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Happy last day of 2020 my NBA DFS friends – I am sure many of you are looking forward to putting this year behind us but before we can turn the page to 2021, we have two slates here to play today as we have an entire day of NBA action and Draftkings has chopped the slates into a 2 gamer and a 5 game “main slate” to end the year!
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The two-game “early slate” may as well be a showdown slate with the Wizards/Bulls game as the clear target to build around in our NBA DFS lineups. With a 235 game total between the first and third fastest-paced teams in the NBA this season, my expectation is we see this game play at the same breakneck speed that it did in their match-up just a few days ago – 108 total possessions – so more possessions equals more fantasy production!
Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are both under $10K on DraftKings and accounted for 45% of the Wizards shot attempts in the last match-up between these teams.
While you can make the argument that it would be tough for both players to have ceiling games, if you look at the rotations last game, the Wizards staggered Westbrook/Beal in the first half – subbing Westbrook out early and letting Beal run the offense and then having Westbrook be the direct sub for Beal. Two games prior against Orlando, the duo ran the same staggered rotations and I think as long as that is the case, it is viable to pay for both players in the same lineup, especially on a short slate like this.
Davis Bertans ($5.2K) saw his minutes limit increased last game, playing a season high 26 minutes and he shot the ball 10 times on his way to 31 DK points. With similar minutes or a slight uptick, he is just flat out too cheap and I think represents one of the best PP/$ plays on this early slate.
On the Bulls side of this game, we need to watch for the status of Lauri Markannen who left the last game minutes into the second half with an injury and was unable to practice with the team yesterday which could open up some Bulls value.
While Chandler Hutchinson was the direct sub for Lauri when he came out in the second half, it was really Otto Porter Jr. and Garret Temple that saw the biggest uptick and it was this duo that was on the court to close out the game in the 4th quarter. While Porter is priced up – Temple is not at just $3.3K and with double-digit FGA last game, could end up being the type of 6-7x value piece that allows you to really get the star power from this game.
On the Bulls – that star power really is all about Zach LaVine who put up 46 DK points last game and then say DraftKings drop his price to $7.9K. Yeah, lock him in and do not think twice about it.
Back court mate Coby White ($6.3K) started the season slow but has clearly found his groove the last two games with 36 and 37 minutes played and that kind of court time in a pace up spot at a mid-range price makes him an appealing building block today. Frankly you can make the same argument for Wendell Carter Jr. ($6K) who has played 31 and 34 minutes the last two games – easy mid-range exposure to this game!
On a two game slate like this, I want to simply plant a flag and this game is the clear best game environment to attack. The Wizards offense is so concentrated with Westbrook/Beal/Bertans that it becomes very easy to anchor to that core and run it back with LaVine as priority #1 on the Bulls. I lean towards pairing him with White as this duo was #1-#2 on the team in usage last year with Markannen off the court.
All this stacking means you simply get your cheap value from the Cavs/Pacers to fill pout your builds and with Kevin Love, Isaac Okoro and Kevin Porter Jr. out on the Cavs side and TJ Warren out for the Pacers – well there are a ton of pieces that become viable punts now.
Justin Holiday ($3.9K) is projected to enter the Pacers starting line-up and becomes arguably the top value play as you can see in our custom projections and a key core play as we look to jam in Westbrook/Beal and LaVine.
The Cavaliers have opted to start Dante Exum ($3.4K) today over Cedi Osman – making him an elite value play on this early slate as well.
No matter whether you chose to game stack OR you pick and choose – I think you minimally need 3 stars on DraftKings and with plays like Exum and the Holiday(s) on Indiana, it is an easy, and likely chalky build – but the right one.
When looking at the Main Slate here tonight on DraftKings, we have five games which range from 6:30 PM EST to 9 PM EST and while we have some serious star power, there is also a pretty clear lack of value which may make Stars and Scrubs a more difficult path to work in.
I think at first glance the Houston/Sacramento game will be what jumps out to everyone with the highest total on the but I think with the return of John Wall, Eric Gordon and Boogie Cousins, there is now a crowded enough rotation that I think fading this spot as chalk could end up giving us some solid leverage off the field.
Instead – the game that I love for GPP’s tonight is the first one on the slate in the Sixers/Magic as it has the fastest projected pace and the star power with plays like Joel Embiid and Nikola Vucevic that can anchor winning GPP builds.
On the Sixers side, it all starts with Embiid ($10K) as the high usage star and one of only two $10K plays on the slate (with James Harden being the other). We have seen it time and time again this year that stars dictate the slate and if I am going to fade Harden and the Rockets, then taking Embiid becomes the logical pivot at the high end.
With Ben Simmons being over-priced at $9.2K – I would rather get my secondary exposure to the Sixers with Seth Curry ($5.4K) and Tobias Harris ($7.1K) who are reasonably priced considering the 30+ minute roles they have in this lineup.
The Orlando Magic side of this game all starts with Nikola Vucevic ($8.7K) at a price that is frankly – WAY too cheap. Vuc is averaging 52 DK points per game against Embiid over their last 5 meetings you can pair him with Markelle Fultz ($6.3K) as a high correlation duo with their use of the pick and roll.
We just got news that Terrence Ross will be out and I think that could set us up for a big bounce back spot for Aaron Gordon ($6K). Gordon has had his minutes monitored the last two games, playing just 22 minutes last time out however he was cleared to play up to 28 minutes and we have seen him already push for 30 minutes this season. If AG is cleared for his normal run especially with Ross ruled out, he could crush this price point which is at a season low on DraftKings.
Going with a 3v3 game stack of Embiid/Tobias/Curry and running it back with Vuc/AG/Fultz leaves you with $3.3K per player for the last two spots in and while the value may not be obvious YET – this is NBA DFS and we know it will come – and using our Value Projections will be the easiest way to mix and match those values in our builds tonight.
Part of me wishes these slates were combined today but getting to play two different NBA slates while we wait to kick in 2021 is not the worst consolation price.
For the early slate – the strategy is simple – game stack the Bulls/Wizards and pick 1-2 value plays from the Pacers to make it all work. Keep it simple.
On the Main Slate – assuming the ownership flocks to the Rockets/Kings – I love the pivot to a Sixers/Magic game stack which provides similar star power and some mid-range pricing that leaves a ton of room for profit!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
We’re back at it with another five game slate tonight and the difference between the sites is going to be evident as we go. We’ll talk about it but not before we give Ghost another shout for the model. These projections are fire every night and it nailed the best values last night again (blowout really capped some of them from going 8x or higher). Let’s get into the teeth of this slate and figure out what directions we need to start heading in for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/31!
*Note* There’s only four games on FD tonight, not the five that are on DK. Be aware that the DK slate starts at 6:30 PM, not 7:00 like FD.
As it stands, I don’t think we need anyone from the Philly/Orlando game as a cash play. The normal suspects are all in play in Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris for the Sixers. For Orlando, Nikola Vucevic and Markelle Fultz are the only two in consideration. People play Terrence Ross, but I’m never a fan of playing a shooter with no floor in cash. Any change will be updated.
De’Aaron Fox ($7,800 DK/$7,900 FD) – This is Ghost approved and hopefully a starting point in my lineups. He’s leading the Kings in usage rate at 26.9% and FPPM at 1.11 and this is a perfect spot for him to have a big game. Not only does Houston allow the most point per game so far, it matches their dead last defensive rating. They’ve managed to accomplish that in spite of playing slow “Harden ISO Ball” the first two games and Fox won’t be under $8,000 too often. Fox will not be the last King in the article and he ranks 10th in drives per game. Houston is dead last in points in the paint so far.
Mike Conley ($6,700 DK/$6,300 FD) – The hero of last cash article I wrote, Conley just missed a triple double. Don’t expect that again but the floor is safe with around 32 minutes per night and a 25% usage rate so far. It’s early on, but Chris Paul on the other side is sporing the lowest defensive rating of his career. His price is a touch higher than I would like, but I can see myself using him with his safety and the fact there’s only five games.
George Hill ($4,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – Is the true shooting percent of 68.9% going to stick for Hill? Of course not as that would be ridiculously high but we’re not just after him for shooting. His 22.9% usage rate is behind only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the Thunder squad and the 1.27 FPPM currently leads. That will drop as the shooting does, but at about 25 minutes a night he’s still a strong value on DK. The Pels do allow the most three point attempts per game early on, which helps Hill. On FD, we can play this next player for a cheaper price and I bet that’s what the field does, making him priority.
Elf Payton ($5,900 DK/$5,200 FD) – This might sound utterly ridiculous, but Payton is a player that when everything goes right for him can threaten a triple-double in any given game. He got close-is last game and I’m not always a fan of Payton in cash, but he’s going to gain some traction. He’s played 29 and 36 minutes the past two games and he’s paid off both times. The usage rate is right with any of the Knicks for the team lead as well. Toronto plays at a top 10 pace which lends itself to Payton’s preferred script. On FD, he’s the cheapest you can go and most likely will.
James Harden ($11,000 DK/$11,500 FD) – Harden will always be in a cash article because he’s always going to have a super safe floor and high ceiling. The return of John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and others might actually help him slightly. Of course he gets the defensive attention, but at least there’s other players than G-League scrubs with him now. Harden has only had a 34.9% usage rate so far and he’s only taken a total of 37 shots through two games. If he can score 78 and 55 DK points on under 20 shots per game, that says everything you need to know.
Devin Booker ($8,600 DK/$7,500) – I’d place a pretty strong wager on Booker being chalk on FD because the price just doesn’t match his pedigree. He’s another player that hasn’t quite found the stroke yet with his shot but that won’t last long. He’s shooting about 31% from deep (35% last year) and 77% from the free throw line. Not only did he hit FT’s at a 91.9% clip last year, he found the stripe 9.6 times per game. So far this year it’s under five times. Look at last night. Paul George was $7,600 at this position and uber chalk in cash. Booker will be as well I suspect and we need to be on the explosion game.
Fred VanVleet ($7,200 DK/$7,200 FD) – If you decide to spend up on both spots on FD, consider VanVleet. He is just third on the team in usage rate so far, but the gap is only four percent between him and Pascal Siakam. FVV is another shooter scuffling early (there’s likely a bigger discussion to be had about shooters adjusting to empty arenas. The Bubble had the same two courts, so less adjustment). He’s shooting 36.4% from the floor and 32.1% from long range. That’s just not going to keep up. Having said that, Booker is the much higher priority, likely paired with a cheaper option.
Buddy Hield ($6,800 DK/$5,400 FD) – He’s too pricey for my liking on DK but on FD it’s a different story. You have to field tow shooting guards and Hield is simply too cheap on that site. His FPPM looks hideous right now with a 0.77 mark but the usage is solid at 19.2%. Hield is only shooting 38% from deep, while his career mark is closer to 41% so that’s hurting him a bit. His true shooting is down a bit too, so the price is just too low for him on FD. The Rockets are allowing over a 40% rate of three pointers and the second-highest make rate at 43.4%. Buddy might get right in a hurry tonight. Tyrese Haliburton makes for an excellent GPP pivot but you’ll have to read Ghost’s Gems for that one!
Brandon Ingram ($8,000 DK/$9,400 FD) – BI is fairly priced on DK and he’s overpriced a bit on FD, but I’m locking him on the latter site. Why? This position might be the trash can of the night. The options are HIDEOUS at first glance, and Ingram is the only one I WANT to play. That’s no even talking about I need two. I’ll figure something else out at other positions because the 30% usage rate and 1.31 FPPM is too good to pass up. On DK, I am still interested but the priority is not the same.
OG Anunoby ($5,800 DK/$6,500 FD) – I’m not in love with the pricing on either site, but he plays the trash can position on FD. We say minutes equal money and OG has played 36, 35 and 36 minutes so far. He’s also second in steals per game, which is an awesome bonus on FD. It just so happens that the Knicks are third in turnovers per game as a team and OG should have some chances to be a thief tonight. If he fits, he can be played with safety in mind. He could pilfer his way into 12-15 FD points on just that alone.
RJ Barrett ($6,900 DK/$6,200) – Hey remember when Barrett was the number three pick behind Zion and Ja Morant? Most people don’t, but Barrett has started to look like a player that resembles that pick a little more. He still needs work but the Maple Mamba (that’s his legit nickname on Basketball Reference) is logging a boatload of minutes. Barrett is up to 37 minutes a night. With a 23% usage rate, that can be enough to be considered.
Harrison Barnes ($5,400 DK/$5,900 FD) – Never really a player that I’d want to use, Barnes checks the box that he’ll play meaningful minutes and I can play him at SF. You may need to stack one more member of a team than you normally would tonight, but that can happen on a four game slate like FD has. The Kings fall into that category with the matchup against Houston. Let’s face it, Wall and Boogie Cousins won’t improve a defense, nor will Eric Gordon. Barnes quietly has the second-most minutes played on Sacramento and sits at a 0.91 FPPM. If we lack value, he’ll do.
Zion Williamson ($7,900 DK/$8,300 FD) – Let me ask you something – who on the Thunder squad can stop Zion down low? He’s seventh in paint touches and 14th in rebounding chances so far and the Thunder do not have an adequate defender down low to throw against him. Al Horford is solid, but lacks any kind of athleticism to stop him. Mike Muscala? More like Mike Muscal-outta my way if you’re Zion. On FD, going Ingram due to positional strength but on DK, give me Zion as the bull in a china shop down low.
Julius Randle ($8,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – Especially on FD, I think folks will keep riding the Randle train and who can blame them? He’s scored at least 36 FD points every time out and is playing all the minutes you could ask for. He leads the Knicks in minutes and FPPM at 1.32. No player has a higher usage rate and they will need him to help contain the next player on our list. Randle was very chalky on FD the last time out so he likely falls that way again.
Pascal Siakam ($8,300 DK/$7,400 FD) – You can make the argument to just play Randle and Spicy P and watch them battle all night long. Both of them have been strong defenders so far, with Siakam being the only one with the reputation. However, through four games Randle is sporting the best defensive rating of his career. Siakam leads the Raptors in usage at 25.2% and just misses the lead in FPPM (Kyle Lowry, but both are at 1.07 and 1.05). I don’t think Siakam is the best price on DK, but FD is appealing to be sure.
Marvin Bagley ($5,300 DK/$5,100) – I want to be clear that I’m not telling you to play ALL of these Kings, but two or three could work out just fine. Bagley average a little over six paint touches per game also far and four field goal attempts in the paint. The Rockets are 26th in paint points allowed and maybe that could improves with Boogie off the bench. I’m still not sweating it at this price point with Bagley. He’s one of the few players that I would consider at only about 25 minutes per game. Bagley could double-double here.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,800 DK/$4,900) – Bojan is absolutely FD only for a play here and it’s just because of the salary/position combo. I mentioned with Terrence Ross that I don’t like playing shooters. That is Bojan, who only has a 0.82 FPPM despite a 22% usage rate. He’s played at least 33 minutes, but the outcomes are still sketchy. He scored nine real points and barely broke 20 FD, but he’s about as cheap as you can go with a 30 FD point outcome within range.
Rudy Gobert ($7,500 DK/$7,700 FD) – We aren’t going far as Gobert is as steady as they come. He’s already second in field goal attempts inside the paint and fifth in paint touches. Phoenix has been strong about points in the paint, ranking inside the top 10 but the rebounds in the paint per game are 27th. Gobert is third in rebound chances per game so far. He just seems like a totally safe bet for 40 points on either site.
Deandre Ayton ($7,400 DK/$7,100 FD) – I’ll be very up front and say I’m almost certainly not playing Ayton in cash. He’s not playing a ton of minutes so far, 30 or fewer in all four games. He is producing a 1.14 FPPM which is a little promising but the minutes have been so low, it hasn’t translated to much above 4x. They will need his size against Gobert to be sure, but then you worry about foul trouble. I’m MUCH more likely to find the money for Gobert as I think he can get Ayton off the floor quickly. If Ayton stays out of foul trouble, he has to be there to defend Gobert. That should lead him to fall into a floor game if nothing else.
Mitchell Robinson ($5,600 DK/$5,200 FD) – Right now it’s either Gobert or spend down to Mitchell in my eyes, with not much in between. Robinson is a double-double threat and he’s played over 30 minutes the past two games. He’s payed off with at least 25 FD points. The Raptors are a little bit small up front with Marc Gasol out of town, but Robinson has talent just waiting to pop. He’s at a 0.86 FPPM, but I’ll be honest about this. Gobert looks like the safest option BY FAR on Wednesday night.
Updated after projections run and we get some news.
Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
It is HUMP DAY my NBA DFS friends and we are greeted with a perfectly sized six-game slate to play on DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. After Tuesday Night’s monster 10 gamer that was well, the usual NBA DFS nonsense, with news like Kawhi Leonard and Jamal Murray both being ruled out well after lock – hopefully, this one plays a bit more straight on.
Any time you have slates like last night where key players are ruled out after lock, it is always a frustrating reminder of what this sport can be as had we known that news prior to tip-off we would have made guys like Paul George and Nikola Jokic core plays. If you are new to NBA DFS, you need to understand the importance of late swap and that “watching the news” doesn’t just apply to the first game’s tip-off. Keeping those alerts on until all games have started is a necessary part of the NBA grind!
This article remains free through the end of 2020 as does the rest of our daily content offerings but that clock is ticking and after starting out this season hot – there is no better time to join the Win Daily Sports family. Hurry – just one more day left!
If you are looking to take your game to the next level – make sure you jump on this deal from Win Daily sports right now, for just ~$20/month, you can lock in the entire NBA season and get our ALL SPORTS package, giving you access to every week of the NFL regular and postseason. You are not going to find a better deal in the industry so sign up now and LET’S GO!
While we have a much more manageable slate here tonight, it does not mean we start off the day free of injury news that could and will change the slate once we get it (hopefully before the 7:30 PM EST lock).
When setting your lineups tonight, it is important to note that 5 of the 6 games are set to tip-off by 8:30 PM EST with the Clippers/Blazers as the lone 10 PM EST start. What that means – if we do not have Kawhi Leonard news by say 8-8:15 PM EST, you better be ready to pivot because you won’t have many options if you chose to wait for final lineup confirmation in that late-night hammer.
My gut feel – LeBron will play, Kawhi will return as they used the “mouth” injury as a reason to get in some load management and Jimmy Butler will be back after watching his team get their teeth kicked in. If that all happens – well – bye bye value!
One of the most consistent questions the experts at Win Daily Sports get each day in Discord is if we have a “core” to build around. The short answer is – yes, typically – and so today I will do my best to outline a core build strategy in this first look article and we can revisit that in my FREE Picks and Pivots live video which you can find on our YouTube channel.
Today’s core for me is going to start and end with the Brooklyn/Atlanta game that checks all the boxes we look for in NBA DFS – 1) High total at nearly 240, 2) the fastest projected pace between two teams that have been top 10 in pace both last year and so far this regular season and 3) the perfect blend of star power and value!
Let’s not bury the lead – start your builds today with the star trio in this game – Trae Young with Kyrie Irving & Kevin Durant. The pricing on these guys is laughable – both Nets studs under $9K? I can stack all three and still have $4.7K left per player. There is my core – done and done.
In all seriousness, the Nets stars are just too cheap in this type of game environment and if you are stacking them, you need to run it back with Trae with the assumption he is the reason this game stays close and we get a full game of run from our pay up stars.
You can make a very strong argument to simply stay in Brooklyn and Atlanta to find all your value as the rest of this game is seemingly all under-priced. Only one other player in this game, besides the big 3, is above $7K and that is John Collins – meaning the rest of the game can become easy mix and matches if you want to game stack it.
On the Hawks side, this is a team that could be getting back to full health as we saw Clint Capela return to the starting lineup last game, and tonight we could get Danillo Gallinari back as well. The hard part with Atlanta is, the healthier they get, the deeper the rotation is and the more it caps the value we have found in these fringe players. If Gallo is back it really limits the appeal of Bogdanovic/Hunter as this trio is going to present a really crowded wing rotation for the Hawks and may leave me only interested in the value of Cam Reddish ($4.4K) in the backcourt.
The Nets side of this game after Kyrie/KD also feels far too cheap with Caris LeVert the only play over $6K on DraftKings. With Spencer Dinwiddie out for the year, my expectation is LeVert stays in the 6th man role in games where Kyrie/KD are healthy which likely means TLC ($4K) slots into the starting lineup.
Now, I know we were on TLC last game but let’s not get it twisted – homeboy is not going to get a 25% usage rate with Kyrie and KD back on the court. Go play defense and stand in the corner and be ready if they happen to kick it to you. And if that is the route you are playing – then play Joe Harris ($5.1K) who becomes the default third option now in the starting unit and gives you far more peripheral upside.
The Nets player I am really intrigued by tonight is DeAndre Jordan ($4.6K) as a result of this match-up with both Clint Capela and John Collins on the Atlanta side. The Nets are going to have to play more traditional big man minutes with the Hawk’s ability to play big and we saw it last game against Memphis with Jonas Valanciunas that DJ basically matched his court time so they could match GIRTH WITH GIRTH.
I really just wanted to write girth in my article today.
If DJ does get anywhere close to 30 minutes again, at this price point – he could end up with an easy path to 6X once again!
Now – there is one other spot on this slate that I have a ton of interest for value and that resides in Dallas as a result of Josh Richardson being questionable.
If you have read Picks and Pivots before, you know where this is going. If you are new – well, welcome to the show.
Say it with me people – Tim Hardaway Jr.
Yeah, it may have taken me over a week into the NBA season to mention the Picks and Pivots cover boy but if Richardson is out tonight – THJ is going to shimmy his way right into my core!
If there is one thing we know with Dallas, it is that they DESPERATELY need that secondary scoring option alongside Luka Doncic and from a DFS perspective, that secondary option tends to draw strong usage and volume. With Kristaps Porzingis sidelined and if Richardson were to sit – that all flows to THJ ($5.8K).
It is a small sample size obviously but with Richardson off the court this season, Hardaway has a ….wait for it… 35% usage rate. Now, I understand it is in 25 minutes of court time but this is what we know with Dallas thus far – there are legit only 3 offensive options with Luka, Richardson, and THJ right now and they are the only three players averaging double-digit FGA.
If you take Richardson off the court – sure, Luka may shoot it 50 times but I want that cheap secondary piece every time and against the Hornets tonight, that means ALL the THJ.
One other value piece here before we go – keep an eye on our projections model today because I am fascinated to see how Trey Burke ($3.2K) pops IF Richardson is ruled out. Burke is the direct sub for Richardson and has the kind of offensive game that could get you 10X value if he is chucking. After calling my shot with TLC two nights ago and Hamidou Diallo last night – tonight, Trey Burke is my punt value LOCK of the night if Richardson is out.
After a massive slate last night, this six gamer is exactly the kind of slate I love to play in NBA DFS as it is big enough where we can get different but its not so overwhelming we have to cover every possible player option.
This slate for me starts with Brooklyn and Atlanta and that is where I will plant my flag – not only with the the star trio but I think we can mix and match the mid-range value here easily in a game stack.
Keep an eye on the news – remember we get an extra 30 minutes before lock tonight – and if you have not – come join the Win Daily team, I promise you it will be worth your time!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Happy Tuesday my NBA DFS fans – after a huge night of scores across the industry on Monday, we are back with another big slate to break down. The Win Daily crew and tools were absolutely spot on last night with our builds centered around a multi-star build (James Harden, Nikola Jokic and Caris LeVert) and the top value from our projections model all crushed (Mason Plumlee, Josh Jackson and TLC!)
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Tuesday night we have a monster 10 game slate, a huge step up from the 5-8 game slates we have gotten used to over the last few days and to be honest, these double-digit sized slates tend to be my least favorite because of the range of outcomes that exist.
Generally on slates with a player pool this large, my goal will be to narrow it down early on and try to have a condensed thought process when I start my build so that I am not casting my net too wide with every possible player combination.
The first place to start tonight is with the injury news as we have some big-time stars with injury designations.
First, Karl-Anthony Towns will be out for the next few games and that means Naz Reid ($5.1K) will continue to draw the start for Minnesota as they take on the Clippers.
If we look back at last season with KAT sidelined, Reid put up 1.1 FP/M and a 25% usage rate while averaging right around 30 DK points per start with 40 DK+ ceiling games on multiple occasions – meaning at only $5K, there is still massive profit potential on this price.
The big winner here for DFS though may be D’Angelo Russell ($7.6K) who led Minnesota last season with a 29% usage rate with KAT sidelined and put up 44 DK points per 36 minutes. At this price point tonight, that similar output has D-Russ at 5.6X already so I think much like Reid, there is substantial profit to be had on this price point.
Josh Okogie is also doubtful to play which means even more fringe value opens up and will likely push Jarret Culver ($4.5K) into the starting lineup, While we wait for all the news – my guess is by day’s end, this Minnesota value is popping across the models.
On the other side of this game, Kawhi Leonard is questionable due to a mouth laceration he suffered over the weekend and while the injury is likely not a “concern”, it is worth noting that the Clippers are on the front end of a B2B with another game Wednesday so this could be a “load management” spot the Clippers manage through and let Kawhi have another day to deal.
The Kawhi news is big for a variety of reason – first, if he sits, it pushes Paul George ($8.5K) and Lou Williams ($5.1K) into elite play status as with Kawhi sidelined last season, George (40% usage rate and 1.5 FP.M) and LouWill (35% and 1.3 FP/M) were both high ceiling plays. It would also take an elite defender off the court for LAC which would make this game stack much more palatable running it back with the undermanned TWolves.
Much like I mentioned with Culver on the Minnesota side, Nicolas Batum ($4.5K) could be a solid mid-range value in this game stack if Kawhi is out. We saw it two games ago against Denver where Batum played 36 minutes and racked up a 37 DK point double-double. Sometimes – locking in those 30-minute roles and taking the “easy path” to value makes all the difference.
If Kawhi ends up playing, this game could end up being one we cross off entirely but if he is out, it could be a building block – welcome to NBA DFS life.
Lastly, the Miami Heat will likely be without Jimmy Butler tonight as they take on the Milwaukee Bucks. Like the other spots mentioned, any time you take a high usage star off the court, it presents significant value for the remaining players and the Heat, by and large, are priced very fairly considering with only Bam Adebayo ($8K) above $6K on DK.
Bam may seem like the big winner last year with Butler off the court, putting up 1.3 FP/M but he did so at only a 22% usage rate which was just a marginal increase on his metrics with Butler on the court. Rather than pay the premium for BAM, it may be better served to mix and match the $5K guards like Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro who put up 40 and 34 DK points per 36 last year with General Soreness sidelined.
If there is one message I have tried to hammer home early this NBA DFS season – it is that we need to anchor to stars and use the under-priced value in early season mis-pricing to make it all work – tonight is no differet.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10.8K) has yet to have a true ceiling game, being held under 60 DK points in each of his first three games but tonight, I think we could see him reach his ceiling. Without Jimmy Butler on the floor, the Heat defense takes a significant hit – and we only need to look back to last season to see what a Butler-less Heat team could mean for Giannis.
In their first meeting last season, Miami was without Butler and Giannis proceeded to drop a 29 point, 17 rebounds, 9 assist gem on his way to 73 DK points. Now compare that to the next game they played where Butler was on the floor and held Giannis to 40 DK points on 30% shooting. No Butler means all the Giannis!
With Miami being short-handed – Goran Dragic ($5.9K) and Tyler Herro ($5.8K) are my preferred mid-range run backs but I can make the case easily for Bam Adebayo ($8K) as well after seeing what Julius Randle just did to this Bucks interior (29/14/7 on his way to 61 DK points).
This game stack is also a great GPP target in my opinion because of the tight rotations and mid-range pricing. You can basically get all the usage and fantasy production on Milwaukee from two guys in Giannis and Khris Middleton ($7.7K) who have 35% and 26% usage rates respectively while both putting up 50+ DK points per 36 minutes.
Now go ahead and run it back with the Heat core of Bam, Dragic and Herro and you still have $4K per player for the last few spots in. Love this spot for game stacks!
The next part of my core, as mentioned above is really TBD as we wait on Kawhi news. If Kawhi is OUT – I want PG13/Lou Williams and you can run it back with D-Russ/Naz. If Kawhi is IN – this game is likely a cross off.
Lastly – we have to watch the value and this is where our projections model is key as it has been LIGHTS OUT, projecting the top PP/$ plays like TLC and PlumDogg last night.
This slate is largely a wait and see as the Kawhi Leonard news really will dictate how I build. At first glance, though this slate is going to be one where the “absence” of stars will drive massive value to their teammates and I think that is where you need to start your builds today in places like Miami, Minnesota, and potentially LAC.
The next piece is going to be digging through the value – finding the punts that make the pay up for Giannis an easy lock and load – this is where our Discord can help you really think through the news as it breaks and it is where I will be all day long!
Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
We have a five game slate at hand tonight and it’s really interesting. We have the Nets on a back to back and possibly (probably) without Kevin Durant and Spencer Dinwiddie. Additionally, we have the Fighting Houston Hardens with Christian Wood in tow. Oh, that hasn’t even mentioned the Lakers yet. There’s a LOT of high-priced studs in great spots, so we’ll need to choose wisely tonight. Let’s break it all down and get onto the right plays in NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/28 to get into the green once again!
Kyrie Irving ($9,000 DK/$9,400 FD) – If the Nets are without a resting Durant, Irving is going to be hard to not want to play. These two really haven’t played without the other on the floor yet, but KD has a usage rate right about 30%. Kyrie is going to absorb a good bit of that, likely close to 40%. Memphis is playing at a top-five pace and are 26th in defensive rating so far.
*Update* Kyrie is OUT tonight
Ja Morant ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD) – I said at the time of the draft that the Pelicans had to take Zion, but the Grizzlies got one of the best consolation prizes in a while. Morant has been excellent out of the gate, boasting a 35% usage rate, 1.63 FPPM and averaging over 30 real points. He’s underpriced on both sites and I’m comfortable with him in cash though I may have to reserve him for GPP only based on who else we have to fit.
Mike Conley ($6,300 DK/$6,300 FD) – Nobody really wakes up in the morning and gets excited to play Conley. However, point guard isn’t exactly overflowing with a ton of options. Conley is going to see 32-34 minutes on a nightly basis with a 25.1% usage rate so far. here’s always something to be said for safe and uninspiring options in cash.
George Hill ($4,500 DK/$5,400 FD) – I’m slightly leery on this one but he’s cheap enough to not get too worked up. Hill played just 24 minutes and shot 8-9, including 4-4 from deep. He’s not scoring 21 real points super often but the 19.9% usage rate was second among starters. That’s enough at this price range.
*Update* – Delon Wright is high up in the model.
James Harden ($11,200 DK/$11,500 FD) – All Fat Harden did in the first game was produce a 34.3% usage rate, 1.82 FPPM and 44 real points. Yes, OT goosed the final production but this is still Harden with almost nobody else. Harden is still the most important play in cash with a bullet point. Denver has also allowed 55 points per game in the paint (most in the NBA) and a 42% from three (sixth-worst). That could be a lethal combo for Harden.
Dennis Schroeder ($6,100 DK/$6,000 FD) – Anthony Davis missed yesterday and I could envision one of AD or LeBron sitting tonight. Either way, Schroeder isn’t a terrible play. He could be a touch overpriced with Bron and AD both in, but he’s getting 25-28 minutes a night and can score in bunches. He’s third on the team in usage rate at 26.5% to boot.
Lugentz Dort ($4,300 DK/$4,700 FD) – Dort is cheap enough to consider on both sites as he played 34 minutes for the rebuilding Thunder squad. The usage rate was actually higher than I thought at 16.4% in the first contest, but the 0.83 FPPM can pay off this low salary. We need some value somewhere. Look at it this way – if you pair Dort and Harden, you can hopefully snag 90-100 fantasy points for about $15,000.
Dillon Brooks ($5,500 DK/$3,700 FD) – I might be more likely to side with Dort on DK but Brooks is a glaring value on FD. He’s barely above minimum and has played 30 and 33 minutes. At least early, the 26.5% usage and 0.98 FPPM is eye-opening too. He’s generally a player that needs to shoot at least average to hit value, but on FD I just don’t know how you pass him up in a game like this at barely minimum.
Caris LeVert ($6,600 DK/$6,300 FD) – If Durant and Dinwiddie are out, LeVert is the next candidate to join the starting lineup and be Kyrie’s tag team partner. LeVert proved in the bubble he’s capable of being a force in the NBA and all the usage and FPPM that KD soaks up is up for grabs. If Durant plays, consider him much more of a GPP play but it behooves the Nets to be smart with KD.
*Update* With Kyrie out, LeVert is going back to Bubble LeVert and is an absolute LOCK TONIGHT
Jerami Grant ($5,900 DK/$5,700 FD) – He’s not likely to hit 50 DK like last game (it would be sweet) but Grant is still a valuable piece tonight. Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose have been ruled out already for Detroit. Grant is already sitting at an 18.4% usage rate and a 0.97 FPPM while being under $6,000 on both sites. The game log watchers will be on him as well. He’s played 31 and 43 minutes, which would have been 33 without OT. Grant should be around 34 minutes tonight and he’s a double-double threat, especially in a high-paced game.
Kyle Anderson ($5,100 DK/$4,600 FD) – I think this would be an FD-only play since you need two. Slo-Mo has played 29 and 36 minutes and he can fill the stat sheet a little bit. He’s recorded 10 and 14 rebounds and plays hard, and when you catch him on a night where he scores he’s got a little bit of upside. Just like Conley, this is boring but minutes equal money.
Joe Harris ($4,300 DK/$4,300 FD) – Only if the Nets are down multiple pieces, and I do prefer LeVert and Grant on FD.
Jae’Sean Tate ($4,100 DK/$4,200 FD) – We’re a week into NBA and I’m writing up someone I didn’t know existed before Saturday. Tate (who is only PF on DK) was the darling of the model in the first game for the Rockets and he paid off in spades. Tate played 37 minutes and put up 13 real points. The Rockets like his hard-nosed style and I would think he earned himself some minutes while the Rockets are so short-handed. Tate played the fifth-most minutes behind Harden, Christian Wood, P.J. Tucker and Danuel House.
*Update* Josh Jackson is a model darling tonight and is the best of cheap SF options. He will be in all my cash games.
Christian Wood ($7,200 DK/$8,100 FD) – Speaking of Wood, he has to be in the cash conversation tonight. He’s just a C on DK and a little cheaper, but he flashed the appeal and ceiling to his game Saturday. He hardly left the court and produced a 1.23 FPPM en route to a 31/13 50 burger on DK. As much as I love Nikola Jokic, nobody has accused him of being a staunch defender. Wood had 15 paint touches Saturday, which would lead the league on a per game basis if it held up. It will until the Rockets are full-strength. With the Nuggets getting abused in the paint early, Wood remains an elite target.
Darius Bazley ($5,700 DK/$5,800 FD) – The Thunder continue to be a team that brings some sort of value and Bazley fits the bill. He played 33 minutes and had some defensive stats in a steal and two blocks to go along with a 15-10 double-double. The scoring is questionable, but the rest of the package isn’t as much.
Lakers Value – Keep an eye on Kyle Kuzma and/or Markieff Morris if AD or LeBron happens to be out.
Bojan Bogdanovic – FD play only because you have to have two players. This is an ugly position as of Sunday night.
Nikola Jokic ($9,800 DK/$10,000 FD) – I’m not going to be able to play him in cash in all likelihood just due to who I need ahead of him. However, there’s no reason to not play him in cash. He’s one rebound short of consecutive triple-doubles to star the year. The Rockets are did bring in Wood, but he’s not going to stop Joker. He has a 1.54 FPPM on the season so far.
Rudy Gobert ($7,400 DK/$7,700 FD) – There’s really not a big man on the Thunder that’s going to pose much of a challenge. Yes, Al Horford used to be an elite defender but Gobert has a couple inches on him. He’s not what he used to be and Gobert plays about 30 minutes every night. He’s a Barbara Walters threat every night and has grabbed 17 boards in each game so far.
Mason Plumlee ($5,700 DK/$6,000 FD) – He had a little trouble with fouls last game but he’s kind of like a “Joker Jr.” early on. I’m certainly not comparing his skill level to Jokic, but Plumlee can pass the ball and make a play here and there. He’s assisted on at least five buckets in each of the first two games and is a solid rebounder. If Clint Capela plays, that does present a tougher challenge but the price is still solid for Plum and his 1.00 FPPM.
P.J. Tucker ($4,800 DK/$4,300 FD) – He’s one player that puts the phrase “minutes equal money” to the test, as Tucker can do nothing for loooooong stretches. Still, he’s really cheap and the Rockets will need him on the floor as much as he can handle tonight. Tucker played 42 minutes the first game and playing under 40 would be an upset in my eyes. He appears to be the lowest we can go for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/28.
James Harden, Christian Wood, Caris LeVert, Taurean Prince
Ja Morant will be my other stud of choice in cash game settings tonight.
Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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