NFL DFS Picks

Week 13 in the books and it was a monster for us! A less than one percent-owned Trent Sherfield smashed in our lineups for over 14 fantasy points, we sweated it out for that one bomb he caught and it paid off for us! Let’s get right into Week 14’s breakdown, where we may find another scratch-off winner like Sherfield..who knows?! It’s a tight slate this week with six teams on bye, and as the player pool shrinks, the less of a margin for error. Stay on our Discord for all news, questions, and expert analysis. Week 14 is here fellas, are we ready…Here we go!

Sunday Main Slate 12/11/22

Vikings @ Lions (-2.5) (O/U 53)

Vikings

Well, here it is on a silver platter ladies and gentlemen, the game of the week. In what appears to be the contest to attack in DFS with a 53 under/over, pick up a few purple jerseys for your lineups. Jefferson put up a dud in their first meeting, so I anticipate some retribution from number 18. By all means, mix it up and grab other pieces to be different…Cousins, Dalvin, Thielen, and oh yeah my favorite Viking, The Hock. Detroit tossed him to the side for draft capital back in Week 8, so you know he is destined to get in the box against his old teammates in his old stomping ground. Minnesota has put up 60 points in the last two games, Let’s ride!

Lions

Same scenario here guys, grab your Lions. Both Detroit and Minnesota allow the most points (25) and total yardage (400YDS/Game) in the league. When two teams face off with bad defenses, it’s a DFS match made in heaven. Jared Goff may be the most popular quarterback of the slate, because of his price and upside. Amon-Ra Is on a serious heater scoring over 30 fantasy points in two games, sign me up. But let’s get different on the Detroit side too. Running backs Jamal Williams, the end zone monster with 14 touchdowns and D’Andre Swift are both enticing under $6K on DraftKings, but how about DJ Chark? He could be sneaky against a Vikings’ 30th DVOA to receivers and easily give us another repeat performance of 14 fantasy points.

Cash: K. Cousins, J. Jefferson, A. St. Brown, J. Goff

GPP: D. Cook, J. Williams, DJ Chark, TJ Hockenson, D. Swift

Eagles @ Giants (+7) (O/U 45.5)

Eagles

Philly could roll into Met Life Stadium and steamroll over a Giants’ team destroyed by injuries on both sides of the ball. Besides New York’s already beat-up secondary, they now lose their top pass rusher, Leonard Williams, this Sunday. Fly Eagles Fly… Hurts is always cash and GPP-friendly, and his teammates AJ Brown, and Devonta Smith pair nicely if you can squeeze their hefty salaries in. But we may see more of a Miles Sanders-type of game script. He may see plenty of carries against a 26th DVOA run defense, chewing up the clock against a Giants’ team that could struggle to move the chains.

Giants

The slot has been the key way to get the ball moving against the tough-as-nails Eagles’ defense. Punt alert, Ritchie James…let’s roll! The Giants most likely will be playing from behind all game, and with Saquon Barkley now on the injury report, quarterback Danny Jones becomes the best rusher by default (if Barkley sits out). Another nice dart throw…Rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger has built some chemistry with Jones, picking up where he left off after an eye injury and getting five looks. Well worth a shot at $3,300 on DraftKings, who’s no stranger to the end zone (3TDs).

Cash: J. Hurts, AJ Brown, D. Smith

GPP: M. Sanders, D. Jones, D. Bellinger, R. James

Jets @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 43.5)

Jets

In his third start this season, quarterback Mike White will have his feet put to the fire against a tough Buffalo defense on the road. Will he get to throw it 57 times like in Minnesota? Not a chance, but bet your last dollar the ball will be aimed at the rookie Garrett Wilson, who caught eight of an insane 15 targets. Although I’m positive the Buffalo defensive coordinator has something in store for Garrett after watching the tape, so taking a stab at Elijah Moore for $3,500 on DraftKings would be sexy in a GPP.

Bills

Buffalo needs this game to stay on top of the division and even up the score with New York. The bills go as far as their leader Josh Allen will take them. He’s got a tough match up but that didn’t stop him back in Week 9 from putting up 27 fantasy points in a road loss to New York. The Jets have been stingy to receivers ranking 6th in DVOA, so we may not want to pay up for Diggs this week. It’s feeling like a paydown week in Buffalo for me, and it’s for a chalk-a-potomous James Cook at $4,600 on DraftKings. The rookie caught six passes on top of rushing for 64 yards last week and appears to be moving in on Devon Singletary’s job at the moment.

Cash: J. Allen, G. Wilson

GPP: E. Moore, J. Cook

Browns @ Bengals (-6) (O/U 47)

Browns

Well, you got what you paid for if you took DeShaun Watson last week, a six-burger. Nick Chubb also had an off game in Houston, but he wasn’t needed since the Cleveland Browns’ defense put up 30 fantasy points themselves. I’ll look for him to bounce back this weekend against Cincinnati, pairing him with that defense that went from putting up 30 fantasy points to second cheapest on the slate…Who is in charge of the pricing on DK? As for Watson, I’m still in wait-and-see mode, but Amari Cooper did see the most targets (9) from the Browns’ new signal caller, if he plays he’s a tournament darling.

Bengals

Cleveland has owned Burrow for his career but is when Joe breaks out of his slump against his division rival. On paper, it does with a healthy Chase, Tee Higgins, and of course Joe Mixon, who may see a ton of work after missing a game from a concussion, against one of the worst run defenses in football. Don’t forget about Watson’s egg he laid in Houston either. He’ll get there eventually, but this week he may still show some rust. Give me a piece of the Bengals’ defense too.

Cash: J. Burrow, J. Mixon, N. Chubb, J. Chase

GPP: A. Cooper, T. Higgins, Browns DST, Bengals DST

Texans @ Cowboys (-17) (O/U 44.5)

Texans

Well, it looks like Houston is mailing it in for the season for the number one pick. Receivers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins have already been ruled out, opening up the entire offense for the rookie Dameon Pierce. We may not want to go that route though, as 17-point underdogs the Texans will be playing from behind a ton. Davis Mills will be returning as the starter and will have Chris Moore and Philip Dorsett to target, providing us some value this weekend at receiver.

Cowboys

The absolute worst rushing defense will face one of the best backfield duos in the league this weekend in Dallas. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott have averaged a combined 30 fantasy points per game this season, a plug-and-play for a slot or two at running back in DFS. I don’t mind rolling them both out there at the same time either, stack them with that Dallas defense too, if you can afford them.

Cash: T. Pollard, Cowboys DST, E. Elliot

GPP: C. Moore, P. Dorsett

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 41.5)

Jaguars

Receiver Christian Kirk came through big time last week as we called it, but it might be a Zay Jones kind of day in Tennessee. The Titans just do not blitz, which should open up a lot of routes for Jones, If he plays. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence does have a bum foot but we’ll give it a go, so let’s wait and see some news on Zay’s injury.

Titans

Treylon Burks, Tennessee’s number-one receiver, won’t make it out on the field this weekend. No worries, Tennessee will just keep riding the Derek Henry train until he falls off the tracks. Maybe not this Sunday though, as he has plowed over Jacksonville for his career. In his last three games since the 2020 season, he has rushed for a total of 429 yards with five touchdowns. He’ll have low ownership again this weekend, so jam him in your GPP lineups.

Cash: D. Henry

GPP: Z. Jones

Ravens @ Steelers (-2.5) (O/U 37)

Ravens

Baltimore as we all know by now will be without quarterback Lamar Jackson with a knee issue. Backup Tyler Huntley gets the start, where we probably won’t see much of a drop-off in an offense that is bone dry in weapons. Huntley is a risk, but as we have seen in previous starts Mark Andrews gets all the love when he is under center. Last season In five games alongside Huntley, Mark Andrews totaled 43 catches for 498 yards and three touchdowns.

Steelers

I’ve mentioned Huntley as a risky play, and he’s coughed up the ball four times in four starts in 2021. The Pittsburgh DST is a great play at home especially if TJ Watt gets on the field. Now Kenny Pickett didn’t give us what we expected in Atlanta, but I like the rookie at home against the Baltimore secondary who is 25th in DVOA to quarterbacks. $5,200 on DraftKings is a huge value on a slate trying to roster pieces from Detroit and Minnesota.

Cash: Steelers DST, M. Andrews

GPP: T. Huntley, K. Pickett

Chiefs @ Broncos (+9) (O/U 43)

Chiefs

The matchup looks grim on paper but that shouldn’t keep us from taking one of the best quarterback/tight end duos in history. Mahomes and Kelce should see some low ownership this weekend, jam them in tournaments too. But I still can’t stop clicking on Pacheco! Less than 10 percent owned and for two weeks finding the endzone, he’s like found money. And let’s not forget about the defense cheat code for DFS, Broncos country…the Chiefs DST is in play here.

Broncos

Is the season over yet? That’s what everybody in Denver has been saying since Week 1. It makes me nauseous of the thought of taking Russell Wilson for $5,200 on DraftKings, but it’s the Chiefs who are one of the most pass-friendly defenses (27th in DVOA). And now without Courtland Sutton this Sunday, Jerry Jeudy is a lock for volume for a bargain at $5,400 on DraftKings.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, J. Jeudy

GPP: R. Wilson, I. Pacheco, Chiefs DST

Panthers @ Seahawks (-4.5) (O/U 43.5)

Panthers

DJ Moore is the guy again in Carolina since Sam Darnold has been plugged back in at quarterback for the Panthers. Last week he only saw six looks, but they cashed in for four grabs with 103 yards and a touchdown. Hey but wait a sec, remember D’Onta Foreman? The dude has had four 100-yard games with four touchdowns since taking over McCaffrey. Facing the second-worst run defense in Seattle? Yea, I like them apples.

Seahawks

The Seahawk backfield has been hit hard by injuries, and we still don’t know if Kenneth Walker III or backup DeeJay Dallas will be able to go. Head coach Pete Carroll may want to just throw it all day, and nobody can guard DK Metcalf. But is Travis Homer worth a shot at in the Seattle running back committee? I think he is. On their depth chart, Homer is the true second back on the depth chart, seeing 30 percent of the snaps when Walker was dominating the position. Now that he’s healthy again, he could be very sneaky as a flex in a tournament.

Cash: DJ Moore, DK Metcalf

GPP: T. Homer (if Walker III is out), D. Foreman

Bucs @ Niners (-3.5) (O/U 37)

Bucs

We are still waiting on some news out of Tampa regarding the status of Fournette. If he can’t roll out, lock up Rashaad White. Don’t drink the kool-aid on San Francisco being a shut-down run defense either, they just haven’t seen any big threats in my opinion. The Chargers, Falcons, and Bears all feasted in rushing, leaving no reason for White to get his. One more nugget I’d like to add via Stix… Julio Jones could be this week’s Trent Sherfield fellas. For only $4,000 on DK he has a clear height advantage over the Niners’ worst corner Lenoir. Julio is a well-worth dart throw on a very unowned receiver for the slate.

Niners

Well, it’s officially Brock Purdy season, since Jimmy G broke his foot last week against the Dolphins. The rookie filled in nicely, throwing two touchdowns in the victory. The Niners should take the ultra-conservative approach moving forward, relying mostly on their defense and keeping the ball in their playmakers like McCaffrey. CMC’s workload may be on the rise, but risky until we see what we get on Sunday. If you’re feeling lucky, take a dirt cheap Purdy ($5,100 on DraftKings) in a GPP and mix it up in cash or a tournament with McCaffrey.

Cash: R. White (if Fournette is out), C. McCaffrey (GPP too)

GPP: B. Purdy, J. Jones

Cash Core

J. Hurts/A. St. Brown/J. Mixon/T. Pollard/M. Andrews

GPP Core

J. Goff/Z. Jones(if he plays)/D. Henry/TJ Hockenson/DJ Moore

Stacks

J. Goff/A. St. Brown/J. Williams/DJ Chark/D. Swift

K. Cousins/J. Jefferson/D. Cook/TJ Hockenson

J. Hurts/AJ Brown/D. Smith/M. Sanders

J. Burrow/J. Chase/T. Higgins/J. Mixon

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 14. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

It felt like only yesterday that we kicked off the NFL season and already it’s Week 13. And what a week we are in store for in DFS, with five of the twelve games having totals of 47 to 52.5. As you will read in this article, there will be so many ways to victory that you may be forced to create more lineups than you normally would. Also, make sure you check out my take on the Cleveland/Houston matchup, don’t be so quick to run and use Deshaun Watson in his first game back in 700 days. Not to throw any shade on him, but by all means, go with your gut if you are feeling that move. This week just has a smorgasbord of pivots and angles to attack in DFS, so remember to refer back to our Discord and Projection Models when building your lineups. Let’s gooo!

Sunday Main Slate 12/4/22

Titans @ Eagles (-4.5) (O/U 44.5)

Titans

Tennessee will continue to ride the coattails of Derrick Henry and not make it a secret. But will he come up short again like last week? The Eagles have made some improvements in free agency (Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph) but continue to get gashed by opposing running backs (Aaron Jones and A J Dillon combined for over 35 DK PTS). Henry is always a reliable DFS running back but for this week let’s keep him out of our cash games and roll him in GPPs.

Eagles

With a record of 10-1, the Eagles appear destined for glory this season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a lock week in and week out, but in this matchup, we may see receiver A J Brown in a get-right revenge game against his former team. Facing a skank secondary that is 28th in DVOA to receivers, Brown is destined for the end zone against a Titans’ organization that refused to pay him and get traded away for a first-round pick in 2022.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown

GPP: D. Henry

Jets @ Vikings (-3) (O/U 45)

Jets

We may have seen the last of Zach Wilson this year after Mike White’s performance. I mentioned him in my breakdown last week that he would crush his salary (27.8 DK FPTS) and yet again he lines up in another great spot against Minnesota (28th in DVOA to QBs) in a dome. White is not the only Jet you may want to take this weekend. The running backs here are loaded with value (James Robinson, Ty Johnson, and Zonovan Knight) but are way too risky to decide on, so use any in a GPP. A much safer play would be pairing White with a share or two of his receivers. Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and a revenge game for tight end Tyler Conklin returning back to Minnesota make a sneaky stack pivoting off the late games on the slate.

Vikings

Believe it or not, the Jets have been pretty tough on defense as of late. They’ve only allowed three touchdown passes in their last 10 games, so Cousins may not be a QB in play this week. Justin Jefferson is matchup-proof, so feel free to keep him in cash games If you can afford him. The rest of the Vikes are priced way too high for me to take a shot on against this Jets’ defense, even Dalvin Cook may not pay off his hefty pricetag on a New York front that has not given up a rushing TD since Week 7.

Cash: J. Jefferson

GPP: M. White, G. Wilson, E. Moore, T. Conklin

Commanders @ Giants (+2.5) (O/U 40)

Commanders

If you’re looking for a cheap play at running back, look no further. The rookie Brian Robinson may be in line for an increased workload at a discount If Antonio Gibson sits this one out. The New York Giants have allowed 150 yards with five total touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last two games. Robinson is a lock for cash if this situation plays out for Sunday.

Giants

The window is beginning to close for the Giants to make the playoffs, so it’s now or never. But with news breaking about Saquan Barkley possibly getting a lighter workload, New York will need to rely more on the passing game in order to win at home. The Commanders have cleaned it up a bit on defense, only allowing two passing touchdowns in their last three games. Regardless, the Giants’ will need to pass to win, and their skeleton crew of receivers is way too cheap. Darius Slayton and Richie James are set to have a big day as long as they can get healthy.

Cash: B. Robinson (Gibson out)

GPP: D. Slayton, R. James (if they can roll out)

Broncos @ Ravens (-8.5) (O/U 39.5)

Broncos

Free Courtland Sutton! He’s put up double-digit fantasy points at receiver in his last three games and the only game in town for DFS in Denver. The Ravens are a force at stopping the run, so Lat Murray will be a no go for me this week, not that he has been a stud averaging three yards per carry. Denver has been the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year as Russell Wilson and the coaching staff have set the franchise back a decade. It’s Sutton for GPP, no one is safe for cash in Bronco Country.

Ravens

Well, Lamar has not panned out from what we expected for this season either. If it wasn’t for his rushing upside, he’d be right up there cooking with Russ. But Gus Edwards seems to be back to 100% and against the tough Denver defense I’d rather pay down for Gus to fall in the endzone than Jackson’s low pass volume and high price tag. Denver has also been a cheat code for opposing defenses, pay up if you can for the Ravens’ DST in this low total contest.

Cash: Ravens DST

GPP: C. Sutton, L. Jackson, G. Edwards

Browns @ Texans (+7) (O/U 47.5)

Browns

Here it is, the game we’ve all been waiting for. Will Watson go off on his former team or will he show signs of rust, time will tell. The one player who is money in the bank is Nick Chubb, playing behind one of the best O-lines in football. Add that nugget up with one of the worst run defenses in the league and you have the formula to pay up here at running back. The only thing that bothers me is if Watson will hog the spotlight in this game and look to throw or run one into the endzone himself at the goal line. One thing for sure is Texan quarterback Kyle Allen was a turnover machine last week with two picks and two fumbles leading to scores for Miami. If you have confidence in the Browns D, pay up for them.

Texans

Some big late news broke on Friday that Texan receiver Brandin Cooks will not play on Sunday, elevating Nico Collins to the number one passer option for Houston and a no-brainer on DraftKings ($4,200). However, don’t forget about the rookie Dameon Pierce. He’s underwhelmed for the last two games, but he has the sixth-highest snap-share among running backs facing the Browns’ 30th-ranked run defense. I’m fine with using both in cash games.

Cash: N. Collins, N. Chubb, D. Pierce, Browns DST

GPP: D. Watson

Jaguars @ Lions (-1) (O/U 51)

Jaguars

T Law is coming off a career-best performance last week posting 321 passing yards with three touchdowns against Baltimore. It may be a double-down week to take Lawrence for a second week straight as he’ll be indoors to face the Lions. In what may look to be a track meet in Detroit, Christian Kirk may benefit more in the receiving department if he lines up in the slot opposite Joe Harris, who’s spilled out 15 receptions for 196 yards in his last two games.

Lions

At home, the Lions are at their best and will look the case against a soft Jaguar defense that has allowed 54 points in their last two games. We’ll see more of the usual from Goff to Amon Ra, with a sprinkle of Jamaal Williams at the goal line. Fellow receivers other than ASRB are priced way down to $4K and lower, so a nice GPP stack might be found in this game using D J Chark and Kalif Raymond

Cash: T. Lawrence, C. Kirk, A. St. Brown

GPP: J. Goff, J. Williams, K. Raymond, D. Chark

Packers @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 44.5)

Packers

Green Bay is on the outside looking into the playoffs for the season, so even in a great matchup for Aaron Rodgers, I would tread lightly. He’s pretty banged up with a thumb and now a rib injury, any shot taken during the game may force him to the sideline. So for me, it’s an Aaron Jones kind of day, especially at his DraftKings salary ($6,900). Even if Rodgers does get pulled, wideouts Christian Watson and Allen Lazard should still feast on the Bears’ bush league of defense if Jordan Love were to take over. Other than Jones, keep everybody else in tournaments.

Bears

Chicago has given their superstar athlete at quarterback the green light for Sunday, but how effective will he be? Justin Fields injured his non-throwing shoulder in Week 11, but it’s not his passing that he is known for. one bad hit after a scramble may also take him out of the game. His ceiling is through a roof but keep him in your tournament this weekend, who may see very low ownership on this slate.

Cash: A. Jones

GPP: A. Rodgers, J. Fields, A. Lazard, C. Watson

Steelers @ Falcons (-1) (O/U 42.5)

Steelers

The first quarterback taken in last year’s draft may have his best game this season on the road in Atlanta. Kenny Pickett can easily smash his salary four times its value playing indoors, using a little of his legs, and letting loose on the Falcon secondary that has been exploited all season. Pairing Pickett with Pickens and Friermuth makes a ton of sense here, but Diontae Johnson may be riskier because of his inability to build any chemistry with the rookie QB. The questionable tags have been all over the Steeler running backs, best to keep an eye on reports for tonight through tomorrow morning for a Najee Harris/Jalen Warren possible lone backfield.

Falcons

I just can’t put anybody in Atlanta in my lineups this week because of this Pittsburgh defense led by TJ Watt. Now that Kyle Pitts landed on IR, opposing defenses will continue to gravitate toward the rookie Drake London. I mean if I were to throw a dart here, it would be at Zaccheaus. Olamide ate off London’s plate last week while catching five of eight passes for 91 yards.

Cash: K. Pickett, G. Pickens, N. Harris/J. Warren (if one sits out)

GPP: P. Friermuth, O. Zaccheaus

Dolphins @ Niners (-4) (O/U 46.5)

Dolphins

Well, we all should know Miami’s blueprint by now in Week 13, if you’re just tuning in now it’s a three-headed monster with Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle. Besides Tyreek Hill, many Dolphins for this week may not be usable in DFS facing a tough San Fran defense on the road. So will it be a Jeff Wilson/Raheem Mostert revenge game? I wouldn’t bet on that either against the Niners’ front line. Ever hear of a guy by the name of Trent Sherfield? He’s basically on the field all the time alongside Tyreek and Waddle with over a 60% snap rate and could be worth a punt based on his price tag on DraftKings ($3,300). Thanks to Stix and the model for this gem, he may not be as sexy as the last Christian Watson call, but definitely makes sense against a Niner defense that will focus mainly on Waddle and Hill.

Niners

The Dolphins have also been decent at stopping the run (10th in DVOA) which could force Garoppolo to throw it more than he likes to. Miami’s cornerbacks and safeties have allowed over 60 receptions with five touchdowns over their last three games. Deebo may not be able to go Sunday so pay attention to injury reports, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will be a lock if he is ruled out.

Cash: B. Aiyuk, G. Kittle (if Deebo is ruled out even better), T. Hill

GPP: T. Sherfield, J Garoppolo

Seahawks @ Rams (+7) (O/U 41)

Seahawks

Seattle may get the same scenario game as Kansas City when they played LA…a wet noodle of an offense. Geno Smith and the Seahawks may not have any type of motivation to light up the scoreboard this weekend. We should see a lot of Kenneth Walker chewing up the clock and that Seattle defense causing some turnovers and three-and-outs.

Rams

The defending champs have waived the white flag to the NFL, pulling every big-name player and placing them on IR, most recently QB Matt Stafford. The Rams appear to want to get an idea of who else they have on their roster by giving them some playing time. Rookie running back Kyren Williams could be busy for the end of the regular season, and Seattle’s 153 rushing yards allowed per game has breakout written all over this game. Kyren is a sleeper and a smooth play as your RB2 in your GPP.

Cash: Seattle DST, K. Walker

GPP: K. Williams

Chiefs @ Bengals (+1.5) (O/U 52.5)

Chiefs

Let’s get ready to rumble, the Main Event will be at 4:25 EST in Ohio, when Kansas City looks to even the score from last year’s loss to the Bengals. Mahomes and Kelce all day, in 11 games they’ve connected on 73 receptions with 12 touchdowns, and Mahomes has thrown for 29…eh not bad. A smart but chalky stack this weekend, we need to get a little different here. Pacheco had a solid game against LA last week, finding the endzone for a cool 15 DK points, and rushing for 70 yards. Currently, he leads the backfield in snap percentage (51%), which may lead to another trip to the endzone in Cinci.

Bengals

The Chiefs are 24th in DVOA to quarterbacks, so they will let you throw on them. Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and maybe Ja’Marr Chase ( if he can suit up) would be in a pass-funnel offense at home, locking them in our lineups with the highest game total of the slate. Even running backs Joe Mixon (if he clears protocols) and Samaje Perine can feast off this zone defense which allows plenty of the dink-and-dunk.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, J. Burrow, T. Higgins, J. Mixon/S. Perine

GPP: I. Pacheco, J. Chase (if he plays)

Chargers @ Raiders (-1) (O/U 50.5)

Chargers

Justin Herbert crushed Arizona last week, and he’ll do it again to Vegas. The Raiders are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defending receivers and sending pressure to the quarterback. No Mike Williams again maybe? No problem, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and the almighty running back Austin Ekeler are enough firepower to take out a small army. All playable in DFS this weekend, I especially like Herbert for cash.

Raiders

As bad as Vegas’ defense is, we love them for fantasy, forcing the offense to play from behind. Derek Carr may have to throw it another 36 times this week in order to stay in the game. Davante Adams as their main pass catcher all season (71 REC/10 TD), will also be busy. But if running back Josh Jacobs has his way again in this game (229 RSH/74 REC/2 TDs), Herbert may not have as much time on the field. LA’s defense against the run is a dismal 29th in DVOA, so if Jacobs can convince the doctors he can play, he’s a lock once again.

Cash: J. Herbert, J. Jacobs (if he plays), D. Adams, A. Ekeler, K. Allen

GPP: D. Carr

Cash Core

J. Herbert,AJ Brown, Nico Collins, Josh Jacobs, T. Kelce

GPP Core

K. Pickett, N. Chubb, P. Friermuth, C. Kirk, T. Sherfield

Stacks

J. Herbert/K. Allen/J. Palmer/A. Ekeler, J. Burrow/J. Chase (if he plays)/T. Higgins, P. Mahomes/T. Kelce/I. Pacheco, T. Lawrence/C. Kirk/ Z. Jones, D. Carr/D. Adams/J. Jacobs(if he plays)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 13. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

Well, I hope everybody enjoyed their holiday, welcome back to the grind! Thanksgiving has come and gone with a mini three-game slate that entertained us all over dinner amongst family and friends. Now that we’ve digested all that grub, it’s time to break down this Week 12 of NFL action. There are so many paths to cash this slate and I’m happy to bring them to you. As always, stay up to speed on our community Discord and use our projection model to fall back on players that you are unsure of. Now without further delay let’s get right into this 11-game Main Slate, Week 12 breakdown, it’s on!

Sunday Main Slate 11/27/22

Texans @ Dolphins (-13.5) (O/U 46.5)

Texans

Houston will be one of a few teams this week featuring a new quarterback in Week 12, starting Kyle Allen over Davis Mills. Allen is nothing spectacular, in 21 career starts in Carolina and Washington he’s thrown for 24 touchdowns to 17 interceptions, running in a few scores himself on the ground. The price is right for a GPP but by all means keep him out of cash games, even with his Miami 22nd DVOA to QB matchup. The only safe piece in Houston is Dameon Pierce, but I also like the Nico Collins price tag ($4,100 on DraftKings). The Texan double-digit spread sends the message that they will be playing from behind for most of the game, forcing Nico into lineups this weekend.

Dolphins

The big three in Miami of Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle is a shoo-in this week to ball out against the 1-8-1 Texans, but will they be sitting out in the second half because of them being up by three touchdowns? Tua is probably the safest of the three since we know he will be in command of the scoring. There will be some chalk in this game though since news broke recently of running back Raheem Mostert being listed as doubtful to play. Fellow back Jeff Wilson Jr. will inherit the lion’s share of carries against the worst-ranked run defense in the league.

Cash: T. Tagovailoa, J. Wilson Jr.

GPP: K. Allen, N. Collins

Ravens @ Jaguars (+4) (O/U 43.5)

Ravens

It looks like Gus Edwards will finally return to the field after logging two full practices this week, giving Baltimore much-needed depth at running back. He’s a sneaky, under-the-radar play at RB who may see all the goal-line work in Jacksonville. Lamar Jackson and tight end Mark Andrews returning off a bye week are also in play, but much safer for cash games.

Jaguars

The revamped Raven defense with the addition of Roquan Smith held Carolina to only three points in Week 10, so I’m weary of starting too many players in Jacksonville. But the AETY Model does like tight end Evan Engram, so consider him as a decent-size punt (3.3X value) for only $3,200 on DraftKings.

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: G. Edwards, E. Engram, Ravens DST

Bears @ Jets (-4.5) (O/U 39.5)

Bears

The Bears enter the tri-state area with a questionable tag for quarterback Justin Fields, who suffered a shoulder injury last week. If he sits out, It will be Trevor Siemian season facing a tough Jets defense that already has 32 sacks on the year… I’ll pass on both this week. Another heavy dose of David Montgomery may be in store for Chicago’s game plan, but I would only recommend him in tournaments this week because of the matchup.

Jets

Zach Wilson is in timeout for Week 12 after an embarrassing loss to New England, handing Mike White the keys to the Jets’ offense. In four games, and three starts last season, White threw for 953 yards, five touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Four of those picks were against a top-ranked Buffalo defense in 2021, which led him back to the bench and I don’t put that against him. White will sling it and against this Bears’ beatable secondary he could easily pay off his very low salary ($4,900 on DraftKings). Keep him in tournaments, but the Jets’ D looks great against Siemian (if he starts) on the road.

Cash: Jets DST (Siemian plays)

GPP: M. White, D. Montgomery

Falcons @ Commanders (-4) (O/U 42)

Falcons

30% of the Atlanta target share went up for grabs when tight end Kyle Pitts landed on IR this week, putting Drake London in absolute control of the Falcon receiving core. The rookie first-round pick is in a smash spot as not only the featured receiver in Atlanta but a matchup with Kendall Fuller/Ben St.-Juste, who has been toasted all season. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, who may also be a sleeper at his position, will be looking for jersey number 5 (London) all afternoon.

Commanders

The same scenario for the Commanders can be said for Atlanta, as they face a bottom three DVOA pass defense in the league. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke has only had eyes for wideout Terry McLaurin in his return as a starter, targeting him 43 times in just five games. T-MC continues to be underpriced on DraftKings ($5,800) and should be considered a lock at receiver, but keep his QB Heinicke in tournaments.

*** Curtis Samuel and Johan Dotson can also get some love too in this contest

Cash: D. London, T. McLaurin

GPP: M. Mariota, T. Heinicke, C. Samuel, J. Dotson

Bengals @ Titans (+1.5) (O/U 42.5)

Bengals

Cincinnati will be without stud running back Joe Mixon due to concussion protocols, so is it Samaje Perine season again? Not so fast. He did score three touchdowns last week, but he’ll be splitting carries with Chris Evans against the number two rushing defense…buyer beware. It will be a Joe Burrow game for sure, facing a secondary ranked 30th in the NFL. If he gets his boy Ja’Marr Chase back, the field will be spread out, even more, making another Bengals’ stack enticing again this week. Higgins, Boyd, and tight end Hurst are all viable plays here too.

Titans

The Titans and Derrick Henry will be out for revenge after getting the boot from the Bengals in the 2021 AFC Wild Card game. Tennessee will as usual utilize their franchise battering ram at running back to keep Burrow off the field and chew time off the clock. If in fact, Tannehill does decide to air it out, rookie Treylon Burks has seen 14 targets in his last two games, cashing in for 10 of them. For only $4,200 on DraftKings, he makes a nice discount on a run-back play in a GPP stack of this game.

Cash: J. Burrow, D. Henry, T. Higgins (if Chase sits out)

GPP: J. Chase, T. Boyd, H. Hurst, T. Burks

Broncos @ Panthers (+2) (O/U 36)

Broncos

The Broncos finally waived running back Melvin Gordon leaving Latavius Murray as the only game in town at the position. He’s not sexy but will get a ton of volume and all the goal line work, but making him touchdown reliant averaging only three yards per carry this year. With all the chalk at running back this weekend, Murray may float under the radar against a Panther 26th DVOA to opposing running backs. Watch the weather in Carolina too, it could get uglier not just because Sam Darnold is starting at quarterback, but they may see some rain. Take that Bronco defense if you can.

Panthers

The Panthers are one piece away from being a solid team in the league, and without a quarterback, you can see how bad it has been. Sam Darnold will be getting the call to start, and Carolina is drawing at straws, desperately seeking an answer to this losing season. Possible rain, Surtain, and Darnold are telling us to stay clear this weekend with any Panthers.

Cash: Bronco DST

GPP: L. Murray

Bucs @ Browns (+3.5) (O/U 43)

Bucs

Another stadium that may be affected by wind and rain in Cleveland could put a damper on a Bucs offense that may be looking to throw a lot this weekend. Starting running back Leonard Fournette is listed as doubtful, giving a major opportunity to rookie Rachaad White to lead the backfield against the second-worst rushing defense. But when you’re playing with Brady, he’ll get you the ball rain, sleet, or shine. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are always safe when healthy for DFS.

Browns

Jacoby Brissett hammered the Bills’ defense for 29 fantasy points last week, maybe we should ride the hot hand against the Bucs? Sure why not? He’s at home, his receivers are healthy, and he has one of the best running backs in football Nick Chubb. Cleveland’s defense has been a train wreck recently, Brissett will again be playing from behind and forcing his arm to air it out in what could be his last game this year. (Watson returns in Week 13). Keep Cleveland in your tournaments.

Cash: R. White, C. Godwin, M. Evans

GPP: J. Brissett, D. Njoku, N. Chubb, A. Cooper, D. Peoples-Jones

Raiders @ Seahawks (-3.5) (O/U 47.5)

Raiders

Vegas having one of the worst secondaries in the league forces Derek Carr and Davonte Adams to play catch all afternoon. Now with running back Josh Jacobs popping up on the injury report with a calf, Davonte may have even more of a role carved out for him in the offense. Seattle’s been no stranger to giving up big plays either, ranking 21st in DVOA to quarterbacks. Carr fed Adams 13 targets, catching 7 for 141 yards and two touchdowns in Denver, expect more of the same in Seattle. Adams for cash games, and Carr for GPPs.

Seahawks

The Raiders’ young and inexperienced secondary has been the league’s punching bag all season. What an opponent to have come off a bye week for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. At a measly $6,000 on DraftKings, Smith can hit value by halftime with receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. And let’s not forget about the rookie phenom Kenneth Walker III, who may be finishing off plenty of drives into the endzone this weekend. The volume and game flow will favor Walker and the Seahawks if they end up with a sizeable lead in the second half.

Cash: G. Smith, D. Adams, D. Metcalf, K. Walker, T. Lockett

GPP: D. Carr

Chargers @ Cardinals (+4.5) (O/U 47.5)

Chargers

This matchup for Justin Herbert has a breakout written all over it against Arizona. One game removed from a lingering hamstring, Herbert’s number one Keenan Allen will be running circles around Marco Wilson and the Cardinal secondary, which will be without their top corner Byron Murphy Jr. Fellow Chargers’ wideout Mike Williams is set to miss another game, enter Josh Palmer. The second-year receiver could also see a big afternoon, like last week’s 8-106-2 stat line. There’s always Austin Ekeler in play, we can’t overlook LA’s top running back when he’s healthy, he’s a lock in all cash games.

Cardinals

Arizona is beat up on defense as we just spoke on, but they are getting back quarterback Kyler Murray. This is great news for DeAndre Hopkins, who gets peppered on a weekly basis by Murray. But consider James Connor this week at running back away from the chalk. He owns the backfield against one of the worst run defenses (30th in DVOA) in the league, if the game does get into a shoot-out, Connor may be a sneaky player at running back. Then there’s also Trey McBride taking over for Zach Ertz at tight end. The rookie saw a near 80% snap share in his debut as a starter, so he’s well worth a thought as a punt this weekend at tight end.

Cash: J. Herbert, K. Allen, D. Hopkins, A. Ekeler

GPP: J. Connor, J. Palmer, K. Murray, T. McBride

Saints @ Niners (-9.5) (O/U 43)

Saints

New Orleans is in limbo as far as their injury report on the defensive side of the ball, as this could determine a lot of what kind of action may be on the field come Sunday afternoon. On offense, it’s always Chris Olave at receiver, who is a magnet for the football in a Saints’ uniform. At running back, Alvin Kamara is a hard fade against the second-best run defense of San Fransisco. It’s Olave or bust in New Orleans, who’s still fairly priced on DraftKings ($6,600). Although tight end Juwan Johnson is quietly making some noise as a red zone threat, with three touchdowns in his last three games, take a shot on him in a tournament.

Niners

Along with the news we are still waiting for in New Orleans, receiver Deebo Samuel also appeared on the injury report yesterday. So teammates Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will get a huge uptick in looks from Jimmy Garoppolo if he can’t suit up. Running back Christian McCaffrey is an auto start if you can pay up, as well as the top-five defense of the Niners. You’ll need a piece of San Fran in your lineup if Marshon Lattimore and Cam Jordan are in street clothes this Sunday.

Cash: C. McCaffrey, B. Aiyuk/G. Kittle (if Deebo sits out) C. Olave

GPP: J. Garoppolo, Niner DST, J. Johnson

Rams @ Chiefs (-14.5) (O/U 44)

Rams

When you thought it could not get any worse for the defending champs, out goes Matt Stafford with another concussion. Coach Sean McVay will roll the dice with third-stringer Bryce Perkins at quarterback, who may give the Rams a boost with the use of his legs under center. Young and inexperienced QBs tend to favor their safety valve at running back and tight end, so Bryce may lean on Kyren Williams and Tyler Higbee could be busy this weekend. Tournaments only guys, keep it safe.

Chiefs

Blood will be in the water at Arrowhead Stadium, as the Chiefs’ defense will put pressure on a rookie quarterback with one of the worst O-lines in the league. By now there’s no need to mention Mahomes and Kelce as they are always safe for cash, but given the game flow, they may be sitting out in the second half. My move would be to aim low for savings in the KC high-powered offense as a huge favorite. Isiah Pacheco and Skyy Moore could see some extra playing time if Kansas City is up big.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, Chiefs DST

GPP: B. Perkins, T. Higbee, K. Williams, I. Pacheco, S. Moore

Cash Core

J. Herbert, K. Allen, DK Metcalf, R. White, T. Kelce

GPP Core

G. Smith, J. Palmer, J. Connor, S. Moore, E. Engram

Stacks

J. Herbert/K. Allen/J. Palmer/A. Ekeler, J. Burrow/J. Chase (if he plays)/T. Higgins, G. Smith/ DK Metcalf/ T. Lockett/K. Walker III

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 12. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.