Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/2
We get another six games tonight after yet another chaos-filled slate last night. We had the trifecta of a non-start, a takeout with Christian Wood, and absurd chalk players going absolutely bananas. Heck, a player left the arena at halftime last night. Let’s see what this slate has in store for us in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/2 and carve paths to green screens!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Teams to Target
Phoenix Suns
We’re going to tweak things just a bit and focus on teams in this article because one thing we’re learning is the field is not afraid to sack 3-4 players from teams that are missing key roster players. I can bet right now that Jalen Smith is going to be one of, if not the highest-rostered players on this slate. Both Deandre Ayton and JaVale McGee remain out along with Jae Crowder. Smith was a high pick for this regime and in just 26 minutes last game produced 29 DraftKings points as the Suns got smashed but Boston. He did foul five times but the matchup against the Hornets is way different than Robert “Time Lord” Williams.
When we take McGee, Ayton, and Jae Crowder off the floor for the Suns this year, most of the team is stagnant as far as usage and FPPM. In that sample, Smith is at 1.06 fantasy points per minute which is great in this environment. It’s been under that radar because Chris Paul’s teams typically are slower but the Suns are fifth in pace. With the Charlotte Hornets sitting third, this game is going to be a track meet. Cam Johnson is well in play here as well with a consistent 30 minutes lately and he should be popular as well. I would be surprised if this game doesn’t have the highest total and the spread opened at -2 for Phoenix, the smallest on the slate.
Run-Back Options – LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, TBD on Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington’s status
Miami Heat
If the Suns game doesn’t carry the highest total, there are two others that might, and one is the Heat taking on the Sacramento Kings. Miami is still rocking half a G-League team and the Kings are still the kings, which means bottom five defensively and top seven in pace. Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Caleb Martin all played at least 35 minutes and Omer Yurtseven played right at 30 minutes. Kyle Guy was the only other player to play anything over 15 minutes, so the rotation couldn’t be much more condensed. Butler had one of the weirdest games last time because he scored 37 real points and combined for three boards and assists. Typically, his appeal is that he can get 5+ of the peripheral stats and 24+ points, so you better believe I’m willing to go back.
Lowry, Herro, and Yurtseven all got up there in salary and I can’t say it’s not deserved. However, they are at points where you need to think about it. We have a player that’s a lock we haven’t talked about yet and then we’ll still need to fit others. Just looking in the past week, Butler has 1.49 fantasy points per minute while Herro is at 1.09 and Yurtseven is 1.13. It certainly isn’t a large sample but it gives us an idea of how this team is functioning. Lowry’s usage was under 20%, so this might be the Butler/Yurtseven show for me and that’s it.
Run-Back Options – Might use Alex Len as a cheap center, the Kings are tough to love a run-back option. They are still priced like De’Aaron Fox is out and he’s been dreadful since his return.
Los Angeles Lakers
It’s the King’s world and we’re just chilling watching greatness. LeBron James is on some kind of tear in the past five games and racked up 78 DK in 29 minutes last game. He’s been playing center and just smashing for fantasy, and with Karl-Anthony Towns still out for Minnesota, his path at the center is even easier. In the past two weeks, Bron has had a 34.1% usage and 1.81 fantasy points per minute. He understands the assignment and the Lakers are not good enough to win without him at his best and Anthony Davis on the sidelines. I have no real interest in Russell Westbrook right now and you can play Carmelo Anthony but if his shot doesn’t fall, you’re in trouble.
This game might have the most appealing run-back options in Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverly, and Malik Beasley. With KAT and D’Angelo Russell out, they all have a usage of at least 17.7% (Beverly, Edwards is pushing 34%) and fantasy points per minute of at least 0.84. The Lakers have a bottom-10 defensive rating without AD on the floor and that’s going to lead to plenty of opportunity for this trio. My builds will start with Jalen Smith, LeBron James, and then one of Edwards or Butler.
Run-Backs – Edwards, Beverly, Beasley
Other Teams to Mention Players in the Pool
Magic – They have some questionable players, but Mo Wagner and Tim Frazier could be very strong values.
Pacers – Caris Levert, Torrey Craig
Mavericks – Luka Doncic should be back, but it’s unclear if he’ll face any restrictions. Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful so Maxi Kleber will be a popular value at $3,700 on DK.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
