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NFL DFS Week 15: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another fantastic week for the Win Daily family in Week 14! Our gross punt-play in GPPs of Russell Wilson paid off big time to offset the massive letdown from Dalvin Cook. Let’s keep it rolling for our Week 15 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Hurts is the frontrunner for MVP (in my opinion) and playing at an elite level with both his arm and his legs. He’s the clear top-option at the quarterback position and his salary reflects that. The Bears’ are the walking wounded on both sides of the football and will offer little resistance to this Eagles offense as a whole. Hurts is an elite option for both NFL DFS cash and GPP tournaments.

Stack Options: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Miles Sanders
Run-Back Options: Cole Kmet, Naked (no run-back)
Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD) – Another week of picking on the Titans’ pass-funnel defense leads us to one of my favorite quarterbacks in all of football. Justin Herbert has averaged over 48 pass attempts per game in the last three weeks, lol! The volume and healthy wide receiving core leaves Herbert in the “nut” matchup for quarterbacks against the Titans’ 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). He is my overall best value/upside option for both cash games and GPP lineups.

Stack Options: Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett
Run-Back Options: Derrick Henry, Chig Okonkwo
Dak Prescott ($6,200 DK / $7,500 FD) – Prescott is in another fantastic matchup this week and should be primed up to make a statement after a disaster of a game against the Houston Texans last week. The Jaguars defense is a bit-banged up and grade 30th in pass defense DVOA. My only concern with Prescott is the Cowboys’ red-zone offense is built around the running backs and are always a threat to steal the touchdown production, but that is football. The price is right with Prescott in this matchup and we may even get an additional boost with Tyron Smith expected to return from IR.

Stack Options: CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Tony Pollard
Run-Back Options: Christian Kirk
Tom Brady ($5,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – The gross, value play of the week! The recent strategy of using these value quarterbacks to afford the top-tier studs in good game environments (Davante Adams and St. Brown in Week 13 / Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, and St. Brown in Week 14) has been extremely successful for me the past two weeks and I’m going to continue to build that way. Sure, some of those studs above didn’t have smash games, but I’m getting 60+ points out of those combinations on a weekly basis that I can’t really get elsewhere.

Unlike my last two value quarterbacks for my NFL DFS GPP lineups (Kenny Pickett and Russell Wilson), Tom Brady does not have a rushing floor that I used to support my rostering of Pickett and Wilson. Having said that, Tom Brady does have something no one on this slate has other than maybe Patrick Mahomes (likely not in this matchup against Houston) and Justin Herbert have… Volume.

If you’re telling me I’ll lose 20+ rushing yards when rostering Brady over the likes of Kenny Pickett or Russell Wilson, but gain 12+ pass attempts (picture below)… I think that is a fine wash, if not, advantage to Tom Brady. At $5,500 and $6,800 on FanDuel, we do not need Brady to be that good when we have that type of volume.

Yes, this offense has looked horrendous lately, but the Bengals will likely be without their best pass rusher in Trey Hendrickson and their top cover-corner, Mike Hilton. This situation would be absolute sex on the beach if Tristan Wirfs can suit up for the Bucs, but it doesn’t sound like that will be the case. I’ll take the savings and low ownership that Brady offers in hopes he can go for 18+ at home against a depleted Bengals’ defense.

Stack Options: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Julio Jones (punt-value if he plays)
Run-Back Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon

The AETY Model Projects Brady for 44.9 Pass Attempts in Week 15

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes

NFL DFS Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – By far the safest running back on this slate going up against the Chargers’ run defense (25th in run defense DVOA). In terms of overall projected touches, Derrick Henry leads the AETY Model projections just in front of Josh Jacobs and James Conner. This is a fantastic matchup and a nice fantasy football environment in what should be an up-paced game in Los Angeles. Henry is a lock in cash games but potentially worthy of a fade in GPPs as he will likely be 40% owned… I’m not sure I have the stomach to fade him in any format.
Joe Mixon ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD) – Our concerns with Mixon sharing time with Samaje Perine were warranted last week as this was the first time all season Mixon fell below a 65% snap-share while healthy. Perine was not utilized much in the running game but he did get into the end-zone to upset all of the Mixon chalk fantasy players last week. NFL DFS is a game that we can really take advantage of people’s emotions and I’ll bet Mixon is sub-10% in ownership this week as everyone panics about Perine’s usage.

After re-watching that game, the Bengals left no doubt that Mixon is still their guy when they need to move the football on the ground. Yes, Perine will likely continue to have a solid role in the the passing-game work, but this offense targets the running backs in the passing game more than every team in the NFL besides the Chargers and the Buccaneers. There will be plenty to go around for Mixon.

Lastly, Vita Vea is set to miss another game this week for the Bucs and we saw how much this run defense struggles when he is away as the 49ers just rushed for over 7 yards per carry and 175 total rush yards on the Bucs last week. The Bengals grade 3rd overall in run offense DVOA making this a low-key great spot for Joe Mixon and the Bengals offense as a whole in your NFL DFS GPP lineups. Let’s go for a shootout!
Alvin Kamara ($6,800 DK / $7,600 FD) – Honestly, I was surprised to see Kamara show up as this strong of a play in the AETY Model, but without Mark Ingram, there is truly no one behind him. It was nice to also see that the prop market seems to agree this is a fantastic buy-low spot for Kamara as most sportsbooks opened Kamara’s all-purpose yard prop around 93 yards. The AETY Model projects him for 101 all-purpose yards and a significant implied probability of a touchdown. Kamara is in line for a large workload in a must-win game for the Saints against the Falcons 28th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Miles Sanders ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Miles Sanders is underpriced for his elite upside he and this Eagles’ offense possess on a weekly basis, especially against the Bears 29th ranked run defense (DVOA). Sanders has been on fire of late but we’ll always fear the threat of Jalen Hurts or one of these random backup running backs taking red-zone work away from him. Having said that, Sanders is coming off of the highest snap share he’s had since Week 5… maybe Nick Sirianni is finally unleashing Sanders. Maybe it was a fluke.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,900 DK / $7,600 FD) – A lead running back against the Houston Texans as a two-touchdown favorite. Yes, we’ll see Jerick McKinnon, but this should finally be the spot where we see Pachecho heavily utilized in the red-zone as the Chiefs kill the clock in what should be an absolute blowout.
Zonovan Knight ($5,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – In NFL DFS cash games, you can certainly go back to the well with Zonovan night on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I have no interest in that price. I’ll be fading Zonovan Knight and his 20% ownership tag in GPP contests as I really respect this Detroit Lions’ run defense lately. I tried to call their bluff last week with Dalvin Cook and I won’t make that mistake again… this Lions’ run defense is becoming a thing.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Ja’Maar Chase ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The Bucs secondary is in shambles and Jamel Dean is likely to miss this game. Ja’Maar Chase is the best wide receiver on this slate (honorable mention Davante Adams) and the AETY Model predicts this game to be a high-scoring affair.
CeeDee Lamb ($7,300 DK / $8,100 FD) – This is a fantastic matchup for Dak Prescott and an even better one for CeeDee Lamb. The Jaguars will mainly run a Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense and those are coverages CeeDee Lamb absolutely tears up and is targeted at a significantly higher clip than his already elite baseline. Jaguars’ slot-corner, Darious Williams is going to have his hands full.
Keenan Allen ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD) & Mike Williams ($6,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – We all know Keenan Allen is back as he’s leading the NFL in routes ran over the past three weeks and he’s seen 28 targets in the past two weeks, lol. More importantly, Mike Williams looked 100% healthy and that is going to be a problem for the Titans’ secondary. Both of these wideouts being healthy is a nightmare for opposing secondaries, so we’re looking at a potential double-stack blowup. Mike Williams will tear apart the Titans’ when they run their Cover-1 man defense (they run that a lot) and Keenan Allen should find his way when they drop to Cover-3 zone. I love them both!
Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Godwin is one of four players in the NFL who have over 100 total targets over their past 10 games (Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, and Davante Adams). The utilization is too great to ignore and now we get a cake matchup against the Bengals’ secondary who will be without their slot-corner, Mike Hilton. This is damn-near a must-win game for the Bucs and I’m expecting a shootout.
Christian Kirk ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – If you’ve been following Win Daily for a while, you’ll know I do not play Trevor Lawrence against teams that blitz a lot and create a lot of pressure for opposing quarterbacks. However, these are games where I love to roster the Jaguars top pass catcher and slot-receiver, Christian Kirk in what should be a high-scoring football game. This is a GPP play only for your NFL DFS lineups, but the public is going to be off of Christian Kirk because of the matchup against the rookie star corner, DaRon Bland.

Yes, Bland is an absolute stud so far in his young career, but Kirk has had his way with elite slot-cornerbacks in Will Harris (DET), Bryce Callahan (LAC), and the best slot-corner in the NFL, L’Jarius Sneed (KC) where Christian Kirk turned in his best fantasy performance of the year (34.5 DraftKings points). The theme here is that Christian Kirk gets elite usage when he faces teams that blitz a lot, especially when those mix in a lot of Cover-2 zone as well.
Garrett Wilson ($6,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – Another week of mis-priced Garrett Wilson (on DraftKings). Lock him up in your NFL DFS cash game lineups and he offers a significant floor/ceiling combination to consider in GPP builds. Keep in mind, he will be one of the highest owned receivers on the slate.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,800 DK / $7,300 FD) – I prefer exposure to the running game, but at sub-10% ownership, Smith-Schuster is an excellent pivot away from Wilson chalk. This is a matchup JuJu Smith-Schuster should destroy against Houston’s defense that runs nothing but Cover-2 and some Cover-3. They also refuse to blitz the quarterback. All three situations lead to an increased target-share for the Chiefs’ top wideout.
Chris Moore ($4,200 DK / $6,000 FD) – Looks like the public is going to follow the Week 14 production for Chris Moore. It should be a nice gamescript here for the floor in NFL DFS cash games but I have zero interest in GPP builds.
Elijah Moore ($3,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – All signs point to Corey Davis being OUT this week so we’ll simply use Elijah Moore as cheap exposure to a strong fantasy environment against the Lions’ secondary. Moore has 16 targets in the past two games and is 6th in the NFL in routes ran during that timeframe. We cannot say that about or anything close to that about any other wide receiver in that $3K price range. He’d be the Discord Diamond, but he won’t be 1% owned… and as of now, I do not have a 1% diamond this week.

*Moving off of Elijah Moore with Zach Wilson.

Discord Diamond is officially: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Discord for more details).

Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Michael Gallup, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD)
Dalton Schultz ($4,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – The second top-option on this slate for the tight-end position but at a significant discount from Kelce. I’ve wrote enough about the Cowboys’ passing attack but I love this spot for Schultz as well, as he destroys Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone, just like CeeDee Lamb. Do I hear a double stack?
Greg Dulcich ($3,600 DK / $5,600 FD) – I won’t get into all of the statistics from Brett Rypien’s sample size in the NFL, but I will summarize it: He abuses the tight-end! A week after Dulcich was a bit of a let-down and 35% owned in all formats, NO ONE will go back to him this week solely because of said let-down and no Russell Wilson. What happened to everyone picking on Arizona against tight-ends? They still rate 30th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends and now we have a quarterback who will target him more than Wilson did. I don’t get why anyone would just cross his name off their tight-end list.
Chig Okonkwo ($3,100 DK / $5,100 FD) – It is absolutely disgusting to see all of the public now on the guy we invented weeks ago on the livestream, but as discussed last week, if Okonkwo had a big day against the Jaguars (we wished that he didn’t), he would be the stone chalk in Week 15 against the Chargers. Play him in cash. In GPPs, I guess it’s fine as long as Treylon Burks is out, but chalk, punt tight-ends never seem to end well. On the bright side, he is a stud and Derwin James is OUT for the Chargers.

Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett, Juwan Johnson, Tyler Conklin, Cade Otton

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Derrick Henry
Zonovan Knight
Justin Herbert
Chris Godwin
Denver Broncos

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 15

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

If you didn’t make the playoffs in your season long, then welcome to DFS if you are just joining us! Week 14 we crushed, what else is new? Russell Wilson blew up your lineup can you believe it? He was in our cash game breakdown along with Jerry Jeudy catching three touchdowns. Time to break down Week 15 and get back into the money once again. Remember to check in on our discord for all news and questions to help you get ready for Sunday’s ten-game slate. This article is here to help you decide on a strategy for who to pick up in DFS from each game of the slate, so let’s do this!

Sunday Main Slate 12/18/22

Eagles @ Bears (+9) (O/U 48.5)

Eagles

The number one MVP candidate Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles should continue their onslaught of the NFL in Chicago. The Bears have been unable to stop anybody from scoring points let alone the best team in the NFL. It will be an air raid, forming a big lead by halftime and then running it down Chicago’s throat in the second half. Start up as many Eagles as possible, the more the merrier.

Bears

Justin Fields has been cleared to play, but is it worth putting him out there against one of the top defenses in the league? If he can pay off his salary, it would have to be with his legs, but that’s a very risky move this week (2nd in DVOA to quarterbacks). Chicago’s top receiver Darnell Mooney went down with a season-ending injury before their bye week, leaving Cole Kmet as the only game in town. But to be safe, stay away from the Bears and start the Philly defense, which could have less than 10% ownership.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown, D. Smith, M. Sanders

GPP: D. Goedert (if activated off IR), C. Kmet

Cowboys @ Jaguars (+4) (O/U 48)

Cowboys

Dallas has been leaning on their run game with their one-two-punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, keeping them in the playoff picture. The success of the game plan in retrospect has driven down the volume and DFS salary of quarterback Dak Prescott. Although I do like both running backs along with Cee Dee Lamb and Schultz, Dak is just way too cheap to pass up on, especially against Jacksonville (26th DVOA to quarterbacks)

Jaguars

There are going to be some points to be put up on the scoreboard in this game, and with the Jaguars most likely playing from behind, Trevor Lawrence should be busy. The Cowboys love the blitz, so he’ll need to get the ball out quickly, and what better receiver than Christian Kirk? As he approaches 1000 yards with seven touchdowns on the season, Kirk will lineup in the slot and use his great separation ability to move the chains.

Cash: D. Prescott, E. Elliot, T. Pollard, C. Lamb

GPP: C. Kirk, D Schultz, T. Lawrence

Chiefs @ Texans (+14) (O/U 49)

Chiefs

Kansas City rolls into Houston as heavy favorites, so there’s always the factor of a very safe but pricey Patrick Mahones and Travis Kelce may sit out in the second half. This brings rookie running back Isaiah Pacheco back into the conversation. He’ll be a safe investment facing the Texans’ 32nd in DVOA run defense in a positive game script. Don’t fall for the trap of Jerick McKinnon, this game will be dominated, and his third-down capabilities will not be needed in this one. check out that Chiefs DST too. Houston has been playing quarterback musical chairs lately, which could spell out some turnovers.

Texans

The 2023 drive can’t get here any sooner for Houston. As we watch Lovie Smith play around with quarterbacks in tight ends who knows what will see out there? One thing for sure is Chris Moore. Receiver Nico Collins was ruled out and Brandin Cooks has been asking for a trade, possibly faking his injuries all season. Making for the second week in a row, Chris Moore is the top option again in Houston, against a pass-friendly defense in Kansas City (32nd DVOA to receivers).

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, I. Pacheco, Chiefs DST

GPP: C. Moore

Lions @ Jets (-1) (O/U 44.5)

Lions

Jared Goff on the road has not looked good this season. And against the stingy Jets’ defense, I’d be a little weary of taking any Detroit players this weekend. The weather looks to be cold and wet in New Jersey, but with news breaking that Mike White will sit and Zach Wilson is back under center, give me that Lions DST all day.

Jets

Say it ain’t so Coach Salah! Mike White’s ribs will sit him down forcing second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back into the mix. This crushes, the dreams of having Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore in so many lineups this weekend, leaving The only safe play as running back Bam Knight. But don’t forget Jared Goff is in town to play in the elements, take a shot with the Jets DST baby!

Cash: Z. Knight

GPP: Jets DST, Lions DST

Steelers @ Panthers (-3) (O/U 37.5)

Steelers

Oh boy, this could get ugly. Kenny Pickett is doubtful, which could lead to a quarterback timeshare of the biscuit Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. Even if Pittsburgh chooses to run the ball hard with Najee, he’s been banged up all season. Give me some of that Carolina DST.

Panthers

The Sam Darnold experience hasn’t been too bad, as they make a run at the NFC south division. The top pass catch and stud DJ Moore was shaken up by a knee sprain, which may lead to Terrace Marshall getting a few extra looks. For $3,500 on DraftKings, he’s worth a gander.

Cash: Carolina DST

GPP: T. Marshall, DJ Moore (if healthy)

Falcons @ Saints (-4.5) (O/U 43.5)

Falcons

It’s officially Desmond Ridder season. So we shall wait and see, where we may have a nice connection with fellow rookie Drake London. But they would be very risky in DFS this weekend, take a shot in a GPP if you’re feeling lucky. rookies do make rookie mistakes so the Saints’ DST would be a nice play here.

Saints

Well, the Big Easy will be rolling with Andy Dalton again at quarterback. Let’s not even go there, Alvin Kamara will own the entire backfield now that Mark Ingram is done for the season, and at $6,800 on DraftKings, I’m all in. New Orleans’ punt-tight end of the year could be back on the field as well, go grab Juwan Johnson if he’s available.

Cash: A. Kamara

GPP: J. Johnson, Saints DST, D. London, D. Ridder

Patriots @ Raiders (+1) (O/U 44.5)

Patriots

Mac Jones and the Patriots will try to lock up the seventh seed in the AFC in Sin City, a game with some potential for fireworks. But they’ve been hit badly by injuries to the running back and receiver positions. Lucky for them to be playing the Raiders, who cannot even defend against AARP members (27th DVOA to quarterbacks) these days. Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Ty Thornton may hit a ton of value at receiver, and Damien Harris (if healthy) at running back would take over for the injured Rhamondre Stevenson. Otherwise, go in deep for Pierre Strong or Kevin Harris for a Milli-Maker shot!

Raiders

If the Raiders do somehow manage to make it into the playoffs, it will be on the shoulders of Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. The window is getting smaller and smaller, so it may be more on Adams this week because of the tough run defense of the Patriots. Adams is a lock all around DFS, especially since Derek Carr put on his blinders, solely looking for him to get open all year.

Cash: D. Adams, D. Harris (if he plays)

GPP: N.Agholor, K. Bourne, T. Thornton, H. Henry, P. Strong/K. Harris ( if D. Harris is out)

Cardinals @ Broncos (-3) (O/U 36)

Cardinals

So who will be throwing the ball and calling plays in Arizona this weekend? We all saw Kyler Murray go down Monday night and now backup Colt McCoy is banged up. Hopkins is safe with McCoy, but who knows if McSorley can keep the Cardinals’ number-one receiver fed. The only reliable play in Arizona would be James Conner, who would be in line for a ton of work due to the shakiness at quarterback.

Broncos

With a low-point total, a shaky backup, and a possible third-string quarterback, the Bronco defense is a must–start. Denver has issues at quarterback too with Russell Wilson, who may not play. Enter backup Brett Rypien, who has a huge man crush on tight ends(8 targets). He will be all over Dulcich if he gets the call, otherwise, we pivot to Jeudy again if Russell plays.

Update: Wilson is out, with Courtland Sutton and Kendall Hinton… Fire up Jeudy!,

McSorely starting for the Cardinals

Cash: Broncos DST

GPP: J. Conner, G. Dulcich, J. Jeudy

Bengals @ Bucs (+3.5) (O/U 44)

Bengals

The Bucs’ secondary will be a hot mess on Sunday, especially now without cornerback Jamel Dean. Fellow corner Sean Murphy–Bunting along with safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards may also miss Week 15, making it open season for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Great news for Joe Burrow, and even Joe Mixon now that Tampa will also be without defensive tackle Veta Veya. Stack up on the Bengals for a possible slate-breaker!

Bucs

If Tampa looks to lock up the NFC South and keep their playoff hopes alive, they’ll need to start making some plays. They can, and Brady is due for a monster game. What he lacks with his legs he can make up for with his passing attempts, and for $5,500 on DraftKings, I would take a shot. He’s your pay-down quarterback of the week, with both All-Pro receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in line for the usual heavy workload.

Cash: T. Brady, J. Chase, J. Mixon, C. Godwin

GPP: J. Burrow, M. Evans, T. Higgins

Titans @ Chargers (-3) (O/U 47.5)

Titans

If we’re looking to pay up this week at running back, look no further than Derrick Henry. The Chargers have struggled all season defending the run (28th in DVOA), allowing close to 150 RuYDS/game. Henry could hit that mark by halftime at Sofy Stadium. He won’t run every down though, so when Tannehill looks to throw it downfield, his new shiny toy Chig Okonkwo will be there on the receiving end. Both are safe, but chalky plays in Tennessee.

Chargers

Tennessee defends against the pass as well as the Chargers against the run…terribly. The Titans have been a pass-funnel defense at second to last in DVOA on the year, putting Justin Herbert and his receivers in the driver’s seat. Give me a stack of powder blue jerseys in my lineups this weekend and I could sleep like a baby. Allen, Ekeler, and Williams can roll out in any game style, but Gerald Everett would be sneaky.

Cash: D. Henry, J. Herbert, K. Allen

GPP: C. Okonkwo, A. Ekeler, M. Williams, G. Everett

Cash Core

J. Hurts, D. Henry, J. Chase, C. Moore, T. Kelce

GPP Core

T. Brady, M. Sanders, D. Adams. I. Pacheco, G. Dulcich

Stacks

T. Brady, C. Godwin, M. Evans, W/ Run-back J. Mixon or J. Burrow, J. Chase, T. Higgs

J. Herbert, K. Allen, M. Williams, W/ Run-back D. Henry

P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, I. Pacheco, W/ Run-back C. Moore

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 15. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 14

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Week 13 in the books and it was a monster for us! A less than one percent-owned Trent Sherfield smashed in our lineups for over 14 fantasy points, we sweated it out for that one bomb he caught and it paid off for us! Let’s get right into Week 14’s breakdown, where we may find another scratch-off winner like Sherfield..who knows?! It’s a tight slate this week with six teams on bye, and as the player pool shrinks, the less of a margin for error. Stay on our Discord for all news, questions, and expert analysis. Week 14 is here fellas, are we ready…Here we go!

Sunday Main Slate 12/11/22

Vikings @ Lions (-2.5) (O/U 53)

Vikings

Well, here it is on a silver platter ladies and gentlemen, the game of the week. In what appears to be the contest to attack in DFS with a 53 under/over, pick up a few purple jerseys for your lineups. Jefferson put up a dud in their first meeting, so I anticipate some retribution from number 18. By all means, mix it up and grab other pieces to be different…Cousins, Dalvin, Thielen, and oh yeah my favorite Viking, The Hock. Detroit tossed him to the side for draft capital back in Week 8, so you know he is destined to get in the box against his old teammates in his old stomping ground. Minnesota has put up 60 points in the last two games, Let’s ride!

Lions

Same scenario here guys, grab your Lions. Both Detroit and Minnesota allow the most points (25) and total yardage (400YDS/Game) in the league. When two teams face off with bad defenses, it’s a DFS match made in heaven. Jared Goff may be the most popular quarterback of the slate, because of his price and upside. Amon-Ra Is on a serious heater scoring over 30 fantasy points in two games, sign me up. But let’s get different on the Detroit side too. Running backs Jamal Williams, the end zone monster with 14 touchdowns and D’Andre Swift are both enticing under $6K on DraftKings, but how about DJ Chark? He could be sneaky against a Vikings’ 30th DVOA to receivers and easily give us another repeat performance of 14 fantasy points.

Cash: K. Cousins, J. Jefferson, A. St. Brown, J. Goff

GPP: D. Cook, J. Williams, DJ Chark, TJ Hockenson, D. Swift

Eagles @ Giants (+7) (O/U 45.5)

Eagles

Philly could roll into Met Life Stadium and steamroll over a Giants’ team destroyed by injuries on both sides of the ball. Besides New York’s already beat-up secondary, they now lose their top pass rusher, Leonard Williams, this Sunday. Fly Eagles Fly… Hurts is always cash and GPP-friendly, and his teammates AJ Brown, and Devonta Smith pair nicely if you can squeeze their hefty salaries in. But we may see more of a Miles Sanders-type of game script. He may see plenty of carries against a 26th DVOA run defense, chewing up the clock against a Giants’ team that could struggle to move the chains.

Giants

The slot has been the key way to get the ball moving against the tough-as-nails Eagles’ defense. Punt alert, Ritchie James…let’s roll! The Giants most likely will be playing from behind all game, and with Saquon Barkley now on the injury report, quarterback Danny Jones becomes the best rusher by default (if Barkley sits out). Another nice dart throw…Rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger has built some chemistry with Jones, picking up where he left off after an eye injury and getting five looks. Well worth a shot at $3,300 on DraftKings, who’s no stranger to the end zone (3TDs).

Cash: J. Hurts, AJ Brown, D. Smith

GPP: M. Sanders, D. Jones, D. Bellinger, R. James

Jets @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 43.5)

Jets

In his third start this season, quarterback Mike White will have his feet put to the fire against a tough Buffalo defense on the road. Will he get to throw it 57 times like in Minnesota? Not a chance, but bet your last dollar the ball will be aimed at the rookie Garrett Wilson, who caught eight of an insane 15 targets. Although I’m positive the Buffalo defensive coordinator has something in store for Garrett after watching the tape, so taking a stab at Elijah Moore for $3,500 on DraftKings would be sexy in a GPP.

Bills

Buffalo needs this game to stay on top of the division and even up the score with New York. The bills go as far as their leader Josh Allen will take them. He’s got a tough match up but that didn’t stop him back in Week 9 from putting up 27 fantasy points in a road loss to New York. The Jets have been stingy to receivers ranking 6th in DVOA, so we may not want to pay up for Diggs this week. It’s feeling like a paydown week in Buffalo for me, and it’s for a chalk-a-potomous James Cook at $4,600 on DraftKings. The rookie caught six passes on top of rushing for 64 yards last week and appears to be moving in on Devon Singletary’s job at the moment.

Cash: J. Allen, G. Wilson

GPP: E. Moore, J. Cook

Browns @ Bengals (-6) (O/U 47)

Browns

Well, you got what you paid for if you took DeShaun Watson last week, a six-burger. Nick Chubb also had an off game in Houston, but he wasn’t needed since the Cleveland Browns’ defense put up 30 fantasy points themselves. I’ll look for him to bounce back this weekend against Cincinnati, pairing him with that defense that went from putting up 30 fantasy points to second cheapest on the slate…Who is in charge of the pricing on DK? As for Watson, I’m still in wait-and-see mode, but Amari Cooper did see the most targets (9) from the Browns’ new signal caller, if he plays he’s a tournament darling.

Bengals

Cleveland has owned Burrow for his career but is when Joe breaks out of his slump against his division rival. On paper, it does with a healthy Chase, Tee Higgins, and of course Joe Mixon, who may see a ton of work after missing a game from a concussion, against one of the worst run defenses in football. Don’t forget about Watson’s egg he laid in Houston either. He’ll get there eventually, but this week he may still show some rust. Give me a piece of the Bengals’ defense too.

Cash: J. Burrow, J. Mixon, N. Chubb, J. Chase

GPP: A. Cooper, T. Higgins, Browns DST, Bengals DST

Texans @ Cowboys (-17) (O/U 44.5)

Texans

Well, it looks like Houston is mailing it in for the season for the number one pick. Receivers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins have already been ruled out, opening up the entire offense for the rookie Dameon Pierce. We may not want to go that route though, as 17-point underdogs the Texans will be playing from behind a ton. Davis Mills will be returning as the starter and will have Chris Moore and Philip Dorsett to target, providing us some value this weekend at receiver.

Cowboys

The absolute worst rushing defense will face one of the best backfield duos in the league this weekend in Dallas. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott have averaged a combined 30 fantasy points per game this season, a plug-and-play for a slot or two at running back in DFS. I don’t mind rolling them both out there at the same time either, stack them with that Dallas defense too, if you can afford them.

Cash: T. Pollard, Cowboys DST, E. Elliot

GPP: C. Moore, P. Dorsett

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 41.5)

Jaguars

Receiver Christian Kirk came through big time last week as we called it, but it might be a Zay Jones kind of day in Tennessee. The Titans just do not blitz, which should open up a lot of routes for Jones, If he plays. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence does have a bum foot but we’ll give it a go, so let’s wait and see some news on Zay’s injury.

Titans

Treylon Burks, Tennessee’s number-one receiver, won’t make it out on the field this weekend. No worries, Tennessee will just keep riding the Derek Henry train until he falls off the tracks. Maybe not this Sunday though, as he has plowed over Jacksonville for his career. In his last three games since the 2020 season, he has rushed for a total of 429 yards with five touchdowns. He’ll have low ownership again this weekend, so jam him in your GPP lineups.

Cash: D. Henry

GPP: Z. Jones

Ravens @ Steelers (-2.5) (O/U 37)

Ravens

Baltimore as we all know by now will be without quarterback Lamar Jackson with a knee issue. Backup Tyler Huntley gets the start, where we probably won’t see much of a drop-off in an offense that is bone dry in weapons. Huntley is a risk, but as we have seen in previous starts Mark Andrews gets all the love when he is under center. Last season In five games alongside Huntley, Mark Andrews totaled 43 catches for 498 yards and three touchdowns.

Steelers

I’ve mentioned Huntley as a risky play, and he’s coughed up the ball four times in four starts in 2021. The Pittsburgh DST is a great play at home especially if TJ Watt gets on the field. Now Kenny Pickett didn’t give us what we expected in Atlanta, but I like the rookie at home against the Baltimore secondary who is 25th in DVOA to quarterbacks. $5,200 on DraftKings is a huge value on a slate trying to roster pieces from Detroit and Minnesota.

Cash: Steelers DST, M. Andrews

GPP: T. Huntley, K. Pickett

Chiefs @ Broncos (+9) (O/U 43)

Chiefs

The matchup looks grim on paper but that shouldn’t keep us from taking one of the best quarterback/tight end duos in history. Mahomes and Kelce should see some low ownership this weekend, jam them in tournaments too. But I still can’t stop clicking on Pacheco! Less than 10 percent owned and for two weeks finding the endzone, he’s like found money. And let’s not forget about the defense cheat code for DFS, Broncos country…the Chiefs DST is in play here.

Broncos

Is the season over yet? That’s what everybody in Denver has been saying since Week 1. It makes me nauseous of the thought of taking Russell Wilson for $5,200 on DraftKings, but it’s the Chiefs who are one of the most pass-friendly defenses (27th in DVOA). And now without Courtland Sutton this Sunday, Jerry Jeudy is a lock for volume for a bargain at $5,400 on DraftKings.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, J. Jeudy

GPP: R. Wilson, I. Pacheco, Chiefs DST

Panthers @ Seahawks (-4.5) (O/U 43.5)

Panthers

DJ Moore is the guy again in Carolina since Sam Darnold has been plugged back in at quarterback for the Panthers. Last week he only saw six looks, but they cashed in for four grabs with 103 yards and a touchdown. Hey but wait a sec, remember D’Onta Foreman? The dude has had four 100-yard games with four touchdowns since taking over McCaffrey. Facing the second-worst run defense in Seattle? Yea, I like them apples.

Seahawks

The Seahawk backfield has been hit hard by injuries, and we still don’t know if Kenneth Walker III or backup DeeJay Dallas will be able to go. Head coach Pete Carroll may want to just throw it all day, and nobody can guard DK Metcalf. But is Travis Homer worth a shot at in the Seattle running back committee? I think he is. On their depth chart, Homer is the true second back on the depth chart, seeing 30 percent of the snaps when Walker was dominating the position. Now that he’s healthy again, he could be very sneaky as a flex in a tournament.

Cash: DJ Moore, DK Metcalf

GPP: T. Homer (if Walker III is out), D. Foreman

Bucs @ Niners (-3.5) (O/U 37)

Bucs

We are still waiting on some news out of Tampa regarding the status of Fournette. If he can’t roll out, lock up Rashaad White. Don’t drink the kool-aid on San Francisco being a shut-down run defense either, they just haven’t seen any big threats in my opinion. The Chargers, Falcons, and Bears all feasted in rushing, leaving no reason for White to get his. One more nugget I’d like to add via Stix… Julio Jones could be this week’s Trent Sherfield fellas. For only $4,000 on DK he has a clear height advantage over the Niners’ worst corner Lenoir. Julio is a well-worth dart throw on a very unowned receiver for the slate.

Niners

Well, it’s officially Brock Purdy season, since Jimmy G broke his foot last week against the Dolphins. The rookie filled in nicely, throwing two touchdowns in the victory. The Niners should take the ultra-conservative approach moving forward, relying mostly on their defense and keeping the ball in their playmakers like McCaffrey. CMC’s workload may be on the rise, but risky until we see what we get on Sunday. If you’re feeling lucky, take a dirt cheap Purdy ($5,100 on DraftKings) in a GPP and mix it up in cash or a tournament with McCaffrey.

Cash: R. White (if Fournette is out), C. McCaffrey (GPP too)

GPP: B. Purdy, J. Jones

Cash Core

J. Hurts/A. St. Brown/J. Mixon/T. Pollard/M. Andrews

GPP Core

J. Goff/Z. Jones(if he plays)/D. Henry/TJ Hockenson/DJ Moore

Stacks

J. Goff/A. St. Brown/J. Williams/DJ Chark/D. Swift

K. Cousins/J. Jefferson/D. Cook/TJ Hockenson

J. Hurts/AJ Brown/D. Smith/M. Sanders

J. Burrow/J. Chase/T. Higgins/J. Mixon

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 14. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 14: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Monster Week 13 for the Win Daily family! The Discord Diamond, Trent Sherfield paid off in bunches, though I didn’t expect it to happen the way that it did (we were lucky with that as he only had one reception, but it was a 75-yard house call). Let’s keep it rolling for our Week 14 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

SLATE NOTES: This is a unique slate with only one game possessing a total over 50-points and that will certainly bring a lot of condensed chalk. I won’t write about the top-tier quarterbacks because this slate seems to scream play down towards the value quarterbacks, but if you want to get different, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen will all be around 5% ownership in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow ($7,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – Burrow is the obvious “value” in terms of the top tier quarterbacks who regularly put up solid fantasy outputs. This is one of the higher total games on the slate at 47.5-points and Burrow has been on a tear of late. All of his weapons are back and healthy and the addition of Joe Mixon should really open up this offense as a whole, against the Cleveland Browns 27th ranked defense in total DVOA. Burrow is one of the few who are getting massive respect from the sportsbooks with a passing prop around 280 yards and a passing touchdown prop showing an implied probability of 2+ passing touchdowns.

Stack Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon
Run-Back Options: Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb
Jared Goff ($5,600 DK / $7,100 FD) – Hello Mr. Chalk, Jared Goff. If that sounds absolutely disgusting to you, I don’t blame you. I have dug into this slate in every single way that I can in hopes to find a strong reason to fade Jared Goff… I was unsuccessful. Simply put, on DraftKings, Jared Goff is going to be 70% owned in cash games and likely 30-40% owned in NFL DFS GPP contests. That is absurd, but it makes sense in this matchup.

Having said that, as much as I would like to get different in my main lineup (I’m using Goff in cash regardless), I cannot find a lineup construction that offers the high-floor and high-ceiling combo that I get when I do start my build with Jared Goff. So, in order for me to get different when using Goff, I’m going IN on this Minnesota @ Detroit game-stack. And when I mean “IN”, I mean all the way the f*** in. Based on early ownership projections, the field is going to pair Goff with Amon-Ra St. Brown and run it back with Justin Jefferson. That is the chalk trio of the week (in addition to Greg Dulcich who we will discuss later). If those are your first four clicks of your lineup, good luck cashing this week unless you get significantly different elsewhere.

So, my plan of attack is to get even more exposure to this game and I’ll do that by adding DJ Chark to that Amon-Ra/Goff pairing (double-stacking it) and running it back with Justin Jefferson AND Dalvin Cook.

My narrative here: Minnesota has no issues moving the football and I want their two biggest touchdown threats in Cook and Jefferson. In return, I want Goff and the Lions to have to rely on the air attack and using their two biggest red-zone threats in St. Brown and DJ Chark. If this game script goes in favor of Jamaal Williams for NFL DFS lineups, I’m in trouble (hint: maybe that is your way to get different in this game).

Stack Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, D’Andre Swift
Run-Back Options: Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, TJ Hockenson, Adam Thielen
Russell Wilson ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – VOMIT ALERT! I’ve had a lot of success recently by using a pure punt quarterback and pairing them with a cheap pass-catcher. As mentioned above, Greg Dulcich is going to be the highest owned player on this slate, and for good reason. The negative gamescript (assuming Kansas City has their way with Denver) bodes great for Dulcich and possibly Jerry Jeudy (Courtland Sutton is OUT). I look at Dulcich the same way I looked at Pat Freiermuth last week. He’s a valuable, chalk tight-end who is a top-two target in their offense, in a good matchup.

So, like Kenny Pickett last week (he honestly didn’t get there, but my lineups did due to the price of Pickett and Freiermuth allowing me to fill my lineup with studs), I need Wilson to find a way to get 15+ points and be efficient in the red-zone. Similar to Pickett, Russell Wilson has a bit of a rushing floor that not many quarterbacks on this slate have other than Tyler Huntley, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes. Huntley is the only one in the same price-tier as Wilson, but I have no interest in Huntley against the Steelers defense (maybe I’m right on that fade, maybe I’m wrong… I’m not telling you not to play Huntley… he offers great leverage if you think the Steelers’ defense chalk can fail).

*I have no interest in Kendall Hinton.

Stack Options: Greg Dulcich, Jerry Jeudy
Run-Back Options: Travis Kelce, Isiah Pachecho, JuJu Smith-Schuster

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith (incredible leverage play against the chalk Panthers’ defense)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD) – Derrick Henry was a non-factor last week against a very stout Eagles’ run defense (thanks a lot to Jordan Davis). Henry was flat-out gamescripted out of that contest in a hurry. This week, things get a bit easier for Derrick Henry as he’ll be at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a more neutral, if not positive gamescript. Jacksonville’s run defense is much improved this year, but Derrick Henry has the highest implied probability for a touchdown and rushing yards in both the AETY Model and sportsbooks this week.
Dalvin Cook ($7,300 DK / $8,700 FD) – Spoke more about Dalvin Cook above with Jared Goff. Priority play for me in NFL DFS GPP contests on DraftKings specifically.
Joe Mixon ($6,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – Mixon is back from concussion protocol and is likely to be the highest owned running back on the slate as this is the “nuts” matchup against the Browns’ 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). In cash, you likely need to take the chalk route and ride Mixon, but in NFL DFS GPP contests, I have my reservations. It seems as if some of the public is worried about Samaje Perine carving out himself a sustainable role in this offense… Some in this industry think that is nonsense, others think it has some teeth.

I am one of those that thinks Perine getting respectable snaps is a real possibility. I look at it this way: the Bengals are a much better football team when both Mixon and Perine are healthy. This is a team with Superbowl aspirations and Superbowl talent. I find it hard to believe that the Bengals would ask Joe Mixon to pass block and take all of the third-down work when Samaje Perine has proven he is very capable of doing so himself. Maybe I am wrong, but I’d much rather find the extra $400 on DraftKings this week in GPP contests and pay-up for Dalvin Cook at half the ownership. If Mixon comes out and doesn’t leave the field, I’ll sleep just fine knowing that’s how I didn’t have a great fantasy weekend.
Isiah Pachecho ($5,700 DK / $7,300 FD) – Cheap exposure to the Kansas City offense in a plus matchup where they are projected to have a significant lead throughout this game. I’m going right back to the well on Isiah Pachecho this week and almost took down $100,000 because of him last week (if Travis Kelce doesn’t fumble on that put-away drive, I likely get the 2-3 extra points from Pacheco to take down the tournament… sigh). Pacheco is starting to ramp up his route running (only three less routes than McKinnon last week) and that mid-season narrative that he doesn’t catch passes is slowly going by the waste side. Go get yourself two touchdowns, Mr. Pacheco!

*UPDATE: I’ll keep an eye on Leonard Fournette. If he is OUT, Rachaad White becomes a cash-game freesquare and viable in GPP contests as well.

Honorable Mention: Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, D’Onta Foreman, James Cook (risky as hell but the sportsbooks opened his rushing prop equal to their RB1, Devin Singletary)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

*Some of these plays below are no-brainers that you already know are in a fantastic fantasy environment for both NFL DFS cash games and GPP lineups, so I’ll spare you some time and skip their write-ups.

Justin Jefferson ($9,000 DK / $9,300 FD)
AJ Brown ($8,000 DK / $8,400 FD) & Devonta Smith ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jalen Hurts is my favorite quarterback on this slate but the price is significant if you’re trying to get quality exposure to Minnesota and Detroit. If you can find a creative way to do so (or full-fade that game), AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are in incredible matchups here against the Giants’ 28th ranked pass defense (DVOA). Both of these Eagles’ wideouts tear up Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense and that is what we will see in New York.
Ja’Maar Chase ($7,900 DK / $8,700 FD)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD)
DK Metcalf ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD) & Tyler Lockett ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – My second favorite low-owned stack (behind the Eagles) is the Seattle Seahawks against a respectable Carolina secondary. Despite the Carolina Panthers having a solid, healthy secondary, you know how I feel about DK Metcalf… you cannot cover him. The Panthers are likely to be 20% or more in ownership in all NFL DFS contests this weekend and simply using the Seahawks’ passing attack against their Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defense is beautiful tournament leverage.
DJ Moore ($5,500 DK / $6,900 FD) – Moore is the only game in town for this Carolina passing attack and will likely receive a significant amount of ownership. In cash games, that is something we’ll want to ride and if you want to take the cheap WR1 in NFL DFS GPP contests, I’m okay with it as he offers a perfect, value run-back to Seattle stacks.
Jerry Jeudy ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – If I’m playing Russell Wilson, I have to be interested in his top pass-catcher in Jerry Jeudy now that Courtland Sutton is out. Kendall Hinton drawing 10% ownership is laughable. I’ll ride with one of the best route runners in the NFL in a likely negative gamescript against a beatable Chiefs’ secondary. Jeudy is an excellent 2% owned pivot off of DJ Moore chalk, but you would have to trust Russell Wilson if you’re playing Jeudy… that is tough to do and this play is not for the faint of heart.
Zay Jones ($4,700 DK / $6,300 FD) – Not a big fan of tooting the own horn, but how dead on were we last week about fading Zay Jones and jamming in all the Christian Kirk that we could? This week, I love going back to Zay Jones as he was a massive letdown for the donkey public last week but enters a prime, get-right matchup against a Titans’ defense that refuses to blitz the quarterback (when Trevor Lawrence struggles most). We’ve written up the Titans’ being an absolute pass funnel defense and at this price, Zay Jones is a perfect player to take advantage of that brutal secondary.
THE DISCORD DIAMOND…

Julio Jones ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – Back by popular demand is the 0% projected ownership Discord Diamond. We absolutely smashed last week with Trent Sherfield (again, we got lucky, not really happy about that, but it worked) and we’ll go back to the well this week with Julio Jones?!

There is not a ton of wide receiver “punt value” that I believe in this week and the only players that fit the mold for the Discord Diamond (in terms of routes ran, price, and ownership) were:

– Elijah Moore (still like him, this should be an excellent matchup on the inside against a struggling Taron Johnson and the Bills’ secondary as a whole)
– Phillip Dorsett (meh)
– Julio Jones

So… yea, looking at the options above, we’re going with Julio Jones. There isn’t a whole lot of great things to say about this Buccaneers’ offense, but they are the AETY Model’s anticipated leader in terms of pass attempts with our without Fournette being active. At these low-price punts, we really need any boost of volume that we can find and the Bucs’ offense checks that box. In addition, Julio Jones will mainly lineup against the 49ers worst cover-corner in Demmodore Lenoir. Jones has a damn-near half-a-foot height advantage and is still is showing his playmaking prowess over the past couple weeks. Shannahan will likely try to scheme away the home-run ability to Mike Evans leaving Julio Jones 1-on-1 with Lenoir… good luck.

Outside of the limited man coverage we’ll see from the 49ers, Julio Jones gets a nice boost to his baseline target share against the 49ers’ Cover-3 zone. It’s very likely Julio Jones is a dud, but if you NEED a 0% owned cheapie, Julio Jones would be my guy.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, Gabe Davis, Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Elijah Moore

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,600 DK / $8,000 FD)
Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $6,800 FD) – Significant target shares with Tyler Huntley last year. I’m not really into this game at all, but this is a great price for Mark Andrews on a slate where everyone is paying down.
TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – Excellent pivot to get exposure to this projected shootout at low ownership. When the Lions’ show their Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense, Hockenson will be a priority target for Kirk Cousins.
Greg Dulcich ($3,400 DK / $5,400 FD) – On DraftKings, just take the freesquare of Greg Dulcich in a matchup where he should heavily utilized against the Chiefs’ league leading Cover-2 rate.

*P.S. – it’s hilarious to see Chig Okonkwo at 10% ownership projection… you’re a week late folks, but not if you’re a Win Daily member!

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Joe Mixon
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jared Goff
DJ Moore
Greg Dulcich

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 13

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

It felt like only yesterday that we kicked off the NFL season and already it’s Week 13. And what a week we are in store for in DFS, with five of the twelve games having totals of 47 to 52.5. As you will read in this article, there will be so many ways to victory that you may be forced to create more lineups than you normally would. Also, make sure you check out my take on the Cleveland/Houston matchup, don’t be so quick to run and use Deshaun Watson in his first game back in 700 days. Not to throw any shade on him, but by all means, go with your gut if you are feeling that move. This week just has a smorgasbord of pivots and angles to attack in DFS, so remember to refer back to our Discord and Projection Models when building your lineups. Let’s gooo!

Sunday Main Slate 12/4/22

Titans @ Eagles (-4.5) (O/U 44.5)

Titans

Tennessee will continue to ride the coattails of Derrick Henry and not make it a secret. But will he come up short again like last week? The Eagles have made some improvements in free agency (Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph) but continue to get gashed by opposing running backs (Aaron Jones and A J Dillon combined for over 35 DK PTS). Henry is always a reliable DFS running back but for this week let’s keep him out of our cash games and roll him in GPPs.

Eagles

With a record of 10-1, the Eagles appear destined for glory this season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a lock week in and week out, but in this matchup, we may see receiver A J Brown in a get-right revenge game against his former team. Facing a skank secondary that is 28th in DVOA to receivers, Brown is destined for the end zone against a Titans’ organization that refused to pay him and get traded away for a first-round pick in 2022.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown

GPP: D. Henry

Jets @ Vikings (-3) (O/U 45)

Jets

We may have seen the last of Zach Wilson this year after Mike White’s performance. I mentioned him in my breakdown last week that he would crush his salary (27.8 DK FPTS) and yet again he lines up in another great spot against Minnesota (28th in DVOA to QBs) in a dome. White is not the only Jet you may want to take this weekend. The running backs here are loaded with value (James Robinson, Ty Johnson, and Zonovan Knight) but are way too risky to decide on, so use any in a GPP. A much safer play would be pairing White with a share or two of his receivers. Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and a revenge game for tight end Tyler Conklin returning back to Minnesota make a sneaky stack pivoting off the late games on the slate.

Vikings

Believe it or not, the Jets have been pretty tough on defense as of late. They’ve only allowed three touchdown passes in their last 10 games, so Cousins may not be a QB in play this week. Justin Jefferson is matchup-proof, so feel free to keep him in cash games If you can afford him. The rest of the Vikes are priced way too high for me to take a shot on against this Jets’ defense, even Dalvin Cook may not pay off his hefty pricetag on a New York front that has not given up a rushing TD since Week 7.

Cash: J. Jefferson

GPP: M. White, G. Wilson, E. Moore, T. Conklin

Commanders @ Giants (+2.5) (O/U 40)

Commanders

If you’re looking for a cheap play at running back, look no further. The rookie Brian Robinson may be in line for an increased workload at a discount If Antonio Gibson sits this one out. The New York Giants have allowed 150 yards with five total touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last two games. Robinson is a lock for cash if this situation plays out for Sunday.

Giants

The window is beginning to close for the Giants to make the playoffs, so it’s now or never. But with news breaking about Saquan Barkley possibly getting a lighter workload, New York will need to rely more on the passing game in order to win at home. The Commanders have cleaned it up a bit on defense, only allowing two passing touchdowns in their last three games. Regardless, the Giants’ will need to pass to win, and their skeleton crew of receivers is way too cheap. Darius Slayton and Richie James are set to have a big day as long as they can get healthy.

Cash: B. Robinson (Gibson out)

GPP: D. Slayton, R. James (if they can roll out)

Broncos @ Ravens (-8.5) (O/U 39.5)

Broncos

Free Courtland Sutton! He’s put up double-digit fantasy points at receiver in his last three games and the only game in town for DFS in Denver. The Ravens are a force at stopping the run, so Lat Murray will be a no go for me this week, not that he has been a stud averaging three yards per carry. Denver has been the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year as Russell Wilson and the coaching staff have set the franchise back a decade. It’s Sutton for GPP, no one is safe for cash in Bronco Country.

Ravens

Well, Lamar has not panned out from what we expected for this season either. If it wasn’t for his rushing upside, he’d be right up there cooking with Russ. But Gus Edwards seems to be back to 100% and against the tough Denver defense I’d rather pay down for Gus to fall in the endzone than Jackson’s low pass volume and high price tag. Denver has also been a cheat code for opposing defenses, pay up if you can for the Ravens’ DST in this low total contest.

Cash: Ravens DST

GPP: C. Sutton, L. Jackson, G. Edwards

Browns @ Texans (+7) (O/U 47.5)

Browns

Here it is, the game we’ve all been waiting for. Will Watson go off on his former team or will he show signs of rust, time will tell. The one player who is money in the bank is Nick Chubb, playing behind one of the best O-lines in football. Add that nugget up with one of the worst run defenses in the league and you have the formula to pay up here at running back. The only thing that bothers me is if Watson will hog the spotlight in this game and look to throw or run one into the endzone himself at the goal line. One thing for sure is Texan quarterback Kyle Allen was a turnover machine last week with two picks and two fumbles leading to scores for Miami. If you have confidence in the Browns D, pay up for them.

Texans

Some big late news broke on Friday that Texan receiver Brandin Cooks will not play on Sunday, elevating Nico Collins to the number one passer option for Houston and a no-brainer on DraftKings ($4,200). However, don’t forget about the rookie Dameon Pierce. He’s underwhelmed for the last two games, but he has the sixth-highest snap-share among running backs facing the Browns’ 30th-ranked run defense. I’m fine with using both in cash games.

Cash: N. Collins, N. Chubb, D. Pierce, Browns DST

GPP: D. Watson

Jaguars @ Lions (-1) (O/U 51)

Jaguars

T Law is coming off a career-best performance last week posting 321 passing yards with three touchdowns against Baltimore. It may be a double-down week to take Lawrence for a second week straight as he’ll be indoors to face the Lions. In what may look to be a track meet in Detroit, Christian Kirk may benefit more in the receiving department if he lines up in the slot opposite Joe Harris, who’s spilled out 15 receptions for 196 yards in his last two games.

Lions

At home, the Lions are at their best and will look the case against a soft Jaguar defense that has allowed 54 points in their last two games. We’ll see more of the usual from Goff to Amon Ra, with a sprinkle of Jamaal Williams at the goal line. Fellow receivers other than ASRB are priced way down to $4K and lower, so a nice GPP stack might be found in this game using D J Chark and Kalif Raymond

Cash: T. Lawrence, C. Kirk, A. St. Brown

GPP: J. Goff, J. Williams, K. Raymond, D. Chark

Packers @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 44.5)

Packers

Green Bay is on the outside looking into the playoffs for the season, so even in a great matchup for Aaron Rodgers, I would tread lightly. He’s pretty banged up with a thumb and now a rib injury, any shot taken during the game may force him to the sideline. So for me, it’s an Aaron Jones kind of day, especially at his DraftKings salary ($6,900). Even if Rodgers does get pulled, wideouts Christian Watson and Allen Lazard should still feast on the Bears’ bush league of defense if Jordan Love were to take over. Other than Jones, keep everybody else in tournaments.

Bears

Chicago has given their superstar athlete at quarterback the green light for Sunday, but how effective will he be? Justin Fields injured his non-throwing shoulder in Week 11, but it’s not his passing that he is known for. one bad hit after a scramble may also take him out of the game. His ceiling is through a roof but keep him in your tournament this weekend, who may see very low ownership on this slate.

Cash: A. Jones

GPP: A. Rodgers, J. Fields, A. Lazard, C. Watson

Steelers @ Falcons (-1) (O/U 42.5)

Steelers

The first quarterback taken in last year’s draft may have his best game this season on the road in Atlanta. Kenny Pickett can easily smash his salary four times its value playing indoors, using a little of his legs, and letting loose on the Falcon secondary that has been exploited all season. Pairing Pickett with Pickens and Friermuth makes a ton of sense here, but Diontae Johnson may be riskier because of his inability to build any chemistry with the rookie QB. The questionable tags have been all over the Steeler running backs, best to keep an eye on reports for tonight through tomorrow morning for a Najee Harris/Jalen Warren possible lone backfield.

Falcons

I just can’t put anybody in Atlanta in my lineups this week because of this Pittsburgh defense led by TJ Watt. Now that Kyle Pitts landed on IR, opposing defenses will continue to gravitate toward the rookie Drake London. I mean if I were to throw a dart here, it would be at Zaccheaus. Olamide ate off London’s plate last week while catching five of eight passes for 91 yards.

Cash: K. Pickett, G. Pickens, N. Harris/J. Warren (if one sits out)

GPP: P. Friermuth, O. Zaccheaus

Dolphins @ Niners (-4) (O/U 46.5)

Dolphins

Well, we all should know Miami’s blueprint by now in Week 13, if you’re just tuning in now it’s a three-headed monster with Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle. Besides Tyreek Hill, many Dolphins for this week may not be usable in DFS facing a tough San Fran defense on the road. So will it be a Jeff Wilson/Raheem Mostert revenge game? I wouldn’t bet on that either against the Niners’ front line. Ever hear of a guy by the name of Trent Sherfield? He’s basically on the field all the time alongside Tyreek and Waddle with over a 60% snap rate and could be worth a punt based on his price tag on DraftKings ($3,300). Thanks to Stix and the model for this gem, he may not be as sexy as the last Christian Watson call, but definitely makes sense against a Niner defense that will focus mainly on Waddle and Hill.

Niners

The Dolphins have also been decent at stopping the run (10th in DVOA) which could force Garoppolo to throw it more than he likes to. Miami’s cornerbacks and safeties have allowed over 60 receptions with five touchdowns over their last three games. Deebo may not be able to go Sunday so pay attention to injury reports, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will be a lock if he is ruled out.

Cash: B. Aiyuk, G. Kittle (if Deebo is ruled out even better), T. Hill

GPP: T. Sherfield, J Garoppolo

Seahawks @ Rams (+7) (O/U 41)

Seahawks

Seattle may get the same scenario game as Kansas City when they played LA…a wet noodle of an offense. Geno Smith and the Seahawks may not have any type of motivation to light up the scoreboard this weekend. We should see a lot of Kenneth Walker chewing up the clock and that Seattle defense causing some turnovers and three-and-outs.

Rams

The defending champs have waived the white flag to the NFL, pulling every big-name player and placing them on IR, most recently QB Matt Stafford. The Rams appear to want to get an idea of who else they have on their roster by giving them some playing time. Rookie running back Kyren Williams could be busy for the end of the regular season, and Seattle’s 153 rushing yards allowed per game has breakout written all over this game. Kyren is a sleeper and a smooth play as your RB2 in your GPP.

Cash: Seattle DST, K. Walker

GPP: K. Williams

Chiefs @ Bengals (+1.5) (O/U 52.5)

Chiefs

Let’s get ready to rumble, the Main Event will be at 4:25 EST in Ohio, when Kansas City looks to even the score from last year’s loss to the Bengals. Mahomes and Kelce all day, in 11 games they’ve connected on 73 receptions with 12 touchdowns, and Mahomes has thrown for 29…eh not bad. A smart but chalky stack this weekend, we need to get a little different here. Pacheco had a solid game against LA last week, finding the endzone for a cool 15 DK points, and rushing for 70 yards. Currently, he leads the backfield in snap percentage (51%), which may lead to another trip to the endzone in Cinci.

Bengals

The Chiefs are 24th in DVOA to quarterbacks, so they will let you throw on them. Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and maybe Ja’Marr Chase ( if he can suit up) would be in a pass-funnel offense at home, locking them in our lineups with the highest game total of the slate. Even running backs Joe Mixon (if he clears protocols) and Samaje Perine can feast off this zone defense which allows plenty of the dink-and-dunk.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, J. Burrow, T. Higgins, J. Mixon/S. Perine

GPP: I. Pacheco, J. Chase (if he plays)

Chargers @ Raiders (-1) (O/U 50.5)

Chargers

Justin Herbert crushed Arizona last week, and he’ll do it again to Vegas. The Raiders are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defending receivers and sending pressure to the quarterback. No Mike Williams again maybe? No problem, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and the almighty running back Austin Ekeler are enough firepower to take out a small army. All playable in DFS this weekend, I especially like Herbert for cash.

Raiders

As bad as Vegas’ defense is, we love them for fantasy, forcing the offense to play from behind. Derek Carr may have to throw it another 36 times this week in order to stay in the game. Davante Adams as their main pass catcher all season (71 REC/10 TD), will also be busy. But if running back Josh Jacobs has his way again in this game (229 RSH/74 REC/2 TDs), Herbert may not have as much time on the field. LA’s defense against the run is a dismal 29th in DVOA, so if Jacobs can convince the doctors he can play, he’s a lock once again.

Cash: J. Herbert, J. Jacobs (if he plays), D. Adams, A. Ekeler, K. Allen

GPP: D. Carr

Cash Core

J. Herbert,AJ Brown, Nico Collins, Josh Jacobs, T. Kelce

GPP Core

K. Pickett, N. Chubb, P. Friermuth, C. Kirk, T. Sherfield

Stacks

J. Herbert/K. Allen/J. Palmer/A. Ekeler, J. Burrow/J. Chase (if he plays)/T. Higgins, P. Mahomes/T. Kelce/I. Pacheco, T. Lawrence/C. Kirk/ Z. Jones, D. Carr/D. Adams/J. Jacobs(if he plays)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 13. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 13: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

brgrewe@gmail.com 2 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back to the Week 13 NFL DFS cash game and GPP breakdown. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

This slate is absolutely loaded with studs and multiple games with game totals over 50 points (game-stacks are certainly encouraged by me). I’ll probably keep out some star players just for the sake of showing you who I’m more focused on investing in, but this article is not meant to identify obvious studs you know are fantastic plays. I may mention them, but guys like Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey are always in play and you don’t need me to tell you they’re likely to have a nice fantasy output.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – The clear top-option in terms of both expected fantasy output and salary on both NFL DFS outlets. This game is going to be a fantastic watch and running out a sub-10% Mahomes is always something I would advise. He’s in play for both cash and GPP lineups.

Stack Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore (punt viable)
Run-Back Options: Ja’Maar Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins
Justin Herbert ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD) – Herbert is probably my favorite QB on this slate, and by a decent margin. I always love rolling with Justin Herbert as this Chargers’ offense almost refuses to run the football. The Chargers and the Chiefs are the only offenses on this slate that average over 40 pass attempts per game. Pair that with the Las Vegas Raiders grading dead-last in pass defense DVOA… yea. Cash game and GPP viable at sub-5% ownership? Sign me up.

*Keep an eye on their offensive line, it’s quite possible they’re down two linemen… not great if so.

Stack Options: Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, Gerald Everett
Run-Back Options: Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Foster Moreau
Trevor Lawrence ($5,900 DK / $7,500 FD) – On DraftKings, Trevor Lawrence is going to be over 15% owned which makes him a perfect cash game quarterback against the Lions’ defense in a 51-point game total. I usually LOVE to play Trevor Lawrence in GPP lineups, but only when he’s 1-2% owned. The Lions blitz a lot and have continuously improved their pressure-rate to opposing quarterbacks and that is where Lawrence still struggles. This Detroit defense is not nearly as bad as the general public thinks it is, and Trevor Lawrence does not warrant 15% or higher ownership at any price. I’ll be fading in GPP but giving him a serious look for my cash game quarterback.

Stack Options: Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones (punt viable), Evan Engram (punt viable)
Run-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark
Kenny Pickett ($5,200 DK / $6,700 FD) – My second favorite QB on this slate (in terms of overall value and ownership) is Mr. Pickett, but mainly on DraftKings. At $5,200, I absolutely love what my lineups look like when I start with Kenny Pickett as a value “punt” quarterback. Having said that, I truly don’t look at Kenny Pickett as a punt quarterback. Pickett is quietly averaging over 30 rushing yards per game (against rather quality defenses) over the past four games and that alone is enough for me to sign off for his NFL DFS cash game floor.

On the GPP side of things, he’s certainly risky as hell on this slate that is loaded with high-upside, high-total game quarterbacks, but if Pickett and the Steelers can be a bit more efficient in the red-zone and we get a passing touchdown or two, Pickett may be in line for a ceiling game here in the dome against the Falcons and their 29th ranked pass defense (DVOA).

Stack Options: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Diontae Johnson
Run-Back Options: Drake London (I wouldn’t make it a priority to have a run-back if I’m playing Pickett. Pickett is solely a salary relief play to give us more quality exposure to those higher total games)

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Running Backs:

Nick Chubb ($8,000 DK / $9,600 FD) – The best offensive line in the NFL against the worst run defense in the NFL. At his projected ownership of 5% on both sites, Chubb is better off as a GPP play with the expectation that this is absolutely a slate-breaking opportunity if you trust the DeShaun Watson debut.
Josh Jacobs ($7,900 DK / $9,500 FD) – Jacobs pretty much ruined my GPP upside last weekend with his late game heroics (I did not play him) despite battling a calf injury all week. He’s still apparently battling that calf injury, but if he’s ruled good to go, this is the best matchup Jacobs has had in quite some time. It’ll be hard to fade the hottest hand at the running back position. He’s a quality option in all formats.
Joe Mixon ($7,100 DK / $8,500 FD) – Assuming he clears the concussion protocol, Joe Mixon is likely a core-play for me in all formats of NFL DFS in Week 13. This Chiefs @ Bengals game has the highest game total on the slate and I want to ensure I get exposure to key contributors in that game. The Chiefs’ run defense is not nearly as bad as it has been in years past, but they absolutely bleed production to pass-catching running backs which is where Mixon has excelled this season. He’s one of the few “two and a half down” running backs left in the NFL. If he’s ruled out, Samaje Perine is a lock-button.
Aaron Jones ($6,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – Finally a sub-$7K price-tag in the best matchup he’s had in some time. AJ Dillon is slightly banged up with a quad injury and this is the nut-matchup against the Bears for Aaron Jones’ expected dual-threat utilization. He’s likely best left as a GPP play at sub-10% ownership.
Dameon Pierce ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – He’s been a complete bummer lately, but in NFL DFS cash games, he’s a chalky value in a great matchup against a bottom-three run defense. I don’t expect a whole lot, but if you need the savings, just take the ownership free-square in your cash games and you can consider him as a risky value in GPP lineups, but the matchup upside is there.
Isiah Pacheco ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – I’m prioritizing getting key pieces to these higher total games with Kansas City @ Cincinnati being at the top of that list. Pachecho is nowhere near cash viable, but in tournaments, the multiple touchdown upside is what I’ll be shooting for when rostering Pachecho. With all of the ownership in that high $5K range going to Dameon Pierce, Pachecho makes for an excellent tournament pivot in a fantastic fantasy environment. If he can get a reception or two, that’s just icing on the cake.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Gus Edwards, Kyren Williams, Zonovan Knight (going to likely be a committee)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers:

Davante Adams ($8,700 DK / $8,600 FD) – Ridiculously cheap on FanDuel this week but an elite play on all formats against the Chargers secondary who simply cannot contain Davante Adams. At his price, there are certainly concerns of heavy double-coverage limiting his upside (as Adams went for 10 receptions and over 140 yards in their previous matchup), but I’ll roll out Davante Adams with confidence as he’s received 10 more targets over the past four games than any other pass catcher in the NFL.

AJ Brown ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD) – I’m not a revenge game narrative guy so I’ll spare you reading the same statement about Brown’s time with the Titans that you’ll read literally everywhere. That means absolutely nothing to me. What matters to me is that this is a pass-funnel defense that runs a ton of Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense… that is where AJ Brown absolutely smashes. This is one of the best matchups on paper for any wide receiver in the NFL this week. I could not care less about NFL DFS writers talking about revenge, lol.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100 DK / $8,000 FD) – St. Brown will likely be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate and I have no issues with that against Jacksonville here. Roll him out in all formats with confidence.

Keenan Allen ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD) – Great price for a WR1 and a key exposure piece to what should be an absolute slugfest in Las Vegas. The Raiders’ have arguably the worst secondary in football. Josh Palmer is also a fine play at a cheaper price-tag.

Christian Kirk ($6,300 DK / $7,500 FD) – Everyone will be chasing the value in Zay Jones and I’ll be going directly to Christian Kirk in this matchup against the Lions’ slot cornerback, Will Harris. The Lions blitz a ton and that should force Lawrence into getting the ball out of his hands early to his shorter ADOT pass-catchers, like Kirk, or this game will turn in favor of Detroit quickly.

Garrett Wilson ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – The Vikings’ secondary is in shambles and they are a pass-funnel defense. Wilson is going to be a top-three wide receiver in terms of ownership and like we stated last week, that is likely something we likely cannot fade in NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Nico Collins ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – Your cash game “free-square” value wide receiver now that Brandin Cooks is out. I don’t love it, but I get it.

Trent Sherfield ($3,300 DK / $5,100 FD) – HERE IT IS… the Discord Diamond. I’m 99.9% sure I’ve never written his name in my life, but here we are.

Disclaimer: he has 0% of the upside that Christian Watson had when I made that call of the year a few weeks back, but Trent Sherfield offers us a cheap piece of another higher total game in San Francisco (for one of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL).

As mentioned in the Kenny Pickett write-up, I need some key value in my main lineup and that lineup indeed calls for a player in the low $3,000 range (DraftKings). When really looking at prospective value players and their matchups, I focused on the following “value punts”…

– DJ Chark
– Chase Claypool
– Olamide Zaccheaus (bring-back with my Pickett and Steeler pass-catcher stack, but we don’t want to invest in Atlanta’s passing offense)
– Skyy Moore (he was very close to taking Sherfield’s spot in this write-up… I do like him, but don’t love the snap counts and randomness of the Chiefs’ offense. It seems like when he does run routes, he gets targeted at a significant clip. Having said that, Juju is finally back at 100% health. I don’t trust Skyy Moore).
– Trent Sherfield

Trent Sherfield is the only one on that list who runs well over 25 routes per game. In addition, Sherfield’s expected target share takes a significant jump over his baseline when facing Cover-4 and Cover-3 zone coverage. Guess what coverages the 49ers run the most? Yea, Cover-4 and Cover-3 zone. It’s disgusting, but if the rest of your lineup is loaded with upper-tier studs, I am quite confident that this is a plus-matchup for Trent Sherfield against the 49ers defense that grades 31st in pass defense DVOA to their opposition’s tertiary pass-catchers. If he can find a way to sneak into the end-zone (doubtful), we may have a massive week on our hands with a legit 0% owned, Trent Sherfield. Pray for us!

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Ja’Maar Chase, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,900 DK / $8,400 FD)
Pat Freiermuth ($4,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings and likely my play for NFL DFS cash games if I cannot afford the obvious Travis Kelce. Atlanta will play a ton of Cover-3 zone coverage and that’s where Freiermuth should have a field day.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Foster Moreau, Chig Okonkwo (GPP punt only)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams:

Cleveland Browns
New York Giants
New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers
Denver Broncos
Houston Texans

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Amon-Ra St. Brown
Josh Jacobs
Nico Collins
Pat Freiermuth
Samaje Perine

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 12: StixPicks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Happy Thanksgiving weekend to all! It was awesome to see all the winning screenshots come in on Thursday… now if only the Hunter Henry second touchdown got to stand! Let’s move on to the Week 12 NFL DFS slate where it will be a rather condensed player pool for me (and so will the writeup unfortunately as I’m about to go on a 5-hour roadtrip to get back home in time for the Sunday livestream).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Incredibly affordable on FanDuel and in an excellent spot against the 26th ranked defense in terms of DVOA. With offensive tackle, Ronnie Stanley out for this game, it’s probably best to leave Lamar Jackson to NFL DFS GPP lineups but you could do worse in cash if you want to pay up.
Justin Herbert ($7,000 DK / $7,900 FD) – My overall favorite quarterback play on the slate by a wide-margin. We pick on the Arizona defense damn near every week and we won’t stop here now that Keenan Allen is back and the only quality corner for Arizona, Byron Murphy, is OUT. Expect a ton of back-and-forth passing attacks for both offenses as Kyler Murray returns for the Cardinals. Justin Herbert is a core-play for me in cash game and GPP formats.
Geno Smith ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – On DraftKings, Geno Smith will likely garner the highest ownership on the slate. I’m fine with him as a cheaper option in cash games, but with all the value at the running-back position, you probably won’t need the salary relief at quarterback. If the weather report looks better in Seattle tomorrow morning, I’d have more interest here.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Derek Carr

NFL DFS Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD) – Decent price for a top-tier dual-threat option in a fantastic game environment.
Derrick Henry ($8,300 DK / $9,500 FD) – Derrick Henry under 10% owned, at home. There is absolutely nothing about this Cincinnati defense that should scare you away from Derrick Henry. If you can afford him, he’s a high-upside, slate-breaking option.
Kenneth Walker III ($6,900 DK / $8,400 FD) – I prefer the price on DraftKings here for Walker, but Las Vegas Raiders defense is dead last in overall defense DVOA. They are an absolute mess and this should lead to plenty of red-zone opportunities for Kenneth Walker.
James Conner ($6,600 DK / $7,000 FD) – A cheaper and less productive version of Austin Ekeler, but the dual-threat and red-zone ability for James Conner is hard to ignore in a game that I want to get as much exposure to as I can. The Chargers’ run defense grades 30th in DVOA.

The Value Running Backs

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – A little pricey on FanDuel but an absolute lock on DraftKings against this Houston run defense. We love double-digit, home-favorite running backs.
Antonio Gibson ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Dirt cheap and likely sub-10% owned on all NFL DFS formats. Gibson is the best option in this Washington backfield and the pass-catching floor makes me very interested in Gibson against this Falcons’ 28th ranked defense (DVOA).
Rachaad White ($5,100 DK / $6,400 FD) – Similar to Jeff Wilson Jr., I’ll likely be locking in Rachaad White in all formats now that Leonard Fournette is ruled out and they have a matchup against the 32nd ranked run defense in the NFL (DVOA).

*Note: I’m out on a 30% owned Samaje Perine. Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans will both be active and have a role the public doesn’t seem to respect. I understand if you want to chase the points from last week, but I don’t play running backs against the Titans (especially when I don’t believe they have a 60% or higher snap-share coming).

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $9,000 FD) – My clear top-option at the wide receiver position this week. Simple as that.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,700 DK / $8,400 FD) – D-Hop continues to get a monster target share and Arizona will be without Rondale Moore and likely Greg Dortch. With or without Marquise Brown, Hopkins is going to have a very active day in the Arizona passing game like he always does against the Chargers wasteland of a secondary.
Tee Higgins ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings against a pass funnel defense in the Tennessee Titans and no Ja’Maar Chase.
DK Metcalf ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – The AETY Model absolutely loves this spot for DK Metcalf going up against the Raiders. This defense is a disaster and the AETY Model’s coverage scheme grades seem to believe this is a potential blow-up spot for DK Metcalf. Keep an eye on the forecast, but if it’s relatively clean we’re rolling out Metcalf with the utmost confidence.
Keenan Allen ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD) & Josh Palmer ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – The easy two stack options for Justin Herbert. Both of their prices are extremely too low for the floors and upside they possess in this matchup.
Treylon Burks ($4,200 DK / $5,900 FD) – A cheap WR1 in a nice matchup is something we’re always interested in for our NFL DFS lineups. The Bengals will run a lot of Cover-1 and Cover-3 defense and that is a matchup advantage for Treylon Burks.

Honorable Mention: Chris Olave, Christian Kirk, Tyler Boyd, Terry McLaurin, Drake London, Mack Hollins

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – Now that Andrews is back to 100% health, it’s all systems go this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars who grade dead last in DVOA against opposing tight-ends. Jacksonville will run a ton of Cover-2 zone defense with some Cover-1 and Cover-3 mixed in… all of which Mark Andrews exceeds his baseline numbers against (which are sexy to begin with). No need to get cute at the tight-end position when there is so much value at the running back position.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, Foster Moreau, Hayden Hurst (love this spot for him without Ja’Maar Chase), Trey McBride (absolute punt, but viable in a LAC/AZ game stack)

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Denver Broncos
New York Jets
Carolina Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs
Cleveland Browns

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Justin Herbert
Jeff Wilson Jr.
Rachaad White
DeAndre Hopkins
Mark Andrews

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 12

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Well, I hope everybody enjoyed their holiday, welcome back to the grind! Thanksgiving has come and gone with a mini three-game slate that entertained us all over dinner amongst family and friends. Now that we’ve digested all that grub, it’s time to break down this Week 12 of NFL action. There are so many paths to cash this slate and I’m happy to bring them to you. As always, stay up to speed on our community Discord and use our projection model to fall back on players that you are unsure of. Now without further delay let’s get right into this 11-game Main Slate, Week 12 breakdown, it’s on!

Sunday Main Slate 11/27/22

Texans @ Dolphins (-13.5) (O/U 46.5)

Texans

Houston will be one of a few teams this week featuring a new quarterback in Week 12, starting Kyle Allen over Davis Mills. Allen is nothing spectacular, in 21 career starts in Carolina and Washington he’s thrown for 24 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, running in a few scores himself on the ground. The price is right for a GPP but by all means keep him out of cash games, even with his Miami 22nd DVOA to QB matchup. The only safe piece in Houston is Dameon Pierce, but I also like the Nico Collins price tag ($4,100 on DraftKings). The Texan double-digit spread sends the message that they will be playing from behind for most of the game, forcing Nico into lineups this weekend.

Dolphins

The big three in Miami of Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle is a shoo-in this week to ball out against the 1-8-1 Texans, but will they be sitting out in the second half because of them being up by three touchdowns? Tua is probably the safest of the three since we know he will be in command of the scoring. There will be some chalk in this game though since news broke recently of running back Raheem Mostert being listed as doubtful to play. Fellow back Jeff Wilson Jr. will inherit the lion’s share of carries against the worst-ranked run defense in the league.

Cash: T. Tagovailoa, J. Wilson Jr.

GPP: K. Allen, N. Collins

Ravens @ Jaguars (+4) (O/U 43.5)

Ravens

It looks like Gus Edwards will finally return to the field after logging two full practices this week, giving Baltimore much-needed depth at running back. He’s a sneaky, under-the-radar play at RB who may see all the goal-line work in Jacksonville. Lamar Jackson and tight end Mark Andrews returning off a bye week are also in play, but much safer for cash games.

Jaguars

The revamped Raven defense with the addition of Roquan Smith held Carolina to only three points in Week 10, so I’m weary of starting too many players in Jacksonville. But the AETY Model does like tight end Evan Engram, so consider him as a decent-size punt (3.3X value) for only $3,200 on DraftKings.

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: G. Edwards, E. Engram, Ravens DST

Bears @ Jets (-4.5) (O/U 39.5)

Bears

The Bears enter the tri-state area with a questionable tag for quarterback Justin Fields, who suffered a shoulder injury last week. If he sits out, It will be Trevor Siemian season facing a tough Jets defense that already has 32 sacks on the year… I’ll pass on both this week. Another heavy dose of David Montgomery may be in store for Chicago’s game plan, but I would only recommend him in tournaments this week because of the matchup.

Jets

Zach Wilson is in timeout for Week 12 after an embarrassing loss to New England, handing Mike White the keys to the Jets’ offense. In four games, and three starts last season, White threw for 953 yards, five touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Four of those picks were against a top-ranked Buffalo defense in 2021, which led him back to the bench and I don’t put that against him. White will sling it and against this Bears’ beatable secondary he could easily pay off his very low salary ($4,900 on DraftKings). Keep him in tournaments, but the Jets’ D looks great against Siemian (if he starts) on the road.

Cash: Jets DST (Siemian plays)

GPP: M. White, D. Montgomery

Falcons @ Commanders (-4) (O/U 42)

Falcons

30% of the Atlanta target share went up for grabs when tight end Kyle Pitts landed on IR this week, putting Drake London in absolute control of the Falcon receiving core. The rookie first-round pick is in a smash spot as not only the featured receiver in Atlanta but a matchup with Kendall Fuller/Ben St.-Juste, who has been toasted all season. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, who may also be a sleeper at his position, will be looking for jersey number 5 (London) all afternoon.

Commanders

The same scenario for the Commanders can be said for Atlanta, as they face a bottom three DVOA pass defense in the league. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has only had eyes for wideout Terry McLaurin in his return as a starter, targeting him 43 times in just five games. T-MC continues to be underpriced on DraftKings ($5,800) and should be considered a lock at receiver, but keep his QB Heinicke in tournaments.

*** Curtis Samuel and Johan Dotson can also get some love too in this contest

Cash: D. London, T. McLaurin

GPP: M. Mariota, T. Heinicke, C. Samuel, J. Dotson

Bengals @ Titans (+1.5) (O/U 42.5)

Bengals

Cincinnati will be without stud running back Joe Mixon due to concussion protocols, so is it Samaje Perine season again? Not so fast. He did score three touchdowns last week, but he’ll be splitting carries with Chris Evans against the number two rushing defense…buyer beware. It will be a Joe Burrow game for sure, facing a secondary ranked 30th in the NFL. If he gets his boy Ja’Marr Chase back, the field will be spread out, even more, making another Bengals’ stack enticing again this week. Higgins, Boyd, and tight end Hurst are all viable plays here too.

Titans

The Titans and Derrick Henry will be out for revenge after getting the boot from the Bengals in the 2021 AFC Wild Card game. Tennessee will as usual utilize their franchise battering ram at running back to keep Burrow off the field and chew time off the clock. If in fact, Tannehill does decide to air it out, rookie Treylon Burks has seen 14 targets in his last two games, cashing in for 10 of them. For only $4,200 on DraftKings, he makes a nice discount on a run-back play in a GPP stack of this game.

Cash: J. Burrow, D. Henry, T. Higgins (if Chase sits out)

GPP: J. Chase, T. Boyd, H. Hurst, T. Burks

Broncos @ Panthers (+2) (O/U 36)

Broncos

The Broncos finally waived running back Melvin Gordon leaving Latavius Murray as the only game in town at the position. He’s not sexy but will get a ton of volume and all the goal line work, but making him touchdown reliant averaging only three yards per carry this year. With all the chalk at running back this weekend, Murray may float under the radar against a Panther 26th DVOA to opposing running backs. Watch the weather in Carolina too, it could get uglier not just because Sam Darnold is starting at quarterback, but they may see some rain. Take that Bronco defense if you can.

Panthers

The Panthers are one piece away from being a solid team in the league, and without a quarterback, you can see how bad it has been. Sam Darnold will be getting the call to start, and Carolina is drawing at straws, desperately seeking an answer to this losing season. Possible rain, Surtain, and Darnold are telling us to stay clear this weekend with any Panthers.

Cash: Bronco DST

GPP: L. Murray

Bucs @ Browns (+3.5) (O/U 43)

Bucs

Another stadium that may be affected by wind and rain in Cleveland could put a damper on a Bucs offense that may be looking to throw a lot this weekend. Starting running back Leonard Fournette is listed as doubtful, giving a major opportunity to rookie Rachaad White to lead the backfield against the second-worst rushing defense. But when you’re playing with Brady, he’ll get you the ball rain, sleet, or shine. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are always safe when healthy for DFS.

Browns

Jacoby Brissett hammered the Bills’ defense for 29 fantasy points last week, maybe we should ride the hot hand against the Bucs? Sure why not? He’s at home, his receivers are healthy, and he has one of the best running backs in football Nick Chubb. Cleveland’s defense has been a train wreck recently, Brissett will again be playing from behind and forcing his arm to air it out in what could be his last game this year. (Watson returns in Week 13). Keep Cleveland in your tournaments.

Cash: R. White, C. Godwin, M. Evans

GPP: J. Brissett, D. Njoku, N. Chubb, A. Cooper, D. Peoples-Jones

Raiders @ Seahawks (-3.5) (O/U 47.5)

Raiders

Vegas having one of the worst secondaries in the league forces Derek Carr and Davonte Adams to play catch all afternoon. Now with running back Josh Jacobs popping up on the injury report with a calf, Davonte may have even more of a role carved out for him in the offense. Seattle’s been no stranger to giving up big plays either, ranking 21st in DVOA to quarterbacks. Carr fed Adams 13 targets, catching 7 for 141 yards and two touchdowns in Denver, expect more of the same in Seattle. Adams for cash games, and Carr for GPPs.

Seahawks

The Raiders’ young and inexperienced secondary has been the league’s punching bag all season. What an opponent to have come off a bye week for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. At a measly $6,000 on DraftKings, Smith can hit value by halftime with receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. And let’s not forget about the rookie phenom Kenneth Walker III, who may be finishing off plenty of drives into the endzone this weekend. The volume and game flow will favor Walker and the Seahawks if they end up with a sizeable lead in the second half.

Cash: G. Smith, D. Adams, D. Metcalf, K. Walker, T. Lockett

GPP: D. Carr

Chargers @ Cardinals (+4.5) (O/U 47.5)

Chargers

This matchup for Justin Herbert has a breakout written all over it against Arizona. One game removed from a lingering hamstring, Herbert’s number one Keenan Allen will be running circles around Marco Wilson and the Cardinal secondary, which will be without their top corner Byron Murphy Jr. Fellow Chargers’ wideout Mike Williams is set to miss another game, enter Josh Palmer. The second-year receiver could also see a big afternoon, like last week’s 8-106-2 stat line. There’s always Austin Ekeler in play, we can’t overlook LA’s top running back when he’s healthy, he’s a lock in all cash games.

Cardinals

Arizona is beat up on defense as we just spoke on, but they are getting back quarterback Kyler Murray. This is great news for DeAndre Hopkins, who gets peppered on a weekly basis by Murray. But consider James Connor this week at running back away from the chalk. He owns the backfield against one of the worst run defenses (30th in DVOA) in the league, if the game does get into a shoot-out, Connor may be a sneaky player at running back. Then there’s also Trey McBride taking over for Zach Ertz at tight end. The rookie saw a near 80% snap share in his debut as a starter, so he’s well worth a thought as a punt this weekend at tight end.

Cash: J. Herbert, K. Allen, D. Hopkins, A. Ekeler

GPP: J. Connor, J. Palmer, K. Murray, T. McBride

Saints @ Niners (-9.5) (O/U 43)

Saints

New Orleans is in limbo as far as their injury report on the defensive side of the ball, as this could determine a lot of what kind of action may be on the field come Sunday afternoon. On offense, it’s always Chris Olave at receiver, who is a magnet for the football in a Saints’ uniform. At running back, Alvin Kamara is a hard fade against the second-best run defense of San Fransisco. It’s Olave or bust in New Orleans, who’s still fairly priced on DraftKings ($6,600). Although tight end Juwan Johnson is quietly making some noise as a red zone threat, with three touchdowns in his last three games, take a shot on him in a tournament.

Niners

Along with the news we are still waiting for in New Orleans, receiver Deebo Samuel also appeared on the injury report yesterday. So teammates Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will get a huge uptick in looks from Jimmy Garoppolo if he can’t suit up. Running back Christian McCaffrey is an auto start if you can pay up, as well as the top-five defense of the Niners. You’ll need a piece of San Fran in your lineup if Marshon Lattimore and Cam Jordan are in street clothes this Sunday.

Cash: C. McCaffrey, B. Aiyuk/G. Kittle (if Deebo sits out) C. Olave

GPP: J. Garoppolo, Niner DST, J. Johnson

Rams @ Chiefs (-14.5) (O/U 44)

Rams

When you thought it could not get any worse for the defending champs, out goes Matt Stafford with another concussion. Coach Sean McVay will roll the dice with third-stringer Bryce Perkins at quarterback, who may give the Rams a boost with the use of his legs under center. Young and inexperienced QBs tend to favor their safety valve at running back and tight end, so Bryce may lean on Kyren Williams and Tyler Higbee could be busy this weekend. Tournaments only guys, keep it safe.

Chiefs

Blood will be in the water at Arrowhead Stadium, as the Chiefs’ defense will put pressure on a rookie quarterback with one of the worst O-lines in the league. By now there’s no need to mention Mahomes and Kelce as they are always safe for cash, but given the game flow, they may be sitting out in the second half. My move would be to aim low for savings in the KC high-powered offense as a huge favorite. Isiah Pacheco and Skyy Moore could see some extra playing time if Kansas City is up big.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, Chiefs DST

GPP: B. Perkins, T. Higbee, K. Williams, I. Pacheco, S. Moore

Cash Core

J. Herbert, K. Allen, DK Metcalf, R. White, T. Kelce

GPP Core

G. Smith, J. Palmer, J. Connor, S. Moore, E. Engram

Stacks

J. Herbert/K. Allen/J. Palmer/A. Ekeler, J. Burrow/J. Chase (if he plays)/T. Higgins, G. Smith/ DK Metcalf/ T. Lockett/K. Walker III

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 12. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 12: StixPicks Thanksgiving Day Edition

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

Happy Thanksgiving to all! On behalf of Win Daily, I just want to thank you all for the support, week-in and week-out. Let’s get right to it and enjoy a three game, Thanksgiving NFL DFS slate! As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for the NFL DFS DraftKings and FanDuel Thanksgiving Day Main Slate (strictly tournament plays for this article). Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,000 DK / $9,500 FD) – Clearly the top quarterback on the slate by a wide-margin. The Bills have a 32-point implied team total… the next closest team is the Cowboys with a 27-point implied team total. The Lions defense is a mess and will be without Jeff Okudah, so we know the passing upside is there (the elbow injury still concerns me, Josh Allen hasn’t looked right) and the Lions’ tendency to play a lot of man-coverage should give Allen a significant rushing floor no one else has on this slate. He is the only pay-up option, but likely worth it. Only downside(s) here is the elbow injury and the projected blowout gamescript as the Bills are a 10-point favorite.
Dak Prescott ($6,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – Dak Prescott grades out as the AETY Model’s number one value at the quarterback position and for good reason. The New York Giants’ defense is arguably in worse shape than the Lions, as they’re riddled with injuries and will be without their top-two cover-cornerbacks in Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreau. The value on both DraftKings and FanDuel in NFL DFS lineups is significant as I really like my overall builds with Prescott over those lineups with Josh Allen. Like Allen, there is a real threat this game gets completely out of hand (like we saw last week) and Prescott and this passing attack are eased out of the game.

*Note: I will not be playing any other quarterback on this slate. Maybe Mac Jones or Jared Goff in MME, but I am taking a firm stand on the top-two options on this three game slate. I will NOT be getting cute with pay-downs and would advise you to do the same.

NFL DFS Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400 DK / $7,200 FD) – On DraftKings, Rhamondre Stevenson will be my first click at the running back position. The pass catching floor is second-to-no running back on this slate… that is too valuable to pass up. The Vikings’ defense is likely to be the highest owned and I’ll use the leverage Stevenson provides and completely fade that Minnesota defense spot. I’ll just pair Stevenson with the Patriots’ defense.

For those worried about Damien Harris, Stevenson still had a 78% snap share last week. The Patriots’ running back job is Stevenson’s to lose and we’ll continue to see a lot of routes ran as the Vikings’ run a ton of Cover-3 and Cover-4 zone defense (advantage Stevenson).
Devin Singletary ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD) – Playing into the narrative of the Bills blowing out the Lions and leaving Devin Singletary and James Cook with a solid workload. At their prices, they’re fine plays on this three game slate. More importantly, Devin Singletary has seen his red-zone rushing attempt usage absolutely skyrocket to six red-zone rushing attempts per game since Allen hurt his elbow in Week 10 against the Jets (1.16 red-zone rushing attempts per game prior to the injury).

The Other Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: a hefty price, but the most talented running back on the slate.
Dalvin Cook: would prefer him over Barkley, but I can’t really afford Dalvin in my single entry builds and don’t really think he’s worth it with top run-blocker, Christian Darrisaw OUT with a concussion.
Tony Pollard: He’s on fire and affordable. I 100% get it if you want to keep riding him, but Ezekiel Elliott taking goal-line snaps leaves me with a headache and reliant on Pollard big plays to hit value.
Jamaal Williams: Extremely touchdown reliant and can get scripted out of this game in a hurry.
D’Andre Swift: Justin Jackson is out-snapping him recently… WTF? If there’s any game to get Swift heavily utilized in the passing game, it’s this one.
Damien Harris: You’re praying for a touchdown if you roster him.
James Cook: Fine play at the price if you think Buffalo runs away with this one. We should see plenty of usage for the rookie coming on late!

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs ($8,000 DK / $9,300 FD) – My clear-cut, top wide receiver on this slate. No Jeff Okudah should lead to a very active first half for Stefon Diggs as no one can contain him on this Detroit secondary. Let’s hope Detroit can keep it close enough to where Diggs is active for four quarters!
CeeDee Lamb ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD) – Excellent comeback spot for CeeDee Lamb at home against Giants’ slot corner Darnay Holmes (the only healthy corner for the Giants… and he’s bad). Same situation as Diggs in regards to blowout potential.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD) – Great price on DraftKings for the most targeted wide receiver on the slate. As mentioned, it’s likely the Bills run away with this game leaving St. Brown in a favorable, pass-heavy gamescript.
Gabe Davis ($5,300 DK / $7,200 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings in the same sexy matchup as Stefon Diggs. Although the AETY Model loves the coverage scheme for Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis should have a field day when the Lions line up in Cover-3 zone defense.
Michael Gallup ($4,900 DK / $5,700 FD) – Michael Gallup is probably the highest-upside NFL DFS GPP wide receiver on this slate in terms of price and ownership. With Fabian Moreau and Adoree Jackson OUT, Gallup is going to have plenty of opportunities against the Giants’ Cover-1 man defense. I absolutely love his receiving prop over 38.5 yards receiving yards and will sprinkle a bit on an Anytime Touchdown at +235.

The Other Wide Receivers:

Justin Jefferson – The Patriots have done a fantastic job limiting the damage to opposing top wideouts. That shouldn’t be news to anyone as that’s usually been Belichick’s main objective, but the talent of Justin Jefferson is hard to ignore, especially after a stinker last week in Dallas. I’m taking the stand on Stefon Diggs this week, but 100% understand if you want Jefferson as he’s one of the only top receivers on this slate without blowout gamescript potential.
Jakobi Meyers – A cheap WR1 who should exceed expectations against the Vikings’ Cover-3 zone defense and blitz packages. Nothing sexy here, but on a three game slate, not everything will be.
Adam Thielen – Should be in a great spot against the Patriots’ man-coverage and heavy focus on Justin Jefferson, but Thielen leaves much to be desired since Hockenson joined the team. He’s worth the dice-roll on a few lineups, I suppose.
Kalif Raymond – He’s going to be a chalky option as he’s cheap exposure to a positive gamescript (assuming Buffalo gets ahead early). You guys can have a chalk Kalif Raymond, I’m out! Same thing can be said for Darius Slayton.
Richie James Jr. – Probably the only “punt-play” I somewhat can appreciate. The slot receiver in the Giants’ offense has excelled against Cover-1, Cover-2, and blitz heavy defenses (what the Cowboys will do). As long as he’s healthy, he’s probably my favorite pay-down punt now that Wan’Dale Robinson’s season is over.

**Note: I will likely not be punting at the wide receiver position. I am taking a firm stand on playing top-tier wide receiver options on this three game slate. I will NOT be getting cute with pay-downs as it looks like the field will 100% be rostering a punt-wide receiver or two. You can get a strong advantage (on-paper) by simply not doing that. The cards will unfold how they unfold and maybe a punt-play wideout is the optimal route, but I will not be doing so.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

TJ Hockenson ($5,000 DK / $6,300 FD) – The top option at the tight-end position by a wide margin. With all of the coverage likely to be focused on Jefferson, Hockenson (and Thielen) should be in for a nice output. The Patriots will blitz a good amount and the injury to Darrisaw should make Cousins rely on his lower ADOT pass-catchers.
Dalton Schultz ($3,800 DK / $5,800 FD) – Damn-near lock-button play for me at that price on DraftKings. I look at Schultz as a mid-tier WR2 on most slates… now this is a three-game slate… you do the math. If you equate the Vegas player props at respectable sportsbooks, he grades out as the third overall value on this slate. The AETY Model has him as the number one overall value on this slate.
Dawson Knox ($3,500 DK / $5,500 FD) – Solid cheap option though I prefer Schultz on both sites. The coverage scheme for Detroit seems to push up Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Devin Singletary in the AETY Model, but Knox is a fine option.
Hunter Henry ($3,100 DK / $4,900 FD) – I hate this spot, but my builds seem to call for someone in this price-range and I already made my statement on punt wide receivers. Minnesota’s zone defense does give the AETY Model reason to believe this is a solid spot for the Patriots’ tight-end (it may very well be Jonnu Smith… that’s why I hate the spot). Henry still has a significant advantage in terms of snap-counts and routes ran per game, but Jonnu Smith can certainly be the guy who scores a touchdown. That is what we’re hoping for down here in the dumpster… a touchdown.

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

New England Patriots – Christian Darrisaw being out is going to be a problem for the Vikings. Matthew Judon should have a field day.
Dallas Cowboys – This defense is on another planet right now and the matchup is lovely against the Giants.
Buffalo Bills – Likely very low-owned against Jared Goff…

NFL DFS GPP Core (DraftKings)

Unfortunately, we will not be doing a Thanksgiving livestream as most of us will be spending time with our families and likely have too many beers early and often, lol! Here’s my NFL DFS GPP core for the Thanksgiving slate:

Rhamondre Stevenson
Stefon Diggs
Amon-Ra St. Brown
CeeDee Lamb

2 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 11

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Week Ten is in the books, and what a slate that was! We struck DFS gold with Watson ($3,700 DraftKings) thanks to our AETY model, and there are plenty more where that came from here in Week 11! I saw plenty of winning lines in our Discord this weekend, let’s keep the NFL chat room that way. On to the 11-game main slate, in this article, we’re going to give you bits and pieces for your DraftKings or FanDuel DFS lineup builds, take this insight and use it to your advantage! Time to break it down…here we go!

Sunday Main Slate 11/20/22

Browns @ Bills (-8) (O/U 41.5)

Browns

Well, no Blizzard Bowl this weekend in Buffalo, as the game has been moved to Detroit in the dome. The Browns will continue to utilize one of the best O-lines in the NFL, and behind it will be Nick Chubb. He’s had a nose for the endzone, currently leading all NFL running backs with 11 touchdowns. Buffalo’s secondary has been stingy all season, look for Cleveland to focus on the ground game and play keep away from Josh Allen in this one.

Bills

Josh Allen and the Bills catch a huge break from Old Man Winter and get a trip to Detroit for an indoor battle with Cleveland. Start up your Buffalo players on this slate, this Browns’ defense has been giving up boatloads of yardage, mainly against the run. The 31st DVOA to opposing running backs is good news for Devin Singletary as well as the Bills’ premier rusher quarterback Josh Allen.

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, N. Chubb

GPP: D. Singletary, G. Davis

Lions @ Giants (-3) (O/U 45)

Lions

We’re not a fan of Jared Goff on the road, and facing a ferocious Giants’ pass rush hopefully, he can get rid of the ball quickly. New York should be run up the gut in order to move the football, who allows 133 yards per game on the season. We could see a bounce back in D’Andre Swift this week if he can get healthy, and Amon-Ra St. Brown being the only viable passing option he is a must-start for Detroit.

Giants

Probably the best matchup in line for the Giants’ top weapon at running back Saquon Barkley. He is single-handedly carrying the offense for the 7-2 G-Men, against the worst-ranked rushing defense, he will feast. New York also likes to get after the quarterback and force turnovers, maybe the road Jared Goff shows up at Met Life Stadium for some Giants DST fantasy points.

Cash: S. Barkley, A. St. Brown

GPP: D. Swift, Giants DST

Eagles @ Colts (+7) (O/U 44)

Eagles

The undefeated streak is over, and Hurts will look to re-establish himself in the win column. It will be a tough task on the road, but he gets the job done in fantasy regardless of the opponent. Hurts has been the best pound-for-pound dual-threat quarterback all season racking up 21 total touchdowns and a 106 QB rating. Always a safe play in DFS. The Eagles will also be without stud tight end Dallas Goedert for some time due to a shoulder injury, but receivers A J Brown and Devonta Smith will pick up the slack. A sneaky tournament punt at tight end would be backup Jack Stoll, who saw 40-57% of snaps from Weeks 4-8 while Goedert was healthy. Stoll will be a high-risk, high reward if he cashes one inside the pay dirt.

Colts

Indy looked great last week going back to their bread and butter on offense. Veteran Matt Ryan and running back Jonathon Taylor will go for two in a row at home. Philadelphia has had a shutdown secondary up until we saw cornerback Avonte Maddox go down Monday night. Paris Campbell will see plenty of rookie Josiah Scott on Sunday, we should see Ryan hook up with his new buddy Paris for another double-digit fantasy day. The price is still way too cheap for Campbell on DraftKings ($4,300).

Cash: J. Hurts, P. Campbell

GPP: J. Taylor

Jets @ Patriots (-3.5) (O/U 38)

Jets

Can the Jets finally get over the hump and take out Belichick and the Pats? They’ve had two weeks coming off a bye to figure out a game plan. With a 6-3 record, New York will need to work with what’s got them to this point, run the ball and play great defense. Meanwhile quarterback Zach Wilson has made a connection with first-round pick Garret Wilson. In their last two games, the Wilsons have linked up for 14 receptions and 207 yards, making Garret a steal at ($4,900) on DraftKings.

Patriots

The Pats’ quarterback situation may still be a puzzle this week, it all depends on who may have the hot hand, or who screws up. As it can always be a mystery with this offense, what has always been solid has been their defense. Jets’ quarterback Zach Wilson is no stranger to coughing up the football, and on the road, if he decides to play hero ball, Zach may make a few more mistakes.

Cash: Pats DST

GPP: G. Wilson, Jets DST

Panthers @ Ravens (-13) (O/U 41)

Panthers

The Panthers come into Baltimore with Baker Mayfield back under center. This spells potential disaster for fantasy across the board since Baker hasn’t started a game since Week 5. So don’t get cute this weekend by drafting any Carolina players facing this new and improved Baltimore defense. Let’s wait and see what happens, play it, safe guys.

Ravens

Lamar Jackson off a bye with rested legs, yup sign me up against this 26th DVOA Carolina rushing defense. And with a less than 100% Mark Andrews, the Ravens may choose to lean even more on the run, so Gus Edwards (if he plays) and Kenyon Drake are also roster-able this weekend. Don’t forget who is quarterbacking for Carolina too, so we may see Roquan Smith get more comfortable with his new team by rattling the cage of Baker Mayfield. Ravens DST is in play if you can pay up.

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews (if healthy), Ravens DST

GPP: G. Edwards (if healthy), K. Drake

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5) (O/U 49)

Bears

Quarterback Justin Fields has been white hot, scrambling for 365 yards and rushing for three touchdowns in his last two games. He’s a lock again facing Atlanta in another dome game that could lead to another track meet for Fields. He’ll be chalky with tight end Cole Kmet who’s caught five touchdowns in his last three games. so if you want to mix it up in your lines go after the other Chicago pieces. David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool are all playable at a discounted price against the worst-ranked passing DVOA in the NFL.

Falcons

This game totally has shoot-out potential, for when Chicago starts lighting up the scoreboard Atlanta and Marcus Mariota can absolutely keep up the pace with the Bears. Since Chicago unloaded their two best defenders in trade deals, they’ve allowed 115 points in their last three games. Although he is a risky play this week of a possible benching, Mariota has a ton of upside in this matchup. Kyle Pitts and Drake London will also be key benefactors if this game plays out. The falcons in DFS this week will allow you to pick up your high-end running backs (Saquon) and receivers (Jefferson).

Cash: J. Fields, K. Pitts

GPP: D. Montgomery, M. Mariota, D. London

Rams @ Saints (+1.5) (O/U 40)

Rams

Now that Cooper Kupp has been put on IR, this Rams offense could be way too unpredictable. Who knows where Stafford will look to use as his security blanket with Kupp on the bench? The targets are up for grabs in LA, but if I were looking to guess I would go cheap. The 6’4″ receiver Ben Skowronek is a nice value at ($3,900 DraftKings), but spending up for the de facto alpha Allen Robinson ($5,600 DraftKings) would not break the bank for a top-of-the-depth chart wideout. The matchup is also still great in New Orleans as long as corner Marshon Lattimore is still on the sidelines.

Saints

The rookie Chris Olave has taken full ownership of the receiving duties for the Saints well on his way to a 1,000–yard season. No one is in his way of seeing all the volume, as veteran Jarvis Landry is still getting eased back into action, and Michael Thomas has been ruled out for the season. But what really excites me in this game is the Saints’ defense. Stafford has already been a pick machine, but now with the loss of Kupp and his weak offensive line getting downgraded with more injuries, the Saints‘ DST could be a top play this week.

Cash: C. Olave, NO DST

GPP: A. Robinson, B. Skowronek

Commanders @ Texans (+3.5) (O/U 41)

Commanders

Taylor Heinicke may still be on cloud nine after pulling off that road upset against the undefeated Eagles. The Commanders played a textbook game of keep away from Jalen Hurts, running it down their throats with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. They draw a very favorable matchup on a Texan defense that allows over 180 rushing yards per game. Target funnel “Scary” Terry McLaurin also will catch a break in Houston lining up across rookie Derek Stingley, who will be torched on Sunday. Get any of them in your builds for Week 11, way underpriced, especially on DraftKings!

Update: Derek Stingley is out.

Texans

Stud rookie running back Dameon Pierce gets the most usage for the Texans on offense and is automatic at this point. But Washington is also guilty of having its own issues at cornerback with St. Juste and Fuller. Nico Collins ($4,100 DraftKings) could be in line for a huge day (10 targets in Week 10) facing a Commander secondary that ranks 25th against opposing receivers.

Cash: T. McLaurin, B. Robinson, A. Gibson

GPP: N. Collins, D. Pierce

Raiders @ Broncos (-3) (O/U 41)

Raiders

Vegas with a record of 2-7 and losing their fourth straight game are on the brink of a total meltdown. But don’t blame Davonte Adams for their struggles, he’s scored over 30 fantasy points in his last two games. He has fully taken over for the Raiders’ offense along with running back Josh Jacobs, who may have a sneaky smash spot in Denver. The Broncos gave up 144 yards on the ground to Jacobs in their first meeting. Not that any improvements have been made, they were gashed two weeks ago by Erienne for 156 yards. Pick your poison in Vegas.

Broncos

Denver on the other hand is down to one healthy receiver in Courtland Sutton, Let’s Ride…Vegas’ secondary has been a laughingstock of the league and is unable to cover anyone (27th in receiver DVOA) who has been rolled out onto the field this season. Sutton and tight end Greg Dulcich should receive all the passing volume if the injuries to Jeudy, Hamler, and Hinton keep them sidelined.

Cash: C. Sutton, D. Adams

GPP: J. Jacobs, G. Dulcich

Cowboys @ Vikings (+1.5) (O/U 47.5)

Cowboys

America’s Team suffered a tough road loss in Green Bay, allowing them to come back from a 17–point deficit to victory. Put it on the Cowboys’ defense though, Dak has looked back to his normal self after his recent injury, paving the way for receiver Cee Dee Lamb and tight end Dalton Schultz to be fantasy relevant again. The Vikes are 8-1, but don’t let their record fool you as they are ranked 29th against the pass. Plenty of fireworks indoors in Minnesota, we will need to attack here for sure in DFS.

Vikings

Justin Jefferson is a god. That catch in Buffalo went down as one of the best in a long time. If you have the space, put him in. If you want to pay down for some Vikings we have other options though. Tight end TJ Hockenson has seen a ton of volume since the trade, seeing 19 total targets. Dalvin Cook, remember him? He’s in another smash spot against Dallas who’s been slammed in their last two games for over 300 rushing yards.

Cash: J. Jefferson, C. Lamb, D. Cook, T. Hockenson

GPP: D. Prescott

Bengals @ Steelers (+4) (O/U 41)

Bengals

Coming off a bye week Burrow and the gang will want to get some payback from their embarrassing home-opening loss in Week One. But with TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick back on defense, it could be a little risky paying up for the Bengals this week. Keep them out of your cash builds and take shots in tournaments only.

Steelers

If you’re looking for a discount defense this week ($2,300 DraftKings), look no further. The sites still have not yet adjusted to the fact that Pittsburgh’s defense is much healthier with Watt and Fitzpatrick back. Another bargain with the Steelers is rookie receiver, George Pickens. He gets a rookie Bengal corner Cam Taylor-Britt…which should set him up to ball out even more, as he is already Pickett’s number-one target.

Cash: Pittsburgh DST, G. Pickens

GPP: J. Burrow

Cash Core 4

J. Fields, B.Robinson/A. Gibson, C. Lamb, K. Pitts

GPP Core 4

M. Mariota, D. Cook, D. Schultz, D. Mooney

Stacks

J. Allen/S. Diggs, J. Fields/ C. Kmet/D. Mooney/C. Claypool, M. Mariota/D. London/K. Pitts

D. Prescott/C. Lamb/T. Hockenson/D. Schultz/J. Jefferson/D. Cook

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

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