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NASCAR DFS

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series from COTA 3/26

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for Circuit of the Americas (aka COTA)! This track is a 3.4-mile road track that produces some exciting racing. COTA is a 20-turn track with a large 133-foot hill in turn one. Last season in this race four of the drivers starting inside the top 5 finished there. Only six drivers finished off the lead lap and only two failed to finish the race altogether.

Roster Construction

COTA, as it at all road courses, is not a place to go hunting for dominator points. At this race on Saturday, there are only 41 laps so that means there are only 28.7 dominator points available. When building lineups for road courses you generally look to finishing position and place differential plays. Last season in this race it was a more balanced build that was the optimal lineup, but with Kyle Busch in the field for Saturday’s race, I think you will need more than one value play to fit him in. This will be one race where you can consider fading Busch at his $13K salary because he will need to lead all laps and win to make value. Now, that is certainly a possibility and something I think can happen but it’s not a guarantee.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Kyle Busch ($13,000)

Starting Position: 5th

This will be Kyle’s first-ever road course race in the Truck Series, but that isn’t really an issue. We know KB has a good truck and will be running up front all day. The real question is, can he pay off his salary in such few laps in this race? I believe he can, but it will be difficult.

Sheldon Creed ($10,600)

Starting Position: 1st

Creed is a road course expert. In five career races on this track type, Creed has never finished outside the top 5 and has an average finish of 3rd. In practice on Friday, Creed put down the single best lap time, which is not surprising to me. If you want to fade KB, then I think Creed is the best option to use as your potential dominator.

Kaz Grala ($9,900)

Starting Position: 18th

Kaz Grala will be in the Young’s Motorsports 02 on Saturday and he should be a contender for a top 10. This truck has fared well this season, unfortunately, the one time Grala was in it the engine went. Grala has run five road course races in his Truck Series career and has three top 10’s and an average finish of 10.2. Grala ran exceptionally well in this race last season starting from the front row finishing right where he started in second place putting him in the optimal lineup.

Other Options: John Hunter Nemechek ($10,400 – P11): Nemechek has one win in 8 career RC races and has an avg finish of 9.3. I think there is value in JHN on Saturday, but I just like the upside of the three drivers above more. I also believe that Creed will carry far less ownership than Nemechek. Grant Enfinger ($9,300 – P16th): Enfinger was fast in practice and was one of the few drivers to run 8 laps. Last season in this race Enfinger started 23rd but finished 4th. I anticipate a similar performance on Saturday, but I think Grala comes in at lower ownership in this price range. Ben Rhodes ($9,500 – P13), Alex Bowman ($10,100 – P3)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K-$8.9K)

Tyler Ankrum ($8,300)

Starting Position:10th

Last season Ankrum started this race from the pole and would end up finishing 3rd. Ankrum was in the top 10 in DKFP for that race as well. In his career at road courses (5 races), Ankrum is averaging 37 DKFP per race which is second most of all drivers in this race (Creed – 44.4). I know there are better PD plays in this tier, but they will be much higher owned and I anticipate Ankrum carrying extremely low ownership.

Matt DiBenedetto ($8,900)

Starting Position: 36th

Speaking of high-owned drivers, here’s Matt DiBenedetto. Listen, I don’t care for DiBenedetto as a driver but he has done ok in the Truck Series this season. Last week was a rough week for the 25 team, but DiBenedetto looks to have a better truck this week. In practice on Friday, Matty D was 7th in single lap and he has the best place differential upside in the race. The only downside to rostering DiBenedetto will be his incredibly high ownership. If you are playing SE contests, then I will implore you to roster him.

Parker Kligerman ($8,500)

Starting Position: 4th

Kligerman is a fantastic road course racer and showed some good speed and handling in practice on Friday afternoon. In four career Truck Series road course races, Kligerman has three top 10’s and a top 5 leading to an 8.5 avg finish. Going back to practice, Kligerman was the fourth fastest truck in single lap time and will be a low-owned pivot off the obvious chalk of DiBenedetto.

Other Options: Ty Majeski ($7,700 – P19), Matt Crafton ($8,100 P20), Tanner Gray ($7,400 – P28)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Austin Wayne Self ($6,900) – P15
Hailie Deegan ($6,600) – P23
Tate Fogleman ($5,700) – P31
Dean Thompson ($5,500) – P33
Timmy Hill ($5,200) – P25
Jack Wood ($6,000) – P27
Will Rodgers ($5,800) – P34
Matt Jaskol (4,900) – P35

Make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more FREE NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Atlanta 3/20

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Atlanta has been renovated since the last time the NASCAR Cup Series was here in July of 2021. The 1.5 oval was reconfigured to have 28-degree banking from 24 degrees, which is higher than any other 1.5-mile track. The front stretch was widened as well. These changes were done to promote a superspeedway style of racing similar to Daytona and Talladega.

Kurt Busch stated that “Once we got out there in a group the pace picked up by over a second having the cars draft together… things were amplified way more than what we expected when we had just three cars drafting with each other”. Ross Chastain also said that you will “need friends to navigate the draft”. Both of these drivers tested tires for Goodyear at Atlanta back in January.

Roster construction

We saw it all come apart at the end of the Xfinity race on Saturday night and while that could happen on Sunday, I don’t think it will. There are some great place differential plays in this race, the best of those being Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. One thing I did notice in the Xfinity race was you needed teammates to move through the field and the same will most likely be true on Sunday. Similar to MLB and NHL, stacking teammates might not be a bad idea. Now at the finish of the Xfinity race, the teammate pushing fell apart some, except for Kaulig, but it was key to leading laps early in the race. This is a 500-mile race with 325 laps on Sunday meaning we have 227.5 dominator points available in this race.

Looking at build types for this race, we don’t really need to value tier. Pricing is such that you can easily run a 2-3-1 type build with 2 dominators, 3 mid-tier, and one value. Depending on which top-tier drivers you use, a 3-2-1 build is also a possibility. No matter the build type you go with, I think one value driver is all you’ll need on Sunday.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($10,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 52%]

Starting Position: 21st

Larson was not fast in single-lap speed, but over the long run he really picked it up. In the 5-lap average Larson was 10th, and he was top-5 in the 10, 15, and 20-lap averages as well. I know this is a new racing surface and the field will be racing differently on Sunday, but it’s hard to think that Larson won’t be good on Sunday and potentially dominate a good portion of this race.

Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas:

All four of their Cup cars were great in practice on Saturday. The best of the bunch may have been the driver not in this price tier, Christopher Bell ($7,700 – P27). Bell was the top car in 10-lap average as well as third in single lap speed. Kyle Busch ($9,800 – P4) was 2nd in single-lap speed, third in 10-lap avg, and he was atop the chart in five-lap avg. Denny Hamlin ($10,100 – P15) was 8th in single-lap speed and 5th in 10-lap average so it could be a good sign for the veteran. Hamlin has not had a good year so far, but this speed is promising for him. Lastly, Martin Truex Jr.($9,200 – P26), could end up being the best play of this group. Truex was 9th in single-lap speed and 11th in 10-lap average.

Chase Elliott ($10,300) [ Proj. Ownership:13% ]

Starting Position: 6th

Elliott was fast in practice and is someone I will look to play with Larson in lineups. Similar to Larson, Elliott did not have a great single-lap run (11th), but he did have the 2nd best 10-lap average. Elliott also had the 2nd best 15-lap average and the 3rd fastest 20-lap average.

Other Options: Ryan Blaney ($10,700 – P2): Blaney didn’t have a great practice session and is the most expensive driver in the field. I do think Blaney gets ahead of Briscoe and leads the early portion of this race. Blaney won’t be highly owned at his price and starting position. William Byron ($9,400 – P12): Byron wasn’t fast in practice, but both Larson and Elliott were so I am not worried about Byron. Tyler Reddick ($9,000 – P5): Reddick WAS fast in practice and he has been so close to wins multiple times this season some would say he is due. RCR uses Hendrick engines, so using Reddick with the HMS cars is a good way to be different.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ricky Stenhouse ($7,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 31% ]

Starting Position: 28th

Stenhouse is a great superspeedway driver and he showed amazing speed in practice on Saturday. In that practice session, nobody put down a faster lap than Stenhouse did and he was also 6th fastest in 10-lap average. Stenhouse is another Chevy that uses Hendrick engines. With the speed he had in practice and the potential to get through the field with the HMS cars makes Stenhouse of my favorite plays in the field on Sunday.

Bubba Wallace ($7,300) [ Proj. Ownership: 19% ]

Starting Position: 19th

Wallace has always been a better superspeedway driver than he has at 1.5-mile tracks. With Atlanta working as a mini-superspeedway, Wallace should perform well on Sunday because of this. Wallace will run with the JGR Toyota’s, if he can link up with them that is. On Saturday in practice, Wallace was a top 20 car in practice.

Brad Keselowski ($8,600) [ Proj. Ownership: 23%]

Starting Position: 24th

Will Brad Keselowski wreck anyone on Sunday? Well, yes he most likely will. Keselowski was showing some decent speed on Saturday, but he was great in superspeedway races so far this season. Keselowski won his duel before the Daytona 500 and ran great at Daytona (while wrecking half the field at that). I view Kes as a top 15 car on Sunday.

Other Options: Austin Cindric ($7,800 – P16), Alex Bowman ($8,800 – P11), Austin Dillon ($7,400 – P17)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Harrison Burton ($6,400) P31: Burton has not been great, but he showed speed on Saturday. In practice on Saturday, Burton was fourth in single lap speed and was 16th in 10-lap average.
Erik Jones ($6,900) P23: Jones is having his best season in two years and showed some good speed on Saturday. In practice, Jones was top 15 in single lap speed and was 8th in 5-lap average.
Michael McDowell ($6,600) P29: McDowell is another driver like Burton and Jones, that showed some good speed on Saturday. In reality, all three of these drivers project similarily so I suggest that you use who ever fits your build best.

Cole Custer ($6,300 – P20), Corey Lajoie ($5,300 -P33), and Daniel Suarez ($6,800 – P13) are the next group of three that can be used in this tier. While I like Suarez, you are better off with one of Burton/McDowell/Jones.

Ty Dillon ($6,000 – P18), Noah Gragson ($5,800 – P30), and Chris Buescher ($6,700 – P14) are the last three viable options in this tier. Gragson has the best PD upside, while Buescher has had the most success at superspeedways.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from Atlanta 3/19

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop breakdown for Atlanta! I am not going to lie, I have no idea what to expect from this track. If anyone out there in the industry tells you they know how Atlanta will race this weekend they are lying. Nobody really knows what to expect from this track (not even NASCAR and their drivers) after it was completely ripped up and a new track was installed. Speedway motorsports repaved and reconfigured this track after the July 2021 race here. The 1.5 oval was reconfigured to have 28-degree banking from 24 degrees, which is higher than any other 1.5-mile track. The front stretch was widened as well. These changes were done to promote a superspeedway style of racing similar to Daytona and Talladega.

Roster Construction

My suggestion for this weekend will be to play light and build multiple lineups. If you are not an avid NASCAR DFS player, maybe sit this weekend out. There are two schools of thought here, one being that the drivers will race like Daytona and it could turn into a wreck fest where we need to stack the back. The second one is that the drivers will just drive around single file trying not to wreck and maybe push for a win in the late stages of the race.

Roster construction looks to be different than in the Truck Series race. In that race we had a lot of solid PD plays, there are very few in this race. For the Xfinity race, I think we need to build a more balanced lineup.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Noah Gragson ($10,700)

Starting Position: 1st

Gragson has been the best driver in this series all season. In four races, Gragson’s lowest finish is 3rd and he is coming off a victory at Phoenix last week. Gragson is on the pole, so of course, there is some risk there, but he has led at last 12 laps in every race this season and led 114 last week.

Landon Cassill ($9,300)

Starting Position: 10th

Cassill has run well for Kauling in his four races this season, outside of California where he wrecked and turned his car into a ball of fire on wheels. Since then, Cassill has finished top 10 in back-to-back races and it appears he is settling in nicely with his new team. This week will be hard to predict, but I see Cassill finishing with another top 10 alongside teammate AJ Allmendinger.

Trevor Bayne ($9,900)

Starting Position: 5th

Bayne was really fast at Phoenix and could have won that race. In two races in the 18 for JGR this season, Bayne has started top 5 and finished top 5. With how fast this car was last week and with the showing Bayne has had in 2022 I expect another top 5 on Saturday.

Other Options: Daniel Hemric ($9,700 – P8), AJ Allmendinger ($10,300 – P7), Ty Gibbs ($10,100 – P4)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Riley Herbst ($8,300)

Starting Position: 24th

I know Herbst hurt a lot of us last week with his wreck early in the race. This was all too common for Herbst in 2021, but such is not the case this season. In four races, that was Herbst’s first wreck on this young season, prior to that wreck Herbst has two top 10s and three top 15s. I am going back to the well with Riley Herbst and the #98 this week.

JJ Yeley ($7,000)

Starting Position: 21st

Yeley is a consistently middle-of-the-pack driver in lower-tier equipment this season. So far in 2022, Yeley has finished anywhere from 13th to 25th. This is the highest his salary has been this season, so there is a lot of risk involved with using Yeley on Saturday but he is a high reward play that will certainly carry very little ownership.

Brett Moffitt ($7,800)

Starting Position: 16th

Moffitt is a driver I rarely play, but I really don’t know why. This season, Moffitt has been a very serviceable driver for DFS purposes. Outside of Daytona where he started 5th and finished 34th after an early wreck, he has been fairly consistent. Moffitt’s best finish came at Las Vegas when he finished 8th and he has back-to-back top 15s.

Other Options: Anthony Alfredo ($8,100 – P27), Sage Karam ($7,100 -P29), Sheldon Creed ($8,900 – P13)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Jade Buford ($6,300) – P30: Buford’s DFS status has been done in by his own good qualifying efforts this season. With Buford starting from P30, he will be in play again on Saturday and I expect him to be a mid-20s driver in this race
Tommy Joe Martins ($6,500) – P37: Martins starts 37th on Saturday and will have some of the best PD upside in this race.
Mason Massey ($6,100) – P26: We will need some cheaper value plays on this slate to make our builds work and Massey fits that bill. Massey is a consistent presence in the mid-20’s and that is most likely where he will end up this week again unless there is some attrition and he isn’t involved.
Shane Lee ($5,100) – P35: I’m not the biggest fan of this play, BUT he starts at the back and if it’s a SS wreck fest then we could see a top 15 from Lee
Bayley Currey ($5,300) – P20: I don’t love playing Currey starting this high, but in GPP’s I don’t see him being highly owned. Currey has driven well in 2022 and has three top 20 fnishes.
Kyle Sieg ($6,600) – P31: Sieg has been a surprise DFS darling early on this season. Coming into the race at Phoenix last week, Sieg had three straight finishes of 21st or better. Unfortunately that streak ended when Sieg wrecked at Phoenix, but that just means he can start a new one on Saturday.
Matt Mills ($5,600) – P33: Mills’ numbers would be better, if not for his 36th place finish at Vegas. Prior to that, Mills had back-to-back top 25s.
Josh Williams ($5,400) – P36: See Shane Lee.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series from Atlanta 3/19

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

What the drivers are saying…

Roster Construction

For this race, I think we take a hybrid stack-the-back approach. I don’t think you’ll need to select six drivers starting in the 30s, but I think the best bet would be to take 3-4 drivers starting towards the back, look for 1 potential race dominator and fill out the rest with whoever best fits the salary you have remaining. I’m sorry I can’t be more precise and give better advice, but if I did give out firm advice it would be me lying to you and that’s not what I do. I want those of you who read my articles to be successful and I am not just looking for clicks.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Ross Chastain ($10,700)

Starting Position: 36th

Chastain is back in the Truck Series this weekend in the Niece Motorsports #41. Will Chastain be chalky? Probably. Will he be worth ignoring that fact? Yes. Chastain has had a great season in the Cup Series so far and he should run well here on Saturday. This is a pay-up spot that can’t really hurt you with Chastain starting dead last and I view Chastain as a core play on this slate.

Zane Smith ($9,600)

Starting Position: 25th

Zane Smith has two top 2 finishes this season and he gets a $600 price decrease this week. Smith starts 25th and potentially has the chance to be the best play on this slate. I will have plenty of exposure to the 38 truck this week.

John Hunter Nemechek ($11,100)

Starting Position: 12th

Nemechek has wrecked in both truck races this season so there is potential that people shy away, especially with there being a few drivers in this tier worth using on Saturday. With Chastain most likely carrying the highest ownership, Nemechek could be significantly lower owned than he usually is.

Other Options: Ben Rhodes ($10,000 – P15), Ryan Preece ($10,200 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K-$8.9K)

Jordan Anderson ($7,600)

Starting Position: 33rd

Anderson will be the mid-tier chalk play on Saturday but this time I am ok if you choose to fade him. I will have exposure to Anderson in my builds because I am prioritizing the top tier in this race. Anderson fits perfectly in a Chastain/Smith/JNH build with two value plays.

Matt Crafton ($8,300)

Starting Position: 3rd

With this race being so unpredictable, it might not be a bad a idea to take a chance on a driver who could lead laps early in GPP’s. Crafton is a veteran driver, one of the few in the field, who will be best equipped to handle this track as the rest of the field learns how it races. With Smith and Friesen starting in front of him, Crafton could easily get out in front early and lead some laps.

Hailie Deegan ($7,100)

Starting Position: 27th

Deegan is a driver similar to Anderson where as she might be semi-chalky and I will not argue if you fade her but she also fits perfectly in three top tier lineups. Deegan started out the season well in Daytona with a 17th place finish, but she wrecked in Las Vegas and came home 34th. The 17th place finish Deegan earned in Daytona is more like where I think she will run all season and a top 20 is what I expect on Saturday.

Other Options: Corey Heim ($8,500 – P19th), Chase Purdy ($7,200 -P20), Derek Kraus ($7,500 – P18)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Jesse Little ($5,300) – P34: Little was 6th at Daytona, but I do not expect that type of finish on Saturday. Realistically a top 30 is more likely but he will still make value if he does that.
Kris Wright ($5,400) – P21: Wright is a riskier play, but he has finished top 20 in both races this season. I can see that happening again on Saturday.
Brennan Poole ($6,400) – P35: Poole doesn’t offer much upside, and is riskier than Little even though he start one spot behind him. But if this is a wreck fest, than Poole could be a top 10 truck. Either way, if you have the salary and want to stack the back Poole is a good play.
Jack Wood ($6,900) – P22: If this ends up being a drafting race then Wood has a chance at a solid day. Wood is in a GMS truck which means he is teammates with some of the top drivers in the field. Wood could pull a top 10 with his teammates.
Timmy Hill ($6,100) – P23: Timmy Hill is someone we NEVER roster in the Cup Series, but in the Truck Series it’s a completely different situation. Hill has finished top 20 in both races this season and his truck is usually one of the better ones in the field. Hill is experienced enough to navigate the field and if this is a drafting race he is smart enough to avoid the potential big ones.
Matt Jaskol ($5,000) – P31: Jaskol is the cheapest driver in the field and starts near the back. At Las Vegas, Jaskol drove this truck to a 22nd place finish and a top 25 is not out of the question.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR Premium

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Phoenix 3/13

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

This week we get our first “short track” of the season which means we have a plethora of dominator points on the table on Sunday. Sunday’s race has 312 laps which convert into 218.4 dominator points. At this race last season, Joey Logano led 143 laps but he would finish second to Martin Truex Jr. who led just 64 laps on his way to victory. Last fall at the Championship race it was more balanced with three drivers leading at least 72 laps and all three would finish in the top 5.

Phoenix has been dominated by two teams over the last few seasons. In the last seven races, six of them have been won by either Hendrick or Joe Gibbs cars including the last three. Logano winning in March of 2020 is the only outlier in this stretch, but we do have a Penske car on the pole on Sunday in Ryan Blaney so maybe this streak can be snapped. We have had six different winners in the last six races at Phoenix and if that trend is to continue on Sunday I could see one of Blaney, William Byron, or Tyler Reddick going to victory lane on Sunday.

Roster construction

Last season at this race, eight of the top ten in DKFP started inside the top 10. Looking back at the optimal lineups at that race none of the top 5 scoring lineups had more than two value tier plays so we are looking at a more balanced approach. I think we can implement that same lineup building style on Sunday, there is even enough value in the lower-priced top tier and mid-tier that building lineups with one value play is totally feasible.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kevin Harvick ($9,100) [Proj. Ownership: 31%]

Starting Position: 16th

Harvick has been one of the most dominant drivers in the history of Phoenix Raceway. Since 2012 (20 races), Harvick has had 19 top tens. Yes, you read that correctly, Kevin Harvick has finished in the top 10 nineteen of his last twenty races at Phoenix. Harvick also has 14 top 5’s and seven victories. Harvick wasn’t great in practice posting just the 24th best single lap, but during the long runs, he had top 10 speed and I expect a 20th top 10 in 21 races on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800) [Proj. Ownership: 29%]

Starting Position: 20th

Truex wasn’t fast in practice, but I am not worried about his lack of speed. Phoenix is one of MTJ’s better tracks with two straight top 2 finishes and five top 10’s in his last seven here. In the last six races here, Truex has an average finish of 8.8 and is averaging 32.2 fastest laps and 24.5 laps led. On Sunday I view Truex as a top 10 car with top 5 upside.

Kyle Larson ($11,800) [Proj. Ownership: 24%]

Starting Position: 7th (will start at the rear)

Larson had the best car in practice on Saturday and I don’t have any worries about him having to start at the back. In 10 lap average Larson was 3rd fastest and in 15, 20, and 25 laps he was tops. Larson led 107 laps and won at Phoenix last fall en route to winning the Cup Series Championship. Since 2018, Larson has a 4.2 average finish which is the best in the series during this time and has not finished below 7th in any race.

Ryan Blaney ($9,600) [Proj. Ownership: 27%]

Starting Position: 1st

Blaney was another car that was incredibly fast in practice and it’s no surprise he is on the pole for Sunday. Blaney was a big letdown last Sunday, but at no fault of his own, he was taken out by the wreck starter himself, Brad Keselowski. I don’t expect Blaney to be caught up in any wreck on Sunday. In practice on Saturday, Blaney was 2nd fastest in EVERY category, trailing only Larson in averages and Austin Cindric in single lap speed.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,400 – P10) – Logano has to be considered a favorite on Sunday because of his track history here. Chase Elliott ($10,700 – P19) – Elliott was not one of the fast cars in practice, but that isn’t a worry, Elliott loves Phoenix and will be a top 10 car on Sunday. William Byron ($9,400 – P3) – Byron had the fastest 10 lap average and was top five in single lap speed. Kyle Busch ($11,200 – P11) – Busch is expensive but there is some upside here. He won’t be starting dead last like last week, but Busch traditionally runs well at Phoenix.

Denny Hamlin usually runs well here, but I need to see him finish a race before I can pay $10,100 in salary to roster him. If you think this is the week he turns it around, go for it, but for me, he is a fade.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Ross Chastain ($8,100) [Proj. Ownership: 26%]

Starting Position: 17th

Last week Chastain was the one driver I missed on, but not this week. Trackhouse has been fast and been near or at the front of the field for a good portion of the last two races and Chastain should be a threat to get there again on Sunday. Chastain is an aggressive driver and we have seen that the guys who drive like him have the most success in the Next-Gen car. In practice, Chastain was top 10 in both single lap speed and 10 lap average.

Ricky Stenhouse ($7,000) [Proj. Ownership: 38%]

Starting Position: 36th

Stenhouse had a top 20 car in practice, but then the engine gave out (valve spring) and he was unable to make a qualifying attempt which means he starts dead last. Hendrick was able to give him a new engine to put into this car so we know it will be fast and I think this is a chalk play that you need to eat and enjoy the +20 place differential. I view Stenhouse as a top 15 car with huge upside and little to no downside.

AJ Allmendinger ($7,200) [Proj. Ownership:]

Starting Position: 29th

In his Cup career, Allmendinger has never really run well at Phoenix, but this car is probably the best he’s ever had here. In practice, Allmendinger had a top 10 single lap time and was 16th in 10 lap average. Allmendinger came home 7th in the Xfinity race here while running as high as 2nd and spending 95.7% of the race in the top 15. Now, I know these stats don’t translate but just getting seat time on this track and running as well as he did has to be a confidence boost for Dinger for Sunday’s race.

Other Options: Tyler Reddick ($8,500 – P12) – I love this play for Sunday, the only reason he wasn’t higher in my rankings was because of salary. I think we need the $7K drivers if we want to go three deep on dominators. Brad Keselowski ($8,200 – P18) – While Keselowski has wrecked plenty of drivers this season he has kept his own car pretty clean. Kes has top 10 upside on Sunday. Austin Cindric ($7,700 – P8) – We go from the old driver of the #2 to the new one. Cindric was fast in practice, even producing the fastest single lap time. I view Cindric as a potential top 10 car, but realistically a mid-teens car.

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Bubba Walalce ($6,400) – P27: Bubba was much faster in practice than his qualifying postion would lead you to believe (13th in SL and 10 Lap avg). On Sunday expect a mid teens performance out of the 23 team.
Cole Custer ($6,200) – P25: Custer did not have a great run in practice, but I epxect his team, with the help of Harvick, to get this car right and gain some speed as the race progresses.
Harrison Burton ($5,700) – P24: Here we are again with another driver who was great in practice but it did not translate to a good qualifying effort. This typically happens when a car is trimmed out for racing, not qualifying. Burton is a top 15 car on Sunday in my eyes.
Todd Gilliland ($4,900) – P33: I expect some ownership for Gilliland on Sunday, but if you need the savings you will have to eat this chalk. It’s neccissarily good chalk, but he is the only option I am considering in this price range. Gilliland is one of the top Fpts/$ plays on this slate.
Daniel Suarez ($6,600) – P23: Suarez wasn’t fast in practice but we have seen these Trackhouse over perform on the season, so why not Suare again on Sunday.
Justin Haley ($6,000) – P28: Haley should some speed on Saturday in practice and I view the 31 car as a top 20 upside play.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from Phoenix 3/12

Matt Vecchio 3 years ago

written by Matt Vecchio

This week the NASCAR Xfinity Series wraps up their three-race west coast swing with a return to where the title was handed out to Daniel Hemric last season, Phoenix. Saturday’s race is a 200 lap race which means there is a fair share of dominator points to be had, 140 to be exact. Last season at Phoenix we saw one dominator lead the majority of both races. In both races, Austin Cindric led over 100 laps and no one else led more than 44. Now Cindric isn’t in this race, but Justin Allgaier is and without seeing any practice laps turned, he is the favorite this week to be the top dominator.

Roster Construction

Last season at this track is was a full-on stars and scrubs roster build. It was also a stack the back type of race which I am not sure will be the case on Saturday. Looking at the top plays (pre-practice/qualifying) we should be building similarly to last season.

***** Reminder that these plays are all pre-practice and qualifying. I will update the plays in DISCORD ONLY after qualifying *****

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Justin Allgaier ($11,500)

In the last four races at Phoenix, Allgaier has the most avg laps led per race (39.8) and fastest laps (21.3). On top of leading the most laps and having the most laps led, Allgaier also has the most DKFP average among drivers with more than one race in the last two seasons here.

John Hunter Nemechek ($9,200)

JHN has only raced at Phoenix four times in an Xfinity car but he has never finished outside the top 10. Nemechek has an average finish of 7th here at Phoenix as well as leading 72 laps. I consider Nemechek a top 10 contender with top 5 upside in this race.

Noah Gragson ($11,200)

Gragson has had a spectacular start to the 2022 season but he just has not been able to find victory lane, yet. So far in three races this season, Gragson has finished 3rd and 2nd (twice) for an average finish of 2.3. Gragson also has earned the most DKFP per race (driver with more than one start) with 63.3. Gragson wrecked in this race last season but without that finish, he has never finished lower than 12th. Gragson finally gets it done on Saturday in my opinion and heads to victory lane.

Other Options: Ty Gibbs ($10,900), AJ Allmendinger ($10,400), Brandon Jones ($9,500), Daniel Hemric ($10,400)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Riley Herbst ($8,000)

Herbst has had a much better start to the 2022 season than he did in 2021. Early on this season, Herbst has an avg finish of 9th with a top 5 and two top 10’s in three races. Last season at Phoenix, Herbst finished 4th in both races here and has four straight finishes of 11th or better.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,600)

Alfredo has been the benefit of some great, but risky calls by his crew chief. Prior to Vegas where he finished 17th, Alfredo had a 5th and 7th place finish this season. It’ll be key to see where Alfredo qualifies, but if it’s where he has typically started in 2022 he should be in the mid 20’s (23rd avg start in 2022) but finish in the top 15 giving him some good upside.

Other Options: Sam Mayer ($8,700), Austin Hill ($7,800), Brandon Brown ($7,200)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Jeremy Clements ($6,800)
Alex Labbe ($6,000)
Jade Buford ($5,300)
Kaz Grala ($6,400)
JJ Yeley ($6,500)
Josh Williams ($5,800)
Bayley Currey ($5,900)

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Las Vegas 3/6

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Hittin the track in Vegas!

This week the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Vegas for the second leg of their west coast trip. Las Vegas Motorspeedway is a smooth intermediate 1.5-mile track. Unlike last week in Fontana, tire wear will not be an issue but track position will. We can still look to Auto Club as a gauge since it is the only intermediate track the NexGen car has raced at this season.

NASCAR held an extended practice this weekend as opposed to the 20 minutes the teams had last week. To no one’s surprise, Kyle Larson dominated practice and had the fastest single lap, 5 lap, and 10 lap averages. There was only one driver who bettered Larson at any length, William Byron was fastest in 15-lap and 20-lap averages. Byron’s car will be good on the long run with Larson. Another driver who was fast on Saturday was Ryan Blaney. Blaney was the only driver other than Byron who was top 3 in all facets of practice, running the best 25-ap average. Kyle Busch spun early in practice after running top 10 speeds and will be going to his backup car, but this also means he didn’t run a qualifying lap and will start dead last.

Roster Construction

Short and sweet… load up on the top tier. I like 3-4 dominator builds this week, similar to the Xfinity race. There is plenty of value in this race that makes these types of builds easy to do.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,300) [ Proj. Ownership: 34% ]

Starting Position: 2nd

Nobody had a better car in practice than Larson and he should be the top dominator in this race. With track position being key, Larson starting on the front row should give him the chance to get out front early and lead laps. Larson is coming off a victory last week and won at Vegas last fall. Larson is the favorite to win this race and he is my pick as well.

Kevin Harvick ($9,100) [ Proj. Ownership: 39% ]

Starting Position: 25th

Harvick was not fast in practice but he was running consistent laps and we have seen the Fords run well in every race this season. In three of his last four Vegas races, Harvick has finished no worse than 10th but his one poor performance was at this race last year where his team just missed the setup (no practice or qualifying). I believe that this car will be faster on Sunday and come home with a top 10.

William Byron ($9,800) [ Proj. Ownership: 18% ]

Starting Position: 14th

Fast Willy B was just that on Saturday in practice. Byron was top two in all multi-lap averages he ran in (Byron did not run 25 consecutive laps) and was the only driver to do so. Las Vegas is a track where Byron typically runs fast, but he has had some issues. The last time the series was here in the Fall, Byron was a top 5 car all day but had a ton of issues and finished 18th. Last season at intermediate tracks, Byron had the top speed ranking and was either 1st or 2nd in speed in the last five races.

Ryan Blaney ($10,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 23% ]

Starting Position: 11th

Blaney will be a top 5 car on Sunday. He may not finish there, because the unpredictable can always happen in NASCAR, but Blaney was fast in practice and should be in contention for the win on Sunday. Blaney has an average finish of 6.6 in the last five Vegas races and has finished 7th or better in eight of the last ten.

Kyle Busch ($10,200) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 47% ]

Starting Position: 37th

Like I mentioned in the open, Busch will be going to his backup car and be starting dead last. Busch’s backup car is said to not be “race ready” so there is a chance this car might not be competitive on Sunday. I still expect Busch to be highly owned but because of the potential upside, I will have some shares. This is one of Kyle’s better tracks with an average finish of 4th in the last three races and finished 3rd in both races here in 2021.

Other Options: Joey Logano ($10,800 – P6) – Logano is a pivot off of the chalky Busch and was running really fast laps in practice on Saturday. Chase Elliott ($11,000 – P5) – Expensive, but another fast Hendrick car. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,500 – P12) – MTJ is the pivot off Harvick in GPPs or MME. Could be a top 10 car with top 5 upside. Tyler Reddick ($9,300 – P7) – After how well Reddick has run this season it will be hard to fade him. I may not have a lot of exposure but I will have Reddick in some lineups.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Kurt Busch ($8,900) [ Proj. Ownership: 36% ]

Starting Position: 31st

Kurt Busch is either a top 8 car or 20th or worse car at Vegas in his last six races here with no in-between. On Saturday, Busch was showing top 20 speed in practice but had a terrible qualifying effort. Busch is another driver who will carry high ownership, but I like the idea of pairing him with three top-tier lower-owned drivers.

Erik Jones ($7,300) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 37% ]

Starting Position: 23rd

Erik Jones has been outstanding to start the season and was one of the best cars last week at Auto Club. Jones finished 3rd after finishing 2nd in both stages. At Fontana, Jones’s accomplishments continued with the best total speed ranking, best green flag speed, the best driver rating, a 4.3 average running position, and 2nd fastest driver late in a run. This team seems to have intermediate tracks figured out and because of this, Jones will be high on my radar on Sunday.

Christopher Bell ($8,200) [ [ Proj. Ownership: 29% ]

Starting Position: 1st

Bell is risky as he and the JGR Toyota’s have not run well so far this season but he showed plenty of speed on Saturday. In practice, Bell was 2nd in single-lap speed, and third in 10-lap average. Last year at this race, Bell finished 7th after running top 10 all day and 6th in stage 1 and 7th in stage 2.

Other Options: Alex Bowman ($8,700 – P13), Daniel Suarez ($7,000 – P21), Aric Almirola ($7,800 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Daniel Hemric ($5,800) – P16 : Hemric has a fast car running top 10 practice speeds in every category he ran in. I might have more exposure to Hemric than any other driver in the field.
Cole Custer ($6,700) – P24: Custer was faster in practice than his qualifying effort showed. We saw Custer run well at Auto Club last weekend and I expect a top 15 from the 41 on Sunday.
Chris Buescher ($6,500) – P27: There is some upside to Buescher on Sunday, but I only see him as a top 20 car on Sunday. His speeds were in the mid 20’s on Saturday.
Harrison Burton ($5,900) – P19: Burton ran well in practice with mid teens speed. We know the Fords have performed at high levels this season, so Burton could surprise but reaslitically he is a top 15 car at best.
Ty Dillon ($5,600) – P32: I don’t expect much from Dillon on Sunday since he ran speeds right around his qualifying effory. With attrition this is a top 20 car, but it will take a lot for that to happen.
Bubba Wallace ($6,300) P17: Wallace had good long run speed in practice and could be a contendor for a top 10, but a more realistic expectation is mid to high teens

All three of Michael McDowell, Corey Lajoie, and Todd Gilliland are three sub $5.5K plays that can be used in four dominator builds. Lajoie was the fastest of these three in practice but they all project around the same points.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Xfinity Series from Las Vegas 3/5

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Vegas baby!!!

Vegas is the home of NASCAR this weekend as they continue their tour of the West Coast. This track is a cookie-cutter-Esque 1.5 mile. Unlike last week, tire wear will not be an issue this week, but track position is important at Vegas. At this race last season, only three drivers who finished inside the top 10 started lower than 10th. At the fall race here in Vegas, only two drivers starting lower than 11th finished in the top 11. There is a couple of place differential plays that we should have exposure to in the top tier, but there are also some great plays at the top.

Roster Construction

Last season at this race it was all about the top tier/dominators. None of the top eight DKFP scoring drivers was less than $9K in salary (Daniel Hemric $9,200). Looking back at the optimal lineups, the top five scoring lineups at this race were all “stars and scrubs” builds and I see a similar build taking down GPPs on Saturday. Not one of the top five lineups has less than three top-tier priced drivers, and two even had four.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Like I mentioned in the open two drivers are going to be semi-chalky place differential plays in this race on Saturday. Both Ty Gibbs ($11,000 -P11) and Justin Allgaier ($10,400 – P16) were fast in practice with them ranking 4th and 6th respectively in single-lap speed and Gibbs was 3rd in 10-lap average. I have not decided how much of each driver I will have but I don’t think fading them is a good idea. These are two cars that could easily both finish top 5 or win this race.

Noah Gragson ($10,800) [ Proj Ownership: 42%]

Starting Position: 4th

It doesn’t seem like it, but Gragson has some place differential upside here because he is my pick to win in his hometown. Gragson has never won here, but he also has never finished lower than 6th in six races and has a 3.8 average finish. In practice on Friday nobody was faster than Gragson, he had the best single lap and 10-lap average. It’s hard for me to bet against Gragson on Saturday in this race.

Danie Hemric ($9,900) [Proj. Ownership: 25%]

Starting Position: 6th

Hemric finished 2nd in this race last season and has three straight top 5’s at Vegas. In practice on Friday, Hemric was 7th in single-lap speed but had the second-best 10-lap average. There really isn’t much to say about Hemric, he runs well in Vegas and he has a fast car, play him.

Brandon Jones ($9,500) [Proj. Ownership: 26%]

Starting Position: 21st

Jones was not fast in practice (16th SL, 14th 10L), but Vegas is a good track for him. Now, Jones will start at the rear on Saturday but I see him coming through the field early and be a contender for a top 10. Jones has four top 6 finishes in his last 5 races and his average finish here in 10 career races is 9.2.

Other Options: AJ Allmendinger (10,200 – P1), John Hunter Nemechek ($9,200 – P10), Josh Berry ($9,700 – P2)

EVERY driver in this price tier is in play. I suggest working your lineups from the TOP down. Fit in three of these drivers first, make them the priority before looking at the value tier. This is where the majority of your points will come from and it’s important to use the right pieces.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Myatt Snider ($8,000) [ Proj. Ownership: 26%]

Starting Position: 34th

Snider had a hiccup in qualifying that has him starting from the rear, but he will actually be starting higher than he is scored (which is VERY rare) because of so many drivers having to go to the back. In practice, Snider was 20th in 10 lap average and was 15th in single-lap speed. Snider fits in three dominator builds nicely at his salary and I expect to have a lot of exposure to him.

Jeb Burton ($7,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 47%]

Burton had a rough go in practice and qualifying on Friday spinning out in both. Because of this, Burton will start dead last but if his team got his car fixed, and I believe they did, he could be a top 20 finisher. In the few laps Burton ran he posted the 23rd best single lap, nothing to write home about, but he should be faster than that on race day.

Ryan Truex ($8,500) [ Proj. Ownership: 17% ]

Starting Position: 7th

Truex is in the #18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota on Saturday, so we know he has top-tier equipment. That showed on Friday as he was the third-fastest in single-lap speed and 10-lap average. Truex could be the pivot off the chalkier Snider that leads someone to a big payday on Saturday in this race. There is plenty of risk in Truex that there isn’t with Snider, so he isn’t a cash or single-entry play in my eyes.

Other Options: Anthony Alfredo ($7,800 – P25), Sam Mayer ($8,600 – P9), Ryan Sieg ($7,200 – P20)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Joe Graf Jr. ($5,200) – P23: We know this car is fast considering it won the race at Fontana last week. Now, that was with Cole Custer behind the wheel but Graf is a good driver and a top 20 is definetly in the cards here.
JJ Yeley ($6,600) – P30: Plenty of PD upside here for Yeley, but he does have some risk of his car giving up making him a GPP only play.
Stefan Parson ($5,600) – P29: Parsons had top 20 speed in practice so this qualifying effort was a bit puzzling. IF Parson car last the entire race, he is a top 20 fnisher with top 15 upside.
CJ McLaughlin ($4,600) – P31: McLaighlin has a car set up for the long run (21st in 10-lap avg) and gives the salary relief needed for 3-4 dominator builds.
Bayley Currey ($5,700) – P27: Similar to Parson, Currey’s car was faster than it showed in qualifying and I think a top 20 is where we could see Currey at the end of the day.
Joey Gase ($5,300) – P36: Not fast, but he is cheap and starts far back. If there is attrition in this race, Gase could have an outstanding day.
Jesse Iwuji ($4,900) – P37: Just like Gase, not fast but cheap and has PD upside if we get some cars falling out early.

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Truck Series from Las Vegas 3/4

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the first Kyle Busch Invitational of 2022!

This week the Truck Series makes its return to Las Vegas, Kyle Busch’s hometown, and his first of five races in this series of 2022. There’s always a decision to be made of how to treat him when Kyle does run in a truck race. DraftKings does the right thing and prices him astronomically high but I do feel he can be used comfortably on Friday. I will go into more in the next paragraph about that.

Last season at this race, John Hunter Nemechek led 70.3% of the laps while nobody else led more than 11% (Busch). I expect this race to be similar with JHN and Busch dominating this race again.

Roster Construction

There are two ways to build for this race, with or without Kyle Busch. If you are doing multiple lineups then you can build both ways, but if you are only doing one lineup you need to decide. I cannot tell you which way you want to go, but I will show you both paths and let you decide. You can build a good lineup with both Busch and Nemechek but that will mean sacrificing the mid-tier completely. Whenever Busch races in the Truck Series it is a difficult build because you have to decide to play him or fade him. Last season Busch finished 1st or 2nd in all five races he ran, led 223 laps (44.6 per race), and had 134 fastest laps.

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier ($9K +)

Kyle Busch – $15,000 (P2)

John Hunter Nemechek – $12,000 (P1)

Whether you decide that you want to use Kyle or not I think it will be necessary to roster one of either Busch or Nemechek on Friday night. These are the two drivers who will spend the majority of the night up front. Last season at times when Busch was racing in the Truck Series he did “let” Nemechek pass him, lead laps, and win stages (Kyle owns the truck JHN drives) and I could see something similar happening this weekend. I will have multiple lineups and at least 2 will have a Busch/Nemechek build and I expect to have one of them in each of my remaining lineups as well.

Chandler Smith ($9,900)

Starting Position: 3rd

Welcome to the KBM Show from beautiful Las Vegas! All three KBM trucks start 1-2-3 in this race and Smith may be the secret weapon tonight. Smith was third fastest in both single lap speed and 10 lap average in practice on Friday. All the KBM trucks are fast this week and I would not be surprised to see them all finish top 5 Friday night.

Ty Majeski ($9,200)

Starting Position: 10th

Majeski looked really fast in practice and has the best place differential upside of all the drivers in this tier. Looking at Friday’s short practice session, no one was faster than Majeski. Not only did Majeski have the best single lap speed, but he was also 8th best in 10-lap average. Majeski finished 13th in his only race here in 2020, but he is now in a Thor Sports truck, his best equipment to date, and should be a contender for the top 5 in this race.

Other Options: Christian Eckes ($9,600 – P9), Zane Smith ($10,200 – P6)

Again, it comes down do you feel comfortable rostering Busch at $15K and that decision is yours alone. I will have 50-60% exposure to him if not higher. If you feel better fading him and hoping for a wreck, I can totally understand that as well.

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K-$8.9K)

Matt DiBendetto ($8,900)

Starting Position: 15th

I don’t love the idea of playing DiBenedetto, but DraftKings priced him much better this week and his truck did show some speed in practice. Matty D starts 15th and ran the 14th best single lap in practice but he did not run 10 consecutive laps. DeBenedetto is a potential top 10 truck and if you want to run a Busch lineup, he is a great fringe top tier play that could run up front.

Grant Enfinger ($8,700)

Starting Position: 11th

Enfinger ran a top 5 lap in practice, but he wasn’t great in the long run (17th 10-lap avg). I am not worried, this is one of the top teams in this sport and they will fix that as the race progresses. If it’s not a KBM truck that wins this race on Friday night, I could definitely see Enfinger in victory lane. Enfinger has a win here at Vegas, has three straight top 10’s, and has only finished lower than 12th twice (wrecked both times).

Stewart Friesen ($8,200)

Starting Position: 17th

Friesen ran much faster in practice than he did in qualifying, which we know means that truck is set up to race, not qualify. In his career at Las Vegas, Friesen has been outstanding and this track s arguably one of his best. Friesen has four straight top 10’s here and has three top 5’s in the last six races. In practice, Friesen was 9th best in single-lap speed and had the 5th best 10-lap average.

Other Options: Bret Holmes ($7,400 – P32) – Holmes had top 25 speed in practice. Matt Crafton (8,500 – P7) – This is Crafton’s 500th career start, narrative alert? Tyler Ankrum ($8,000 – P14), Todd Bodine ($7,500 – P23)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier (Under $7K)

Hailie Deegan ($6,500) – P20: Deegan was top 20 in both single-lap and 10-lap avg in practice.
Jack Wood ($6,900) – P24
Matt Mills ($5,100) – P27: Wasn’t fast in practice, but he is cheap and helps build those KB/JHN lineups
Austin Wayne Self ($5,900) – P18: There is minimal upside here, but Self is usually a safe driver that manages to hang around at the end. Top 15 is the high end projection
Lawless Alan ($5,200) – P26: Another driver who has limited upside but gets you those KB/JHN builds
Timmy Hill ($5,000) -P28: Too cheap for where he starts.
Dean Thompson ($4,600) – P29
Spencer Boyd ($4,700) – P35

There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

3 years ago 0 comments

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NASCAR DFS Pit Stop: Cup Series from Fontana 2/27

rmferenc@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by rmferenc@gmail.com

Welcome to the NASCAR DFS Pit Stop for the Cup series for the 2022 season! If you’ve been with us before then, you know the drill, but welcome if you are new to WinDaily Sports or my NASCAR content! I break down the field each week and give you my favorite plays for each race in three different price categories.

Make sure to check out my NASCAR DFS Tutorial to make sure you are ready and understand how I break down the races and build lineups (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-pit-stop-2021-introduction-to-nascar-dfs/). You will notice that all pricing is for DraftKings in these articles since they are the only site with contests for all three series (Trucks, Xfinity, Cup) and the site I mainly play on. All plays in the Cup Series article will translate to FanDuel if that is where you play. There were a lot of changes in the cars and what driver is in what car/truck in 2022, check out my What’s new in 2022 article (https://windailysports.com/nascar-dfs-whats-new-in-2022/)

California dreamin‘

I had a whole different into planned for this open before practice and qualifying took place. If I am being honest I have no idea what to expect on Sunday afternoon. We saw six cars wreck in some way in practice, and then in qualifying five more spun. I would hope that the teams were able to figure out what happened and have fixed the issue that led to this. With so many cars having issues we won’t have 1-2 chalk plays, we instead have 5-6 drivers who will be popular but ownership could be spread out since you cannot roster all of them. One driver who will be in the group starting at the rear is Kurt Busch. This is a different situation from the rest, Kurt failed tech 3x’s on Friday so he wasn’t allowed to make a qualifying lap and will have to serve a pass-through penalty. Busch is the riskiest play of the drivers starting at the rear but he was 14th in practice and 10th in 10-lap average. It is pretty much a given that Busch will go a lap down early, but there will be plenty of time for him to recover and get back on the lead lap. You won’t Busch in this article, but I expect to have some exposure to Busch on Sunday, but he won’t be my highest owned driver.

Roster Construction

I planned on doing a typical two dominator build for this race because of how the laps led in the previous five races have gone. Similar to the Xfinity Series, typically two drivers lead 75-80% of the laps in races at Auto Club. But with so many drivers that fit the dominator tier, we may be looking at three dominator builds. There is still some value in the mid-tier but very little in the value tier. Luckily we can actually build a variety of lineups with the way this field panned out. Let’s get started!

NASCAR DFS: Top Tier (Dominators) ($9K +)

Kyle Larson ($11,600) [Proj. Ownership: 23%]

Starting Position: 13th

Larson is an interesting play this week. He did not have a great practice, but it was only 15 minutes of track time so it’s hard to really get a gauge on what he can do. We do know that Larson can drive anything to victory lane and he has done so here in the past. Larson should come in at much lower ownership than usual because of the PD plays elsewhere in the field but he has the car and the ability to lead the majority of this race and win.

Kevin Harvick ($9,200) [Proj. Ownership: 45%]

Starting Position: 32nd

On the opposite end of the pricing in this tier is Harvick. Harvick was one of the many cars who had issues in practice and went around in turn four early in the session. This is a track Harvick performs well at with eight top 10’s in his last 12 races here including a win in 2011. For his price, upside, and past track history Harvick is the best of the bunch coming from the back.

Kyle Busch ($10,400) [Proj. Ownership: 30%]

Starting Position: 3rd

Kyle was one of the best cars in the limited practice time the teams had. Busch was 2nd in both single lap and 10-lap practice with Denny Hamlin (single lap) and Chase Elliott (10-lap) being faster. Busch has seven top 3 finishes in the last nine races here and has finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the last three races. During those three races, Busch is tops in average finish (2nd), average running position (4.5), fastest laps per race (33.3), and laps led (65.3).

While nothing has been announced at the time of writing, there is speculation about Kyle having to start at the back because of unapproved adjustments. I will post any updates on this in discord if and when they become available. As of now, he is a top play, but if he goes to the back I will reassess any potential changes to his status for this race fantasy-wise.

Alex Bowman ($9,000) [Proj. Ownership: 22%]

Starting Position: 14th

When the Cup Series was here last in 2020 Bowman was the winner and should be a contender again on Sunday. Bowman was top 5 in practice on Saturday in single lap times but he did not run a 10-lap stretch. Bowman had the fastest car in this race in 2020, but I don’t think that will be the case on Sunday. I view Bowman as a top 10 car with top 5 upside.

Ryan Blaney – $10,000 P6:

Blaney is someone I am just coming around on and while he didn’t show a ton of speed in practice he does project at low ownership (around 20%) and is capable of winning. Blaney is a GPP play because of the potential downside. In 2020 they had a tire vibration that caused them to pit late while running near the front and they were not able to recover. Blaney is a dark horse candidate to win this race, but could also finish in the high teens. He is definitely a high-risk high-reward type of play on Sunday.

Other Options: Denny Hamlin ($10,700 – P4), Chase Elliott ($11,100 – P8), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,800 – P12)

NASCAR DFS: Mid Tier ($7K – $8.9K)

Christopher Bell ($8,000) [ Proj. Ownership: 28%]

Starting Position: 19th

Bell was another one of the drivers that went for a spin in practice on Saturday but he managed to save his car from damage and will not need to go to his backup. Before he went around, Bell did run the 5th best 10-lap average lap as well as the 9th fastest single lap. Bell had some success at high tire wear tracks in 2021, and I see him as a low teens driver with top 10 upside. This is purely a salary and ownership play because other drivers may project for more points in this tier but they will be more popular and their upside is capped.

Bubba Wallace ($7,000) [Proj. Ownership: 43%]

Starting Position: 34th

Wallace finished 2nd last week at his best track type, but this week when I did not plan on using him he ends up not getting to put a qualifying lap down and makes himself playable. Wallace spun out in practice (because who didn’t?!) and had damage that sent him to the garage which disqualified him from qualifying. In that practice session, Wallace did have the 7th fastest lap before his spin. I know he will be high owned, but the upside here of a top 15 makes it hard to fade Wallace especially if you play the lower owned drivers listed above.

Aric Almirola ($7,400) [Proj. Ownership: 37%]

Starting Position: 31st

Another driver and another one who took a spin in practice. It’s going to be impossible to fit all of these drivers starting at the back in, but Almirola might be among the best options. We know the Fords have dominated early on this season and being back there with a teammate in Kevin Harvick to work with as they work through that field will help Almirola. In his three races at Auto Club, Almirola is yet to finish lower than 12th in any race.

Other Options: Brad Keselowski ($8,600 – P9), Ross Chastain ($8,200 – P33), Tyler Reddick ($8,400 – P11)

NASCAR DFS: Value Tier Rankings

Justin Haley ($6,500) – P35: Haley was another driver who didn’t get to qualify. No driver in this tier that has the potential to have a great positive place differential.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,200) – P17: Stenhouse will have almost no ownership (around 10%) but had a car that had top 5 long run speed. This care has top 10 upside
Cole Custer ($5,900) – P21: Custer dominated the Xfinity race on Saturday and should be in contention for a top 15 on Sunday.
Todd Gilliland ($5,300) – P26: Limited upside here, but is the best in the ow $5K range if you are in need of salary relief.
Michael McDowell ($5,700) – P23: McDowell has top 15 speed in practice and should be a top 20 car on Sunday.
Erik Jones ($6,400) – P2: This is a risky play, but Jones and Ty Dillon were both fast in practice and at his salary if Jones can finish around the top 10 he could make value at 5% ownership.

Thank you for reading my weekly NASCAR DFS Pit Stop articles and make sure you head to the Win Daily Sports Discord for up-to-date info and help directly from our pros! Head over to Twitter and give the @WinDailySports account and me (@MVecchio81) a follow for all things Fantasy Sports! You can find more NASCAR content over at WinDailySports.com!

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