We get the normal huge Friday night slate with 13 games but it feels smaller with the pitching options at hand. It tapers off fairly quickly as 14 of 26 options tonight are in the Punt Range, and that’s going to be tougher to navigate. Let’s chat about the obvious picks at the top and see what else we can find in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/12!
I really don’t know what else to say with Mad Max as the guy is just defying everything we should be able to say about pitchers at his age. He’s sporting a K rate over 32% on the season and has a 1.98 ERA and a 2.45 FIP, not to mention a 15.2% swinging-strike rate. Both sides of the plate are under a .280 wOBA, both sides strike out at least 29.9% of the time, and the more righties he gets to face, the better. The K rate climbs to 34.3% and the FIP is 1.17 in part because his slider is excellent. It has a whiff rate over 40% but he’s only using it against the right side. Pretty much every game until the end of the season is a big game for the Mets, especially with the Phillies on the other side and Mad Max threes in those contests. He costs a lot, but he should.
I know that he’s been volatile but this is about the best spot he can have and it’s possible the ownership difference between him and Scherzer could be exploited. We’ll have to see on that one but Rodon draws Pittsburgh at home and the Pirates offense away from PNC Park has a 27.7% K rate against lefty pitching. They are also 24th or worse in OBP, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ and even though they rank 15th in ISO, San Francisco should help control that a little bit. Rodon’s slider has a 39.1% whiff rate and 61 strikeouts while the four-seam is at 25.8% and 95, and that’s bad news for the Pirates. They rank in the bottom four against both pitch types on the season and despite some issues, Rodon has a K rate over 31% on the year and he’s been at his best in San Francisco with a 1.76 ERA, a 35.4% K rate, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 1.77 FIP/2.65 xFIP combo. I don’t think there is much separation between him and Scherzer and Rodon has the easier matchup.
I typically have some reservations with Gonsolin when he gets up to this salary, but I also bet I’m not alone and he might wind up being almost ignored. I’ve pointed it out about every time we’ve talked about him, but he does have a 3.72 xFIP compared to the 2.30 EA although Kansas City is a great spot for him to not get bit by that aspect. His K rate is over 24% and the hard-hit rate is just 22.3%, an excellent mark. Gonsolin has been able to generate a 12% swinging-strike rate while both sides of the plate are under a .265 wOBA. Most of his strikeouts have come from the splitter (51) and that’s generated a 30.4% whiff rate and just a .160 wOBA allowed. His four-seam has frankly been a bad pitch for him with a .375 wOBA but the Royals are just 18th against it. He could turn into a great GPP play that can score with the two big guns if everything goes right.
I’d be pretty surprised if Garcia isn’t popular against Oakland at home since he has a 25.5% K rate, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 3.72 xFIP. His HR/9 is a little high at 1.44 and this is the highest his HR/FB rate has ever been at 13.4%. While that is a little frustrating, his cutter is being thrown 30.2% and has a 42.7% whiff rate and a .220 wOBA. It would be nice if he leaned into the secondary stuff more because his four-seam is used 44% of the time but has a .359 wOBA. Fortunately, Oakland is just 27th when facing that pitch this year so that’s a nice help for Garcia. He’s got both sides of the plate under a .295 wOBA and even though his ERA is higher at home, the xFIP and K rates are both higher. We know that Oakland can be pesky at times but Garcia should be able to post around 18-20 points.
Honorable Mention
I pretty much never attack the Cardinals with many pitchers, let alone lefties. After all, they are first or second in OPS, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ with a K rate of just 19%. Eric Lauer righted his ship since July with an ERA under 2.80 and a wOBA under .285 but the strikeouts still haven’t come back. The only reason I’m looking here in MME formats is the Cards coming out of Coors Field could mess with the thing and lead Lauer to have a pretty strong start here. Don’t get crazy but I truly don’t mind it.
Some may point to his road ERA of 6.21 and get freaked out here, and I was concerned since he was pitching in Oakland as his home park. However, the xFIP on the road is only 3.59 and the strand rate is 56.3% which is crazy high. I don’t love the K rate dropping to just 21.1% but that feels like a little bit of noise and Boston has been striking out more lately. Montas got the first start as a Yankee out of the way and should be able to bounce back with a 25.2% K rate overall and he’s held righties to a 2.66 xFIP, a 29.2% K rate, and a wOBA under .290. Boston had five in the lineup last night and his splitter/slider combo both have a whiff rate over 32.5%. The four-seam and splitter have the most strikeouts with 99 total and the salary is totally acceptable. You just want to hope Boston continues to struggle since over the last 30 days, they have a 27.4% K rate and sit 25th or lower in OPS, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+.
He’s been a bear to get right this season but the xFIP is under 4.00 and the K rate is over 25%, which is almost all we’re looking for against the Angels. They lead the league in K rate over the course of the season at 26.9% and that’s been even worse over the past 30 days and they’re in the bottom 10th in wRC+, OBP, and wOBA. Mahle has used his fastball almost 52% of the time and it has a 28.7% whiff rate with a .291 wOBA allowed while the Angels rank 29th against that pitch. I don’t think we can ever love a 46.3% fly-ball rate but the hard-hit rate is only 29.6% and he’s sporting a .275 wOBA against the left side of the plate. Lefties also have a 26.4% K rate, a 1.13 WHP, and a 3.36 WHIP so he’s an excellent fit in any build you’re going for.
This salary feels too low and like it was an overreaction to a bad game against the Dodgers. I don’t think the Washington offense is going to be compared to LA anytime soon and we can start to get a picture of what they will look like without Soto and Bell. Since the trade, they rank 17th in wRC+, 15th in wOBA, 20th in ISO, and 16th in OPS, and they still do have a low K rate of just 19%. The walk rate has dropped under 5% and Clevinger is serviceable with 22.9% for the K rate and a 4.01 xFIP to go along with an 11.7% swinging-strike rate. The splits are a mixed bag because the left side has a higher wOBA at .320 but they also have a 24.5% K rate and his four-seam is used more against that side. The whiff rate is fine at 20.3% but the wOBA is only .230 so it’s not getting hammered. This isn’t a slam dunk play, but the salary really helps much him forward to consideration.
I strongly dislike playing him this year but even I have to admit that with his salary under $7,000, we have to look at him. We expected the Milwaukee offense to be better when facing a lefty this year but that simply hasn’t happened as they rank 23rd in OPS, 22nd in OBP, ISO, 25th in wOBA, and 25th in wRC+. Perhaps most importantly, they also strike out the fourth-most at 24.8% so that should be able to push Montgomery to at least (hopefully) six strikeouts. Even without the general strikeouts this year (20.2%), the xFIP is 3.66 and he’s been a quality pitcher in real life. The right side of the plate only has a .306 wOBA and a 1.15 WHIP and his change/curveball have a whiff rate over 41%. His change still gets hit with a .323 wOBA while the curve has a .200 wOBA allowed and the most strikeouts at 42. He makes too much sense in this range given his opponent.
George Kirby – Love the talent, love what he’s been able to do, but the pitch counts haven’t been past 80 in the past three starts. He needs to be extremely efficient to hit (as he was in the last game) but the slate is too crowded to take a swing unless we know he’s not limited.
Corey Kluber – I can’t get on board with the salary and the Orioles offense has quietly been very strong over the past 30 days. They rank seventh in wRC+, eighth in wOBA, eighth in OPS, and sixth in OBP.
Michael Kopech – He’s worse against lefties with a .332 wOBA and both sides have an xFIP over 4.60 so I’m very nervous. I’ll give Kopech the fact that he whiffs the left side at 28.2% so maybe Detroit is bad enough to make him work (similar to Plesac yesterday) and he could be chalky, but he’s got a very low floor here.
D-Backs/Rockies (they’ll be chalk and are inexpensive)
Padres
Astros
Giants
Dodgers
Yankees
Blue Jays/Guardians
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
With it being Thursday, we have a small 6-game slate of MLB DFS. It’s a day slate so you’ll know whether you’ve won or lost by dinner time. Let’s win some money!
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
The Guardians somewhat disappointed last night, scoring only 3 runs vs. Drew Hutchison and the Tigers bullpen. They get an even better matchup today vs. Garrett Hill and I can’t see them disappointing 2 days in a row. Similar to last night with Hutchison, if the Guardians can stay patient at the plate they’ll get some pitches to hit. Over the last month, Hill has had an extremely high BB/9 at 4.79 and this has led to a WHIP of 1.6. He lets a ton of batters on and again, if the Guardians are patient, they’ll have a lot of runners on in this game.
Hill also gives up a combo that we look for with our MLB DFS stacks, hard hits, and flyballs. His 42% flyball rate over the last month ranks near the top of all starters today, as does his 34% hard-hit rate. His 9 barrels allowed over the last is the most of any pitcher throwing this afternoon. Hill is actually a reverse splits pitcher. He’s dominated lefties this season while struggling mightily with righties. Righties have a massive .569 slugging % vs. him and a .403 wOBA.
Core: Knowing how awful that Hill has been against righties, I’m going to start my Guardians stack with Amed Rosario and Oscar Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been lights out vs. righties over the past month, albeit a small sample size. In 15 plate appearances, he has a .333 ISO and a .523 wOBA. Even if we look at his season as a whole, he’s been way better vs. righties than lefties. With Gonzalez we have a reverse splits hitter going against a reverse splits pitcher. You love to see it. Rosario is also in a good spot to produce. Over the last month, he does have a wOBA in the mid .300’s.
Secondary Pieces: After my core, I’ll look to sprinkle in guys like Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan. While Jose Ramirez is the main attraction with this team, Gimenez and Kwan have been very solid. Gimenez is sporting a .313 average vs. righties this season and a .381 wOBA. He’s also shown some power vs. them with a .506 slugging %.
With Kwan, we won’t get much power but he gets on base. He’s coming into this one on fire, with 5 hits in his last 11 AB. He’s also scored 3 runs over the last month. I do love Ramirez, but at his current price, I will more than likely fade. His power has all but evaporated over the last week and with how good Hill has been vs. lefties, it’s just not worth the risk of spending nearly $6k for a couple of singles.
Value: Should Luke Maile get the start today at catcher, I’ll look to get him in there. He’s just $2.2k on DK today and has done well against righties when he’s been in there. Over the last month, he has a .402 wOBA vs. righties. He makes for a solid punt.
While I’ve mostly gone with the Cardinals the last couple of nights, I’m switching gears and going with the Rockies today. Dakota Hudson has been 2 different pitchers this season on the road vs. at home. At home, he’s been pitching to a 3.25 ERA. But away from Busch Stadium, he’s pitched to a massive 5.26 ERA. All of the metrics are way better for hitters vs. him on the road, with a wOBA 50 points higher, a slugging % 60 points higher, and an OBP 50 points her. Pitching in Coors today should exaggerate those numbers even further.
With Hudson, we want to focus on the righties in the Rockies lineup. Similar to Hill, he’s been a reverse splits pitcher. Righties have a slugging % more than 100 points higher than lefties and a wOBA 40 points higher. 6 of the 8 homers he’s given up this season have been to righties.
Core: I’m starting my Colorado stack today with Randal Grichuk and Brendan Rodgers. Grichuk has been one of the Rockies’ best hitters of late. Although he took an 0-5 last night, prior to that he had 13 hits in the previous 17 AB. He’s seeing the ball extremely well right now and in a plus matchup today vs. Hudson, he’s very affordable at just $4.1k on DK. Rodgers is also coming into this one hot. Over his last 15 BA, Rodgers has 9 hits including 7 hits in his last 2 games. That’s a good week for most!
Secondary/Value Pieces: After Rodgers and Grichuk, I’ll look to get in guys like Jose Iglesias, Charlie Blackmon, and Ryan McMahon. Iglesias has been really good over the last month vs. righties. Over his last 63 plate appearances vs. righties, he has a .441 wOBA. He’s very reasonably priced today at $4.2k on DK. He’s having a solid series so far with 5 hits in the 2 games.
While Blackmon and McMahon won’t have the splits advantage with Hudson, they do have the platoon advantage and have ISO’s over .200 vs. righties over the last month. I’m not going to lose sleep if I can’t squeeze them into my lineup, but they should both be productive today.
Value: One of my favorite value pieces on the board today is Elehuris Montero. Montero is red hot right now and is only $2.7k this afternoon on DK. He’s coming into this one with a 9-game hitting streak and has 5 straight multi-hit games. We aren’t going to need much from him to hit value today.
Cole Ragans really struggled with his command in his first Major League start. Through 5 innings, Ragans walked 4 hitters. That was against a more free-swinging team in the White Sox. The Astros are a much more patient team and one that has absolutely crushed lefties this season, with a .749 OPS and a .192 ISO. If Ragans struggled again today with his command, he’s going to have an extremely long/short afternoon.
The only positive that Ragans had in his first start was that he mostly induced soft contact. His hard-hit rate was just 20% and his soft-hit rate was 26%. So he gave up more soft than hard contact. He didn’t fool many hitters though as they just have a 17% chase rate.
Core: My core with the Astros stack today will be Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Altuve has been lights out vs. lefties. Over the last month, he has a .455 wOBA vs. them and a .320 ISO. He’s expensive but in a solid matchup. I love using Alvarez vs. lefties. He typically comes in under-owned because most are scared of the L/L matchup. Alvarez crushes lefties. In his last 21 plate appearances, he has a .557 wOBA and a .588 ISO.
Secondary Pieces: Other pieces I’ll look to use here will be Alex Bregman, Aledmys Diaz, and Trey Mancini if he cracks the lineup today. They’ll all have the platoon advantage this afternoon and have shown in the past they can handle southpaws. I won’t look to prioritize any of them, but if I can make them fit, I’ll absolutely do so.
Other stacks I’ll like tonight will be the Cardinals vs. German Marquez and Diamondbacks vs. Brubaker. As it stands right now, my core MLB DFS stacks will be the Rockies and Guardians. They fit extremely well together and for the Rockies playing in Coors, they’re very fairly priced today.
Make sure to check our optimizer here.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Tonight’s nine-game slate is a little bit challenging from a pitching perspective because it is very top-heavy again, but this time there is very little to be had in the mid-range and even the punts are questionable at best. It could be another slate where we have to find cheap bats to make things work out. Let’s dig into the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/10 and see which directions we need to be heading in tonight!
I do suspect that he’ll be among the most popular pitchers, if not the lead dog in ownership and it’s not hard to see why based on his season. He has a 1.73 ERA (the xFIP has concerned me all season at 3.43 but Verlander plows through that every fifth day), a 2.98 FIP, the K rate is 25.5%, and he’s still getting an 11.4% swinging-strike rate even though his four-seam is down to a 16.6% whiff rate. The slider is the best pitch as far as strikeouts with 62 and whiff rate at 35.1% but his curve has the lowest wOBA allowed at .194. He uses that one a bit more to the left side and helps explain why lefties have a .201 wOBA, a 27.5% K rate, and a 0.75 WHIP. With Texas firing off 5-6 lefties in their normal lineup and carrying the eighth-highest K rate when facing a righty at 23.4%, Verlander is a perfect fit from a lot of angles.
I’m very curious to see how the ownership on these two pitchers falls because Alcantara is a great play in his own right. He’s coming off a game where he threw a CGSO on only 105 pitches and even if he only whiffed three, Alcantara is the rare pitcher where I don’t worry about it as much. His ability to get deep into games is virtually unmatched as he leads the league in innings by 13.1 innings. It’s not like his K rate is horrific either at 23.3% and Philly is right about average in their K rate against righties at 22.4%. It’s not the best matchup he’ll ever have but he could also be half of the ownership Verlander could be and even on the road, Alcantara is only allowing a .256 wOBA and a 2.91 FIP. Oddly, the K rate comes up to over 24% and not one of his pitches is allowing a wOBA over .282. Additionally, the Phillies are just 16th against the changeup and that’s the main pitch for Alcantara with a whiff rate over 36%. This should make for a pretty interesting duo tonight.
At least for me, it’s pretty easy to rule out Sonny Gray and Nick Pivetta against the Dodgers and Braves, respectively. The only other pitcher in the Mid-Range by salary is Noah Syndergaard who gets the same elite matchup that Wheeler did last night in the Marlins. I’m never super excited for the guy because he has a 4.26 xFIP and there’s just not a trust factor there because his K rate is down to just over 18%. Granted, the salary isn’t much and the Marlins have been dreadful but it’s kind of hard to point to what Syndergaard does well. The ground ball rate might be the best aspect at 45% because the swinging-strike rate is only 10.4% and his change/four-seam duo (43% of his arsenal) both allow a wOBA of .369 or higher. That’s a little tough to swallow even in a great matchup and both sides of the plate hit hm for at least a .294 wOBA. Perhaps the Marlins offensive ineptitude covers his warts, but that is far from guaranteed.
Past Syndergaard, it really depends on just how dangerous you want to live because boy, it gets ugly fast. Everyone knows how much I hate Jose Berrios and I could see him being chalky tonight because the field will want to play Cardinals against a below-average lefty in Coors Field. Berrios Chalk is an honest to goodness nightmare for me because he just hasn’t been good at all this year. He has been unlucky to some extent with a 4.05 xFIP compared to the 5.19 ERA but his K rate has never been lower than the 21.1% he has right now outside of his rookie year. His fly-ball rate has grown to 40.8% and the swinging-strike rate is just 9.3%, another number at the lowest point of his career outside of the rookie season. He’s using the fastball more this year despite the fact it’s getting killed for a .452 wOBA allowed and eight homers. On the road this year, his road ERA is 7.50, the HR/9 is 2.50, the K rate drops to 15.1%, and the xFIP is 4.80. I mean, that is hideous.
Let’s get deeper into the muck and slime because we’re talking about Madison Bumgarner next! It takes a special kind of offense to even look in the direction of MadBum and he daws *checks notes* the Pittsburgh offense in Arizona. They have the second-highest K rate at 26.5% while sitting 29th in OBP, 26th in OPS, 17th in ISO, 26th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+. Bumgarner has a 3.96 ERA with a 4.83 xFIP which is far from great and the K rate is under 16% but the salary is right. Like most pitchers, the production has been better at home and the ERA is 3.31 with a .325 wOBA and a 1.28 WHIP. The xFIP is still 4.67 but you’re just playing the matchup and the horrid Pittsburgh offense.
If you’ve got some serious guts, Kris Bubic at least is somewhat interesting. I get it, he’s been a target for hitters for a long time but look at these last few games. He’s faced Boston, went to Yankee Stadium, went into Toronto, and he scored at least 15.9 DK points in all of those starts. The xFIP was no higher than 3.84 in any of those starts and he whiffed 16 total hitters. He’s been using the changeup a little bit more and the fastball a little less. That would be a welcome change as the changeup allows just a .313 wOBA compared to .410 for the fastball and the whiff rate is 28.3%. The White Sox are excellent against lefty pitchers but so are New York and Toronto. Chicago also lost Tim Anderson, played two games yesterday, and their season is slipping away.
Kyle Wright – We’ve been talking about it but the strikeouts just haven’t been there for a player of this salary and it’s tough to build the case he scores more than Verlander or Alcantara.
Johnny Cueto – Someone explain to me like I’m five why his salary keeps climbing? He has six strikeouts in his past 22 innings and even though he’s only given up seven earned, he’s yet to crack 16 DK because K’s are king.
Cardinals
Guardians
Rockies
Braves
Astros
Twins
Orioles
D-Backs
Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 8/10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Stack City, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Tuesday and that means we have a full slate of games. We have 28 of the 30 teams in action tonight and that means we have a plethora of options.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some stacks to use today!
Mike Minor’s Reds’ career has not gone well. He is having statistically the worst year of his career. His ERA, xFIP, BB/9, and HR/9 are all at career highs. It’s been a struggle for him and those struggles will continue tonight vs. a very solid New York Mets lineup. Over the last month, Minor has pitched to a 5.3 ERA and an xFIP north of that at 5.87. His BB/9 over that stretch is an embarrassing 6.27. No pitcher on tonight’s slate is even remotely close to that number.
One thing I want to really focus on with Minor is his HR/9. He’s giving up homers this season at just an epic pace. 2.54 HR/9 is something that we want to attack. He’s had just one game all season without surrendering a long ball. That’s bad. With Minor, we want to go all in with righties. They have a massive .646 slugging % and a .435 wOBA.
Core: My core with the Mets tonight will be Pete Alonso and Starling Marte. Both of these guys had polar opposite nights in the opener of this series last night. Marte was lights out, with a homer, a stolen base, 2 RBI, and a run scored. We should expect more of the same tonight as Marte is much better against southpaws. He has an OPS of .908 against lefties compared to just .763 vs. righties. He also has a wOBA pushing .400 vs. lefties at .392.
Alonso was a dud last night but should get back on the saddle tonight. Over the last month, he’s absolutely tortured lefties with a .474 ISO and a .676 wOBA.
Secondary Pieces: Other pieces that I really like in this stack will be Francisco Lindor, Darin Ruf, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Canha. The only reason that I don’t have Lindor in my core tonight is that he’s been better as a lefty hitter throughout his career. With batting as a righty, I’m not as laser-focused on him but he’s still in a great spot to succeed tonight.
Newly acquired Darin Ruf should get the start tonight and he has my interest at just $3k tonight. Over the last 30 days, he has a .333 ISO and a .388 wOBA vs. southpaws. The only concern with him is a pinch hit risk tonight and us only getting 2 AB out of him. That said, he should be able to do some damage in those 2 AB.
Value: Should Tomas Nido get the nod tonight behind the plate, I’ll lock him into catcher as my punt play. He’s min-priced tonight on DK and has actually been swinging a decent stick with 5 hits in his last 16 AB. He’s also fared pretty well vs. lefties over the last month, with a .333.
I expect the Braves to come out tonight fired up. They were embarrassed by the Mets this weekend, losing 4 of 5 games, and now sit 7 games out of first place. They couldn’t have asked for a better matchup tonight, going against Rich Hill. While Hill is a crafty veteran, father time may finally be catching up to the almost 43-year-old. In his last outing, which came after a month’s stint on the IL, Hill was chased after just 3 innings against the Astros.
We should expect more of the same tonight against a hungry Braves team looking to make up for a bad last week of baseball. With Hill, we want to attack him with righties. Against righties this season, he’s given up a .475 slugging % and a .345 wOBA. 8 of the 9 homers he’s given up have been to righties.
Core: I’m building my core with Braves stack around the 3 guys right at the top of the order tonight, Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson, and Austin Riley. The three of them are expensive tonight, but oh do they have some serious upside in this matchup. We’ll start with Riley who has been one of the best hitters in the game this season against lefties. On the year, he’s hitting .362 against lefties with a 1.190 OPS. That OPS is fueled by a .752 slugging %. Over the last month, he’s been just as good against lefties, with a .522 ISO and a .712 wOBA. He’ll be a lock in any Braves stack I use tonight.
While Acuna has had somewhat of an up and down year so far coming off the knee injury, he’s long crushed lefties and should succeed here tonight. His wOBA vs. lefties over the last month is a solid .347. The power numbers will come around and that could happen tonight.
Value: After my core, I’m just going to jump right to value with my Braves stack. Both Robbie Grossman and Orlando Arcia are extremely cheap tonight. Grossman is min-priced on DK and has very solid numbers vs. lefties. Over the last month, he has a .440 wOBA vs. them. He’s one of, if not the best value play on the MLB DFS board tonight. Arcia has also been solid vs. lefties, with a .300 wOBA and a .158 ISO vs. them over the last 30 days. At just $2.6k, he’s also extremely cheap tonight.
I didn’t want to go Coors with my MLB DFS stacks, but it’s really hard to pass this up. The first-place Cardinals head to Colorado tonight to take on Ryan Feltner and the Rockies. Feltner’s first “full” season in the bigs has not gone that well. He’s pitched to a 5.75 ERA so far and even though the 3.84 xFIP says he’ll show some positive regression, tonight won’t be the night that it will happen.
The Cardinals are one of the top offenses in the league and they are rolling right now. Only a handful of teams have scored more runs over the last week than the Cards and with this game being in Coors, they shouldn’t slow down. With Feltner, we’ll want to focus mostly on the lefties. Lefties have a nearly .600 slugging % vs. him this season in Coors and a .366 wOBA.
Core: Even though I want to focus on the lefties here, Nolan Arenado will still be in my core group of players in this game. Arenado spent the first 8 years of his career in Colorado and will have the narrative in his corner. Narrative always wins, always. Arenado has also just been lights out vs. righties over the last month as he has a .293 ISO and a .449 wOBA.
Next up in my core will be Nolan Gorman, Dylan Carlson, and Tommy Edman. All three of these guys will get the platoon advantage and will be hitting in sequential order. Going with a 9,1,2 stack can get us Edman and with this being Coors, there are almost always extra AB to go around.
Value Pieces: Lars Nootbar is $2.3k on DK tonight, with the platoon advantage, in Coors. That’s all you really need to know.
Other stacks I’ll like tonight will be the Cubs vs. Paolo Espino, the red-hot Phillies vs. Braxton Garrett (Garrett has been really good though, so tread with caution), and the Dodgers vs. Joe Ryan.
Make sure to check our optimizer here.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
"*" indicates required fields
