NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 12/28

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Thank you to the one and only 2Lock for covering me yesterday! We had another great NBA slate and members are making ground on building bankrolls and already taking down tournaments!

We also lead by example and play exactly what we write/discuss in Discord – shoutout the 2Lock for this hit!

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Looking into today’s NBA slate, it’s important to keep up with the news – we have another shorthanded Houston Rockets team as John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and others continue to quarantine, along with the possibility of Kevin Durant sitting out, and news to follow on a certain duo in LA in LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Let’s get to it:

Point Guards

Trae Young ($9,800 FD / $9,500 DK)

Despite only having five games on today’s NBA slate, the group of elite point guards is not shallow, beginning with the man out of Atlanta. Trae Young has been on an absolute tear two games into the season, averaging 36.5/4.5/8 on 55.6% shooting across 30.5 minutes per game. Playing a Detroit team that averages over 48 FPPG allowed to the point position and lining up versus rookie Killian Hayes, Trae will be able to do whatever he wants on the offensive end of the ball tonight.

*Edit* After Kyrie Irving got announced OUT, I am now locking in one of, if not both Trae Young and Ja Morant in every lineup.

Kyrie Irving ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)

It doesn’t take too long to get some news in our player pool with Kyrie Irving possibly suiting up for the first time without Kevin Durant tonight. The latter, who is coming off a gruesome achilles injury, will likely be sitting on the second half of their back-to-back, leaving Kyrie running the offense on his own. Potentially without Spencer Dinwiddie as well, Kyrie has a 34.8% usage rate with these teammates off the court and will be lining up on sophomore Ja Morant, who has been one of the worst defenders DVP in his young NBA career in addition to being turnover prone. OUT

Damian Lillard ($9,400 FD / $10,300 DK)

The forgotten about stud at the position, Dame has been ice cold to start the season – but can break out at any time – and I will be there for it when it happens. While the other three targets at the position are a priority for me over Dame, his volume is simply undeniable for his upside: in their last game versus Houston, Dame dropped a whopping 32/5/9 despite only shooting 11/28 from the field and 5/13 from deep. Should he improve his efficiency from the field and hit the deck much harder in his mid-range, look out.

*Edit* Underrated stud still not pulling ownership after Kyrie Irving was ruled OUT

Ja Morant ($8,500 FD / $8,300 DK)

One of 3-max entries will consist of Harden and the point guard battle in this game. Ja is on a mission to set the league on fire after an impressive rookie campaign and having led the Grizzlies to a play-in position for the playoffs in the West. Playing a relentless number of minutes, Morant is already averaging 36/2.5/8 in the first two games of the season and has a 35.1% usage rate.

*Edit* See Trae Young edit

Honorable Mention: Jamal Murray ($7,100 FD / $7,100 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,200 DK)

The most prolific scorer of our generation is a lock on this NBA slate – again. There are no statistics that need to be mentioned here, just play the man. The Rockets will be undermanned again, and he’ll carry them all night long. Last game: 34.3% usage rate, 1.82 FPPM, 44/4/17. 44 points. 17 assists. Are you kidding me?

Dennis Schroder ($6,000 FD / $6,100 DK)

This play hinges on the fact that LeBron sits on the second half of a back-back, but we like to take a stab at where the news will likely trend when writing up plays and follow up afterward. Specifically if Bron sits, Schroder will see a significant bump in usage and work on the offensive side of the ball as he runs the pick ‘n roll with AD and will be relied upon to be the second scoring option.

FD Special: Dillon Brooks ($3,700)

DK Special: Svi Mykhailiuk ($3,600)

Small Forwards

Caris LeVert ($6,300 FD / $6,600 DK)

Similarly to Kyrie Irving, Caris LeVert is in a great spot with Brooklyn injury news to follow. With KD and Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor, LeVert has a whopping 32.8% usage rate as he has been relied upon to run the second unit with Dinwiddie getting the start early this season. With the highest over/under on the NBA slate and with how fast both teams play, I certainly want to attack this one, and LeVert will be a big piece of that.

*Edit* Lock of the slate with James Harden

Jerami Grant ($5,700 FD / $5,900 DK)

These Detroit players have been quite the gems for us early in this NBA season. See what I did there? Gems? Ghost’s Gems. Dad jokes aside, Jerami Grant is finally getting to thrive in an offensive role on a depleted Detroit team after being relied upon solely for his defensive ability in Denver. He’s a strong rebounder, quietly an underappreciated wing defender, and will see a ton of minutes with Blake Griffin out.

Josh Jackson ($4,300 FD / $4,200 DK)

See above – Detroit will be a primary spot for me to get value on this NBA slate and Josh Jackson has been a Win Daily special early in the season. Getting this guy at 0.5% ownership on a 13-game slate was no surprise, but I trust the model 100% and saw Jackson go for 10x value after being a Top-5 value play in our model. With how depleted Detroit is tonight, specifically with Derrick Rose out, Jackson gives us a great option at a terrible SF position.

Houston Rockets Value

Both Danuel House ($4,100 FD / $4,800 DK) and Jae’Sean Tate ($4,200 FD / $4,100 DK) will see an uptick in minutes with the Rockets being heavily undermanned. With everyone flocking to Danuel House and Sterling Brown on their first game, we were the only ones to have Tate this high in our model and saw him run for 24 DK, good for 8x his minimum price value, at 2% ownership, and outscoring Brown, Nwaba, and House – not bad if I do say so myself. Now, with Tate being more expensive than the others, I’m curious to see where the ownership lands on this NBA slate.

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis ($10,200 FD / $10,100 DK)

Possibly being with LeBron James tonight, AD is in a smash spot. Portland has struggled out of the gate defending bigs, and AD is one of the best to do it in the NBA. A whopping 35.3% usage rate with Bron off the court, AD will have his way with Jusuf Nurkic and Enes Kanter in the paint.

Christian Wood ($8,100 FD / $7,200 DK)

A key focal point in our NBA lineups just a few days ago, Christian Wood is still too cheap here versus Denver. Yes, Jokic is a tough matchup inside. But with the number of minutes this guy is slated to play, he’ll find a way to crush again, especially with backup center Mason Plumlee now in Detroit. Rocking a 27.7% usage rate is nothing eye-popping under normal circumstances, but when you’re sharing the court with James Harden, it is. A 31/13 repeat performance is possible, but even if Wood trends in the 25/10 range, we’ll more than we need out of him at these prices.

Bonus Play: Sekou Doumbouya ($3,500 FD / $3,400 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,000 FD / $9,800 DK)

Another stud that is going to get overlooked on this NBA slate, The Joker is in a prime spot to smash the Houston Rockets. The key? He’s game proof because he’s able to play versus small-ball lineups with his perimeter defending and offensive game. The best passing big man in the game, Jokic is averaging a 26.5/12/12 triple-double in his first two games – if you don’t believe me when I call him a walking triple-double every time I reference him, you will eventually. Game stack this one with Harden/Wood/Jokic.

Clint Capela ($6,500 FD / $5,900 DK)

Making his season debut, I will be overweight on an unowned Clint Capela should we have the news saying he is a full-go with no minutes restriction. Seeing John Collins struggle at the ‘5’ and consistently get into foul trouble has been quite frustrating, but Capela is the piece the Hawks need right now to run the pick ‘n roll with one of the league’s best passers in Trae Young since rookie Onyeka Okongwu is still dealing with injuries.

Bonus Play: Mason Plumlee ($6,000 FD / $5,700 DK): The Win Daily gem…

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost