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NFL DFS GPP

Week 3 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Week 2 saw some big performances from the likes of Mark Andrews (9/104/1) and Darren Waller (6/50/1), and some disappointments (looking at you, Dalton Schultz). The more data we have, the better. Here’s to Week 3 being a lucrative one!

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 3 on DraftKings and FanDuel! Let’s kick off Week 3 with some Tight End picks!

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

After two weeks, the TE leading the NFL in targets is…Tyler Higbee. He has seen 11 and 9 targets, respectively, and parlayed those opportunities into 12/110. While he hasn’t found paydirt yet, this type of volume keeps him in play each week. The Rams have the 6th-highest passing rate in the NFL this season at nearly 66%.

Cooper Kupp will always be the top target here, but Higbee has become Mr. Reliable. Higbee has seen three Red Zone targets over two weeks, including three inside the 10. He may not have the upside you’re looking for to win a GPP, but he is a safe, solid bet for your cash lineup.

The Cardinals have been brutalized by opposing TE thus far in 2022, allowing a ridiculous 19/212/3 line over just two weeks. Smash spot.

Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

The Arizona Cardinals offense has been stagnant early in 2022. They have seemingly sleep-walked through the first half of each game before piling on the stats late. In DFS, we don’t care when the points come.

The good news? Ertz is leading all TE with five targets inside the RedZone in 2022. Even better? After being limited with only 39 snaps in Week 1, Ertz led all players at the position with 73 in Week 2.

He seems criminally underpriced for a player who tied with Mark Andrews with most TE targets in Week 2 (11). A matchup against the Rams doesn’t scare me one bit. The Cardinals are 3.5 point underdogs with a total hovering around 50. Ertz looks like an elite play across the board, despite a perceived tough matchup.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)

This isn’t a sexy play, but Conklin needs to be on your radar again this week. The Jets have thrown the ball on a ridiculous 74.66% of their offensive plays in 2022. This is mainly a product of playing from behind, but the point remains.

Conklin is the only TE in the NFL who has seem 70+ snaps each week. Joe Flacco has targeted him 16 times in those two games. The Bengals have allowed nearly 70 YPG to TE in 2022, and are currently listed as 4.5 point favorites. Flacco may just keep slinging it until his arm falls off at this point.

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)

Everett may find himself in the doghouse after last week, but that remains to be seen. If you missed it, Everett was targeted on consecutive plays. The Chargers ran hurry-up, Everett called to the sideline to come out of the game and was waved off. Justin Herbert looked his way at the goal-line and Everett was gassed. Pick-6. Game-changer.

I’m choosing to look past that and focus on the good. Everett has hauled in nine of 14 targets for 125 yards and a score over two games this season (6-71 on 10 targets in Week 2). The status of Keenan Allen will likely play a huge factor for Everett’s target share. Be sure to watch out for his status, and Everett’s floor and ceiling will take a hit if he returns in Week 3.

Jacksonville has been tough on opposing TE in 2022, but they haven’t played anyone of note. Give Everett a look this week, especially if Allen can’t go.

Irv Smith Jr, Minnesota Vikings ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel

Smith paid off in a big way on Monday night, but it could have been so much better. He dropped a WIDE OPEN ball that most likely would have been a long touchdown. Despite this gaffe, his 5/36/1 line on eight targets was exactly what we were looking for.

He still only saw 34 snaps, but that was nearly double his total from Week 1 (19). Justin Jefferson was shut down by Darius Slay (but mostly by Kirk Cousins), which opened up more opportunities for Smith. The Lions have had issues on the defensive end this season, allowing 65 points in two games. If Cousins can get it together, this one has shootout potential. Take a look at TJ Hockenson on the opposite side as well.

I don’t need to tell you to play the likes of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, but they are elite plays regardless of matchup.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 3, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 2 NFL DFS GPP Lineups for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

After an insanely strong start to the NFL DFS GPP season in Week 1, let’s get right back at it for Week 2! To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

As mentioned in the Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown, I’m all in Kyler Murray ($7,500 DK / $8,500 FD) and Derek Carr ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD). The ownership doesn’t seem to be trending too much in their direction and I simply do not see any path that the game doesn’t shootout. If I’m not rostering one of those two it’s very likely I’ll consider the following:

Jared Goff ($5,400 DK / $6,700 FD)

Outside of Arizona @ Las Vegas, the AETY Model really only seems to like the pace of the Washington @ Detroit game in the dome. It’s a very small sample size but Detroit and Washington both ranked inside the top-10 for expected pace of play and project to do the same again this week. I really liked what I saw with Ben Johnson’s game plan and moving the ball downfield significantly more than Anthony Lynn did in 2021. Yes, the Eagles certainly pushed the Lions into a more pass-happy gamescript, but I worry that this Detroit defense will struggle for quite some time which leads them into these pass-happy gamescripts.

Stacking Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, D’Andre Swift, TJ Hockenson
Run-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson

Honorable Mention: Tom Brady, Trevor Lawrence (weather dependent)

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 DK / $9,000 FD)

It was a beautiful week to fade a 25% owned Christian McCaffrey last week and it paid off, but I do feel like we got more lucky than anything. If you rewatch that game, the Cleveland Browns absolutely suffocated the clock and dominated time-of-possession (which then lead to a lot less CMC than the DFS public was expecting). This week, that will not be the case as the Panthers travel to East Rutherford to take on an expected high-pace team (they played Tennessee last week, who also suffocates the clock, so don’t look much into the Giants’ lack of plays just yet) in the Giants.

Christian McCaffrey is going to be the forgotten child up top in the running back pool due to the recency bias of DFS players (8-10% ownership projection) and that is something we will take advantage of.

Joe Mixon ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD)

Please read the Cash Game Checkdown for more analysis on Joe Mixon. If you want to fade the Saquon Barkley chalk, the AETY Model believes this is an absolute smash spot for Joe Mixon.

Josh Jacobs ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD)

Arguably my favorite play on the slate at the running back position, I’m all in this week on Josh Jacobs. Again, I am making it a priority to get exposure to Arizona @ Las Vegas and Josh Jacobs seems to be the best value in that game now that Brandon Bolden is likely out with a hamstring injury. Yes, we’ll see plenty of Ameer Abdullah, but Jacobs against this putrid Arizona defense with a bit more pass-catching equity than usual is something I’ll be locking in when only 12-15% of the field is riding with Josh Jacobs.

Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,200 DK / $5,600 FD)

This is simply a pivot off of what will likely be a rather chalky Jeff Wilson Jr. week. I never trust Shanahan to give a runner a full workload (Wilson Jr.) and we know how much utilization Deebo Samuel and Trey Lance get in the red-zone… I’m going to fade Wilson for those reasons. Now that Ty Montgomery is on the IR, we’re very likely to see a lot more passing game work for Stevenson and that is something I’ll buy low on this week against a Pittsburgh defense that should continue to bleed production to pass-catching running backs.

Chase Edmonds offers us the same exact situation as well.

Honorable Mention: James Conner, Nick Chubb, Antonio Gibson, Chase Edmonds, Dameon Pierce

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $8,800 FD)

Unfortunately, we will not be getting the ownership discount on Adams like we did last week, but I’ll be pressing the lock button on him yet again in Week 2 against Arizona. Stack this game.

Terry McLaurin ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD)

As I’m looking to get exposure to the Commanders @ Lions, I’m loving this matchup for a 3-5% owned, Terry Mclaurin. The Lions’ secondary is trash and they will likely continue to play a lot of press-man coverage… something Terry McLaurin has destroyed throughout his career. Everyone will be chasing the production from Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson (and maybe for good reason), but the top wideout in this offense is going un-owned.

Christian Kirk ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

With Kenny Moore likely missing this game, I’ll go right back to Christian Kirk who is a clear WR1 still priced like a WR2. The Colts played a rather conservative zone defense last week and the way to beat Trevor Lawrence (outside of just simply outscoring the weaker Jaguars, lol) is by pressuring him. As long as Gus Bradley doesn’t change his standard “bend don’t break” defensive scheme, Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk will hook up early and often in this matchup where the Jaguars likely play from behind from the get-go.

DJ Chark Jr. ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

It appears that the masses are flocking to this game to stack it up and mainly on the Carson Wentz side of things. I’m fine if you trust Wentz, but if Wentz and the Commanders have a solid game and score at will like the public seems to think they will, Goff will have a field day in return. Yes, I absolutely love Amon-Ra St. Brown (it’s the same matchup we loved Christian Kirk in last week) but I also love the idea of a 1% owned DJ Chark Jr. who lead this team in air yards (by a wide margin) and red-zone targets in Week 1. As much as I do not like “chasing production” the talent has always been there for Chark and the matchup on the outside with Kendall Fuller and William Jackson is one he should thrive in if this game goes up-paced. Do I hear a double stack?

Honorable Mention: Cooper Kupp, Courtland Sutton, Marquise Brown, Jarvis Landry, Parris Campbell, Diontae Johnson, Courtland Sutton

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

No surprise here, it will be the same player pool from the Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown with the addition of T.J. Hockenson. I love the idea of Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, or T.J. Hockenson for GPPs to get exposure to the lower-owned side of the games with the highest totals on the slate, but all players from the cash article will be in my pool.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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Stix Picks: Week 2 NFL DFS GPP Lineups for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Jared Goff ($5,400 DK / $6,700 FD)

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 DK / $9,000 FD)

Joe Mixon ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD)

Please read the Cash Game Checkdown for more analysis on Joe Mixon. If you want to fade the Saquon Barkley chalk, the AETY Model believes this is an absolute smash spot for Joe Mixon.

Josh Jacobs ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD)

Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,200 DK / $5,600 FD)

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $8,800 FD)

Unfortunately, we will not be getting the ownership discount on Adams like we did last week, but I’ll be pressing the lock button on him yet again in Week 2 against Arizona. Stack this game.

Terry McLaurin ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD)

Christian Kirk ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

DJ Chark Jr. ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Game by Game Breakdown Week 2

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Week One and done! Our project models were razor-sharp and should’ve increased your bankroll over the weekend! But there’s no time to sit back and count our money… there’s plenty more to make in Week 2! With so many ways to set your lineups on this 12-game slate, we got you covered. There were some incredible scores last week with a few big names like A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase in those cash games, so let’s get back to the lab and formulate more NFL DFS winners! Again always here to help in our discord chat, you can tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any insight…Thanks and Good Luck this weekend!

Sunday Main Slate 9/18/22

Bucs @ Saints (+2.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 44)

Buccaneers

Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 10 YPC against the front seven of New Orleans and since Brady’s O-Line is a mess, he may want to hand it to his bell-cow Fournette, who looked like a battering ram Sunday night in Dallas. Chris Godwin may have come back from rehab too soon as he went down again with a hamstring, not looking good for him to play. So is Mike Evans a lock? Saints stud corner Marshon Lattimore says otherwise. He’s owned big Mike, holding him to 8 catches over the past 4 regular season matchups. Pivoting to Julio and Gage would fit nicely in a tourney.

Saints

The Bucs are still a brick wall to run on with Vita Veya and company upfront, so it’s a pass on Kamara for me this week. Jameis will be forced to throw a ton and after a two-year hiatus, Michael Thomas will get his share of targets again, especially after his two touchdowns. I mentioned above about Tampa’s O-Line, that Saints pressure could really rattle Brady on Sunday and force a few turnovers and sacks Saints DST I am not arguing at all for ($2,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel). On the flip side, Tampa themselves have been strong on defense. We all have seen Winston over the years turn over the ball, give me Tampa DST to play it safe.

Update: A. Kamara is out!!!

Cash: T. Brady, L. Fournette, Tampa DST, M. Thomas

GPP: J. Jones, R. Gage, Saints DST

Panthers @ Giants (-2.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 43)

Panthers

I was not impressed with the offense, which looks to be still in the works and needs some more time to gel. CMC did not put up as many points as anticipated, mainly because of the Browns dialing in on defense. How about a homecoming for Robbie Anderson at the Meadowlands? He led Carolina with 8 targets, grabbing (5 REC for 102 YDS and a TD). Born and raised in Teaneck, NJ, and drafted by the Jets in 2016, Anderson may put out another nice stat sheet in front of family and friends.

Giants

New York pulled out an upset in Tennessee and the entire world saw Saquon Barkley carry his team to victory. This kid looked like he went back in time to 2018, rushing for 164 yards and a touchdown. He caught 6 balls for 30 too, making him hands down the focal point of the G-Men. I’m not feeling this low total though, so I would only feel safe with Barkley in this one. Now as a Giants fan, I would have said Sterling Shepard was still the WR1 of the core, even coming off an Achilles injury he proved my theory on the money. He is the only trust-worthy receiver for New York that brought in a 65–yard touchdown catch in Tennessee.

Cash: S. Barkley

GPP: R. Anderson, S. Shepard

Jets @ Browns (-6) 1 p.m. (O/U 40)

Jets

Ooofff another game where I’d rather be getting a root canal than watch. Sorry about last week guys, tried being a little too creative with Joe Flacco, he’s toast. He does like dumping off to his running backs, in fact, Michael Carter caught 7 of them. Elijah Moore did see 7 targets and is the best option at receiver for New York, I can invest with them in a GPP, especially Carter who has been praised by the head coach Robert Salah.

Browns

I dote on the fact that Cleveland kept quiet all week while Baker was in the spotlight, and pulled out the win in Carolina. Their defense when healthy is a huge headache for O.C.s and will 100 percent get to Flacco. The Browns will look to eat up the clock using Chubb and Hunt after getting the ball back from Jets’ 3 and outs. Possibly DPJ can break one off on a deep route like what Duvernay and Bateman did a week ago.

Cash: N. Chubb, Cleveland DST, M. Carter

GPP: K. Hunt, M. Carter, E. Moore, D. Peoples-Jones

Patriots @ Steelers (+1) 1 p.m. (O/U 40)

Patriots

What a disaster in New England, absolutely no good vibes on offense here. Mac Jones hit the injury report with back spasms, but even if healthy I don’t see the Pats moving the football. I can see using a Hunter Henry or Jakobi Meyers for a great ROI, since they will see their fair share of targets at a discount in salary.

Steelers

The Pittsburgh defense carried the team to an upset on the road in Cincinnati, picking off Burrow four times and recovering a forced fumble. New England should be a walk in the park compared to the defending AFC champs, even without a player of the year T J Watt. Pittsburgh may have to pass more than run in this one after Najee had an ankle stepped on and may see less snaps out of precaution. Diontae Johnson commanded the target share, but I do like Claypool as well, who can also be used in the running game.

Cash: D. Johnson

GPP: H. Henry, J. Meyers, C. Claypool, PIT DST

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 44.5)

Dolphins

Tyreek Hill picked up right where he left off in Kansas City burning cornerbacks (8REC for 94YDS) and seeing plenty of targets (12). On the other side, Waddle took one to the house ( 4 REC or 69YDS and 1 TD). Even though Baltimore does have a solid defense, Tua is sitting pretty. Until we see somebody that can figure out the genius of head coach Mike McDaniels, let’s roll with the fins before they get too pricey.

Ravens

If it was the weather in Jersey or playing without a new contract, Lamar didn’t look to run with the ball. He won’t have a choice in this match-up, Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are two bookends in the Fins’ secondary. Bateman and Duvernay would be a little risky so that would leave Andrews as a much safer target. Hopefully, we get a nice clear cool day for Jackson to stretch his legs in front of a home crowd and show them he needs to be paid.

Update: J. K. Dobbins is not expected to play.

Cash: T. Hill, T.Tagovailoa, L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: J. Waddle

Colts @ Jaguars (+4) 1 p.m. (O/U 46.5)

Colts

Indy barely tied the Texans rallying in the second half behind Michael Pittman’s (9REC/121YDS/1TD) stat line and Jonathon Taylor’s 161 yards rushing, 14 receiving from 4 grabs, and a touchdown as well. Not much to say about the number-one ranked running back paired with an up-and-coming number-one receiver, lock it up. But hold the phone. We may need to pivot to Paris Campbell after Pittman showed up late in the week with a quad injury. Regardless of his price this slate ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) he’s too tempting to pick up. Cash if Pittman sits out, GPP if he plays fellas.

Update: M. Pittman out! Heavy work load for Taylor and P. Campbell time!

Jaguars

The Jags held their own at Washington, putting points on the board. A surprise to that happening was the re-emergence of James Robinson who recovered from a torn Achilles to take back his job from Etienne. Another fact newly signed Christian Kirk is earning his living. Because Jacksonville may again be playing from behind, Kirk could see another 12 targets and catch for over 100 yards, with Zay Jones too who quietly saw 9 targets on 83 % of the snaps.

Cash: J. Taylor, M. Pittman, C. Kirk

GPP: Z. Jones, J. Robinson, P. Campbell (Cash if Pittman plays)

Commanders @ Lions (-2.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 49.5)

Commanders

Wentz gets another great match-up on paper in Detroit, who gave up 38 points to Philadelphia last week. We just can’t ignore that he threw for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns against Jacksonville, yet still priced under $6K on DraftKings. It was nice to see Curtis Samuel get back into the mix again (20 PPR FPTS.) finally, who is a head coach Ron Rivera favorite and will stay on the field. ‘Scary’ Terry McClaurin was quiet as the rookie Johan Dotson scored twice, but we may see the roles reverse this week as he lines up across Amani Oruwariye, who was annihilated by A J Brown. But my favorite take on this team is how they used Antonio Gibson, Wentz checked it down to him for 7 grabs and he rushed for just over 4 YPC, owning over 64 % of the snaps.

Lions

Detroit showed us some heart and won’t go down without a fight. Goff will have another shoot-out with Wentz as both teams struggle to play defense. Everyone can eat again in the Silver Dome, especially Amon Ra, who will draw the same coverage from Christian Kirk’s incredible game last week. If it really heats up, Chark may show up in a big game too. Swift did not practice today with an ankle injury, will keep you updated, might be a Jamaal Williams day again without the vulturing.

Cash: A. Gibson, A. St.-Brown, T. McClaurin, J. Williams ( if Swift is out or limited, otherwise tournament move)

GPP: J. Goff, C. Wentz, C. Samuel, D. Chark,

Falcons @ Rams (-10.5) 4:05 p.m. (O/U 47)

Falcons

Atlanta looked fresh before collapsing in the second half to the Saints in the opener. The run-heavy Arthur Smith offense was led by Mariota and Cordarrelle Patterson and very effectively. But if the Rams get up to a big lead early, Mariota will be forced to play catch-up. A nice bounce-back spot for Pitts who was on a milk carton in week one. I wouldn’t attempt any Atlanta in cash games, strictly tournaments guys. If this game gets out of hand, we may see the backups out in the second half.

Rams

Get ready for a blood bath at SoFy Stadium. McVay was taking a beating all week from the LA press on how bad his team looked at home. He will have all the troops fired up including Allen Robinson who the Rams fans almost called an Amber Alert for. Stafford, Kupp, and Henderson are also a lock here, fade Akers for now until he’s out of the doghouse.

Cash: M, Stafford, C. Kupp, A. Robinson, D. Henderson

GPP: M. Mariota, C. Patterson, K. Pitts

Seahawks @ 49ERS (-10) 4:05 p.m. (O/U 42.5)

Seahawks

Genoooo…. The veteran had an excellent game, but not for a DFS Millimaker. Smith only threw for 195 yards and two touchdowns and added 18 yards rushing. The volume just is nowhere to be seen yet anywhere in Seattle, salaries need to drop on DK Metcalf and Lockett before I consider anything. Penny has shown some signs of burst, but I just don’t like the match-up. I’m going to stay away from Seattle on the road in a division game.

49ERS

Give Lance another chance. Soldier field was a giant slip-n-slide in a hurricane. Eli Mitchell fell on IR from the conditions most likely, so next man up is Jeff Wilson by default. Lance and Deebo will get involved in the run-game as well, Deebo being the best option. It’s looking like no Kittle again, dude can’t catch a break, Aiyuk would see an uptick in volume if in fact he can’t suit up.

Update: G. Kittle doubtful

Cash: D. Samuel, J. Wilson

GPP: T. Lance, B. Aiyuk

Bengals @ Cowboys (+8.5) 4:25 p.m. (O/U 42.5)

Bengals

Burrow will get his revenge for a poor 4 interception home opener. Ja’Maar Chase will see a lot of Trevon Diggs who gives up way too many big yardage plays, something Chase will exploit. Mixon will be money in the bank too, who will see all the goal line work and carries to chew up the clock. Stacking Mixon with the Cincinnati DST, Cooper Rush under center….I can’t scroll fast enough!

Cowboys

Last Halloween Rush actually did have a solid game, beating the Vikes with a (325 YDS/2TD/1INT) stat line, not bad. Cee Dee Lamb will get safety help and suffocated again, which may leave Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz open combining for a total of 18 targets in which they saw facing Tampa. Let’s stick to a GPP for Dallas, starters may get pulled if the game gets out of reach.

Cash: J. Chase, J. Burrow, J. Mixon, Bengals DST

GPP: D. Schultz, N. Brown

Texans @ Broncos (-10) 4:25 p.m. (O/U 46.5)

Texans

Houston facing a double-digit spread on the road and odds-makers are not giving the rebuilding Texans a chance. Davis Mills their second-year signal caller does take care of the ball, and may give Denver a run for their money. Don’t be too quick to shoot down rookie running back Dameon Pierce too soon. Denver’s front formations favor opposing backs in order to take away the deep ball. Coach Lovey Smith is old school, if he chooses to play “keep away” from Wilson he will look to utilize Pierce.

Broncos

Russell Wilson will be much better at Mile High against the young Texans and will be ready to cook. Getting beat in Seattle in front of his old teammates had to sting, believe me, he’ll make a statement this weekend. Courtland Sutton will look like a god by being shadowed by rookie Derek Stingley Jr. who allowed the Colts’ Michael Pittman ( 9 REC/121YDS/1TD) to look like Marvin Harrison. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon may both get a goal-line carry in this spot and pretty much anyone in orange is viable.

Cash: R. Wilson, C. Sutton, J. Williams

GPP: J. Jeudy, M. Gordon

Cardinals @ Raiders (-6) 4:25 p.m. (O/U 51.5)

Cardinals

Murray and the Cards are looking at 0-2 to start the season as a touchdown dog in Vegas. A win would need him to step up and the Raiders are easily beaten through the air. Chargers QB Justin Herbert lit them up ( 279 YDS and 3 TDs). Murray has that same capability and will need some help from his deep-threat college teammate Marquise Brown. Running back James Connor has been a big part of Arizona’s scheme and will definitely get a sizable role again in this Sin-City battle.

Raiders

Derek Carr has to be my go-to QB this week. Mid-range salary ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) that won’t break the bank, high ceiling, and a game script with shoot-out written all over it. He’s linked to top 5 receiver Davante Adams and tight end Darren Waller. Plus with running back specialist Brandon Bolden missing practice, Josh Jacobs should see most of the snaps and goal-line work. Finally, I think we see a bit more of Hunter Renfrow this game. He has the skill set and saw 84% of the snaps, it’s only a matter of when Josh McDaniels throws him a bone.

Cash: K. Murray, D. Carr, M. Brown, D. Adams, J. Connor, D. Waller

GPP: J. Jacobs, H. Renfrow

Cash Core 4

D. Carr/D. Adams/J. Mixon/M. Andrews

GPP Core 4

C. Wentz /T. McClaurin /J. Wilson/K. Pitts

Stacks

K.Murray / M. Brown (ARI); D. Carr / D. Adams / D. Waller (LV); R. Wilson / C. Sutton / J. Jeudy; (DEN)

J. Goff / A. St. Brown / D. Swift (if healthy) (DET); C. Wentz / T. McClaurin / A. Gibson (WSH)

J. Burrow / J. Chase / J. Mixon (CIN)

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stix Picks: Week 1 NFL DFS GPP Lineups for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” The NFL season is here and it feels like Christmas morning. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. All that summer prep and season long drafts are done, it’s go time.

In addition, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2022 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. This will USUALLY not be an article where I write a lot about Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, etc… they’re likely always in a smash spot and worth rostering if that’s what your build calls for. Now, let’s get into it.

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $8,700 FD)

Patrick Mahomes under 10% in ownership projections is always something I’ll be interested in, let’s just say that to start. A lot of the DFS and fantasy community as a whole seem to be a bit down on Patrick Mahomes just because there’s no more Tyreek Hill. In my opinion, this is the most quality depth of pass catchers Mahomes has ever had and the AETY Model is expecting another monster year out of Mahomes.

In the model and any sportsbook you look at, Mahomes has the highest passing yard prop on the slate, by a decent margin going up against a brutal, Arizona secondary and an arguably worse pass rush now that Chandler Jones went to Las Vegas. I expect the Chiefs’ offense as a whole to come out with a bang (like they usually always do to start the season) and Mahomes to be the clear-cut QB1 on this slate. Bundle all of that, a slate-leading total (54 points), and a 6-8% ownership projection and we’re cooking with gas.

Stacking Options: Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Run-Back Options: Marquise Brown, James Conner, Trey McBride (if Zach Ertz is out, obviously, Ertz if he goes)

Trevor Lawrence ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD)

It wouldn’t be my style to not include a dumpster-dive 1% owned, cheap quarterback, so here we go. I’m going to have a good bit of exposure to Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars passing attack this weekend for the following reasons:

New Coaching Staff – Doug Pederson is one of the more pass-happy play callers in the NFL. Despite the obvious downside with Lawrence, the expected volume should be there.
New Weapons – the additions of Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram should greatly impact Lawrence’s ability to move the football despite a very weak offensive line.
Leverage! Leverage! Leverage! – The whole DFS world is lining up to play the Commanders defense, despite Chase Young being on the PUP list. If and when the Jaguars offense scores points, you’re not only getting incredibly low-owned NFL DFS GPP production, you’re passing the majority of the field as they lose points. There are very few weeks of the season where the AETY Model will tell us to stack against the nut-chalk defense… this week is one of them!

Yes, it’s more than likely Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars lay an egg on Sunday, but at 1% ownership, I’ll heavily consider starting my NFL DFS GPP lineups with Lawrence (especially in the early-only slate) and getting exposure to a safer, higher-upside quarterback in my cash game lineup.

Stacking Options: Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, Travis Etienne, Evan Engram
Run-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Jahan Dotson

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Mitch Trubisky, Davis Mills

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

This is likely the best matchup on the slate for a running back: in the dome, against a Falcons’ unit that likely has the worst defensive line in football. On DraftKings specifically, we get the pass catching upside (the AETY Model projects Kamara for over 4 receptions, 35 yards receiving, and the team’s third highest equity in the red-zone passing game) which is always a nice benefit. As long as this game stay’s close (currently a 5-point spread), Kamara should be in for a NFL DFS GPP field day under offensive guru Pete Carmichael’s offense paired with an ownership projection under 10%.

P.S. we likely do not have to worry about Sean Payton’s ridiculous obsession with getting Taysom Hill touches in the red-zone anymore. This is Kamara’s job.

James Conner ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD)

With Rondale Moore out, the AETY Model seems to now love the floor and ceiling for James Conner’s role in the passing game. This was already my favorite game to stack and now we’ll add another piece to the back-and-forth with a 3-down back who’s going to be a focal point of the Cardinals’ offense.

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

It’s not the best of matchups; he isn’t the safest of players in terms of health; he’s not “under the radar”… I’m still going to take the bait on the seriously low price-tag of a 3-down, pass-catching back in an improved offense. I simply look at it this way, play Saquon Barkley when he’s healthy and play Saquon Barkley when he’s cheap. There is not a whole lot of data to support going all-in on Barkley, but I trust Brian Daboll to find a way to get his best player the football early and often.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

If you read the Mahomes’ section of the NFL DFS GPP Week 1 article (and more below), you’ll know I’m all in Kansas City Chiefs. The Arizona Cardinals defense is brutal on paper and I highly doubt they will exceed my already low expectations. This game is going to be a shoot-out and I do trust Andy Reid to lean on Edwards-Helaire for around 60-65% of the snaps. I NEED to have exposure to the AETY Model’s highest expected scoring offense in every way that I can. If it isn’t Mahomes throwing for a touchdown, it will be a CEH rushing touchdown (maybe a passing TD to Edwards-Helaire if we’re really lucky).

The price-tag is just way too low for a guy with significant touchdown equity on the best offense in football… and he’s going to be around 5% owned.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Joe Mixon, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, AJ Dillon, Eli Mitchell

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)

If Adams were still on the Packers, he’d be projected for 20% or higher ownership in this matchup, but he’s sitting at 10-12% now. The Chargers are likely to play a ton of zone coverage and Davante Adams kills zone coverage. The red-zone equity may go down a little bit due to Rodgers’ not peppering him with 2 targets minimum on every red-zone opportunity, but the volume will be there for Adams. He’s projected to lead this slate in receiving (surprise to no one), according to the AETY Model.

Deebo Samuel (7,400 DK / $8,400 FD)

We don’t need to get to into detail here, Deebo Samuel is one of the best fantasy football players. He’s going to be under 10% owned in an absolute cakewalk matchup. Trey Lance will be forced to get Deebo Samuel involved in the passing game and we already know the rushing upside. He signed his contract and he’s ready to roll and roll!

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

Getting exposure to the Chargers @ Raiders game is probably priority number two for me this weekend (second to KC/AZ), and I’ll likely be starting said exposure with Keenan Allen or Austin Ekeler. I always love Keenan Allen inside against the Raiders’ zone defense where he’ll face off against a young, unproven, Nate Hobbs. Keenan Allen still has PLENTY of game left in him and we’ll see it on Sunday.

Tyreek Hill ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD)

Sub $7,000 on DraftKings for Tyreek Hill is incredibly attractive. Mike McDaniel simply abuses his number one offensive threat on a weekly basis and this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Not to mention Tua’s love to key on one receiver almost exclusively (last year we were fine paying $7,000 for Jaylen Waddle)… this year, that is Tyreek Hill. Better yet, this New England Patriots’ secondary is absolute trash and they’re likely going to play a ton of man coverage. Good luck, Patriots!

Christian Kirk ($5,100 DK / $5,800 FD)

Similar to the Lazard situation, but not quite to that extent… Christian Kirk is the clear WR1 on the Jaguars, and yet he’s priced like a mid-tier WR2 (I understand the situation isn’t sexy, but the price is). This matchup is absolutely one to get excited about as Washington nickel-corner, Brandon St. Juste, is arguably the worst cornerback in the NFL. On the other side of things, I don’t see Jacksonville putting up much of a fight on defense, which can lead to a low-key, disgusting shootout for NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Chase Claypool ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

After further review and hearing more skepticism about Diontae Johnson’s health, I’m going to officially name my 1% owned NFL DFS GPP Wide Receiver of the Week, Chase Claypool. The gamescript should be incredibly positive for Claypool with or without Diontae Johnson and we need to take advantage of the tunnel-vision Mitch Trubisky has for his big bodied receivers (and a love for slot receivers). Trubisky will want to move the ball deep down field (he always has) and trust the ability of the monster, Claypool to go up and get it.

Assuming they move Claypool all across the formation, we’ll get a lot of Claypool with a 7-inch advantage on nicker corner, Mike Hilton. As long as the Bengals come out firing and move Pittsburgh into a more pass-heavy approach, Claypool is a steal at these price-tags.

Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DK / $5,400 FD)

HOMER ALERT! Lol, if any of you have followed me before, you know I’ve had a man crush on Mecole Hardman. Yes, he’s let me down 99 times out of 100, but I truly believe he is the only wide receiver on this roster who can handle the vacant route tree of Tyreek Hill. No, he’s not Tyreek Hill, but he doesn’t need to be at this price. The Cardinals’ secondary is absolute trash and Hardman will be schemed to take advantage of every one of them as he’s moved all around the field. Hardman will be the WR1 for Kansas City in Week 1.

Honorable Mention: Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin, AJ Brown, Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Nico Collins, Joshua Palmer, Marquise Brown

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

I’m going to be quite heavy on Travis Kelce, but I do not think he is a “must-have” in terms of salary. Here are the others I’ll be focusing on rostering.

Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)
Kyle Pitts ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD)
Darren Waller ($5,400 DK ONLY)
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
Brevin Jordan ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Stix Picks: Week 1 NFL DFS GPP Lineups for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DK / $8,700 FD)

Trevor Lawrence ($5,600 DK / $7,000 FD)

New Coaching Staff – Doug Pederson is one of the more pass-happy play callers in the NFL. Despite the obvious downside with Lawrence, the expected volume should be there.
New Weapons – the additions of Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram should greatly impact Lawrence’s ability to move the football despite a very weak offensive line.
Leverage! Leverage! Leverage! – The whole DFS world is lining up to play the Commanders defense, despite Chase Young being on the PUP list. If and when the Jaguars offense scores points, you’re not only getting incredibly low-owned NFL DFS GPP production, you’re passing the majority of the field as they lose points. There are very few weeks of the season where the AETY Model will tell us to stack against the nut-chalk defense… this week is one of them!

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

James Conner ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD)

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,100 DK / $8,500 FD)

Deebo Samuel (7,400 DK / $8,400 FD)

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

Tyreek Hill ($6,800 DK / $7,700 FD)

Christian Kirk ($5,100 DK / $5,800 FD)

Chase Claypool ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD)

Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DK / $5,400 FD)

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

I’m going to be quite heavy on Travis Kelce, but I do not think he is a “must-have” in terms of salary. Here are the others I’ll be focusing on rostering.

Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)
Kyle Pitts ($5,700 DK / $6,000 FD)
Darren Waller ($5,400 DK ONLY)
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
Brevin Jordan ($3,100 DK / $4,800 FD)

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Premium

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Welcome back to the NFL season, we have a loaded 13-game slate to chop up! Hey everybody I’m Joe DiCarlo, a new addition to the WinDailySports.com DFS writing squad, and welcome to my NFL Week One breakdown! I’m happy to be on board and ready to help you build some money-making lineups. After a long and busy offseason around the league, so let’s start analyzing these games…

Sunday Main Slate 9/11/22

Eagles @ Lions, 1 p.m. (+4) (O/U 49)

Eagles

The Eagles are in Detroit for what looks to be a slam dunk for Jalen Hurts to show off his new skill set and shiny new receiver A. J. Brown. Great stack, especially for cash games. Tight end Dallas Goedert will be in play too, since Hurts prefers throwing to the big fellas. We could also see a sprinkle of Devonta Smith but I think he is just a little too priced up, let’s not carried away. I’m fading running back Miles Sanders, he’s banged up with a hamstring, plus I’m feeling a Kenny Gainwell breakout this year. His salary is too cheap to pass up, and could easily produce three times his value against Detroit.

Lions

The Lions’ defense may still look bad on paper, but they will still put points on the scoreboard. Having one of the strongest O’lines in the league will help running back D’Andre Swift get back to the fantasy promise land again. PPR machine Amon-Ra St. Brown racked up double-digit targets in the final six games last season and quarterback Jared Goff came out saying he is his now go-to guy. To complete the trifecta is T. J. Hockenson if he can stay on the field. Goff loves to check it down and his tight end could benefit from it.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, A. J. Brown, Dallas Goedert

GPP: Kenny Gainwell, Amon-Ra St. Brown

Saints @ Falcons, 1 p.m. (+5.5) (O/U 42.5)

Saints

New Orleans looks to be at full strength on offense to start the year and will be getting eased back in facing Atlanta. Jameis Winston should do well in his first game back from an ACL tear, the Falcons bled out close to 4,000 air yards and 31 passing touchdowns in 2021. Receivers have a sweet match-up especially Michael Thomas, ($5,700 DK/$6,200 FD) but he’s a little risky since he hasn’t suited up in over a year and a half. But Alvin Kamara you can set and forget as one of your RB’s. He’s in one of the most smash spots this weekend projected to hit at least 20 FPTS.

Falcons

Atlanta has a futures win total (O/U 4.5) across many of the sportsbooks…news flash, they are tanking in 2022! For this matchup, I’m out on everybody for DFS. Maybe a sprinkle of a little Kyle Pitts, the only proven pass-catcher on the squad. I can’t trust Marriota’s legs yet, especially against a Saints’ number-one-ranked run defense that averaged only 3.7 YPA. I can’t resist that he’s just so inexpensive, and in a game as a such a huge dog, tremendous value can be made from Mariota even in garbage time.

Cash: A. Kamara, Saints DST

GPP: J. Winston, M. Thomas, K. Pitts, M. Mariota

Jaguars @ Commanders, 1 p.m. (-3) (O/U 44)

Jaguars

Year two for Trevor Lawrence will begin in Washington under new head coach Doug Pederson, who will look to reignite the dreadful offense in Jacksonville. Christian Kirk was also signed in free agency and got a huge multi-year (overpaid) contract, so he should see most of Lawrence‘s targets. Now that running back James Robinson has been given the green light for Week One, the Travis Etienne hype train has pumped its breaks for a minute. I’m out on the Jags except for TE, he’s worth the flyer at ($5,600 DK/$6,200 FD). Him and Trevor had a bro-mance going on back at Clemson and we may see Etienne get peppered with check-downs out of the backfield.

Commanders

Washington has something to be excited about this year… a slight upgrade at QB and a team name finally! Carson Wentz will start for his third team in three years and I just don’t feel any good vibes yet, but come on Jacksonville? The same team that pulled off the biggest upset of the year and cost him his job. Best believe Wentz will be out and ready to roll, way too cheap and a flyer for GPP. Rookie Johan Dotson has already formed some chemistry with him and has already solidified a starting spot. After all the chatter around Washington about Bryan Robinson, I can see Antonio Gibson playing with a chip on his shoulder. This week up against one of the worst run-defenses of 2021 (24th overall against the run; 125 rushing YPG.), Gibson will have a second chance to prove himself worthy of being the top back in town.

Cash: Antonio Gibson, T. Etienne

GPP: Johan Dotson, C. Wentz, T. Lawrence

Colts @ Texans, 1 p.m. (+ 8) ( O/U 45.5)

Colts

Indy traded away a third-round draft pick for a bargain with veteran QB Matt Ryan. Opposing defenses will have to respect the Colts’ passing game even more, which should open up the box for bell cow running back Jonathon Taylor. Given the eight-point spread and the Texans’ reputation for spilling out points, the Colts will lean on the run. A few darts I like are tight-end Mo Alie-Cox and rookie wide-out Alec Pierce, although the Colts’ alpha Michael Pittman will line up across from rookie Derek Stingley Jr.and is way under-priced, lock him up as a WR.

Texans

Sophomore quarterback Davis Mills could be chasing a double-digit lead by the Colts at halftime and forced to throw. But go-to guy Brandin Cooks may see a lot of Colts’ veteran corner Stephon Gilmore, sending Second-year receiver Nico Collins more balls in his direction. I didn’t forget about Houston’s stand-out rookie Dameon Pierce, leave him alone for the opener. Houston will be playing from behind mostly and forced to throw it more, and Rex Burkhead is their passing-down back for now.

Cash: J. Taylor, M. Pittman

GPP: N. Collins, M. Alie-Cox, A. Pierce

Browns @ Panthers 1 p.m. (-2.5)(O/U 41.5)

Browns

We gotta love the NFL and their scheduling… Browns will face their former number-one overall pick, Baker Mayfield, after deciding on Deshaun Watson in the off-season. Don’t get me wrong, I love the Baker revenge game narrative, but I feel Cleveland will show up to play some solid defense. Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney will show up and keep Mayfield honest in this reunion. I predict low ownership for the Browns DST, sweet for GPP. And by the way, are we serious with Jacoby Brissett? Week 13 can not get here any soon for Watson to suit up. I have no interest this week in anybody on offense for Cleveland… Gimme Carolina’s D!

Panthers

We all knew Baker would win the job in Carolina and he deserves it. He’s not known for his numbers really, it’s his competitiveness. But the numbers will align this Sunday, he is way underpriced for one of the biggest games of his career. He’s got one of the most efficient receivers in D J Moore and the most electrifying players in the game of Christian McCaffrey at his disposal. Baker will look to put on a show and these two will benefit 100 percent.

Cash: C. McCaffrey, D. Moore, Carolina DST

GPP: B. Mayfield, Browns DST

Ravens @ Jets 1 p.m. (+7) (O/U 44.5)

Ravens

Let’s get one thing straight… the Ravens want to run the ball, but they have NOBODY to hand the ball off to. Kenyon Drake, Mike Davis? Is Dobbins going to be ready this week? Nope. Baltimore’s RB1 is Lamar Jackson, period. everyone else in the backfield since he took over has been second fiddle. The Jets were horrid against the run last year (24th, 125 YPG.) Don’t try to be cute and slip Mike Davis in your lineups either, not worth the risk if you ask me. Jackson will still have to throw too, and why not to his favorite target who finished in 2021 as TE1, Mark Andrews. Baltimore could have struck gold in the draft with rookie tight end Isaiah Likely, who had an awesome training camp and preseason…($2,500 on DK is a no-brainer) Second-year receiver Rashod Bateman should also see an uptick in usage, but he may have New York’s first round pick Sauce Gardner shadowing him.

Jets

New York is still not 100 percent on who will be starting at quarterback yet, I’m leaning towards Joe Flacco and the Jets do not want to rush Zach Wilson back too soon from surgery. Flacco is so priced down and I would throw him in a GPP. Starting at home against his former team where he won Super Bowl MVP, we just need 15 FPTS. to hit value. He would be surrounded by young talent, so Zach please sit this one out.

Update: Zach ruled out!

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: Joe Flacco, I. Likely

Pats @ Dolphins 1 p.m. (-3) (O/U 47)

Patriots

Former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels landed a head coaching gig in Vegas, so here comes Joe Judge and Matt Patricia to the rescue. Head coach Bill Belichick never reveals anything to the public, so we can only speculate on their drafts and roster moves. Fellas it looks to me the only safe play is Mac Jones as a cheap GPP for now, but with so many other ways to go this week, why stress over drafting a Patriot in DFS? You could also go Rhamondre Stevenson too, with him in the news as getting all the passing down work and Damien Harris in his last year of his contract. A DeVante Parker revenge game in the mix perhaps? At ($4,800 DK/$5,700 FD) sure why not…even better without Byron Jones already ruled out.

Dolphins

Many eyes will be on QB Tua Tagolvailoa on Sunday afternoon. Forty-Niners’ former O.C. Mike McDaniel brought over some serious talent, trading for Tyreek Hill to line up opposite second-year sensation Jaylen Waddle, who may be still slightly banged up. The Cheetah (Hill) will hold the lion-share of the action for Miami if Waddle is not fully healed. The Pats also have a lot of inexperience in the secondary, Tyreek and Tua will look to exploit them in the open field. If you believe in the talent around Tua than you have to like him overall.

Cash: T. Hill

GPP: T. Tagovailoa, D. Parker, R. Stevenson, M. Jones,

Niners @ Bears 1 p.m.(+7) (O/U 41.5)

49ers

San Fran is rolling out with Trey Lance to take over the reigns for Jimmy G finally, but I feel he will have a few growing pains in his debut as the starter. Trey will need to get Deebo the ball if the Niners want to put any points on the board. Samuel is risky this week in what looks like a low-scoring game, but he is the centerpiece of this offense. The Bears have made some improvements on defense, stocking up in the draft and free-agency. Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn are still in town and will be waiting for their shot at Lance too. Another team I’d like to wait and see what happens before I invest in DFS, let’s be patient guys and gals.

Bears

Now everything I just wrote above, this Bears DST is smelling pretty good right? Trey Lance’s first start on the road at Soldier Field, I can see picks and sacks all day. But than Chicago has their own problems developing at the QB position with Justin Fields. He can easily have as bad a day as Lance against the Niners, who are no slouches on defense either. Pick your poison I’m fine with either or defenses, Chicago is extremely cheaper ($2,200 on DK, $3,800 on FD)

Update: G. Kittle may sit out

Cash: D. Samuel

GPP: Bears DST, 49ERS DST,

Steelers @ Bengals 1 p.m. (-6.5) (O/U 44.5)

Steelers

Pittsburgh named Trubisky as their starter with less than a week until the season opener, and he gets the defending AFC champs on the road. YIkes, way too many unknowns again here in this game. We still know that Steeler O-Line is shaky, so Mitch will need to use his legs or get rid of the ball fast. Guys, he, is dirt cheap ($5,000 DK/$6,400 FD).He will produce in fantasy because of his scrambling ability, let’s try him in a GPP. The Bengals as your defense would be pretty sneaky too, they have been very underrated and given a lot of headaches to opposing offenses all last year. Tight end Pat Freiermuth did look good catching 5 balls for 80 yards in August, and he is affordable on both formats too. If Mitch has to get rid of it quickly, Freiermuth could be a PPR hero.

Bengals

Cincinnati announced that franchise quarterback will be a go to start the season after having an emergency appendectomy in late July. The bad news is that as much as I like Joe Burrow, we can’t justify paying his mid-range salary against a divisional opponent. Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are all in the same boat, too expensive to start. Oh…well what about the new tight end in town Hayden Hurst? He is definitely on my radar at that discount ($3,300 on DK, $4,900 on FD).

Cash: Pat Freiermuth

GPP: Hayden Hurst, Bengals DST, M. Trubisky

Chiefs @ Cardinals 4:25 p.m.(+4.5) (O/U 54)

Chiefs

Here we go, now we’re talking with a 54 point total, a shoot-out in the desert! Mahomes and his new entourage of receivers want to come out guns blazing in this match-up. 159 targets left for Miami when they traded Tyreek Hill, so we love Kelce even more this year. Totally comfortable paying up on this stack. As for the new faces Ju Ju, MVS, and the rookie Skyy Moore, we can make it a double stack with a side of CEH. Across the board their price tags are reasonable, but just don’t get too carried away.

Cardinals

Kyler Murray got his pay day this off-season, it’s showtime. The former number one overall pick in 2019 has his work cut out for him this Sunday and will need to keep up the pace with Mahomes. He’s not as weaponized and will need some help from James Connor in the ground game. KC has been suspect to the rush, and in PPR, Connor could benefit this game. Murray himself could scurry for chunks of runs which he’s been famous for.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, CEH, J. Smith-Schuster, K. Murray, J. Connor

GPP: MVS, S. Moore

Packers @ Vikings 4:25 p.m. (+1.5) (O/U 48)

Packers

Can the back-to-back reigning MVP return to greatness again without his main man Davante Adams? The water is still a little muddy in Green Bay for who will be favored by Aaron Rodgers. He has a couple rookies in Watson and Doubs, over-the-hill guys in Watkins and Cobb, Tonyan coming off an ACL, and Allen Lazard who recently started missing practice. In cash I’m not getting the warm and fuzzies from any of them, only Rodgers alone(super sneaky for a GPP). A little history from not too long ago, before Adams emerged on the scene The Pack were pretty run-heavy. Their O-line today is one of the best in the NFL, so they may just rip a page out of from 2015. Aaron Jones and A J Dillon probably the best one-two punch there is and Green Bay may utilize it until the passing game clears up.

Vikings

Minnesota hired the Rams’ O.C. Kevin O’Connell as their new head coach this off-season, who plans on opening up the passing game. So much hype is over Justin Jefferson becoming the 2022 version of Cooper Kupp and the kid has the talent to make it happen. Going up against one of the best corners Jaire Alexander and in a new offensive scheme, we can’t risk all that salary this time. Pivotting to Adam Thielen may be the smarter play here, who is cheaper and viable in the red-zone.

Cash: A. Jones

GPP: A. Rodgers, A. Dillon, A. Thielen

Giants @ Titans 4:25 p.m. (-5.5) (O/U 43.5)

Giants

New York made some changes in the front office and at head coach by signing Brian Dabal, Buffalo’s former O.C. who molded the number one QB Josh Allen. So will Daniel Jones be the next Allen? For his measly salary, he’s worth the risk. 3X value is foreseeable against this Tennessee defense (25th in PaYDA/G in 2021) Saquon Barkley has been pumped up by the media, word out of camp is he will be more utilized on offense, especially in the passing game. The salary is mid-range and our model shows him to reach decent value (16.5 DK/14.7 FD FPTS.) Tough match-up though… Number one ranked rushing defense. Let’s hope Dabal keeps his word and throws it to his stud in the backfield.

Titans

After losing to the Bengals and throwing 4 picks in the AFC Wild Card game, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be out for blood. The Giants are even worse this year in their secondary, cutting loose James Bradburry, replacing him with former Titan Adoree Jackson. Derrick Henry is also back at full strength, and is set to regain his seat at the throne, owning all the goal line work.Tennessee could get up to a comfy lead in this one, and he’ll be used to eat up that clock.

Cash: D. Henry, S. Barkley

GPP: R. Tannehill, D. Jones

Raiders @ Chargers 4:25 p.m. (-3.5) (O/U 52.5)

Raiders

Gotta love the league and the way they schedule, a rematch of the sudden death game that put Vegas into the playoffs back in January. Derek Carr led the way to victory last season, but this time he is bringing more to the table…his college buddy Davante Adams. This game needs no intro, get these two in a stack, and let’s not forget about Waller, the Chargers were dead last defending the tight end in 2021. We like all three here and have them locked in for 3X value.

Chargers

LA lost that game on bad play calling, not by their performance by any means. Justin Herbert and company have been counting down the days to sink their teeth into this lousy Raider defense again. Keenan Allen is up in age but showing no signs of regression. Mike Williams got paid and has a huge ceiling. Ekeler will ball out as usual with his safe floor. It’s ON in LA to cap off the afternoon.

Cash/GPP: J. Herbert, K. Allen, M. Williams, A. Ekeler, D. Adams, D. Carr, D. Waller

Cash Core 4

A. Kamara, L. Jackson, T. Kelce, T. Hill

GPP Core 4

A. Rodgers, P. Freiermuth, D J Moore, A J Dillon

Stacks

P. Mahomes/T. Kelce J. Herbert/K.Allen/M.Williams B. Mayfield/D. Moore/CMC

D. Carr/D. Adams/D. Waller

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord hit me up @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown

We’ve come to the final slate of the season and we can’t very well call it a game-by-game breakdown when there is only one, so this article will be set up more like a showdown article since that is the format we have to play. The Rams face the Bengals on Sunday and the builds will be challenging on DraftKings since the best player for fantasy is a crazy amount of money, but that’s what the NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown is for!

Rams at Bengals, O/U of 48.5 (Rams -4)

Captain Picks

Cooper Kupp – It’s hard to mount an argument that says Kupp will not have the highest score on the slate, as he averaged 28.2 DK points during the season to this point and nobody is within 5.8 points of that. Kupp has been dominating and consistent, racking up over 2,300 receiving yards in his 20 games and securing 170 receptions. He’s playing around half the snaps in the slot and that is a significant mismatch against Mike Hilton and/or Eli Apple. They both allowed over a 103 passer rating and a catch rate over 69% to go along with 1.65 points per target. Kupp is up to 20 touchdowns on the season and has seen right about 11 targets on average per game. I would not be making a lineup without him on Sunday, be it in the captain spot or just a flex spot.

Tee Higgins – Since they are the underdog, we should expect the Bengals to have a pass-heavy day and Higgins is $4,200 cheaper than Ja’Marr Chase which is a massive saving. After a total whiff in the Wild Card round with just one reception, Higgins has bounced back with a total of 19 targets, 13 receptions, and 199 yards with no scores. He’s only fur targets behind Chase in the playoffs and has a higher air yards share, not to mention two red-zone and end zone targets. He should see less of Jalen Ramsey for the Rams and Ramsey may not be invincible (ask Mike Evans), that’s still a boost in the individual matchup. The only slight knock is the aDOT of 11.2 yards has been the highest of the receivers in the playoffs and the Bengals offensive line is going to likely struggle against the pass rush. The under the radar candidate is Tyler Boyd with a 4.2-yard aDOT but his target share has only been 13.6% so far. You’d be banking on work funneling toward him with likely no C.J. Uzomah in this game. Boyd would only be a captain pick in MME formats in my eyes.

Cam Akers – It hasn’t been the easiest ride for Akers getting back from his torn Achilles this postseason but he’s been getting the volume and that’s what we’re after with a running back this cheap. He’s racked up 13, 24, and 17 carries so far and the low mark came when he hurt his shoulder in the NFC title game. He was back practicing fully on Thursday and the Bengals have been very leaky on the ground this postseason. They’ve allowed 127.3 rush yards per game and in honesty, they may not be here if Kansas City had just stuck with running the ball in the AFC title game. Akers hasn’t cleared 55 rushing yards but the two-week break had to do him some good and under $10,000 is very interesting on DK. If Darrell Henderson does end up being active, the appeal for Akers lessens just a bit with Sony Michel lurking as well. I wouldn’t be interested in a committee if that’s where the Rams are going.

Kendall Blanton – It certainly seems like Tyler Higbee will miss the game so if we’re looking for a cheaper approach to the captain position, Blanton could be it. He stepped in for Higbee when the latter went down after just 14 snaps in the NFC title game. Blanton went 5/52 on five targets and during the regular season, not tight end had more red-zone targets than 20 for Higbee. If Blanton can get that level of work and just add a touchdown this week, you’re looking at over 20 DK from the captain spot for one of the cheapest players that is viable. This slate is difficult because neither team uses a lot of players in their offense. Things are concentrated on just a few players and they’re all expensive, so Blanton makes sense in any MME format. It also allows for a build with both quarterbacks, Kupp, and a Bengals receiver.

Flex Plays

Ja’Marr Chase – There’s nothing wrong with playing him and Ramsey doesn’t scare me off, but it’s tough to fit Kupp and Chase AND quarterbacks. It leaves for a much more narrow path and you would need multiple value picks to hit.

Quarterbacks – I can’t tell you to you shouldn’t play a quarterback but neither Matthew Stafford nor Joe Burrow has the best chance to be on top of the leaderboard as far as fantasy scores go. Both have negligible rushing upside and historical trends point toward running backs and receivers being the more optimal captain plays on DraftKings with the PPR format. You can squeeze both in with different builds but if you only play one, make sure it makes sense with the receivers you play. You’re fading a quarterback so you’ll need to make the most out of the stack you do play. Stafford will naturally be a little more popular with Kupp and he’s played a little better than Burrow so far.

Odell Beckham Jr. – He’s certainly not washed up and he’s just gotten better as the playoffs have gone, earning four, eight, and then 11 targets. If you do not play Kupp, OBJ is practically a requirement but I don’t know if I have the stomach for that. I’m more likely to play him in a build where I go Rams onslaught WITH Kupp and Stafford.

Joe Mixon – He’s one player I’m having a tougher time getting to just because of the salary and the Rams have shut down the opposing running game so far. They were fifth in DVOA against the run in the regular season and backed it up by allowing under 60 yards rushing per game in the playoffs. He’ll be involved in the passing game with 12 targets through the playoffs but I’m not sure that’s enough to make me pay the salary. I really love the passing games more than the run games for the most part.

Kickers-D/ST – I would be willing to play one of each in any one lineup, such as Evan McPherson or Matt Gay. The Bengals defense has been an underrated story in the playoffs with a total of eight sacks and seven turnovers forced while not allowing more than 24 points. The Rams have been strong as well with five turnovers forced and five sacks but they have the much better matchup against the Bengals offensive line that allowed the most sacks in football.

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS: Super Bowl Game Breakdown and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Conference Finals – Stix Picks

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Let’s get right into it for the Conference Finals NFL DFS slate. This week’s article will simply be a ranking at each position for the players in my DFS player pool.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

Cincinnati @ Kansas City (-7) / TOTAL (53.5)
San Francisco @ Los Angeles (-3.5) / TOTAL (45.5)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes – regardless of price, Mahomes will be my quarterback this week on all NFL DFS formats. There’s no one on the slate with his floor or his upside. The rushing upside of late is also an added bonus to the best quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes dictates the outcome of this game and is gamescript proof in a game with a significantly higher expected pace than the late game in LA.

Ownership projections have Patrick Mahomes sitting around 45% owned and I think that’s about 20% too low. 55% of the field is in a rough path to the leaderboards if they’re going to fade Mahomes.

Honorable Mention: Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford

NFL DFS Running Backs

Joe Mixon – the obvious number one back on this slate is Joe Mixon. He’s the only running back on this slate with 20+ carry upside out of the backfield and 5+ receptions in the passing game. Like many, the Bengals will need to control the pace the best they can to keep Mahomes off the field as their offensive line simply cannot handle a shootout pace like we saw the Bills do last week. The Chiefs’ defensive line is healthy and will certainly limit what Mixon can do on the ground, but I’m most interested in Mixon due to his passing game abilities, especially against a heavy blitz team like the Chiefs.

Projected ownership: 5%
Elijah Mitchell – like the Bengals, the only hope the 49ers have is to control the pace of this game and have it play out at a snail’s pace with 25+ carries for Elijah Mitchell. I don’t love taking opposing running backs against the Rams but on a two-game slate, there’s not many options. Mitchell is a fine play who may certainly be game-scripted out a bit if the Rams jump on it early.

Projected ownership: 35%
Cam Akers – it appears that Sean McVay has officially given Cam Akers the keys to the Rams’ backfield castle while giving him over 80% of the snaps for 20 carries last week (Sony Michel 20% and just three touches). I do think we’ll see a bit more Michel this week if the Rams get ahead by two scores early (I think they do), but the price-tag of Akers is too-low to avoid when he’s one of the few running backs who have pass-catching upside.

Projected ownership: 55%

Honorable Mention: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (20% ownership projection), Jerrick McKinnon

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp – best WR option on the NFL DFS slate.

Projected ownership: 45%
Ja’Maar Chase – we talked about Ja’Maar Chase’s success against high-blitz rate teams all season long and there’s no reason to shy away from that now. He’s my clear WR2 on this slate who averaged 24.4 fantasy points per game against the AETY Model’s highest expected blitz rate opponents.

Projected ownership: 35%
Tyreek Hill – not a whole lot to say about Tyreek Hill, besides “thank you” for last week’s performance. Hill can always break a slate and certainly has some excellent matchups every way he lines up against this Bengals’ secondary. I honestly will not have a lot of exposure to him and that scares the hell out of me.

Projected ownership: 50%
Tee Higgins – Higgins’ price is just too low for the expected volume in a game where the Bengals’ will likely be chasing points from the get-go. Like Ja’Maar, Higgins has excelled in all aspects of the game this season but has had some of his better games against high-blitz teams, averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game in those matchups and a relatively higher red-zone share than Ja’Maar Chase. Tee Higgins will have a lot of single coverage with Charvarius Ward, which is something the AETY Model says to attack.

Projected ownership: 35%
Odell Beckham Jr. – Love the upside and pay-down off of Cooper Kupp. Odell Beckham will have a lot of single coverage and we’ve seen the red-zone targets take a massive swing upward of late… at the cheap price-tag, Odell Beckham offers us a lot of NFL DFS upside at significantly less ownership than most of the top tier wideouts on the slate.

Projected ownership: 20%
Deebo Samuel – I’m having a very hard time getting to Deebo Samuel this week after he was significantly banged up against the Packers’ last week and the lack of targets in the passing game. Like Tyreek Hill, he can break the slate and a fade scares me, but I’m likely to fade. He’s a stud and please do not let me scare you away from him… just letting you know where I’m at.

Projected ownership: 35%
Jauan Jennings – Jennings is surprisingly trailing Deebo Samuel by only four targets over the past seven games for the 49ers and is also active in the red-zone packages. With a list full of studs, I needed to add some value to this section of the article and I can’t think of anyone better (besides maybe one of the cheaper KC wideouts) than Jennings. The AETY Model gives a nice upgrade to slot receivers against the Rams and Jennings fits my narrative of the 49ers having to play catch-up to Stafford and the Rams.

Projected ownership: 5%
Byron Pringle – it’s hard to ignore his recent production and he’s a stackable piece to the only quarterback I’ll play this weekend. Pringle is seeing the majority of his work out of the slot and that’s the strong suit for the Bengals’ secondary in Mike Hilton.

Projected ownership: 25%
Mecole Hardman – I’m likely to full fade Byron Pringle in NFL DFS due to the heavy chalk on the “value wideout” and pivot down to Mecole Hardman. Hardman seems to be a feature on the Chiefs’ offense for gadget plays (which he certainly can provide significant upside through), but also running the majority of his snaps on the outside. There should be a handful of opportunities for Hardman to be on the outside in single coverage with one safety behind him (likely to shade towards Kelce/Hill)so… I’m calling for a Hardman long touchdown this weekend. Let’s go.

Projected ownership: 10%

Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk, Tyler Boyd

Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce – clear top tight-end on this NFL DFS slate.

Projected ownership: 50%
George Kittle – Kittle has been a bit of a bust of late but with my projected gamescript of the 49ers playing from behind, this should be an excellent breakthrough spot for Kittle. Starting to love the idea of using both Kelce and Kittle together for the combined red-zone upside and differentiation with two tight-ends.

Projected ownership: 25%

3. CJ Uzomah – at the price, I’ll be very interested in punting down to Uzomah or paring him on the other side of Travis Kelce for a double tight-end build. I want as much exposure to this high-scoring affair as I can get.

Projected ownership: 25%

4. Tyler Higbee – love the red-zone upside, but not a big fan of playing Higbee when Uzomah is cheaper and in an arguably better gamescript.

Projected ownership: 35%

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams, but prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at in my NFL DFS lineups:

Los Angeles Rams
San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend

Adam Strangis 3 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend

Typically Championship Weekend for NFL is one of the best weekends in football but I’m not sure how the four teams left standing can beat last week. Three underdogs won and all four games were won on the last play of the game, with the Chiefs capping it off with a game for the ages. Let’s talk about the two games we have at hand on Sunday to carve the path to green screens in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend!

Bengals at Chiefs, O/U of 54.5 (Chiefs -7)

Bengals

QB – These games are going to be interesting because both are repeats of Week 17 and 18, with the Bengals and 49ers emerging with the win. Joe Burrow torched the Kansas City defense in that game with 446 yards and four touchdowns for a cool 37 DraftKings points. He’s played well in his first taste of the postseason and the only thing missing is touchdowns. He’s had a completion rate over 70% in both games, the 592 yards are strong, and he’s looked totally unfazed by anything happening around him. This game carries a total almost 10 points higher than the second game and that is notable. There is a clear tier of quarterbacks this week and Burrow is in the “second” tier in my eyes, simply because he doesn’t have the same rushing upside as Josh Allen did last week and nobody left in the field is in the tier of Mahomes. With the discount, Burrow is slightly easier to fit and he’s going to have all the chances in the world to throw for well over 300 yards and three touchdowns.

RB – The position as a whole this week is fairly gross and Joe Mixon pretty clearly leads the pack based on how the season has gone to this point. He was top five in carries and he has enough role in the passing game that he can be a weapon even if the Bengals wind up playing from behind (they are seven-point underdogs). He’s seen a total of 12 targets over the two playoff games so far and he’s touched the ball 41 times. Kansas City is weak against the run and has allowed over 80 yards per game so far. They were also 20th in DVOA against the run and allowed the fourth-most receptions to backs. It’s worth noting that when these teams played in Week 17, Mixon had seven receptions on eight targets and that was with the rest of the offense going nuts. I suspect some of the passing options from these games will be popular, leaving little room to pay for a back. That will be fascinating to watch unfold closer to lock.

WR – Ja’Marr Chase has yet to find the paint in the playoffs and still has scored at least 19.1 DraftKings points in each game, making him one of the best targets at the position this week. He nuked the Chiefs defense in Week 17 with over 56 DK points and even though we’re not going to get that again, he’s had 18 targets total and the salary has not been lower than it is this week. We need a lot of exposure to this game and the matchup with Charvarius Ward matters little with Chase. Ward did allow 1.43 points per target and only a 45.2 completion rate but also a 13.0 YPR, right in the wheelhouse for Chase and the downfield passing attack.

I’m very curious to see how the field reacts to the poor game from Stefon Diggs last week. If they transfer that outcome to Chase and make Tee Higgins more popular, I’ll love Chase even more although Higgins is a super strong play as well. Higgins was right with Chase as far as targets all season long and had nine again last week for 16.6 DK points. He also gets to see Rashad Fenton who allowed a 65.1% catch rate on the year, a big difference over Ward. If I’m plying Burrow this week, the odds are I will double stack him with both Chase and Higgins or possibly one of those two and the tight end, but we’ll get there. Tyler Boyd is the clear third wheel among receivers and he’s lagging behind the whole passing game, sitting fifth in targets through the playoffs. L’Jarius Sneed also played most of the slot snaps for KC and allowed 1.50 points per target so there’s room for Boyd to have a game if he actually was getting targeted.

TE – C.J. Uzomah is about as low as we can conceivably go for the position this week and I may well be doing just that. It’s not just the fact that he’s scored at least 14 DraftKings points in the past two games, he’s seen 14 total targets. He only averaged 3.9 targets per game in the regular season and there’s a possibility that KC will be missing Tyrann Mathieu in their defensive backfield on Sunday. Even if he plays, Uzomah has suddenly become a big part of the offense and Burrow has at least 34 attempts in each game, leaving room for him again. If I’m in love with everything else in the lineup, Uzomah isn’t the worst-case scenario.

D/ST – Cincinnati may have finished the year with 42 sacks on the regular season and tacked on another four in the playoffs with five turnovers but I can’t go against the Chiefs in Arrowhead with a defense. Ask Buffalo how that ended last week, and they were the number one defense in almost anything we could have asked for.

Targets – Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Uzomah, Mixon, Boyd

Chiefs

QB – Sometimes all you can do is shake your head and that’s about all we can say for Patrick Mahomes after last week. He threw for 378 yards, ran for 69, accounted for four total scores, and was just in total command of the offense. For a while this year, the Chiefs struggled a bit with two-deep shell defenses but Mahomes and company have grown more patient and let the talent take over. Seeing this Bengals defense within the past month isn’t going to end well in my eyes and the only reason you don’t play Mahomes is the salary involved. It’s nothing crazy but there’s not a ton of easy value plays this week.

RB – We saw Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire split time as expected but it wasn’t reported until Sunday that McKinnon was expected to be the lead. That’s exactly what happened as CEH touched the ball eight times to 15 for McKinnon although CEH did generate 69 scrimmage yards to 78 for McKinnon. The deciding factor is McKinnon is a touch cheaper and he was the clear receiving back, which matters a good deal in PPR settings. That was a major sore spot for the Bengals as well as they were fifth in receptions allowed to backs and if he’s going to get 8-12 carries as well, that’s going to make him a better play than CEH. I’m fully prepared to move this around if we get reports that CEH is going to lead this week, but McKinnon has made some explosive plays in both facets of the game even though he was shut down on the ground last week.

WR – Welcome back to the land of the fantasy living, Tyreek Hill. He went ballistic including a signature touchdown (should have been a flag but I digress) and we could well be in for a repeat this week. It’s basically the same thing as Mahomes that there is nothing wrong with playing Hill, but there are cheaper alternatives that have similar ceilings. What we really love for Hill is he plays close to 40% of his snaps from the slot and that leaves him on Mike Hilton for the Bengals. That is a significant mismatch (most corners are) in the favor of the Chiefs and Hilton allowed a 72.4% catch rate and ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash back in 2016 for the combine. Godspeed, Mike Hilton.

Byron Pringle continued his streak of being useful for fantasy with a touchdown and he does draw Eli Apple in coverage, which isn’t the worst-case scenario. Pringle also has at least seven targets in four of the past five games and that gets your attention at just $4,300. Apple has allowed 13.3 yards per reception this season and 1.60 fantasy points per target so he’s viable as a stacking component or if you decide to not play Hill. Mecole Hardman scored last week but had just one target and two rushing attempts so that’s not something I want to take a chance on. Pringle has been seeing much more reliable volume.

TE – Based on what we saw in the regular season, this could be much of a better spot for Travis Kelce. Cincinnati got gouged by tight ends all year, sitting bottom-five in both receptions and yards and Kelce has at least five receptions, 96 yards, and a touchdown in both playoff games so far this year. Realistically, there is no reason to shy away here as he has the highest upside left of anyone with how each team is playing. He was held in check the first game around but I expect the Chiefs to have solved that puzzle this time and Kelce seems like a sure bet to approach 20 DraftKings Points.

D/ST – The Chiefs aren’t an easy sell here either, as they got smashed last week for a -2 DK score. They only have 35 sacks through 19 games but they have generated 30 turnovers, which helps a bit. The Cincinnati offensive line has struggled through portions of the year, as they did last week with nine sacks allowed. I will say they weren’t all the fault of the offensive line but regardless, I’d much rather pay $200 more for the Rams unit later on in the slate.

Targets – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, McKinnon, Pringle, CEH

Prop to Bet – Joe Burrow Over 286.5 Passing Yards

Game Pick – Chiefs, 38-31

49ers at Rams, O/U of 46 (Rams -3.5)

49ers

QB – I certainly get it, nobody wants to play Jimmy Garoppolo this week. He’s barely over 10 DraftKings points in both playoff games combined so that’s pretty far from ideal. Jimmy G is looking for his first touchdown pass in the postseason and despite averaging 8.6 yards per attempt during the season (second-highest), he’s yet to even pass for 175 yards in a game. It can be worth exploring your options on short slates like this but it’s impossible to say that Garoppolo offers the same upside as the other three options. He averaged six fewer fantasy points than everyone else and is dealing with an injury so, at the minimum, you almost have to find a way to the quarterback on the other side of this game.

RB – It was a slow week for Eli Mitchell last week against the Packers in the cold but I’m not letting that worry me this week. He’s getting a boatload of touches when he’s healthy and the last four weeks it’s been 23, 21, 28, and 20 touches. He is a little bit touchdown-dependent because only six of those touches have been receptions, so the floor is a little lower than we would typically chase. However, only three backfields are based around one back with the Chiefs being the exception and Mixon is pricey compared to the rest of the position. These two teams just played each other in Week 18 and Michell handled over 20 touches with 85 yards rushing, but he didn’t accrue another stat so the DraftKings score was just 8.5. If he finds the end-zone, he has a very strong chance of paying off this week.

WR – I can’t spend on Deebo Samuel this week when he’s more expensive than Hill and Chase but has had fewer than seven targets in every game since Week 9 except for one. It’s great that he’s getting rushing attempts (35 in the past five games) but I’ll take double-digit targets at cheaper prices. Jalen Ramsey has faced him for eight targets this season and Deebo has 3/88/1 total so it’s not that I’m terrified of Ramsey himself. It’s much more the utilization of Deebo compared to the other receivers in his salary tier and his upside doesn’t exactly match, even if it’s not terribly far behind.

Brandon Aiyuk came up with a zero last week on just one target but I’m willing to mostly throw that game out for the elements. If Deebo continues to not be a volume receiver, someone has to get targets in a game where the 49ers are underdogs. Aiyuk’s lone 100-yard game this season came against this secondary and if you want a mid-tier receiver, Aiyuk is high on my list. He was 18th in yards per reception this season and managed to get over 800 yards this year despite being in the doghouse for a long time in the early going.

TE – George Kittle continues to just not do a whole lot so far in the playoffs (or the weeks leading up to it) and it’s confusing when you see how few targets a guy like Deebo is getting. The biggest fear is Kittle has to stay in and help block against that stout defensive line of the Rams but he’s also the only player at the position that can rival the upside of Kelce and he won’t be as popular. In the two games they’ve played, Kittle has a combined 14 targets at has scored a touchdown. It could make for an interesting double tight end build with Kelce or a fade possibly overall, but the floor has been scary.

D/ST – There’s a world where the San Francisco defense can have a good showing fantasy-wise and the Rams offense still plays well, so they are on the board under $3,000. They’ve totaled 10 sacks through two games which is double any team that is left. Both teams have allowed under 300 yards per game to the opposition and the total of this game is way lower. I’d be targeting defenses from this side, even if I don’t expect them to score over 20 DK points again.

Targets – Mitchell, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo, D/ST

Rams

QB – Matthew Stafford might still be laughing at any idea of not being able to perform in a big game. The DVOA for San Francisco was 16th in the league during the year but they also were bottom 10 in completion rate allowed and Stafford has played extremely well in the past two games. The first matchup between these teams saw the 49ers house the Rams but the second game was more competitive and Stafford threw three scores and 238 yards. I’d rather get to Burrow for the game environment but if Stafford is sitting third in popularity, it’s hard not to want to take some shots.

RB – He may have fumbled twice last week but this is now the Cam Akers show and Sony Michel is an afterthought. Akers handled 27 touches last week and sure, the results weren’t great against Tampa. Most running backs don’t have strong games against the Bucs front seven and San Francisco is a tougher spot as well. They were second in DVOA against the run and called the seventh-fewest rushing yards but we simply can’t turn a blind eye to this level of volume at $5,000 flat on DraftKings. Akers is a strong value play and he’s been a little bit involved in the passing game as well with three receptions last week despite the offense crawling into a shell for too long in the second half.

WR – The decision here and one of the biggest decisions on the slate revolves around Cooper Kupp because his upside is incredible and his floor might be the safest of any skill position player. However, he’s at least $1,800 more expensive than Hill and Chase so not only do you need him to pay off the salary but you need him to be a LOT better than those two to make things worth it. My lean is to not go here because the salary is just too steep but of course, Kupp is always in play.

Just like Aiyuk, Odell Beckham makes more sense to me as far as salary involved and getting exposure to something in the offense and he’s coming off seeing eight targets last week. Beckham has scored six times already as a Ram and now we have Van Jefferson listed as questionable and has been limited in practice. That would only help Beckham but it does not seem like a huge worry. Beckham could see Emmanuel Moseley who was excellent this year with 1.09 points per target and a 53.2% each rate but Beckham looks rejuvenated in LA and the salary works to get other star players.

TE – The 49ers have not exactly figured out how to keep Tyler Higbee out of the end zone this year as he’s scored three total touchdowns in the two games. That’s not a great reason to chase Higbee but he is very cheap and he’s seen at least five targets in every game since Robert Woods was lost for the season. He was a red-zone monster the entire way (top-five RZ targets among tight ends) for the Rams even though he’s only scored five total times this season. Higbee could make a stack with Stafford more contrarian if you went Stafford/Kupp or Stafford/OBJ.

D/ST – If I can get there, the Rams are the best overall defense on the slate because they face the clear weakest quarterback. It’s also not going to help San Francisco that tackle Trent Williams is going to play but might be less than 100% even though he dodged a broken bone in his ankle. LA has five sacks through their two games and harassed Tom Brady relentlessly last week, so the only reason stopping playing them is the salary and they’re likely to be the highest-rostered unit on the slate.

Targets – Akers, Stafford, OBJ, Kupp, Higbee, D/ST

Prop To Bet – Brandon Aiyuk Over 47.5 Receiving Yards

Game Pick – Rams 28-17

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

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