With a full slate of games today, PrizePicks has really brought the heat. We have both some solid pitchers on the hill, but we also have some absolutely gas cans. With that, we’ll be able to target some pitching projections as well as some hitting ones.
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Even in the Orioles’ first win yesterday they still put up little offense, scoring just 2 runs while striking out 7 times. On the year, no team is striking out a higher clip than the Orioles at a nearly 34% clip. This Orioles team is not a good one and is one that we’ll be able to target on a consistent basis with pitchers. While they put up some decent power numbers vs. lefties last year, they also struck at a 26% rate.
If we look at Lauer, he actually strikes out righties at a higher clip than he does lefties and should face a lineup filled with right-handed bats. Everything points to Lauer having a solid game today. I like the Over on this PrizePicks projection tonight.
If you read my Stack City article today, you know the Cardinals are one of my favorite teams to stack today. With a matchup vs. Daniel Lynch tonight, they’re facing a kid who has shown a ton of struggle at the Major League level so far. In his debut season last year, Lynch was hit hard by righties. They had a 46% hard-hit rate and a .201 ISO.
With the Cardinals, we start with Arenado. He’s off to a super-hot start this season with 7 RBIs and 2 homers through his first 12 at-bats. Until he slows down or is in a bad matchup, I’m going to continue to use him in both DFS and PrizePicks. I’m going with the Over on this projection.
O’Neill gets the same matchup as Arenado tonight and it’s great. On the surface, O’Neill has underwhelmed to start the year. He has just 2 hits through his first 3 games, with 1 being a homer. His breakout game is coming and there’s a great chance it’s tonight. He’s been putting the ball in play almost every at-bat and has multiple barrels. Even though he has only 2 hits, he’s still extremely productive with 6 RBIs under his belt. I love this matchup for O’Neill tonight and I’m going with the Over.
George Spring is off to a torrid start this year. Through his first 4 games he has 2 homers, 5 runs scored, and 4 RBIs. He also has an outstanding 67% hard-hit rate. When making contact, he’s squaring up just about every pitch. There’s little about this matchup with Nestor Cortes that scares me tonight.
Cortes flirted with disaster against righties all year as they had a 52% flyball rate. Anytime you put that many balls in the air you’re asking for trouble. Springer is a crusher of lefties and he’ll continue that trend tonight. Can he make it three straight games with a homer tonight? I think so! I’m going with the Over here as well.
My final pick of the day takes me to Minnesota as the Twins face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Andrew Heaney. The Same Andrew Heaney that gave up a 45% flyball and hard-hit rate to righties last season. The same Andrew Heaney that gave up a .252 ISO to righties last season. When I think of Heaney, I think of home runs as he gave up 29 of them last year.
What better player to target him with than Byron Buxton? Buxton is also off to a piping hot start, with 3 homers through his first 4 games. After tonight, we’ll be saying 4 homers through his first 5 games as that homer gets us over the 8.5 fantasy points tonight. I’m going with the Over here as well with the PrizePicks projection.
We have a great slate of games tonight with some hot hitters facing bad pitching. I’m going to 100% try to take advantage of these spots today on PrizePicks.
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Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
For the first time all season, we don’t have any slates outside of the main slate that are over three games, so the focus is going to be on the nine-game slate tonight. We have some solid pitching options today, although they could be a lot worse than most of yesterday’s choices. We’ll also have an addition at the end of the article for the first time so let’s dig into the MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 4/12 to find green screens!
I can sense I might be under the field on Darvish already, although he did throw 92 pitches in his first start. That is an advantage over plenty of other pitchers but Darvish is coming off an uneven year last year and he didn’t exactly erase a lot of fears in his first turn this year. His xFIP from that start was over 6.00, the walks outnumbered the strikeouts, and the hard-hit rate was 40%. He only generated a 10.9% swinging-strike rate which if it held (I know, one start), would be the lowest since 2014. Knowing that Darvish was worse against lefties last year doesn’t help in the matchup either because the Giants could put up five lefties in their lineup. Darvish gave up a .304 wOBA against the left side last year and it’s also worth at least pointing out that on the road in 65 IP, he had a 5.54 ERA, 4.94 FIP, and a .339 wOBA. Granted, San Francisco isn’t a hitter’s haven but these are all still concerning points and paths to failure at the salary.
It wasn’t all bad for Darvish in the first start because his slider generated a 40% whiff rate and his splitter was at 50%, although he only threw the splitter six times. That was the pitch that got two of his strikeouts and he threw 16 of those pitches combined to the left side. That does help against a lineup that should have plenty of lefties and the Giants have started in the bottom 10 in OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and average. Darvish feels like a pitcher that I’m going to struggle with a little bit this season, but I’m not super happy to pay this price even though he’d have an inside track to throw 100 pitches if things are going alright.
Garcia pitched 155.1 innings last season and flashed some serious potential with a K rate over 26% and an xFIP under 4.00 along with a barrel rate of 7.3%. With some of the movement on his pitches, that isn’t a surprise and his cutter was ridiculous last year. He only threw it 22.6% of the time last year but it generated a 42% whiff rate and only allowed a .221 wOBA and .175 average. If that wasn’t enough, his slider was almost identical in whiff rate and was even better in wOBA at .154 and average at .133. His CSW was 29.7% and the swinging-strike rate was 13.4%, both strong numbers for his first full season and there’s reason to think he could just naturally grow as a pitcher at a young age.
Now, that doesn’t mean there aren’t some hangups here. As great as his slider was last year, he threw all of 22 against lefty hitters. He was extremely heavy with his fastball to the left side and that was his wort pitch with a .379 wOBA and only a 19.1% whiff rate. That feeds into why lefties got him last year for a .353 wOBA, .282 average, 1.61 HR/9, and a 4.09 xFIP. The Astros have the access to the numbers I do and then some so the hope would be making the fastball better and achieving a better mix against the left side. It’s important to note that the D-Backs can throw out eight lefty hitters so there are some concerns here to be sure. The hope would be that Arizona continues to hit the lowest average in the league against righty pitching and Garcia is more talented than the hitters he’s facing.
We do have nine games but there is not a plethora of pitching. Andrew Heaney was a mess last year, Yusei Kikuchi and Nestor Cortes both face tough tasks, and Eric Lauer is pretty pricey. However, we do have a fair amount of pitchers in the mid-range that have some paths to success and Sandoval checks that box. Something that makes trends from this season easier to buy into is if they match the 2021 season and Miami led the league in strikeout rate against lefties at 27.5%. That was almost two percent higher than the Cubs at second. It is only 37 plate appearances and they did face Carlos Rodon, but the Marlins have a 43.2% K rate early on and that could be something to exploit. Sandoval had a 25.9% K rate through 87 IP last year and an xFIP of 3.79, both strong numbers. The barrel rate was only 6.1% and what was very impressive was the 15.2% swinging-strike rate and the 31% CSW. If he had been able to hold those ratios through the innings to qualify for the end-of-year awards, the SwStr% would have been sixth and the CSW% would have been tied for seventh. While the sample size isn’t the be-all, end-all, it’s hard not to acknowledge what Sandoval was putting up.
Sandoval did allow a .311 wOBA and 4.10 FIP to righties so there could be some slight regression coming his way, but the WHIP was 1.45 with a .308 BABIP and the HR/9 was only 1.06. The biggest shift for Sandoval came in dialing his four-seam way back to just 24.3% and the changeup was his primary pitch was 29.6%. It came with a 51.4% whiff rate, .213 wOBA, and it generated 56 of 94 strikeouts. Miami finished 23rd against the changeup last year and that’s another trend that has continued since they are 26th to start the year. The Marlins may have added Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia to their lineup but they are not enough to totally change the dynamic, even if they improve it. Sandoval is priced at a point where it’s worth finding out if he can replicate his success in 2021.
Spring Training is always hard to gauge as far as what is real, why matters, and what can be labeled as who cares. One aspect that always will get my attention is increased velocity, especially from pitchers that go to Drvieline Baseball. They have a lengthy history of increasing velocity for pitchers and the Giants are very hooked into the data-drive approach that the company does. Cobb has been sitting around 95 on his four-seam after it average 92.7 MPH last year and he’s touched 97 multiple times. This is a big deal not only for that pitch itself but how it plays and sets up the splitter. When he was sitting around 92 MPH with the four-seam, that was only about a 4 MPH difference from the splitter. Now it’s a much bigger gap and it makes life harder on the hitter, and the split-finger generated a 35.2% whiff rate last year while these two pitches combined for 88 of 98 strikeouts for Cobb. Even without the added velocity, the swinging-strike rate was still 11.2% and the CSW was 30%.
The splits were pretty even for Cobb last year and both sides whiffed over 23% with an edge against righties, not to mention his FIP and xFIP were under 2.90 to the right side of the plate. San Diego is going to have 4-5 righties and last year, he used the four-seam more to the left side of the plate. If the new velocity carries over, Cobb has a better chance to improve on the 14% whiff rate to the left side of the plate. Now, the Padres have been strong against righties to start the year as they are in the top 12 in wOBA, wRC+, and OBP so this is still a dangerous offense. With Cobb being so cheap, there is still plenty of upside to chase and see how this new pitch plays out because Cobb is a much more exciting pitcher.
This play is going to look even more appealing if Mike Trout is out again tonight (he was scratched last night) and this is a Ghost special tonight. Luzardo was dealt to Miami last year and there’s no getting around his numbers were pretty rough, even when you consider the 4.84 xFIP was lower than the 6.61 ERA he posted over 95.1 IP. The walk rate was 11%, the barrel rate was 10.1%, and the flyball rate was over 40%. So why are we sitting here talking about him? Increased velocity, kids. Not only is Luzardo up around 2-3 MPH across the board on his pitches, but his last spring start also went four innings and he leaned into his curve for a 48% usage rate (41% CSW) and his four-seam averaged 97.3 MPH. It’s great to see the curve be used even more than the 28.6% he did last year because it had a 42.4% whiff rate, 55 strikeouts, and a .260 wOBA. That was despite his sinker/four-seam/changeup getting hammered for wOBA’s over .375, which says a lot about that curve. The Angels were mostly average against lefties last year and are better suited to hit them this year, so Luzardo is the most speculative of the bunch in the mid-range. You’re taking a chance that his spring carries over but the raw talent for Luzardo has always been there. If he’s throwing harder now, it could be what pushes him to get things to click.
Honorable Mention – I don’t think I have to go here, but Tucker Davidson showed at least some interesting metrics in his 20 IP for the Braves last year. The K rate was over 23%, the xFIP was 4.42 against a 3.60 ERA, and the HR/9 was 1.35. However, it is just 20 IP and the barrel rate was 12.3% with a hard-hit rate of over 40%. I feel it makes more sense to chase the upside of other pitchers here.
I wouldn’t think of touching Hudson on FD since he’s the *checks notes*…..*checks again*….the second-most expensive player on that site? I’m not even in love over on DK because over the past two seasons, Hudson has pitched 47.2 innings with a K rate under 21%, a swinging-strike rate of 6.1%, and a 22.1% CSW. That’s not to say he doesn’t have some talent but this is not the pitcher you want when you’re looking for strikeouts. What Hudson does extremely well is generate ground balls at a career rate of 57.6% and his sinker is used 45.8% for just a .213 wOBA and his barrel rate over his career is just 5.3%. The career launch angle is just four degrees which helps him an awful lot as well, and the Royals are a solid if unspectacular offense.
Before today’s outburst, Kansas City was in the bottom 10 against righties through a lot of the offensive categories we value but they are second in fly-ball rate. Something will have to give there and in 2021, they were 16th in ground ball rate so I don’t think KC stays this high. This offense is mostly the same outside of the addition of Bobby Witt Jr. (Adalberto Mondesi could be considered an addition as well, but you get the idea) and they should tend to be righty-heavy with about six in the lineup. Hudson needs that with his career splits because lefties have a .323 wOBA, 5.11 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, and the hard-hit rate goes to 40.9%. As long as the Royals remain mostly righties, Hudson is on the board and could be the most popular SP2 on DK.
Note – I wanted to make the case for either Daniel Lynch with his pedigree or Alexander Wells since he’s just $4,000 ON DK (we always need to look to extract value if a starter is $4,000 on DK) but I can’t build a path for either pitcher. Lynch could get things to click but until he shows his four-seam/changeup combo can do better than giving up wOBA’s over .420, you can’t trust him. That’s especially true against righty-power, which the Cardinals have plenty of.
Thanks to Brian for reminding me that I did this section last year because truth be told, I forgot I did it. The first team I’m looking to attack isn’t going to make him happy because the Houston Astros get to face Madison Bumgarner and the Astros can do some serious damage against the veteran lefty. MadBum had an xFIP over 8.00 in his first start and gave up a .323 wOBA, 5.03 xFIP, and a 1.35 HR/9 against the right side of the plate. He’s using the cutter a lot again and Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman were all positive players against that pitch last season on top of them having at least a .337 wOBA last year against lefty pitching. We can look at Aledmys Díaz and Jeremy Pena for value and don’t be afraid to mix in the lefties of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Bumgarner allowed a HR/9 over 1.90 last year to lefties and both Alvarez and Tucker stand out as two of the top three cutter hitters on Houston and were in the top 10 in the entire league. Both hitters had an ISO of at least .249 so the LvL matchup is not one to fear and if Bumgarner gets lit up, he won’t last long anyway. On a larger slate, these lefties won’t get much traction I’m betting and the Astros as a whole are just far too cheap.
I’m also heading right back to the well on the Blue Jays, even though Nestor Cortes had some strong numbers on the surface for the Yankees last season. Three things stand out in the profile for Cortes and it’s the 51.5% fly-ball rate, 23.7 degrees launch angle, and the xFIP of 4.18 compared to his 2.90 ERA across 93 IP last year. The launch angle is right under what is a fly ball by the MLB definition and 23.7 is still a line drive. Pitchers don’t want to be on this end of a bad flyball rate against the Jays no fewer than five Jays last year had a wOBA over .400 and an ISO over .210 against lefty pitching. Teoscar Hernandez, Alejandro Kirk (60 PA but still), Bo Bichette, Vlad Jr., and George Springer all mashed lefties last year, and Santiago Espinal and Lourdes Gurriel were both over .310 for their wOBA as well. Springer is the only player of the bunch that had a K rate over 21% so these guys weren’t missing that often and Cortes leans on a four-seam/cutter mix. Vlad finished second in the league against the fastball and on the Jays, Springer, Hernandez, Bichette, and Espinal were all in the top seven of the team. They were mostly ignored last night and that could be the case again, but they won’t be in my lineups.
Honorable Mention
Rockies vs Rangers Game Stack (Cron, Bryant, and Joe from Colorado/Semien, Seager, and Brad Miller from Texas)
Dodgers vs Twins Stack (Turner, Freeman, Muncy, Betts, Lux/Buxton, Correa, Sanchez, and Polanco are interesting against Heaney)
Braves vs Patrick Corbin (They didn’t look as great against lefties as I thought they might but Ozuna, Albies, Riley would lead the pack)
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Starting Rotation 4/12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
MLB Is back and we have some solid picks for PrizePicks today. Today’s slate of games is a solid one that is void of good pitching. So that means we should have some great batter props to attack. And boy do we!
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Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
The Angels will be one of my favorite teams to stack tonight in regards to DFS. They’re facing a pitcher tonight in Elieser Hernandez who gives up a ton of contact, and a healthy amount of it is hard contact. Hernandez had a 36.8% hard-hit rate last year, tops among all pitchers throwing today. He also gave up 13 homers in just 51 innings of work. That’s a pretty torrid pace and one we’ll want to attack.
I plan on doing that with Ohtani tonight. There’s a very real chance he takes Hernandez deep tonight. Just using last season’s numbers, Ohtani had a .296 ISO and a .392 wOBA vs. right-handed pitching. With a very hittable one on the mound tonight for the Marlins, it’s just a matter of how hard and how far Ohtani’s hits will go tonight. I’m going with the Over on this fantasy score projection from PrizePicks as I think Ohtani takes Hernandez deep tonight.
Josh Rogers is arguably the worst pitcher on tonight’s slate. He gets torched by right-handed hitting, to the tune of a .286 ISO last season. Righties had a 49% fly-ball rate and a 41% hard-hit rate. We target Rogers with righties. I’ll be locking Ozuna into my DFS lineups tonight, but I also love the projection on PrizePicks.
Ozuna has yet to hit one out of the park this season, but it’s coming. He’s been hitting the ball extremely hard, with a 61.5% hard-hit rate this season. His loft is there as well as he has a 25-degree launch angle. It’s only a matter of time before he takes one deep. With a matchup vs. a below-average pitcher tonight, it very well could happen tonight. I love the Over here.
The Blue Jays head to New York tonight with a matchup vs. the Yankees and Jameson Taillon. Of all the pitchers on the mound tonight, Taillon is number 2 in terms of home runs given up in 2021. It’s not hard to give up that many home runs when you give up a 48% flyball rate. This is a great spot for Guerrero tonight.
Last year against righties he had an extremely high ISO of .310 and a wOBA of .423. He’s one of the best hitters in the game and when he’s in a positive matchup like tonight, there’s always a chance for an extra-base hit. I’m not normally a BvP guy, but Guerrero has great numbers against Taillon. He’s in a great spot tonight and I’m siding with the Over on this PrizePicks projection.
Dylan Bundy is a pitcher that is truly hard to figure out. He has really good stuff but has never been able to consistently use it. Year in and year out, Bundy continues to have xFIPs greater than 4. He’s always going to give up some runs, and because of that, I’ll leverage the Mariners’ top hitter to target that run total.
Haniger has come out of the gates on fire this year. Through 3 games in the 2022 season, Haniger has 2 homers to go with 5 RBIs and 2 runs scored. He’s averaging more than 2 Runs + RBIs per game to start the year and I don’t think that Bundy will be able to slow him down. I’m siding with the Over here as well.
We’re onto the first Monday of the 2022 season. The pitching gods have supplied us with some bad pitching tonight, meaning we have some great hitting spots. The above projections are really the ones that I think we can target with a high level of confidence.
Whether it’s for PrizePicks or DFS, make sure you’re reading all of our great MLB content.
Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
MLB Is back and we have some solid picks for PrizePicks today. It’s the first weekend of baseball and it’s a loaded Saturday! We have games starting at 1pm EST going all the way through 10pm!.
Not already a PrizePicks member? Sign up today using the button below and you’ll get a bonus match of 100% up to $100. And to top it off, we’ll give you a free month of Win Daily Gold ($50 value).
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
I love the matchup for the Reds today. Through three seasons, Kyle Wright has really struggled at the Major League level. Last season in a brief stint he pitched to a 9.95 ERA and an xFIP over 8. He’s one of the Braves’ biggest weaknesses this season and when he’s on the mound, there’s a strong chance they’ll lose. I plan on using the Reds tonight in DFS and on PrizePicks. With India leading off, he’ll set the table and score at least a run tonight, maybe 2. I’m going with the Over on this number.
As I noted above, I’m a big fan of the Reds tonight. You won’t hear that from me often, so you know how good of a spot they are in tonight. Wright is a sinkerball pitcher and that fits right into Votto’s wheelhouse. Over the last few seasons, Votto has a .292 ISO against right-handed sinkers and a .485 wOBA. I wouldn’t be surprised if Votto takes Wright deep tonight. I like the Over here.
For those that followed me last season, I have an affinity for stacking against Jordan Lyles. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher and doesn’t miss many bats. Last season he gave up a career-high 38 homers. Anytime he’s on the mound, the opposing team has a great chance of taking him deep. I love the Over here on Franco today. This kid has power and should get multiple hits today vs. a bad pitcher and even worse bullpen.
In DFS today, stacking the Cardinals is a priority for me. They get to take on a pitcher in Mitch Keller who was pretty bad last season. Keller had a SIERA pushing 5 last season and also missed few bats. Hitters had an 82% contact right. With O’Neill today, we should get someone who has the potential to take Keller deep. He’s a core to my stack today because of his amazing matchup. I will also heavily use him on PrizePicks and side with the Over here.
We have a full slate of games today and plenty of hitters in great spots. I laid out my favorites and feel great about the spots they are in.
Whether it’s for PrizePicks or DFS, make sure you’re reading all of our great MLB content.
Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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