Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/8
We’ve got five games in front of us tonight and thankfully, the Memphis Grizzlies aren’t on the slate because they’re going to be short and NBA lineups have been tough enough lately. That’s one less team to worry about in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 1/8 so let’s start figuring out who we like tonight!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Jazz at Pacers
Jazz – It’s possible they decide to field a team today that we actually know since they elected to sit almost their entire top eight rotation players last night. In fairness, there are Covid issues mixed in but a lot of it appeared to be “injuries” that may not be that serious and players will be active tonight. It’s frustrating that the NBA seems alright with this approach but I’ll be prepared to eat my words if these turn into legitimate injuries. With the top-eight players being out last night, we need to see who’s even available before diving into this team. Just know that if they are missing eight players again, Elijah Hughes, Jared Butler, and Eric Paschall were all massive chalk last night and they are still minimum. Your build would start with the three players.
Pacers – It’s possible that Malcolm Brogdon is back for this game and the salary would be appealing as long as Caris LeVert does not make it out of protocols for this game. He’s been out of action for nearly 20 days so Brogdon might face a minutes limit and we’ll need to monitor that. If he’s not back and the Pacers are status quo, Kiefer Sykes has been channeling his in Jordan and scored at least 18 real points in the past two games while playing 38 and 40 minutes. DraftKings has decided he doesn’t need to be priced up so he’s still way too cheap. This game has the most news that we need on the surface.
Bucks at Hornets
Bucks – I don’t think we’ll get anyone sitting out on the back-to-back since the Bucks are currently down five rotation players including Brook Lopez. Provided Jrue Holiday is still out, Giannis Antetokounmpo appears to be THE spend-up option. No other player is over $10,400 on DraftKings and without Holiday on the floor, Giannis is sitting at a 37.1% usage rate and 1.77 points per minute. There aren’t many more talented big men in the NBA and we’ve hammered the Hornets all season with big men. The Hornets are still leading in pace and 28th in defensive rating, setting the stage for Giannis to flirt with 70 DraftKings points tonight.
Hornets – I don’t think you HAVE to have a Hornets run-back, and I would at least caution against LaMelo Ball. It’s not he doesn’t have a ceiling but his minutes are so difficult to predict. There are some blowouts but even in a three-point game, he played 31 minutes. That’s not what I want to see with a $9,500 player and he needs efficiency to hit the ceiling score. That’s still a moving target with Ball, for all of his skills. If you’re going for a run-back, someone like Terry Rozier could make some sense because he can get red-hot from the field and the Bucks allow the most 3-point attempts per game. His minutes aren’t the steadiest either but he’s also almost $3,000 less than Ball, has a 23% usage rate, and 0.98 points per minute.
Teams to Consider
Heat – Jimmy Butler could be back for this contest and at $9,300, he’d deserve a look. Even with Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro active, they are still without Bam Adebayo for a while longer. Even just taking him off the floor has left Butler with a 29.6% usage rate and 1.39 fantasy points per minute, ratios you just don’t get at that salary.
Magic – They are getting healthier, but if Cole Anthony is off his minute restriction, he’s very affordable as well. The Magic are still without Jalen Suggs for sure and Franz Wagner is questionable as well. Detroit is playing at the 10th fastest pace so this is a strong spot for a player that is close to 1.20 fantasy points per minute. Once again, the Jazz holds this slate hostage but they are in the first window of games, so we should know what we need before lock.
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