Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/5
We have a monster slate in front of us tonight with 22 teams in action and a whole lot of players to monitor. As is always the case, you need to be around all night because anything can happen with so many teams in play. Let’s start outlining the spots we like in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/5 to find paths to green screens!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Hawks at Kings
Hawks – The majority of the most appealing games are in the late window and this one has to be up there. The biggest question in this game is Trae Young because he’s nursing a back injury but it sure didn’t bother him the other night when he scored 56 points. With the Hawks still heavily short-handed, Young has to carry this team and in the past week, he has had a 37.8% usage rate and 1.64 FPPM. While Young is a very strong target, we likely don’t want to bank on him scoring 56 real points again and there are some other Hawks to look at.
The trio of Cam Reddish, Kevin Huerter, and even Danilo Gallinari all can get a look against a Kings team on a back-to-back spot. We all know they play at a top 10 pace and bottom five in defensive rating, facets not likely to improve tonight. Reddish was out this past game and both Gallo and Huerter played 32 minutes. Gallo would be the prime candidate to see his minutes reduce if Reddish makes it back but Huerter is a strong target regardless of format. If he was able to play 37 minutes in his first game out of protocols, that’s a very positive step. Clint Capela is also well in play in a great spot in the paint.
Kings – The Kings are still actively playing as this is being written but nobody is priced over $7,700. Both De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton are primary options are Haliburton has been dishing assists, a shift in the offense. Fox has been more in the backseat as far as ball distribution, but we’ll need to see how they shake out during the day.
Heat at Blazers
Heat – This game should have plenty of chalky pieces but we’ll start with the visitors. Jimmy Butler is out for this game, joining Bam Adebayo and others. Miami could get some reinforcements depending on protocols, but the main targets are the group of Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Omer Yurtseven, and then possibly Caleb Martin. These players all went for over 33 minutes and that was even with Yurtseven missing most of the first quarter. The sample size keeps getting bigger, but Lowry and Herro are both at 1.07 FPPM and 1.10 FPPM. The salaries are affordable and Lowry is likely the better cash play while Herro has a little more upside and usage at 31.5%. Yurtseven is very strong at his salary and they’ll need him on the interior, while we need to see who all is available for the heat before deciding on Martin.
Blazers – After lighting it up in his first game back, I fully expect Anfernee Simons to be among the chalkiest plays on the slate again. He’s not going to score 43 real points again but at this salary, he doesn’t need to come close to that. The Blazers are missing both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum again tonight and Simons has a 31.5% usage rate in that scenario with 1.00 fantasy points per minute. Norman Powell isn’t far behind those marks and Jusuf Nurkic feels a little expensive, but he actually leads the team in usage at 33.9% and fantasy points per minute at 1.37. He put up over 40 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes and he could see a minute bump after getting a game under his belt. The field could flock to Nassir Little as well. Larry Nance is doubtful for tonight and even though Little was already starting, he went nuts last game and Robert Covington likely enters the starting lineup. The quartet of Simons, Powell, Nurk, and Little are all very viable tonight.
Raptors at Bucks
Raptors – Toronto is still missing some role players, so expect BIG minutes from the starters again. I really like Fred VanVleet not only because the guy is running hot, but he’s over 40% from three this season. Milwaukee is allowing the highest frequency of attempts at almost 47% and total attempts per game at 42. OG Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, and Pascal Siakam are all in play and the good news is they blew out the Spurs last night. These players mostly played fewer minutes than their average and the Bucks push the pace at ninth in the league.
Bucks – Milwaukee is going to be without a lot of depth tonight as Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, and Donte DiVincenzo are all out. Jordan Nwora is questionable and he may have to move into the starting lineup. Based on the last game, they have roughly 50 minutes to fill in their rotation. The main cogs are going to pick up some of that slack and Giannis Antetokounmpo is about as safe as they cam for floor and his ceiling is over 75 DraftKings points. It’s not like he only sits in the paint, but Toronto is 22nd in points allowed in the paint and has little to offer for resistance.
Teams to Monitor
Jazz – The slate could really flip on its head depending on what the Jazz do tonight. Joe Ingles is out, while Rudy Gobert, Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, and Hassan Whiteside are all questionable. This team could have massive value, or they could be the exact same as always if everyone winds up playing.
Pacers – I’m hoping they get Malcolm Brogdon back tonight because Duane Washington and Keifer Sykes went down in salary. Thanks, DraftKings, just make things even chalkier.
76ers – They are mostly healthy but Shake Milton and Tyrese Maxey are out. That means Seth Curry will have to handle the point guard duties and with him being $300 more than Simons, he’ll check in as an elite GPP target.
Rockets – They should get Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. back tonight. Wood is under $6,500 against Washington, which is an incredible bargain if you trust the minutes.
Wizards – They are likely without Spencer Dinwiddie, leaving Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma as options tonight.
Mavericks – Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled out, so Luka Doncic and Maxi Kleber would be the primary options. Just keep in mind that Luka without KP this year has only added 1.9% for his usage and 0.05 FPPM, so it hasn’t been a giant spike. That’s not to say don’t think about playing him, just to understand what he’s shown.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
