NBA

The NBA All-Star Break is the proverbial half-way point in the season. Yes, most teams have played 2/3rd of their games, but the break signifies a good time to hit the reset button and prepare for the push to the Larry O’Brien Trophy. It’s also a good time for us daily bettors to focus on what has worked and where we can find advantages in the market. I’m going to share with you the data I have collected for the entire season and key metrics that will help your handicapping and set you up for success in the 2nd half. It’s winning season, so let’s go!

To date my NBA game bets, which can be found daily at this link, are 30-18. This is coming off a successful NFL Season (49-29) and College Football Bowl Season (19-11).

NBA BETTING FACTORS

As a starting point, I want to layout what I’m looking for when scanning the market for bets on a given day. These aren’t the only factors, as player injuries and availability come into play as well. But using the below factors will get you to a specific game and help you narrow the betting field for the day.

BACK-TO-BACK NIGHTS: The first, which is quite obvious, is whether a team is playing on back-to-back (B2B) nights. The latter, not surprisingly, often signifies a betting advantage. Players hate playing back-to-back games. They often say it’s the one thing they would do away with. And the numbers show. Teams playing in back-to-back nights are 83-96 Against The Spread (ATS). Or better stated, they cover the spread just 46% of the time. Just blindly playing the fresher team would have netted you 4.7 units in the first half. We’ll get to more of this later and show which teams to fade and which teams to consider on B2B’s.

TRAVEL (5+ Game Road Trip): Every team goes through at least one, if not multiple, long road trips per year. The NBA tries to stack Western and Eastern trips for the opposite coast just to minimize their long flights. But on that last leg of the road trip, we typically see the wear and tear kick-in. Doc Rivers took over as Head Coach of the Bucks in the middle of a 5-game road trip in which Milwaukee went 1-4 SU and ATS. And he famously complained about the schedule makers doing him no favors. If a coach complains, you know the players are the ones behind that engine.

I tracked 26 times in which a team went on a 5+ game road trip. In the last game of that stretch, the teams are collectively 13-22 ATS. And they are even worse straight up with a 10-25 record. Just something to keep an eye on in the 2nd half.

HOME/AWAY ATS Splits: Some teams are a better home team and some play better on the road. When the splits are wide, it’s something we track and keep an eye on for future advantages (i.e. a good home ATS team versus a bad road ATS team). On the season, home teams are 409-411 ATS. So while it’s an even split league wide, I’ll give you some teams that thrive in certain roles (i.e. home team or away).

HOME DOGS: Who doesn’t love a good home dog? It’s what we love to bet on the gridiron so why not the hardcourt. Well data shows it’s not always the prudent choice as home dogs are 155-159 ATS this season. But some are better than others and we’ll point those out below.

0-5 Point / 5-10 Point / 10+ Point Spreads: I’ve analyzed three brackets of key spreads and assessed what each team has done as either a favorite or dog in these point ranges. For example, the Mavericks are 13-5 ATS as a 0-5 point favorite. But they are 6-7 ATS as a favorite of 5 points or more.

Recent Play (i.e. Last 5 Games): While I won’t share much information on this category in the below. It is something you’ll see me point to as part of my handicapping when posting plays in Discord or on our betting page. So keep a lookout for L5 performance numbers. Basketball is a game of runs.

So it’s time to give you some key stats and ATS/SU numbers in the categories above that will help you identify team strengths and weaknesses heading into the home stretch of the NBA season.

BEST & WORST RECORDS ATS:

There’s an old adage that good teams win but great teams cover. And if you follow that, then the Orlando Magic is your favorite team. They crushed the books in the 1st half with a 36-19 record ATS. They were great as favorite’s (15-4) and underdogs (21-15). The Magic have exceeded expectations this season and are sitting in 8th place in the Eastern Conference with a 30-25 record.

On the flip side are the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are a mess on the court and in the sports books as they own a 17-38 record ATS. They books haven’t adjusted as the Hawks went 3-11 ATS in December and 2-12 ATS in January. They’ve rebounded slightly in February with a 5-3 record ATS. But they still cover just 31% of the time.

BEST & WORST HOME RECORDS ATS:

Home court advantage is one thing. Home court ATS winners are another. And we go to the Lone Star state for the team that takes care of their home court the best; the Houston Rockets. The Rockets invested money into their team in the offseason and that has shown on the court as they have drastically improved their play and find themselves competitive in a tough Western Conference. They are 19-9 ATS at home, where they’ve played 13 of those games as favorites and the other 15 as underdogs.

The one team at the polar opposite end of the standings is Atlanta with an 8-20 ATS record at home. But we’ve highlighted their misfortunes earlier so instead let’s look at the 2nd worst home team which are the Washington Wizards with a record of 10-16 ATS in our Nation’s Capital. The Wizards are just stuck in purgatory with some of the worst team basketball players this side of the Atlantic. And it’s obvious that Washington fans can’t stand to watch their team either. Which may explain why they play so well on the road (we’ll get to that next).

BEST & WORST ROAD RECORDS ATS:

Would you believe me if I told you a team with 9 wins on the season is the best team to bet with on the road? Well believe it or not, it’s true. The Washington Wizards are 19-9 ATS on the road. They thrive in those situations with 27 of their 28 games as a dog (they’re 1-0 as a road fave).

While Atlanta is also bad on the road ATS, they’re not the worst! That title goes to the Charlotte Hornets who are 8-17 ATS away from the Queen City. The Hornets have Lamelo Ball (sometimes) and Brandon Miller to build around. So the future could be bright. But the present is bleak and we need to attack betting against the Hornets in the 2nd half. Of their 41 losses, 26 have been by double digits including a 53 point loss to the 76ers back in December.

BEST & WORST BACK-TO-BACK RECORDS ATS:

Almost every NBA team plays the B2B scenarios differently. It might have been what got ex-Nets HC Jacque Vaughn fired earlier this week as the team points back to a December game when he sat almost everyone (he actually started a few starters then benched them after Q1). But it’s important to know who plays these situations well and we look to the Dallas Mavericks who are 5-2 ATS in B2B’s. While they have the most wins, we also have three teams that are 4-1 ATS in B2B’s in the Clippers, Jazz and Trail Blazers.

One team to fade in B2B’s is the Indiana Pacers who are a dreadful 1-6 ATS in 2nd leg of the games. We all know they play at a furious pace which leads to poor play when faced with two games in two nights.

NBA TEAM-BY-TEAM STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES:

ATLANTA HAWKS: The Hawks have no real strengths in the betting market. The only highlight is the one game in which they were 10 point dogs, they covered. So they’re 1-0 as 10 point underdogs. We all know they’re the worst in many categories but specifically as a home underdog where they are 2-6 ATS (25% cover).

BOSTON CELTICS: We haven’t talked about the best team in the NBA primarily because Vegas has a good pulse on the C’s. Boston is 27-26 ATS. They are pretty much 0.500 in all key categories. However, one area they are above 0.500 is as a 10-point favorite. In this situation they are 10-8 ATS. They are two games under 0.500 as a road favorite where they come in as 11-13 ATS.

BROOKLYN NETS: We all know Brooklyn is bad in B2B’s (1-4 ATS) and on the road (9-15 ATS). But they’re very profitable as a home favorite where they are 9-3 ATS.

CHARLOTTE HORNETS: Give me the Hornets, says almost no one at the counter. They are 21-33 ATS which is 2nd worst in the league. They are decent in B2B’s with a 5-2 ATS and have covered their only game as a road favorite (but we prob won’t see another).

CHICAGO BULLS: The Bulls are a mess on the court but a sneaky good play in the betting markets. They thrive in the 5-to-10-point favorite role where they are 8-3 ATS. However, they are just 5-8 ATS as a small favorite (i.e. less than 5 points).

CLEVELAND CAVS: Cleveland is a great story as they’ve surged into the #2 seed in the East. They’re particularly good as a small favorite (less than 5 points) as they are 13-7 ATS in that role. They struggle as a small underdog (less than 5 points) where they are 3-6 ATS.

DALLAS MAVS: Not many are better than Dallas in the role as a favorite. They are 19-12 ATS as a favorite and 13-5 ATS as a small fave. Avoid them when the Mavs are getting 5 to 10 points as they are 0-5 ATS in that situation.

DENVER NUGGETS: The champs are a tough team to bet on as they are 19-29 ATS as a favorite. Their best role is as a dog of 5-to-10 points as they are 2-0 in those situations. That’s been when Jokic hasn’t played so we likely won’t see many more of those. So maybe look for when they play the Lakers as they are 2-0 ATS against their foe from LA.

DETROIT PISTONS: The first-half was a nightmare for the Pistons as they set a new NBA record for consecutive losses. But not all was bad in the betting market as they were 13-8 ATS as 10-point dogs or more. On the flip side, they were just 1-4 ATS as favorites.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: The Warriors are a heavy public team which can often make their lines being inflated. But they perform very well as an underdog as they lead the league with a 68% winning percentage ATS when they get points (15-7 ATS). They are two different stories as a favorite as they are 7-3 ATS on the road in those situations. But just 7-14 ATS as a home fave.

HOUSTON ROCKETS: We noted how the Rockets are rock stars at home with a 19-9 ATS record. However, on the road as a dog they are just 8-14 ATS.

INDIANA PACERS: The Pacers are fun. Especially as an underdog where they are 18-12 ATS. Even better they are 8-3 ATS as a home dog. Obviously, we need to stay away on B2B’s (1-6 ATS) but also avoid them as a 5-10 point favorite as they are 4-8 ATS in that role.

LA CLIPPERS: The Clippers are a team worth CONSIDERING AS A FUTURES BET FOR NBA CHAMP. But they have James Harden, so the playoff sabotage is coming. And they’re the Clippers, who have never made it to the finals. However, they are a darling for bettors as a favorite. As shown by their 24-12 ATS record when favored by 10 points or less. Just beware when they are double digit faves as they’re just 1-6 ATS in that role.

LA LAKERS: The Lakers won the In-Season Tournament and hung a banner in their arena to honor that momentous achievement. But that’s been about the only thing worth highlighting on an otherwise dismal season. They are stuck in neutral sitting in the play-in game seeding. The only role they thrive in is as a double digit favorite where they’re 3-1 ATS. However, stay far away when they’re a road favorite as they’re just 2-8 ATS in that situation.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES: The Grizzlies season ended before it really even started. They lost their superstar, Ja Morant, to a suspension and then proceeded to lose their first 6 games of the season. And they never dug out of that hole. One area in which they perform well is as a small favorite (5 points or less) as they are 5-2 ATS in that spot. But run far away when they’re a small dog as they are 4-10 ATS in that role.

MIAMI HEAT: The reigning Eastern Conference champs have yet to find their form from last April/May/June. They are an underwhelming 25-30 ATS. They’re worst position is as a home underdog as they are 1-6 ATS in that spot. They play a little better away from home as an underdog as they’re 10-7 ATS when getting points on the road.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS: The Bucks are the 2nd worst team ATS on the season. The addition of Dame Lilliard has made their spreads inflated. And their defense just isn’t good enough to trust with big numbers (17th in defensive rating, they were 4th in 2022-23). They are 2-0 ATS against both the Celtics and Hornets. The latter they see two times next week. We know the bad, but what stands out is they are 3-12 ATS as a double digit favorite.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES: The Twolves have surprised most everyone by catapulting to the top of the Western Conference standings. But they aren’t great in the betting market as Vegas has a good pulse on their performances. One area in which they excel is as a home underdog, where they are 3-0 ATS. But they struggle as a small favorite where they are just 4-9 ATS.

NEW YORK KNICKS: The Knicks were a betting favorite in January when they went 13-3 ATS. They’ve come back to earth in February but are still a team finds themselves at the top of the ATS standings. Their biggest strength is as a favorite where they are 21-12 ATS. They struggle in the road dog role as they’re just 6-9 ATS in that spot.

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER: If not for the Magic, the Thunder would be the best team to back ATS. They are 23-15 ATS as a favorite and 11-5 ATS as a dog. They can cover on the road (16-11 ATS) or at home (18-9 ATS). Their best leverage situation is as a road underdog as they’re 8-3 ATS in that role. But also look at the 0-to-5 point favorite situation as they’re 7-2 ATS there.

ORLANDO MAGIC: We follow up the Thunder with the best team at covering spreads in the NBA; the Orlando Magic. They are dynamite as a favorite going 15-4 ATS. In particular, they are 7-1 ATS as a small favorite. They’re also 5-1 ATS as a road fave. While it seems like there could be regression in the 2nd half, they already opened with a road win and cover at Indiana. So I’m not fading the team from central Florida at all.

PHILADELPHIA 76ers: The Sixers are my team and I feel like I have a good grasp on them. The problem is, they’re great 1st half betting stats were primarily with the league MVP in their lineup. But now he’s gone and they’ve fallen on bad times. Since his injury in Golden State, the Sixers are 3-7 ATS and SU. While they’ve been good in the favorite role this year, 23-14 ATS, it’s something we’ll have to recalibrate in the 2nd half. I’ll look at them in the mid-dog range as they’re 2-0 in that spot since Embiid’s injury.

PHOEXIX SUNS: Phoenix is another team overvalued in the betting market as they have the 5th worst ATS record. They’re decent as a road dog, 5-4 ATS. But fade them as a home dog as they’re 0-3 ATS in that spot.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS: The Blazers are a bad basketball team. And they aren’t much better in the betting market posting a 25-29 ATS record overall. They’re best role is as a big dog (10 or more points) as they are 12-6 ATS in that role. They are bad as a favorite sitting at 1-4 ATS.

SAN ANTONIO SPURS: The Spurs have the bigger picture in mind. But as they grow a team around Victor Wembanyama, they are still finding ways to compete this season. They thrive in the favorite role, going 4-1 ATS on the season. Where they struggle is on the road when a 5-to-10 point underdog, as they’re 3-10 ATS in that spot.

SACRAMENTO KINGS: The Kings have failed to live up to their expectations coming off a 48-win season and #3 seed in the West. While they are on pace for 47 wins, they’re in the 8th seed in the West and may have to be in the play-in games. Looking at their strengths betting wise, they are 8-5 ATS as a dog on the road. They’re also 3-0 ATS against Denver and 2-0 ATS against LA Lakers. Their weakness is as a big fave. They are 0-3 ATS at home when favored by 10 points or more.

TORONTO RAPTORS: The Raptors punted on the season trading away a few of their core players in OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. But they’re a team to keep an eye on when a small favorite as they’re 7-4 ATS in that role. But stay away when the spread gets over 5 points, as they’re 2-7 ATS as a 5-to-10 point favorite.

UTAH JAZZ: The Jazz have been a pesky team and it shows in the ATS standings. They have the 3rd most ATS wins with 31. In particular, they are 5-0 ATS as a small fave at home. They are middle of the road as an away dog going 11-13 ATS in that role.

WASHINGTON WIZARDS: As we noted earlier, Washington is the best road team ATS with a 19-9 record. They’re also good as a dog of 10 points or more, showing a 13-7 ATS record. Where they’re bad is at home, with a 10-16 ATS record overall.