NBA dfs

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/9

Happy Klay Thompson Day to all who are celebrating, and if that’s not you, check yourself. It’s great to have Klay back and I can’t wait to see him. For context, the last time that Klay suited up, Ja Morant was not in the league. I don’t think he’s the smartest play tonight with an expectation of 15-20 minutes, but I might take a stab on Yahoo at just $14. Let’s get into the rest of the slate because there are some really fun games in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/9 to find what we like! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Kings at Blazers 

Kings – We have eight games tonight, one of the largest slates on a Sunday we’ve had all year. However, when we get a game between two of the bottom four teams in defensive rating, you better believe that’s where we start. Sacramento is still playing at a top 10 pace so they’ll drag the Blazers up towards them and we’ll need news on De’Aaron Fox. He could miss this game and if he does, Tyrese Haliburton would be an absolute lock. I would love to roster one of these two guards but Haliburton without Fox was a walking double-double earlier this season. He only has 1.02 fantasy points per minute but that is not reflective of his upside when he gets a full game without Fox and his assist rate is 37.4%. He is highly volatile, but this would be a good spot for Buddy Hield to go nuclear from deep because the Balzers allow the highest FG% from 3-point land on the season. His upside climbs as well if Fox is out. 

Blazers – Anfernee Simons is the primary target here even though he’s coming off a poor game shooting as he only went 2-8 from a 3-point distance. However, he still hit 31 DraftKings Points because he dished seven assists and his usage is up to 29.1% with a 26.9% assist rate without Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. The salary is starting to get up there for Jusuf Nurkić but it’s hard to ignore he went for a monster double-double and 42.5 DK points last game….on 5-17 shooting. He’s threatening 1.40 fantasy points per minute without the two studs and Sacramento’s interior is vulnerable. Nurk has 18.1 rebound chances per game and the Kings are 27th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Norman Powell is in play but it’s easier to sink under the $7,000 threshold and just play Simons. 

Grizzlies at Lakers 

Grizzlies – Assuming Ja Morant suits up tonight, he will be in a good chunk of my lineups and that’s all there is to it. Dillon Brooks left yesterday’s game very early and couldn’t shoot free throws when he left, so I would be stunned if he played tonight. Kyle Anderson is also likely still out and taking those two players off the floor this year gives Morant 1.56 fantasy points per minute and a 32.8% usage rate. The Lakers still have some issues with perimeter defense and even though Avery Bradley played well last game against Trae Young, I’m not going to sit here and worry about Avery Bradley. Both teams are in the top 12 in pace and the Lakers are 22nd in points allowed in the paint. 

Ja takes the most field goals off drives to the hoop at 10.9 and points scored at 13.6. If you absolutely can’t fit Ja, Desmond Bane is ready to go and he has a 22.7% usage in this scenario. Bane is a lethal shooter from beyond the arc and LA is allowing the eighth-most attempts per game on the year. I’m not likely to chase Jaren Jackson Jr. from yesterday because he had eight combined blocks and steals. Brandon Clarke will likely be popular as long as Steven Adams remains out and Clarke is under $5,000 on DraftKings. Both teams are in the top 12 in rebounding on the season and they’ll need Clarke on the glass at the very least. 

Lakers – I’m not telling you to not play LeBron James but what I will say is he’s settling for the three a lot anymore. In the past five games, he’s averaging nearly 10 3-point FGA per game and for context, that would be second in the league behind only Steph Curry. There is evident upside at the salary but there is a little more volatility than I think we’ve been discussing while he’s playing like this. I don’t think I can stomach Malik Monk at his salary on DK but he’s been running with the starters and the Lakers have been playing much better. Just like Hield, he can shoot the lights out of the gym any given night but if he’s off and/or not shooting, you’re going to get nothing at a salary over $6,000. 

Timberwolves at Rockets 

It can be frustrating when the main cogs are healthy, but Karl-Anthony Towns under $10,000 against the team that is third in pace (Minnesota is sixth) and ninth in defensive rating is very hard to not want to play. Houston is in the bottom five in rebounds and points allowed in the paint and even though KAT doesn’t dominate in the paint, nobody can stop him. He’s in the top 10 in points per game in the post-up play type and he still has 1.30 fantasy points per minute even with Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell in the lineup. I’m not exactly forcing a run-back but Christian Wood is still underpriced by about $1,000 and this total is near 230, so getting something from this game is going to be a wise move. The issue is just Houston is SO hard to peg their rotation that there is massive risk involved. 

Teams to Monitor 

Magic – If there are no restrictions on a back-to-back, Cole Anthony is wildly cheap for a player that is closing in on a 29% usage rate for his team. He’s been struggling with an ankle injury, so if he’s out we can get some value from a player like R.J Hampton and possibly Garry Harris/Terance Ross. 

Mavericks – Luka Doncic is questionable while Kristaps Porzingis is still listed as out. If Luka doesn’t play, Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Maxi Kleber would be the three players we’d target the most. Ghost pointed this out for their last game, but THJ actually has the higher usage rate (30.8% to 28.2%) and points per minute (1.21 to 1.09) and should come in at half the ownership of Brunson, if not lower. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/8

We’ve got five games in front of us tonight and thankfully, the Memphis Grizzlies aren’t on the slate because they’re going to be short and NBA lineups have been tough enough lately. That’s one less team to worry about in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/8 so let’s start figuring out who we like tonight! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Jazz at Pacers

Jazz – It’s possible they decide to field a team today that we actually know since they elected to sit almost their entire top eight rotation players last night. In fairness, there are Covid issues mixed in but a lot of it appeared to be “injuries” that may not be that serious and players will be active tonight. It’s frustrating that the NBA seems alright with this approach but I’ll be prepared to eat my words if these turn into legitimate injuries. With the top-eight players being out last night, we need to see who’s even available before diving into this team. Just know that if they are missing eight players again, Elijah Hughes, Jared Butler, and Eric Paschall were all massive chalk last night and they are still minimum. Your build would start with the three players. 

Pacers – It’s possible that Malcolm Brogdon is back for this game and the salary would be appealing as long as Caris LeVert does not make it out of protocols for this game. He’s been out of action for nearly 20 days so Brogdon might face a minutes limit and we’ll need to monitor that. If he’s not back and the Pacers are status quo, Kiefer Sykes has been channeling his in Jordan and scored at least 18 real points in the past two games while playing 38 and 40 minutes. DraftKings has decided he doesn’t need to be priced up so he’s still way too cheap. This game has the most news that we need on the surface. 

Bucks at Hornets 

Bucks – I don’t think we’ll get anyone sitting out on the back-to-back since the Bucks are currently down five rotation players including Brook Lopez. Provided Jrue Holiday is still out, Giannis Antetokounmpo appears to be THE spend-up option. No other player is over $10,400 on DraftKings and without Holiday on the floor, Giannis is sitting at a 37.1% usage rate and 1.77 points per minute. There aren’t many more talented big men in the NBA and we’ve hammered the Hornets all season with big men. The Hornets are still leading in pace and 28th in defensive rating, setting the stage for Giannis to flirt with 70 DraftKings points tonight. 

Hornets – I don’t think you HAVE to have a Hornets run-back, and I would at least caution against LaMelo Ball. It’s not he doesn’t have a ceiling but his minutes are so difficult to predict. There are some blowouts but even in a three-point game, he played 31 minutes. That’s not what I want to see with a $9,500 player and he needs efficiency to hit the ceiling score. That’s still a moving target with Ball, for all of his skills. If you’re going for a run-back, someone like Terry Rozier could make some sense because he can get red-hot from the field and the Bucks allow the most 3-point attempts per game. His minutes aren’t the steadiest either but he’s also almost $3,000 less than Ball, has a 23% usage rate, and 0.98 points per minute. 

Teams to Consider 

Heat – Jimmy Butler could be back for this contest and at $9,300, he’d deserve a look. Even with Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro active, they are still without Bam Adebayo for a while longer. Even just taking him off the floor has left Butler with a 29.6% usage rate and 1.39 fantasy points per minute, ratios you just don’t get at that salary. 

Magic – They are getting healthier, but if Cole Anthony is off his minute restriction, he’s very affordable as well. The Magic are still without Jalen Suggs for sure and Franz Wagner is questionable as well. Detroit is playing at the 10th fastest pace so this is a strong spot for a player that is close to 1.20 fantasy points per minute. Once again, the Jazz holds this slate hostage but they are in the first window of games, so we should know what we need before lock. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/6

We have just four games tonight and this is going to be a very interesting slate. We have almost no options in the high range today and the ones we do have are on a back-to-back, which can lead to guys sitting. It could turn into a balanced slate or stars and scrubs if people sit, so let’s get to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/6!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Warriors at Pelicans 

Warriors – We’re starting with the Warriors because it sure seems like we’re going to have value. Coach Steve Kerr said Steph Curry is “uncertain” with a quad and that would explain Curry having a miserable game last night. When he’s off the court, the duo of Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins have the usage lead at 32.5% for Poole and 27.9% for Wiggins. Poole has also generated 1.10 fantasy points per minute and Wiggins is at 0.84 and Poole is $1,000 cheaper, so this is an easy decision in my view. The defensive rating of 24th for the Pelicans is also appealing and we could get other value as well. Otto Porter and Andre Iguodala were both out last night so players like Gary Payton, Damion Lee, and others could be in play. 

Pelicans – They are mostly healthy so it’s likely best to stick with the big guns if we’re looking for a run-back option. Jonas Valanciunas and Brandon Ingram both stand out as Ingram has a 30% usage on the season and JoVal has 1.25 fantasy points per minute. Golden State is in the top 10 in rebounds and points allowed in the paint, but Valanciunas is a guy that can challenge that interior. He’s ninth in paint touches in the league and sixth in points scored in the paint. 

Clippers vs Suns 

Clippers – The salaries are back down to playable to some extent and they got smoked in their last game out. They will still be down to Reggie Jackson, Eric Bledsoe, Marcus Morris, and Terrance Mann as the main guys. Serge Ibaka has been popular in the last few games but he’s been miserable. He went 7-7 from the floor last game and still only scored 25 DK and has yet to exceed 22 minutes. The first trio leads the team in usage rate and they all hover between 25-26% in the past couple of weeks. I’d rather go with a guard here like Jackson since Morris could see Mikal Bridges, not something I’m super excited to tangle with. I’m likely going just one Clipper with possibly two. 

Suns – We’re right back to the Jalen Smith Express since Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee are out of protocols but not active yet. The last game saw him deal with foul trouble and an injury scare, so he only played 16 minutes and he still put up 22.3 DraftKings points. He has 1.24 fantasy points per minute over the past two weeks and with the Clippers still being short big men, this is a strong spot. He has averaged 8.2 points in the paint since he was thrown into the starting lineup and he can even hit an occasional three. Devin Booker has been playing lights out lately and he’s sporting a 32.5% usage rate with the Suns down the players they are and 1.28 points per minute. He shouldn’t be under $9,000. 

Teams To Monitor 

Celtics – They are almost totally healthy but did play last night. With some guys on the Covid list for a lengthy amount of time, it’s possible someone sits that we don’t expect right now. 

Memphis – The duo of Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton is questionable for this game, but Desmond Bane and Kyle Anderson are both doubtful. That would leave Ja Morant in a great spot as Detroit is surprisingly in the top 10 in pace this season and in the bottom six in defensive rating. It’s only a 52-minute sample, but Ja is at 1.46 fantasy points per minute and Brooks is at 1.28. If Brooks is not limited, they make a strong duo to target here. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/5

We have a monster slate in front of us tonight with 22 teams in action and a whole lot of players to monitor. As is always the case, you need to be around all night because anything can happen with so many teams in play. Let’s start outlining the spots we like in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/5 to find paths to green screens!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Hawks at Kings 

Hawks – The majority of the most appealing games are in the late window and this one has to be up there. The biggest question in this game is Trae Young because he’s nursing a back injury but it sure didn’t bother him the other night when he scored 56 points. With the Hawks still heavily short-handed, Young has to carry this team and in the past week, he has had a 37.8% usage rate and 1.64 FPPM. While Young is a very strong target, we likely don’t want to bank on him scoring 56 real points again and there are some other Hawks to look at. 

The trio of Cam Reddish, Kevin Huerter, and even Danilo Gallinari all can get a look against a Kings team on a back-to-back spot. We all know they play at a top 10 pace and bottom five in defensive rating, facets not likely to improve tonight. Reddish was out this past game and both Gallo and Huerter played 32 minutes. Gallo would be the prime candidate to see his minutes reduce if Reddish makes it back but Huerter is a strong target regardless of format. If he was able to play 37 minutes in his first game out of protocols, that’s a very positive step. Clint Capela is also well in play in a great spot in the paint. 

Kings – The Kings are still actively playing as this is being written but nobody is priced over $7,700. Both De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton are primary options are Haliburton has been dishing assists, a shift in the offense. Fox has been more in the backseat as far as ball distribution, but we’ll need to see how they shake out during the day. 

Heat at Blazers 

Heat – This game should have plenty of chalky pieces but we’ll start with the visitors. Jimmy Butler is out for this game, joining Bam Adebayo and others. Miami could get some reinforcements depending on protocols, but the main targets are the group of Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Omer Yurtseven, and then possibly Caleb Martin. These players all went for over 33 minutes and that was even with Yurtseven missing most of the first quarter. The sample size keeps getting bigger, but Lowry and Herro are both at 1.07 FPPM and 1.10 FPPM. The salaries are affordable and Lowry is likely the better cash play while Herro has a little more upside and usage at 31.5%. Yurtseven is very strong at his salary and they’ll need him on the interior, while we need to see who all is available for the heat before deciding on Martin. 

Blazers – After lighting it up in his first game back, I fully expect Anfernee Simons to be among the chalkiest plays on the slate again. He’s not going to score 43 real points again but at this salary, he doesn’t need to come close to that. The Blazers are missing both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum again tonight and Simons has a 31.5% usage rate in that scenario with 1.00 fantasy points per minute. Norman Powell isn’t far behind those marks and Jusuf Nurkic feels a little expensive, but he actually leads the team in usage at 33.9% and fantasy points per minute at 1.37. He put up over 40 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes and he could see a minute bump after getting a game under his belt. The field could flock to Nassir Little as well. Larry Nance is doubtful for tonight and even though Little was already starting, he went nuts last game and Robert Covington likely enters the starting lineup. The quartet of Simons, Powell, Nurk, and Little are all very viable tonight. 

Raptors at Bucks 

Raptors – Toronto is still missing some role players, so expect BIG minutes from the starters again. I really like Fred VanVleet not only because the guy is running hot, but he’s over 40% from three this season. Milwaukee is allowing the highest frequency of attempts at almost 47% and total attempts per game at 42. OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam are all in play and the good news is they blew out the Spurs last night. These players mostly played fewer minutes than their average and the Bucks push the pace at ninth in the league. 

Bucks – Milwaukee is going to be without a lot of depth tonight as Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, and Donte DiVincenzo are all out. Jordan Nwora is questionable and he may have to move into the starting lineup. Based on the last game, they have roughly 50 minutes to fill in their rotation. The main cogs are going to pick up some of that slack and Giannis Antetokounmpo is about as safe as they cam for floor and his ceiling is over 75 DraftKings points. It’s not like he only sits in the paint, but Toronto is 22nd in points allowed in the paint and has little to offer for resistance. 

Teams to Monitor 

Jazz – The slate could really flip on its head depending on what the Jazz do tonight. Joe Ingles is out, while Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, and Hassan Whiteside are all questionable. This team could have massive value, or they could be the exact same as always if everyone winds up playing. 

Pacers – I’m hoping they get Malcolm Brogdon back tonight because Duane Washington and Keifer Sykes went down in salary. Thanks, DraftKings, just make things even chalkier. 

76ers – They are mostly healthy but Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey are out. That means Seth Curry will have to handle the point guard duties and with him being $300 more than Simons, he’ll check in as an elite GPP target. 

Rockets – They should get Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. back tonight. Wood is under $6,500 against Washington, which is an incredible bargain if you trust the minutes. 

Wizards – They are likely without Spencer Dinwiddie, leaving Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma as options tonight. 

Mavericks – Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled out, so Luka Doncic and Maxi Kleber would be the primary options. Just keep in mind that Luka without KP this year has only added 1.9% for his usage and 0.05 FPPM, so it hasn’t been a giant spike. That’s not to say don’t think about playing him, just to understand what he’s shown. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/2

We get another six games tonight after yet another chaos-filled slate last night. We had the trifecta of a non-start, a takeout with Christian Wood, and absurd chalk players going absolutely bananas. Heck, a player left the arena at halftime last night. Let’s see what this slate has in store for us in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/2 and carve paths to green screens!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Teams to Target 

Phoenix Suns 

We’re going to tweak things just a bit and focus on teams in this article because one thing we’re learning is the field is not afraid to sack 3-4 players from teams that are missing key roster players. I can bet right now that Jalen Smith is going to be one of, if not the highest-rostered players on this slate. Both Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee remain out along with Jae Crowder. Smith was a high pick for this regime and in just 26 minutes last game produced 29 DraftKings points as the Suns got smashed but Boston. He did foul five times but the matchup against the Hornets is way different than Robert “Time Lord” Williams. 

When we take McGee, Ayton, and Jae Crowder off the floor for the Suns this year, most of the team is stagnant as far as usage and FPPM. In that sample, Smith is at 1.06 fantasy points per minute which is great in this environment. It’s been under that radar because Chris Paul’s teams typically are slower but the Suns are fifth in pace. With the Charlotte Hornets sitting third, this game is going to be a track meet. Cam Johnson is well in play here as well with a consistent 30 minutes lately and he should be popular as well. I would be surprised if this game doesn’t have the highest total and the spread opened at -2 for Phoenix, the smallest on the slate. 

Run-Back Options – LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, TBD on Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington’s status

Miami Heat 

If the Suns game doesn’t carry the highest total, there are two others that might, and one is the Heat taking on the Sacramento Kings. Miami is still rocking half a G-League team and the Kings are still the kings, which means bottom five defensively and top seven in pace. Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Caleb Martin all played at least 35 minutes and Omer Yurtseven played right at 30 minutes. Kyle Guy was the only other player to play anything over 15 minutes, so the rotation couldn’t be much more condensed. Butler had one of the weirdest games last time because he scored 37 real points and combined for three boards and assists. Typically, his appeal is that he can get 5+ of the peripheral stats and 24+ points, so you better believe I’m willing to go back. 

Lowry, Herro, and Yurtseven all got up there in salary and I can’t say it’s not deserved. However, they are at points where you need to think about it. We have a player that’s a lock we haven’t talked about yet and then we’ll still need to fit others. Just looking in the past week, Butler has 1.49 fantasy points per minute while Herro is at 1.09 and Yurtseven is 1.13. It certainly isn’t a large sample but it gives us an idea of how this team is functioning. Lowry’s usage was under 20%, so this might be the Butler/Yurtseven show for me and that’s it. 

Run-Back Options – Might use Alex Len as a cheap center, the Kings are tough to love a run-back option. They are still priced like De’Aaron Fox is out and he’s been dreadful since his return. 

Los Angeles Lakers

It’s the King’s world and we’re just chilling watching greatness. LeBron James is on some kind of tear in the past five games and racked up 78 DK in 29 minutes last game. He’s been playing center and just smashing for fantasy, and with Karl-Anthony Towns still out for Minnesota, his path at the center is even easier. In the past two weeks, Bron has had a 34.1% usage and 1.81 fantasy points per minute. He understands the assignment and the Lakers are not good enough to win without him at his best and Anthony Davis on the sidelines. I have no real interest in Russell Westbrook right now and you can play Carmelo Anthony but if his shot doesn’t fall, you’re in trouble. 

This game might have the most appealing run-back options in Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverly, and Malik Beasley. With KAT and D’Angelo Russell out, they all have a usage of at least 17.7% (Beverly, Edwards is pushing 34%) and fantasy points per minute of at least 0.84. The Lakers have a bottom-10 defensive rating without AD on the floor and that’s going to lead to plenty of opportunity for this trio. My builds will start with Jalen Smith, LeBron James, and then one of Edwards or Butler. 

Run-Backs – Edwards, Beverly, Beasley 

Other Teams to Mention Players in the Pool

Magic – They have some questionable players, but Mo Wagner and Tim Frazier could be very strong values. 

Pacers – Caris Levert, Torrey Craig

Mavericks – Luka Doncic should be back, but it’s unclear if he’ll face any restrictions. Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful so Maxi Kleber will be a popular value at $3,700 on DK. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/1

Happy New Year to all and let’s shoot to make this a great first day of the year for NBA action! We have five games on the main slate across the board tonight with half the teams on the slate in a back-to-back situation, so let’s keep that in mind. Having said that, let’s get to work in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/1 and start carving out paths to green!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Clippers at Nets 

The Clippers played last night so we’ll need to see who can even play and who may sit out this game. I would think the smart money could be on Serge Ibaka not playing since he had to play last night. The Clips can run a little smaller with the Nets and perhaps Marcus Morris sees a minutes limit. To be fair to Ibaka, he did only play 18 minutes so maybe he suits up. Provided Morris is not on a limit, he’s the preferred piece from the Lakers lineup since he’s still under $6,000 on DraftKings despite scoring at least 35 DraftKings points over the past five games. Morris only has about 52 minutes (more after last night) without Paul George and Ivica Zubac and Morris has a usage rate of 29.1% and 1.13 fantasy points per minute. Reggie Jackson boasts the highest usage rate of 30.6, but being priced over $8,000 is tough to swallow. The Nets playing at the ninth-fastest pace is only going to help the Clippers side of things. 

For the Nets, don’t look now but James Harden seems to be finding his form and he posted another huge triple-double with Kevin Durant in the lineup. All of the sudden, the usage and fantasy points per minute are looking similar between these two and it’s not as easy to just say play Durant anymore. What is really noticeable is one the past 10 games, Harden has double-digit free throws in five of them. He’s driving to the hoop almost four times more per game and that’s more what we know for Harden. Playing a perimeter defense of Jackson and Eric Bledsoe is a big boost, as is the fact the Clippers have no true center to help protect the paint. He may wind up being my main target on the slate as a whole, which is notable because Nikola Jokic plays tonight. 

It’s a little tough to bank on minutes for the secondary gas as the Nets get players back from protocols and everyone gets their conditioning up, but Nic Claxton really has my interest. He’s under $5,000 and he played 33 minutes in the past game, and this is going to be a solid matchup. On the season, they are second in points allowed in the paint but without their top two centers, that changes things significantly. Claxton would have an outside shot at a double-double in this environment if he gets the minutes. 

Bulls at Wizards 

One of the first players I’m heading to on this slate is Coby White. He’s back from his injury and both Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso are out as of this writing. He’s playing big minutes with the starters and has posed 40+ DK in back-to-back games. He’s not super likely to score that many as without Ball and Caruso, White sits at 0.88 fantasy points per minute. However, White is still under $5,000 and Washington is down to 22nd in defensive rating on the season. Of the big three, Nikola Vucevic would lead my priority list as this is a cupcake matchup on the interior. Washington is 28th in points allowed in the paint and 18th in rebounds allowed in the paint and Vuc should totally dominate. A start of Harden/Claxton/White/Vuc leaves us with $4,850 for the other four spots on DK. 

For the Washington side, Bradley Beal went nuts and played like last year’s version for one of the few times this season. I want to find a little bit extra to get to Harden, but Beal is well in play and without Spencer Dinwiddie, Beal has a 32% usage rate and 1.21 fantasy points per minute. For the secondary players, I still think someone like Corey Kispert is worth a look in GPP. He’s not likely to start but he played 28 minutes in the last game and shot just 2-10 from the field. Kyle Kuzma feels a little pricey and Daniel Gafford could be chalky again. His salary barely moved and he should have to play another 30+ minutes. You can also consider Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as the last man in the lineup as playing 29 minutes in his first game back from protocols was encouraging. 

Nuggets – It’s Nikola Jokic against the Rockets, which is a fantasy dream. The choice between Joker and Harden is difficult for me, and it might well be Jokic in cash and then Harden in GPP. We also need to see who’s available because Denver had their prior game postponed. 

Pistons – I’m not super keen on going back to the well with Hamidou Diallo after his 60 DK outburst. However, both Luka Garza and Derrick Walton Jr. could provide some value to our lineups. Garza went for 6x last time out on 1-10 shooting and the Spurs have big men to keep him on the court. In the past week, Diallo and Shaddiq Bey have a usage rate of over 24% and FPPM of at least 1.06. Walton Jr. is at 0.69 which looks horrid but his true shooting is also 26.7% while Garza is 43.9% but has managed 0.90. If these guys hit some shots, they can crush value but remain volatile. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/30

We have a rare slate where the top of the pricing grid is mostly in play (as of now) but there are only four games, so value options may be slightly harder to come by tonight. There are a bunch of studs to choose from and one team that will likely offer some salary relief so let’s roll into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/30!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Sixers vs. Nets 

In one of the premier games on the slate, the 76ers take on the Nets and both teams are relatively healthy. Philly is almost totally whole and Joel Embiid finds himself in a dynamite spot. The Nets are seventh-worst in points allowed in the post-up game and that’s one aspect that Embiid leads the entire NBA in at nine points per game. The next closest player is Nikola Jokic at 5.1 points, so you can see Embiid is practically lapping the field. The secondary players are all in play as the Nets rank eighth in pace but they also are inside the top 10 in defensive rating. Tobias Harris is the only there starter above 0.90 fantasy points per minute and I won’t be paying almost $9,000 for him on his slate. 

For the Nets, they welcome back Kevin Durant, Cam Thomas, and LaMarcus Aldridge to the fold. James Harden has certainly found his groove over the past two games with no KD as he’s scored 75+ DraftKings points in each game. He just missed a triple-double in the second game and while the seasonal data has the usage at 31.9% to 28.6% in Durant’s favor, both players are right about 1.35 for the fantasy points per minute. What’s interesting is that the Sixers defense has held opponents to the fifth-worst FG% in isolation and Harden and KD rank first and third in points scored in the play type. With both players back in action, Patty Mills and Aldridge are too expensive for me. Perhaps you take a shot at Bruce Brown or Cam Thomas but even that is way harder to get right tonight. 

Cavaliers vs. Wizards 

Boy, the Cavs are in a tough spot tonight. They are without Collin Sexton as they have been all year, Darius Garland is in protocol and now Ricky Rubio has a torn ACL. We’ll need to see who all is active for them tonight but a player like Kevin Pangos could wind up being a value if that’s all they have left. Kevin Love keeps seeing his price rise but with all the players that are out, he should have to play 32 minutes again this game. He’s also shooting 42.6% beyond the arc this season. We’ll need to see if they get anyone back for this game because Garland could be interesting given his expected workload, but this is a team that could give us plenty of options. 

Bradley Beal is possibly back for the Wizards and if he is, that cuts into everyone else. I’m not sure I could pay into the five digits for him on this slate but now his teammates have mostly been priced out of range since he’s missed 10 days. The likes of Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyle Kuzma might be too pricey, Daniel Gafford is the best bargain on the team. I have been typically a little hesitant with big man against the Cavs but with Jarrett Allen out and Evan Mobley just being the lone man down low, he has a better shot at hitting. On top of that, Montrezl Harrell is out and Gafford played 36 minutes on the last slate. 

Bucks vs. Magic 

These two teams are running it back tonight and the Magic struggled to keep this one close last time. Giannis Antetokounmpo played just 30 minutes and he’s not been past that mark in the past two games. We all know that he is capable of wrecking everyone in 30 minutes and has 1.67 fantasy points per minute and a 34.6% usage rate this season. Orlando is just 26th in defensive rating on top of things, so it makes it a clear picture of why Giannis could go nuclear in just 30 minutes tonight. The rest of the starters are pricey, as you can’t expect someone like Bobby Portis to shoot 5-5 from deep again. Even when he did, he barely cleared 30 DraftKings points. The other group of Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are still priced in no-man’s land. If Donte DiVincenzo sees his minutes get increased into the 20’s and he starts, I would have interest at $4,000. 

The Magic continue to be battered by protocols and I’m at least sort of intrigued by Franz Wagner. The salary is a little hard to deal with but he absolutely showed his upside in the last game. Without Cole Anthony on the floor, Wagner has a 23.3% usage rate but his 47.8% true shooting rate has dragged down the fantasy points per minute to 0.88 on the year. Over the past two weeks, you can see the improvement at 29.9%, 1.13, and 55.3%. If the Magic continue to be so short, he is in play even at an inflated salary. R.J. Hampton will be another popular play because he was chalky last time and scored 24 DraftKings on just 4-11 shooting. We’ll see if anyone comes out of protocols for reinforcements. 

Warriors vs. Nuggets 

I think most of the field just goes Men In Black in the last matchup and just use the flashy thing to wipe the memory. The Warriors are without Draymond Green and that could lead Juan Toscano-Anderson could draw another start. It does appear that Jordan Poole will be back to join Andrew Wiggins and Steph Curry in the starting lineup. A small part of me wants to go right back to Curry because others will go to KD, Embiid, and others. Denver is 15th in defensive rating and has questionable perimeter defense while allowing almost a 40% frequency from deep. I don’t mind Poole if he’s not limited coming back and a cheap JTA, if he starts, could work out nicely. 

It’s the first time Nikola Jokic has been under the $12,000 mark for the first time since December 11th. That alone is notable and he is my primary target, as even in a game where the Nuggets didn’t clear 90 points he scored 60 DraftKings points and almost went for his third straight Barbara Walters game. He has the clear safest floor of any player on the slate and the only player with more theoretical upside is on the other side of this game. Will Barton is also on my radar regardless of anything else because he’s dipped below $6,000. That shouldn’t really happen and his FPPM over the past couple of weeks is still 0.88 even though he has a true shooting of just 44.3%. If Monte Morris and Aaron Gordon are out, that opens up the potential for Facundo Campazzo since he played 32 minutes and had 26 DraftKings points even though he too just five shots. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/29

We’ve got nine games in front of us tonight and the NBA continues to constantly shift every minute. Just like we have been lately, let’s talk about the games we like as we know things stand now. Discord will continue to refine and update our thoughts and keep us prepared for every slate, including the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/29!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Lakers vs. Grizzlies

The Lakers will be on a back-to-back but I doubt LeBron James sits tonight while the Lakers hover around .500 and generally are just falling short of expectations. Anthony Davis is not close to being back yet so LeBron gets to square off with a Grizzlies team that ranks 16th in defensive rating and 13th in pace. Both teams are in the top 10 in the league in possessions per game and LeBron is sitting at a 31% usage rate and 1.47 fantasy points per minute without AD. There are also chances for Carmelo Anthony or Malik Monk to be strong value plays, but they will be volatile. Their route is with the 3-point shot as Memphis is .3% away from leading the league in FG% given up. 

For the Grizzlies, they are still missing Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton, who are important rotation players. That means the trio of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane all see a bump. JJJ is at 1.07 fantasy points per minute while Ja has a 34.1% usage and 1.31 himself. Bane can shoot the absolute lights out and is at 42.6% for the year from deep. I have them Ja, Bane, JJJ but the wildcard of this team is Steven Adams. He should be able to wreak havoc in the paint, where the Lakers are 25th in points allowed and 15th in rebounds allowed. Those marks have come with AD for most of the year, which is not a good sign. Adams averages just under eight paint touches per game this season. 

Mavericks vs. Kings 

The Mavericks roll into Sacramento still missing Luka Doncic so the duo of Kristaps Porzingis and Jalen Brunson capture our attention tonight. The Kings are in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed to post-ups and while KP scores the fourth-most points per game in that play type. He’s been doing it even more with Luka out and he’s got the potential for another big game with the Kings top-six in pace and bottom-four in defensive rating. Brunson is not that different in potential with a 27.2% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute when Luka and Tim Hardaway Jr. are off the court. The Kings are also in the bottom-five of points given up to the pick-and-roll ball-handler, which Brunson runs at almost a 40% frequency. 

The Kings are mostly healthy as things stand and I would likely just have one player from Dallas and call this a day. However, this will be the third game in four days and I wonder if players who missed a lot of time in protocol could sit. They’d be among the teams to monitor because a run-back option could pop up through the day. 

Hornets vs. Pacers 

Charlotte is finally getting healthier and that leaves them all a bit more pricey than I would prefer. LaMelo Ball is always a threat to go for a triple-double but he wouldn’t be a priority at this point. It would help if Malcolm Brogdon sat for Indiana, as that defensive presence would be sorely missed against the explosiveness of Ball. The biggest exception is Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington are out and that does concentrate the usage a little bit more. Along with Ball, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre, and Jalen McDaniels see the usage go up by at least 1.9%. The Pacers are 25th in pace so they may try to slow this game down but the Hornets play so fast at the third-quickest pace in the league. Rozier may be the best option out of this team with his price as both he and Bridges are in the top 15 in spot-up points per game. 

On the Pacers side, this is a spot that we’ve hammered big men against all year but it does need to be said that on DK at least, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are expensive. Sabonis sees his usage and FPPM drop just a tick without Brogdon as well, so that’s worth pointing out. Having said they are expensive, Sabonis is still third in paint touches, fourth in paint points, and fifth in rebound chances per game. Charlotte is 28th in paint points allowed and 30th in paint rebonds, so this is the spot for him if there ever was one. He’s also back to playing 35 minutes when the game is close. Lastly, the Hornets are bottom 10 in FG% allowed to the roll man in the pick-and-roll while Sabonis is shooting 60% in that play type and is 10th in points per game. 

Honorable Mention Teams 

Jazz – Facing Portland without Donovan Mitchell is a massive bump for them. My main target is Jordan Clarkson, who has a 31.8% usage without Mitchell and needs to pick up some of the scoring slack. It’s a good thing Portland is 29th in defensive rating and leads the league in FG% allowed from 3-point range. Under $6,000 on DK is a gift that I intend to use. After that, Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic could be the last men in but not primary guys. I don’t think I’ll get there for the salary, but Rudy Gobert would have to be on Barbara Walters Watch (a 20/20 game) if the Blazers are still missing the entire interior defense. 

Suns – We expect Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton to remain out, which opens up guys like Cam Johnson, JaVale McGee, and Jalen Smith. I’ll be fascinated to see what happens with McGee since he killed everyone last game out and Smith doubled his production. There is no Steven Adams for OKC and McGee should have a much easier time in the paint. 

Pistons – They are still missing about everyone, so the group of Hamidou Diallo, Frank Jackson, and Luka Garza could provide some value. I do worry about the game staying close as they got annihilated right off the floor last time out by nearly 40 points. It may be wise to just grab one player here and we’ll let the model guide us. 

Clippers – Marcus Morris is back in Boston and without multiple players for LA, he’s a prime target in the mid-range. Morris has 1.28 fantasy pints per minute and 27.2% usage without Paul George and Reggie Jackson this season, albeit in just a 56-minute sample size. He played 27 minutes in his first game out of protocols so 30-32 isn’t crazy to think tonight and he’s the cheapest of the Clippers options of Eric Bledsoe, Luke Kennard, and Terrance Mann. 

Hawks – The rotation is basically Trae Young, Clint Capela, Cam Reddish, and whatever players on 10-day contracts that don’t have Covid right now. Let’s see if anyone gets cleared but they appear to be frightfully thin. 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/26

After a very fun Christmas Day slate, we turn our attention to the seven games we have tonight. There are still a bunch of teams that are shorthanded with protocols so the grind continues from that aspect. Let’s talk about the games that we’re looking at in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/26 to forge our way to green!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Nuggets at Clippers 

We already know that Nikola Jokić is one of the best fantasy options on any given sale and he’s going to be the main Nuggets player. There aren’t many players in the league that A. can take 34 shots in any game and B. score 63.8 DraftKings points while hitting just 13 of those 34 shots. He is always in play and there is very little on the Clippers interior to hold him back. 

The Clippers side of the Paul is going to be where a lot of attention comes from tonight. With the news that Paul George has a torn ligament in his elbow and Reggie Jackson being in protocols, that’s going to open up an enormous amount for the LA offense. With those two off the floor, the trio of Eric Bledsoe, Luke Kennard, and Terrance Mann has the most minutes and all three have a usage rate of at least 19.1% and fantasy points per minute of at least 0.93. They will badly need scoring and I’ll kick in Marcus Morris as well. 

These four should have to play a ton of minutes and Bledsoe should run the point to distribute the ball to the other three for the most part. Let’s make sure who’s all active because Kennard and Morris are questionable, but you likely need at least two Clips in the lineup tonight. Denver is down to 20th in defensive rating and LA plays at the 11th fastest pace in basketball. 

Grizzlies at Kings 

The Grizzlies do enter this game at full health as things stand, but I still have my eyes on Ja Morant. He shot just 6-15 against the Warriors but the Kings represent a matchup with two top 12 teams in pace and Sacramento is 28th in defensive rating. Morant played almost 32 minutes as he comes back from an injury, an encouraging sign. He was routinely at $10,000 or above to start the year and even with Dillon Brooks back, he’s still a hair cheap and could explode with 1.20 fantasy points per minute this year. Morant is second in the league in drives per game at 19.5 and the Kings are going to have an issue keeping him in front of them. 

As long as the situation for the Kings does not change, Tyrese Haliburton would be one of the better plays on the slate. We’ll need clarity on this though because it has been 10 days since De’Aaron Fox has entered the protocols. He should be out today but that is not a guarantee that he’ll be active. With a full stay in the protocols, he may need to get his conditioning back under him. Haliburton has been an absolute stud in the four games without Fox (and sparked some questions about the future of Sacramento in some circles) and has a double-double in all four games. I’m a little less interested in the rest of the Kings now because Richaun Holmes should play more than 16 minutes and Marvin Bagley is back. I do want to see what the model does for Bagley. 

Raptors at Cavaliers 

Heavens, the Raptors enter this game with almost nobody to play. As of now, the entire starting five is in protocol and the new starting five should include Chris Boucher, Yuta Watanabe, and Svi Mykhailiuk. When we say thin, that doesn’t even begin to describe it for Toronto. The good news for a player like Boucher is Cleveland is down their two main pieces in the interior and you can’t be in the doghouse when the coach has no choice but to play you. Just like the Clippers, you need at least two Raptors and I think this trio should be the backbone of lineups. They have to play huge minutes and each should be able to put up at least 15 shots apiece. We’ll let the model guide us for the rest but be ready to play Toronto. You know it’s bad when their recent games have been postponed. 

On the Cavs side, we could see Tacko Fall start again but I’d be a little careful. He only played 19 minutes and while he’s still worthwhile in GPP, I’m not convinced he’s a free square. We should continue to look at Ricky Rubio because he’s not likely to shoot 2-12 again although his minutes didn’t move that much and Darius Garland is in play but expensive on DraftKings. The most cost-effective option could be Lauri Markkanen because he was at 33 minutes and also shot 2-12. He was able to grind out 19.8 DraftKings even shooting that poorly so there is some value to be had. I know we always joke about Kevin Love but the salary is high and you’re going to need some efficiency here. 

Teams To Monitor 

Pistons – They are missing just about everyone as well so the trio of Shaddiq Bey, Hamidou Diallo, and Corey Joseph is front and center. Joseph and Bey played over 40 minutes in the last game and now they lost Trey Lyles on top of it. 

Pelicans – Jonas Valanciunas and Nickell Alexander-Walker remain out and Willy Hernangomez is going to be a focal point of the evening. He went an astonishing 1-11 in 32 minutes last game and he gets the Thunder tonight. They are 21st in points allowed in the paint and 29th in rebounds allowed in the paint while Hernangomez had 12 paint touches and seven attempts last time. He’s not nearly expensive enough. 

Wizards – Bradley Beal remains out and Spencer Dinwiddie is a premier target in this game and on the slate. Beal has missed four games and Dinwiddie has scored 57, 49, 52, and 53 DraftKings points this year. 

Pacers – Both Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis missed the last game and are questionable. If they are out, Caris LeVert, Chris Durate, and Myles Turner all take a big step up. 

Early Build

Dinwiddie, 2-3 Raptors, 1-3 Clippers, and a spend up of Jokic or Dejounte Murray

ou can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/23

Over the past 10-14 days, the NBA has been under siege as far as Covid protocols and missing players. It’s been frustrating, it’s been a challenge, and it’s been a situation that is uncharted waters for all of us. However, one aspect that has been manageable is there have only been 5-7 games on a slate normally. Tonight ratchets the difficulty up with 11 games scheduled as of Wednesday night. Knowing that the slate complexion is likely to change about 187 times, let’s dig into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/23 and start laying out pathways to green. 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet

Pelicans vs. Magic 

Overall, this game is going to be a pretty strong source of value. For the Pelicans side, the main piece missing is Jonas Valanciunas who has already been ruled out. Willy Henrangomez is going to be at the front of a lot of people’s lists tonight at just $3,800 on DK. When JoVal is off the floor, Big Willy Style has the third-most minutes of anyone with a 20.5% usage and 1.36 fantasy points per minute. That is monstrous and Jaxson Hayes should see additional run as well but is at a 1.00 fantasy point per minute. As of late, Hernangomez has been the main backup so we should expect him to slide in as the starter. 

The Magic are still going to be popular, but two facets were notable. First, Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter Jr. were both out last night and are questionable tonight. That could throw a wrench into the value but also, the value guys had their minutes trimmed a little bit. Chuma Okeke, Gary Harris, and Robin Lopez all made out at about 30 minutes as opposed to 35+ when they had no other options. They’ve since signed backups and they started to spread the minutes a little bit more. If Anthony and Carter Jr. play, we’ll need to tread a little lighter with 2-4 Magic players tonight. If they don’t, the main trio is still in play but don’t expect nearly 40 minutes. Okeke and Lopez had weird games last night as well. Okeke shot 2-11 from 3-point distance but had six steals while Lopez dished ten assists. On a larger slate, Orlando could turn into a secondary target.

Hawks vs. Sixers 

I’m a little less interested in the Philly side of the equation since Tyrese Maxey and Furkan Korkmaz are both back tonight. Joel Embiid should destroy the interior of Atlanta but his salary has come up to uncomfortable proportions. Instead, the Hawks are the main focus like they were last night. Cam Reddish is almost certainly going to be utter chalk after a 50 DK point game last night and he played 42 minutes. We shouldn’t expect that to change much and he took 23 shots. While he won’t shoot 6-10 from deep tonight, 30 DK is 6x return and 38-40 is well in play. With Trae Young, Clint Capela, and Kevin Huerter off the floor this year, Reddish is at 0.88 fantasy points per minute. I’m not going to be overly surprised to see Bogdan Bogdanovic sit out on the back-to-back either. He only played 22 minutes in his first game in a month and the Hawks had 11 bodies available with him last night. 

John Collins and Gorgui Dieng are likely going to be fades for me with Joel Embiid on the other side of this game and Delon Wright could wind up the same way, at least in GPP. It’s an accomplishment to play 39 minutes and score 25 DK points while shooting eight times. We have enough options to consider others so my main targets are Reddish and perhaps Lance Stephenson. That’s right, I said it. He played 22 minutes (possibly more if Bogdanovic sits) and racked up 18 DK points with one real point and 0-4 from the floor. Let’s see exactly who’s around for the Hawks because they can get bit by Covid today as well. 

Bucks vs. Mavericks 

If you’re not into building with a super expensive stud, you can sub in Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and potentially Jalen Brunson in this game on the high end. For the Bucks side, Giannis and Bobby Portis remains out and on the year, Holiday and Middleton have usage rate over 36% and fantasy points per minute of at least 1.29. Now there is a chance that Middleton could sit because he’s been dealing with a balky knee and played 28 minutes last night. If that’s the case, it opens the door more for Grayson Allen (who is supposed to be active tonight) and Jordan Nwora. It’s possible DeMarcus Cousins could have a seat as well, although he did play back-to-back recently and played 27 minutes in the second game after playing 16 in the first. 

Dallas is the team that could be very appealing because they are bare bones. If Kristaps Porzingis remains out, Brunson will play another 40 minutes along with Dorian Finney-Smith and both players are fairly priced. Without Luka and KP on the floor, DFS and Brunson both have fantasy points per minute of at least 0.93 and that’s with Tim Hardaway Jr. active (which he is not tonight). The last game also saw Sterling Brown log 32 minutes for 32.8 DK points. He’s well in play and that trio would be the focus from Dallas for me tonight, provided KP remains out. If he’s in, I may back off this team outside of DFS because the salaries are up there. 

Grizzlies vs. Warriors 

There’s not much to talk about on the Grizzlies side as far as missing players but Ja Morant is $8,600. He played 28 minutes in his return so we should expect around 32-33 tonight and on the season, he has a usage of 31.8% and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. Even when he and Dillon Brooks share the floor, he’s at 1.20 and Ja is simply too cheap. 

The Warriors side is going to offer a lot of value. They are missing Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee, and Andre Iguodala. The last game saw Lee play 30 minutes and Iggy was at 24, so there are a lot of minutes to fill at this point. Otto Porter really jumps off the page here as he played 30 minutes and likely should play more tonight. Without just Wiggins and Poole, Porter has 0.96 fantasy points per minute and I think he’s going to be popular. The sneaky plays could be Jonathan Kuminga and Nemanja Bjelica. If Porter is popular, these two could be much less sound Kuminga started the last game before leaving six minutes in with a back issue. When Bjelica has gotten minutes, he’s been strong with 1.14 fantasy points per minute, and that savings from Porter is fantastic. With so many minutes to cover, I think he has to play at least 22-25. 

It also has to be said that despite some putrid game logs lately, Steph Curry has a 35.8% usage and 1.59 fantasy points per minute on the season without Wiggins and Poole. He’s shooting 4% lower from the field in total this season than his career marks and the longer he goes without a nuclear game means he’s one game closer to going for 40 raw points. Memphis is 16th in defensive rating and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. The Grizzlies are also 0.4% away from leading the league in 3-point FG% allowed. 

Teams to Monitor

Nuggets – Nobody is injured, but Nikola Jokic is the best big man in the league and he faces the Charlotte front court that we’ve hammered all year long with talented bigs.

Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon left last game with an Achilles issue after just eight minutes. Chris Durate could be a nice value piece but I think I’ll have other options. 

Pistons – They are missing Cade Cunningham, Jerami Grant, and Kelly Olynyk. We could be looking at Frank Jackson and Hamidou Diallo as value pieces but the game environment is average, so I would not go overboard with all the other options. 

Knicks – This team is just about Kemba Walker because he’s still under $6,000. Derrick Rose had ankle surgery and they are still missing basically every guard they have. Kemba has gone from not playing at all to 37 and 40 minutes played because Thibs Gonna Thibs. He’s hit over 40 DraftKings points in both games and has 0.94 fantasy points per minute without Rose on the floor this year. 

Wolves – They are still missing Anthony Edwards and Patrick Beverly, among others. Still, playing in Utah is brutal and the blowout risk is tangible. 

Spurs – Dejounte Murray against Russell Westbrook perimeter defense. That is all. 

Spend Up Options 

Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, Joel Embiid, Dejounte Murray, LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant, Jalen Brunson (pending KP), Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton 

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life