DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 7/12

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We finally get some baseball after a four-day break and I simply can’t contain my excitement to play some DFS. Getting right back into it with pitching is all I could ask for and we have a fascinating slate ahead of us here. With this being the first day back after the break, there are some funky things happening. There’s still a handful of pitchers who haven’t even been announced yet and it appears many managers aren’t even re-setting their rotations. That’s why this article is full of value plays and it’s time to get right back into the grind! 

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Cash Game Pitcher of the Day 

Caleb Smith, MIA vs. NYM 

DK ($8,600)   FD ($8,000) 

I rarely recommend a guy below $10,000 as the cash game pitcher of the day but it’s hard to ignore Smith’s floor in a matchup like this. What gives him such a nice floor is his K upside, with Smith recording at least six Ks in 11 of his 13 starts while pitching at least five innings in 12 of those fixtures. That has led to him scoring at least 30 FanDuel points in all 11 of those games, which is an incredible mark from a player barely cracking $8,000.

The Mets are not a matchup we need to worry about either, with New York ranking 18th in runs scored, 17th in K rate and middle of the pack in wOBA and xwOBA. An average offense like that will likely struggle in Marlins Park, which ranks as the best pitcher’s park in the Majors. That’s why Smith is pitching to a 1.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP at home this season while providing an 11.9 K/9 rate.  

GPP Pitchers 

Mike Fiers, OAK vs. CWS 

DK ($8,500)   FD ($8,400)  

Fiers has seen a major increase in price over recent weeks and it’s easy to see why. Not only has Fiers allowed three runs or fewer in 13 straight starts, he’s actually pitching to a 2.11 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over his last 11 starts. That’s simply elite production and it’s clear that he’s thriving in a pitcher’s haven like Oakland Coliseum. While his strikeouts have been lacking in that span, facing a White Sox team that ranks 23^rd in K rate adds to his intrigue. That’s not the only way they struggle, with Chicago sitting 25^th in runs scored and 22^nd in wOBA. Fiers is also projected to enter this game as a –190 favorite.  

Yonny Chirinos, TB at BAL 

DK ($8,400)   FD ($6,800) 

When is Chirinos going to get the respect he deserves? This $6,800 price tag on FanDuel is downright insulting, as he should be above $8,000 on both sites. The Tampa Bay righty is currently pitching to a 3.15 ERA and 0.99 WHIP so far this season. Those are All-Star numbers, as Chirinos has only allowed more than four runs once all season. Four runs seem like a tough task for an offense like the Orioles too, with Baltimore ranking 21^st in K rate, 26^th in runs scored, 27^th in OPS and 29^th in xwOBA. In two starts against the Orioles this season, Chirinos has completed 12.1 innings while allowing just three runs and 10 baserunners. Vegas agrees, making the Rays a –155 favorite in this matchup.  

Danny Duffy, KC vs. DET 

DK ($6,800)   FD ($7,900)  

This will undoubtedly cause some controversy in our Slack discussion for Gold members because our staff has been split on this guy all season long. I’ve been somewhere in the middle but he’s tough to fade in a matchup like this. The simple fact is, Duffy is a league-average pitcher in a supreme matchup. That automatically puts him in play at this sort of price because the Tigers are the worst offense in baseball.

In fact, the Motor City Kitties currently rank last in both runs scored and OBP while sitting 29^th in both K rate and wOBA. Duffy has been solid this season too if you take out a game at Texas and versus Boston, with the southpaw pitching to a 3.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over his other 11 starts. That’s fine for a guy facing such a bad offense, with Duffy entering this game as a –150 favorite.  

Cheap Pitcher of the Day 

Chase Anderson, MIL vs. SF 

DK ($6,300)   FD ($6,500) 

This price is simply too cheap for someone with so much in his favor. The biggest variable for Anderson is this matchup, with the Giants ranking 27^th in runs scored, 28th in OBP and 29^th in OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. That’s a recipe for anyone to succeed, especially a solid pitcher like Anderson. The Milwaukee righty is pitching to a 3.54 ERA and 1.17 WHIP dating back to 2017, despite being inconsistent this season. Anyone with that sort of potential is definitely worth a shot, particularly against a putrid offense like this. That doesn’t even take into consideration that Anderson enters this game as a –190 favorite.   

Also, don’t overlook Dinelson Lamet on FanDuel. The Padres righty has always been good when healthy and his $5,600 price tag on FD makes no sense. What makes it even more bizarre is the fact that he’s the third-highest priced pitcher on DraftKings at $9,800. Any time you see a $4,200 difference, you have to consider him on the cheaper site.  

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

Caleb Smith/Jason Vargas Over 10.5 Combined Strikeouts

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You know we already love Smith with his write-up in our cash game section but Vargas hasn’t been shabby himself. In fact, the Mets lefty is pitching to a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his last 12 starts and gets to face a Marlins offense who ranks last in wOBA, runs scored and OPS. That should make it a relatively easy task for these guys to combine for 11 Ks.