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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27

There were not a ton of misses in the article yesterday and that’s what we love to see. Tonight we’re already down a stud player in Russell Westbrook and we have multiple teams on back to back situations. Even in this early stage of the season, that needs to be monitored through the day. Please make sure you’re in the Discord to get all pertinent updates for what you need to know for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Kyrie Irving ($9,100 DK/$9,400 FD) – Kyrie has been absolutely cooking early on with a 27.4% usage rate and a 1.59 FPPM. The blowout concern is real, as the Hornets are on a B2B but I still feel like Kyrie is underpriced. Also, the spread is currently only eight points so I don’t make decisions until the spread gets to about 12 points. The Nets are playing at a top 10 pace early on and that’s not going anywhere.

Steph Curry ($9,300 DK/$8,300 FD) – Steph is the better value on FD but I’m still comfortable playing him in cash on both sites. Yes, they’ve gotten smoked the first two games but tonight they play the Bulls. I don’t think they can lose by the third quarter here and Curry is not going to shoot 20% from deep for much longer.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,100 DK/$8,400 FD) – Rinse and repeat. Fox gets the Suns again on a back to back and his price dropped. There’s no reason to not feel comfortable going back to the well.

Markelle Fultz ($6,000 DK/$5,900) – Another home and home spot and Fultz has started off the season hot. He scored 21 points last night and has average 18/4.5/5.5 in the first two. In this spot against a poor defensive team, sign me up again.

Darius Garland ($5,900 DK/$6,200 FD) – Garland is over a 20% usage rate to start the season and he’s played at least 32 minutes in each game. Cleveland will ask their young backcourt of Garland and Collin Sexton to do a lot this year, even on B2B.

Ish Smith ($5,700 DK/$3,900 FD) – He’s almost minimum on FD and you need two point guards. Do the math. He should start for Westbrook tonight (and if he doesn’t I’m not that excited for him) and has played 22 minutes in each game so far. If he gets closer to 30, he’s a free square on FD and still a strong play on DK.

*Update* The Model is loving Raul Neto, so keep an eye out for who’s starting.

Jeff Teague ($4,400 DK/$5,200 FD) – Teague burned everyone on Christmas Day, but he’s still going to play 20+ minutes and has the third-highest usage behind Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. That’s enough for me and he’s a better play on DK than he is on FD.

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($8,900 DK/$8,500 FD) – The FD pricing is disrespectful and it seems crazy to me that DK knew Russ was sitting tonight and still lowered Beal’s price. Still, he’s one of my highest priorities for the night with no Westbrook. This comes with a giant grain of salt due to a 12 minute sample size, but Beal has a 41% usage rate with Westy off the court early. He’s my starting point in NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27.

Devin Booker ($9,500 DK/$7,500 FD) – I can almost promise I won’t have Booker on DK, but give me a break with this FD price. It’s not even a question for a player of Booker’s caliber. He should never be under $8,000.

Zach LaVine ($7,900 DK/$7,000 FD) – It hasn’t been the smoothest start for LaVine as the fantasy production hasn’t been there. However, there’s two factors to note. One, he hasn’t played over 28 minutes yet. Two, the usage rate is a ridiculous 38.3%. He’s too cheap on both sites and it’s a matter of time before he’s heading towards 50 fantasy points.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,800 DK/$5,600 FD) – You need to have short memories when a player flops due to shooting. That was the case with Bledsoe on Christmas Day. He’s still third on the team in usage rate at about 20% and he’s played 33 and 34 minutes so far.

Seth Curry ($5,100 DK/$4,500 FD) – He’s a guy that can get ho behind the arc but has played an average of 30 minutes in the first two games. He’s too cheap for his role, and 0.71 FPPM is enough for this amount of court time and salary.

Small Forward

*Update* LeBron is a bigger priority now that Anthony Davis has been ruled out.

Kevin Durant ($9,400 DK/$9,500 FD) – KD is only PF eligible on DK but either way, he’s a valuable player. Already playing 33 minutes and looking as smooth as ever, Durant and Kyrie are forming a very formidable duo. He actually has a 2% lead in usage over Kyrie.

Brandon Ingram($8,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – One of the bright young stars in the game, Ingram has racked up a usage rate over 29% so far and has a 1.31 FPPM. He’s played 37 minutes in each contest and that combo can’t be overlooked in this pricing tier.

Jaylen Brown ($7,100 DK/$8,000 FD) – Brown and Tatum have been running the Cletics early and they have identical 33% usage rates. Brown has a slight edge in FPPM at 1.35 so far and has poured in at least 27 real points in both games. The Pacers played last night and may have slightly tired legs.

Tobias Harris ($6,600 DK/$6,400 FD) – There’s nothing wrong with looking at some Sixers as the Cavs played a double overtime game last night. Harris or Curry gets a cheaper path than Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid and Harris has a 20.7% usage rate so far. He can be a little scoring reliant, but the salary is low enough to still consider.

Keldon Johnson ($5,500 DK/$5,100) – Let’s just say I’m happy I only have to field one on DK. It’s not my favorite position ad maybe we’ll get a value to pop up. Johnson has played 32 and 28 minutes so far and I could see the Spurs using their vets a couple minutes fewer tonight. Johnson has accumulated almost a 20% usage rate so far and just over a 1.00 FPPM.

*Update* Cedi Osman – Kevin Porter and Isaac Okoro are both out tonight, vaulting Cedi into a bigger role.

*Update* Marcus Morris – He’s popping in the model and that’s all I need.

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500 DK/$11,500) – Greek is the first and only Buck I’ll play in cash because if this game blow out (spread is 12.5 right now), I don’t think that happens without Giannis getting his. He still has nearly a 38% usage rat even with his new teammates in tow. He’s very underpriced on DK.

Jayson Tatum ($8,800 DK/$9,800 FD) – I don’t think Tatum will be under $9,000 too often on DK and that’s all we need. We talked about the same usage as Brown at 33% and he’s going to play around 35 minutes every single night.

Zion Williamson ($8,200 DK/$7,900 FD) – He exploded on Christmas and it was a good reminder of what exactly he can do. The 27.9% usage rate and 1.27 FPPM is awesome to start he season. Even better, he played 38 minutes. If we don’t have to sweat minutes and “bursts” with Zion this year, I’m going to love him a lot of nights.

Lauri Markkanen ($6,500 DK/$6,400 FD) – We don’t exactly love the usage rate at 17.8% but the 1.35 FPPM is sweet. Markkanen has played 27 and 30 minutes, and who’s going to guard him on the Warriors if Draymond Green remains out? If Dray is in, we don’t need to go here but I’ll take Markkanen against the like of Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre all day.

Nemanja Bjeica ($4,800 DK/$3,900 FD) – I have a strong suspicion that Marvin Bagley will sit tomorrow. The Kings will be cautious with their oft-injured big man so far. Bjecia should draw a spot start in that scenario. Make sure you check the Discord for info on this play. It’s contingent on other factors.

Center

Joel Embiid ($9,800 DK/$9,900 FD) – He’s going to have the narrative going for him. He and Andre Drummond DO NOT like each other and have traded barbs on social media multiple times. Biid has had some monster games against Drum and some average ones.

He’s probably a little more GPP than cash, but I wanted to give him a note with the narrative working for him.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,300 DK/$8,200 FD) – Just far too cheap on each site. His price on DK is crazy as it dropped $800. All Vuc did last night was drop a 50 burger on DK and he could well do it again tonight.

Montrezl Harrell ($6,100 DK/$6,200 FD) – You may be surprised to see this is the first Laker in the article against the Wolves. Here’s the thing – neither LeBron nor Anthony Davis have been over 31 minutes so far. I don’t think that’s by accident with not even 75 days off. I am really loathe to pay top dollar for those guys when the minutes are lower. Enter Trez, who gets a great matchup and plays about 30 per night right now.

Bismack Biyombo *Update* I have serious concerns if he can keep up in this game. I don’t think I’m going there but it’s hard to kill your lineup at $3,800 if you play about 25 minutes.

Hassan Whiteside *Update* – It seems the model really likes Whiteside and perhaps he’s the answer if in fact Marvin Bagley is sitting (not official as of this writing)

*Note* As of Saturday night, there’s not a center that I love for cheap. We’ll update as we see fit but this may well be a position to spend a little bit on. Really, all cheap value hasn’t shown up yet but it will because it always does in NBA. Look for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27 to be updated as we can tomorrow.

Core Four (Always stay plugged into Discord)

Bradley Beal, LeBron James, Montrezl Harrell, Raul Neto

I’m perfectly fine playing 3 Lakers tonight out of LeBron, Schroeder, Rez and Morris. Neto should be able to pay off a meager price tag without much issue and I’ve loved Beal since last night. Stay tuned for changing factors the next couple of hours!

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/25

The NBA tradition continues as we have a great five game slate on Christmas Day, thankfully without the Knicks for once! It is LOADED with star power as the NBA are no fools when they create the schedule. Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic…the list goes on and on. We’re going to go through each position and figure out who we’re locking into our cash games in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/25!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher (Luka on Wednesday night) and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it.
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Luka Doncic ($10,700 DK/$11,300 FD) – Luka is the perfect fit for the floor that I talked about. He shot poorly from the floor to start in the first game of the season. At one point, he was 2-9 and finished just 11-26. Still, he scored right about 50 DK points and still rocked a 40.7% usage rate. He might be a hair tougher to fit since we’re lacking a ton of value, but there’s no doubt of the extremely high floor Luka has without Kristaps Porzingis in the lineup.

Kyrie Irving ($8,900 DK/$8,900 FD) – Whew, did Kyrie look phenomenal in game one. It’s not just the hot shooting, he looked like he was engaged and at full strength. We get the narrative of heading back to Boston and there’s no fans to heckle him, which honestly helps in my eyes. Irving has a 24.7% usage rate and a 1.52 FPPM in the first game, which will more than pay the bills in this spot. I lean Kyrie>Luka just because of the price difference. Kyrie getting you 45-50 will be more valuable than 65-70 from Luka with the $2,000 spread out across the lineup.

Jrue Holiday ($7,500 DK/$7,000 FD) – The Milwaukee Bucks have sacrificed depth for star power and the first game might show a pattern. All of Holiday, Giannis and Khris Middleton played at least 36 minutes and Holiday played 38. Minutes equals production when we’re talking players of Holiday’s caliber. The blowout concern is real, but if the Bucks are up big Holiday will help them get there. He had a 22.8% usage rate in the first game and that’s plenty with so many minutes.

Jeff Teague ($4,200 DK/$5,800 FD) – The biggest lock on the slate for DK is none other than Teauge since he has an actual role. In playing 25 minutes off the bench, Teague went nuts for 19 points and kicked in three boards and four dimes. For those of you new to NBA, being the leader off the bench is a lot of times better than being the fifth starter. Teague had a 27.1% usage rate, second to only Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in game one. He gets a pace up spot and should shine once again. If he doesn’t he’s likely to be the highest-owned player in cash so it won’t kill you.

Honorable Mention – Steph Curry – He’s much easier to fit on FD and I do worry he doesn’t see enough minutes to pay off the DK price. However, the Bucks have yielded three-point attempts at the highest rate in the league going back to last year. They gave up 40 in the first game. If they let Steph shoot, we know what will eventually happen.

Shooting Guard

Paul George ($8,700 DK/$7,600 FD) – I greatly prefer PG13 on FD, where I have to have two shooting guards. George went bonkers for 33 points on Wednesday with a 28% usage rate. It’s not the best game to target overall, but he wouldn’t kill you on FD even if his real points go back to around 24.

Khris Middleton ($7,400 DK/$7,400 FD) – This is pretty much a copy and paste from Holiday. Middleton will be tasked with big minutes if the game stays close and he should be asked to elevate his game. If the Bucks continue to log big minutes, even players not named Giannis have a higher floor than in year’s past. His 1.56 FPPM was almost identical to Greek for at least one night, though he was red-hot from the floor.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,600 DK/$5,600 FD) – This is a play that I like better on DK since he’s the bigger bargain. Bledsoe can be a little frustrating at some points, but he looked right at home with the Pelicans in his debut. He played 34 minutes, scored 18 points and tacked on six assists. His FPPM wasn’t crazy high at 0.97 but the 21.7% usage rate would be fine in big minutes. He’s sharing the floor with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, and should be able to get some easier dimes on a nightly basis.

Dennis Schroder ($6,300 DK/$5,000) – Schroder had a ceiling game which has him a hair expensive on DK but an absolute lock on FD. His price didn’t move on that site, for whatever reason. Both LeBron and Anthony Davis scuffled Wednesday, and Schroeder picked up the slack and flirted with a triple-double. That’s not going to happen often but he’s the starting point guard with Bron and AD. He’s going to fall into production and be a scoring threat with or without them on the floor.

Donte DiVincenzo ($4,700 DK/$4,500 FD) – He played 28 minutes and is cheap, and should be carrying a little more of the load with the depth pillaged away for Milwaukee. The good news is if the game gets out of hand, it think he stays on the court longer than the big three. I’m not totally in love with him for cash, but if he’s the last man in I would get behind it if you love everything else.

*Note* Tyler Herro is only PG/SG on DK, and we’ll get to him in the SF portion since that’s how he’s listed on FD.

Small Forward

LeBron James ($10,000 DK/$11,000 FD) – It’s LeBron coming off an average game on Christmas Day against a team that is not great defensively. You don’t think he hears Luka is an MVP favorite in the preseason? LeBron will be looking to prove a point. Likely a little easier to fit on FD and a bit more needed with two SF to fill.

Jaylen Brown ($7,000 DK/$7,500 FD) – I’ll never tell you that you’re wrong if you go with Kawhi Leonard at this spot. However, Brown is $2,000 cheaper, in a pace up spot and is the sidekick to Tatum in Boston with Gordon Hayward in Charolette. Brown poured in 33 points in game one and had a 29.3% usage rate. Giddy up.

Brandon Ingram ($8,300 DK/$7,300 FD) – He’s easier to fit on FD but you can’t go wrong in either. Sure, you probably don’t get the near triple-double again but Ingram continues to improve by leaps and bounds. I think he’s still going to be the usage rate leader at the end of the year and the first game was 28.1%. If Jimmy Butler happens to sit, this matchup gets even juicier.

Caris LeVert – ($7,200 DK/$5,800 FD) – LeVert is a huge pricing difference and that means I probably can’t get there on DK. On FD however, he’s near a lock to my eyes. He ran off the bench all by himself with Kyrie or KD, which is a huge piece of information. I think they leave him alone on the second unit. For one, it helps the Nets as a team. They can rest both Kyrie and KD at the same time without sacrificing offensive capability. It also still elevates LeVert’s trade value if the Nets goes for a third star (not to diss LeVert). Either way, the 34.9% usage rate for LeVert is massively underpriced on FD.

Joe Harris ($5,300 DK/$4,300 FD) – This is about as low as I can go at the position and Harris did a little bit of everything. He chipped in 10 points, had seven rebounds and two assists. Ghost hit home on the point that with Kyrie and KD garnering all the defensive attention, Harris flies under the radar and is a sharpshooter. I don’t think you run both on Harris and LeVert, but you can use either or.

Tyler Herro ($5,600/$5,000 FD) – Herro is only a cash play if Butler is out. Fortunately, that’s the first game of the day and we’ll know what we need before the slate even gets going.

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 DK/$11,600 FD) – I’m more likely to get my Bucks exposure from other pieces, but there’s not really a safer bet to hit 50 fantasy points on any given slate than Greek.

Jayson Tatum ($9,300 DK/$9,800 FD) – He’s my favorite stud on the slate. The 40.4% usage rate is tantalizing to say the least, as is a 1.52 FPPM. That’s Luka-level usage and even if it drops a little bit, Tatum is underpriced. He’s in a run and gun spot and probably the most attractive game on the entire slate.

Kevin Durant ($9,800 DK/$8,500 FD) – Still massively underpriced on FD, Durant looked like he had never dealt with an injury in his life on Tuesday. He flirted with a 30% usage rate and scored a 1.64 FPPM. He’s just a smash play on FD and I’m not going to complain if you play him on DK.

Anthony Davis ($10,300 DK/$10,600 FD) – He deserves to be motioned, and you can play him for sure. However, just look at the PF position. We’re in love with KD and Tatum is my favorite. I can only play two, so AD won’t make the cut for me. I don’t think he plays that poorly again and who on the Dallas side could actually stop him?

Paul Millsap ($4,900 DK/$4,900 FD) – This is really DK-only but since we need value and don’t have a lot, we’ll take the minutes where we can. Even without the OT factored in, Millsap played over 30 minutes. When a player is under $5,000 we need to at least consider him.

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,100 DK/$9,700 FD) – Is there a better center than the Joker in the league? I don’t really think so when he’s engaged and he had a triple-double in the first game of the season. Denver rolls as Joker rolls, and he’s such an incredibly unique talent. The matchup is tougher than Wednesday with Serge Ibaka but it’s not enough to worry about. The 29.1% usage rate is what we chase and he’s a triple-double threat every time on the court.

Montrezl Harrell ($6,000 DK/$51,00 FD) – I don’t think he has the same type of game as he did the first night, but he’s coming in chalky. That’s fine for cash, even if we don’t think he replicates the results. I’m with Ghost that if AD is rolling, Trez likely won’t be doing a ton. I will say if the Lakers go 10 deep into the rotation, maybe that helps Trez a bit. He’s chalky and in cash that can be all that matters.

Ivaca Zubac ($5,300 DK/$4,700 FD) – Zubac played 26 minutes and scored 11/6/1. Nobody has ever accused Joker of being a lockdown defender and they really don’t have a true backup center in the traditional sense. Win Daily Poster Boy Mason Plumlee is in Detroit now. Zubac on the second unit approaching 30 minutes is more than enough to pay off.

Core Four (ALWAYS subject to change in Discord)

Jayson Tatum/Jeff Teague/Eric Bledsoe/Kyrie Irving

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!