Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/24
It would be nice if we got a calmer slate than last night. The amount of players that were missing, questionable, and late news combined for a hectic night. We do know that one of the 10 teams is going to be very short-handed and will be extremely chalky in the Washington Wizards. Past that, we have some other interesting paths to look at to try and find the green in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/24!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
Injury Report
Boston – Jayson Tatum (O), Payton Pritchard (O)
Washington – If Russell Westbrook and Raul Neto are out, they have 10 players and two were just signed. For that reason, I’m not going to list off each individual Wizard value. All of them are in play for cash and if Washington is down to eight, we’ll need three or four in cash.
San Antonio – Dejounte Murray
Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,400 DK/$10,000 FD) – He’s questionable but has been through most of the season. The Hawks take on the Bucks, who play at the seventh-fastest pace in the league. They allow a three point attempt about 40% of the time and that should possibly help Young find the stroke from deep. What’s interesting is you would think with Giannis and Brook Lopez, they wouldn’t be susceptible to pick and roll ball handlers. Yet, they are the eighth-worst team in points given up to the ball handler. Young has the second-highest frequency in that play type behind only Cole Anthony of the Magic. I’m likelier to play him on DK than FD.
Damian Lillard ($10,000 DK/$9,700 FD) – If it’s Young on DK, it’s mostly going to be Dame Time on FD just because of the pricing. Yes, I get the Knicks are playing well defensively but this is still Dame without CJ McCollum. In the 146 minutes with CJ and Jusuf Nurkic on the floor, Dame has a 31.2% usage rate and a 1.35 FPPM. New York is 30th in pace, not ideal but counterbalance that aspect with three pointers. They allow the fourth-highest frequency in the NBA, and Lillard drives over 15 times per game. The Knicks are 0.4% away from being eighth in attempts allowed within five feet.
Kemba Walker ($6,300 DK/$6,800 FD) – I’m not typically a Kemba guy but Boston is still without Tatum and obviously Gordon Hayward. Since Kemba has come back, he has a 36% usage rate and a 1.32 FPPM, while his true shooting is 49.5%. It’s taking a little time to get his shooting legs back under him, but he’s now been cleared to play about 28 minutes. Collin Sexton is still not a great defender and Kemba is a safe (not a ceiling) pick here.
Honorable Mention – The value plays will sort themselves out. We could turn to Washington, we could possibly play Patty Mills if Murray is out. There’s going to be options and there’s a good chance I spend on Young or Dame.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($10,100 DK/$10,300 FD) – Beal is priced through the roof but with the Wizards being so short, I can’t see wanting to fade him. I suppose you could argue he won’t be in game shape but that’s not holding enough water for me. Even if it’s just Westbrook out from the questionable group, Beal averages 1.64 FPPM and a 37.5% usage rate. He’s basically Luka Doncic. With the value at hand, he’ll be one of my primary targets and safest bets on the board.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,600 DK/$7,700 FD) – If Murray is out, DDR is hard to pass up as well. Lest we forget, Washington plays at the fastest pace in basketball and is in the bottom two in defensive rating. DDR has a 28.4% usage rate and a 1.31 FPPM, both of which lead the team. He’ll be the main playmaker against one of the best matchups on the board. There’s not much more to breakdown than that.
Cam Reddish ($4,900 DK/$4,500 FD) – Reddish is quite the bargain on FD and sets up as a good spot to take advantage of. After missing games with a knee issue, he still played 24 minutes and we should expect that to continue. Danilo Gallinari is working his way back, and probably won’t be over 18-20 minutes. If anything, Kevin Huerter would be the one to lose minutes here. Reddish is normally about 28 minutes per game and takes five triples with a 0.88 FPPM. That works at $4,500 on FD especially.
Honorable Mention – Marcus Smart, Collin Sexton
Small Forward
Khris Middleton ($7,800 DK/$7,900 FD) – I’ve been hesitant to target Milwaukee players but a matchup against Atlanta is too good to overlook. Both teams are top 10 in pace and even if the Hawks can’t keep up for the full game, Middleton would be one of the reasons it gets ugly. He’s second on the team with a 1.23 FPPM and has about a 25% usage rate on the season. Both teams are also in the bottom 10 in three pointers per game allowed, and this would be right in Middleton’s wheelhouse for a big game.
R.J. Barrett ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD) – The second-year player gets a mouth watering matchup against the Blazers. Not only does Portland play at the 13th fastest pace, they sport the third-worst defensive rating in hoops. Barrett never comes off the floor with the sixth-most minutes in the league and a 23.9% usage rate. The shot is always a little scary to trust and the price is up high, but the Blazers matchup is too good to not be interested in.
Carmelo Anthony ($4,800 DK/$4,100 FD) – Melo is more of a place holder for now. I’ll admit, we likely have way chalkier value with Washington. We still need to know exactly who’s available before deciding to play. Regardless, I’d still be totally fine playing Melo. He’s playing 26-28 minutes with the Blazers injury situation and has scored in the double digits for three games straight. If narratives are your thing, I don’t think you’re going to find many better than Melo vs. The Knicks, either.
Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,200 DK/$9,100 FD) – The veteran big man is coming off another said game for the price, and this spot stands out as well. He’s right with Barrett as far as minutes go and averages 22/11 every night. What’s been impressive is the six dimes per night as well. The Blazers have no shot at containing him and if the pace goes high, Randle has even more chances to hit the glass. Portland is 20th in rebounding per night and I will strongly consider playing two of the three “big” Knicks tonight.
Aaron Gordon ($7,400 DK/$7,300 FD) – I feel like he’s going to bite me at this price at some point, but Gordon is getting a boatload of minutes now that he’s healthy and is producing through all aspects. Charlotte is 12th in rebounding so the Magic need him to hit the glass, which he’s had at least nine rebounds the past three games. AG has really stepped up as a bit more of a ball distributor in the absence of Markelle Fultz. His assist rate is 27.6% without Fultz, highest on the team. The FPPM is also 1.14 and nobody but Nikola Vucevic has that beat.
Honorable Mention – We’ll get a value piece to fill in and look for an update with a clearer picture. Daniel Theis is a borderline option right now as the Celtics could use his size on the floor for about 28 minutes tonight. They’re going to have Andre Drummond of Jarrett Allen almost every minute. As an aside, someone trade for Drum so we can get Allen unleashed.
Center
Andre Drummond ($9,300 DK/$8,600 FD) – I’m likely to skip out on DK, but FD he’s under $9,000. Sure, the minutes won’t be redlined like they were. There’s still meat on the bone for this salary. Drummond is fourth in rebounding chances per game and Boston is in the bottom 12 in rebounding per game. They are also 24th in paint points allowed, so Drummond could easily post a quick 14/14 style of line and that could work on FD in cash. I just can’t spend up to $10,000 on Clint Capela.
Mitchell Robinson ($5,800 DK/$5,900 FD) – It can be frustrating to play Robinson on a nightly basis. He doesn’t even look like that great by FPPM at 0.88 so we need to be judicious in where we play him. This spot checks the boxes. As I mentioned, Portland is 20th in rebounding. With Nurkic out, they will continue to drop in points allowed in the paint (they are 10th) but Enes Kanter could struggle a bit with Robinson’s athleticism. Given the pace of the game, we need about 30 fantasy points here and have a very good shot at it. He has some extra chances at blocks with Lillard driving, and just hope fouls don’t get him.
Alex Len ($3,100 DK/$3,500 FD) – Washington is down Thomas Bryant, Mo Wagner and Rui Hachimura. I assume Robin Lopez gets a bunch of minutes, but even if he gets the 25 he did in the last game for the Wizards, someone needs to play the other minutes. Enter Len, who has shown ability to be a fantasy asset if given the chance. My first look is RoLo is kind of pricey, and we might just rather take a shot at Len. Let’s check in with the model tomorrow.
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