It’s Friday and that means we have a solid slate for some MLB props to play on PrizePicks. We have some great places for offense tonight and I’ll be putting my focus there.
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While Steven Matz has pitched fairly well this season, I really like this spot for Tommy Pham tonight. Even though the Reds offense has been silent, Pham hasn’t and continues to hit the ball well. Over his last 23 at-bats, Pham has 3 barrels and 11 hard-hit balls. So he’s pretty close to a 50% hard-hit rate. 2 of those hard hits have also left the ballpark. The Reds have an implied run total of 4 today. They’ll get their 4 runs and Pham will be a big part of it. I like the Over on this PrizePicks projection.
I absolutely love this spot for Alvarez tonight. Ross Stripling is making just his second start of the year. He’s someone that I’ve always enjoyed chasing homers against and that’s what we can do here with Alvarez. Stripling had HR/9 over 2 in both 2020 and 2021.
Alvarez on the year has absolutely crushed right-handed pitching, with a .625 ISO in 19 plate appearances. Alvarez should see a healthy amount of change-ups today. Over the last few years, he has a .206 ISO against this pitch for an average distance of over 320 feet. Alvarez is my home run call of the day and I’m going to side with the Over on this projection tonight from PrizePicks.
The Guardians are one of my favorite spots for offense tonight against Jameson Taillon and the Guardians’ offense always starts with Ramirez. Taillon’s advanced metrics tell us he’s due for a blowup. His EV is up and so is his barrel %. Add in the fact that the wind is blowing out to right tonight, we have ourselves a chance to watch Ramirez take Taillon DEEP.
If we look at Ramirez, he’s off to just an incredible start to the year. He’s already up to 20 RBIs and his average is sitting at .430. At some point, he’ll cool off. It just won’t be at the hands of Taillon. I like the Over here.
Corey Seager is due for some positive regression. Last year against righties Seager had an ISO of .211. This year it’s sitting at 0. Tonight he gets to take on a pitcher that has struggled so far to start his Major League career. Oller, albeit in very small sample size, has given up a .778 ISO to lefties.
This is as good of a spot that Seager has seen all year and one that screams breakout for his new squad. It also helps that Oller throws a sinker and Seager has historically done well against them. I’m siding with the Over on this PrizePicks number.
We don’t often use Rockies hitters outside of Coors, but this is a really nice spot for Cron tonight. I really like Skubal a great deal as a pitcher and when it eventually clicks full-time for him, he’s going to be a stud. He’s just not quite there yet. His biggest weakness has been pitching to righties as they’ve had a .255 ISO against him during his brief career.
Cron has very dominant splits as he crushes southpaws. This sets up poorly for Skubal. While it’s still very early, Cron has a .500 ISO against southpaws to start the 2022 campaign. If the Rockies do any damage tonight, Cron will be the catalyst. I like the Over here.
These are some of my favorite props tonight. If you’re looking for other picks, I’d recommend focusing on bats from the Rangers, Indians, and lefty power from Houston.
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Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
It’s Wednesday and we have a solid slate for some MLB props to play on PrizePicks. We have some great places to attack tonight on both the pitching and hitting fronts.
Not already a PrizePicks member? Sign up today using the button below and you’ll get a bonus match of 100% up to $100. And to top it off, we’ll give you a free month of Win Daily Gold ($50 value).
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
In order for Paddack to get to this number today, he’ll need to get to 5 K’s and I just don’t’ see it. While the Royals aren’t a powerhouse lineup, they also aren’t a bad lineup. They’re actually a pretty patient one, as evidenced by their low 16.7% strikeout rate on the year against righties. If we couple that with Paddack’s 15% K rate in his first start, we just see that 5 is a tall task for him tonight. I’m going with the Under on this projection on PrizePicks tonight.
Opposite to Paddack, we have a pitcher with a higher K rate facing a team with a high K rate. Do I think that Lynch will have some challenges tonight? Yeah, he’s going to give up some runs. But I also think he’s going to get his fair share of K’s. On the year, the Twins are striking out close to 27% of the time against lefties.
Although Lynch has been giving up some flyballs and homers in his young career, he’s also shown some really nice K upside. In his first start against the Cards he gave up 3 homers, but he also struck out 7. Lynch gets his 5 K’s tonight and we’re going with the Over on this projection.
As of writing this, the Red Sox/Blue Jays game currently has an implied run total of over 9. Both starters come into this game having the 2 highest xFIPs of all the pitchers on the hill tonight. Yes, Berrios has struggled so far. He’s given up just 3 homers in 5 innings and this Red Sox lineup can absolutely get to him.
On the other side, Pivetta is not someone we should be scared of. He’s given up 3 homers in 7 innings. This game has the potential to be a high-scoring game and the fireworks will start early. I love the over on the first inning projection.
A pitcher that likes to give up homers vs. a hitter that likes to hit homers. What could go wrong? My home run call of the night goes to Vladimir Guerrero tonight. This is going to be a really tough spot for Pivetta tonight. He’s already given up 3 homers on the year in short work and is going to face one of the most potent offenses in the game.
Everything about this matchup tonight screams for Guerrero to do well. The two main pitches he’ll see are a low 90’s fastball and a slider. Both pitchers are ones that Guerrero does well against. I love the over on this PrizePicks projection.
The same matchup for Bo Bichette tonight that Guerrero has. While he doesn’t quite have the same power numbers that Guerrero has, Bichette is still someone that should be feared at the plate. If we date back all the way to last season, Bichette has a .177 ISO against right-handed pitchers so there’s definitely some power potential there.
I’m not normally a BvP guy, but Bichette has done well against Pivetta in his career. He has 2 homers in 14 ABs and has a 1.071 OPS against him. Similar to Guerrero, I love the Over on this PrizePicks projection.
If you didn’t notice by my picks, I love this spot for Toronto. They should put up some big numbers and I’ll have them in both my DFS lineups and PrizePicks picks.
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Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
It’s Taco Tuesday and a full night of MLB props to play on PrizePicks. We have some great places to attack tonight on both the pitching and hitting fronts.
Not already a PrizePicks member? Sign up today using the button below and you’ll get a bonus match of 100% up to $100. And to top it off, we’ll give you a free month of Win Daily Gold ($50 value).
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
Robbie Ray has really looked off to start the year. His average FB velocity is way down this year to just 92.6 mph, compared to 94.6 last year. While 2 mph may not seem like a big difference, it 100% is. It’s the difference between an average fastball and a great fastball. All other metrics are also down for Ray, including just a 16% K rate to start the year.
Tonight he gets the difficult task of facing a rebuilt Rangers lineup that is extremely dangerous. They’ve also been great against lefties. Through their first 2 weeks, they have a near 1.000 OPS and just a 16.7% K rate vs. lefties. I just don’t see Ray lasting long enough tonight to get to 7 K’s. I’m going with the Under on this PrizePicks projection.
Is Cole Irvin an above-average pitcher? Eh, that’s debatable. Is he in a great matchup tonight? Yes, he definitely is. The Orioles have been absolutely awful to start the year against lefties. They’re striking out more than a third of their at bats and have hit for absolutely no power with an ISO of just .077.
If we date back to last season, Irvin has 4 strikeouts or greater in 4 of his last 5 starts. He has the K ability in him and this matchup tonight will help him find it. I like the Over on this projection.
You ride Schwarber when he’s hot, you sit him when he’s cold. By going with the under here, we’re essentially sitting him tonight. Schwarber is in a pretty rough stretch right now and tbh, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sits tonight against the lefty so you’ll want to hold off on submitting this pick until lineups are out.
Over his last 26 ABs, Schwarber has just 3 hits and 9 strikeouts. What’s also fascinating is that he also has a negative launch angle. So even when he is making contact, it’s just going right into the ground. The Phillies have a great matchup for guys on the right side, but on the left side, they’ll have some challenges. I just don’t see how the lefty Schwarber gets to this number tonight. I’m going with the Under.
Machado faces another lefty tonight and so far this season, this has been a money matchup for him. On the year, his ISO is up to .600 against southpaws and his hard-hit rate is up to 56%. Over the last week, Machado has had 12 hits in 28 ABs with 7 runs scored. The guy is on fire right now and until he cools and is put in a bad matchup, I’ll go with the Over. I’m picking the Over tonight on this number from PrizePicks.
Nick Castellanos is one of my favorite hitters on the night. Playing in Coors tonight, Castellanos gets the platoon advantage against a pitcher that has struggled to start the year. Through 2 games, Kyle Freeland has an xFIP over 5 with the majority of the damage coming from righties.
Righties have a .235 ISO against him so far this season. If we look at Castle, his ISO against lefties so far on this young year is sitting at a .429 and a wOBA of .545. He’s in a great spot to smash tonight. I love the Over on this number.
Tonight we have a fun slate with some great props. If you’re looking to take advantage of some spots, I’d look to righties from the Phillies and Rangers. Can Machado keep up his torrid pace? I certainly hope so because I’m banking on it tonight.
Whether it’s for PrizePicks or DFS, make sure you’re reading all of our great MLB content.
Good luck and hope to see some green bars tonight!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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