NBA

NBA Thursday 1/28 Core Four

After a pretty frustrating slate (looking SQUARELY at you, Clint Capela), we turn the page to a much more streamlined four game slate. We have a game that is incredible right off the bat with the Blazers and Rockets. There’s also the B squads for the Clippers and Heat squaring off, so this is an interesting slate. Let’s dive in and figure out who makes for the best plays of the slate in the NBA Thursday 1/28 Core Four to find the green!

Core Four

Damian Lillard ($10,600 DK/$9,700 FD) – He is the highest salaried player on DK, and he really should be. Both teams are in the top 13 in pace on the season and the Blazers continue to not believe in defense. Lillard has 124 minutes with C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Robert Covington all out tonight and he’s rocking a 30.3% usage rate and a 1.25 FPPM. Dame is the pick and roll ball handler the fifth-most possessions this season and the Rockets are tied for dead last in points per possession to the PnR ball handler. This is an elite spot for Dame Time to go nuts. On FD, the price is disrespectful and not even a question. Even on DK, I’m in.

Carmelo Anthony ($5,600 DK/$5,200 FD) – We’re not going far because we can get another night of vintage Melo in this spot. In the same scenario of who’s missing for Portland, Melo has played 146 minutes and is only behind Dame in usage at 27.5% and a 0.92 FPPM. Even better was seeing him be on the floor for 34 minutes last game, while posting almost 40 fantasy points. He gets the same up-tempo spot that Lillard does and this is the premier game stack of the evening.

Christian Wood ($9,500 FD) – I said this was a great game to stack and I’m sticking with it…. on FD. Wood is due back from a sprained ankle and he says he’s 100%. With the amount of minutes DeMarcus Cousins has played lately, I think Wood walks right back into his normal run of 33 minutes per game. Wood sits 11th in paint touches, which leaves him on Enes Kanter and Harry Giles. Good luck with that fellas. Both of these teams are in the bottom four in rebounds per game, and Wood averages 17.3 rebounding chances per game. That’s 11th in the league and I’m loving this three man mini stack. If we get enough value, I’d love to run Deandre Ayton with him as a double center on DK. We’ll see if that happens or not.

The reason I said I’m lily only playing Wood on FD is because DK has done the unthinkable. They have priced Anthony Davis under $9,000. AD could be play the early 2000’s Pistons and I. Wouldn’t. Care. This man should NEVER be priced below $9,000 on DK. EVER. If people want to fade him, let them. Yes, the Lakers should steamroll the Pistons. AD will be one of the main reasons why and he’s going to eat poor PlumDawg alive. Davis just put up 47 DK points while shooting 5-16 and only scoring 17 real points. Need I say more?

I feel like DK just taunted us and somehow knew that AD would get ruled out. I don’t care for it, I know that. Markieff Morris takes his place on DK because he’s minimum price and has positionally flexibility.

Terrance Mann ($5,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – Mann is a great fit on both sites but especially FD where we need two shooting guards. He played right about 34 minutes last game and put up 30+ DK despite shooting just eight times. Those are the kinds of players I love because they can produce without scoring a bunch. If he scores more this game, the ceiling could be higher. With the Clippers being so short and still only playing Lou Williams about 22 minutes, Mann checks in as a great salary saver again tonight, as DK has priced up the Clippers to an extreme. On FD, Reggie Jackson will also be hard to get away from and I’m fine with both of them together.

Thank you for reading NBA Thursday 1/28 Core Four and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/27

If big slates aren’t your favorite, this isn’t going to be the funnest slate ever. I would also highly recommend checking out Tiers contests. Let the model do the work for you and the choices be cut down. We have a sprawling 12 game slate on tap and it can be overwhelming. Remember to not try and fit every single player and refer to the model when deciding between two players that are close in price. That’s how I do it every night and when deciding for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/27 it will be no different to try and find the green screens!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Injury Report

Pacers – Damontas Sabonis (Q)

Pistons – Blake Griffin (O)

Cavaliers – Larry Nance (Q)

Hawks – Cam Reddish (Q)

Heat – Jimmy Butler (O), Goran Dragic (Q), Tyler Herro (Q)

Raptors – Pascal Siakam (Q)

Wizards – We expect Russell Westbrook to be out, and they still have very limited bodies

Thunder – Al Horford (Q), George Hill (Q)

Suns – Devin Booker (O)

Mavericks – They could get players back from Covid tonight

Wolves – KAT (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q), Jarrett Culver (O)

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($9,300 DK/$9,600 FD) – Steph Curry ($9,200 DK/$9,600) – I will never tell you that Luka Doncic isn’t in play at the high end. However, this is the perfect spot for Steph. The Wolves are terrible, and shouldn’t blow out the Warriors. Minnesota also has the mix we look for at a high pace and poor defense, top 10 and bottom 10 respectively. They also rank in the bottom 10 in three point field goal percentage given up. Steph’s 31.7% usage and 1.39 FPPM should shine in this spot, and with these teams third and sixth in pace Steph won’t be the last one we see. It’s a great late hammer and the price on both sites is quite low.

That’s what I wrote two nights ago and it’s a carbon copy. DK only moved his price $100 and it’s just super easy to want to play him, as he posted 50+ on both sites last game.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 DK/$8,300 FD) – I like him either way but if Sabonis is out tonight, I would argue Brogdon is more of a priority than Steph at the position. With Sabonis, TJ Warren and Victor Oladipo off the floor, Brogdon is sporting a massive 1.70 FPPM with a 33% usage rate. To get that kind of production for under $9,000 is impossible to ignore. Both these teams sit between 17 and 20 in pace, but there’s no way we can skip Brogdon if he’s the whole show for Indy tonight.

Chris Paul ($7,600 DK/$7,400 FD) – Another player benefiting from a teammate missing, CP3 is going to be a focus on FD especially. His price is not really high enough on either site and he took 20 shots last game without Devin Booker. With almost 170 minutes in the sample size, Paul is just over a 1.20 FPPM and a 23.6% usage, a bump of 2%. The Thunder are top 12 in pace and it’s always possible Paul wants some “revenge” on the Thunder (not really buying that but CP3 holds grudges man).

Cole Anthony ($5,500 DK/$5,000 FD) – The rookie is starting to look a bit more comfortable in the offense and has scored at least 13 real points in three of the last four. This is the spot that we love so much because the Kings are a DFS dream. They sit ninth in pace and give up the second-most real points in the league. Additionally, the Kings are 12th worst in points per possession to pick and roll ball handlers. Only Trae Young is ahead of Anthony among players with 10 games or more in frequency of that play type.

Honorable Mention – Luka, Kemba Walker

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($10,200 DK/$10,300 FD) – It’s such a huge slate that I don’t think we need to prioritize Beal. However, if Westbrook sits as expected, there’s nothing wrong with playing him either. We’ve used Raul Neto a lot too, but be cautious about his minutes. Beal is rocking a 39.1% usage rate and a 1.63 FPPM without Westy on the floor, and the Wizards will still be low on bodies. The price is high but fair and I don’t expect Eric Bledsoe or Lonzo Ball to be able to defend him in any way.

Fred VanVleet ($7,900 DK/$7,900 FD) – I would back off if Siakam ends up playing, but FVV would be a solid target if not. Only Chris Boucher is better in FPPM than FVV, who sits at 1.18 FPPM. I always love targeting three point shooters against the Bucks. They sit in the bottom 10 in frequency allowed and bottom five in percentage from deep at about 38%. VanVleet is fifth in three pointers attempted per game on the season, making this a perfect spot to hit a whole bunch of them. Milwaukee sitting at seventh in pace doesn’t hurt the matchup either. You could also drop down to Norman Powell who has seen his minutes maxed out with Siakam out. Powell has a 24.6% usage rate with Siakam off the floor.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,800 DK/$5,500 FD) – Any Pelican is in the discussion against the Wizards who will be on a back to back, play at the fastest pace in the league and allow the most real points in the NBA. We don’t exactly set out to play Bledsoe on a nightly basis but the 20% usage rate and 0.87 is fine at this level. I would likely use him only on FD since we need two. There’s not a ton I can say about Bledsoe positively as a fantasy player, it’s more the suspected matchup and salary.

Jeremy Lamb ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – We’ve only seen Lamb for about 100 minutes so far, but the 22.7% usage rate and 1.01 FPPM is pretty solid for the pricing right now. It actually jumps up to 1.18 without Sabonis on the floor, but does come with an 82.8% true shooting rate. The Pacers have shown a willingness to play him 30 minutes when it’s needed and he could be a solid tag team partner with Brogdon if Sabonis is out.

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, D’Angelo Russell (if active), Tyler Herro (if active)

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,000 DK/$7,500 FD) – He’s not a must on DK at all, but he really feels like a need on FD because when can we get Ingram at $7,500? He leads the team at a 28.7% usage and leads in assist rate. There’s nobody that could really defend him on the wing and and he’s not even taking as many three pointers as he did last year. This is way too good a spot and such a sweetheart price, it seems hard to fade. If I’m planning on using a Brogdon and CP3 combo at point guard, I will likely eschew any SF higher than Ingram tonight.

Evan Fournier ($6,400 DK/$5,900 FD) – He’s likely out of my price range on DK, but he’s a perfect compliment to Ingram on FD. Fournier is still under $6,000 and gets the same Kings spot the we love. It’s kind of crazy to see him with a 27.6% usage rate from Fournier when Markelle Fultz is off the court, but that’s the 141 minute sample size. The 1.12 FPPM is very solid and this game should be run and gun. It also helps the Kings allow the highest field goal percentage in the league from deep.

De’Andre Hunter ($6,500 DK/$5,400 FD) – Hunter just hasn’t left the court much the past couple of games with 36 and 41 minutes. Brooklyn may have defended well last game, but I’m not buying that yet. They still run at the fifth-highest pace and the Hawks are 11th, so this has the shootout written all over it. Cam Reddish hasn’t been playing the past couple games and without him, Hunter sits at a 0.97 FPPM. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Danilo Gallinari sit as well.

Cam Johnson ($4,800 DK/$4,600 FD) – Johnson checks in as a great cheap option and he actually has the highest sample size without Booker on the floor at 166 minutes. He’s got a 1.01 FPPM and a 23.2% usage rate. Now, a good chunk of that is second team usage but if he’s playing 35 minutes a night he’s going to have times when he can rack up usage. Johnson took 16 shots last game and is a nice salary saver.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre

Power Forward

Jayson Tatum ($8,700 DK/$9,600 FD) – Tatum should never be under $9,000 on DK, and he played 31 minutes in his first game back from Covid. He did only score 39 DK points but he was short on his minutes and was under his seasonal averages across the board. Tatum and Brown both have about a 30% usage and a 1.30 FPPM, and Tatum gets to face LaMarcus Aldridge down low. Have fun LMA.

Zion Williamson ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – This one is fairly simple because Washington is 28th in points in the paint allowed. Zion is seventh in paint touches overall and points scored in the paint. Now we kick in the pace and the poor defense and I’m very interested. I don’t love how Steven Adams is averaging 16 rebounding chances per game. It feels like it’s taking away from Zion a bit but he’s actually at 7.9 boards per game, up from 6.3 last season. Washington is 24th in rebounding and this is the spot for Zion.

Marvin Bagley ($5,700 DK/$6,000 FD) – I certainly don’t trust coach Luke Walton, but if Bagley is going to play these kinds of minutes he’s too cheap. Bagley actually has a 23.3% usage which is second among starters, but has only turned it into a 0.99 FPPM right now. Part of that is off court stuff, but the results have started to come a bit with the minutes. Bagley has played 30, 29 and 36 in the past three contests. The matchup isn’t the easiest but they need him to help deal with Vuc and Aaron Gordon tonight.

Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,400 DK/$5,400 FD) – We just saw this game and even in just 24 minutes, he hit 31 FD points. Granted, he had two blocks and two steals but this is still a great spot for the young man. He could be a sneaky double-double candidate as the Warriors are 22nd in rebounding on the season. The Wolves are even shorter tonight with Culver not playing, and are still down multiple starters.

Honorable Mention – Giannis, Kristaps Porzingis, Daniel Theis

Center

Clint Capela ($9,100 DK/$10,500 FD) – I don’t know if I could justify the price on FD, but on DK he’s my favorite center. Bam Adebayo just produced 67 real points against this Brooklyn defense and Capela has serious upside. He leads the league in rebounding chances per game and is fifth in paint points. It’s hard to ignore just how great this spot is for Capela and I just have trouble getting away from him.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,200 DK/$9,400 FD) – The smash spot for Vuc. He’s rocking a 30.3% usage rate and a 1.40 FPPM without Fultz. Who in the world is going to defend him? Richaun Holmes? Hassan Whiteside? That’s not going to happen. Vucevic can hit some three’s himself (43.5% so far, wowsers) and on either site he’s a dynamite spend up at center. Sacramento is also 20th in points allowed in the paint and 27th in rebounding. Vucevic checks every single box.

Andre Drummond ($8,400 DK/$8,800 FD) – At some point, the Cavaliers are going to want to get back to featuring Andre Drummond. I know they have Jarrett Allen now but they need to do what they can to get the price up for Drum in trades. He should play 30 or so here and he should also obliterate Detroit. It’s a “revenge” game, although Drum holds no ill will towards the Pistons. The only time he faced them he scored 60+ DK but played 44 minutes. Detroit is 21st in rebounding and 22nd in points in the paint. A sub-$9,000 Drummond is attractive.

Note – There’s not a ton of spend down options yet. Naz Reid, Steven Adams and maybe DeAndre Jordan are on the radar, but not enough to write up. Let’s see how the day breaks.

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Tuesday 1/26 Core Four

Thank goodness last night’s slate is behind us. We had stars sitting, games getting postponed after lock…anything you could imagine. Surely, there will be some chaos tonight but it can’t be as bad as last night. There’s a three game slate on tap and we already know there’s two big name players out in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Let’s see what else we’re dealing with in the NBA Tuesday 1/26 Core Four to keep in the green tonight!

Injury Report

Clippers – Paul George (O), Kawhi Leonard (O), Patrick Beverly (O)

Hawks – Clint Capela (Q), Trae Young (Q), Danilo Gallinari (Q), Cam Reddish (Q)

Wizards – Could still be down to basically nine players

Rockets – Christian Wood (D)

DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000 DK/$7,200 FD) – The DK price is laughable here as we’ve seen just how much Cousins can do when Wood is out. His true shooting rate is just 44.4% without Wood over the course of 199 minutes. The usage is 26.9% and the FPPM is 1.44. The ceiling when the shot is working is near 60 DK, as evidenced by the last game. Oh, this would be a good time to mention that he’s logged 30 and 33 minutes the past two games and gets Washington. They play at the fastest pace in basketball and don’t have a single big to hang with Boogie. This is beyond a smash spot and I’m locking him in and not looking back, even with Victor Oladipo back.

Bradley Beal ($9,900 DK/$10,300 FD) – I’m going right back to the well here on Beal. Not only did he manage 45 DK as a floor game, he only shot 30% from three and took just three free throws. Beal sits fourth in the league in free throw attempts at 8.9 per game. Houston is in the top 10 in pace, making this a dynamite spot overall since both teams are in the bottom 12 in points surrendered. Now that he has a game back under his legs, I fully expect Beal to get right back to flirting with 60 DK.

Jerome Robinson ($4,000 DK/$3,600 FD) – Robinson is in play if Raul Neto plays and if Neto can’t go, Robinson likely has an even higher ceiling. He played some minutes at the three last game (shouts to the man Ghost for that information) so the minutes should be safe. I would suspect Russell Westbrook still is on some type of limitation after just 25 minutes. Robinson put up 15 shots across 35 minutes. That’s plenty and the Wizards are going to continue to be shorthanded tonight again. With a minimal price raise on DK, we could be looking at another 7x game. I also am totally on board for Alex Len on DK with his salary barely moving and getting 20 minutes.

Update – Westbrook is limited tonight again, so Robinson is full go inn my eyes.

Lou Williams ($5,800 DK/$6,000 FD) – We have very little to go on with PG and Kawhi both off the floor. The highest are Reggie Jackson and Luke Kennard, both around 70-ish minutes. Since we got news the Clippers would be missing their stars, the role players are priced VERY aggressively. Sweet Lou has taken a step back this season, but we know the scoring upside he has any given game. If he doesn’t start, this would be adjusted. As of now, he does have a 26.4% usage in 33 minutes without the two studs around and someone has to be the primary scorer. He’s $1,000 cheaper than Reggie Jackson, which doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

We’re moving to Marcus Morris since Lou is still not starting. I’m not comfortable enough with him to make him a core piece.

Thank you for reading NBA Tuesday 1/26 Core Four and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/25

Here we go again with a huge slate of 10 games, and NBA is going to take center stage now that NFL is just about over. The best thing to do on slates like this is to try and block out the noise. Everyone has the same salary restrictions and player slots. There will undoubtedly be players that we want but don’t have in the lineup. Just stay with the decision you make and let’s talk about which we’re making in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/25!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Injury Report

Philadelphia – Joel Embiid (Q)

Detroit – Derrick Rose (O)

Toronto – Kyle Lowry (Q), Pascal Siakam (Q)

Orlando – Aaron Gordon (Q)

Miami – Jimmy Butler (O), Tyler Herro (O)

Boston – Kemba Walker (O)

Chicago – Wendell Carter (D)

Minnesota – D’Angelo Russell (Q)

Oklahoma City – Al Horford (Q)

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($9,200 DK/$9,600) – I will never tell you that Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic aren’t in play at the high end. However, this is the perfect spot for Steph. The Wolves are terrible, and shouldn’t blow out the Warriors. Minnesota also has the mix we look for at a high pace and poor defense, top 10 and bottom 10 respectively. They also rank in the bottom 10 in three point field goal percentage given up. Steph’s 31.7% usage and 1.39 FPPM should shine in this spot, and with these teams third and sixth in pace Steph won’t be the last one we see. It’s a great late hammer and the price on both sites is quite low.

Dejounte Murray ($6,500 DK/$7,600 FD) – He’s priced wildly differently on each site, but Murray is a solid mid-range target on DK. I will not be surprised to see the Spurs sit someone on a back to back. Even if they do not, Murray only played 30 minutes and sports a healthy 23% usage rate and a 1.12 FPPM. Lonzo Ball has consistently gotten worse on defense every year and Murray can fill the stat sheet. He technically had a triple-double last night, even though it was just barely. Still, he’s the kind of guard we like that’s not totally reliant on points.

Goran Dragic ($6,200 DK/$5,800 FD) – Am I likely to use him? Probably not since Kendrick Nunn is right in the same price range but Dragic does bring some safety to the lineup. The veteran and Bam Adebayo both share the usage rate lead at 28% and only Bam has a higher FPPM than 1.09 for Dragic. He’s really more of a FD play but we all know how bad the Nets are at defending anything or anyone right now.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – I have to believe we’ll find some value (maybe from Boston specifically) but for now, Bledsoe is as close to low as I’d really like to go. He’s back to playing 32-34 minutes a night and that is very encouraging. Don’t expect the 40 FD again but the Spurs travel and play at the 10th fastest pace. That’s going to suit the Pelicans, who have run slow this season. Bledsoe sits at a 20% stage rate and a 0.87 FPPM. He and Lonzo Ball are mirror images of each other, but never Lonzo in cash.

Honorable Mention – Luka, Dame, Malcolm Brogdon, Cole Anthony

Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,100 DK/$8,100 FD) – It’s astounding to me that James Harden is under $10,000 and I don’t have a big need to play him. Also, if the Raptors are short, Fred VanVleet is a smash play and the chalk at the high-end of the position. If it’s business as normal, consider SGA tonight. We always like targeting the Blazers (unless you’re the Knicks I guess) and that maintains tonight. They’ll be on back to backs, not helping the defense at all and the Thunder match the pace with 12 and 13 for each squad. The 1.12 FPPM isn’t exactly special, but the 27.7% is far and away tops on the team. SGA is fourth in average seconds per touch in the league and it’s only a mater of time before that translates to more fantasy points consistently.

Kendrick Nunn ($6,100 DK/$6,500 FD) – Rinse and repeat for Nunn. The Heat are still in the same spot and Nunn played another 32 minutes last game. He actually scored fewer than 20 real points for the first time in the last three games and playing 35 minutes or around that is going to work out well more often than not. Nunn does break our rule as someone who is very reliant on his real points but Miami needs a scorer with the absence of Butler and Herro. I’m still on board for the GPP fade but the cash games he is still a very strong option.

Note – This position really depends on Raptors. Not only does it have FVV, but Norman Powell is a SG as well. We could play both if Lowry and Siakam are out, but don’t know that yet. Marcus Smart is in the running as well, but let’s make sure Jayson Tatum is in (as he’s supposed to be). As always, I can get on board with Seth Curry on FD as a cheapie and he hit 24 FD last game without even hitting a three pointer. Updates will be coming tomorrow.

Small Forward

Jerami Grant ($7,800 DK/$8,400 FD) – On DK, I’ll likely gravitate here but FD will be the next player. Grant is really slightly underpriced for DK and he’s coming off putting up 32 DK with only 11 real points. Blake Griffin is in line to be back but Rose is still out and Grant took 19 shots last game. Everything flows through him when Rose is off the floor, with a 26.8% usage and a 1.11 FPPM. The matchup on the glass would get even better if Embiid winds up out, and Grant is ninth in the NBA in minutes.

Brandon Ingram ($8,000 DK/$7,700 FD) – The Pelicans have been disappointing and Ingram hasn’t been perfect…but under $8,000 in this spot? Sign me up. I think the Spurs will have trouble defending Ingram and he gets 35 minutes per contest. The pace suits BI and he leads the starting unit in assist rate. Ingram also takes about 20% of his shots from the 20-24 foot range and the Spurs are in the bottom eight in field goal percentage allowed. The price is just far too low on FD.

Michael Porter Jr. ($6,600 DK/$6,400 FD) – Denver kind of needs to get moving here as far as the standings go, and are coming off two big wins against the Suns. They are now fifth in the West but were 10th three games ago. For all of MPJ’s issues (defensively for sure), he needs to be in the starting lineup and given heavy minutes. Losing Grant has turned out to be a bigger deal than many thought. MPJ played 35 minutes last game and while it was double OT, he proved he can do it. Nobody on this team has more than MPJ’s 1.17 FPPM on the year past Nikola Jokic and his usage is 20.2%. Neither teams play at a high pace, but neither did the Suns.

Doug McDermott ($5,500 DK/$4,500 FD) – This is mostly a FD only pick, but Dougie McBuckets is logging some serious minutes right now. The past four games he’s been pegged between 32-36 minutes and has double-digit points in every single game. The Raptors allow the fifth-highest frequency of three pointers, which can lead to McDermott getting very hot from deep very quickly. We don’t get players that get this amount of minutes and can actually score very often.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Evan Fournier (if Gordon is out)

Power Forward

Bam Adebayo ($8,500 DK/$9,600 FD) – Let me stress this – play. Bam. Adebayo. Tonight. 

Got it? Alright, now let’s talk about why. I already mentioned ad nauseam how bad the Nets have been. Where they’ve struggled to a frightening degree is in the paint. In the past two games, they have given up 134 points in the paint. ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY FOUR. I get they had two overtimes mixed in but my sweet Christmas man. Someone get a hand up in the lane! Bam already is 12th in the league in points in the paint and carries a 27% usage and a 1.41 FPPM with Jimmy Buckets off the floor. I’ll say it again – play Bam Adebayo tonight.

Does that sound familiar? It should, because that’s what I wrote for Saturday. All Bam did was go out and drop 41 real points and 62 DK. They decided to not raise his price even $100. If DK had jacked him up to $9,800, I’d talk about fading. I’m not doing it at the current price on that site. On FD, it’s a much bigger discussion since he, Jayson Tatum and Damontas Sabonis are all the same price. I still lean Bam as the highest ceiling. Sabonis is more of a floor play on a back to back and Tatum hasn’t played in a hot minute (despite the goat matchup).

Anthony Davis ($9,200 DK/$10,100 FD) – I’ll have a tough time getting there on FD, but the DK price is still silly for AD. I know he’s been more floor than ceiling, but crushed the Chicago front court for 55 DK in just 28 minutes. As much as I love Sabonis, AD is the better play on DK given the salaries because Andre Drummond isn’t doing squat to stop AD. Neither is Jarrett Allen, nor anyone else for Cleveland. Davis should be able to score at will and they are only 19th in rebounding on the season.

Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,000 DK/$5,400 FD) – If you got some sticker shock from the Naz Reid price, consider Vanderbilt. I wish he had a few more minutes under his belt the past couple games but things seem to be clicking. He recorded a double-double last game out and this is a good spot to do it again. Golden State is 22nd in rebounding so he’s got chances on the glass and he’s taken a combined 23 shots the past two games. With KAT and Juancho still out, Vanderbilt should push for 25 minutes tonight in an excellent spot.

Daniel Theis ($4,800 DK/$4,700 FD) – I don’t think he posts another massive game like last night, but it’s another soft spot for the Boston big man. We target Chicago constantly with their high pace (second) and poor defense (third-worst). Both teams are mid-pack in rebounding numbers on the season and we know Theis does have some ceiling. The Bulls are 21st in points in the paint allowed and Theis comes awfully cheap.

Honorable Mention – Kristaps Porzingis, Zion, Draymond Green (FD), Isaiah Roby (if Horford is out)

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,800 DK/$11,200 FD) – Finally under $11,000 on DK, Joker gets another sweetheart spot tonight. Dallas doesn’t have the bodies to keep up with him unless Porzingis plays center all night. I suppose that’s possible but it still wouldn’t deter me. I thought MPJ might knock the ceiling for Jokic but he averages right about 1.70 FPPM and the same 30% usage rate with him on the floor through 131 minutes together. Frankly, having a player that talented helps with assists if nothing else. This is a marquee game and a big showdown in the West, and Joker is lower than he’s been.

James Wiseman ($5,400 DK/$4,900 FD) – He makes his first (I think) appearance in the cash article, but this is the spot. The young man has been difficult to peg, but not tonight. He’s getting around 24 minutes and Minnesota is 18th and 21st in paint points and boards allowed. Wiseman averages 4.4 paint touches and over four points per game in the paint, making this a solid spot for the rookie. He’s rocking a 1.10 FPPM so far with a 24.4% usage rate, second-best behind Steph. I’m either all the way up or punting center on FD, and looking strongly at Bam/Wiseman on DK.

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/24

It would be nice if we got a calmer slate than last night. The amount of players that were missing, questionable, and late news combined for a hectic night. We do know that one of the 10 teams is going to be very short-handed and will be extremely chalky in the Washington Wizards. Past that, we have some other interesting paths to look at to try and find the green in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/24!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Injury Report

Boston – Jayson Tatum (O), Payton Pritchard (O)

Washington – If Russell Westbrook and Raul Neto are out, they have 10 players and two were just signed. For that reason, I’m not going to list off each individual Wizard value. All of them are in play for cash and if Washington is down to eight, we’ll need three or four in cash.

San Antonio – Dejounte Murray

Point Guard

Trae Young ($9,400 DK/$10,000 FD) – He’s questionable but has been through most of the season. The Hawks take on the Bucks, who play at the seventh-fastest pace in the league. They allow a three point attempt about 40% of the time and that should possibly help Young find the stroke from deep. What’s interesting is you would think with Giannis and Brook Lopez, they wouldn’t be susceptible to pick and roll ball handlers. Yet, they are the eighth-worst team in points given up to the ball handler. Young has the second-highest frequency in that play type behind only Cole Anthony of the Magic. I’m likelier to play him on DK than FD.

Damian Lillard ($10,000 DK/$9,700 FD) – If it’s Young on DK, it’s mostly going to be Dame Time on FD just because of the pricing. Yes, I get the Knicks are playing well defensively but this is still Dame without CJ McCollum. In the 146 minutes with CJ and Jusuf Nurkic on the floor, Dame has a 31.2% usage rate and a 1.35 FPPM. New York is 30th in pace, not ideal but counterbalance that aspect with three pointers. They allow the fourth-highest frequency in the NBA, and Lillard drives over 15 times per game. The Knicks are 0.4% away from being eighth in attempts allowed within five feet.

Kemba Walker ($6,300 DK/$6,800 FD) – I’m not typically a Kemba guy but Boston is still without Tatum and obviously Gordon Hayward. Since Kemba has come back, he has a 36% usage rate and a 1.32 FPPM, while his true shooting is 49.5%. It’s taking a little time to get his shooting legs back under him, but he’s now been cleared to play about 28 minutes. Collin Sexton is still not a great defender and Kemba is a safe (not a ceiling) pick here.

Honorable Mention – The value plays will sort themselves out. We could turn to Washington, we could possibly play Patty Mills if Murray is out. There’s going to be options and there’s a good chance I spend on Young or Dame.

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($10,100 DK/$10,300 FD) – Beal is priced through the roof but with the Wizards being so short, I can’t see wanting to fade him. I suppose you could argue he won’t be in game shape but that’s not holding enough water for me. Even if it’s just Westbrook out from the questionable group, Beal averages 1.64 FPPM and a 37.5% usage rate. He’s basically Luka Doncic. With the value at hand, he’ll be one of my primary targets and safest bets on the board.

DeMar DeRozan ($7,600 DK/$7,700 FD) – If Murray is out, DDR is hard to pass up as well. Lest we forget, Washington plays at the fastest pace in basketball and is in the bottom two in defensive rating. DDR has a 28.4% usage rate and a 1.31 FPPM, both of which lead the team. He’ll be the main playmaker against one of the best matchups on the board. There’s not much more to breakdown than that.

Cam Reddish ($4,900 DK/$4,500 FD) – Reddish is quite the bargain on FD and sets up as a good spot to take advantage of. After missing games with a knee issue, he still played 24 minutes and we should expect that to continue. Danilo Gallinari is working his way back, and probably won’t be over 18-20 minutes. If anything, Kevin Huerter would be the one to lose minutes here. Reddish is normally about 28 minutes per game and takes five triples with a 0.88 FPPM. That works at $4,500 on FD especially.

Honorable Mention – Marcus Smart, Collin Sexton

Small Forward

Khris Middleton ($7,800 DK/$7,900 FD) – I’ve been hesitant to target Milwaukee players but a matchup against Atlanta is too good to overlook. Both teams are top 10 in pace and even if the Hawks can’t keep up for the full game, Middleton would be one of the reasons it gets ugly. He’s second on the team with a 1.23 FPPM and has about a 25% usage rate on the season. Both teams are also in the bottom 10 in three pointers per game allowed, and this would be right in Middleton’s wheelhouse for a big game.

R.J. Barrett ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD) – The second-year player gets a mouth watering matchup against the Blazers. Not only does Portland play at the 13th fastest pace, they sport the third-worst defensive rating in hoops. Barrett never comes off the floor with the sixth-most minutes in the league and a 23.9% usage rate. The shot is always a little scary to trust and the price is up high, but the Blazers matchup is too good to not be interested in.

Carmelo Anthony ($4,800 DK/$4,100 FD) – Melo is more of a place holder for now. I’ll admit, we likely have way chalkier value with Washington. We still need to know exactly who’s available before deciding to play. Regardless, I’d still be totally fine playing Melo. He’s playing 26-28 minutes with the Blazers injury situation and has scored in the double digits for three games straight. If narratives are your thing, I don’t think you’re going to find many better than Melo vs. The Knicks, either.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward

Power Forward

Julius Randle ($9,200 DK/$9,100 FD) – The veteran big man is coming off another said game for the price, and this spot stands out as well. He’s right with Barrett as far as minutes go and averages 22/11 every night. What’s been impressive is the six dimes per night as well. The Blazers have no shot at containing him and if the pace goes high, Randle has even more chances to hit the glass. Portland is 20th in rebounding per night and I will strongly consider playing two of the three “big” Knicks tonight.

Aaron Gordon ($7,400 DK/$7,300 FD) – I feel like he’s going to bite me at this price at some point, but Gordon is getting a boatload of minutes now that he’s healthy and is producing through all aspects. Charlotte is 12th in rebounding so the Magic need him to hit the glass, which he’s had at least nine rebounds the past three games. AG has really stepped up as a bit more of a ball distributor in the absence of Markelle Fultz. His assist rate is 27.6% without Fultz, highest on the team. The FPPM is also 1.14 and nobody but Nikola Vucevic has that beat.

Honorable Mention – We’ll get a value piece to fill in and look for an update with a clearer picture. Daniel Theis is a borderline option right now as the Celtics could use his size on the floor for about 28 minutes tonight. They’re going to have Andre Drummond of Jarrett Allen almost every minute. As an aside, someone trade for Drum so we can get Allen unleashed.

Center

Andre Drummond ($9,300 DK/$8,600 FD) – I’m likely to skip out on DK, but FD he’s under $9,000. Sure, the minutes won’t be redlined like they were. There’s still meat on the bone for this salary. Drummond is fourth in rebounding chances per game and Boston is in the bottom 12 in rebounding per game. They are also 24th in paint points allowed, so Drummond could easily post a quick 14/14 style of line and that could work on FD in cash. I just can’t spend up to $10,000 on Clint Capela.

Mitchell Robinson ($5,800 DK/$5,900 FD) – It can be frustrating to play Robinson on a nightly basis. He doesn’t even look like that great by FPPM at 0.88 so we need to be judicious in where we play him. This spot checks the boxes. As I mentioned, Portland is 20th in rebounding. With Nurkic out, they will continue to drop in points allowed in the paint (they are 10th) but Enes Kanter could struggle a bit with Robinson’s athleticism. Given the pace of the game, we need about 30 fantasy points here and have a very good shot at it. He has some extra chances at blocks with Lillard driving, and just hope fouls don’t get him.

Alex Len ($3,100 DK/$3,500 FD) – Washington is down Thomas Bryant, Mo Wagner and Rui Hachimura. I assume Robin Lopez gets a bunch of minutes, but even if he gets the 25 he did in the last game for the Wizards, someone needs to play the other minutes. Enter Len, who has shown ability to be a fantasy asset if given the chance. My first look is RoLo is kind of pricey, and we might just rather take a shot at Len. Let’s check in with the model tomorrow.

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!