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NBA dfs

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/25

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

After a day off yesterday, the NBA is back in action tonight. With nearly every team taking the court, this slate has a multitude of possibilities. Injuries will be key to monitor, especially with the expected returns of multiple players whom sat out on Wednesday to rest. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

We saw many key players in multiple rotations sit out on Wednesday. As a result, they have now had 48 hours to recuperate with yesterday’s day off. However, injuries are still expected to roll in as we get closer to lock. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

Brooklyn Nets (-3.5)

If you are living in the mid range of the pricing grid tonight, look no further than Ben Simmons for exposure to one of the best game environments on the slate. Over the last four games, Simmons has a modest 17.4% usage rate. However, he has been efficient on both sides of the ball. Simmons is not shooting the ball a ton, but he is averaging 15.5/7.5/7.3 on 80% shooting in his last four appearances. Moreover, Simmons is being tasked with elevating Brooklyn’s perimeter defense, leading to 1.75 steals per game and 1.5 blocks per game. While his price has quickly increased over the last week, it still is not high enough for someone that has triple-double potential in a matchup against an Indiana defense that ranks 18th in the NBA.

Indiana Pacers (+3.5)

With Ben Simmons playing excellent defense on the perimeter, I’ll be looking elsewhere than Tyrese Haliburton. He is still in a good spot while running an offense that ranks 8th in the NBA, but his ceiling in this one is concerning. Thus, with Brooklyn’s struggles versus combo guards, I’ll be looking to Benedict Mathurin off the bench. Not only is the Canadian a favorite for Rookie of the Year, but he is also a strong candidate for Sixth Man of the Year. Surprisingly, it is Mathurin, not Haliburton, who leads the Pacers in usage rate at 26.8%. Moreover, Mathurin has posted a 19.4/3.9/1.8 scoring line on 44.4% shooting, including 43.3% from deep.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5)

New Orleans Pelicans (+1.5)

One of the key injuries already disclosed on this NBA is CJ McCollum, who has been ruled out after being placed in health and safety protocols. Moreover, there is a possibility that others join him, so be sure to keep an eye on this injury report leading up to lock. In his absence, Brandon Ingram will be the primary ball handler. While the field will likely chase Zion Williamson’s performance from last game, I do not like the matchup against Jaren Jackson Jr. Rather, it is Ingram who gets the favorable spot against a Memphis defense that ranks 20th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and 23rd against primary ball handlers.

Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5)

Suddenly, the Grizzlies are one of the most shorthanded teams in the NBA. Not only does Desmond Bane remain out for this game, but Santi Aldama is doubtful and John Konchar is questionable. This will be a key injury report to monitor. Nonetheless, while Ja Morant makes for an elite target in a favorable game environment, I’ll take a point guard listed below over him. Thus, I’ll be turning to Jaren Jackson Jr. once again. Through three appearances this season, JJJ carries a 30.2% usage rate while averaging 18/7 on 40.9% shooting. Moreover, he is averaging over one steal per game and a whopping 4.33 blocks. With the Pelicans ranked 19th in the league in points allowed in the paint per game, JJJ will get more looks on offense in a thin rotation.

Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

Utah Jazz (+6.5)

Make no mistake about it, Lauri Markkanen is one of the best stories in the early stages of the NBA season. However, there is another player stealing the spotlight recently. With 20 or more points in three of his last four games, Malik Beasley has been crucial for the Jazz. In the absence of Mike Conley, no one has stepped up as much as Beasley. In his last four games, Beasley has posted a 22.8/5.8/2 scoring line on 48.4% shooting, including 44.2% from deep. Moreover, he has an outstanding 25.7% usage rate, despite coming off the bench. With the Warriors ranked 23rd against off-ball spot-up shooters, Beasley will look to continue his impressive run in a favorable matchup.

Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

His price is high but Steph Curry has one of the highest ceilings on this NBA slate. Looking to turn their season around, the Warriors are now 3-1 in their last four games. During that stretch, Curry has a modest 28.6% usage rate. However, it has not stopped him from averaging 26.3/6/11.3 on 49.2% shooting, including 43.2% from deep. With the Jazz ranked 21st in defensive rating, most notable struggling on the perimeter, Curry is an elite option.

Honorable Mentions:

Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs (+4.5)
Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets (+6.5)
Sacramento Kings @ Boston Celtics (-7.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/23

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are many elite game environments and plenty of stars on this NBA slate. Unfortunately, some have already been ruled out and will be missing in action. Injuries have derailed slates over the last few weeks, and tonight is no different. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

A single injury can alter an NBA slate. As has been the theme of the past few weeks, there hasn’t just been one, but many major injuries to monitor. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets (-4.5)

Philadelphia 76ers (+4.5)

I wrote up Shake Milton for yesterday’s NBA and the same applies on the second half of a back-to-back: “Although he figures to be one of, if not the most rostered player on the slate, it will be hard to avoid Shake Milton tonight. Over his last two games, Milton has a 25.5% usage rate. Moreover, he has posted a 21/4.5/4 scoring line on 59.3% shooting, including 44.4% from deep.” With Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey still out for the 76ers, Milton is as close to a free square as it gets.

Charlotte Hornets (-4.5)

In the absence of LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier will carry this offense. However, with stronger intrigue for other guards on the NBA slate, I cannot find a spot for him in my NBA lineups. Thus, I’ll be looking at Kelly Oubre Jr. and PJ Washington. Now, you don’t have to force exposure to this offense. Rather, the two make for low rostered plays to get different. In their last two games since Ball reaggravated his injury, it is Oubre Jr., not Rozier, who leads the team in usage rate at 27.8%. Moreover, Oubre Jr. has posted a remarkable 28.5 points per game on 53.7% shooting in his last two appearances. Not only has Oubre Jr. been outperforming Rozier, but it is PJ Washington, not Rozier, who is second on the team in scoring in their last two. With the 76ers being forced to roll out a small lineup in the absence of Embiid, Washington will have ample opportunity in the paint.

Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Sacramento Kings (+6.5)

If you are looking for a back and forth between two elite offenses, this is the game for you. Turning heads in November, the Kings have been one of, if not the best team in the NBA lately. Not only do they currently have the #1 ranked offense, but they have a formidable duo in De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis complemented with elite shooting. If you have been following over the past few years, you already know how I feel about both Fox and Sabonis. Rather than writing them both up once again, I’ll emphasize what Kevin Huerter brings to this offense. Sporting an 18.6% usage rate on the season, Huerter has posted a 16.6/2.9/3.5 scoring line on 50% shooting. Moreover, he has the seventh best three-point shooting percentage in the NBA at 49.5%. A tough matchup looms on the perimeter, but this offense is scorching.

Atlanta Hawks (-6.5)

Despite the Hawks cooling off after starting their season with a 4-1 record, Trae Young has been heating up. For the eighth consecutive contest, Young posted 20 or more points versus the Cavaliers. During that span, Young has a team-leading 33.3% usage rate and has posted a 25.9/3/9.6 scoring line on 42.1% shooting. While the Kings have greatly improved their team defense, they can still be beaten by primary ball handlers, allowing over 26 points and 8 assists per 36 minutes. Enter Young, who is one of the best to do it in today’s NBA.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

Los Angeles Clippers (+6.5)

Lengthly injuries is once again costing the Clippers. It only gets worse, as both Kawhi Leonard (ankle) and Paul George (hamstring) are set to miss tonight’s game. As a result, this is going to be one of the most interesting rotations on the NBA slate. There are different ways to get exposure here, depending on how the rest of your lineup shakes out. Reggie Jackson and Ivica Zubac figure to carry the bulk of the offensive looks in the starting lineup. The two are both averaging approximately 33 minutes per game over their last three. Moreover, Jackson has posted a 23.3/3/3.7 scoring line on 58.1% shooting during that span, while Zubac has the better matchup of the two with Golden State ranked 26th versus centers. If you want scoring power off the bench, both John Wall and Norman Powell are elite options on the slate as well.

Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

Amidst early season troubles, the Warriors seem to have their groove on offense. With the majority of their starters having rested last game, Golden State figures to be back at full strength tonight. Thus, there is a lot of firepower here between two Western Conference title contenders. In a matchup against the Clippers, the Splash Brothers will once again be at the focal point of the offense. Klay Thompson is coming off a season-high 41 points, making 10 of 13 three-pointers against the Rockets. Moreover, Steph Curry made seven three-pointers of his own, posting a 33/6/15 scoring line on 55% shooting. Sporting a 31.2% usage rate on the season, Curry has been posting better numbers than his unanimous MVP season, making him one of the best plays on the NBA slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Portland Trail Blazers @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-8.5)
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors (-1.5)
New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/22

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Only eight teams take the court tonight but there is plenty of intrigue. Not only have multiple stars been ruled out, but NBA teams are dealing with a plethora of injuries. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

There has already been plenty to notice on injury reports. Moreover, key players may be unavailable in addition to those already ruled out. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

Brooklyn Nets

With how shorthanded the 76ers are tonight, I will not be playing Kevin Durant nor Kyrie Irving. Rather, it is the return of Ben Simmons to Philadelphia that peaks my interest. Now, this can go one of two ways. Either he makes a statement or flops. At the time of writing, I’m leaning toward the former. In his last two games, Simmons has a modest usage rate of 18.3% but has been efficient at the center position. Averaging 18.5/10.5/6 on 89.5% shooting, his field goal attempts have been low, but are right near the basket. In the absence of Joel Embiid, it is Ben Simmons that has the most to prove tonight in a phenomenal individual matchup.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers rotation will be the most popular on the NBA slate. Not only does James Harden remain out with a foot injury, but Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey have also been ruled out. Thus, the offense will belong to Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, and Shake Milton. Moreover, PJ Tucker and Georges Niang are looking at heavy minutes in the frontcourt. Although he figures to be one of, if not the most rostered player on the slate, it will be hard to avoid Shake Milton tonight. Over his last two games, Milton has a 25.5% usage rate. Moreover, he has posted a 21/4.5/4 scoring line on 59.3% shooting, including 44.4% from deep.

Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies

Sacramento Kings

November has been awfully kind to the Sacramento Kings. Not only are they currently 9-6 and holding down the 5th seed in the Western Conference, but they have been one of the best teams in the NBA lately. This month, the Kings are first in offensive rating and points per game, second in net rating and assists per game, and have the third best record in the league. Recently, De’Aaron Fox has been named Player of the Week and the Kings are now riding a six-game winning streak. Over that span, Fox has a team-leading 26.9% usage rate, resulting in a 24/4/8.7 scoring line on 57.7% shooting. With the Grizzlies ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and struggling to contain primary ball handlers, Fox has a legitimate shot at leading the slate in scoring.

Memphis Grizzlies

With Ja Morant listed as doubtful tonight, both he and Desmond Bane figure to be on the sidelines. Thus, the offense will fall to Tyus Jones, John Konchar, Dillon Brooks, and Jaren Jackson Jr. However, due to recency bias in their latest game, the latter figures to be overlooked. In a mere two appearances this season after returning from a severe foot injury, Jackson Jr. has been efficient. Both of his games played came with Desmond Bane out of the lineup, but Ja Morant was playing. The reason I mention this is because, with Morant leading the team in usage rate in those games, Jackson Jr. is in line to do so tonight. In only 25 minutes per game, JJJ has posted a 16/9 scoring line on 33.33% shooting. Against a Sacramento defense that ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the Grizzlies are in a great spot tonight.

Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets

Detroit Pistons

Another team dealing with multiple injuries is the rebuilding Pistons. Cade Cunningham remains out with a leg injury, while both Isaiah Stewart (toe) and Saddiq Bey (ankle) have also been ruled out for tonight. The duo of Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic will lead the offense in the starting lineup, while Jalen Duren and Alec Burks will lead the bench unit. The former duo figures to be much more popular, but do not overlook the latter. In back-to-back games, both Duren and Burks have eclipsed 20 minutes. As a result, the have combined for 31.5 points per game. Moreover, despite not starting, Burks leads the team in usage rate over the last two games, while Duren leads the team in rebounds. On a small NBA slate, this game screams value.

Denver Nuggets

If you have played any NBA slate as of late, you already know the drill. The Nuggets have listed both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray as doubtful tonight, meaning the team is not expecting either star to make a return to the lineup. Additionally, Jeff Green has been ruled out, while Aaron Gordon is at jeopardy of missing a fourth consecutive game. Thus, the Nuggets rotation will be on interest, should any combination of these players miss tonight’s game. No need to overthink this one: Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DeAndre Jordan, and Michael Porter Jr. should be in your player pool.

Honorable Mention:

Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/21

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

This last week in the NBA resembles April basketball. Rotations have been depleted because of health and safety protocols, injuries, and load management. Tonight, multiple key players have already been ruled out, while others will surely join them by lock. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Lately, injury reports are lengthly. Tonight, there are many stars missing in action with others questionable to play. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

New York Knicks @ OKC Thunder (-3)

New York Knicks (+3)

Things are not looking good for the Knicks. Despite being 8-9, this team looks to be in shambles on both sides of the ball. Now, on the second half of a back-to-back, they’re 3-point underdogs to the rebuilding Thunder. Despite their lack of success, this team has a ton of fantasy appeal tonight. No one is priced out of range, and the rotation’s inconsistent minutes makes for a high-risk, high-reward scenario. The duo of Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle figure to be relied upon heavily tonight. The Thunder currently rank 27th in the NBA versus big men, while Brunson gets a friendly matchup versus a backcourt that struggles to guard primary ball handlers. Moreover, with the inconsistent play of Isaiah Hartenstein and the return from injury of Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks will go smaller with Randle at the ‘5’, resulting in more minutes of Immanuel Quickley alongside Brunson.

OKC Thunder (-3)

Riddled with injuries, the Thunder are a rotation of interest on tonight’s NBA slate. With Tre Mann, Darius Bazley, and Aleksej Pokusevski all out, there is plenty to like in an elite game environment. First, the duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are both firmly in play. Averaging 1.44 and 1.1 points per minute, respectively, the young backcourt offer immense upside against a Knicks defense that ranks 24th in the NBA. However, I also want to highlight Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. In the absences of both Bazley and Pokusevski, the young center will see the bulk of the minutes at the ‘5’. Moreover, he is averaging 16.54/8.27/1.44 per 36 minutes. If you cannot get exposure in the form of SGA or Giddey, there are multiple value options you should be considering.

Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-7)

Miami Heat (+7)

This is an injury report worth monitoring. In the last week, the Heat have been decimated with absences, requiring players on two-way contracts to meet the minimum eight players per game. Thus, Miami’s rotation will be a focal point until they get back to full health. Jimmy Butler remains out, while Gabe Vincent and Tyler Herro both missed last night’s game. Should this still be the case, a player to consider is Duncan Robinson. While both Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo will have higher usage rates and more looks on offense, their respective matchups are far from ideal. Minnesota currently ranks 23rd in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed and 29th in three-pointers made per game. With Robinson being one of the best pure shooters in the league, his ceiling is worth a look considering he is close to minimum salary.

Minnesota Timberwolves (-7)

Exposure to this offense will be tricky, but it’s a good spot. With Miami playing on a short rotation, Minnesota will be forced to tighten up their own. Thus, the trio of Towns, Gobert, and Edwards are enticing. Gobert has massive point/dollar upside, but his limited touches on offense keeps his production intact. Karl-Anthony Towns can put up a 30-point double-double at any given time, but his floor is simply too low. Consequently, Anthony Edwards is the priority. Sporting a team-leading 31.3% usage rate over his last two games, Edwards has posted a 30/6.5/5.5 scoring line on 46.3% shooting. Additionally, he has shot 39.1% from deep while taking 23 three-point attempts in the last two games. With Miami ranked 21st in the NBA in three-point percentage allowed and 28th in three-pointers made per game, Edwards has the potential to break the slate.

Honorable Mentions:

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers (-2.5)
Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers (-6.5)
Portland Trail Blazers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-8.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/18

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are plenty of intriguing storylines for tonight’s NBA slate. A multitude of players have already been ruled out, while others seem to be on the wrong side of their questionable tags. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Multiple players are currently listed on their team’s respective injury report. With eleven games on the schedule tonight, those lists will only grow. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Indiana Pacers @ Houston Rockets (+5)

Indiana Pacers (-5)

If I didn’t like the studs in the game below this one as much as I do, I’d be all over Tyrese Haliburton. In summary, this is a dream spot for the Pacers’ plethora of guards. The Rockets rank 28th in the NBA in defensive rating, 29th versus primary ball handlers, and 29th versus off-ball guards. This bodes well for the trio of Haliburton, Hield, and Mathurin. While it’s a good spot for all three, I want to also highlight Myles Turner. Sporting a 21.8% usage rate on the season, Turner has posted an 18.1/8.9/1.6 scoring line on 52.9% shooting. Moreover, Turner has posted four straight double-doubles. During that span, he has averaged 22.5/10.8/1.5 on 59.6% shooting through a 22.5% usage rate. Whether it comes in the form of the three guards or Turner, you need exposure to this Pacers offense in one of the best game environments on the slate.

Houston Rockets (+5)

This is a great game environment for the mid range of the pricing grid. With the Pacers ranked 25th in defensive rating, I’m going right to the Rockets’ backcourt duo in Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green. Now, the former is listed as questionable, so be sure to keep an eye on that leading up to lock. However, both are firmly in play, should they both suit up. Green leads the team in usage rate at 27.1%, while Porter Jr. slots in second with a 26.4% rate of his own. They have combined for over 40 points per game this season while taking over 33 shots per night. Indiana currently ranks 22nd in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, while ranking in 27th versus off-ball guards. Moreover, the Pacers rank 29th in opposing three-point percentage allowed and 25th in three-pointers made per game, allowing 13.4 per game.

OKC Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies (-6)

OKC Thunder (+6)

Tied for third in league scoring, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best players in the league right now. Averaging a career-high 32.3 points per game, SGA has scored 37 or more points in four of his last five games. Moreover, he has posted a 35/4.4/6.2 scoring line on 56% shooting while carrying a 34.7% usage rate. Facing a Memphis defense that sits 19th in defensive efficiency and 23rd versus primary ball handlers, SGA is one of the best plays on the NBA slate.

Memphis Grizzlies (-6)

If you are looking for a back and forth between two of the league’s best young talents, look no further. Ja Morant played excellent in a losing effort to the Pelicans the other night. Despite the team only being able to muster 102 points, Morant posted a 36/8/4 scoring line on 48.1% shooting. Moreover, he led the team with a whopping 40.7% usage rate and finished +5 on the night. With the Thunder ranked third in the NBA in pace, this game environment is right up the alley of Morant.

Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)

Denver Nuggets (+6.5)

This is far from an elite game environment. However, with Jamal Murray (health and safety protocols) joining Nikola Jokic (health and safety protocols) on the sidelines, the Nuggets will be the most popular rotation on the NBA slate. Michael Porter Jr. instantly becomes the primary shot taker, but his efficiency has been lackluster, shooting 30% or worse from the field in three of his last four games. Thus, the duo of Bruce Brown and Bones Hyland are more intriguing. The former has scored in double digits in three straight games, posting a 13.3/9/5 scoring line on 45.5% shooting. Moreover, Hyland reentered the lineup last game and finished second on the team in usage rate, only behind Murray. Hyland posted a 21/7/2 scoring line on 46.5% shooting, including five three-pointers made on ten attempts. Considering the Mavericks are last in the league in pace and fifth in defensive rating, do not go overboard on the Nuggets.

Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)

Despite the absences of key members to the Nuggets rotation, Vegas still has this game staying close. Thus, Luka Doncic is firmly in play. Leading the NBA with a 38.3% usage rate, Doncic has been on a record-breaking pace to begin the season. Doncic has posted a remarkable 34.4/8.8/7.8 scoring line on 49.7% shooting. Moreover, he has 30 or more points in 11 of 13 appearances this year. I’ll never encourage the prediction of blowouts, and while this may seem like one on paper, the Mavericks have losses against the Wizards, Magic, and Thunder this year, while having a narrow margin of victory of 8.38 points in eight wins.

Honorable Mentions:

Boston Celtics @ New Orleans Pelicans (+3)
New York Knicks @ Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/17

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Tonight’s NBA slate is one of the oddest the season has to offer. Not only are there only six teams in action, but all three games tipoff at 10pm EST. There are elite studs at the top of the pricing grid, while two of three games stick out above the other. It’s a Thirsty Thursday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

With only three games on the schedule tonight, a single injury can alter the outlook of the slate. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings (-6.5)

San Antonio Spurs (+6.5)

If you are looking to build a more balanced lineup for tonight’s NBA slate, there are two Spurs to monitor. With the Kings ranked 28th in the NBA to wings, the duo of Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson are once again at the forefront. While I have been fond of Vassell’s game since his draft year, his point/dollar upside is limited given his reliance on scoring. Therefore, I prefer to target Keldon Johnson in this game. Leading the team with a 27.7% usage rate, Johnson is having a breakout campaign. Amidst the departure of Dejounte Murray in the offseason, Johnson has taken his offensive game to new heights. Not only is Johnson averaging a career high in points, but his efficiency has greatly improved. His 16.9 field goal attempts per game is also a career high, while still shooting 45.1% from the field. Moreover, Johnson is averaging nearly nine three-point attempts per game while shooting 42.3% from deep.

Sacramento Kings (-6.5)

Since I’ll be turning to the top of the pricing grid in the next game, I’ll recommend the Kings’ role players in this spot. The key to this will be the availability of Keegan Murray. The rookie left last game with a back injury and did not return. Should he be forced to miss tonight’s game, there are a trio of options to us. Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Terence Davis will all see increased time should Murray sit out. While the field will likely chase Davis’ 31-point outburst from last game, this is a prime spot for Kevin Huerter. Huerter has now made four or more three-pointers in his last three games, shooting 52.6% from deep and is in a great matchup. The Spurs currently rank last in the NBA versus off-ball spot-up shooters. Moreover, the Spurs rank 29th in three-point percentage allowed and 22nd in three-pointers made per game.

Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

Brooklyn Nets (+2.5)

After an embarrassing 32-point loss to the Kings on Tuesday, the Nets’ week has been filled with drama. Not only did the Nets get humiliated on the road, but Kevin Durant later questioned the talent of the team’s roster in a press conference. Considering Durant has never held anything back in the media before, this shouldn’t be all that surprising. However, he needs to come out and dominate this game more so than ever now. Despite the hefty price tag, there is no better bet than Durant leading the NBA slate in scoring. Whether he is optimal remains to be seen, but having the slate’s leading scorer in your lineups is never a bad thing. Simply put, there is no one on the Trail Blazers that can guard Durant.

Portland Trail Blazers (-2.5)

If you are looking for a back and forth in the best game on the NBA slate, Damian Lillard is an elite target. However, rostering both he and Durant severely limits your options with the remaining spots in your lineup. Thus, I want to highlight the duo of Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons. Specifically, the former has been on a tear lately. Sporting a 27.4% usage rate during their last three games, Grant has posted a 31/7.3/2.3 scoring line on 56.1% shooting. Moreover, he has scored 27 or more points in all three games. Likewise, Simons has been producing well also. Simons is no slouch either, sporting a 26.5% usage rate and carrying a 23.3/4.3/3.3 scoring line on 38.9% shooting during the same span. With Simons having attempted a whopping 34 three-point attempts in his last three games, including ten or more in all three appearances, he has the ability to drastically alter this slate. The Nets currently rank 28th in the league in three-point percentage allowed and allow 13.5 three-pointers made per contest, good for 27th in the NBA.

Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Clippers (-9)

Detroit Pistons (+9)

Of the three games on tonight’s NBA schedule, this is far and away my least favorite. However, with Cade Cunningham set to miss a fourth consecutive game, there will be intrigue here. In the absence of Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic have led the the team in usage at 28.6% and 27%, respectively. While Bogdanovic has led the team in scoring during that stretch, it is Ivey who has a better matchup tonight. With the Clippers ranked 25th in the league versus primary ball handlers, this has been a matchup we’ve picked on for the longest time. Ivey has posted a 19/3.7/5 scoring line on 42.9% shooting in his last three without Cunningham, making him the preferred target in this one.

Los Angeles Clippers (-9)

As mentioned above, this is my least favorite game of the three on tonight’s NBA slate. Thus, I have little intrigue in the Clippers offense. However, what can shake things up is the availability of Paul George. The Clippers star is currently questionable with a hand injury. Considering this is the team’s third game in four days, there is a serious chance he sits out tonight. Should that be the case, John Wall is an elite target in the mid range. Currently second on the team in usage rate at 28.2%, Wall has been efficient with his time on the court. It has been five straight games where Wall has scored in double digits, posting a 13.6/3.4/5.6 scoring line on 42.6% shooting. Additionally, the Pistons currently rank last in the NBA against primary handlers.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/16

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Back to a set of full of games tonight in the NBA and there has already been plenty of news. Key players in some of the best game environments have already been ruled out, with surely more to come as we approach lock. It’s a Wet Wednesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

As mentioned above, many key players have already been ruled out. Certainly, there will be a flurry of updates to each injury report throughout the day. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks (+2)

Boston Celtics (-2)

Make no mistake about it, Jayson Tatum has been playing at an MVP level this season. Since the mid range of the pricing grid tonight will be a priority for most, many stars in elite game environments will be overlooked at the top of the pricing grid. Tatum currently sits 3rd in the NBA in scoring with 31.9 points per game. Moreover, the former Duke Blue Devil has scored 20 or more points in every game this season. Tatum comes into tonight’s matchup sporting a 31.9% usage rate, resulting in a 31.9/7.4/3.9 scoring line on 49.1% shooting. Should Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) miss a fourth consecutive game, the Celtics are down to what is essentially an 8-man rotation in one of the best game environments on the slate.

Atlanta Hawks (+2)

The Celtics are widely recognized for their talent on the defensive side of the ball. However, the statistics tell another story. Boston currently sits 21st in the NBA in defensive rating and have been struggling to keep teams at bay, allowing 113.5 points per game over their last four. Dejounte Murray is an intriguing target at the top of the pricing grid given the Celtics’ lack of defense versus secondary ball handlers. Moreover, the duo of Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu hold an advantage on the inside over Al Horford. I won’t recommend forcing exposure to this offense, but this is a sneaky game for tournaments that can turn into an offensive spotlight.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

Cleveland Cavaliers (+4.5)

The Cavaliers will get reinforcements with Donovan Mitchell (ankle) back in the lineup, but will also be without Jarrett Allen (ankle) against the Bucks. Thus, both Evan Mobley and Kevin Love will see a sizeable bump in playing time. However, the backcourt duo of Garland and Mitchell will continue to carry the 3rd best offense in the NBA. In a matchup against the Bucks, who are the league’s best defensive team, it won’t be easy to put up a ton of points against the likes of Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, Mitchell has now scored 20 or more points in seven straight games, posting a 33.4/4.6/5.4 scoring line on 55.3% shooting. I encourage exposure to this offense either way, whether it comes in the form of Mitchell/Garland or Mobley/Love, but prefer the former, since the latter will be more popular.

Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

Since the mid range of the pricing grid offers much intrigue, Giannis Antetokounmpo will not be overly popular. Despite the lofty price tag, Giannis is one of a handful of players that can alter an NBA slate at any time. Sophomore Evan Mobley is already one of the league’s best defenders, but slowing Giannis down tonight will be a challenge like no other. Sporting a 38.6% usage rate on the season, Giannis returned to the lineup last game with a 27/8/4 scoring line in only 31 minutes and now carries a 31.3/11.8/5.2 scoring line on 52.6% shooting into tonight’s matchup.

New York Knicks @ Denver Nuggets (-9)

New York Knicks (+9)

With the Knicks on the second half of a back-to-back, this is one of many injury reports to monitor. Moreover, New York plays five games over a span of seven days, with this being their second of five. Denver ranks 23rd in defensive rating. Thus, I have interest in rostering Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, or one of Isaiah Hartenstein or Obi Toppin, depending on what our NBA projections display. The trio find themselves in tremendous matchups against Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and DeAndre Jordan, respectively. Look for updates in Discord to see where we land exactly, but the Knicks are going to be of interest.

Denver Nuggets (-9)

Welcome to the team of choice on this NBA slate. The field will surely flock to the Nuggets offense with Nikola Jokic (health and safety protocols) ruled out, and rightfully so. In addition, Bones Hyland ((health and safety protocols) will miss a third consecutive game, while Aaron Gordon is questionable with an illness as well. The quartet of Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are set to see heavy minutes and offensive looks.

Of the four, Jamal Murray looks to be in for a big night. Sporting a 26.7% usage rate on the season, Murray sees a drastic increase to 38.6% with Jokic off the floor this year in a small sample. Moreover, his fantasy points per minute (FPPG) increases from 1.01 to 1.13 while seeing a notable uptick in scoring and field goal attempts. With the Knicks ranked 26th in the NBA to primary ball handlers, Murray is the preferred target, but the quartet listed above are all in play.

Honorable Mentions:

Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets (-2.5)
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns (-1.5)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/15

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

Despite there being only fives games on the NBA schedule, there is no shortage of fire power. Marquee matchups between some of the league’s best dominate the headlines. It’s a Taco Tuesday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

As we saw last night, injuries to key players alter your lineups drastically. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5)

Memphis Grizzlies (+4.5)

With Desmond Bane (toe) doubtful to play tonight, Ja Morant will get as many offensive looks as he can handle. Due to an ankle injury, Morant missed Sunday’s game versus the Wizards, but the face of the franchise is set to make his return tonight. Leading the team with a 36% usage rate, Morant has posted a remarkable 28.8/6/7 scoring line on 48% shooting, including 41% from deep. Facing a Pelicans team that struggles versus primary ball handlers, Morant offers immense upside at the top of the pricing grid on this NBA slate.

New Orleans Pelicans (-4.5)

Since the acquisition of CJ McCollum last season, the Pelicans’ offense is as potent as ever. Ranking 9th in the NBA in offensive rating, there is a flurry of options here on any given night. However, this makes it tough to get exposure to key contributors in fantasy. I won’t force any exposure here, but as one of the elite game environments on a small slate, it is a favorable scenario. Thus, Brandon Ingram will certainly be in my player pool. Over his last five games, Ingram ranks second on the team in usage with a 26.3% rate, only behind Zion at 26.4%. Over the same span, Ingram has averaged over 20 points per game while shooting an efficient 44.6% from the field. With Bane doubtful to play tonight, Ingram will have a great matchup as the primary off ball options for the Pelicans.

New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz (-4)

New York Knicks (+4)

Having seen the Knicks allowed a whopping 145 points to the Thunder on the weekend, this game will likely draw attention on a small NBA slate. With Tom Thibodeau being as inconsistent as ever with his rotations, no player’s minutes are safe, other than Julius Randle. Unfortunately, he has a safe floor in fantasy, but carries a lower ceiling than the ideal for a player of his magnitude. Thus, don’t force any exposure here. Should you want to take a shot on a risky player for tournaments, there are many options here, including Cam Reddish and Jalen Brunson.

Utah Jazz (-4)

One of the most surprising teams in the NBA this season is none other than the Utah Jazz. This group of players seem determined to beat the preseason odds, and they’re currently doing so with a 10-5 record in the Western Conference. While Lauri Markkanen seems to be reaching the potential he was deemed to have at the time of his draft, I want to highlight Malik Beasley and his production as of late. Logging 29 or more minutes in four of his last five appearances, Beasley has now scored in double digits in five straight. Sporting an 18.1% usage rate during that span, Beasley has posted a 15.2/4.4/1.4 scoring line on 49.2% shooting, including 46.5% from behind the arc on a whopping 8.6 attempts per game.

Brooklyn Nets @ Sacramento Kings (-2)

Brooklyn Nets (+2)

Kevin Durant joins Luka Doncic and Ja Morant as the best options on this NBA slate. However, while you already know what Durant is capable of, there are other intriguing options on this offense. Listed as probable after missing Sunday’s game, Seth Curry will likely make his return to the lineup tonight. In his two games prior to Sunday, Curry posted a 22.5/3/2.5 scoring line on 57.1% shooting through a 26.9% usage rate. The Kings rank 26th in the NBA in defensive rating and struggle versus combo guards, making Curry an elite option in one of the best game environments on the slate.

Sacramento Kings (-2)

If you are looking to build a balanced lineup on tonight’s NBA slate rather than with a stud or two at the top of the pricing grid, look no further than De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. The two have been on a tear since Sabonis was acquired in the Tyrese Haliburton deal last season. Over their last six games, Fox and Sabonis lead the team in usage rates at 29.4% and 25%, respectively. Moreover, the two have combined for 49.2 points per game, scoring 20 or more points each in four of five appearances. Brooklyn’s defense has improved over their last 5 games, but Nic Claxton still lacks the skillset to defend Domantas Sabonis on the inside, while De’Aaron Fox will dominate the Nets’ backcourt.

Honorable Mentions:

Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks (-6.5)
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers (-7)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/14

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

There are plenty of stars in tonight’s NBA action and just as much injury news to follow. Some key players have already been ruled out, while others’ confirmed availability, or lack thereof, can truly change the way your lineup looks when the slate locks. It’s a Mojito Monday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

The availability of many crucial players tonight can shift the slate in a heartbeat. To name a few, the statuses of Chris Paul, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tyler Herro, and Jalen Green can alter lineups drastically. Moreover, OKC and Golden State are on the second halves of their back-to-backs, while Los Angeles and San Antonio are on the front end of theirs. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons (+4.5)

Toronto Raptors (-4.5)

With both Fred VanVleet (illness) and Pascal Siakam (adductor) out for tonight’s game, the Raptors will be popular. The main contributors, Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby, are both going to carry the bulk of offensive touches, in addition to Gary Trent Jr. Moreover, there are pieces to this offense in all areas of the pricing grid. Thad Young and Otto Porter Jr. will likely garner interest if they start, as will Chris Boucher off the bench. Meanwhile, Malachi Flynn, Dalano Banton, and Juancho Hernangomez will round out the rotation off the bench. While preferences will depend on the DFS player, there is no way you can avoid this offense altogether on tonight’s NBA slate – it’s up to you to determine how you get exposure to it with the rest of your lineup.

Detroit Pistons (+4.5)

With Cade Cunningham (leg) out for tonight, plenty of offensive looks open up for others. Jaden Ivey has been the primary benefactor with Cunningham out of the lineup for two games this season. Ivey has seen an uptick in usage rate from 22.6% to 28% in this scenario, which leads the team. Moreover, Ivey has been far more efficient when assuming the role of the primary ball handler with Cunningham out rather than playing off the ball, seeing a 22% increase in three-point percentage. Other interest in this offense can come in the form of Saddiq Bey, Bojan Bogdanovic, or Isaiah Stewart, but do not overlook the upside of Killian Hayes and Alec Burks, should Cory Joseph (hip) be ruled out.

Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

Atlanta Hawks (+4.5)

In what should be one of, if not the best game on the NBA slate, sparks will fly between two heavyweights in the Eastern Conference. If you are looking for a 1-2 punch with two studs at the top of the pricing grid, this is where you want to be. With Giannis likely making his return to the lineup tonight, the Bucks get the reinforcements they need to keep this one competitive.

Trae Young has more scoring upside and dominates the first unit, while Dejounte Murray excels on the glass and an elite combination of scoring and passing. Tonight, with Jrue Holiday out, the Bucks’ perimeter defense takes a hit. Thus, I’ll be turning to Trae Young as the primary ball handler. Leading the team with a 35.4% usage rate, notably 10% higher than Murray, Trae Young has a sizeable advantage over Jevon Carter. Additionally, Young not only sits 10th in the NBA in scoring, but also ranks 3rd in assists per game. Averaging 27.3/2.3/9.3 over his last four games, Young carries a low floor due to his lack of efficiency at times. However, the same scenario demonstrates an unmatched volume, in an offense he dominates, that is in the best game environment on the slate.

Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5)

While Jrue Holiday (ankle) has been ruled out for a third consecutive game, Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to make his return to the lineup. Should the perennial MVP candidate be without a minutes limit, it will be hard to ignore his upside. Carrying a 37.5% usage rate into tonight’s game, Giannis has posted a 31.8/12.2/5.3 scoring line on 54.2% shooting. While Atlanta ranking 23rd in the NBA in points allowed in the paint, Giannis is set to return in a tremendous game environment.

Honorable Mentions:

Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic (-1)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets (+5.5)
San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors (-8)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 11/11

DFSGhost 2 years ago

written by DFSGhost

It wouldn’t be a Friday in the NBA without one of, if not the league’s best player being ruled out 24 hours in advance of the slate. Moreover, injuries to other stars have created new dynamics in offenses around the league, shifting the fantasy landscape. Tonight, there are many spots that are intriguing to us. It’s a Fajita Friday edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

Multiple stars have already been ruled out for tonight. Moreover, there are some question marks surrounding the availability of others that can alter the slate in a drastic way. Thus, be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Toronto Raptors @ OKC Thunder (+5.5)

Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

With Pascal Siakam (adductor) having missed the last three games, Fred VanVleet has found his touch on offense. Leading the team with a 28.1% usage rate during that span, FVV has dropped 30 or more points in two of three appearances, while also posting a 27-point effort. Lining up against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is no easy feat, but VanVleet has carried this offense to two wins in their last three games without Siakam. He’ll be popular for cash games, while also making for a safe floor, high ceiling option in tournaments on this NBA slate.

OKC Thunder (+5.5)

The only real interest I have in this offense is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. If you’re into narratives, which are surely part of the fun in NBA DFS, how about the Canadian playing his hometown team while rumors circle about his potential desire to play for them? Nonetheless, SGA has been performing at an all-star caliber this season. Leading the team with a 32.1% usage rate, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged a whopping 31.6 PPG on 53.7% shooting, good for fifth in the NBA scoring race. The matchup is far from ideal against Toronto’s stingy defense, so don’t force this one if you have more preferable spots.

Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs (+1)

Milwaukee Bucks (-1)

Welcome to the value of the NBA slate. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle) and Jrue Holiday (ankle) join Khris Middleton (wrist) on the sidelines tonight. Thus, the field will likely flock to Jevon Carter, who is fresh off a 36/4/12 game against OKC. Carter led the team in usage rate (32.4%) and field goal attempts (15), but he will be one of the most rostered players in the field. If you’re playing Carter or a combination of Grayson Allen, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, or Marjon Beauchamp, be sure to get different elsewhere in your lineups.

San Antonio Spurs (+1)

Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo missing from the lineup, the presence of Brook Lopez on the interior still concerns me regarding the Spurs frontcourt. Thus, I have interest in going back to the well with Keldon Johnson or Devin Vassell on this NBA slate. The two have phenomenal matchups on the wing with the Bucks’ injuries. Moreover, the way Gregg Popovich has staggered their minutes makes their fantasy appeal all that much greater. Vassell comes off mid way through the first quarter and checks back in with 3-4 bench players, making him the preferred target of the two due to dominant usage at the beginning of the second and fourth quarters. Having scored 20 or more points in 6 of 8 appearances this season, Vassell ranks second on the team behind Johnson in both usage and scoring, shooting 46.2% from the field and 45.2% from deep.

Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers (+3)

Sacramento Kings (-3)

For those that enjoy the late night hammer on NBA slates, tonight is your night. There are plenty of good games after opening tipoff, and this is certainly one of them. Make no mistake about it, I love both De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis in this spot, but I want to highlight another player as well. What Malik Monk has been doing off the bench in Sacramento has gone under-appreciated. Having scored in double digits across his last four games, Monk is heating up as one of the first players off the bench in this offense. During that span, Monk has seen an increase in minutes, logging over 27 per contest. Moreover, he has posted an 18/2.3/5.3 scoring line on 50% shooting, including 44% from behind the arc. Facing his former team tonight, Monk will have the green light to shoot a ton.

Los Angeles Lakers (+3)

With LeBron James slated to miss the next two games for the Lakers, things will get even more interesting in Los Angeles. Since moving to the bench, Russell Westbrook has looked rejuvenated. During that stretch, he is second on the team in usage rate behind LeBron, while posting an 18.6/5.1/7.1 scoring line on 49.5% shooting, including a much-improved 42.9% from deep. With both of these teams sitting inside the top 10 in the NBA in pace, including the Lakers leading the league, this one will play fast and in transition. Not only is that the type of game environment where Westbrook has carved out a Hall of Fame career, but he also has a great matchup versus a Kings defense that ranks 22nd versus primary ball handlers.

Honorable Mentions:

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies (-5)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors (-2)

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

2 years ago 0 comments

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