NFL DFS Picks

Week Ten is in the books, and what a slate that was! We struck DFS gold with Watson ($3,700 DraftKings) thanks to our AETY model, and there are plenty more where that came from here in Week 11! I saw plenty of winning lines in our Discord this weekend, let’s keep the NFL chat room that way. On to the 11-game main slate, in this article, we’re going to give you bits and pieces for your DraftKings or FanDuel DFS lineup builds, take this insight and use it to your advantage! Time to break it down…here we go!

Sunday Main Slate 11/20/22

Browns @ Bills (-8) (O/U 41.5)

Browns

Well, no Blizzard Bowl this weekend in Buffalo, as the game has been moved to Detroit in the dome. The Browns will continue to utilize one of the best O-lines in the NFL, and behind it will be Nick Chubb. He’s had a nose for the endzone, currently leading all NFL running backs with 11 touchdowns. Buffalo’s secondary has been stingy all season, look for Cleveland to focus on the ground game and play keep away from Josh Allen in this one.

Bills

Josh Allen and the Bills catch a huge break from Old Man Winter and get a trip to Detroit for an indoor battle with Cleveland. Start up your Buffalo players on this slate, this Browns’ defense has been giving up boatloads of yardage, mainly against the run. The 31st DVOA to opposing running backs is good news for Devin Singletary as well as the Bills’ premier rusher quarterback Josh Allen.

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, N. Chubb

GPP: D. Singletary, G. Davis

Lions @ Giants (-3) (O/U 45)

Lions

We’re not a fan of Jared Goff on the road, and facing a ferocious Giants’ pass rush hopefully, he can get rid of the ball quickly. New York should be run up the gut in order to move the football, who allows 133 yards per game on the season. We could see a bounce back in D’Andre Swift this week if he can get healthy, and Amon-Ra St. Brown being the only viable passing option he is a must-start for Detroit.

Giants

Probably the best matchup in line for the Giants’ top weapon at running back Saquon Barkley. He is single-handedly carrying the offense for the 7-2 G-Men, against the worst-ranked rushing defense, he will feast. New York also likes to get after the quarterback and force turnovers, maybe the road Jared Goff shows up at Met Life Stadium for some Giants DST fantasy points.

Cash: S. Barkley, A. St. Brown

GPP: D. Swift, Giants DST

Eagles @ Colts (+7) (O/U 44)

Eagles

The undefeated streak is over, and Hurts will look to re-establish himself in the win column. It will be a tough task on the road, but he gets the job done in fantasy regardless of the opponent. Hurts has been the best pound-for-pound dual-threat quarterback all season racking up 21 total touchdowns and a 106 QB rating. Always a safe play in DFS. The Eagles will also be without stud tight end Dallas Goedert for some time due to a shoulder injury, but receivers A J Brown and Devonta Smith will pick up the slack. A sneaky tournament punt at tight end would be backup Jack Stoll, who saw 40-57% of snaps from Weeks 4-8 while Goedert was healthy. Stoll will be a high-risk, high reward if he cashes one inside the pay dirt.

Colts

Indy looked great last week going back to their bread and butter on offense. Veteran Matt Ryan and running back Jonathon Taylor will go for two in a row at home. Philadelphia has had a shutdown secondary up until we saw cornerback Avonte Maddox go down Monday night. Paris Campbell will see plenty of rookie Josiah Scott on Sunday, we should see Ryan hook up with his new buddy Paris for another double-digit fantasy day. The price is still way too cheap for Campbell on DraftKings ($4,300).

Cash: J. Hurts, P. Campbell

GPP: J. Taylor

Jets @ Patriots (-3.5) (O/U 38)

Jets

Can the Jets finally get over the hump and take out Belichick and the Pats? They’ve had two weeks coming off a bye to figure out a game plan. With a 6-3 record, New York will need to work with what’s got them to this point, run the ball and play great defense. Meanwhile quarterback Zach Wilson has made a connection with first-round pick Garret Wilson. In their last two games, the Wilsons have linked up for 14 receptions and 207 yards, making Garret a steal at ($4,900) on DraftKings.

Patriots

The Pats’ quarterback situation may still be a puzzle this week, it all depends on who may have the hot hand, or who screws up. As it can always be a mystery with this offense, what has always been solid has been their defense. Jets’ quarterback Zach Wilson is no stranger to coughing up the football, and on the road, if he decides to play hero ball, Zach may make a few more mistakes.

Cash: Pats DST

GPP: G. Wilson, Jets DST

Panthers @ Ravens (-13) (O/U 41)

Panthers

The Panthers come into Baltimore with Baker Mayfield back under center. This spells potential disaster for fantasy across the board since Baker hasn’t started a game since Week 5. So don’t get cute this weekend by drafting any Carolina players facing this new and improved Baltimore defense. Let’s wait and see what happens, play it, safe guys.

Ravens

Lamar Jackson off a bye with rested legs, yup sign me up against this 26th DVOA Carolina rushing defense. And with a less than 100% Mark Andrews, the Ravens may choose to lean even more on the run, so Gus Edwards (if he plays) and Kenyon Drake are also roster-able this weekend. Don’t forget who is quarterbacking for Carolina too, so we may see Roquan Smith get more comfortable with his new team by rattling the cage of Baker Mayfield. Ravens DST is in play if you can pay up.

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews (if healthy), Ravens DST

GPP: G. Edwards (if healthy), K. Drake

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5) (O/U 49)

Bears

Quarterback Justin Fields has been white hot, scrambling for 365 yards and rushing for three touchdowns in his last two games. He’s a lock again facing Atlanta in another dome game that could lead to another track meet for Fields. He’ll be chalky with tight end Cole Kmet who’s caught five touchdowns in his last three games. so if you want to mix it up in your lines go after the other Chicago pieces. David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, and Chase Claypool are all playable at a discounted price against the worst-ranked passing DVOA in the NFL.

Falcons

This game totally has shoot-out potential, for when Chicago starts lighting up the scoreboard Atlanta and Marcus Mariota can absolutely keep up the pace with the Bears. Since Chicago unloaded their two best defenders in trade deals, they’ve allowed 115 points in their last three games. Although he is a risky play this week of a possible benching, Mariota has a ton of upside in this matchup. Kyle Pitts and Drake London will also be key benefactors if this game plays out. The falcons in DFS this week will allow you to pick up your high-end running backs (Saquon) and receivers (Jefferson).

Cash: J. Fields, K. Pitts

GPP: D. Montgomery, M. Mariota, D. London

Rams @ Saints (+1.5) (O/U 40)

Rams

Now that Cooper Kupp has been put on IR, this Rams offense could be way too unpredictable. Who knows where Stafford will look to use as his security blanket with Kupp on the bench? The targets are up for grabs in LA, but if I were looking to guess I would go cheap. The 6’4″ receiver Ben Skowronek is a nice value at ($3,900 DraftKings), but spending up for the de facto alpha Allen Robinson ($5,600 DraftKings) would not break the bank for a top-of-the-depth chart wideout. The matchup is also still great in New Orleans as long as corner Marshon Lattimore is still on the sidelines.

Saints

The rookie Chris Olave has taken full ownership of the receiving duties for the Saints well on his way to a 1,000–yard season. No one is in his way of seeing all the volume, as veteran Jarvis Landry is still getting eased back into action, and Michael Thomas has been ruled out for the season. But what really excites me in this game is the Saints’ defense. Stafford has already been a pick machine, but now with the loss of Kupp and his weak offensive line getting downgraded with more injuries, the Saints‘ DST could be a top play this week.

Cash: C. Olave, NO DST

GPP: A. Robinson, B. Skowronek

Commanders @ Texans (+3.5) (O/U 41)

Commanders

Taylor Heinicke may still be on cloud nine after pulling off that road upset against the undefeated Eagles. The Commanders played a textbook game of keep away from Jalen Hurts, running it down their throats with Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. They draw a very favorable matchup on a Texan defense that allows over 180 rushing yards per game. Target funnel “Scary” Terry McLaurin also will catch a break in Houston lining up across rookie Derek Stingley, who will be torched on Sunday. Get any of them in your builds for Week 11, way underpriced, especially on DraftKings!

Update: Derek Stingley is out.

Texans

Stud rookie running back Dameon Pierce gets the most usage for the Texans on offense and is automatic at this point. But Washington is also guilty of having its own issues at cornerback with St. Juste and Fuller. Nico Collins ($4,100 DraftKings) could be in line for a huge day (10 targets in Week 10) facing a Commander secondary that ranks 25th against opposing receivers.

Cash: T. McLaurin, B. Robinson, A. Gibson

GPP: N. Collins, D. Pierce

Raiders @ Broncos (-3) (O/U 41)

Raiders

Vegas with a record of 2-7 and losing their fourth straight game are on the brink of a total meltdown. But don’t blame Davonte Adams for their struggles, he’s scored over 30 fantasy points in his last two games. He has fully taken over for the Raiders’ offense along with running back Josh Jacobs, who may have a sneaky smash spot in Denver. The Broncos gave up 144 yards on the ground to Jacobs in their first meeting. Not that any improvements have been made, they were gashed two weeks ago by Erienne for 156 yards. Pick your poison in Vegas.

Broncos

Denver on the other hand is down to one healthy receiver in Courtland Sutton, Let’s Ride…Vegas’ secondary has been a laughingstock of the league and is unable to cover anyone (27th in receiver DVOA) who has been rolled out onto the field this season. Sutton and tight end Greg Dulcich should receive all the passing volume if the injuries to Jeudy, Hamler, and Hinton keep them sidelined.

Cash: C. Sutton, D. Adams

GPP: J. Jacobs, G. Dulcich

Cowboys @ Vikings (+1.5) (O/U 47.5)

Cowboys

America’s Team suffered a tough road loss in Green Bay, allowing them to come back from a 17–point deficit to victory. Put it on the Cowboys’ defense though, Dak has looked back to his normal self after his recent injury, paving the way for receiver Cee Dee Lamb and tight end Dalton Schultz to be fantasy relevant again. The Vikes are 8-1, but don’t let their record fool you as they are ranked 29th against the pass. Plenty of fireworks indoors in Minnesota, we will need to attack here for sure in DFS.

Vikings

Justin Jefferson is a god. That catch in Buffalo went down as one of the best in a long time. If you have the space, put him in. If you want to pay down for some Vikings we have other options though. Tight end TJ Hockenson has seen a ton of volume since the trade, seeing 19 total targets. Dalvin Cook, remember him? He’s in another smash spot against Dallas who’s been slammed in their last two games for over 300 rushing yards.

Cash: J. Jefferson, C. Lamb, D. Cook, T. Hockenson

GPP: D. Prescott

Bengals @ Steelers (+4) (O/U 41)

Bengals

Coming off a bye week Burrow and the gang will want to get some payback from their embarrassing home-opening loss in Week One. But with TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick back on defense, it could be a little risky paying up for the Bengals this week. Keep them out of your cash builds and take shots in tournaments only.

Steelers

If you’re looking for a discount defense this week ($2,300 DraftKings), look no further. The sites still have not yet adjusted to the fact that Pittsburgh’s defense is much healthier with Watt and Fitzpatrick back. Another bargain with the Steelers is rookie receiver, George Pickens. He gets a rookie Bengal corner Cam Taylor-Britt…which should set him up to ball out even more, as he is already Pickett’s number-one target.

Cash: Pittsburgh DST, G. Pickens

GPP: J. Burrow

Cash Core 4

J. Fields, B.Robinson/A. Gibson, C. Lamb, K. Pitts

GPP Core 4

M. Mariota, D. Cook, D. Schultz, D. Mooney

Stacks

J. Allen/S. Diggs, J. Fields/ C. Kmet/D. Mooney/C. Claypool, M. Mariota/D. London/K. Pitts

D. Prescott/C. Lamb/T. Hockenson/D. Schultz/J. Jefferson/D. Cook

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 11. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

Ten games to examine in Week 10 of the NFL Sunday Slate, we are already into double-digit weeks into the season! Time flies when you are setting lineups and cashing in DFS. This week is pretty cut and dry, with four teams on bye and the league loaded with injuries we can come to a conclusion on where we want to attack in DFS. Always take advantage of the projection model to give you that extra edge on the competition, and tag me @jdicarlo78 or any of our staff on our Discord for any help on who to get in your lineups up until lock. Let’s get it on!

Sunday Main Slate 11/13/22

Browns @ Dolphins (-3.5) (O/U 49.5)

Browns

Miami has been an opponent’s worst nightmare to defend, and if they run up the score on Sunday, Jacoby Brissett will be throwing more often than handing the ball off to Nick Chubb. As well as the Dolphins can put up points, they bleed them out just as fast. Miami has given up 59 points in their last two games providing fantasy value at every position. We can target the Browns’ receivers (Cooper and DPJ), Chubb, and even Kareem Hunt if you really want to be dirty. If you want to be a contrarian, Jacoby Brissett at his price tag ($5,400 DraftKings/$) would save you some dough in a tournament.

Dolphins

Welcome to Miami…and the Dolphins plan on showing the Browns around town in circles this weekend. With Tua being the highest-rated quarterback (115.9) and Tyreek Hill leading the league in receiving yards (1,104), not one team has had any answers to defend them. The Browns still struggle against the run and are 29th in DVOA. Newly acquired Jeff Wilson Jr. has fit right into this 49er-style rushing attack and at ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) he could provide some cap relief.

Cash: T. Tagovailoa, T. Hill, A. Cooper, N. Chubb

GPP: D. Peoples-Jones, J. Wilson Jr., J. Brissett

Texans @ Giants (-4) (O/U 41)

Texans

The Texans’ offense has been heavy doses of rookie running back Dameon Pierce, primarily due to their lack of a competent quarterback. Pierce, who’s been averaging 22 touches over his last three games, is the only show in town for Houston thus far, but if Nico Collins can get back out there at wideout in New York this week I can see taking a flier on him at a measly ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel)

Giants

Fresh off a bye and a tough loss on the road in Seattle in Week 8, the Giants fall into a nice bounce-back situation at home against the Texans. New head coach Brian Daboll will ride the hot hand and continue forcing stud bell-cow Saquon Barkley down opposing defenses’ throats. You’ll pay a hefty price for him at ($8,900 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) but it will be well worth facing a Texan run defense who could not stop a runny nose (dead last at 32nd DVOA). Don’t let Barkley’s salary scare you away, Tennessee’s Derrick Henry was at ($8,400 DraftKings) when he crushed it with 38 DK points.

Cash: S. Barkley, D. Pierce, Giants DST

GPP: N. Collins

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-9.5) (O/U 51)

Jaguars

On the road coming into Arrowhead as double-digit dogs, the Jaguars will need to put it in 5th gear at kickoff. The Lawrence and Kirk combo is in full effect for this game, and a sprinkle of Etienne would not be a bad idea either. If Jacksonville were to fall behind by a large lead, or perhaps they do come out swinging, it would be this trio of Jaguars to move the football. The Chiefs’ zone defense allows heavy rushing (25th in DVOA) and passing (25th in DVOA) allowing opponents to move the chains on a game-to-game basis, relying more on Mahomes and the offense to pull off wins

Chiefs

I’ll skip the Mahomes and Kelce hype, we all know they are locks. The big news out of Kansas City on Friday was the downgrade of running back Jerrick Mckinnon (62% snap share in Week 9) and the ruling out of receiver Mecole Hardman (54% snap share in Week 9). This opens up so many doors in Kansas City for value plays this weekend. Isiah Pacheco and Kadarius Toney could make great GPP possibilities on Sunday. This news also ramps up more opportunities for starters MVS and Ju Ju.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, T. Etienne, C. Kirk, J. Smith-Schuster

GPP: T. Lawrence, I. Pacheco, K. Toney, M. Scantling

Broncos @ Titans (-3) (O/U 38)

Broncos

Bronco Country… Let’s not F this one up. Five starters on the Titans’ defense have already been ruled out including Bud Dupree. Russel Wilson (holding my breath as I type this) should light up this Tennessee secondary without breaking a sweat. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton have fallen way down in pricing because of this dumpster fire of an offense, let’s hope and pray we can use all three this week and hit. Tight end rookie Greg Dulcich continues to crush his salary and will be the chalk at his position for the slate. Lastly, Tennessee has no quarterback! Malik Willis in two games has not thrown for 64 yards and Ryan Tannehill is still banged up, start-up that Bronco D!

Titans

They were a train wreck to watch in Primetime of Week 9, I thought I would never say that I’m looking forward to Ryan Tannehill getting back under center for the Titans. With or without him, Tennessee will continue to feed the beast of Derrick Henry into a Denver front seven that has been smoked by the likes of Travis Etienne (156 rushing yards last week) and Josh Jacobs (144 rushing yards in Week 4).

Cash: G. Dulcich, D. Henry, Broncos DST

GPP: R. Wilson, J. Jeudy, C. Sutton

Vikings @ Bills (-3.5) (O/U 43.5)

Vikings

We’re gonna fade on the offensive pieces of Minnesota this week guys, just too pricy against a Buffalo defense that will need to pick up the slack for their injured quarterback Josh Allen, who may not play. On that note, that Minnesota defense at ($2,200 DraftKings/$3,200 FanDuel) is looking very tasty facing a less than 100% Josh Allen, Case Keenum, or Matt Barkley commanding the offense on what may be a chilly and soggy afternoon in Buffalo.

Bills

I’m sure everybody has heard the news about star quarterback Josh Allen’s elbow, and it doesn’t look good for Week 10. Beware of using any of the Bills this weekend since we really have no idea what the coaching staff plans on doing. I’ve mentioned in my quarterback Week 10 article of using Case Keenum as a flier, but now today I have heard some buzz about the possibility of seeing third-stringer Matt Barkley. Let’s watch and see what happens this weekend fellas and go from there next weekend.

Cash: Vikings DST

GPP:

Lions @ Bears (-2.5) (O/U 48.5)

Lions

Will we see the road Jared Goff in Chicago? I sure hope not. Amon-Ra St. Brown with his 30% target share is the only game in town for the Lions against this tapped-out Bears’ defense. The Hock is gone, Josh Reynolds is out, Swift still getting eased back in, and two rookie tight ends. Can we get another 40 burger like in Week 2 for Amon, Jared? Asking for a friend.

Bears

The chalkiest play at quarterback will absolutely be Justin Fields this week after he scorched Miami for 45 DK points in a Week 9 shoot-out. I get it, totally way too cheap and a nice plug-in for cash, but what if the Lions do not put up enough of a fight? Let’s think outside the box. Running back David Montgomery still owns 70% of the snaps, if Fields doesn’t have to scramble, then he benefits as well as Chase Claypool on the outside. Coach Eberflus has spoken publicly about bringing more work toward Claypool this coming week. Let’s get in on the action while he is dirt cheap ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel).

Cash: J. Fields

GPP: A. St. Brown, C. Claypool, D. Montgomery

Saints @ Steelers (+1.5) (O/U 40)

Saints

Looks like the Saints will be a little healthier as veteran receiver Jarvis Landry will finally be back in the lineup. This should create some space between defenders for the rookie phenom Chris Olave. Pittsburgh will be getting DPOY linebacker TJ Watt back as well, so the Saints better have Dalton get rid of that ball quickly and accurately, or else.

Steelers

The Chase Claypool move to Chicago left a huge opportunity for receptions in the Steel City. Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Friermuth should be seeing a nice uptick in usage. The Saints’ dead-last receiver DVOA that is still without Marshon Lattimore should give a huge boost in fantasy value. We may see Kenny Pickett break 20 fantasy points against this hot mess of a defense, take a flier stack on some Steelers this week.

Cash: C. Olave, D. Johnson

GPP: K. Pickett, G. Pickens, Steelers DST

Colts @ Raiders (-4.5) (O/U 40.5)

Colts

New head coach Jeff Saturday, a former offensive lineman in Indianapolis, has no coaching experience. What would you do if you were in his shoes? Right, give the ball to your best playmaker Jonathon Taylor. Deon Jackson is out, and Phillip Lindsay was sent packing, He’s the last man standing and has gotten plenty of practice this week. His price has plunged into the $7K range on DraftKings, which makes him a great under-the-radar move in DFS.

Raiders

Vegas has placed tight end Darren Waller and receiver Hunter Renfrow on IR this week. Davante Adams will absolutely benefit from this dilemma, but so will the 6’4″ Mack Hollins. Carr has favored him all season, and the last time he was in this situation he exploded for 30 plus DK points. Enjoy a free bee and pick up the Mack daddy

Cash: M. Hollins

GPP: J. Taylor

Cowboys @ Packers (+4) (O/U 43)

Cowboys

The Cowboys have not had much luck in Lambeau Field over the recent years, possibly due to not being used to the local weather. I’m hesitant to spend too much salary here in Dallas, but tight end Dalton Schultz is way too cheap. He’s only $3,800 on DraftKings and facing a bottom-tier DVOA to tight ends (21st) sign me up.

Packers

The Packers may soon be packing it in this year. Rodgers‘ frustration may have a loss of loyalty with some of his teammates. He at some point will have to start trusting his teammates and with his receiving core decimated by injury, it’s time. Rookie Christian Watson is well worth his price tag to be the guy this week to step up. Take a shot for $3,700 on DraftKings.

Cash:

GPP: C. Watson, D. Schultz

Cardinals @ Rams (-1.5) (O/U 40.5)

Cardinals

Kyler Murray popped up on the injury report this week with a hamstring issue. If he does suit up, be careful. History shows that a less than 100% Kyler refused to run in previous seasons, if you’re looking for the rushing upside it may not be here this week. The Cardinals’ defense may be worthy. Matt Stafford is still in concussion protocols, setting up second-string quarterback John Wolford to start behind a swiss cheese O-line.

Rams

I never thought I would see the week to fade Cooper Kupp, but it has arrived. Too expensive to trust in the hands of John Wolford. A limping Kyler Murray or another backup quarterback scenario in Arizona would tempt me to also use the Rams DST. Aaron Donald chasing McSorely around SoFi Stadium could light up your DST slot this weekend.

Cash: Cardinals DST, Rams DST

GPP:

Cash Core 4

P. Mahomes, S. Barkley, A. Cooper, Vikings DST (no Josh Allen)

GPP Core 4

R. Wilson, C. Claypool, A. St. Brown, J. Taylor

Stacks

P. Mahomes/T. Kelce, T. Lawrence/T. Etienne/C. Kirk, R. Wilson/J. Jeudy/G. Dulcich

T. Tagovailoa/T. Hill, J. Brissett/A. Cooper/D. Peoples Jones

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 10. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.