontae Johnson) is priced well above $7K on DraftKings. I’ll take the clear discount as this is a beautiful matchup for Kirk and this Jags’ offense as a whole, going up against the Texans’ defense that grades 27th in total defense DVOA. Kirk will see a lot of soft coverage from Desmond King and the rest of this Houston defense as they mainly run Cover-2 and Cover-3 zones. Advantage, Christian Kirk.

Chris Godwin ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)

Assuming Godwin’s health is good to go, this is clear mis-price as Godwin got the benefit of the late game on Sunday in Week 4 (after the pricing algorithms run). As discussed, this is prime blow-up spot for Brady and this Bucs’ offense as a whole. Throughout his career, Godwin has averaged the following against the Falcons:

7.1 targets per game
5.4 receptions per game
85 receiving yards per game
1 receiving touchdown per game

Keep in mind, most of those games were without Tom Brady under center. Godwin should absolutely smash his price-tag in Week 5 against the Falcons. If you have to go double-Buccaneer in cash this week, I’m okay with it as they have such a high team-total.

Chris Olave ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD)

Another clear pricing error as Olave will again lead the Saints’ wideouts in targets, air-yards, and red-zone targets at-home against the Seahawks 32nd ranked pass defense. All of these Seattle corners are stepping stones to another strong NFL DFS outing for the rookie standout.

Tyler Lockett ($5,600 DK / $6,800 FD)

On the other side of Olave, I’m extremely interested in getting the highest targeted wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks in Tyler Lockett. I’d love to play DK Metcalf, but I’ll take the savings on Lockett and avoid the likely Marshon Lattimore shadow that Metcalf will see. Lockett should have a field day against Bradley Roby and the struggling second year corner, Paulson Adebo.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans, Robert Woods, Rondale Moore

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

With Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews off the slate, I will not be prioritizing paying up at the tight-end position and based off of early ownership projections, the field won’t be paying up either. Here are some quick notes for my tight-end player pool:

Zach Ertz – nothing sexy, but a consistent target share which is more than we can say about most tight-ends on this NFL DFS slate. Philadelphia is a tough matchup for opposing tight-ends but the AETY Model projects Philadelphia to score at will, which should lead to a busy day in the middle for Zach Ertz.
Dallas Goedert – one of the most consistent and high-upside tight-ends on the slate going up against the 29th ranked defense at covering tight-ends (DVOA).
Tyler Higbee – Higbee is going to be the chalk tight-end on the slate. If you’re just trying to roll with the ownership, Higbee is your guy, but I certainly have my concerns. Higbee has been crushing against teams that blitz a lot and teams that play a lot of Cover-3 zone defense. The Cowboys will play a lot of man coverage and a lot of Cover-2 (advantage Cooper Kupp and potentially even Allen Robinson). I’m not sold this is a Higbee week in any way, shape, or form.
OJ Howard – If you need salary savings, look no further than OJ Howard. On paper, it’s gross but Brevin Jordan is likely OUT again, Jordan Akins has been going back and forth to the practice squad, and Pharaoh Brown is now on the Cleveland Browns. Howard logged 75% of the snaps last week for Houston and already has shown some of his red-zone upside this season.

He’s also 11th in the NFL for tight-end air yards (ahead of Tyler Higbee, David Njkoku, Irv Smith, etc.). The Jaguars defense will mainly run a Cover-3 zone and mix in a lot of blitz which should encourage Davis Mills to use those shorter ADOT route runners, like OJ Howard. At $2,600 on DraftKings, I’m in for the punt-play.

Honorable Mention: David Njoku

Defense / Special Teams

Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup (there are a lot in play this week pending your lineup construction):

Buffalo Bills
Tampa Bay Bucs
San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots to post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Jalen Hurts
Leonard Fournette
Christian Kirk
Chris Olave
OJ Howard

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 5 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Listen, I feel guilty for not recommending TJ Hockenson last week. Of course we all saw 93 points coming in that game, and I should have been all over it! I kid, of course, and congrats to all who had TJ. He truly broke the slate at TE. Now that we are in Week 5, our goal is to find the TJ this week (maybe it IS TJ). Let’s get right to it.

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 4 on DraftKings and FanDuel! Crazy to think that after this week, we are already almost 25% of the way through the NFL season!

Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Maybe I’m just an old curmudgeon, but typing the word “Commanders” for an NFL team makes me feel like I’m playing an unlicensed version of Madden. Nevertheless, Thomas is a sneaky good play this week. Jahan Dotson seems very unlikely to play on Sunday, and Thomas should be one of the main beneficiaries.

After running routes on only about 76% of his snaps Weeks 1-2, Thomas ran a route on over 94% each of the last two weeks. He was targeted six times against Dallas on Sunday, but pulled in just five balls for 19 yards. It’s easy to blame Carson Wentz, who is undoubtedly the man staring back at you when you Google “QBs who are terrible in real life but fantasy relevant”.

Washington faces the Titans this week, and only the Seahawks (thanks to Hockenson) are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing TE.

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

I’m fairly certain that Ertz has been in this article every week so far this season. I can’t imagine that changing, regardless of matchup, until DeAndre Hopkins returns. Check out where our guy Zach ranks among TE since Week 2.

Snap counts: 1st, 1st, 7th.

Targets: T1st, T2nd, T7th.

The opportunities are there, and the only reason he saw a SLIGHT dip last week was the fact that the Cardinals weren’t playing from behind for once. I’ll be betting that they’ll be playing from behind again this week against the 4-0 Eagles.

If you’re into this sort of thing, we can call this one a revenge game for Ertz. This will be his first time facing his former team. The matchup isn’t great of course, but the volume should be elite once again.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

Last week we discussed two TE who were facing each other, and this week our featured matchup is Goedert vs Ertz. Dallas has 16 targets over his last three games, and draws a juicy matchup against the Cardinals. They rank 30th in the NFL against TE, allowing over 20 fantasy points per game.

This game has a total hovering around 50 points, and Goedert has continued to deliver. He has 11+ DraftKings points in each of his last three games.

TJ Hockenson, Lions ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

FanDuel and DraftKings were quick to make Hockenson the most expensive TE on the main slate, but this is again a slate missing Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. I think he’s a decent fade in tournaments, as his game last week should see his ownership skyrocket.

However, this is actually a pretty good spot for Hock. The Patriots have allowed the most touchdowns in the NFL to opposing TE (5), and the Lions lead the NFL with 35 PPG. To me, playing or not playing Hock in tournaments comes down to the status of Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeAndre Swift. If both are out, you’ll need shares of him. If just Sun God sits, he’s viable as well.

Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Here’s an idea. Let’s ignore last week’s debacle (one catch for 25 yards on four targets) and take advantage of some recency bias. The perfect time to target a player at low ownership is immediately after they disappoint. The DFS world is less than pleased with Pitts, and for good reason. But hear me out.

Cordarrelle Patterson has been placed on the IR, and Atlanta doesn’t truly have much experience in the backfield. The offense will be relying on their young duo of Pitts and Drake London against the Bucs.

Pitts only played 62% of the snaps last week, but had his highest rate of routes run on the season (92.3%). The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs in a game with a total around 49. This is the perfect game script for Pitts and company to post some fantasy goodness. Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd-most receptions to opposing TE this season. One time, Kyle. Let’s run it back.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 5, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Week 5 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Logan Thomas, Commanders ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

Washington faces the Titans this week, and only the Seahawks (thanks to Hockenson) are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing TE.

Zach Ertz, Cardinals ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

Snap counts: 1st, 1st, 7th.

Targets: T1st, T2nd, T7th.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)

This game has a total hovering around 50 points, and Goedert has continued to deliver. He has 11+ DraftKings points in each of his last three games.

TJ Hockenson, Lions ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 5, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

What a start to the NFL DFS Cash Game Season, 3-0! It’s always great to see all of the green-screens on Twitter and Discord AGAIN last week. Everyone seemed to have smashed their cash games and we’re here to do it again in Week 4! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, plenty of value at the running back position
Very thin QB pool on the main slate. Don’t miss on QB!
Some injury concerns we will keep an eye on. Check back Sunday!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Same situation as last week the QB position is relatively easy this week for your NFL DFS cash games. We’re going to want a QB that has dual-threat upside or someone that can throw for 300+ yards and 2 touchdowns. There are very few QBs on this slate who fit that narrative.

Josh Allen ($8,400 DK / $8,900 FD)

Do not overthink this one. Josh Allen is the clear-cut QB1 on this slate. The game total is currently sitting at 51 points (AETY likes the OVER) and the matchup against Baltimore’s secondary has AETY projecting the Allen and the Bills to surpass 300 yards passing. This game is going to go back and forth and you’re going to want a piece or two in your NFL DFS cash game lineup.

Lamar Jackson ($8,300 DK / $8,800 FD)

He’s 100% superstar, half quarterback, half running back… he’s Lamar Jackson. If I’m not going with Josh Allen, I’ll be rostering Lamar Jackson. Simple as that. I need exposure to this game and I want the two most sure things at the QB position to start my cash game lineup.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Javonte Williams ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

The highest I’m likely to go this week at the running back position in NFL DFS cash games is Javonte Williams. Williams is the clear lead-back in this offense in both terms of rushing attempts, targets, and routes ran. The only advantage Melvin Gordon currently has is red-zone carries and I’m quite confident those will start to go in favor of Javonte Williams in the very near future.

We’re getting one of the best pure running backs in football at a significant discount in a matchup against a banged up Raiders’ defense who are third in the league for rushing touchdowns allowed and 29th in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs. Javonte Williams will eat.

Jamaal Williams ($6,100 DK / $7,400 FD)

Take the freesquare and ride the ownership wave of Jamaal Williams in your cash lineups now that Swift is out. I’m fine with a GPP fade, but in cash, you’re likely playing Jamaal Williams.

Khalil Herbert ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD)

A bit pricey on FanDuel, but assuming David Montgomery is OUT, it will be wheels up for a massive Khalil Herbert workload against the 28th ranked run defense (DVOA) in the New York Giants.

Josh Jacobs ($5,500 DK / $6,500 FD)

Apparently, Josh Jacobs is going to be just as highly owned as Jamaal Williams this weekend so I’m 100% okay if you want to ride the chalk and use Josh Jacobs, but I really respect this Denver defense as a whole. At these prices, it’s hard to not lock in Jacobs in your NFL DFS cash game lineup. I’ll certainly look elsewhere in NFL DFS GPP builds.

Rashaad Penny ($4,900 DK / $6,700 FD)

I was planning on keeping Penny to the GPP article, but with the way I’m building my cash game lineup (heavy BAL/BUF), I really need any savings that I can find. Despite Kenneth Walker’s activation, Penny has 20 carries to Walker’s 4. This RB1 job is Rashaad Penny’s until further notice and at this price, I’m all about it.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Najee Harris, James Conner, Dameon Pierce

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DK / $8,700 FD)

If you’re playing Josh Allen, you’re already getting exposure to Stefon Diggs in your cash game lineups. If you’re going with Lamar Jackson, Stefon Diggs on the other side of that game is a must-play in cash. I’ve spoken enough about this game to go into further detail.

Drake London ($6,100 DK / $6,300 FD)

Drake London is becoming an immediate impact, rookie wide receiver in the NFL as he paces the Falcons’ pass catchers with a damn-near 33% target share. The Browns secondary is okay (21st in pass defense DVOA) but they’re going to play a lot of zone defense. Against zone coverage, Drake London has out targeted all Falcon wide receivers by over three times the amount of the next guy (Olamide Zaccheaus). London is a pure WR1 priced like an upper-tier WR2.

Diontae Johnson ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD)

Damn-near the exact same situation as London (opportunity and cost-wise) just with a significant worse quarterback. Against the Jets and their 32nd ranked pass defense (DVOA), I like the odds of Diontae Johnson really coming alive here for fantasy players who were expecting much more production out of the Steelers star wide receiver. I do have a bit of pace concerns (41.5 point total), but if these two dumpster fire offenses can go back and forth against arguably worse defenses, Diontae Johnson will be a perfect fit to our NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Brandin Cooks ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD)

Getting the theme of the wide receiver position this week? Underpriced WR1s. The AETY Model is expecting the Chargers to come out firing and force HOU into a pass-heavy offense and that simply bodes extremely well for Brandin Cooks. As long as J.C. Jackson is still banged up (better if he’s out… UPDATE: JC is IN), Brandin Cooks should walk backwards into the 2.5x floor we’re looking for in cash game lineups.

DJ Moore ($5,300 DK / $6,100 FD)

The Panthers’ offense has been dreadful to start the year, but the Arizona Cardinals pass defense (29th in DVOA) is something we’ve been picking on every single week in 2022. We will not stop doing that now as DJ Moore will see a lot of Marco Wilson in man-coverage on Sunday afternoon. That is a recipe for fantasy and real-life success. DJ Moore has twice as many targets than any other player on the Panthers when facing man-coverage. It will likely be DJ Moore or Josh Palmer for my WR2 spot in cash.

Viable “Punt-Play” Salary Savers:

Again, with my love for the upper-tier studs this week, I’ll likely need some salary relief at the wide receiver position. Here’s who fits that mold and is AETY Model approved…

Elijah Moore ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD)
Richie James ($4,000 DK / $5,500 FD)
George Pickens ($3,800 DK / $5,100 FD)

Honorable Mention: CeeDee Lamb (weekly St. Juste matchup), AJ Brown, Josh Palmer

Update: Ownership trending heavily towards CeeDee Lamb. I’m likely going to lock him in to play the chalk game with a clear WR1 with double-digit targets in every game this season, not to mention the weekly St. Juste spot.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

I’ll be locking in Mark Andrews in my cash game lineup, no way around it. He’s the clear TE1 on this slate and the AETY Model has him outscoring the next tight-end by over 5 points. As the field likely pays down at tight-end, I’ll be playing Mark Andrews and find my salary relief elsewhere. If you’re playing Lamar Jackson (we won’t stack in cash games), here is who I would consider:

Kyle Pitts ($5,000 DK / $6,100 FD)
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)
Zach Ertz ($4,700 DK / $5,500 FD)
TJ Hockenson ($4,100 DK / $5,400 FD)

*UPDATE: With the new weather concerns in BUF/BAL, I’m fine if you need to pay down at tight-end but lets stick to one of the above.

Defense / Special Teams

Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup:

Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots to post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Josh Allen
Khalil Herbert
Javonte Williams
CeeDee Lamb
Richie James Jr. (gross)

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 4

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Another profitable week of NFL DFS is in the books. The entire field had a piece of that Bills/Dolphins game which turned out to be a big day for each team’s running backs (Our guy Stix mentioned Devin Singletary for GPP on our Discord on Saturday). Not many high scores, but we should’ve still doubled up in our cash games thanks to our projection models. Thanks to the site my own personal lineups would’ve all tanked if it weren’t for Mack Hollins‘ insane game (8 REC/158 YDS/1 TD). Remember we’re all in here to help, our team is here 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds anytime guys, now let’s break down Week 4!

Sunday Main Slate 10/2/22

Jaguars @ Eagles (-6.5) (O/U 46.5)

Jaguars

Have the Jags become a legit team in the NFL again? Head coach Doug Pederson looks like he may have turned this franchise around after the 38-10 shellacking his team put on the Chargers. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been efficient, throwing 6 touchdowns to only 1 interception. He’s useable in a GPP, but his main man Christian Kirk may see shadow coverage from Darius Slay. Pairing Lawrence with Zay Jones may be the way to go in this game, fresh off his 10 REC/85 YRD/1 TD performance.

Eagles

Philly is again in the driver’s seat this weekend. Jalen Hurts embarrassed his former mentor Carson Wentz last week, and now he gets a piece of his old coach Doug Pederson, who benched him in the final game of the 2020 season for Nate Sudfeld. Hard to pass up on a few Eagles for DFS again in Week 4…Should be another aerial attack on Jacksonville. Hurts, Brown, Smith, and Goedert are all reliable plays this Sunday.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown, D. Smith, D. Goedert

GPP: T. Lawrence, Z. Jones

Bills @ Ravens (+3) (O/U 51.5)

Bills

Now we’re talking. Bang bang shoot’em up in Baltimore. After suffering that painful loss to Miami last week, we can foresee Josh Allen coming out guns blazing in this one. Whatever happened to this shutdown Raven secondary? They’ve been toasted since last season even with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters back in the mix allowing over 1,100 air yards in 3 games. So Diggs is a lock to pair, but still, be cautious with Gabe Davis with his ankle injury. Dawson Knox has been quiet and his salary has whittled away, this might be the right time to sneak him into your DFS lineup.

Ravens

Raven contests have been money in the bank for DFS so far this season. Lamar vs. Allen, the Champ vs. the Number One Contender. We’ll see who’s playing defense for Buffalo by Sunday morning, but it shouldn’t matter to Jackson by the way he’s been playing. He leads the league in touchdown passes (10) with another 2 on foot. Top tight end Mark Andrews has also been unstoppably catching the football (22 REC/245 YDS/3 TD) and will continue to dominate whatever the defense throws at him.

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: D. Knox

Update: Watch the weather this weekend, could get soggy in Baltimore

Commanders @ Cowboys (-3) (O/U 41.5)

Commanders

Carson Wentz couldn’t stay off his back last week as the Eagles demonstrated why they have the number one ranked defense. He’ll be having a little case of deja vu on Sunday when they visit the Cowboys who can also get to the quarterback quickly. Dallas has a total of 13 sacks and has only allowed 2 passing touchdowns on the year. I’m taking a hard pass on the Commanders this week.

Cowboys

I’m tempted to put Cooper Rush in a GPP lineup, he’s been very safe as a game manager and with the low salary he could give us a little value. Lamb finally showed up last week (8 REC/87 YDS/1 TD) and we can only imagine what he can do to the Fuller/St. Juste coverage of Washington. The safe play is the Dallas DST though, the Cowboys may not have to rely too much on their offense if they end up shutting down the Commanders.

Cash: Dallas DST

GPP: C. Rush, C. Lamb

Seahawks @ Lions (-4) (O/U 48)

Seahawks

Seattle let Geno cook against Atlanta in Week 3, and the meal came out hot and spicy. He has an opportunity to duplicate his (325 PAYDS/2 TD) performance in Detroit, who have been very fantasy-friendly to quarterbacks this year. DK Metcalf looked spectacular too last week, but he may see a ton of Jeff Okudah, the dude who kept Minnesota’s J.J. quiet. If you’re looking to pair Geno, use Lockett this week. He had a nice 11-target (9 REC/76 YRD) game and should see the door mat corner in Detroit of Amani Oruwariye. Running back Rashaad Penny tore up Detroit at the end of last season for (170 YDS/2 TD) and he is a mere ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel), keep him in mind for a tournament play too.

Lions

Detroit will be without 2 of its biggest weapons in D’Andre Swift and Amon Ra–St. Brown this Sunday due to injury. Goff will still be there to lead the team and he’ll look to lean on his safety valve, tight end T J Hockenson. Running back Jamaal Williams will pick up the slack for Swift, but Craig Reynolds may also see some snaps.

Cash: J. Goff, T. Hockenson, Jam. Williams

GPP: G. Smith, T. Lockett, R. Penny

Jets @ Steelers (-3.5) (O/U 42)

Jets

If you’re feeling lucky to go with gang green this weekend, Zach Wilson will finally take over for Flacco. He’s a steal at ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,500 Fanduel) and his receiver core is a bargain as well except we can’t be too sure who will get targetted yet. Tight end Tyler Conklin is ranked number 2 in the league but for some reason, his salary is still very inexpensive ($3,600 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel). Zach will need to throw it and Conklin offers little risk and high reward for quick receptions up the middle.

Steelers

Are we all in on Mitch? In a tournament for sure, I can’t bet half my bankroll on the biscuit. The Jets’ secondary are a disaster (22nd in DVOA for receivers/20th for QBs), and might as well give me some George Pickens of the core, cheapest with the most upside. Diontae Johnson would be the safer play in my opinion, but when facing the Jets anyone could be uncontroversial.

Cash: D. Johnson

GPP: Z. Wilson, T. Conklin, M. Trubisky, G. Pickens, N. Harris

Bears @ Giants (-3) (O/U 39.5)

Bears

Rain is in the forecast for this weekend, I can’t even imagine Fields getting double-digit pass attempts in this game. The Bears have nothing to lose yet they hold this kid back from airing it out. So It’ll be another big rushing day for Khalil Herbert against a Giants run defense that can’t stop anyone with the ball (25th in DVOA). Very safe for cash, and that’s about it…Chicago has been a snooze fest for three weeks.

Giants

New York is running thin at receiver after losing Sterling Shepard for the year to an ACL, Richie James is the last man standing at Met Life. Chicago will be ready for Saquon, Golladay is on the block, and Toney and Robinson are ruled out, so it will be James running routes all day. If New York wins, it will be with their defense, which has kept the scores down in all three games this year. Fields will pass at some point, and the Giants will look to exploit him.

Cash: K. Herbert, NY DST

GPP: R. James

Chargers @ Texans (+5.5) (O/U 44)

Chargers

Coming off a devastating loss at home to Jacksonville, Justin Herbert will be out for blood. Even though it appears Keenan Allen could miss his second straight game, Austin Ekeler has been quiet and could break out in Houston, where we just saw Chicago’s Khalil Herbert go bananas. Herbert does a pretty good job of spreading the ball, so be careful with Charger receivers here. Salaries are up across the board, and if they get a big lead, the passing game could taper off.

Texans

On the other side of that coin, Houston will be playing catch-up all game. No Joey Bosa, a banged-up Derwin James, and possibly no J C Jackson, and boom… Brandin Cooks is back on SportsCenter. A WR1 is priced down to a WR2 this weekend, come and get some.

Cash: B. Cooks

GPP: A. Ekeler

Browns @ Falcons (+1.5) (O/U 49)

Browns

Cleveland has a nice match-up on paper but I just can’t buy too much into Brissett. Amari Cooper on the other hand has proven to be the 1, but how much will they need to throw it here against Atlanta? Nick Chubb has been on an absolute rampage in this run-first offense so why bother exposing a weakness in passing? Chubb’s approaching $8k in salary this week on DraftKings, but could have low ownership because of the Jamaal Williams hype. Sneaky in GPP.

Falcons

The Browns defensive line might be without two key pieces as Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett are both questionable. This would buy more time for Mariota to find rookie Drake London in the open field, who has taken over as Atlanta’s number one option. Mariota could even peel off some chunks of rushing yardage himself in this situation, but either way, London should be good to go because of game flow.

Cash: D. London

GPP: N. Chubb, M. Mariota

Titans @ Colts (-3) (O/U 42.5)

Titans

The Titans finally got in the win column thanks to a strong performance by Derrick Henry. But the Colts rank third in the league in run defense, so they may need Tannehill to step up his game. The rookie Treylon Burks and veteran Robert Woods have been the only guys trusted in the passing game, but Shaq Leonard may finally be suiting up this Sunday, so I’m just staying away entirely on the Titans.

Colts

Tennessee may have the worst secondary in football and could spell another monster game from Michael Pittman Jr. They also rank 29th in rushing yards allowed, which could wake the sleeping giant of Jonathon Taylor. Both are still up there in salary, and it is a divisional game which would lead to both teams being cautious with the ball and playing solid defense, so we can go there, the Colts D. is in a sweet spot.

Cash: Colts DST

GPP: M. Pittman Jr.

Cardinals @ Panthers (-1.5) (O/U 43)

Cardinals

The Cards got bit by the injury bug this week, as almost the entire offense popped up with a questionable tag, even Marquise Brown. Hopefully, it’s not too serious for him, since he saw 17 targets last week, catching 14 for 140 yards, and can be in line for the same volume in Carolina. Tight end Zach Ertz is pretty much the only healthy weapon for Kyler this week and can also see a huge uptick in usage.

Panthers

Arizona has been a cheat code for drafting at the wide receiver position so far this season. Let’s just keep filling up our buckets from that well and grab Carolina’s WR1 DJ Moore. He’s been quarterback-proof throughout his career, so buy in this week while Moore is dirt cheap ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) with a ton of upside.

Cash: M. Brown, Z. Ertz, DJ Moore

GPP:

Patriots @ Packers (-9.5) (O/U 40.5)

Patriots

Veteran backup Brian Hoyer will get the start for the banged-up Mac Jones. We can’t trust any receiver let alone Hoyer this weekend, especially against their tough defense. If anybody to take a shot on again is Rhamondre, he got you over 20 Fantasy points last week. Slowly he is easing his way into the James White role in New England, as a PPR machine.

Packers

A low-scoring, backup QB on the other side, just reeks of a very slow-paced game. Rodgers and the offense may take it easy this weekend and show very little urgency to New England, so let’s think about what pieces we want…Tonyan? He’s a very trusted weapon of Rodgers and has been flying under the radar for a while, a great punt at tight end for a GPP.

Cash: Packers DST

GPP: R. Stevenson, R. Tonyan

Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5) (O/U 45.5)

Broncos

Denver is still struggling to figure out their new identity, and it may take a while if you’ve been watching the play calling. Until Russell Wilson can get comfortable, he’ll lean on his running back Javonte Williams, as he should. So far he’s cooled off since his (11 REC/65 YRD) game in the opener, but that could change this week as Melvin Gordon is beginning to be eased out of his role.

Raiders

“A return of the Mack”? We better run it back with this dude. The second week in a row without Hunter Renfrow so Mack Hollins will see a larger role in the offense again. He’s looking to build off his (8 REC/158 YDS/ 1 TD) even though it’s a tougher matchup, Adams and Waller will demand priority defensive coverage over him. A significant bump up in salary too but is still reasonably priced considering his ceiling.

Cash: Jav. Williams

GPP: M. Hollins

Cash Core 4

J. Allen, S. Diggs, Jam Williams, M. Andrews

GPP Core 4

M. Trubisky, N. Chubb, M. Hollins, R. Tonyan

Stacks

J. Allen/Diggs; L. Jackson/M. Andrews; J. Goff/TJ Hockenson; M. Trubisky, D. Johnson

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 3

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

What a way to follow up on the 2022 – 23 season…Week 2 was full of action! Loaded with upsets and monster performances, if you stacked that Miami/Baltimore game you are sitting on a lot of green! Again our models came through in the clutch for cash games, so stay right here we have Week 3 around the corner and you don’t want to miss out. Our team of experts is here to help 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds, who to start, or fade. Thanks again everybody, it’s been such an awesome season so far, and now back to the grind!

Sunday Main Slate 9/25/22

Chiefs @ Colts (+5.5) (O/U 50.5)

Chiefs

Kansas City is one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league and will need to utilize it in Indianapolis since Shaq Leonard and Deforest Buckner have held opponents to a mere 2.7 yards per carry. So Mahomes and Kelce will need to move the chains in the air, totally safe for cash. Consider also Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) for a sneaky value in this match-up, who’s seen just over 56% of snaps with 10 targets.

Update: Shaq Leonard (Colts) is out, CEH is good to go!

Colts

Matt Ryan and company are still looking for their first win of the season, but it could be an uphill battle with KC. They’ll need their bell cow Jonathon Taylor to get off to a good start in order to play keep away from Pat Mahomes. His price is way too steep for a potential Chiefs blow out so no thanks. We’ll see if Indy can get Michael Pittman healthy enough for Sunday, they’ll need all hands on deck. Andy Reid will have extra coverage on him if he does play. The Colts are just way too thin at weapons to compete with these AFC West Juggernauts, but if you really need a Colt this week, Ryan will have great value ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel).

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, CEH

GPP: M. Ryan, M. Hardman

Bills @ Dolphins (+6) (O/U 52.5)

Bills

Buffalo steamrolled thru the defending champs and last year’s AFC number-one seed scoring 72 points in 2 games. They’ll want to keep that momentum moving to take control of the division in Miami, which has plenty of shoot-out potential. Allen and Diggs are a bulletproof stack and a no-brainer for cash but they will eat up your cap space. Gabe Davis still has a lingering ankle injury, but if he is good to go for Sunday, try to plug him in for the up-side value. Otherwise, pivot to Dawson Knox.

Dolphins

6 Touchdowns for Tua in the comeback win in Baltimore, with Waddle and Tyreek both having 40-plus fantasy points last week. The number one-ranked defense is in town but without pro bowl safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Dane Jackson….oh boy are we in for a treat from Miami again! Salaries are up, but well worth it in this clash of these AFC East Titans. We’re good across the board for these three, start up your fins!

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, D. Knox (if G. Davis is out) G. Davis (if healthy)

Cash/GPP: T. Tagovailoa, J. Waddle, T. Hill

Eagles @ Commanders (+6.5) (O/U 47)

Eagles

They look to be the team to beat in the NFC, putting up 38 in Detroit and manhandling Minnesota at home. Hurts has shown to be fantasy reliable so far, and punishing the weak opposing defenses. A J Brown was quiet, but not needed last game. we saw Devonta Smith show up Monday night with 15 fantasy points. Running Back Miles Sanders has also been surprisingly trustworthy this season averaging 90 yards a game rushing. Dallas Goedert has been quiet but is due a game, owning 90 % of the snaps. Let it ride in Philly!

Commanders

Will Wentz get his revenge on the Eagles and pull off the upset at home? Don’t be so quick to jump on the hype train, he’s been way too inconsistent for me. He’s looked like a deer in headlights in the first half of each game so far but somehow pulls off a decent fantasy game in the end. Not against this defense, not after what happened to Cousins on Monday. Check out Curtis Samuel or Logan Thomas for Washington this week. Samuel is heavily used in the scheme and leading the team in targets (20) while Thomas owns the lion’s share of snaps (73%) for Commander tight ends.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown, M. Sanders, D. Goedert, C. Samuel

GPP: D. Smith, L. Thomas

Bengals @ Jets (+5) (O/U 45)

Bengals

The reigning AFC champs hit Broadway this week, but have looked like they’ve hit rock bottom at 0-2. Burrow’s reconstructed O-line has allowed him to be sacked tremendously but it may be the fact that he’s been holding the ball way too long. But his match-up is too good to be true and the Jets have no one in their secondary. Chase will feast, but Higgins comes at a discount and is a little more attractive. I didn’t forget about Mixon who should eat plenty here, (Jets run D @ 23rd overall) and grab a couple of Bengals for cash.

Jets

Flacco pulled a rabbit out of a hat on the road in Cleveland, can he run it back? Not worth the risk against Cincinnatti hungry for their first win. The rookie Garrett Wilson exploded for two touchdowns including the walk-off in the end zone and popped up on our radar. I still do like Michael Carter who still is leading the backfield and Elijah Moore’s price hit $5,000 on DraftKings who in my eyes is still the alpha. These Jets are viable in a GPP, but feel free to fade them if you want to play it safe.

Cash: J. Burrow, T. Higgins, J.Mixon

GPP: M. Carter, E. Moore, G. Wilson

Ravens @ Patriots (+2.5) (O/U 43.5)

Ravens

Don’t anticipate another back-and-forth game like Miami had in Week 2, Baltimore is averaging 31 points per game whereas the Pats are only putting up 12. Lamar is looking more and more this year like his old 2019 MVP form, giving Baltimore more of a reason to sign him long-term. He is totally safe this week on the road, as the Pats will not have anyone to contain him. Keep a close eye too on Devin Duvernay’s concussion status, if he is unable to play Demarcus Robinson would give you a nice cap space saver to slide in ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel).

Update: Duvernay cleared to play, fade Robinson.

Patriots

They may be able to slow down the Ravens and grind it out, but Mac Jones I’m afraid will not be able to put up as many points against them. And since the receiving core is so crowded, we truly never know where the ball is headed either. Rhamondre Stevenson still owns 40 % of that backfield and is listed as their change-of-pace running back, I would consider him a GPP flyer for potential check-downs by Jones.

Cash: L. Jackson, D. Robinson (if Duvernay is out)

GPP: R. Stevenson

Lions @ Vikings (-6) (O/U 53)

Lions

Even though their defense has been a hot mess, Detroit still can light up the scoreboard averaging 35 points per game. Of all the talent I think we need to go back to the well of Amon Ra who’s demanded the ball from Jared Goff dating back to last season. That’s 8 straight games of double-digit targets catching 68 balls with 8 touchdowns. He’s dominated the game plan for Detroit causing other players’ production to drop… so I’m interested in T J Hockenson at ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) for value in this pass-friendly game.

Vikings

Cousins looked awful Monday night, but Detroit will bring him back to the fantasy promise lands. He’ll look to feed Jefferson at will, who the Lions have been unable to slow down. In two games in 2021, J J has caught 18 balls for 306 yards and a touchdown. Very safe for cash, and how about a punt at tight end…Irv Smith. Minnesota wants to get him the ball, just ($3,100 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel), caught 5 of 8 targets with a touchdown in Phila. He also led in snaps amongst tight ends for Minnesota which is good to see.

Cash: K. Cousins, J. Jefferson, A. St. Brown, I. Smith

GPP: T. Hockenson, J. Goff

Raiders @ Titans (+2) (O/U 45.5)

Raiders

Vegas is probably the best 0-2 team in football. After suffering 2 heart-wrenching losses to open the season, they will look to beat up on the also win-less Titans. It appears Hunter Renfrow may miss this one because of concussion protocols, so Tennessee will see a heavy dose of Carr to Adams. Tennessee has also been struggling on offense with defenses exposing Tannehill as an imposter at quarterback, keeping them off the scoreboard and game-scripting out Derek Henry.

Titans

If the Titans want to make a stand this week, they’ll need to get back to the basics…run the damn ball. Henry needs to be used to his full potential, and if he can break off a few big chunks of yardage, that should open up the play-action passing routes. But the O-line is atrocious without Taylor Lewan, so Henry is a tournament option only, but I have a funny feeling that they’re going to increase his workload this Sunday.

Cash: D. Carr, D. Adams, Raiders DST

GPP: D. Henry

Saints @ Panthers (-3) (O/U 40.5)

Saints

Oh man, what pieces do we really want from the Saints in this match-up? Carolina’s defense is not as good as Tampa’s, but they can still cause Jameis, sore back and all, to turn the ball over. New Orleans has also shown us something on defense, and Baker has been out of rhythm himself. Good landing spot for defense, New Orleans holds its weight in a DST

Panthers

Baker looks like he still needs the training wheels on for this offense and lacks chemistry with his weapons, especially McCaffrey. Maybe they’ll get something going together in week 3 but just too risky for our cash games. Let’s wait another week for the offense to bloom, but I have no problem with that Panther D facing a broken Jameis.

Cash: Panthers DST

GPP: Saints DST

Texans @ Bears (-3) (O/U 40)

Texans

Lovie Smith is back in town, but nothing to get excited about really. Smith is an old-school former Bears coach who believes in playing defense and running the ball…(yawn). This game script will put Dameon Pierce in the driver’s seat and may be in line for a big game. Aaron Jones of the Packers torched the Bears for 132 yards on foot last week, at Pierce’s current DFS salary ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) those numbers are like an all-you-can-eat buffet. Chicago linebacker Roquan Smith has already been ruled out which makes Pierce even more appetizing.

Bears

Chicago has one of the top three offensive lines in the league and will be force-feeding David Montgomery up the gut of Houston’s front line. The volume is cranked up for Montgomery, who saw 80% of the snaps and averaged 8 yards per carry for 122. Chicago is still reluctant to let quarterback Justin Fields air it out (28 Pass Attempts in 2 games) and should continue to keep it on the ground.

Cash: D. Pierce, D Montgomery

Jaguars @ Chargers (-7) (O/U 47)

Jaguars

No J C Jackson (ankle) for LA… so it’s on for Trevor Lawerence! Kirk could have another monster game as he has been Lawrence’s shiny new toy in Jacksonville. The duo has connected on 12 catches for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season. I prefer these two in a tourney though, better safe than sorry. But hold the phone, Herbert is a little banged up with a rib and Chase Daniels has been taking first-team reps, we may want to use their defense if Herbert can’t go.

Chargers

Not only did Herbert pop up on the injury report, but Keenan Allen is also still there with his hammy. I hate to write this but we may need to keep Chargers out of our DFS. Even if they do give it a shot to play, they may not finish the game. Plenty of other ways to go this slate let’s fade LAC this time.

Cash: None

GPP: T. Lawrence, C. Kirk

Packers @ Bucs (-1.5) (41.5)

Packers

Aaron Rodgers has plummeted down the QB rankings mainly because his receiver core is on empty. I’m not feeling anyone for cash here if anything this will be a big Aaron Jones/A J Dillon day, but as we know you can’t run on the Bucs. We’ll take a pass in DFS on the offense, but the defense would be interesting since Brady is in the same boat.

Bucs

Brady could be totally de-weaponized in week 3. Evans was suspended, Godwin was injured, and everyone else’s status is still up in the air. But it looks like Fournette could be the last man standing in The Goat’s circle of trust. If he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a ton of work. Rodgers as well is having issues with the Packers being thin at receiver, Tampa’s D would be a smart move if this game does turn out to be very low scoring.

Cash: L. Fournette

GPP: GB DST, TB DST

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5) (O/U 48.5)

Rams

LA has owned the Cards since 2017 with a record of 10-1 and could make it 11-1 this Sunday if Stafford has a repeat performance. Serving up 272 yards with 3 touchdowns again would crush his salary but we may want to think twice about pairing with Kupp. He’s been held to only 6 catches per game in 2021 by Budda Baker and Byron Murphy, the only duo who has been able to contain him. I do like Higbee in this match-up, He is owning 94 % of the snaps in LA and is second in targets (20) behind Kupp.

Cardinals

Some good news for Kyler Murray as the Rams will be without corners, David Long and Cobie Durant. Even Jordan Fuller might not make it in after pulling a hamstring Thursday and would allow Murray to better take apart that secondary. The Cards have their own issues with James Connor being a game-time decision, so we should just look at the tight end Ertz, who has been rejuvenated in the desert. While catching 10 of 15 targets in 2 games with a touchdown, he’s generously priced at ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel)

Cash M. Stafford, C. Kupp, K. Murray

GPP: Z. Ertz, T. Higbee

Falcons @ Seahawks (+1) (O/U 42)

Falcons

Atlanta for being 0-2 has played pretty decently given their roster. They were up big in week 1 before the Saints rallied back and last week they made a comeback of their own against the defending champs. They actually have a shot here in Seattle, Mariota is not the most talented quarterback, but he takes what the defense gives him. Kyle Pitts has been on lock by defenses, opening the door for the rookie London to have a breakout ( 8 catches/86 yards/1TD). London will continue to lead the team unless defenses give him more respect and let Pitts finally eat. I’m OK with these three in a tournament only, Seattle missing Jamal Adams gives Mariota a little extra breathing room with the football.

Seahawks

Geno Smith has not done much so far, but not because of him more so the coaching staff. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been two Porsches covered up in a garage, collecting dust. We’ll see if Pete Carroll gives a little more leash to Geno and let him throw a little more especially against the 31st rank secondary in the league. It would also be nice to get a game from Rashaad Penny as Atlanta allow close to 5 yards per carry to opposing backs. Of course, all for GPP purposes everyone, we can’t use Seattle in cash.

Cash: None

GPP: M. Mariota, D. London, K. Pitts, G. Smith, DK Metcalf, T. Lockett, R. Penny

Cash Core 4

J. Hurts, J. Jefferson, T. Kelce, L. Fournette

GPP Core 4

M. Mariota, D. Pierce, I. Smith, C. Kirk

Stacks

J. Allen/S. Diggs/G. Davis; T. Tua/J. Waddle/T, Hill; D. Carr/D. Adams; J. Hurts/A. Brown; K. Cousins/J. Jefferson; P. Mahomes/T. Kelce; M. Stafford/C. Kupp; J. Goff/A. St. Brown; L. Fournette/ Tampa DST

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

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