NBA

We are on a roll six slates into the NBA season and we will continue to do so tonight with another heavy schedule on tap. With the key news of yesterday coming as a shock to some, let me take the time to remind you that what happened yesterday is NBA DFS in a nutshell: make a lineup before lock approaches, and you fail to adjust accordingly. Make sure to stay on top of the news and be on your laptop/phone at least one hour prior to lock to maximize winnings.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Looking into today’s NBA slate, as stated above, it’s important to keep up with the news – Jimmy Butler is trending to being out for the Heat, while the Clippers may also be without Kawhi Leonard tonight after an accident with Serge Ibaka that saw Kawhi catch an inadvertent elbow to the face. Before the slate turns on its head, let’s have a look at an early player pool:

Point Guards

Russell Westbrook ($10,600 FD / $9,700 DK)

Coming off a game where he sat out for rest, Russell Westbrook is in a smash spot for today’s premium price range at the point guard position. The price on FD is a bit much for my taste, but I’ll have a ton of shares on DK; Westbrook is coming off back-to-back triple-doubles in his first two games for the Wizards and will be facing a Chicago Bulls team that cannot guard the backcourt after losing Kris Dunn in the offseason and Tomas Satoransky still recovering from injury. Although his efficiency has been as bad as it gets in the NBA, the volume is simply undeniable; Westbrook has taken a whopping 41 shots in two games, having a 31.8% usage rate on the offensive end of the ball.

Stephen Curry ($9,400 FD / $9,600 DK)

All it took was a juicy matchup versus the very same Bulls team we just spoke about above for Curry and the Warriors to get the monkey off their backs. Coming off the crucial first win of the NBA season, Curry now sees a Detroit Pistons team that will be sending out a combination of rookie Killian Hayes and Derrick Rose to guard the 2-time MVP. His 3-point shooting efficiency hasn’t been as deadeye as prior years, but with a ridiculous 35 attempts in just three games, Steph has the potential to break the slate tonight.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)

Let the rest of the NBA community continue to sleep on these Indiana Pacers, and I will continue going right back to them at low ownership. Criminally underpriced in a playoff-type matchup, Malcolm Brogdon has been the cog of this Pacers offense since coming over from Milwaukee and forming quite with the duo with a certain PF you’ll read about shortly. Yes, the matchup is not ideal versus Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, but it’s more so the fact that Vegas has this game as the tightest on the NBA slate – and rightfully so. Averaging 21.3/4.7/6.3 and 1.7 steals per game in his first three, Brogdon will be relied upon heavily in this one.

Goran Dragic ($6,900 FD / $5,800 DK)

Assuming Jimmy Butler is ruled out for tonight’s contest versus the Bucks, look for the guard trio of Dragic, Robinson, and Herro to pick up the slack on offense while Bam Adebayo is tasked with guarding Giannis throughout the game. Coming off the bench in both appearances for the Heat this far, Dragic has been his old self, contributing 19/3/8 on 58.3% shooting and having a 27.1% usage rate.

Honorable Mention: Jrue Holiday ($6,400 FD / $6,700 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($9,600 FD / $9,300 DK)

The highest over/under on the NBA slate by 8 points and two teams that don’t play defense? Yeah, you need a piece of this game in some form. If you’re not playing Westbrook, I’d strongly consider Beal as an alternative if you are not comfortable with the value pieces in this one. Yes, Westbrook was assumed to have been stealing touches from Beal, but that is not the case whatsoever – Beal has a 35.9% usage rate this season and he has picked up right where he left off last season, already averaging 33/4.7/5, including games of 29, 31, and 39 points, respectively.

Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)

A great tournament pivot to a chalky Giannis Antetokounmpo, Middleton is silencing doubters, myself included, with his early-season performance as the Robin to Giannis’ Batman. Grabbing at least 4 boards and 5 assists in every game thus far, Middleton is averaging a quiet 26.7/7.3/6 across three games thus far in 32 minutes per game. With the Heat being so concerned with Bam guarding Giannis, Middleton will have ample opportunity to switch onto whoever he likes on the offensive end with Butler presumed out.

Paul George ($7,600 FD / $8,500 DK)

Should Kawhi be ruled out as anticipated in this one, PG13 becomes a near-lock for me on this NBA slate. Already having a 30% usage rate, PG sees a notable uptick to 33.4% with Kawhi off the floor. Look for both he and Lou Williams to shoulder the load on offense tonight versus a Timberwolves team that will be without their sole defender in Karl-Anthony Towns.

Devin Booker ($7,500 FD / $9,100 DK)

His price is steep enough on DK to warrant his low ownership, but Booker should not be this underowned on FD. Yes, he is surrounded by pieces listed both above and below him, but that’s exactly why I’ll have a ton of him. I love attacking Suns games because their defense is questionable at best, and they love to play an up-pace type of offense. A game versus the Pelicans who are even worse defensively and push the pace even more? Sign me up for a mini stack in this one in the form of Booker paired with Ingram or Zion.

Zach Lavine ($7,500 FD / $8,400 DK)

We said we wanted a piece of the Washington game, and there is no better Chicago Bull to play on any given night than their star shooting guard. A slasher that has the ability to knock down a jump shot, Lavine has really rounded his offensive game in the past few seasons and has become a legit offensive player in the NBA. You’ll need his scoring to get you there for NBA tournament play, but he has the ability to score in bunches given his 34.1% usage rate and Coby White’s struggles early on.

Honorable Mention: D’Angelo Russell ($7,300 FD / $7,600 DK)

Small Forwards

Brandon Ingram ($8,500 FD / $8,200 DK)

As mentioned in the Devin Booker blurb, this game is a big piece of my NBA lineups tonight: high total, fast pace, two teams that don’t play defense. Check, check, check. Ingram and Zion are on a mission this season to prove the league they have grown as players and Ingram’s Most Improved Player award was no fluke; the latter is underpriced on DK while being a premium option at the forever-thin SF position on FD, averaging a nice 26.7/7.3/6.7 in 36.7 minutes per game on 44.1% shooting and 30.2% usage.

Larry Nance Jr. ($5,500 FD / $6,300 DK)

Filling in for the injured Kevin Love, Larry Nance Jr. will always be a target for our NBA DFS lineups in these exact situations. Rocking a mere 15.3% usage rate, Nance blows up on offense when the Cavs are this depleted in the frontcourt and on the wing, becoming a legitimate threat alongside Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, and Darius Garland. He’s a stone cold lock for your FD cash games, and at $5,500, his ceiling potential is there, but be careful on DK where a 30-point effort is simply not enough for his price tag.

Honorable Mention: Tyler Herro ($4,500 FD / $5,700 DK)

Others:

• Michael Porter Jr. ($5,900 FD / $6,400 DK)
• Jerami Grant ($5,700 FD / $6,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)

Not much to say here about the NBA’s back-to-back MVP; he’s averaging over 1.9 FPPM, the Bucks bench is as depleted as it gets in the NBA, and Jimmy Butler is likely going to be out. With Bam Adebayo still drawing as a tough matchup for Giannis, Milwaukee has been crafty enough to open him up and offsetting some minutes between he and Middleton.

Domantas Sabonis ($8,900 FD / $8,600 DK)

Hopefully you’re noticing a pattern by now: Indiana is on the NBA slate? Sabonis will be in my article. This guy deserves the respect of not only the NBA, but the DFS community alike in what he does, day in, day out on the court for this Pacers team. He is a lesser version of Nikola Jokic in the sense that his court vision is elite for a big man, he’s able to pass the ball exceptionally well, and can scoring in multiple ways. Facing an offensive-minded Jayson Tatum now, Sabonis should be able to bully his way into the post and be a strong rebounder on both ends of the court tonight.

Zion Williamson ($8,600 FD / $8,100 DK)

Both he and Ingram are on an absolute tear to begin the NBA season, averaging 21.7 PPG. Despite the lower usage rate than his fellow teammate, Zion has been a force on the glass, averaging 11.7 rebounds per game and will see a Suns frontcourt that is constantly battling struggles on the defensive end and foul trouble.

Honorable Mention: Julius Randle ($7,700 FD / $8,200 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,300 FD / $10,200 DK)

The walking triple-double, it’s been every Nuggets game where I have written up The Joker, and it is not going to stop any time soon. I refer to him this way because, not only is he the best passing big man in the NBA, but he has been an absolute force on the glass, averaging 12 rebounds per game, and can score any way he wishes. Tread carefully on the second half of a back-to-back, but Jokic is in yet another smash spot versus a Sacramento frontcourt that features two of the worst defenders DVP at the position in Hassan Whiteside and Richaun Holmes.

Pool:

• Andre Drummond ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
• Myles Turner ($7,200 FD / $6,000 DK)
• Mason Plumlee ($6,000 FD / $5,700 DK)

FD Bonus Plays: Thomas Bryant ($5,200) and Wendall Carter Jr. ($5,100)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

Thank you to the one and only 2Lock for covering me yesterday! We had another great NBA slate and members are making ground on building bankrolls and already taking down tournaments!

We also lead by example and play exactly what we write/discuss in Discord – shoutout the 2Lock for this hit!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Looking into today’s NBA slate, it’s important to keep up with the news – we have another shorthanded Houston Rockets team as John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and others continue to quarantine, along with the possibility of Kevin Durant sitting out, and news to follow on a certain duo in LA in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Let’s get to it:

Point Guards

Trae Young ($9,800 FD / $9,500 DK)

Despite only having five games on today’s NBA slate, the group of elite point guards is not shallow, beginning with the man out of Atlanta. Trae Young has been on an absolute tear two games into the season, averaging 36.5/4.5/8 on 55.6% shooting across 30.5 minutes per game. Playing a Detroit team that averages over 48 FPPG allowed to the point position and lining up versus rookie Killian Hayes, Trae will be able to do whatever he wants on the offensive end of the ball tonight.

*Edit* After Kyrie Irving got announced OUT, I am now locking in one of, if not both Trae Young and Ja Morant in every lineup.

Kyrie Irving ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)

It doesn’t take too long to get some news in our player pool with Kyrie Irving possibly suiting up for the first time without Kevin Durant tonight. The latter, who is coming off a gruesome achilles injury, will likely be sitting on the second half of their back-to-back, leaving Kyrie running the offense on his own. Potentially without Spencer Dinwiddie as well, Kyrie has a 34.8% usage rate with these teammates off the court and will be lining up on sophomore Ja Morant, who has been one of the worst defenders DVP in his young NBA career in addition to being turnover prone. OUT

Damian Lillard ($9,400 FD / $10,300 DK)

The forgotten about stud at the position, Dame has been ice cold to start the season – but can break out at any time – and I will be there for it when it happens. While the other three targets at the position are a priority for me over Dame, his volume is simply undeniable for his upside: in their last game versus Houston, Dame dropped a whopping 32/5/9 despite only shooting 11/28 from the field and 5/13 from deep. Should he improve his efficiency from the field and hit the deck much harder in his mid-range, look out.

*Edit* Underrated stud still not pulling ownership after Kyrie Irving was ruled OUT

Ja Morant ($8,500 FD / $8,300 DK)

One of 3-max entries will consist of Harden and the point guard battle in this game. Ja is on a mission to set the league on fire after an impressive rookie campaign and having led the Grizzlies to a play-in position for the playoffs in the West. Playing a relentless number of minutes, Morant is already averaging 36/2.5/8 in the first two games of the season and has a 35.1% usage rate.

*Edit* See Trae Young edit

Honorable Mention: Jamal Murray ($7,100 FD / $7,100 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,200 DK)

The most prolific scorer of our generation is a lock on this NBA slate – again. There are no statistics that need to be mentioned here, just play the man. The Rockets will be undermanned again, and he’ll carry them all night long. Last game: 34.3% usage rate, 1.82 FPPM, 44/4/17. 44 points. 17 assists. Are you kidding me?

Dennis Schroder ($6,000 FD / $6,100 DK)

This play hinges on the fact that LeBron sits on the second half of a back-back, but we like to take a stab at where the news will likely trend when writing up plays and follow up afterward. Specifically if Bron sits, Schroder will see a significant bump in usage and work on the offensive side of the ball as he runs the pick ‘n roll with AD and will be relied upon to be the second scoring option.

FD Special: Dillon Brooks ($3,700)

DK Special: Svi Mykhailiuk ($3,600)

Small Forwards

Caris LeVert ($6,300 FD / $6,600 DK)

Similarly to Kyrie Irving, Caris LeVert is in a great spot with Brooklyn injury news to follow. With KD and Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor, LeVert has a whopping 32.8% usage rate as he has been relied upon to run the second unit with Dinwiddie getting the start early this season. With the highest over/under on the NBA slate and with how fast both teams play, I certainly want to attack this one, and LeVert will be a big piece of that.

*Edit* Lock of the slate with James Harden

Jerami Grant ($5,700 FD / $5,900 DK)

These Detroit players have been quite the gems for us early in this NBA season. See what I did there? Gems? Ghost’s Gems. Dad jokes aside, Jerami Grant is finally getting to thrive in an offensive role on a depleted Detroit team after being relied upon solely for his defensive ability in Denver. He’s a strong rebounder, quietly an underappreciated wing defender, and will see a ton of minutes with Blake Griffin out.

Josh Jackson ($4,300 FD / $4,200 DK)

See above – Detroit will be a primary spot for me to get value on this NBA slate and Josh Jackson has been a Win Daily special early in the season. Getting this guy at 0.5% ownership on a 13-game slate was no surprise, but I trust the model 100% and saw Jackson go for 10x value after being a Top-5 value play in our model. With how depleted Detroit is tonight, specifically with Derrick Rose out, Jackson gives us a great option at a terrible SF position.

Houston Rockets Value

Both Danuel House ($4,100 FD / $4,800 DK) and Jae’Sean Tate ($4,200 FD / $4,100 DK) will see an uptick in minutes with the Rockets being heavily undermanned. With everyone flocking to Danuel House and Sterling Brown on their first game, we were the only ones to have Tate this high in our model and saw him run for 24 DK, good for 8x his minimum price value, at 2% ownership, and outscoring Brown, Nwaba, and House – not bad if I do say so myself. Now, with Tate being more expensive than the others, I’m curious to see where the ownership lands on this NBA slate.

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis ($10,200 FD / $10,100 DK)

Possibly being with LeBron James tonight, AD is in a smash spot. Portland has struggled out of the gate defending bigs, and AD is one of the best to do it in the NBA. A whopping 35.3% usage rate with Bron off the court, AD will have his way with Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter in the paint.

Christian Wood ($8,100 FD / $7,200 DK)

A key focal point in our NBA lineups just a few days ago, Christian Wood is still too cheap here versus Denver. Yes, Jokic is a tough matchup inside. But with the number of minutes this guy is slated to play, he’ll find a way to crush again, especially with backup center Mason Plumlee now in Detroit. Rocking a 27.7% usage rate is nothing eye-popping under normal circumstances, but when you’re sharing the court with James Harden, it is. A 31/13 repeat performance is possible, but even if Wood trends in the 25/10 range, we’ll more than we need out of him at these prices.

Bonus Play: Sekou Doumbouya ($3,500 FD / $3,400 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,000 FD / $9,800 DK)

Another stud that is going to get overlooked on this NBA slate, The Joker is in a prime spot to smash the Houston Rockets. The key? He’s game proof because he’s able to play versus small-ball lineups with his perimeter defending and offensive game. The best passing big man in the game, Jokic is averaging a 26.5/12/12 triple-double in his first two games – if you don’t believe me when I call him a walking triple-double every time I reference him, you will eventually. Game stack this one with Harden/Wood/Jokic.

Clint Capela ($6,500 FD / $5,900 DK)

Making his season debut, I will be overweight on an unowned Clint Capela should we have the news saying he is a full-go with no minutes restriction. Seeing John Collins struggle at the ‘5’ and consistently get into foul trouble has been quite frustrating, but Capela is the piece the Hawks need right now to run the pick ‘n roll with one of the league’s best passers in Trae Young since rookie Onyeka Okongwu is still dealing with injuries.

Bonus Play: Mason Plumlee ($6,000 FD / $5,700 DK): The Win Daily gem…

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

I hope everyone had a nice holiday yesterday! We have another exciting NBA slate ahead with plenty of news to follow, so make sure to stay in Discord for updates as player statuses get updated.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($9,000 FD / $9,500 DK)

Dame Time versus Harden? Yes, please. Damian Lillard thrives in these types of matchups, where he is facing another bonafide NBA superstar and likes to set the tone early and shoot often. He is coming off a performance where he was wildly inefficient, dropping a mere 9 points on 4/12 shooting, which is what will keep his ownership lower than it should be in a matchup that will see close to no defense.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 FD / $8,700 DK)

If you listened to any of the preseason NBA podcasts or streams, you’ll know by now just how high I am on De’Aaron Fox and his ceiling. Coming off a season where he averaged 21.1/3.8/6.8 and 1.5 steals per game, Fox plays at a ridiculous pace and carries the Kings offense through a 29.8% usage rate. In a matchup versus CP3 and the Suns, Fox will be able to take advantage of the same backcourt that just allowed Luka Doncic, Josh Richardson, and Jalen Brunson to combine for 56 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,100 FD / $7,400 DK)

As I wrote in my article for the 12/23 slate where we had 13 games on tap, if you don’t know who Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are by now, you will shortly. Running point for an efficient Pacers offense, Brogdon will be able to take advantage of rookie Coby White, who is impressive on the offensive end of the ball but lacks experience on the flipside. While the Bulls guarded the backcourt extremely well last season, Kris Dunn, who is now in Atlanta, is no longer there, and Tomas Satoransky was a DNP-CD last game. Look for Brogdon and Sabonis to light up the Bulls tonight.

Terry Rozier ($6,400 FD / $7,000 DK)

While chasing a 42-point game is never a good idea, that is not the reason for which I am considering Terry Rozier on today’s NBA slate. While 3rd overall pick, LaMelo Ball, is the future, Rozier does not seem to plan on relinquishing the role any time soon given how he played on opening day. Yes, it was a soft matchup versus the Cavaliers, but the Thunder are even worse having traded most of their playoff roster from last season. With he and backcourt run mate Devonte’ Graham playing 37 minutes apiece on opening day, there is no reason to believe that Rozier cannot exceed value, especially on FD if not paying up at the point guard position, even if Ball gets more run in this one.

Darius Garland ($5,500 FD / $5,600 DK)

With the Cavaliers in NBA purgatory, their roster is simply in shambles. A frontcourt tandem of Kevin Love and Andre Drummond is one that can keep them competitive – or give them two valuable trade assets – but Cleveland needs their backcourt of Garland and Sexton to take the next step this season. Garland had a strong preseason and followed it up with 22/6/6 on opening day versus the Hornets, and he gets another soft matchup here versus Detroit.

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)

The most prolific offensive player in the NBA had quite the offseason; being at the center of wild trade rumors out of Houston, being the center of attention of NBA media, and more, but James Harden is a stone cold lock for me on this slate. Can this game get out of hand? The only way it does is if Harden doesn’t feel like playing, which will not be the case considering Houston is only fielding a roster of 8 players. Even with Russell Westbrook in Houston last season, Harden had the league’s third-highest usage rate at 36.3% and the highest ISO percentage – which can only increase with Westbrook now in Washington. He may very well take north of 30 shots tomorrow and I will be centering my single entry and 3-max builds around him.

Bradley Beal ($8,100 FD / $9,300 DK)

This play gets a whole lot more interesting should Russell Westbrook, who will not play one game of two on back-to-backs, be out. However, even with Westbrook in, Beal makes for a great tournament option considering the field will pair Harden with a value play in most contests. Coming off a season where Beal truly broke out with John Wall injured for the entire season, he thrived having the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA at 34.4% and saw a similar workload on opening day with 36% en route to a 31/2/3 stat line on 50% shooting.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,700 FD / $8,400 DK)

With Rudy Gobert being tasked with guarding Karl-Anthony Towns and manning the paint, looking for Donovan Mitchell to carry the load on offense versus a Timberwolves team that has luckluster defenders in D’Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio, and Anthony Edwards as potential matchups for one of the stars from last season’s NBA bubble. Mitchell has the upside we need to take down a tournament, and in a game with a 225.5 over/under, the pace will be there for him to score in bunches. He won’t stuff the sheet with rebounds and assists, making him a risky play, with James Harden soaking up all the ownership at the ‘2’, Mitchell will be sub 2% owned.

Devonte’ Graham ($5,400 FD / $6,700 DK)

He’s a tad expensive on DK, but Graham’s price on FD is laughable. Playing 37 minutes on opening day alongside Terry Rozier, Graham was outshadowed by his backcourt partner’s 42 points, but this will certainly not be the case every night. He was an NBA Most Improved Player candidate last season and offers a ton of upside on both sides of the ball in a marquee NBA DFS matchup versus the OKC Thunder.

FD bonus play: Devin Booker ($7,900)

Small Forwards

This will be a position where we can explore our value options on today’s NBA slate. Rather than writing them all up, make sure to check the projection model to see who is popping in the value column in a group containing Josh Jackson, Sterling Brown, Danuel House, and Isaac Okoro, amongst others.

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($8,500 FD / $8,500 DK)

I wrote him up for Indiana’s first game and we saw him smash the Knicks for 32/13/5 and 58.3 DK points; if you do not know who Domantas Sabonis is by now, you will by the end of the season. He is the most underrated power forward in the NBA in my opinion and plays a very similar style to Nikola Jokic; a big man with excellent vision, amazing passing ability, and can score many different ways. In a matchup versus an inexperienced Lauri Markkanen and Wendall Carter Jr., Sabonis will provide a solid floor/ceiling combination.

Aaron Gordon ($6,900 FD / $6,900 DK)

Usage is fairly spread out for an Orlando Magic team that is surprisingly balanced with Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, Gordon, and of course, Nikola Vucevic, in addition to rookie Cole Anthony coming off the bench. Vuc is the priority for me in my Orlando exposure, as I always love to target Washington’s defense, but where I can, I’ll slide in Gordon for the savings and take advantage of his matchup on the wing.

Christian Wood ($6,700 FD / $5,900 DK)

Being center eligible on DK, Christian Wood will be in the majority of my lineups on both sites tomorrow. With Houston running only 8 active players due to COVID exposure, Wood will see a ton of run in the frontcourt and will be called upon to lead the charge as a secondary scorer to James Harden. While Josef Nurkic is no slouch on defense, the fact that Houston is so undermanned and Wood’s combination of scoring and rebounding in this one makes him an easy target; he is a lock for our cash games.

Centers

Joel Embiid ($9,800 FD / $10,200 DK)

After getting off to a slow start, Joel Embiid showed the NBA just how dominant he can be in the second half of their season debut versus Washington. Being able to score from behind the arc, dominate the post like no other, and be a force on the defensive end, Mitchell Robinson, someone who quickly gets into foul trouble, and Julius Randle will be in tough versus the one known as ‘The Process’. After WD favorite Domantas Sabonis just dropped a near trouble-double on this very same frontcourt, just imagine what Embiid will do tonight.

Andre Drummond ($8,400 FD / $9,200 DK)

A threat to drop 20/20 in on any given NBA slate, Andre Drummond returns home to face his former team in the Detroit Pistons. Opening day gem Mason Plumlee was a force for us and is solid on the defensive end, but Dre is a bully in the paint and will surely give him a hard time on the glass all night long.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,200 FD / $9,100 DK)

One of my favorite targets at the center position on today’s NBA slate, Vucevic will be virtually unowned with everyone paying up for James Harden and other pieces mentioned. Remaining the focal point of the Magic offense, Vuc has a glorious matchup versus Thomas Bryant who was just torched by Embiid in their season debut. Washington has been ranking in the bottom-3 of the NBA DVP versus the center position over the past few years, allowing over 55 FPPG to the position, and it surely won’t change this year.

Value Gems: Check the projection model here. Expect a lot of Houston Rockets.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

After a very successful first full NBA slate on 12/23, we are back for all the money on Christmas Day. A true NBA tradition, every one of these matchups has high-profile players in them; this not only translates to some interesting lineup builds on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but it also makes the combination of ‘Stars ‘n Scrubs’ all that more attractive. Although it is to a lesser extent than both opening day and the 12/23 slate because we are not on either extreme of a 2-game slate or a 13-game slate, we must still plant our flag somewhere in order to reach the top of the leaderboards – on opening day, it was a condensed player pool, whereas the 12/23 slate was all about identifying which of the 13 games we wanted exposure to. Thus, I will be identifying which players can be in the optimal lineup for both sites and crossing many off my list – if you have any questions, feel free to tag me in Discord, but I will say this, players are not mentioned for a reason.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineups after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,400 FD / $10,000 DK)

I mentioned him in my write-up for last slate and how he was a focal point for our NBA cash lineups. Despite not putting up a ridiculous amount of points, he proved to be a necessity because he was over 80% owned in all cash contests – with 50% of the field getting paid out, you need to roster these extremely high-owned players (we call them chalk for future reference) because if they go nuclear and you did not roster them, you are dead in the water. I had also mentioned that Luka sees an uptick in usage with Porzingis off the floor, increasing from 36.8% to nearly 40% — and that’s exactly what happened. Doncic dropped an efficient 32/8/5 without a single 3-pointer and saw a 39.7% usage rate in 36 minutes. Playing against someone that just signed him to a shoe deal, one his idols, and on Christmas Day has all the narrative – and analytics to back it up – that we need to play Luka in this matchup, but with other studs being the priority for me, he’ll make one of my 3-max lines but I will be slightly underweight compared to the field in my 150-max. Luka. LeBron. Primetime. Christmas Day. You do in fact, love to see it.

Kyrie Irving ($8,900 FD / $8,500 DK)

You wanted a Luka vs LeBron narrative? Check. How about a Kyrie back to Boston narrative? Also, check. The shiftiest man in the NBA was back to his old ways in Steve Nash’s new-look Brooklyn offense and was putting defenders on ice in his season debut. Facing Marcus Smart in this one is no cakewalk, but Kyrie has been victorious in this matchup before from his days in Cleveland, averaging 22.7/2.9/5.6 across 33.4 minutes in 7 matchups versus Smart. Still underpriced on both sites, this game has all the appeal we need to get our star power from it: with the second-highest over/under on the slate at 229.5, Brooklyn’s pace in their season debut will force Boston’s hand in choosing to double only one of Kyrie and KD – lock at least one in your lineups with confidence.

Steph Curry ($8,700 FD / $10,200 DK)

Was it a disappointing season opener for the Warriors? Yes, absolutely; they looked lost on defense without Draymond Green in the lineup, Steph got no help with lackluster play from Andrew Wiggins, and this Brooklyn Nets offense may be even scarier than we anticipated in the offseason. Nonetheless, this +10.5 spread is disrespectful to the greatest shooter of all time and his Warriors. With Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis being the first to come off the bench for the Bucks, the Warriors will not have to deal with the likes of Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen in this one like they did on opening day and will be able to keep it close. Milwaukee struggles from deep, giving up the most 3pm in the 2019-2020 NBA season with 1,020, good for 13.97 per game. Yeah, they give up a ton, oh, and Curry isn’t too bad of a 3-point shooter.

Jrue Holiday ($7,000 FD / $7,500 DK)

If you’re not playing Giannis Antetokounmpo in your lineup but are playing Steph Curry, I highly recommend getting one of Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton. With Steph almost guaranteed to carry the Warriors offense on any given night, someone needs to keep pace with the 2-time NBA MVP and 3-time NBA Champion. Enter the prized offseason acquisition, Jrue Holiday. Coming off an inspiring debut with his new team, Jrue shot an efficient 10/16 from the floor en route to 25/6/3 in 38 minutes – 38 minutes! Not many players will see as much action as Jrue on the entire slate, and that alone makes him worthy to be in our NBA lineups.

Jeff Teague ($5,800 FD / $4,200 DK)

The projection model had him as the fourth-best value on a slate with 300+ players, so I cannot wait to see what it gives us for Jeff Teague tomorrow. He’s a stone cold lock for me on DK tomorrow and makes for an interesting pivot on FD to the chalkier options in the premium price range above him. With Brooklyn really pushing the pace, I’m not expecting many rotations where Brad Stevens runs both Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson on the floor at the same time, rather, he’ll stagger the two to counter the 1-2 punch of Jordan and Allen at the center position for the Nets. Enter Teague, who will be a primary benefactor of an up-pace matchup with Kemba Walker sidelined once again.

Shooting Guards

Paul George ($7,600 FD / $8,700 DK)

I’ll be severely underweight yet again on DK with him being priced with the likes of Kyrie Irving, but his position eligibility on FD makes him an interesting target, especially if you’re not playing Kawhi Leonard. This could be a chance for Paul George to redeem himself from their playoff exit versus these same Denver Nuggets, but PG will certainly be in tough versus the likes of Will Barton on the wing – if he can switch onto MPJ and Gary Harris all game long, look out for another great performance from PG13.

Khris Middleton ($7,400 FD / $7,400 DK)

Similarly to what I said above with regards to Jrue Holiday, if you’re playing Steph Curry and not playing Giannis, you need to consider Middleton to be your main runback. With Golden State being smaller than most teams up the middle in a similar fashion to Boston, Middleton may not duplicate his 14-rebound performance from opening night, but he can certainly reach double digits. Add in the fact that he looked good distributing the ball and scoring on 50% of his field goals, Middleton has sneaky upside amongst the mid-range targets.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)

At a mere $5,600 on both sites, Eric Bledsoe is trending to be one of my favorite targets tomorrow before running the projections. Starting alongside Lonzo Ball, Bledsoe saw a whopping 34 minutes of action in his Pelicans debut, second to only Brandon Ingram. With Jimmy Butler being preoccupied with both Ingram and Zion, look for Bledsoe to shoulder another heavy workload in the first game of the NBA slate.

Dennis Schroder ($5,000 FD / $6,300 DK)

Dropping a near triple-double in his Lakers debut, Dennis Schroder is severely unpriced on FD and still affordable on DK. While I am not anticipating a duplicate performance because of LeBron and AD having much better games this time around, Schroder’s ability to log heavy minutes and act as a secondary scorer whenever James or Davis leave the floor has him a part of my player pool.

Donte DiVincenzo ($4,500 FD / $4,700 DK)

He won’t wow you with anything other than his scoring ability, but DiVi has strong upside on this NBA slate because of the number of minutes he will log compared to that of other value plays. With Milwaukee playing the entire starting unit 27 or more minutes considering how shallow their bench is, he makes for a premier option on a slate where we’re starving for value to jam in the studs.

Small Forwards

LeBron James ($11,000 FD / $10,000 DK)

Is there much of an explanation as to why we should be considering LeBron James on Christmas Day? This will be Bron’s 15th Christmas Day game, where he currently averages 25.8/7.7/6.9 across 38.3 minutes of action. While both he and AD looked sluggish on opening day, this is a premier bounce back spot with how vulnerable Dallas is on defense without KP in the lineup.

Kawhi Leonard ($9,500 FD / $9,800 DK)

He’s likely going to be the lowest owned stud on the slate, and it’s not because he’s not in a good spot, but rather that others are simply in better ones. By no means do I like to target Denver’s defense, so I will be underweight in my MME pool and he will not make my single entry builds, but should the Nuggets continue to start MPJ on the wing, look for Kawhi to walk all over him on the offensive end of the ball and surprise people on this slate.

Jaylen Brown ($7,500 FD / $7,000 DK)

After a breakout campaign last season, JB started the new season off strong by dropping 33/5/3 across 37 minutes versus the Bucks in a 122-121 victory. With the Brooklyn Nets playing an up-pace, high-tempo type of game, both JB and Tatum are in an environment to thrive in this matchup, especially JB with Durant likely guarding Tatum for the majority of the game. With Jeff Teague being the calming influence on the offensive end, I’m expecting Brown’s volume and efficiency to propel the Celtics to be competitive in this one.

Brandon Ingram ($7,300 FD / $8,300 DK)

Coming off an impressive season that ended with a Most Improved Player award, BI was at it again in the Pelicans debut and scorched the Raptors for 24 points on 10/19 shooting to go along with 9 rebounds and 11 assists. He’ll be in tough if Jimmy Butler lines up on him more often than Zion, but if not, he’ll walk all over anyone else that draws this matchup.

Others to Consider

• Caris LeVert ($5,800 FD – won’t play him on DK)
• Will Barton ($5,200 FD / $6,300 DK)
• Tyler Herro ($5,000 FD / $5,600 DK)
• Joe Harris ($4,300 FD / $5,300 DK)
• Nic Batum ($3,500 FD / $4,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600 FD / $10,900 DK)

The back-to-back MVP infamously missed a free throw to send their opening game versus the Celtics to overtime, but just the fact that he led the charge in overcoming a 14-point, 4th quarter deficit shows just how good he is. Nobody will be able to guard him in this matchup and with the Warriors lack of interior defense, Giannis is pricey, but worth it given his potential to put up 70+ should the Warriors keep this one close.

Anthony Davis ($10,600 FD / $10,300 DK)

Sure, he did look awfully inefficient in their debut, but with Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber slated to guard Anthony Davis, he can bounce back in a huge fashion that you will not want to miss out on. Dallas quietly had one of, if not the best offense in the entire NBA last season and really pushed the pace, slotting in as the third-fastest team in the league, which will bode well for AD in transition. Look for him to stuff the sheet on both ends of the court.

Jayson Tatum ($9,800 FD / $9,300 DK)

Another pay up option on FD, you can see where I am going with the PF position over there – DO NOT pay down whatsoever. Tatum is one of four players I am considering at the position and is truly blossoming into a franchise cornerstone. His defensive ability has been on display since his days at Duke, but with Tatum now dropping stat lines such as the 30/7/2 he did on opening day, his price tag is well deserved in this pace up spot versus KD and company.

Kevin Durant ($8,500 FD / $9,400 DK)

He’s criminally underpriced on FD and needs to be in all of your lineups there. On DK, KD is expensive but benefits from a shallow PF position and showed that he is back from his achilles injury in full force. The 7-footer looked smooth as ever in their opening day thrashing of his former team and will be a cog to the Nets offense all season long.

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($9,700 FD / $10,100 DK)

No safer option at the center position than The Joker and he will STILL go overlooked with Montrezl Harrell garnering most of the ownership. Why? I’m not sure – Joker just dropped 29/14/15 like it was nobody’s business and is a true force to be reckoned with on both ends of the court. Yes, he was mentioned in the 12/23 article for GPPs so I hope you got your exposure, but if you did not, do not make the same mistake twice.

Montrezl Harrell ($5,100 FD / $6,000 DK)

Why he is the chalkiest option at the position, I truly cannot tell you. I said it a million times on 12/23 to NOT play him with AD because if one goes off, the other one; the other day, AD struggled, and Harrell got more run than he typically will. With AD having the softer of matchups here versus Powell/Kleber instead of Ibaka like the other day, I’ll be fine with this in cash but a hard pass in GPPs.

Deandre Jordan ($4,500 FD / $5,600 DK)

The projection model loved Jordan the other day, and he truly came through with 23 fantasy points in only 17 minutes of action, good for 1.35 FPPM. Anticipate him to get more run here with the Celtics keeping this one much closer than the Warriors did and having true centers for him to match up with in Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson.

Value Gems: Check the projection model here

I’ve said this twice now, but I simply cannot stress it enough: remember to review the NBA projection model and NBA cheat sheet for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost