NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Thursday, December 31

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Happy last day of 2020 my NBA DFS friends – I am sure many of you are looking forward to putting this year behind us but before we can turn the page to 2021, we have two slates here to play today as we have an entire day of NBA action and Draftkings has chopped the slates into a 2 gamer and a 5 game “main slate” to end the year!

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Early Slate

The two-game “early slate” may as well be a showdown slate with the Wizards/Bulls game as the clear target to build around in our NBA DFS lineups. With a 235 game total between the first and third fastest-paced teams in the NBA this season, my expectation is we see this game play at the same breakneck speed that it did in their match-up just a few days ago – 108 total possessions – so more possessions equals more fantasy production!

Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are both under $10K on DraftKings and accounted for 45% of the Wizards shot attempts in the last match-up between these teams.

While you can make the argument that it would be tough for both players to have ceiling games, if you look at the rotations last game, the Wizards staggered Westbrook/Beal in the first half – subbing Westbrook out early and letting Beal run the offense and then having Westbrook be the direct sub for Beal. Two games prior against Orlando, the duo ran the same staggered rotations and I think as long as that is the case, it is viable to pay for both players in the same lineup, especially on a short slate like this.

Davis Bertans ($5.2K) saw his minutes limit increased last game, playing a season high 26 minutes and he shot the ball 10 times on his way to 31 DK points. With similar minutes or a slight uptick, he is just flat out too cheap and I think represents one of the best PP/$ plays on this early slate.

On the Bulls side of this game, we need to watch for the status of Lauri Markannen who left the last game minutes into the second half with an injury and was unable to practice with the team yesterday which could open up some Bulls value.

While Chandler Hutchinson was the direct sub for Lauri when he came out in the second half, it was really Otto Porter Jr. and Garret Temple that saw the biggest uptick and it was this duo that was on the court to close out the game in the 4th quarter. While Porter is priced up – Temple is not at just $3.3K and with double-digit FGA last game, could end up being the type of 6-7x value piece that allows you to really get the star power from this game.

On the Bulls – that star power really is all about Zach LaVine who put up 46 DK points last game and then say DraftKings drop his price to $7.9K. Yeah, lock him in and do not think twice about it.

Back court mate Coby White ($6.3K) started the season slow but has clearly found his groove the last two games with 36 and 37 minutes played and that kind of court time in a pace up spot at a mid-range price makes him an appealing building block today. Frankly you can make the same argument for Wendell Carter Jr. ($6K) who has played 31 and 34 minutes the last two games – easy mid-range exposure to this game!

On a two game slate like this, I want to simply plant a flag and this game is the clear best game environment to attack. The Wizards offense is so concentrated with Westbrook/Beal/Bertans that it becomes very easy to anchor to that core and run it back with LaVine as priority #1 on the Bulls. I lean towards pairing him with White as this duo was #1-#2 on the team in usage last year with Markannen off the court.

All this stacking means you simply get your cheap value from the Cavs/Pacers to fill pout your builds and with Kevin Love, Isaac Okoro and Kevin Porter Jr. out on the Cavs side and TJ Warren out for the Pacers – well there are a ton of pieces that become viable punts now.

Justin Holiday ($3.9K) is projected to enter the Pacers starting line-up and becomes arguably the top value play as you can see in our custom projections and a key core play as we look to jam in Westbrook/Beal and LaVine.

The Cavaliers have opted to start Dante Exum ($3.4K) today over Cedi Osman – making him an elite value play on this early slate as well.

No matter whether you chose to game stack OR you pick and choose – I think you minimally need 3 stars on DraftKings and with plays like Exum and the Holiday(s) on Indiana, it is an easy, and likely chalky build – but the right one.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Main Slate Breakdown

When looking at the Main Slate here tonight on DraftKings, we have five games which range from 6:30 PM EST to 9 PM EST and while we have some serious star power, there is also a pretty clear lack of value which may make Stars and Scrubs a more difficult path to work in.

I think at first glance the Houston/Sacramento game will be what jumps out to everyone with the highest total on the but I think with the return of John Wall, Eric Gordon and Boogie Cousins, there is now a crowded enough rotation that I think fading this spot as chalk could end up giving us some solid leverage off the field.

Instead – the game that I love for GPP’s tonight is the first one on the slate in the Sixers/Magic as it has the fastest projected pace and the star power with plays like Joel Embiid and Nikola Vucevic that can anchor winning GPP builds.

On the Sixers side, it all starts with Embiid ($10K) as the high usage star and one of only two $10K plays on the slate (with James Harden being the other). We have seen it time and time again this year that stars dictate the slate and if I am going to fade Harden and the Rockets, then taking Embiid becomes the logical pivot at the high end.

With Ben Simmons being over-priced at $9.2K – I would rather get my secondary exposure to the Sixers with Seth Curry ($5.4K) and Tobias Harris ($7.1K) who are reasonably priced considering the 30+ minute roles they have in this lineup.

The Orlando Magic side of this game all starts with Nikola Vucevic ($8.7K) at a price that is frankly – WAY too cheap. Vuc is averaging 52 DK points per game against Embiid over their last 5 meetings you can pair him with Markelle Fultz ($6.3K) as a high correlation duo with their use of the pick and roll.

We just got news that Terrence Ross will be out and I think that could set us up for a big bounce back spot for Aaron Gordon ($6K). Gordon has had his minutes monitored the last two games, playing just 22 minutes last time out however he was cleared to play up to 28 minutes and we have seen him already push for 30 minutes this season. If AG is cleared for his normal run especially with Ross ruled out, he could crush this price point which is at a season low on DraftKings.

Going with a 3v3 game stack of Embiid/Tobias/Curry and running it back with Vuc/AG/Fultz leaves you with $3.3K per player for the last two spots in and while the value may not be obvious YET – this is NBA DFS and we know it will come – and using our Value Projections will be the easiest way to mix and match those values in our builds tonight.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Part of me wishes these slates were combined today but getting to play two different NBA slates while we wait to kick in 2021 is not the worst consolation price.

For the early slate – the strategy is simple – game stack the Bulls/Wizards and pick 1-2 value plays from the Pacers to make it all work. Keep it simple.

On the Main Slate – assuming the ownership flocks to the Rockets/Kings – I love the pivot to a Sixers/Magic game stack which provides similar star power and some mid-range pricing that leaves a ton of room for profit!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA season with some big wins!

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