Tag:

Monkey Knife Fight

DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 7/12

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

We finally get some baseball after a four-day break and I simply can’t contain my excitement to play some DFS. Getting right back into it with pitching is all I could ask for and we have a fascinating slate ahead of us here. With this being the first day back after the break, there are some funky things happening. There’s still a handful of pitchers who haven’t even been announced yet and it appears many managers aren’t even re-setting their rotations. That’s why this article is full of value plays and it’s time to get right back into the grind!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Cash Game Pitcher of the Day

Caleb Smith, MIA vs. NYM

DK ($8,600) FD ($8,000)

I rarely recommend a guy below $10,000 as the cash game pitcher of the day but it’s hard to ignore Smith’s floor in a matchup like this. What gives him such a nice floor is his K upside, with Smith recording at least six Ks in 11 of his 13 starts while pitching at least five innings in 12 of those fixtures. That has led to him scoring at least 30 FanDuel points in all 11 of those games, which is an incredible mark from a player barely cracking $8,000.

The Mets are not a matchup we need to worry about either, with New York ranking 18th in runs scored, 17th in K rate and middle of the pack in wOBA and xwOBA. An average offense like that will likely struggle in Marlins Park, which ranks as the best pitcher’s park in the Majors. That’s why Smith is pitching to a 1.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP at home this season while providing an 11.9 K/9 rate.

GPP Pitchers

Mike Fiers, OAK vs. CWS

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,400)

Fiers has seen a major increase in price over recent weeks and it’s easy to see why. Not only has Fiers allowed three runs or fewer in 13 straight starts, he’s actually pitching to a 2.11 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his last 11 starts. That’s simply elite production and it’s clear that he’s thriving in a pitcher’s haven like Oakland Coliseum. While his strikeouts have been lacking in that span, facing a White Sox team that ranks 23^rd in K rate adds to his intrigue. That’s not the only way they struggle, with Chicago sitting 25^th in runs scored and 22^nd in wOBA. Fiers is also projected to enter this game as a –190 favorite.

Yonny Chirinos, TB at BAL

DK ($8,400) FD ($6,800)

When is Chirinos going to get the respect he deserves? This $6,800 price tag on FanDuel is downright insulting, as he should be above $8,000 on both sites. The Tampa Bay righty is currently pitching to a 3.15 ERA and 0.99 WHIP so far this season. Those are All-Star numbers, as Chirinos has only allowed more than four runs once all season. Four runs seem like a tough task for an offense like the Orioles too, with Baltimore ranking 21^st in K rate, 26^th in runs scored, 27^th in OPS and 29^th in xwOBA. In two starts against the Orioles this season, Chirinos has completed 12.1 innings while allowing just three runs and 10 baserunners. Vegas agrees, making the Rays a –155 favorite in this matchup.

Danny Duffy, KC vs. DET

DK ($6,800) FD ($7,900)

This will undoubtedly cause some controversy in our Slack discussion for Gold members because our staff has been split on this guy all season long. I’ve been somewhere in the middle but he’s tough to fade in a matchup like this. The simple fact is, Duffy is a league-average pitcher in a supreme matchup. That automatically puts him in play at this sort of price because the Tigers are the worst offense in baseball.

In fact, the Motor City Kitties currently rank last in both runs scored and OBP while sitting 29^th in both K rate and wOBA. Duffy has been solid this season too if you take out a game at Texas and versus Boston, with the southpaw pitching to a 3.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over his other 11 starts. That’s fine for a guy facing such a bad offense, with Duffy entering this game as a –150 favorite.

Cheap Pitcher of the Day

Chase Anderson, MIL vs. SF

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,500)

This price is simply too cheap for someone with so much in his favor. The biggest variable for Anderson is this matchup, with the Giants ranking 27^th in runs scored, 28th in OBP and 29^th in OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. That’s a recipe for anyone to succeed, especially a solid pitcher like Anderson. The Milwaukee righty is pitching to a 3.54 ERA and 1.17 WHIP dating back to 2017, despite being inconsistent this season. Anyone with that sort of potential is definitely worth a shot, particularly against a putrid offense like this. That doesn’t even take into consideration that Anderson enters this game as a –190 favorite.

Also, don’t overlook Dinelson Lamet on FanDuel. The Padres righty has always been good when healthy and his $5,600 price tag on FD makes no sense. What makes it even more bizarre is the fact that he’s the third-highest priced pitcher on DraftKings at $9,800. Any time you see a $4,200 difference, you have to consider him on the cheaper site.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Caleb Smith/Jason Vargas Over 10.5 Combined Strikeouts

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

You know we already love Smith with his write-up in our cash game section but Vargas hasn’t been shabby himself. In fact, the Mets lefty is pitching to a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last 12 starts and gets to face a Marlins offense who ranks last in wOBA, runs scored and OPS. That should make it a relatively easy task for these guys to combine for 11 Ks.

5 years ago 0 comment

Using Las Vegas Lines for DFS Purposes

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

It’s imperative to use Las Vegas lines and totals to improve your DFS play. The simple fact is, Vegas is the best predictor of an outcome. That’s strange to say about a city where plenty of bad decisions are made but there’s a reason those casinos are so tall. These bookmakers take advantage of stupid people and almost always set sharp lines. That’s why we need to use these tools, as it will make our DFS research much easier.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

What Las Vegas Lines Should I Use?

There are so many sportsbooks out there these days,where you can find pretty much anything to bet on. Hell, you can bet on the length of the National Anthem at some big games. While these are generally tough things to bet on, it makes our jobs as DFS players so much easier. So, let’s go over the different types of odds available.

Game Lines/Spreads

This is the simplest way of betting, as it pairs one opponent against another. It’s much easier to understand for football and basketball because there’s a point-spread, but baseball is a little more complicated. Instead of spreads, we have money lines. This is simply how likely a team is to win based on their odds.

For example, if the Dodgers are a –180 favorite against the Rockies, that means Colorado should be a +180 underdog. That means you’ll make $18 for every $10 bet on the Rockies and about $6 for every $10 bet on the Dodgers. It’s not quite that simple because of the vig but that’s a simple way to break it down. The vig is simply the rake that the sportsbook takes because they need to make money, so it will never be a completely even +180 and –180 like that. More often, it will be something like –190 and +170, guaranteeing the book a long-term profit.

Run-Line Spreads

There are run-line spreads in baseball but it’s almost always 1.5 runs. This means that your team needs to win by more than one run and you’re more than likely going to get plus odds in this circumstance. This may all sound complicated to a novice DFS player but the most important thing is to understand what these odds mean. The higher the favorite, the better odds you have at a win for your pitcher!

Totals

Totals are the most important factor to consider for DFS purposes because this is the best predictor of how many runs will be scored in a game. It’s almost always a total somewhere between 6 and 12, as this will tell you what type of game we’re looking at. Ballparks and pitchers are the biggest variables in totals and it’s a great indicator on what a game will look like.

For example, a game in Coors Field (Colorado Rockies) usually has a total in the 11-12 range while a game in Oracle Park (San Francisco Giants) will usually have a total in the 7-8 range. These ballparks play very differently and Vegas is telling you that by these totals. Some totals will be impacted by the wind, too. I actually saw a Chicago Cubs game one time with a total of 14 because there were 40 MPH winds spraying straight to center field. I actually bet the under in that game because it was an outlier total and I was fortunate to win that wager. The most important thing about totals is to know what they are. Fade batters in low total games and stack batters in high total ones while fading pitchers in high total games and using them in low ones. Its that simple sometimes.

Individual Team Totals

This is totals broken down by individual teams, as it will simply use an algorithm to calculate a team total based on the run line and total of that game. For example, if you’re looking at a total of nine with a team as a –150 favorite, then the favorite will have an implied team total of 5 while the underdog will have an implied team total of 4. It’s not quite that simple but it will almost always calculate to something close to that. Sometimes you’ll see a team total sitting around 3.5 against an elite pitcher like Max Scherzer or a total of 6.5 against a crappy pitcher in Coors Field. These are things that every experienced DFS player understands but it’s something you have to monitor before submitting lineups.

Props

We love Monkey Knife Fight and that’s a great source for setting DFS lineups. They have a ton of props available that will give you an idea of how they expect players to perform and they’re usually very accurate. They actually get their projections from RotoWire and I know for a fact that they do their due diligence over there to set competitive lines. There’s also prop picks available on numerous sportsbooks and those can also tell you how a player will perform. Whether it’s a strikeout over/under, total base pick or odds for a home run, these sorts of lines can give you a better idea of how to predict how a player will perform on that day and in that matchup.

Why Should I Trust Them?

It’s tough to trust anything that’s not your own but Las Vegas lines and props are the best indicators of what’s going to happen. It’s been like that since they opened up decades ago and anyone who’s had a bad beat can tell you just how close these lines typically are. There are so many projection systems and algorithms out there nowadays, that it’s imperative to use them to your advantage. Trusting anything in Vegas is dangerous but these lines are probably the most honest thing you’ll find in the Sin City.

Featured Image by pburka

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching/MKF Picks 7/7- Ace Right-Hander Nola

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

The last Sunday of MLB’s first half is upon us and we have one of the hottest pitchers toeing the rubber in Phillie ace right-hander Aaron Nola. There is a full slate of 15 games on the DFS schedule so lets jump into it.

Upper-Tier Ace Arms

Aaron Nola, Phillies at Mets ($9,700 FD, $10,600 DK): A cash-game consideration on FD on with that price while probably only a GPP play on DK in the DFS world. The Phillie ace right-hander is red-hot right now. He has allowed just one earned run in 23 innings over his last three starts, striking out 28 and walking five. The ace right-hander has breathed life into a generally ho-hum ballclub as they enter the second half. Pitching against the hapless Mets is a good matchup to see if the right-hander has truly taken a step up to the next level.

Patrick Corbin, Royals at Nationals ($10,500 FD, $10,900 DK): The prices on the sites scare me off of DFS cash-games and make him GPP-only for me. Corbin will end the first half for the Nationals. He is coming off an emotional, rain-filled appearance in his last start following the death of his friend, Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs. He threw seven innings of one-run ball with 7 K’s while wearing Skaggs’ jersey as a tribute. Following ace right-hander Max Scherzer’s gem on Saturday will be a tough act to follow, but the change of pace may keep the Royal batters off-balance.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Middle-Tier Arms

David Price, Red Sox at Tigers ($9,100 FD, $9,800 DK): A strong DFS cash-game choice given his high floor. Price will try to send the Red Sox off into the All-Star game break on a high note. Price has been pitching well for the Red Sox, being a much needed innings eater, going six innings or more in five of his last seven starts. Going against a weak Tiger lineup should play into Price’s strengths. The veteran lefty walked a season-high four batters in his most recent start in Toronto, but still made the right pitches at the right times to earn his sixth win of the season.

Dallas Keuchel, Marlins at Braves ($7,300 FD, $8,600 DK): Another DFS cash-game option, especially on FD because of his deep discount. Keuchel is getting stretched out, going seven innings in his last start against Philadelphia. Keuchel has steadily improved as he’s progressed through his first three appearance of 2019. He showed better command of his changeup and slider in his last start.

Bargain-Basement Arm

Tyler Mahle, Indians at Reds ($7,000 FD, $7,800 DK): Coming off an excellent start to his last appearance against the Brewers, Mahle looks to keep improving. Likely the second best pitcher on the Reds staff behind only ace right-hander Luis Castillo, Mahle faces the Indians. He pitched into the seventh inning, lasting 95 pitches against the Brewers on Monday. Mahle gave up a leadoff homer and then was excellent until a late rally spoiled his outing in an 8-6 Reds loss. He hopes to earn the trust again to stay out late in the game again.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Nola has reached this total in each of his last three starts with eight, 10 and 10 strikeouts respectively. Look for him to make it each of his last four starts.

THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS!

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 7/5

Ethan Thiel 5 years ago

written by Ethan Thiel

This will be my final DFS pitching article of the first half and it’s been a great first few months of the season. That’s evident by the fact that I’ve hit 13 of my last 21 MKF recommendations, despite losing my last two. So it’s time to bounce-back and start a new hot streak and I really feel like these pitchers will get us right back on track.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

DFS Cash Game Pitchers

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. LAA

DK ($12,000) FD ($11,000)

Is there any question that Verlander is the safest pitching option on the board? This Hall-of-Fame stud is in the midst of yet another brilliant season, pitching to a 2.86 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. That doesn’t even take into consideration his 34 percent K rate since the beginning of last season, as he’s clearly taking advantage of this swing-happy environment. Facing the Angels is a bit scary in terms of their elite K rate but their most potent bats happen to be righties like Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Albert Pujols. The only lefty bats that are scary are Tommy La Stella and Shohei Ohtani and La Stella just broke his leg.

JV has rolled through this lineup throughout his career too, generating a 3.10 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 26 starts against them while striking out more than a batter per inning. It’s also hard to argue with the fact that he enters this matchup as a –200 favorite.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. SD

DK ($10,700) FD ($10,200)

We rarely go with two cash game pitchers but both of these guys are fantastic options. Kershaw may actually be the most dependable player on the slate, as he’s established a ridiculous floor. In fact, Kershaw has at least 26 FanDuel points in all but one start this season, throwing at least six innings in all 14 starts. That’s an incredible floor and it’s really a cash game dream. It’s not empty innings either, with Kershaw pitching to a 3.23 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while striking out nearly a batter per inning.

Those trends paired with this superb matchup makes him tough to fade in cash games, with the Padres ranking 27^th in K rate, 25^th in OBP and 24^th in xwOBA. If you look up ownership in the dictionary, you’ll see a picture of Kershaw standing over the Padres’ limp bodies. The Dodgers lefty is pitching to a 2.02 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 36 starts against them while posting a K rate just shy of 30 percent.

DFS GPP Pitchers

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS at DET

DK ($8,700) FD ($8,100)

I always include the pitcher facing the Tigers because they’re simply the worst offense in baseball. That’s evident by the fact that they rank 28^th in xwOBA, last in wOBA and 29^th in OPS, K rate and runs scored. That says a lot about the Motor City Kitties and they’ll likely enter this game very tired after playing three games in the last two days. Getting a superb matchup is all we can ask for with an inconsistent pitcher like E-Rod, as he’s got the capability to shut down any offense when he’s clicking.

We’re talking about a guy with a 4.23 career ERA and 4.01 FIP, which pairs beautifully with his 25 percent K rate since 2017. His one start against Detroit was a raving success this season too, allowing just one run across six innings while whiffing seven batters en route to 46 FanDuel points. Not to mention, Rodriguez enters this game as a projected –180 favorite.

Dylan Bundy, BAL at TOR

DK ($8,100) FD ($7,600)

Alright, this one truly scares me to death but Bundy is the definition of a GPP pitcher. This is one of few guys who can record double-digit Ks and a major reason for that is because of this matchup. The Blue Jays currently rank 26^th in wOBA, 21^st in runs scored, 27^th in OPS and 22^nd in K rate. Those ugly strikeout numbers are what really makes Bundy an enticing option, with the Baltimore righty posting a 24.5 percent K rate since last season. He showed that sort of upside in his last game against Toronto, allowing two earned runs across 6.2 innings while striking out 11 Blue Jays. There’s also just as good of a chance that Bundy will get blown up across three innings though, so understand the risk before playing him.

DFS Cheap Pitchers of the Day

Julio Teheran, ATL vs. MIA

DK ($6,600) FD ($7,500)

Recent results will not make you want to use Teheran but this guy was special for the first two months of the year. In fact, Teheran pitched to a 2.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his first 15 starts which actually included two gems against these Marlins. In those two games, Teheran pitched 12 scoreless innings while allowing just seven baserunners. That’s really no surprise when you consider the fact that the Marlins rank last in wOBA, runs scored and OPS. That’s why Teheran enters this game as a –200 favorite, which is all you can ask for from a guy this cheap in such a stellar matchup.

Austin Voth, WSH vs. KC

DK ($7,700) FD ($6,400)

This is certainly a risky DFS play but there are things to like about Voth. The first thing is his form, with the Nationals righty pitching to a 4.35 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his first two starts. He also has 10 Ks across 10.1 innings and those are very good numbers from such a cheap player. It’s no fluke either, with Voth posting a 3.84 FIP at Triple-A since the beginning of last season. What really makes him attractive is this matchup, though, with the Royals ranking 23^rd in runs scored, 24^th in OPS, 27^th in xSLG and 25^th in both wOBA and xwOBA. Vegas likes Voth too, with Washington entering this game as a –190 favorite.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Zack Greinke Over 5.5 Strikeouts

It’s very rare that I don’t use someone from my DFS write-ups but this prop really made my eyes light up when I saw it. We’re talking about a pitcher with a 2.90 ERA and 0.94 WHIP facing a Rockies offense that ranks dead-last in road OPS. That doesn’t even take into consideration that Greinke has a 24 percent K rate since 2016 while facing a Colorado team that ranks 25th in K rate this season.

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Hitting and Monkey Knife Picks: Independence Day Bats

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

A strange day for this Independence Day with the DFS contests split up at unusual times and games. And not every team is playing on this holiday? How does that happen? Well I guess Independence Day falling on a Thursday gives MLB some leeway as teams travel to get ready for the upcoming weekend series that start tomorrow.

Catcher:

Jason Castro, Twins at Athletics ($2,600 FD, $3,800 DK): One of the keys to the Twins’ fine season is how well their catchers have hit. At times this season, the Twins have seen three really good hitting catchers on their roster in Castro, Mitch Garver and Willians Astudillo. The first two names in this threesome have hit so well that the third player has spent much of the year in the minors even though he has performed well when asked to.

Back to today’s match-up, Garver played last night so Castro is likely to see his name on the scoresheet today. On the season, Castro has 10 HRs in 111 ABS vs righties and has an OPS of .934. In other words, he is an elite hitter against righties. Castro faces rookie Athletics right-hander Tanner Anderson who is really struggling right now.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

DFS First Base

Justin Smoak, Red Sox at Blue Jays ($2,700 FD, $3,900 DK): Both players chosen so far are extremely affordable to let us pay up for arms and big bats in smash spots. Smoak gets spot-starter Hector Velazquez of the Red Sox and gets to take his cuts against him from his strong side of the plate. For the season, Smoak’s OPS is .904 vs righties and only .572 vs lefties. With Velasquez not expected to go too long in the game and with the dearth of lefties in Boston’s bullpens, he will likely swing the bat as a lefty all game.

DFS Second Base

Gleyber Torres, Yankees at Rays ($3,600 FD, $4,900 DK): The Rays have a great pitching staff and their starter today (Chirinos) has been effective all season. So why do I like Torres today? First of all, he is an extremely talented player on the best hitting team in the majors. Secondly, his road splits are incredible, with a .999 OPS as compared to .782 at home.

Thirdly, someone standing up for him vocally might give him an extra spark. Yankee manager Aaron Boone backed his star player and blasted the A.L. for leaving Torres off the All-Star roster here. A particularly strong quote from Boone: “I think it’s a joke he’s not on that team. Gleyber Torres, not an All-Star? You can kick rocks on that one. That’s ridiculous.” Torres is red-hot, with hits in 12 of his last 13 games and multiple hits in three of his past five games.

DFS Shortstop

Jorge Polanco, Twins at Athletics ($3,700 FD, $4,500 DK): For DFS roster construction, having multiple Twins is probably a good idea. As mentioned before about Jason Castro, Tanner Anderson is struggling. So use Polanco, who has hit in six straight games and 15 out of 16. For the season, Polanco has a terrific OPS of .974 against righties.

DFS Third Base

D.J. LeMahieu, Yankees at Rays ($4,300 FD, $5,400 DK): Here is one of my “big bats to pay up for” written about previously. With as much talent as the Bronx Bombers have, this scrappy player is likely their MVP to-date. He just has hit the ball so consistently well all season long. LeMathieu is particularly hot right now, with multiple hit games in seven of his last eight. If the Yankees do damage in St. Petersburg late this afternoon and evening (which I think they will), LeMahieu will likely be a huge part of the fireworks.

DFS Outfield

Let’s go with one more Twins bat in Max Kepler ($3,700 FD, $4,600 DK). This German-born lefty hits righties very well and will likely bat leadoff. His OPS against right-handers is .915.

An old DFS saying of mine, well just for the past season, is to use Joey Gallo ($4,200 FD, $5,700 DK) at home against mediocre or young right-handed pitchers. The scheduled days off for pitchers for both teams is out of whack due to the tragic passing away of Tyler Skaggs. Griffin Canning starts for the Angels in a hot Globe Life Park where the ball will carry very well.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3,700 FD, $5,500 DK): You may say to yourself, that is expensive for him! Well, this guy is red-hot and faces the uncertain pitching situation of the Red Sox. Since June 20th, Gurriel Jr. has hit 7 HRs, which may have something to do with batting third in the order behind Valdimir Guerrero Jr. Lourdes has Expected Slugging and Hard Hit rates that both rank in the 87th percentile or better on the season. To make a long story short, these power numbers are not a fluke, folks.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Max Kepler/Jorge Polanco/Jason Castro Hits on the Day

Feeling safe? Go for double your $ and the trio combine for five or more hits. Risky? Put a 5X next to your money if they combine for seven or more hits. As you can tell in my writing, I like the Twins bats alot today!

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching/Monkey Knife Fight Picks: Max Effort

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

it is a 14 game schedule for this last Sunday in June as the Red Sox “host” the Yankees across the pond at 10 am. Will today’s ace (Max Scherzer) disappoint like last night’s (Justin Verlander) did? The odds say no, but also Coors will likely have more than eight runs scored. Something has to give when it comes to designing your DFS lineups today. It is going to be very difficult to make a choice between spending on Max and spending on Coors bats. And we have other aces to chose from as well!

Upper-Tier DFS Arms

Max Scherzer, Nationals at Tigers ($12,500 FD, $12,300 DK): This just might be the highest price tags on a player/pitcher that you will see this year. So it comes down to this: do you pay up for Scherzer and require an ace start out of him (anything less and your day is likely done)? Or do you find a more affordable arm and try to get some big Coors bat in? Decisions, decisions today for sure! What makes this start for Max even more interesting is Scherzer hasn’t started at Comerica Park since joining the Nationals in 2015. The last time this ace faced his former team was his 20-strikeout game in ’16. Scherzer is 5-0 with a 0.97 ERA with three straight double-digit strikeout starts in the month of June. Scherzer certainly has to be in your cash-game consideration.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Gerrit Cole, Mariners at Astros ($11,200 FD, $11,900 DK): This is not much of a discount today for sure! The last time Cole and Scherzer pitched on the same day, I chose to take the discount with Cole and spent up a bit for bats. That really did not work out for me. And I do not think that works out for you today either. Obviously, he is in play every time he takes the mound but today I am considering him GPP-only. Cole has posted a quality start in each of his past six games, with a 2.19 ERA and 51 strikeouts in 37 innings in that span. He has pitched great recently, coming off a stretch where he has allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. He already has 151 strikeouts on the season and 300 is not an impossibility.

Middle-Tier DFS Arms

Blake Snell, Rangers at Rays ($8,500 FD, $8,000 DK): Oh how the mighty have fallen. Look at that price on DK, talk about savings. He is obviously a GPP-only choice here with how the results have been recently. But the upside is still there. Advanced statistics (K%: 31.6% in ’18, 31.7% this season, xFIP: .316 in ’18 vs. 3.20 in ’19) tell us that Snell is no different than he was last year. Our eyes tell us something else. He is not a choice for the faint of heart (or cash-game players).

Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks at Giants ($9,600 FD, $10,000 DK): It is debatable as to whether he should be considered middle-tier or upper-tier, Ray is beginning to pitch like a potential ace. Ray has nine punch-outs in each of his last two starts and it seems a 15 K game is just around the corner. He has good history against both the Giants and at this park, going 5-1 with a 3.01 ERA in 13 career starts, including 4-1 with a 2.34 ERA in six outings at Oracle Park. Even through his struggles earlier in the year, Ray has remained consistently able to throw strike three. He’s averaging 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings, 0.3 short of his NL-leading average from 2017.

Bargain Basement DFS Arm

Andrew Heaney, Athletics at Angels ($7,400 FD, $7,500 DK): When you look at cheap pitchers, you at least want some upside. And the easiest way to fantasy points are strikeouts. And with Heaney, we have a cheap pitcher with strikeout potential, with 36 strikeouts in 30.2 innings pitched on the year. It is an afternoon game in Anaheim, so the shadows and bright sunshine can make the ball more difficult to pick up from the batters’ perspective and this could give Heaney an edge.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy over 1.5 HRs

The old saying is scared money does not make money. So let’s go back to where some people may be scared away from today, Coors Field. With only eight runs scored there last night. some people got burned there (I did! I did!) 90 degrees in the middle of the day with very little wind? Sounds like a good recipe for HRs. Oh, did I mention someone named Chi-Chi is pitching for the Rockies? I thought he was a golfer from the 80s.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 6/28

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

This is my favorite article of the week and I can’t tell you just how much I love writing about pitching in DFS. This really feels like my forte and it’s evident by my Monkey Knife Fight results. Over my last 19 suggestions, I’m currently 13-6. We have another pick for you today and we’re going to look to keep the ball rolling.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Cash Game Pitcher of the Day

Jose Berrios, MIN at CWS

DK ($10,800) FD ($10,500)

Berrios is the definition of a cash game play, as he’s truly developed into a guy with an extremely high floor. That’s evident by the fact that he’s pitched at least 5.2 innings in all but one start this season while scoring at least 27 FD points all but twice. Consistency is all you can ask for from your cash game pitcher and that’s this dude’s middle name. Berrios comes into this matchup rolling too, pitching to a 1.98 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last six starts. Facing Chicago is a treat as well, with the White Sox ranked 24^th in K rate, 25^th in runs scored and 23^rd in wOBA.

Top-Tier Pitchers

Mike Clevinger, CLE at BAL

DK ($9,600) FD ($9,400)

Clevinger was slightly disappointing in his return from the IL but it’s hard to argue with this guy’s numbers. Dating back to last season, Clevinger is providing a 2.99 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. What’s really impressive about him is the fact that he’s recorded 29 Ks across 16.2 innings this season, which is simply one of the best rates in the Majors. Getting to face Baltimore should only help those gaudy numbers, with the Orioles sitting 19^th in K rate, 26^th in wOBA, 27^th in runs scored and last in xwOBA. Look for this guy to become a five-figure player on both of these DFS sites before you know it.

Merrill Kelly, ARI at SF

DK ($9,100) FD ($8,600)

Even these numbers surprised me from Kelly, as he’s been superb throughout the month. Aside from one dud against the Rockies, Kelly has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. Even with that one stinker, Kelly is still pitching to a 2.36 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over his last five games, striking out 32 batters across 34 innings of action. That form would make him intriguing pretty much anywhere but getting to pitch in San Francisco is simply amazing for DFS purposes. Not only is Oracle Park arguably the best pitcher’s park in the Majors, the Giants currently rank 27^th in xwOBA, 28^th in runs scored and 29^th in both wOBA and OPS.

Cheap Pitchers

Anibal Sanchez, ATL at DET

DK ($7,400) FD ($8,400)

This is more about playing against Detroit than it is about Sanchez. This team is simply the best matchup in baseball right now and it’s worth throwing out any pitcher against them. That’s evident by the fact that the Tigers rank 26^th in OPS, 28^th in OPS, 29^th in wOBA and last in both runs scored and K rate. That says a lot about the Motor City Kitties, as their roar has really turned into more of a purr. Sanchez has actually been really solid the last two years too, pitching to a 3.24 ERA and 1.17 WHIP since the beginning of last season.

Vince Velasquez, PHI at MIA

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,300)

This is one guy I can never seemingly get right for DFS but I’ve absolutely loved him ever since he pitched a complete game shutout against the Padres, striking out 16 batters a few years back. The stuff this guy possesses is absolutely filthy and it’s just a matter of time before he finds some consistency. Facing Miami is a good way to kick start a hot stretch, with the Marlins ranking 18^th in K rate, 29^th in wOBA and last in OPS, xwOBA and runs scored. Getting to pitch in Marlins Park is huge too, with that ballpark ranking as the best pitcher’s parks in the Majors. That was crystal clear when Velasquez allowed just one hit against Miami in his most recent start on June 22.

Fade of the Day

Hyun Jin-Ryu, LAD at COL

DK ($8,900) FD ($8,500)

I rarely do this but it’s something that needs to be said. People will look at Ryu’s ridiculous 1.27 ERA and 0.84 WHIP and automatically click the + next to his name but that’d be a big mistake. It’s no doubt that this guy has been nails all season long but this is not a spot to succeed at this price for DFS purposes.

Pitching at Coors Field is an absolute nightmare, especially for a contact pitcher. The 1.612 park factor for Coors Field is half a run higher than anywhere else in baseball, as that park has surrendered the most runs in the league by a significant margin. That’s really no surprise considering its history and that’s a scary thought for a guy with a 22 percent career K rate and a SIERA due for some negative regression. Ryu has never pitched well at Coors either, pitching to a 7.56 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in four starts there.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Our MKF plays have been absolutely killing it recently and it’s truly become our favorite DFS site. A 13-6 record speaks for itself but there’s really only one pick I like today.

Mike Clevinger Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

This is really the only play that caught my eye, as Clevinger has a decent chance at reaching double-digit Ks. Not only does he face a Baltimore team who ranks 19th in K rate and last in xwOBA, Clevinger is also one of the league leaders with a 47 percent K rate. That number is bloated because of a small sample size but his 26.3 percent K rate between 2017-18 is impressive nonetheless.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Hitting/Monkey Knife Fight Picks- Dodgers and Rockies in Coors

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

It’s a strange Thursday DFS slate with 10 games, but at least there is a Coors game between the Dodgers and the Rockies! Two of the most well-known teams in MLB in the Yankees and the Red Sox are traveling (or have already arrived at this point) to London, England in preparation for a historic, two-game series in one of the most prestigious cities in the world. Temperatures are going to be hot in Coors so the ball will carry even better than normal.

First Basemen

Joc Pederson, FanDuel Only ($4,100): For whatever reason, FanDuel has Joc Pederson as a First Baseman at Coors Field as the Dodgers visit the Rockies. Well isn’t that convenient ladies and gentlemen! He will be batting leadoff for the Dodgers, and with warm temperatures at Coors, expect the ball to carry well. Obviously, he is in his correct position on DraftKings so on that site let’s go with his Dodgers teammate Max Muncy ($5,600 DK). Both players are notorious righty mashers with 20 and 11 HRs, respectively, on the season. By the way, Muncy is listed as a second basemen on FanDuel. Peter Lambert has been blasted in his first two career starts at Coors so we can expect the same in this start.

Second Basemen

Luis Arraez, Rays at Twins ($2,600 FD, $3,500 DK): In only 17 games, Arraez is hitting .436 on 17 hits in 39 ABs with three doubles, eight walks, eight runs scored, four RBIs and a home run. To be able to afford some big bats from the Dodgers and Rockies game in Coors, you are going to need some bargains. Facing a likely bullpen game, this left-handed batter from Venezuela will likely start the game as long as a right-handed opens for the Rays.

Shortstop

Garrett Hampson, Dodgers at Rockies ($2,700 FD, $3,300 DK but listed as a 2B/OF): This top-prospect was recently recalled from the minors and seems ready this time. On Wednesday, Hampson went two for four with two runs, a double and a stolen base. With Brandon Rodgers joining Trevor Story on the IL, shortstop is Hampson’s position for the foreseeable future. The only issue the Rockies face tonight is ace right-handed Walker Buehler of the Dodgers.

Third Basemen

Justin Turner, Dodgers at Rockies ($3,900 FD,$4,900 DK): Dodgers third baseman Turner is a reverse-splits guy, meaning he hits righties better than lefties even though he himself is a right-handed batter. Turner’s batting average and OPS against righties is considerably better than against lefties. Probably batting third in the order behind Pederson and Muncy, this Dodger stud will get plenty of opportunities to produce.

Outfielders

Dominic Smith, Mets at Phillies ($2,400 FD, $4,100 DK): Just pencil him in into your all-day FD lineup. Dominic is also first base eligible on DK to give you extra flexibility. There are fewer hotter bats in the league and the savings he gives you allows you to get those Coors bats you want. Smith has hit home runs in three consecutive games and reached base four times in last night’s game. With temperatures expected to be near 90 degrees for this afternoon game, expect the ball to be flying out of Citizens Bank Park.

Kyle Schwarber, Braves at Cubs ($3,200 FD, $3,600 DK): For as much power as Schwarber possesses, his price is extremely affordable. Throw in the fact that he will be playing in an afternoon game with temperatures in the 80s and against an unproven Braves starter in Bryse Wilson. His WHIP is over two in a tiny sample size, Schwarber could be in for a good game.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Monkey Knife Fight Play of the Night

What is not to like about Dodgers batters tonight? Go for the minimum total bases and make some $ or go all-in and go for the big prize. I really could not blame you either way. Follow me with Dodgers batters here tonight and get 100 percent bonus!

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The King’s DFS Pitching/Prop Plays: Follow Me To Framber

Scott Engel 5 years ago

written by Scott Engel

On the early slate, Chris Sale is certainly worth the $11,600 on DraftKings, and he could get his first home win this season against his former team. Sale did have a bumpy start his last time out, but he should rebound today. But you can save $1000 by going with Trevor Bauer at home against the Royals. Some DFS players may be skeptical a bit after he was hit hard by the Tigers his last time out. Bauer is definitely better on the road, but you have to like the opponent here. Bauer also pitches better in day games (1.82 ERA). Kansas City is 25th in team batting this month and on the road overall.

If you choose to play on the all day DFS slate, our CEO and DFS Pro Jason Mezrahi likes German Marquez at San Francisco for 10,000 on DK. Marquez is coming off a very strong outing against the Dodgers and he registered his first career shutout at Oracle Park earlier this season. He should also get quality run support from the Colorado lineup against Jeff Samardzija.

In one of the best matchups of the night, Mike Minor (11,000)opposes Matt Boyd (10,000). Both pitchers are worth strong DFS GPP consideration,but only one can win here and it could be a low-scoring duel that eliminatesboth as cash game plays. Boyd, however, is coming off two bumpy starts, so youcan lean to Minor here in tournaments, especially since he faces the weakerlineup.

Patrick Corbin is a top play at 10,600 at Miami in a pitcher’spark against one the most vulnerable lineups in MLB. He is the preferred DFScash game play on the night slate. Last time Corbin faced Miami in May, hedelivered a complete game shutout. Miami hitters who have faced him previouslyhave a composite .195 batting average against Corbin.

I have a strong gut feeling about Framber Valdez at a DFSprice of just 6900 at home against Pittsburgh. My gut is quite prominent, so Imay want to listen to it. I look like a lowercase letter b from the side view. Valdezhad two solid outings as a starter before getting hit hard at Yankee Stadiumlast week. He had 15 strikeouts and three earned runs in two previous startsagainst Toronto and Baltimore. I am going to use him as my second DK pitcher inDFS GPP play.

In the featured pitching matchup of the night, CharlieMorton (10,200) opposes Jake Odorizzi (9,500). I am not spending up for Morton againstthat Minnesota lineup. Odorizzi’s price is down after a pair of four-runoutings against Kansas City. That makes him a GPP DFS Play against Tampa Bay,21^st in team batting in June and is fifth in Ks this month. On thenight slate I would go with Odorizzi or Minor as my DFS GPP play along with Valdezas my SP2.

Monkey Knife Fight Play of the Night

I am going big on the Pittsburgh-Houston Over/Under tonight for 19x my buy-in. Framber Valdez will easily go over 4.5 Ks. Josh Bell is hitting .176 over the last week and is better vs. RHPs, so I will take the under on 1.5 Runs plus RBI. Starling Marte is hitting .167 over the past week and .238 vs. lefties, so I will take the under on 1.5 total bases. Dario Agrazi, who is making his second start after posting a 3,87 ERA in the minors, should be a good target for the Houston hitters. The Pittsburgh bullpen is also ranked 27^th. So over for me on 1.5 Hits plus Walks on Jose Altuve and 1.5 Total Bases for Alex Bregman, who starts to get back on track tonight. Our Joel Bartilotta has more on Bregman here. Follow my gut with Valdez here tonight and get 100 percent bonus!

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS: Top Hitters and Prop Picks for 6/25: Yankees, Braves, Cubs and Padres

wesley maxwell 5 years ago

written by wesley maxwell

Catcher

Gary Sanchez, TOR vs. NYY

DK ($5,600) FD ($4,400)

Well you are going to have to pay up for to “unleash the Kraken” today but it is difficult to argue that it won’t be worth it. The whole Yankee lineup is in play as the face a bad left-handed starter in Clayton Richard. For the season, Richard has given up five HRs in 25.1 innings with 29 hits and 21 earned runs allowed. Do me a favor please: if you are going to the Bronx to watch baseball tonight and have seats in the left-field bleachers, bring a glove.

First Base

Edwin Encarncion/Luke Voit, TOR at NYY

DK ($5,200) FD ($4,000) and DK ($4,800) ($3,700)

As you may or may not know, I am a die-hard Red Sox fan. I was born and raised (and lived the first 33 years of my life) in a small central Massachusetts town. One of the most memorable nights of my life was a certain October evening in 2004. Why am I saying this? Because I have to hand it to the Yankees. This lineup they have assembled maybe the best of recent MLB history. So deep and powerful, especially against lefties. So, it is tough to pick just one of this duo tonight against Clayton Richard.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Second Base

Hanser Alberto, SD at BAL

DK ($3,400) FD ($2,500)

We are going to need to get some savings so why not get a guy who will likely be batting leadoff in an extreme hitter’s park? Against lefties, and the Padres are throwing out a southpaw in rookie Logan Allen, Alberto has been incredible. 41 hits in only 101 official ABs, that is over .400 folks!!, with 11 runs scored, 11 RBI and two stolen bases. Pair him with another Oriole like Mancini or Nunez and pocket the savings.

Third Base

Renato Nunez, SD at BAL

DK ($3,700) FD ($2,600)

This is strange as Nunez is listed as a first baseman on DK. Having him with third baseman eligibility like he has on FD would have been very nice! Anyways, this guy is a lefty masher in 2019. He has eight HRs in exactly 100 official ABs against lefties this season. He will most likely be slotted into the cleanup spot. Did I mention that Oriole Park at Camden Yards is an extreme hitter’s park?

Shortstop

Manny Machado/Fernando Tatis Jr., SD at BAL

DK ($5,500) FD ($3,900) DK($5,700) FD($3,800)

Let us stay in the comfy confines of Camden Yards. The Orioles pitching staff is historically bad, giving up by far the most HRs in all of MLB this year. Again, position eligibility weirdness caused me to both of these Padre righties in this column. On DK, both of these players are eligible at SS. On FD, Machado is a third baseman. In either case, these players are in smash spots today, with the Orioles planning to use Jimmy Yacobonis (who has a 4.70 ERA and 1.44 WHIP on the season) and then possibly going with lefty bullpen arm Josh Rodgers (8.25 ERA and 1.50 WHIP) as the primary pitcher. I do not know about you, but to me this sounds like a potential disaster for Baltimore.

Outfield

Ronald Acuna Jr, ATL at CHC

DK ($5,000) FD ($4,200)

Acuna’s price went down by $100 on FD while going up by $200 on DK. What is the icons to give me a shrugging shoulders? Wrigley Field, though mildly disappointing last night, will see similar weather with a nice breeze blowing out to right. This should give lefty bats and right-handed bats with opposite field power a boost. The latter description screams Javier Baez but in reality Acuna Jr. should not be far behind when it comes to that.

Giancarlo Stanton, TOR at NYY

DK ($4,600) FD ($4,200)

Stanton hit his first HR of 2019 last night. With all this mashing that the Yankees have done this season, let that sink in. If Judge and Stanton get it going…watch out. Anyways, Stanton against a struggling lefty, yes please.

Aaron Judge, TOR at NYY

DK ($4,700) FD ($4,300)

Stanton hit his first HR last night….Judge gets his first one since returning from injury tonight.

M onkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day

Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton Over 12.5 Total Bases

Let’s go for broke tonight and a big prize. I like two, if not all three, players to hit a HR tonight.

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

5 years ago 0 comment

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Monkey Knife Fight

Cash Game Pitcher of the Day

GPP Pitchers

Cheap Pitcher of the Day

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

What Las Vegas Lines Should I Use?

Game Lines/Spreads

Run-Line Spreads

Totals

Individual Team Totals

Props

Why Should I Trust Them?

Upper-Tier Ace Arms

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Middle-Tier Arms

Bargain-Basement Arm

DFS Cash Game Pitchers

DFS GPP Pitchers

DFS Cheap Pitchers of the Day

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

DFS First Base

DFS Second Base

DFS Shortstop

DFS Third Base

DFS Outfield

Upper-Tier DFS Arms

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Middle-Tier DFS Arms

Bargain Basement DFS Arm

Cash Game Pitcher of the Day

Top-Tier Pitchers

Cheap Pitchers

Fade of the Day

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Shortstop

Third Basemen

Outfielders

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Monkey Knife Fight Play of the Night

Monkey Knife Fight Play of the Night

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

Our Company

©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

Queue

©2024 WIN DAILY^®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.