NBA GPP Picks 1/23
We have a seven game NBA main slate for this edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/23. It is a very interesting slate as ten of fourteen teams playing today are on the back end of a back-to-back. There is also a different than normal lock time as we lock at 7PM CST. Brooklyn could be a team to watch as Kevin Durant sat last night it would not surprise me if Kyrie sat tonight. That game Miami vs Brooklyn is currently projected as the highest scoring contest at 232.5 points. A new player was added to the injury report as Devin Booker suffered a Hamstring injury late in last night’s game and is unlikely to play tonight. In my article I will be using DraftKings pricing where Nikola Jokic is our highest priced player at $10,800. My article will consist of two players at each position that I believe has potential major upside based upon the players price and my research. Let’s breakdown these seven games for tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
Point Guard
Jamal Murray – ($6,700)
This is the lowest price that Murray has been this season as he was priced here one other time. That other scenario was against Phoenix who he faces again tonight. Although it seems to be a rather tough matchup in two games against Phoenix Murray is averaging 47 DraftKings points. In those two games he has an average usage of nearly 28% which is 4% above his season average. Jamal has scored over 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games.
Donovan Mitchell – ($7,800)
Seven straight games Mitchell has scored at least 36 fantasy points in large part due to his massive usage. Mithcell is averaging a usage of 32% this season and has a usage of at least 31% in his last four games. Facing the Warriors who rank as the third fastest team in the NBA should only benefit Mitchell. In the four games he has faced teams top ten in pace he has gone for at least 40 fantasy points in three of those. One of those games against Milwaukee he eclipsed 50 fantasy points. With this big pace up spot another night of at least 40 fantasy points is expected.
Shooting Guard
Kendrick Nunn – ($5,600)
With Herro already ruled out and as long as Jimmy Butler is out again, I will play Nunn. He has played at least 34 minutes in the last three games without those two. In those games he is averaging a usage rate of 25%, and averaging just north of 40 fantasy points. A fantastic matchup against Brooklyn who ranks as the fifth fastest team and eighth worst defensively. Three straight games of at least 34.75 fantasy points and that streak will continue if Butler remains out.
Wayne Ellington – ($3,800)
Three straight games now we have seen Ellington on the court for at least 28 minutes. He has made that court time count shooting ten threes per game in those three games. In those three games Ellington’s lowest fantasy output was 24.5 which is amazing value for his current price. A great matchup as Philadelphia is the fourth fastest team this season and has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards. Philly has allowed the second most three pointers made to shooting guards this season which is excellent for a three-point specialist like Ellington.
Small Forward
Lebron James – ($9,400)
At this price I feel Lebron’s floor is extremely safe as he has scored at least 45 fantasy points in 12 of his last 15 games. A pace up spot with Chicago who is the second fastest team should only make it safer. Chicago ranks fourth worst in defensive rating and have given up the third most fantasy points to point guards this season. The Bulls have given up the second highest field goal percentage to opposing point guards. I think this is a fantastic spot for Lebron and like my chances for him to record a triple double here.
Abdel Nader – ($3,000)
Missing majority of the season due to a concussion Nader is finally getting into game shape. He was tied for the most minutes off the bench against Denver last night and now Booker is ruled out. Nader could see a minute’s boost as he has passed Jevon Carter in the rotation. In last night’s game Nader had his highest minute total and a solid usage of 19.1%. We need to monitor who starts for Booker we could have some Minimum salary value. There are several starting options for Phoenix so we will have to wait on the starting lineup. Regardless there is some value as Jevon Carter, Abdel Nader, and Cameron Payne all have potential to see a minutes boost here.
Power Forward
Zion Williamson – ($7,600)
If Minnesota runs the same starting lineup as they have been Zion will have a 70-pound size advantage over Jarred Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt starting has shown as in the last five games Minnesota has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to power forwards. The Wolves have struggled to rebound as they are dead last in defensive rebounding along with third lowest total rebound percentage. A 28% usage rate and a Wolves team rated as the fifth worst defense in the NBA should be a recipe for success.
Cameron Johnson – ($4,400)
Booker suffering an injury and unlikely to play will benefit Cam Johnson. If we take Saric and Booker off the floor Johnson see’s the highest usage increase on the team at 6.1%. Denver has struggled defensively ranking 25th in defensive rating this season. Johnson busted last night and I hope that takes some ownership off him. He played 32 minutes last night and now we are taking away a player averaging a 30% usage rate. That means good things for Johnson as he’s scored 1.14 fantasy points per minute without Saric and Booker this season.
Center
Rudy Gobert – ($7,300)
Four straight double doubles now for Gobert with three of those against very tough centers in Steven Adams (twice), and Nikola Jokic. He draws a much better matchup against the rookie Wiseman here as Golden State has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to centers and contains the second lowest rebound percentage in the league. A huge pace up spot here as well with Golden State ranking the third fastest team on the year. Gobert is averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute this season and he should average that in this fantastic matchup against Golden State.
Demarcus Cousins – ($5,100)
Boogie saw a season high 33 minutes in last night’s game with Detroit. He scored 36 fantasy points while shooting 2-16 from the field which is unlikely to happen again. His usage rate is near 25% on a nightly basis this season. When we take Wood and Wall off the floor this season his usage doesn’t change much but his fantasy points per minutes sits at 1.25. If Boogie surpasses 30 minutes and we look at the FPPM he should smash value again but hopefully with a better shooting night.
Pelicans vs Timberwolves
D’Angelo Russell – 23.5 points – More – His usage rate has been at least 30% all season especially with Towns absent. Point guards against the Pelicans are averaging 36 real points in 48 minutes. Russell should be able to hit this mark, he only played 21 minutes last night as the Wolves got thumped.
Zion Williamson – 23.5 points – More – As I mentioned above If Zion matches up with Jarred Vanderbilt I expect him to bully the much smaller Vanderbilt. Zion is tied for the highest usage on the team at 28%. I love attacking players against Minnesota and Zion should surpass this total with the Wolves minimal rim protection.
Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/23
We have some potential value on tonight’s slate with Booker doubtful due to a Hamstring injury. I mentioned earlier we do have some rest candidates my guess would be Kyrie or Embiid but it’s possible everyone plays too. Keeping up with NBA news is easy if you join myself and Win Daily Sports staff in the Discord Chat rooms. NBA slates can change in the blink of an eye and that is the best place to keep up with our strategies. Check out the projection models as well for all player values! Thanks for reading this edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/23. It will be a busy Saturday with NBA and a UFC card featuring Conor McGregor. Best of luck with your lineups or bets and let’s make some money!
