NBA DFS: Ghost’s GPP Gems 12/26

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I hope everyone had a nice holiday yesterday! We have another exciting NBA slate ahead with plenty of news to follow, so make sure to stay in Discord for updates as player statuses get updated.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($9,000 FD / $9,500 DK)

Dame Time versus Harden? Yes, please. Damian Lillard thrives in these types of matchups, where he is facing another bonafide NBA superstar and likes to set the tone early and shoot often. He is coming off a performance where he was wildly inefficient, dropping a mere 9 points on 4/12 shooting, which is what will keep his ownership lower than it should be in a matchup that will see close to no defense.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 FD / $8,700 DK)

If you listened to any of the preseason NBA podcasts or streams, you’ll know by now just how high I am on De’Aaron Fox and his ceiling. Coming off a season where he averaged 21.1/3.8/6.8 and 1.5 steals per game, Fox plays at a ridiculous pace and carries the Kings offense through a 29.8% usage rate. In a matchup versus CP3 and the Suns, Fox will be able to take advantage of the same backcourt that just allowed Luka Doncic, Josh Richardson, and Jalen Brunson to combine for 56 points, 17 rebounds and 10 assists.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7,100 FD / $7,400 DK)

As I wrote in my article for the 12/23 slate where we had 13 games on tap, if you don’t know who Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis are by now, you will shortly. Running point for an efficient Pacers offense, Brogdon will be able to take advantage of rookie Coby White, who is impressive on the offensive end of the ball but lacks experience on the flipside. While the Bulls guarded the backcourt extremely well last season, Kris Dunn, who is now in Atlanta, is no longer there, and Tomas Satoransky was a DNP-CD last game. Look for Brogdon and Sabonis to light up the Bulls tonight.

Terry Rozier ($6,400 FD / $7,000 DK)

While chasing a 42-point game is never a good idea, that is not the reason for which I am considering Terry Rozier on today’s NBA slate. While 3rd overall pick, LaMelo Ball, is the future, Rozier does not seem to plan on relinquishing the role any time soon given how he played on opening day. Yes, it was a soft matchup versus the Cavaliers, but the Thunder are even worse having traded most of their playoff roster from last season. With he and backcourt run mate Devonte’ Graham playing 37 minutes apiece on opening day, there is no reason to believe that Rozier cannot exceed value, especially on FD if not paying up at the point guard position, even if Ball gets more run in this one.

Darius Garland ($5,500 FD / $5,600 DK)

With the Cavaliers in NBA purgatory, their roster is simply in shambles. A frontcourt tandem of Kevin Love and Andre Drummond is one that can keep them competitive – or give them two valuable trade assets – but Cleveland needs their backcourt of Garland and Sexton to take the next step this season. Garland had a strong preseason and followed it up with 22/6/6 on opening day versus the Hornets, and he gets another soft matchup here versus Detroit.

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)

The most prolific offensive player in the NBA had quite the offseason; being at the center of wild trade rumors out of Houston, being the center of attention of NBA media, and more, but James Harden is a stone cold lock for me on this slate. Can this game get out of hand? The only way it does is if Harden doesn’t feel like playing, which will not be the case considering Houston is only fielding a roster of 8 players. Even with Russell Westbrook in Houston last season, Harden had the league’s third-highest usage rate at 36.3% and the highest ISO percentage – which can only increase with Westbrook now in Washington. He may very well take north of 30 shots tomorrow and I will be centering my single entry and 3-max builds around him.

Bradley Beal ($8,100 FD / $9,300 DK)

This play gets a whole lot more interesting should Russell Westbrook, who will not play one game of two on back-to-backs, be out. However, even with Westbrook in, Beal makes for a great tournament option considering the field will pair Harden with a value play in most contests. Coming off a season where Beal truly broke out with John Wall injured for the entire season, he thrived having the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA at 34.4% and saw a similar workload on opening day with 36% en route to a 31/2/3 stat line on 50% shooting.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,700 FD / $8,400 DK)

With Rudy Gobert being tasked with guarding Karl-Anthony Towns and manning the paint, looking for Donovan Mitchell to carry the load on offense versus a Timberwolves team that has luckluster defenders in D’Angelo Russell, Ricky Rubio, and Anthony Edwards as potential matchups for one of the stars from last season’s NBA bubble. Mitchell has the upside we need to take down a tournament, and in a game with a 225.5 over/under, the pace will be there for him to score in bunches. He won’t stuff the sheet with rebounds and assists, making him a risky play, with James Harden soaking up all the ownership at the ‘2’, Mitchell will be sub 2% owned.

Devonte’ Graham ($5,400 FD / $6,700 DK)

He’s a tad expensive on DK, but Graham’s price on FD is laughable. Playing 37 minutes on opening day alongside Terry Rozier, Graham was outshadowed by his backcourt partner’s 42 points, but this will certainly not be the case every night. He was an NBA Most Improved Player candidate last season and offers a ton of upside on both sides of the ball in a marquee NBA DFS matchup versus the OKC Thunder.

FD bonus play: Devin Booker ($7,900)

Small Forwards

This will be a position where we can explore our value options on today’s NBA slate. Rather than writing them all up, make sure to check the projection model to see who is popping in the value column in a group containing Josh Jackson, Sterling Brown, Danuel House, and Isaac Okoro, amongst others.

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($8,500 FD / $8,500 DK)

I wrote him up for Indiana’s first game and we saw him smash the Knicks for 32/13/5 and 58.3 DK points; if you do not know who Domantas Sabonis is by now, you will by the end of the season. He is the most underrated power forward in the NBA in my opinion and plays a very similar style to Nikola Jokic; a big man with excellent vision, amazing passing ability, and can score many different ways. In a matchup versus an inexperienced Lauri Markkanen and Wendall Carter Jr., Sabonis will provide a solid floor/ceiling combination.

Aaron Gordon ($6,900 FD / $6,900 DK)

Usage is fairly spread out for an Orlando Magic team that is surprisingly balanced with Markelle Fultz, Evan Fournier, Gordon, and of course, Nikola Vucevic, in addition to rookie Cole Anthony coming off the bench. Vuc is the priority for me in my Orlando exposure, as I always love to target Washington’s defense, but where I can, I’ll slide in Gordon for the savings and take advantage of his matchup on the wing.

Christian Wood ($6,700 FD / $5,900 DK)

Being center eligible on DK, Christian Wood will be in the majority of my lineups on both sites tomorrow. With Houston running only 8 active players due to COVID exposure, Wood will see a ton of run in the frontcourt and will be called upon to lead the charge as a secondary scorer to James Harden. While Josef Nurkic is no slouch on defense, the fact that Houston is so undermanned and Wood’s combination of scoring and rebounding in this one makes him an easy target; he is a lock for our cash games.

Centers

Joel Embiid ($9,800 FD / $10,200 DK)

After getting off to a slow start, Joel Embiid showed the NBA just how dominant he can be in the second half of their season debut versus Washington. Being able to score from behind the arc, dominate the post like no other, and be a force on the defensive end, Mitchell Robinson, someone who quickly gets into foul trouble, and Julius Randle will be in tough versus the one known as ‘The Process’. After WD favorite Domantas Sabonis just dropped a near trouble-double on this very same frontcourt, just imagine what Embiid will do tonight.

Andre Drummond ($8,400 FD / $9,200 DK)

A threat to drop 20/20 in on any given NBA slate, Andre Drummond returns home to face his former team in the Detroit Pistons. Opening day gem Mason Plumlee was a force for us and is solid on the defensive end, but Dre is a bully in the paint and will surely give him a hard time on the glass all night long.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,200 FD / $9,100 DK)

One of my favorite targets at the center position on today’s NBA slate, Vucevic will be virtually unowned with everyone paying up for James Harden and other pieces mentioned. Remaining the focal point of the Magic offense, Vuc has a glorious matchup versus Thomas Bryant who was just torched by Embiid in their season debut. Washington has been ranking in the bottom-3 of the NBA DVP versus the center position over the past few years, allowing over 55 FPPG to the position, and it surely won’t change this year.

Value Gems: Check the projection model here. Expect a lot of Houston Rockets.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost