Today starts the seven-game series and we get our first set of game ones for NBA GPP Picks 5/22. Most of the sitting and late scratch shenanigans should be done now. We can’t rule out some Covid protocol stuff so still, be tuned into Discord Chat rooms for this slate. Three of these games are projected at a 227-228 total with only the DAL vs LAC coming in at 218. My builds will start under the 10K range and go for a more balanced build for this first night. I think you can get a ton of usage still well below 10K, I mean we see Kawhi at just 8K. Let’s lock into these playoffs and get into the picks!
For this first round, I will do it a little differently. I will go over each game giving my top plays while considering ownership slightly more for GPP’s due to the smaller slates. This article will be using DraftKings pricing.
Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/22
Miami vs Milwaukee
Miami
Jimmy Butler – ($8,400)
Jimmy is one of those players at a bargain as he was priced at $9,500 toward the end of the year. In seven of his last eight games that he played full minutes, Butler scored 43 or more fantasy points. The Bucks have been the second fastest team in the league this season while Miami has been the second slowest. A massive increase in pace will allow the usage leader for the Heat to pay off this tag easily. The only other player I am looking at for Miami is Herro.
Milwaukee
Jrue Holiday – ($7,700)
First off, the Heat have done well defending Giannis in their three prior matchups and that was without Butler. In those three matchup Holiday, however, has averaged 42.5 fantasy points. That total is reachable again with Miami giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to point guards on the year. In five of his last seven games to close the year Holiday scored 45 or more fantasy points. Given the matchup and playoff minutes, we should see Holiday have a great outing.
Donte DiVincenzo – ($5,100)
This isn’t the prettiest play but all signs point toward it being a safe one for me. In five of six games to end the year Donte saw a usage rate several points above his season average. In that stretch of games, DiVincenzo had gone seven straight games scoring at least 26 fantasy points. Now that playoffs are here, he may get a slight minute increase and play more than 30 minutes which would be a bonus.
Dallas vs LA Clippers
Dallas
Jalen Brunson – ($4,100)
I’m not a huge fan of this game specifically from the Dallas side of the ball. In eight of Brunson’s past nine games, he scored at least 20 fantasy points. In five of those games, Brunson had a usage rate of 22% or greater. Some of those were without Porzingis but it is still a healthy number for a player at this price. This game is the lowest total, so be sure to remember this is for GPP only. I think Richardson could be an option too if you do not play one of the two Dallas stars.
Clippers
Kawhi Leonard – ($8,000)
This is an easy lock button for me. His price is too cheap especially now that he should be seeing playoff minutes toward 36-38 minutes pending game script. Leonard has played Dallas twice this year averaging 46 fantasy points. I know this total is low but these Clipper prices seem even lower. In my eyes, you should play either Kawhi or PG13 in your lineup. Both would work as one-off pieces where they are your only piece of this game.
Boston vs Brooklyn
Boston
Kemba Walker – ($7,500)
Since Jaylen Brown got hurt Kemba is averaging above a 31% usage rate. In seven of those eight games, Walker has scored at least 39 fantasy points flashing a ceiling above 50. His minutes were in question the majority of the season. It is playoff time though and he played 40 minutes at the end of the year. The Nets play at the eleventh fastest pace and rank in the bottom ten of defensive rating this season. Kawhi and Kemba will be my first two guys locked in my lines.
Brooklyn
Jeff Green – ($3,900)
It is tough to choose from the big three and they spread the ball out well for their high prices. I will look toward the cheaper Nets like Green who offers me a reasonable floor at a cheap price. In the last ten games to close the season Green’s lowest fantasy output was 15.5. His usage in the team’s final five games is encouraging as he averages above a 21% rate in those five. I will look at Green and some Blake Griffin from this game.
Portland vs Denver
Portland
Damian Lillard – ($9,400)
It’s Dame time now that we are in the playoffs. In eight of his last ten games, the Blazer star has scored 49 or more fantasy points. His lowest output in those ten games was 42.75 in the regular-season finale. His average usage of 30% on the year is 5% above anyone else on his squad. The ball will be in Lillard or McCollum’s hand’s majority of the contest. It seems to me that McCollum is priced right but Lillard is a little cheap. Regardless, I am only playing Lillard or may take a GPP shot at Nurkic.
Denver
Michael Porter Jr. – ($8,200)
When you take Barton and Murray off the court you will see Porter with a 4.9% increase. That puts his total usage at 27% which is second on the team behind Joker. To go with that usage, we have Porter recording 1.13 fantasy points per minute on average without Murray and Barton. Today is not your average matchup though as Denver is facing the team that ranked second-worst in team defense to end the season. Someone must shoot and score other than Jokic, and Porter will need to step up.
Monte Morris – ($3,300)
Morris returned for three games before the end of the year and played 18 minutes in two. His lowest fantasy total was 16 points in those games with no lower than a 17% usage rate. These numbers are lower than they should be due to slowly working back from his month-long absence. When you take all the Nuggets that are out off the floor Morris sees the largest usage increase of 5.2%. Also, worth mentioning that during that team he averages .92 fantasy points per minute a superb number for a player at this salary.
Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/22
That is it for NBA GPP Picks 5/22 as we wrap up our first real playoff slate. It is a busy day in sports with MLB, NBA Playoffs, and a UFC fight card all today. With it being a busy day come hang out with the WinDaily family as we break down all the action for each sport. Check out all the projections for each sport and we will help you see green!
Happy Friday! Mike North and Jon Jansen bring you into the weekend as Mike talks about his bad beat from last night, Jon asking if he can void a bet from yesterday’s show and then make their picks for the day on the 5.21 Be(T) Like Mike Show!
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It’s the start of the PGA Championship! Mike North and Jon Jansen talk about the rise of golf betting, another no hitter in MLB and give out their picks for the day on the 5.20 Be(T) Like Mike Show!
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The Fantasy Isle takes it to the hardcourt this time around as Nabaté Isles talks with NBA Legend Tim Hardaway Sr. The two discuss the NBA Playoffs, his son Tim Hardaway Jr. in the playoffs with the Dallas Mavericks and much more on The Fantasy Isle!
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It’s the hottest topic in baseball at the moment. Mike North and Jon Jansen discuss Yermin Mercedes hitting a home run on a 3-0 count against the Twins, hitting being bad in MLB and their picks for the day on the 5.19 Be(T) Like Mike Show.
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Jon Jansen – @jjansen34
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Mike North decides to flex on today’s show and we approve. North and Jon Jansen discuss Jon Lester and Kyle Schwarber’s return to Chicago and make their picks for the day on the 5.18 Be(T) Like Mike Show!
Mike North – @North2North
Jon Jansen – @jjansen34
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Before the NBA playoffs begin, we have two matchups in each conference that will see the 7-10 seeds battle it out in a tournament style affair to get the final two playoff positions in each respective conference. Introduced this year, the NBA play-in tournament will feature some of the game’s biggest stars: LeBron James and Steph Curry highlight the Western Conference matchups, while Russell Westbrook, Jayson Tatum, Domantas Sabonis, and LaMelo Ball will all attempt to carry their squads to a playoff position in the Eastern Conference.
Rather than attempting to explain the bracket, below is a picture illustrated to demonstrate how the inaugural play-in tournament will work:
NBA Play-In Tournament: Eastern Conference
(#7) Boston Celtics vs (#8) Washington Wizards
| Key Statistic | (#7) Boston Celtics | (#8) Washington Wizards |
| Record | 36-36 | 34-38 |
| Record ATS | 33-38-1 (46.5%) | 41-30-1 (57.8%) |
| H2H Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Offensive Rating | 113.1 (10th) | 110.7 (17th) |
| Defensive Rating | 111.8 (13th) | 112.3 (20th) |
| Pace | 102.0 (17th) | 108.1 (1st) |
Although this is the second game of the night, it is the one to watch in the Eastern Conference. Both the Celtics and Wizards have had roller coasters of seasons, but only the latter comes into the Play-In round playing good basketball. With the Wizards kicking off their NBA campaign with a 3-12 record, questions quickly began to arise in the media:
“When will Bradley Beal be traded?”
“Is Westbrook really going to work out in D.C.?”
“What will Scott Brooks’ future hold?”
Then, things quickly changed: Bradley Beal became one of the best scorers in the NBA, Russell Westbrook had his best season statistically since his MVP campaign in 2016-2017, and the Washington Wizards concluded the season as the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference, finishing on a 17-6 run behind the play of their all-star backcourt.
However, things were not alike for the Boston Celtics. After starting their season with a 7-3 record, Boston got hit with a COVID outbreak that led to the majority of their roster missing significant time; the Celtics were spiralling without the all-star tandem of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, quickly falling out of playoff contention. A four-game win streak to end February and another six-game winning streak in April propelled them to a playoff spot in the weaker of the two conferences, but the Celtics come into the Play-In round limping, to say the least – having lost 5 of their last 6 to end the season, they also have a plethora of injuries, including losing Jaylen Brown for the rest of the season.
I will have a lot invested in this game from both a DFS and sports betting perspective – and you will too – you just don’t know it yet: the ultimate decision on Tuesday’s NBA slate is whether you are playing Russell Westbrook or not. Ultimately, it all comes down to your lineup construction. Sitting as the highest priced player on both sites, Russell Westbrook ($13,000 FD / $12,400 DK) will drastically shift the NBA DFS slate; is the field likely to lock him in and take a deep dive for some value plays that may or may not exist? Remember, this is the NBA playoffs we’re talking about, not a regular slate in March with over 50 players listed as questionable or doubtful; teams will shorten their rotation, and those that are the difference makers, often priced as the most expensive on a given NBA slate, will have the ball a lot and be playing a ton of minutes. Of course, the second player of interest on the Washington side of this game is no slouch and is none other than Bradley Beal, who was one of the best scorers in the league this season and would have won the scoring title if not for an outstanding run to close out the season by the greatest shooter in NBA history, Steph Curry. Averaging 31.3 PPG this season, Beal averaged 40.7 PPG in three games against the Celtics this season, where he sported a 40.2% usage rate while logging 36.9 MPG alongside Russell Westbrook in all three contests, but the former is nursing a hamstring injury that is cause for concern considering how long it’s been lingering now. After opening the last game shooting 2-for-11 from the field, Beal poured in 20 points in the second half on 6-for-16 shooting. While Beal’s statistics against the Celtics are impressive in three meetings this season, the last time these two teams played was February 28th, so we cannot look too much into previous statistics, but they do tell a story, nonetheless, while the present certainly favors the underdog in this one.
As previously mentioned, the Celtics come limping into the Play-In round having lost five of their last six and ten of their last fifteen. While the absence of Jaylen Brown is certainly a major blow to their lineup, they still have savvy veterans in Evan Fournier and Kemba Walker to pick up the slack on offense, in addition to Marcus Smart. The fact that they traded away all their big men – with the exception of Tristan Thompson and an injured Robert Williams – bodes well for Washington’s smaller lineup. Expect both teams to shorten the bench early and for Washington to utilize a combination of Alex Len, Robin Lopez, and Daniel Gafford at the ‘5’, but do not be surprised when they roll out a combination of Bertans-Hachimura-Smith to join Westbrook and Beal since the smaller Celtics frontcourt allows them to do so, similarly how they did last game against Charlotte.
Let’s not sugar coat this one bit: Boston will only go as far as Jayson Tatum can take them. Sure, the trio of Walker/Fournier/Smart can step up and knock down some shots while also stifling teams on the defensive end – but that’s a lot of if’s, and’s, and but’s. Rather than trying to evaluate the unknown, I’ll shift my focus to the known and that is what I stated previously: Boston will only go as far as Tatum takes them. Leading the team in usage rate (30.8%), minutes per game (35.8) and points per game (26.4), Tatum will be a hot commodity on this NBA DFS slate, sitting at $10,000 on FanDuel and $9,800 on DraftKings.
Ultimately, our exposure to this game is crucial – whether you realize it or not. Considering there are only two games on this slate, you will obviously have exposure to both, but what I mean when I’m explaining how important this game is surrounds Russell Westbrook: are you playing him or fading him? Either way, you’re invested in this one; playing Westbrook means you have to take a deeper dive for value plays that may or may not exist, while also hoping he leads the slate in scoring. However, fading him means you are likely not rostering the highest scoring player on the slate – can you stomach that when there are only two games? Some will ask if the Wizards take advantage of an injury-riddled Celtics team and have their backcourt duo lead them to the #7 seed in the Eastern Conference and a first round duel with the Brooklyn Nets. Truthfully speaking, this game is not as easy as the public is making it out to be. The trio of Walker/Fournier/Smart can certainly stifle the Washington backcourt, but I’m riding with the hottest duo in the NBA this season – yes, I said what I said.
The Pick: (#8) Washington Wizards
(#9) Indiana Pacers vs (#10) Charlotte Hornets
| Key Statistic | Indiana Pacers (#9) | Charlotte Hornets (#10) |
| Record | 34-38 | 33-39 |
| Record ATS | 32-39-1 (45.1%) | 36-35-1 (50.7%) |
| H2H Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Offensive Rating | 111.9 (14th) | 110.1 (23rd) |
| Defensive Rating | 111.9 (14th) | 112.0 (16th) |
| Pace | 105.8 (2nd) | 101.7 (21st) |
The game that tips off the NBA Play-In round is far from electric on paper, but it will certainly feature a fast-paced game environment with some of the league’s most underappreciated stars. Since the NBA All-Star break, Indiana has been playing at one of the league’s fastest paces while also lacking in defensive efficiency thanks for the absence of their best defensive player, Myles Turner, from the lineup since April 18th. On the flipside, Charlotte has been battling their fair share of injuries this season and have rarely had the majority of their rotation together for a single game. They can use all the help they can get, having lost six of their last seven entering tonight, and a matchup versus an Indiana team that will already be missing Myles Turner, TJ Warren, and Jeremy Lamb is certainly a start.
Indiana has had quite the roller coaster of a season thus far; what started off with much promise got quickly derailed when last year’s star of the NBA bubble, TJ Warren, underwent foot surgery after only having played four games. Injuries to almost every player on the roster certainly did not help the Pacers along the way, but the acquisition of Caris LeVert has proven to be fruitful for the #9 seed in the Eastern Conference; LeVert played in 35 games for Indiana, sporting a 27.9% usage rate while chipping in 20.7 PPG in 32.9 MPG. Alongside Domantas Sabonis, who averaged 23/14.1/10.7 in May, LeVert can certainly shoulder the load on offensive should Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) miss this one, but do not overlook the presence of Oshae Brissett ($5,700 FD / $5,400 DK) and Justin Holiday ($5,000 FD / $4,500 DK) who have been trusted to play crucial minutes down the stretch for the Pacers. Both players have shown flashes of upside in DFS, and despite Sabonis being healthy and running both ends of the floor for Indiana, the Pacers present better value plays than any other team, at the time of writing, while also having elite options at every position in Malcolm Brogdon or TJ McConnell, Caris LeVert, and Domantas Sabonis.
Going from one of the slowest teams in the NBA to one that plays with flare on the offensive side of the ball with highlight reel passes and dunks that will get you to your feet, Charlotte has now entered the Play-In tournament as the 10 seed behind the play of its young core. Beginning with the most experienced player on the roster, Terry Rozier will continue to log heavy minutes for the Hornets in what should be an 8-man rotation for Coach James Borrego featuring the former Boston Celtic alongside LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Jalen McDaniels, PJ Washington, Devonte’ Graham, Cody Zeller, and Malik Monk. What the Hornets make up for in offensive flare, they lack on the defensive side of the ball; they simply do not overpower teams on the offensive end enough to justify their lackluster defense, which will be a cause for concern tonight against both Domantas Sabonis and Caris LeVert, let alone if Malcolm Brogdon returns to action.
We’re into the best time of the NBA season and every game is hard to handicap, but I’ll side with the most underrated player in the NBA and the Pacers; Domantas Sabonis will prove to be too much for the combination of PJ Washington and Cody Zeller, while Caris LeVert, Justin Holiday, and Oshae Brissett all provide solid help to their all-star teammate. There is a ton of value to be had on this Pacers side for tonight’s DFS slate, so make sure to check our proprietary projection model to see who our main targets are, in addition to some fliers.
The Pick: (#9) Indiana Pacers
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
NBA Play-In Tournament: Western Conference (Coming on 05/19)
(#7) Los Angeles Lakers vs (#8) Golden State Warriors
| Key Statistic | Los Angeles Lakers (#7) | Golden State Warriors (#8) |
| Record | 42-30 | 39-33 |
| Record ATS | 32-39-1 (45.1%) | 37-35 (51.4%) |
| H2H Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Offensive Rating | 109.8 (24th) | 110.5 (20th) |
| Defensive Rating | 106.8 (1st) | 109.4 (5th) |
| Pace | 102.6 (14th) | 105.3 (5th) |
(#9) Memphis Grizzlies vs (#10) San Antonio Spurs
| Key Statistic | Memphis Grizzlies (#9) | San Antonio Spurs (#10) |
| Record | 38-34 | 33-39 |
| Record ATS | 42-30 (58.3%) | 38-32-2 (54.3%) |
| H2H Record | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Offensive Rating | 111.7 (15th) | 110.5 (19th) |
| Defensive Rating | 110.5 (7th) | 112.0 (17th) |
| Pace | 104.1 (8th) | 102.9 (13th) |
It’s another week of the Be(T) Like Mike Show! Mike North and Jon Jansen discuss why finding a lost wallet is the best feeling ever, why the NHL playoffs are so good and their picks for the day on the 5.17 Be(T) Like Mike show.
Mike North – @North2North
Jon Jansen – @jjansen34
Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com
Tonight is the regular-season finale that brings us a ten-game slate for NBA GPP Picks 5/16. It will likely be full of injuries and players resting to end the year. If you just scroll the list of players there is a plethora already ruled out. That makes joining the WinDaily family in Discord Chat important for tonight’s slate. In there you will find us keeping you updated on our favorite plays and all injury news throughout the day. Today’s article will be slightly different I will select a few teams I am keeping an eye on pending injuries. With an injury-filled season finale and the potential for tons of rest before playoffs, I don’t want to waste too much time.
For today’s article, I will be selecting a few teams that interest me as stacks on DraftKings due to injuries and matchups. With this slate, we will have teams thin especially those playoffs bound and locked in.
Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/16
New Orleans Pelicans
Nickeil Alexander-Walker – ($6,800)
The Pelicans will be without three starters yet again as Ball, Ingram, and Zion will all sit again. When you take them off the floor NAW sees a team-high 27.6% usage rate and averages 1.1 fantasy points per minute. He is coming off a game where he played 40 minutes and recorded over 50 fantasy points. If the minutes are that high again, he should easily pay off this price.
Naji Marshall – ($5,100)
In two straight games, we have seen Marshall record above a 20% usage rate. That will continue with three Pelicans starters ruled out yet again. He has played over 30 minutes in three straight games and has recorded greater than 38 fantasy points in two of those three. His price Is elevated but the minutes and usage shouldn’t be lacking for Marshall.
Detroit Pistons
Killian Hayes – ($5,600)
Detroit is tanking and Hayes has been a primary beneficiary of that. In three straight games, the rookie has played 36 or more minutes. His lowest fantasy output was 21 points but he shot 1-8 from the field in that game. In the two games, prior Hayes scored 30 and 38 fantasy points. He has averaged above a 20% usage rate in his last four games. Minutes won’t be the question so firing up the rookie isn’t a bad idea.
Hamidou Diallo – ($4,700)
The former Thunder has averaged a 25% usage rate in the past three games he played. Detroit will be thin again to finish the year which should allow for plenty of usage. When we take all these Pistons off the floor although it is a small sample size Diallo is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute. The matchup isn’t the best but Miami will already be without Jimmy Butler.
Houston Rockets
Kelly Olynyk – ($8,500)
With all these Rocket players off the floor, Olynyk is averaging a 26% usage rate while accumulating nearly 1.5 fantasy points per minute. The Houston big man has posted over 40 fantasy points in six straight games. In half of those games, Olynyk has eclipsed 50 fantasy points. Houston needs someone to shoot the ball and Olynyk will be a big part of that with this short-handed squad.
Armoni Brooks – ($4,900)
Brooks has played over 30 minutes in five of six games. His lowest fantasy total of those games is 24.75 fantasy points. The highest he has scored in that same stretch is over 40 fantasy points. Houston’s rookie point guard will get a good long look in their season finale. That will allow Brooks to score more than 30 fantasy points and pay off his salary.
Sacramento Kings
Terence Davis – ($6,600)
When you take all these Kings off the court Davis is averaging a 25% usage rate and holding a 1.07 fantasy point per minute mark. Davis has averaged more than a 21% usage rate in seven straight games. He has scored under 35 fantasy points just once in his last five games. With all these Kings out again he should see plenty of shot attempts to surpass the 35 fantasy points threshold.
Louis King – ($3,300)
With all these injuries Louis King will see plenty of minutes. Justin James got hurt last game which resulted in King recording 34 minutes while recording 53 fantasy points. James is already ruled out so King should see all the minutes in this season finally. For a player priced at $3,300 he saw a 23% usage rate last game and had a quality performance. His minutes will be massive in the finale especially with all the injuries to this Kings squad.
As far as the studs go on this slate I think you can pick any of them because they all come with some risk tonight. My two personal favorites tonight are Damian Lillard $9,400 and Luka Doncic at $10,300. Both are high-usage players that lead their team but they both need a win to try to avoid the play-in tournament. There is plenty of value to go with these two as your studs for tonight’s slate.
Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/16
That will wrap it up for this year’s regular season. Our final slate is NBA GPP Picks 5/16 which brings a ten-game slate to us. It is not an easy one to dissect and you will need to pay attention up to lock for this slate. Next time you hear from me we will be in the midst of playoffs breaking down important matchups. I can’t wait for the playoffs to be here and we get some serious battles down the stretch. For now, though, enjoy your Sunday, and good luck with your lineups.
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