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Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/22



Today starts the seven-game series and we get our first set of game ones for NBA GPP Picks 5/22. Most of the sitting and late scratch shenanigans should be done now. We can’t rule out some Covid protocol stuff so still, be tuned into Discord Chat rooms for this slate. Three of these games are projected at a 227-228 total with only the DAL vs LAC coming in at 218. My builds will start under the 10K range and go for a more balanced build for this first night. I think you can get a ton of usage still well below 10K, I mean we see Kawhi at just 8K. Let’s lock into these playoffs and get into the picks!

For this first round, I will do it a little differently. I will go over each game giving my top plays while considering ownership slightly more for GPP’s due to the smaller slates. This article will be using DraftKings pricing.

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/22

Miami vs Milwaukee

Jimmy Butler – ($8,400)

Jimmy is one of those players at a bargain as he was priced at $9,500 toward the end of the year. In seven of his last eight games that he played full minutes, Butler scored 43 or more fantasy points. The Bucks have been the second fastest team in the league this season while Miami has been the second slowest. A massive increase in pace will allow the usage leader for the Heat to pay off this tag easily. The only other player I am looking at for Miami is Herro.

Jrue Holiday – ($7,700)

First off, the Heat have done well defending Giannis in their three prior matchups and that was without Butler. In those three matchup Holiday, however, has averaged 42.5 fantasy points. That total is reachable again with Miami giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to point guards on the year. In five of his last seven games to close the year Holiday scored 45 or more fantasy points. Given the matchup and playoff minutes, we should see Holiday have a great outing.

Donte DiVincenzo – ($5,100)
This isn’t the prettiest play but all signs point toward it being a safe one for me. In five of six games to end the year Donte saw a usage rate several points above his season average. In that stretch of games, DiVincenzo had gone seven straight games scoring at least 26 fantasy points. Now that playoffs are here, he may get a slight minute increase and play more than 30 minutes which would be a bonus.

Dallas vs LA Clippers

Jalen Brunson – ($4,100)

I’m not a huge fan of this game specifically from the Dallas side of the ball. In eight of Brunson’s past nine games, he scored at least 20 fantasy points. In five of those games, Brunson had a usage rate of 22% or greater. Some of those were without Porzingis but it is still a healthy number for a player at this price. This game is the lowest total, so be sure to remember this is for GPP only. I think Richardson could be an option too if you do not play one of the two Dallas stars.

Kawhi Leonard – ($8,000)

This is an easy lock button for me. His price is too cheap especially now that he should be seeing playoff minutes toward 36-38 minutes pending game script. Leonard has played Dallas twice this year averaging 46 fantasy points. I know this total is low but these Clipper prices seem even lower. In my eyes, you should play either Kawhi or PG13 in your lineup. Both would work as one-off pieces where they are your only piece of this game.

Boston vs Brooklyn

Kemba Walker – ($7,500)

Since Jaylen Brown got hurt Kemba is averaging above a 31% usage rate. In seven of those eight games, Walker has scored at least 39 fantasy points flashing a ceiling above 50. His minutes were in question the majority of the season. It is playoff time though and he played 40 minutes at the end of the year. The Nets play at the eleventh fastest pace and rank in the bottom ten of defensive rating this season. Kawhi and Kemba will be my first two guys locked in my lines.

Jeff Green – ($3,900)

It is tough to choose from the big three and they spread the ball out well for their high prices. I will look toward the cheaper Nets like Green who offers me a reasonable floor at a cheap price. In the last ten games to close the season Green’s lowest fantasy output was 15.5. His usage in the team’s final five games is encouraging as he averages above a 21% rate in those five. I will look at Green and some Blake Griffin from this game.

Portland vs Denver

Damian Lillard – ($9,400)

It’s Dame time now that we are in the playoffs. In eight of his last ten games, the Blazer star has scored 49 or more fantasy points. His lowest output in those ten games was 42.75 in the regular-season finale. His average usage of 30% on the year is 5% above anyone else on his squad. The ball will be in Lillard or McCollum’s hand’s majority of the contest. It seems to me that McCollum is priced right but Lillard is a little cheap. Regardless, I am only playing Lillard or may take a GPP shot at Nurkic.

Michael Porter Jr. – ($8,200)

When you take Barton and Murray off the court you will see Porter with a 4.9% increase. That puts his total usage at 27% which is second on the team behind Joker. To go with that usage, we have Porter recording 1.13 fantasy points per minute on average without Murray and Barton. Today is not your average matchup though as Denver is facing the team that ranked second-worst in team defense to end the season. Someone must shoot and score other than Jokic, and Porter will need to step up.

Monte Morris – ($3,300)
Morris returned for three games before the end of the year and played 18 minutes in two. His lowest fantasy total was 16 points in those games with no lower than a 17% usage rate. These numbers are lower than they should be due to slowly working back from his month-long absence. When you take all the Nuggets that are out off the floor Morris sees the largest usage increase of 5.2%. Also, worth mentioning that during that team he averages .92 fantasy points per minute a superb number for a player at this salary.

Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 5/22

That is it for NBA GPP Picks 5/22 as we wrap up our first real playoff slate. It is a busy day in sports with MLB, NBA Playoffs, and a UFC fight card all today. With it being a busy day come hang out with the WinDaily family as we break down all the action for each sport. Check out all the projections for each sport and we will help you see green!

Mitchell Thoennes Is a 23-year-old that has been playing daily fantasy sports since the day he turned 18 in 2015 and was still in highschool. Two months later got his first large field tournament win in NBA as he was still just a high schooler. Since then he took down the 100K on an NBA slate using DraftKings as a 21-year-old. Currently ranks in the top four percent of DFS players according to RotoGrinders ranking numbers. Mostly a GPP/tournament player that specializes in NBA, MLB, PGA, and NFL in that order, NBA being my strongest sport. He works with numbers every day and including that with his love for sports explains why he has been a DFS player since the day he was able. His draftkings username is bombcarlo15 and you can find him on twitter if needed @MitchellThoenn1.

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